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County of Middlesex POPULATION PROJECTION, 2001 - 2026

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE NO.

1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1

2.0 POPULATION PROJECTIONS - METHODOLOGY ........................ 1

2.1 THE COHORT-SURVIVAL POPULATION PROJECTION METHOD .................. 1 2.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE CENSUS DATA ........................................................ 2 2.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CONSTITUENT MUNICIPALITIES .............. 3 2.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...................................... 4

3.0 POPULATION PROJECTIONS - RESULTS ...................................... 4

3.1 GROWTH RATES AND PATTERNS .............................................................. 4 3.2 FORECASTS- LOW, REFERENCE AND HIGH SCENARIOS .......................... 11

4.0 HOUSEHOLD SIZE .............................................................................. 16

4.1 NATIONAL TRENDS ................................................................................ 16 4.2 PROVINCIAL TRENDS ............................................................................. 16 4.3 COUNTY OF MIDDLESEX AND AREA TRENDS ......................................... 17

APPENDIX A

Detailed Projections, County of Middlesex and its Constituent Municipalities, Low, Reference and High Scenarios

APPENDIX B

Detailed Tables, County of Middlesex and its Constituent Municipalities, Reference Scenario, Births, Deaths, Migration

APPENDIX C

Place of Work, County of Middlesex and its Constituent Municipalities


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1.0 INTRODUCTION

The County of Middlesex periodically prepares twenty-five year population projections. As new Census data becomes available, projections have been prepared for successive periods using a consistent cohort survival projection approach for the County and its constituent municipalities. Previous projections utilised statistics from the respective 1986, 1991 and 1996 Census. Now, with the availability of Census data for 2001, forecasts for the 2001 to 2026 period have been prepared which reflect population trends in the County up to 2001.

2.0 POPULATION PROJECTIONS - METHODOLOGY

2.1 THE COHORT-SURVIVAL POPULATION PROJECTION METHOD

Population projections for the County and the eight constituent communities were prepared using a composite cohort survival population projection method. The sum of these projections comprise the projection for the County. The spreadsheet used calculates a population projection using a modified cohort-component technique and five year projections are produced as intermediate estimates.

Composite projections describe the direction and magnitude of the variables that affect population change. They are based on the theory that population can increase in only two ways: natural increase and net migration. The more sophisticated models provide estimates of the natural increase and net migration not just for the aggregate population, but for age cohorts within the population and this technique is usually called the "cohort survival method”. This is the technical analysis and method used for this current study and is consistent with those studies previously undertaken.

A cohort survival method ages the population of a municipality one-year at a time (incorporating age specific fertility and mortality rates), and adjusts this demographic projection with migration assumptions. It is a reasonable approach for areas with a larger population base such as the County as a whole as it allows a detailed assessment of the factors affecting population growth and permits a study of the implications of changing conditions.

The advantage to using a cohort model is that the causal dynamics underlying population change can be better understood which allows the model to deal with forces of change. For instance, these models make finer distinctions of which age groups are changing in the population mix. This finer-grained analysis is frequently very useful in estimating (for example) future demands for specific services.

The model can be unwieldy however, as it requires a large number of assumptions which are difficult to quantify for smaller geographic areas or for very small population areas. This “instability” can be mitigated as the model can be manually adjusted to account for locationally-specific conditions. Therefore, the study relies on County Staff and their local knowledge to direct the assessment of some direct or imputed assumptions that are necessary for cohort survival analyses.


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In its basic form, the cohort-survival method is very simple:

Population in the future = Current Population + Natural Increase + Net Migration

The sections that follow give some detail regarding how these three elements interact to mathematically produce a forecast of population.

Current Population

In a cohort survival method of analysis, the time interval that is projected is determined by age cohorts. The smallest time interval for which an estimate can be made is the length of time it takes all the members of an age cohort (say, everyone age 10 - 14) to pass on to the next age grouping (the 15 - 19 year-old group). Since Statistics Canada commonly aggregates their population figures in five-year cohorts, most cohort survival models run at five-year projection increments.

The cohort model includes, as inputs, 10 years’ worth of historical population data for the constituent municipalities of the County. The output provides a twenty-five year forecast for those municipalities. The County forecasts are simple aggregations of these projections.

Natural Increase

Natural increase is the difference between the number of children born and the number of people who die during one time interval. Children can only be born into the 0-4 year cohort. People, however, die in all cohorts.

Briefly, the model employs a survival rate to calculate how many persons will likely die in each cohort as the population ages. Further, the model employs a birthrate that estimates the number of babies born as the original municipal populations age. Since births and deaths statistics are not usually readily available at the local level (i.e. data is collected by Health Units that generally do not match Statistics Canada dissemination area boundaries), the study utilises the birth rate and death rate as that generated in the Province over the 1991 to 2001 period. The advantage to using the Provincial rate is that it is based on a large, stable population which may better represent births and deaths over the relatively long planning horizon.

Net Migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving in and the number of people moving out. The model employed in this analysis simply assumes that the difference between the calculated number of survivors for a given cohort over the 1991 to 2001 period and the actual number of people in that cohort counted by the Census is the net number of migrants. Like all rates and variables in this model, this figure is calculated at the cohort level

2.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE CENSUS DATA

As discussed in the introduction to this study, Census data provided by Statistics Canada was used in the preparation of the population forecasts that follow.


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The data used is presented by male and female populations categorised by five year age cohorts for the individual communities and the County. There are two important limitations inherent in this data. First, the population of any native reserves have not been included in the population forecasts as these data are not consistently reliable in the various statistics provided by Statistics Canada.

Second, the Census data, on a cohort basis, is not 100% “accurate”. For reasons of confidentiality, cohort-specific populations are reported on a “randomly rounded” basis. It is not an important consideration with very large populations, but for many small communities this means that the reported population could be “out” by perhaps as many as about 180 people. It is important to note that this is not an insignificant figure when considering the fact that, for example, the population of Newbury in 2001 is reported at 395 people. It is also important to realise that these “inaccuracies” can be unknowingly amplified over time through the use of projection models. Consequently, those projections for all the small communities that make up the County of Middlesex (i.e. Newbury), must be viewed with utmost caution.

2.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CONSTITUENT MUNICIPALITIES

Population projections for the eight constituent municipalities were prepared and aggregated to forecast the County’s population under three different scenarios;

• Low Scenario – Considers an aggregated County population in 2026 that is consistent with the total current 2001 County population.

• Reference Scenario – This scenario utilises the current population trends in the constituent municipalities. The projection also considers the effect that migration patterns may have on the County. The Ministry of Finance projects that Middlesex County will grow by 0.4% annually but, importantly, this includes the City of London. The most notable feature of the Ministry projection that has some bearing on the current County forecast is the doubling in population of the 60 to 64 age group by 2028. Currently, according to the Ministry, this age group in the County (which includes London), numbers about 16,000 and is expected to grow to over 30,000. This indicates a strong retirement scenario for the whole of the area. Coincidentally, County Staff have indicated that recent growth and future growth is perceived to come by way of retirees from other rural areas in southwestern Ontario combined with a local, rural to urban movement. Consequently, it is not unreasonable to expect that the County would perhaps grow at half the rate of the Ministry defined County, (inclusive of the London urban area). Therefore, this scenario includes an average annual growth rate of about 0.2% in the projection.

• High Scenario – Forecasts a growth in population that is similar to that forecast for the Province as a whole. This scenario utilises a growth rate that is consistent with Ministry of Finance population growth rates, (1.12% annually, on average, over the 2001 to 2026 period).


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2.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The scenarios described above assume growth rates that will be similar across the local municipalities in the County. Therefore, some conservative use of the data is necessary. The limitations of the forecasts (and the projection model), include the inability to include many very area-specific issues that may affect population growth. For example, inter-municipal differences might include municipal servicing constraints or agreements that the model cannot predict. Another example includes intra-municipal differentiation, (i.e. the distinction between urban, rural and seasonal development and/or populations). On a more global basis, things like Provincial and Federal fiscal and immigration policies can have significant impacts on growth and cannot be reliably predicted over a 25 year period.

3.0 POPULATION PROJECTIONS - RESULTS

Historical and projected populations for the County and constituent municipalities are presented in the following section. Table 3-1 details historical census populations for the County and its constituent municipalities for 1991 and 2001. Projected populations for the period 2001 to 2026 are indicated by five year age cohort in Tables 3-11 to 3-16. Detailed tables are found in Appendix A. As well, associated projections of births, deaths and net migration for the Reference Scenario only are found in Appendix B. While not part of any analysis in this study, Appendix C contains 2001 Statistics Canada place of work data for each constituent municipality.

3.1 GROWTH RATES AND PATTERNS

Recent population growth in the County between the 1991 and 2001 Census periods, totalled 4,775 people, representing an average annual growth rate of about 0.8%. Tables 3-2 to 3-9 illustrate the growth in the local municipalities, (Source: Statistics Canada).

Table 3-1 Historical Populations County of Middlesex

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 2,178 2,351 4,529 1,905 2,025 3,930

5-9 2,470 2,538 5,007 2,520 2,740 5,260

10-14 2,395 2,445 4,841 2,590 2,845 5,435

15-19 2,188 2,320 4,508 2,460 2,615 5,075

20-24 1,713 1,924 3,637 1,680 1,815 3,495

25-29 2,094 2,157 4,251 1,525 1,480 3,005

30-34 2,682 2,546 5,228 2,070 1,900 3,970

35-39 2,508 2,560 5,069 2,795 2,725 5,520

40-44 2,363 2,404 4,766 2,930 2,885 5,815

45-49 1,922 2,009 3,931 2,505 2,655 5,160

50-54 1,549 1,609 3,158 2,365 2,370 4,735

55-59 1,347 1,478 2,825 1,835 1,905 3,740


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Table 3-1 Historical Populations County of Middlesex

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

60-64 1,253 1,365 2,618 1,460 1,490 2,950

65-69 1,277 1,144 2,421 1,270 1,245 2,515

70-74 1,022 942 1,964 1,100 1,065 2,165

75-79 771 631 1,402 985 735 1,720

80-84 531 361 892 710 460 1,170

85+ 591 221 812 690 285 975

Total 30,853 31,006 61,860 33,395 33,240 66,635

Some local communities such as North Middlesex and Lucan Biddulph have remained quite stable over the period while other communities have grown in comparison, (i.e. Middlesex Centre and Strathroy Caradoc). According to the available data, two communities declined in population over the period – Newbury and Southwest Middlesex.

Table 3-2 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, North Middlesex

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 297 271 568 200 220 420

5-9 282 303 585 270 300 570

10-14 270 276 546 290 300 590

15-19 234 298 532 270 305 575

20-24 172 193 365 165 190 355

25-29 261 250 511 140 150 290

30-34 275 285 560 220 185 405

35-39 239 250 489 295 295 590

40-44 249 261 510 270 295 565

45-49 198 219 417 255 240 495

50-54 151 171 322 245 250 495

55-59 135 141 276 185 195 380

60-64 125 134 259 135 155 290

65-69 146 115 261 110 110 220

70-74 125 110 235 100 90 190

75-79 129 82 211 105 65 170

80-84 82 58 140 90 55 145

85+ 109 37 146 130 40 170

Total 3,479 3,454 6,933 3,475 3,440 6,915


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Table 3-3 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Lucan Biddulph

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 167 172 339 135 145 280

5-9 178 188 366 160 185 345

10-14 214 203 417 170 170 340

15-19 141 156 297 165 160 325

20-24 120 130 250 130 130 260

25-29 141 130 271 120 105 225

30-34 183 193 376 170 145 315

35-39 193 192 385 175 165 340

40-44 161 172 333 170 190 360

45-49 130 140 270 150 160 310

50-54 88 104 192 140 140 280

55-59 83 83 166 105 130 235

60-64 63 88 151 75 80 155

65-69 78 73 151 70 60 130

70-74 57 47 104 50 50 100

75-79 36 32 68 65 40 105

80-84 26 21 47 35 25 60

85+ 10 10 20 25 10 35

Total 2,069 2,134 4,203 2,110 2,090 4,200

Table 3-4 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Middlesex Centre

Age 1991 1991 1991 2001 2001 2001

Female Male Total Female Male Total

0-4 366 402 768 405 380 785

5-9 449 518 967 530 585 1,115

10-14 451 483 934 505 595 1,100

15-19 459 473 931 495 565 1,060

20-24 340 370 710 305 375 680

25-29 321 351 672 270 270 540

30-34 495 469 964 390 375 765

35-39 544 562 1,105 595 565 1,160

40-44 542 543 1,085 630 645 1,275

45-49 457 467 924 570 615 1,185

50-54 338 341 679 565 555 1,120


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Table 3-4 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Middlesex Centre

Age 1991 1991 1991 2001 2001 2001

Female Male Total Female Male Total

55-59 278 345 624 430 455 885

60-64 287 332 618 330 350 680

65-69 264 277 541 275 295 570

70-74 189 176 365 235 245 480

75-79 128 117 245 210 170 380

80-84 83 56 140 145 85 230

85+ 147 45 192 185 55 240

Total 6,137 6,327 12,464 7,070 7,180 14,250

Table 3-5 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Thames Centre

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 336 337 673 325 340 665

5-9 459 453 912 485 505 990

10-14 444 449 894 510 575 1,085

15-19 410 425 835 480 505 985

20-24 264 365 629 310 340 650

25-29 330 331 662 215 210 425

30-34 514 474 987 340 315 655

35-39 484 494 977 570 490 1,060

40-44 469 484 953 595 600 1,195

45-49 361 391 752 500 570 1,070

50-54 327 347 674 495 495 990

55-59 283 293 577 370 390 760

60-64 205 243 447 295 305 600

65-69 215 186 400 230 240 470

70-74 156 151 307 175 195 370

75-79 93 92 185 150 115 265

80-84 53 44 97 90 70 160

85+ 24 15 39 50 35 85

Total 5,428 5,572 11,001 6,185 6,295 12,480


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Table 3-6 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Strathroy Caradoc

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 668 772 1,440 560 645 1,205

5-9 704 662 1,366 720 810 1,530

10-14 641 626 1,267 720 790 1,510

15-19 605 599 1,204 690 705 1,395

20-24 563 548 1,111 525 510 1,035

25-29 719 735 1,454 545 520 1,065

30-34 808 725 1,533 675 605 1,280

35-39 657 683 1,340 770 805 1,575

40-44 615 584 1,199 830 760 1,590

45-49 501 501 1,002 675 700 1,375

50-54 422 433 855 605 600 1,205

55-59 360 375 735 490 465 955

60-64 371 344 715 425 395 820

65-69 365 313 678 385 345 730

70-74 328 281 609 370 320 690

75-79 255 204 459 305 235 540

80-84 167 110 277 210 155 365

85+ 135 63 198 155 85 240

Total 8,884 8,558 17,442 9,655 9,450 19,105

Table 3-7 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Adelaide Metcalfe

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 111 126 237 95 105 200

5-9 147 147 294 135 125 260

10-14 125 151 276 135 140 275

15-19 105 120 225 130 125 255

20-24 83 99 182 80 85 165

25-29 93 99 192 80 75 155

30-34 120 120 240 95 95 190

35-39 115 120 235 120 130 250

40-44 88 115 203 145 115 260

45-49 83 73 156 105 120 225

50-54 58 73 131 90 105 195

55-59 63 79 142 85 70 155

60-64 58 58 116 45 80 125


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Table 3-7 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Adelaide Metcalfe

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

65-69 47 46 93 55 60 115

70-74 42 57 99 35 50 85

75-79 31 26 57 40 30 70

80-84 41 26 67 55 25 80

85+ 99 21 120 70 25 95

Total 1,509 1,556 3,065 1,595 1,560 3,155

Table 3-8 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Southwest Middlesex

Age 1991 Female

1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 207 250 457 170 180 350

5-9 234 246 480 210 215 425

10-14 234 241 475 235 250 485

15-19 218 229 447 220 235 455

20-24 161 209 370 155 175 330

25-29 202 235 437 145 140 285

30-34 266 271 537 165 175 340

35-39 256 239 495 250 255 505

40-44 223 229 452 270 270 540

45-49 187 208 395 235 230 465

50-54 155 135 290 210 220 430

55-59 140 156 296 165 195 360

60-64 140 161 301 140 115 255

65-69 152 125 277 135 130 265

70-74 115 115 230 125 115 240

75-79 94 73 167 105 75 180

80-84 73 41 114 80 45 125

85+ 67 30 97 70 30 100

Total 3,124 3,193 6,317 3,085 3,050 6,135


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Table 3-9 Historical Populations County of Middlesex, Newbury

Age 1991

Female 1991 Male

1991 Total

2001 Female

2001 Male

2001 Total

0-4 26 21 47 15 10 25

5-9 16 21 37 10 15 25

10-14 16 16 32 25 25 50

15-19 16 21 37 10 15 25

20-24 10 10 20 10 10 20

25-29 26 26 52 10 10 20

30-34 21 10 31 15 5 20

35-39 21 21 42 20 20 40

40-44 16 16 32 20 10 30

45-49 5 10 15 15 20 35

50-54 10 5 15 15 5 20

55-59 5 5 10 5 5 10

60-64 5 5 10 15 10 25

65-69 10 10 20 10 5 15

70-74 10 5 15 10 0 10

75-79 5 5 10 5 5 10

80-84 5 5 10 5 0 5

85+ 0 0 0 5 5 10

Total 223 212 435 220 175 395

On a County-wide basis, the actual population growth over the 1991 to 2001 period was considerably less than the 9,771 projected for that period in the 1996 population projection update. The reasons for this are due, to a lesser extent, on the recession of the early 1990’s as well as computer projections which utilized 1985 to 1995 growth trends that were biased toward higher rates of growth for successive periods than those contained in this update. However, the most important reason is that birth rates have declined rapidly over the 1991 to 2002 period across the Province and the country. Table 3-2 indicates that the birth rate per 1,000 population (all age cohorts), has steadily declined in the Province. In fact, the birth rate has declined by 28% over that period.

Table 3-10 Province of Ontario Birth Rate per 1,000 Population

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Rate 14.67 14.38 13.93 13.59 13.49 13.31

Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Rate 12.07 11.66 11.32 11.20 10.73 10.53

Source: Statistics Canada


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This decline means that there are fewer babies being currently born and in 15 to 25 years’ time, there could exist an even smaller demographic of child-bearing age. Given this current trend, combined with a typical natural out-migration of young people, the County’s population growth rate would invariably decline. However, it seems that the mitigating factor relates to a relatively strong in-migration pattern, allowing the actual population to continue to grow. Of important note also is that while the County population drops quite dramatically after age 20 (see Table 3-1), the population is restored after age 35. This is true not only in the 2001 Census, but also the 1991 Census. This seems to indicate that the area has the economic ability to attract those young people lost for a period of time to opportunities outside of the County. The most likely scenario here is that they move away to take advantage of job-training, post secondary education, or other economic development enhancing opportunities.

3.2 FORECASTS - LOW, REFERENCE AND HIGH SCENARIOS

Tables 3-11 to 3-13 that follow give some detail regarding the Low, Reference and High Scenarios that this study presents. Based on the Low Scenario projection, population in the County is projected to increase from 66,635 in 2001 to 69,532 by 2006, to 71,413 by 2011, to 69,847 by 2016 and to stabilise at approximately the 2001 total in 2026. This population level could be the result of birth rates declining further over the planning period combined with a stronger out-migration of child-bearing aged cohorts resulting in fewer babies to replace the aging population coincident with a further incidence of young adults not returning to the County.

Based on the Reference Scenario projection, population in the County projected to increase to about 70,500 by 2026, up from the 66,635 of 2001. As discussed in Section 2.3, this forecast assumes a growth rate of about 0.2% annually over the 2001 to 2026 period. Given the underlying assumption’s strong relationship to the Provincial projection model, this scenario seems the most likely to occur.

Limitations to the Forecasts

It is important to note again that along with Statistics Canada employing a “random rounding” policy in the reporting of age-specific data for reasons of confidentiality, there are many unpredictable variables that are not easily modelled that may have an influence on population growth over the 25 year period. Consequently, the forecasts discussed must be viewed conservatively and may be only indicative of trends and not narrowly defined actual population targets. Further, the detailed age-specific forecast tables in Appendix A, along with the age-specific births, deaths and migration figures presented in Appendix B, must be viewed with the same conservatism. While local staff knowledge has been incorporated into the model runs, they are calculated figures that are highly dependent on some narrow assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration and should be viewed as providing information about trends only. This is especially true for the very small communities such as Newbury.


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Table 3-11 County of Middlesex Population Projections 2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, County

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Total Total Total Total Total

0-4 3,921 3,698 3,165 2,636 2,724

5-9 5,212 4,958 4,286 3,538 3,526

10-14 5,710 4,790 5,382 4,510 3,860

15-19 5,487 5,364 4,840 5,057 4,506

20-24 4,314 3,926 4,681 3,437 4,341

25-29 2,638 3,357 3,004 3,518 2,610

30-34 3,170 3,824 3,525 4,261 3,692

35-39 4,420 3,916 4,320 4,356 4,819

40-44 5,720 4,397 4,112 4,231 4,535

45-49 5,853 5,625 4,415 3,976 4,263

50-54 5,133 5,790 5,584 4,374 3,959

55-59 4,582 4,914 5,612 5,356 4,270

60-64 3,555 4,419 4,671 5,390 5,106

65-69 2,716 3,326 4,086 4,371 4,945

70-74 2,212 2,461 2,894 3,666 3,800

75-79 1,712 1,779 1,908 2,349 2,831

80-84 1,168 1,273 1,186 1,430 1,548

85+ 2,009 3,598 2,175 1,998 1398

Total 69,532 71,413 69,847 68,453 66,723

As Table 3-13 indicates, the High Scenario as discussed in Section 2.3, is perhaps the least likely to occur over the planning period. The Scenario is based strictly on the growth rate that the Ontario Ministry of Finance predicts will prevail across the province over virtually the same period, (to 2028). It is unlikely that the County will partake of this rate of growth and grow to over 88,000 people as the large increases are expected to centre on the GTA region. This Scenario is presented to illustrate the population increases the County would experience if the Middlesex area were to grow on an average basis consistent with the rest of the Province and allow a comparison between this level and what the County is likely to experience.


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Table 3-12 County of Middlesex Population Projections 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, County

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Age Total Total Total Total Total

0-4 3,948 3,753 3,269 2,771 2,941

5-9 5,246 5,033 4,415 3,724 3,792

10-14 5,747 4,864 5,541 4,730 4,151

15-19 5,502 5,394 4,944 5,191 4,767

20-24 4,371 4,039 4,799 3,688 4,590

25-29 2,702 3,485 3,245 3,803 3,016

30-34 3,191 3,867 3,707 4,482 4,059

35-39 4,458 3,992 4,480 4,719 5,258

40-44 5,740 4,437 4,230 4,357 4,967

45-49 5,868 5,655 4,479 4,099 4,437

50-54 5,143 5,810 5,630 4,445 4,105

55-59 4,591 4,931 5,650 5,422 4,358

60-64 3,568 4,445 4,718 5,472 5,209

65-69 2,731 3,357 4,152 4,468 5,087

70-74 2,225 2,487 2,962 3,767 3,957

75-79 1,726 1,808 1,966 2,445 2,989

80-84 1,186 1,308 1,246 1,522 1,702

85+ 2,009 3,598 2,186 2,014 1438

Total 69,953 72,263 71,618 71,122 70,474


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Table 3-13 County of Middlesex Population Projections 2001 to 2026, High Scenario, County

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4 4,053 3,963 3,700 3,342 3,959

5-9 5,371 5,322 4,927 4,514 5,006

10-14 5,912 5,195 6,299 5,878 5,775

15-19 5,561 5,511 5,418 5,766 6,147

20-24 4,545 4,388 5,151 4,488 5,434

25-29 2,899 3,880 3,927 4,589 4,177

30-34 3,281 4,046 4,385 5,398 5,415

35-39 4,627 4,330 5,325 6,444 7,719

40-44 5,828 4,613 4,795 4,992 7,227

45-49 5,931 5,781 4,777 4,682 5,446

50-54 5,183 5,890 5,829 4,766 4,826

55-59 4,619 4,987 5,785 5,659 4,740

60-64 3,613 4,537 4,883 5,769 5,588

65-69 2,785 3,465 4,380 4,803 5,605

70-74 2,270 2,576 3,187 4,102 4,505

75-79 1,772 1,900 2,141 2,731 3,474

80-84 1,241 1,419 1,426 1,801 2,150

85+ 2,009 3,598 2,223 2,068 1,705

Total 71,502 75,399 78,558 81,791 88,896


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As Table 3-14 to Table 3-16 suggest (more detailed tables are available in the Appendices), if the County’s constituent municipalities continue with a rate of growth that is analogous to that which is expected for the whole of the Middlesex area, the rate of growth (as given in the Reference Scenario), would be expected to be about 0.2% over the 25 year planning horizon.

Table 3-14 County of Middlesex, Projected Population Low Scenario - 2001 to 2021 Forecasted Population in Constituent

Municipalities

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

North Middlesex 6,968 6,937 6,545 6,184 5,815

Lucan Biddulph 4,223 4,222 3,994 3,807 3,601

Middlesex Centre 15,190 15,825 15,898 15,887 15,705

Thames Centre 13,211 13,606 13,442 13,197 12,950

Strathroy Caradoc 20,229 21,130 20,878 20,722 20,553

Adelaide Metcalfe 3,225 3,286 3,161 3,085 3,004

Southwest Middlesex 6,109 6,041 5,580 5,230 4,802

Newbury 377 366 348 342 294

Combined with the reality of the demographic structure of the local populations, the Reference Scenario is an assumed rate of growth that indicates that most local communities will grow, but others may experience slight declines. It is thought that because of the rural/urban structure of the County, it is likely that this will occur as the older rural-based population base moves to larger local communities.

Table 3-15 County of Middlesex, Projected Population Reference Scenario - 2001 to 2021 Forecasted Population in Constituent

Municipalities

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

North Middlesex 7,001 7,005 6,681 6,385 6,131

Lucan Biddulph 4,249 4,274 4,094 3,954 3,841


Thames Centre 13,300 13,787 13,830 13,786 14,092




Newbury 382 375 367 369 338


I-18493 16

Table 3-16 County of Middlesex, Projected Population High Scenario- 2001 to 2021 Forecasted Population in Constituent Municipalities

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

North Middlesex 7,139 7,281 7,231 7,201 7,370

Lucan Biddulph 4,355 4,486 4,509 4,568 4,821


Thames Centre 13,706 14,612 15,726 16,730 19,419




Newbury 435 395 401 414 552

4.0 HOUSEHOLD SIZE

4.1 NATIONAL TRENDS

As Figure 1 below suggests, the average household size will continue to shrink, although not as rapidly as in the past. Between 1961 and 1986, the size of the average Canadian household dropped from 4.0 to 2.8 persons. Explanations for the drop include increased affluence, rising female participation in the labour force, dropping births rates, rising divorce rates, delayed marriages and an increased likelihood of remaining unmarried. According to Statistics Canada’s base population projection, the average size will drop to just under 2.5 people per household across Canada by 2011.

Source – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2003 Canadian Housing Observer

4.2 PROVINCIAL TRENDS

The Final Report of the Central Ontario Smart Growth Panel entitled “Shape the Future” (April, 2003), discusses the same decline in average household size. The report similarly mentions that post-war households were about 4.0 people in size and


I-18493 17

over the years declined to about 2.7 people in 2001. Further, the study indicates that the central Toronto core now has a household size of about 1.5 persons. At this Provincial scale, it would be expected that the decline in household size would be similar to the national situation.

4.3 COUNTY OF MIDDLESEX AND AREA TRENDS

According to the County of Middlesex Municipal Profile found on the County’s website, the 1996 average household size was 2.9 compared to 2.5 for London and 2.7 for Ontario. By individual municipality, the household sizes historically vary as follows:

Table 4-1 Average Household Size, 1996 – 2001 County of Middlesex

Community 1996* 2001**

Southwest Middlesex 2.8 2.7

Strathroy Caradoc 2.8 2.7

Thames Centre 3.0 2.9

North Middlesex 3.0 2.9

Newbury 2.7 2.6

Middlesex Centre 3.1 2.9

Lucan Biddulph 2.9 2.9

Adelaide Metcalfe 3.2 3.1

County Average 2.9 2.8 * Source – County of Middlesex ** Source – Statistics Canada

For the sake of comparison, and assuming a distinct similarity in economy and demography, the County of Oxford’s “Population and Household Projections, 1996-2021” (Fall, 2001), were referenced. In that study, Table 3.1 illustrates that the County similarly has seen a decline in average household size from a ppu of 3.01 in 1981 to 2.89 in 1986, 2.83 in 1991 to 2.73 in 1996 and an estimated value of 2.72 County-wide by 2001. Oxford County’s Medium Growth Scenario forecasts an average household size of 2.66 by 2011, 2.63 by 2016 and 2.60 the end of the planning horizon, (2021).

Based on the national, provincial and area trends, it would be expected that the County’s average household size will continue to decline. The explanations are not dissimilar to those at the national or provincial level including delayed marriages and dropping births rates. However, it is not expected that even at the national or provincial level that the average size will experience the significant declines seen over the five post-war decades. If a parallel to the County of Oxford can be drawn, Middlesex may experience a small decline in the average ppu (persons per unit), county-wide by the end of the planning period in the 4% to 5% range. This would indicate, from 2001, a decline to between 2.6 to 2.7 persons.

County of Middlesex POPULATION PROJECTION, 2001-2026

I-18493 Appendix A - 1

APPENDIX A

Detailed Projections

County of Middlesex and its Constituent Municipalities

Low Scenario



County of Middlesex Population Projections

2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, County

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026

Age Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

0-4 1,899 2,021 3,921 1,791 1,907 3,698 1,533 1,632 3,165 1,277 1,359 2,636 1,319 1,404 2,724

5-9 2,568 2,644 5,212 2,454 2,504 4,958 2,118 2,168 4,286 1,751 1,787 3,538 1,749 1,776 3,526

10-14 2,729 2,981 5,710 2,302 2,488 4,790 2,646 2,737 5,382 2,156 2,354 4,510 1,904 1,956 3,860

15-19 2,592 2,896 5,487 2,523 2,841 5,364 2,305 2,535 4,840 2,460 2,597 5,057 2,139 2,367 4,506

20-24 2,065 2,249 4,314 1,809 2,117 3,926 2,165 2,516 4,681 1,594 1,842 3,437 2,093 2,248 4,341

25-29 1,302 1,336 2,638 1,702 1,655 3,357 1,406 1,598 3,004 1,717 1,801 3,518 1,232 1,378 2,610

30-34 1,701 1,469 3,170 2,031 1,793 3,824 1,886 1,639 3,525 2,175 2,086 4,261 1,887 1,805 3,692

35-39 2,324 2,096 4,420 2,041 1,875 3,916 2,308 2,012 4,320 2,261 2,095 4,356 2,488 2,332 4,819

40-44 2,877 2,843 5,720 2,249 2,148 4,397 2,122 1,990 4,112 2,201 2,030 4,231 2,319 2,215 4,535

45-49 2,925 2,928 5,853 2,804 2,820 5,625 2,240 2,175 4,415 2,039 1,936 3,976 2,183 2,081 4,263

50-54 2,500 2,633 5,133 2,934 2,856 5,790 2,786 2,798 5,584 2,245 2,129 4,374 2,052 1,907 3,959

55-59 2,291 2,291 4,582 2,396 2,518 4,914 2,849 2,764 5,612 2,689 2,668 5,356 2,158 2,111 4,270

60-64 1,749 1,806 3,555 2,225 2,194 4,419 2,283 2,388 4,671 2,757 2,633 5,390 2,580 2,526 5,106

65-69 1,389 1,327 2,716 1,728 1,597 3,326 2,115 1,970 4,086 2,260 2,111 4,371 2,579 2,366 4,945

70-74 1,148 1,064 2,212 1,294 1,167 2,461 1,555 1,340 2,894 1,958 1,708 3,666 2,002 1,798 3,800

75-79 897 815 1,712 982 797 1,779 1,051 857 1,908 1,339 1,010 2,349 1,620 1,210 2,831

80-84 730 438 1,168 757 516 1,273 716 471 1,186 870 560 1,430 976 572 1,548

85+ 1,101 909 2,009 1,827 1,771 3,598 1,221 954 2,175 1,277 721 1,998 794 605 1398

Total 34,786 34,746 69,532 35,850 35,563 71,413 35,304 34,543 69,847 35,026 33,427 68,453 34,069 32,655 66,723




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, North Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 196 209 405 180 192 372 145 155 300 117 124 241 111 118 229

5-9 270 277 547 250 255 504 210 214 423 162 165 327 154 159 314

10-14 269 313 581 195 243 438 248 265 514 176 211 387 161 172 332

15-19 284 301 585 258 302 560 190 244 434 239 256 495 172 212 384

20-24 212 257 469 175 205 379 218 262 480 116 164 280 202 221 423

25-29 110 113 223 159 150 310 121 126 247 150 146 296 65 96 162

30-34 163 146 309 210 182 392 183 146 329 222 196 417 165 142 307

35-39 228 198 427 158 176 334 220 195 414 179 176 355 230 208 438

40-44 292 297 590 216 191 407 156 179 335 206 188 394 177 179 356

45-49 279 289 568 314 283 597 220 187 407 168 169 337 211 184 395

50-54 252 233 485 266 282 548 310 277 588 212 183 395 166 164 330

55-59 234 235 470 238 213 451 253 265 518 293 251 544 204 172 376

60-64 170 182 352 219 226 445 221 199 419 237 255 492 275 239 514

65-69 117 132 249 150 151 302 192 199 391 193 165 358 205 223 428

70-74 93 83 177 108 103 211 126 112 238 174 149 324 163 120 283

75-79 79 64 142 79 61 140 83 68 151 107 83 191 136 108 244

80-84 80 40 119 72 44 116 60 34 94 78 50 128 82 44 126

85+ 162 110 271 236 193 429 159 103 262 157 68 225 125 49 174

Total 3,489 3,478 6,968 3,483 3,454 6,937 3,314 3,231 6,545 3,185 2,999 6,184 3,005 2,810 5,815




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 133 141 274 125 133 258 108 115 224 88 93 181 84 90 174

5-9 164 159 323 157 160 318 132 122 254 110 113 223 105 94 199

10-14 162 185 347 137 143 281 159 160 319 127 131 258 111 112 224

15-19 164 156 320 148 157 305 131 131 262 145 136 281 123 123 245

20-24 131 129 259 102 108 209 120 130 250 81 90 171 118 110 229

25-29 117 103 221 140 107 246 90 81 171 125 103 228 70 66 136

30-34 147 112 259 183 145 328 160 112 273 142 119 262 141 108 249

35-39 184 159 343 148 133 281 199 158 357 172 134 306 156 132 289

40-44 169 164 332 158 143 300 141 131 273 170 142 312 166 133 299

45-49 150 176 325 135 137 272 140 131 271 114 110 224 149 130 279

50-54 138 142 280 147 154 301 124 123 247 136 115 251 102 95 198

55-59 124 134 258 121 148 269 132 148 280 108 127 235 123 110 234

60-64 94 112 206 119 107 226 108 129 237 125 117 242 97 111 208

65-69 66 62 128 88 93 182 107 85 192 101 106 207 113 97 210

70-74 60 42 101 59 45 104 74 68 142 94 59 153 85 77 163

75-79 43 35 78 58 32 91 51 24 75 74 50 123 80 35 114

80-84 47 26 73 31 26 57 41 20 61 36 23 59 51 33 83

85+ 51 47 98 98 95 194 59 47 106 65 24 89 35 34 69

Total 2,141 2,082 4,223 2,156 2,067 4,222 2,078 1,916 3,994 2,014 1,793 3,807 1,910 1,691 3,601




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Middlesex Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 388 412 800 377 401 778 329 350 680 279 297 576 276 293 569

5-9 559 602 1,161 547 558 1,105 479 513 993 405 413 819 407 443 851

10-14 608 676 1,283 556 558 1,114 617 652 1,269 514 585 1,099 456 482 938

15-19 531 621 1,153 583 637 1,220 582 583 1,165 600 607 1,207 533 603 1,136

20-24 411 497 907 338 459 797 488 572 1,059 368 428 796 510 537 1,047

25-29 201 252 453 287 318 605 214 317 530 333 352 685 237 290 527

30-34 292 272 565 349 380 729 311 320 632 386 465 851 358 355 713

35-39 502 455 957 495 431 927 466 472 938 522 503 1,025 518 565 1,084

40-44 645 633 1,278 494 513 1,007 539 499 1,039 440 517 957 569 585 1,154

45-49 642 670 1,312 623 618 1,240 504 532 1,036 518 471 989 451 538 989

50-54 581 620 1,201 656 659 1,315 629 620 1,250 514 524 1,038 524 474 998

55-59 543 544 1,087 536 598 1,134 631 647 1,278 585 601 1,186 494 514 1,008

60-64 420 459 879 552 569 1,121 523 602 1,124 641 674 1,315 569 600 1,169

65-69 324 314 638 424 388 812 536 517 1,053 528 509 1,037 621 618 1,239

70-74 237 244 481 270 257 527 364 309 673 451 415 866 455 411 865

75-79 195 182 376 219 179 398 222 178 401 337 233 571 373 303 677

80-84 165 100 265 180 116 296 172 105 277 207 120 327 266 121 387

85+ 217 176 393 333 366 699 298 204 502 378 167 544 198 158 356

Total 7,460 7,730 15,190 7,820 8,005 15,825 7,906 7,992 15,898 8,006 7,881 15,887 7,816 7,889 15,705




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Thames Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 325 346 672 306 325 631 262 279 540 222 236 458 221 236 457

5-9 487 502 990 465 474 940 405 406 810 338 345 682 337 333 669

10-14 569 624 1,193 489 576 1,065 542 586 1,129 457 546 1,003 393 424 817

15-19 521 603 1,124 507 562 1,068 499 602 1,101 485 527 1,012 464 565 1,029

20-24 400 433 834 352 432 785 429 488 917 335 429 764 411 455 866

25-29 193 210 403 247 244 491 227 284 511 255 265 521 212 288 500

30-34 259 186 445 397 292 689 295 214 509 449 370 819 300 234 535

35-39 416 364 780 368 309 676 482 348 830 418 357 774 535 430 964

40-44 594 530 1,124 393 397 790 397 345 742 457 367 824 450 402 853

45-49 602 636 1,238 589 564 1,153 397 419 816 379 354 734 462 392 854

50-54 515 575 1,090 627 614 1,241 595 566 1,161 413 406 819 390 357 747

55-59 497 492 989 512 569 1,081 628 609 1,237 602 563 1,165 413 403 816

60-64 342 357 700 445 434 879 475 526 1,001 563 537 1,100 568 530 1,097

65-69 256 267 523 300 318 618 389 378 767 413 462 875 494 477 971

70-74 203 206 410 252 244 496 264 271 534 380 346 726 364 399 763

75-79 133 144 278 160 147 307 194 177 371 208 193 401 294 249 542

80-84 101 61 162 101 89 190 103 78 181 144 109 254 130 96 226

85+ 126 131 257 244 264 507 143 141 284 148 116 264 91 152 243

Total 6,541 6,670 13,211 6,752 6,854 13,606 6,724 6,717 13,442 6,668 6,529 13,197 6,529 6,421 12,950




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 588 626 1,215 560 596 1,156 485 516 1,001 406 432 838 400 426 825

5-9 753 765 1,518 726 741 1,468 633 665 1,298 527 537 1,064 524 555 1,078

10-14 744 820 1,565 603 660 1,262 750 751 1,501 601 609 1,210 544 544 1,088

15-19 713 816 1,529 705 861 1,567 595 683 1,278 711 787 1,499 596 625 1,221

20-24 622 630 1,252 587 640 1,227 647 797 1,444 489 532 1,021 652 726 1,379

25-29 490 463 953 620 610 1,230 550 582 1,132 633 743 1,376 452 477 929

30-34 596 546 1,142 627 562 1,189 676 642 1,318 699 704 1,403 678 769 1,446

35-39 693 629 1,322 583 568 1,151 648 589 1,237 662 666 1,328 719 737 1,456

40-44 777 818 1,595 693 634 1,326 590 580 1,171 643 588 1,231 670 681 1,351

45-49 837 769 1,606 790 824 1,615 698 639 1,337 598 582 1,180 650 595 1,245

50-54 667 708 1,375 816 780 1,597 781 829 1,610 682 650 1,331 590 587 1,178

55-59 593 572 1,165 660 649 1,309 800 746 1,546 773 763 1,536 668 624 1,292

60-64 487 436 923 609 547 1,155 656 610 1,265 821 710 1,530 761 725 1,486

65-69 435 373 807 523 427 950 618 516 1,134 702 596 1,298 825 671 1,495

70-74 371 325 696 423 367 790 505 403 908 604 508 1,113 677 562 1,239

75-79 315 267 582 322 258 580 360 304 664 436 318 755 514 419 933

80-84 217 153 370 236 175 411 227 165 392 269 198 468 306 194 500

85+ 322 295 616 573 573 1,146 336 308 644 315 227 541 257 156 413

Total 10,219 10,010 20,229 10,656 10,473 21,130 10,554 10,323 20,878 10,571 10,151 20,722 10,481 10,072 20,553




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 98 105 203 91 97 188 80 85 164 66 70 135 135 144 279

5-9 125 121 246 121 123 244 103 93 197 87 89 176 106 84 189

10-14 146 131 277 115 116 231 131 129 260 110 107 217 110 96 206

15-19 127 130 257 119 106 225 108 107 215 106 104 210 85 79 164

20-24 105 94 199 85 77 163 97 79 177 72 63 135 58 43 101

25-29 64 61 125 98 77 176 71 57 127 90 64 154 94 63 157

30-34 86 73 159 91 81 173 104 75 180 97 74 171 109 84 193

35-39 106 106 213 103 98 201 105 93 198 126 100 226 135 99 234

40-44 129 128 257 114 91 205 112 96 208 110 78 187 104 78 181

45-49 139 115 254 109 130 239 109 91 200 93 98 191 94 94 189

50-54 107 114 221 148 105 253 110 125 235 117 83 200 117 80 198

55-59 91 102 193 107 115 222 148 102 249 112 125 236 97 127 224

60-64 74 75 148 69 115 184 89 119 208 114 114 228 105 98 202

65-69 40 70 110 74 53 127 62 99 161 94 86 180 69 78 146

70-74 43 54 97 27 69 96 57 46 102 41 99 140 35 80 116

75-79 30 38 69 47 39 86 24 56 80 63 34 97 62 7 70

80-84 40 15 56 45 22 67 43 19 62 35 29 64 61 32 94

85+ 90 52 142 119 87 207 85 53 138 87 51 137 40 21 61

Total 1,640 1,585 3,225 1,685 1,601 3,286 1,637 1,524 3,161 1,617 1,468 3,085 1,617 1,387 3,004




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 160 171 331 144 153 297 117 124 241 94 100 195 87 93 180

5-9 200 208 407 179 182 361 149 150 298 117 119 237 111 105 217

10-14 222 216 438 192 180 372 189 183 372 163 153 316 124 120 243

15-19 229 245 474 197 205 402 187 176 363 168 174 341 159 150 309

20-24 179 200 379 154 180 334 163 179 342 125 129 253 138 151 289

25-29 117 128 246 145 142 286 120 139 258 128 122 250 95 93 187

30-34 147 125 272 159 146 305 147 126 273 158 150 307 130 111 241

35-39 182 181 362 179 152 330 175 152 327 178 153 331 172 154 326

40-44 250 254 505 167 174 342 179 151 331 161 145 306 178 153 331

45-49 259 265 523 229 245 474 159 171 330 164 146 309 153 142 295

50-54 226 224 450 254 259 513 223 241 463 157 167 325 158 142 300

55-59 194 212 406 207 215 422 238 250 487 201 229 431 146 161 307

60-64 153 177 330 189 187 376 192 194 386 229 219 448 189 213 403

65-69 135 99 234 159 162 321 182 167 349 199 178 378 219 197 416

70-74 122 110 232 125 82 207 144 132 276 169 132 301 181 143 324

75-79 96 85 182 93 77 170 95 50 144 109 95 204 129 92 221

80-84 78 38 116 87 44 131 69 47 116 87 30 117 81 50 131

85+ 127 94 220 213 184 396 132 91 224 117 63 181 47 35 82

Total 3,077 3,031 6,109 3,072 2,969 6,041 2,859 2,721 5,580 2,723 2,507 5,230 2,496 2,306 4,802




2001 to 2026, Low Scenario, Newbury

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 11 11 22 9 10 19 7 8 15 5 6 11 5 5 11

5-9 11 10 21 9 9 19 8 6 14 5 6 11 5 3 9

10-14 10 16 26 14 12 26 9 10 19 9 11 20 5 6 12

15-19 23 23 46 6 11 17 13 10 23 6 7 12 8 11 18

20-24 5 10 15 15 15 31 3 8 12 9 7 16 4 4 8

25-29 8 6 14 6 7 13 14 13 27 4 5 9 8 5 13

30-34 12 7 20 15 5 20 10 3 13 23 7 30 6 3 9

35-39 14 4 18 8 8 15 14 4 18 5 5 10 22 7 29

40-44 20 20 40 14 5 19 7 8 15 14 5 19 4 5 9

45-49 17 10 27 14 19 33 13 5 18 5 7 13 13 5 18

50-54 14 16 31 19 3 22 14 17 31 13 1 15 5 5 10

55-59 15 1 15 15 10 25 18 1 17 14 9 23 13 1 13

60-64 9 7 16 22 10 32 19 11 30 28 6 34 17 10 27

65-69 17 10 27 10 5 15 29 10 39 29 10 39 33 6 39

70-74 17 1 17 30 1 29 21 1 21 44 1 43 41 6 47

75-79 7 1 6 5 2 7 23 1 22 5 2 7 32 1 29

80-84 3 4 7 5 0 5 0 2 3 15 1 14 1 2 1

85+ 7 5 11 10 9 19 8 6 14 10 6 16 1 1 1

Total 219 158 377 226 140 366 231 117 348 242 100 342 215 79 294



APPENDIX A



Reference Scenario




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, County

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 1,912 2,036 3,948 1,818 1,935 3,753 1,583 1,686 3,269 1,342 1,429 2,771 1,425 1,516 2,941

5-9 2,584 2,662 5,246 2,491 2,542 5,033 2,183 2,233 4,415 1,844 1,881 3,724 1,883 1,909 3,792

10-14 2,746 3,001 5,747 2,337 2,528 4,864 2,721 2,820 5,541 2,257 2,473 4,730 2,042 2,109 4,151

15-19 2,597 2,905 5,502 2,535 2,859 5,394 2,351 2,592 4,944 2,521 2,671 5,191 2,255 2,511 4,767

20-24 2,094 2,276 4,371 1,867 2,171 4,039 2,222 2,576 4,799 1,722 1,967 3,688 2,213 2,377 4,590

25-29 1,330 1,372 2,702 1,758 1,726 3,485 1,520 1,724 3,245 1,840 1,963 3,803 1,430 1,586 3,016

30-34 1,716 1,475 3,191 2,061 1,806 3,867 1,981 1,726 3,707 2,312 2,170 4,482 2,072 1,987 4,059

35-39 2,346 2,112 4,458 2,084 1,908 3,992 2,403 2,077 4,480 2,447 2,272 4,719 2,744 2,514 5,258

40-44 2,886 2,854 5,740 2,267 2,170 4,437 2,185 2,045 4,230 2,269 2,088 4,357 2,537 2,430 4,967

45-49 2,932 2,936 5,868 2,819 2,837 5,655 2,269 2,209 4,479 2,105 1,995 4,099 2,270 2,167 4,437

50-54 2,505 2,638 5,143 2,944 2,867 5,810 2,808 2,823 5,630 2,278 2,167 4,445 2,129 1,976 4,105

55-59 2,295 2,295 4,591 2,404 2,526 4,931 2,867 2,783 5,650 2,720 2,701 5,422 2,201 2,157 4,358

60-64 1,754 1,814 3,568 2,236 2,210 4,445 2,304 2,414 4,718 2,793 2,679 5,472 2,627 2,582 5,209

65-69 1,396 1,335 2,731 1,743 1,614 3,357 2,145 2,007 4,152 2,307 2,161 4,468 2,646 2,441 5,087

70-74 1,153 1,073 2,225 1,304 1,183 2,487 1,583 1,378 2,962 1,998 1,769 3,767 2,074 1,883 3,957

75-79 900 826 1,726 988 820 1,808 1,067 900 1,966 1,365 1,080 2,445 1,669 1,320 2,989

80-84 734 452 1,186 764 544 1,308 729 517 1,246 894 628 1,522 1,016 685 1,702

85+ 1,101 909 2,009 1,827 1,771 3,598 1,224 962 2,186 1,281 733 2,014 653 785 1438

Total 34,982 34,971 69,953 36,246 36,017 72,263 36,145 35,473 71,618 36,295 34,826 71,122 35,589 34,885 70,474




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, North Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 197 210 408 183 194 377 150 160 310 123 131 253 120 127 247

5-9 271 279 550 253 259 512 216 220 436 170 173 344 166 171 337

10-14 269 314 582 195 245 440 252 271 524 179 218 397 169 183 352

15-19 285 301 586 259 302 561 191 246 437 244 260 504 176 219 394

20-24 216 261 477 183 212 395 225 268 492 128 177 305 214 232 446

25-29 114 119 232 167 162 329 137 145 282 166 168 334 86 122 209

30-34 164 146 311 214 183 396 196 158 354 241 204 445 187 165 352

35-39 229 199 428 159 179 338 226 199 425 192 195 387 253 222 475

40-44 292 298 590 216 192 408 158 182 339 210 190 400 190 199 389

45-49 280 289 569 316 284 600 221 188 410 172 172 344 217 186 403

50-54 252 234 485 266 283 549 312 279 591 213 184 397 170 168 338

55-59 235 236 471 239 215 454 254 267 522 297 255 552 205 175 380

60-64 171 183 354 220 228 447 223 202 424 239 259 498 280 245 525

65-69 117 133 251 152 154 306 195 203 398 198 172 369 211 231 442

70-74 94 85 179 109 106 215 129 119 248 178 159 337 170 134 304

75-79 79 65 144 80 64 144 85 75 159 111 92 203 142 121 263

80-84 80 41 121 72 47 119 61 39 99 78 57 135 85 56 141

85+ 162 110 271 236 193 429 159 103 262 158 69 226 80 55 135

Total 3,508 3,501 7,009 3,520 3,500 7,020 3,389 3,323 6,712 3,295 3,136 6,430 3,121 3,010 6,131




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 134 142 276 127 135 262 112 119 231 92 98 190 90 96 187

5-9 165 160 325 160 163 323 137 126 262 116 118 234 113 101 214

10-14 162 185 347 138 143 281 162 163 325 130 134 263 117 118 236

15-19 164 157 321 149 159 308 132 133 265 149 141 291 126 126 252

20-24 133 131 264 107 112 219 125 136 260 89 97 187 128 121 249

25-29 118 105 224 142 111 252 97 89 186 129 113 242 80 78 158

30-34 149 113 262 187 146 333 167 118 284 157 127 284 151 119 270

35-39 185 160 345 151 135 286 206 162 369 180 144 324 175 145 320

40-44 169 164 333 159 143 301 145 134 278 175 144 319 175 143 318

45-49 151 177 328 138 139 277 143 133 275 121 115 235 158 133 291

50-54 139 143 282 149 157 305 128 127 255 140 119 259 111 103 214

55-59 125 134 259 123 149 272 135 151 286 114 130 244 128 115 243

60-64 94 114 208 120 109 229 111 131 243 129 124 252 104 117 220

65-69 66 63 129 89 96 185 109 90 199 104 111 216 117 107 224

70-74 60 43 103 60 47 107 76 73 148 97 66 163 89 86 176

75-79 43 36 78 58 34 92 51 28 79 74 56 130 82 44 127

80-84 47 27 74 31 27 58 41 23 64 37 27 64 52 39 91

85+ 51 47 98 98 95 194 59 48 107 65 25 90 15 37 52

Total 2,156 2,099 4,255 2,185 2,100 4,285 2,135 1,981 4,117 2,099 1,888 3,987 2,012 1,829 3,841




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Middlesex Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 392 417 808 385 409 794 345 367 713 300 319 619 308 328 636

5-9 564 607 1,171 558 570 1,128 500 533 1,033 435 444 879 452 486 939

10-14 614 683 1,297 569 573 1,142 643 682 1,325 549 630 1,179 505 536 1,041

15-19 533 623 1,157 587 642 1,229 600 602 1,203 622 628 1,250 576 654 1,230

20-24 417 502 919 351 469 820 504 584 1,088 404 459 863 546 568 1,114

25-29 209 261 470 303 336 639 243 347 590 371 396 767 297 345 642

30-34 294 273 567 353 380 733 332 340 671 409 476 885 407 400 807

35-39 511 462 973 514 445 958 497 495 992 592 566 1,158 597 620 1,216

40-44 650 638 1,288 503 525 1,027 566 524 1,090 461 541 1,002 657 672 1,328

45-49 643 672 1,316 626 622 1,248 515 547 1,063 542 492 1,035 478 573 1,050

50-54 583 621 1,204 660 660 1,320 635 626 1,261 528 538 1,066 552 499 1,050

55-59 544 544 1,088 537 599 1,136 636 649 1,285 591 606 1,197 509 529 1,038

60-64 420 460 881 553 571 1,124 525 605 1,130 646 682 1,328 576 609 1,185

65-69 325 316 641 426 391 818 539 524 1,063 535 518 1,053 630 632 1,262

70-74 238 246 485 272 262 534 369 320 689 458 434 891 466 433 899

75-79 195 185 380 219 186 405 225 191 415 340 252 592 380 335 715

80-84 165 104 269 181 123 304 174 116 290 211 136 347 272 150 422

85+ 217 176 393 333 366 699 299 206 505 379 170 548 250 172 422

Total 7,514 7,791 15,304 7,929 8,129 16,058 8,147 8,259 16,406 8,373 8,287 16,660 8,455 8,540 16,995




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Thames Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 329 350 678 312 332 645 275 292 567 239 255 494 248 264 512

5-9 492 507 998 475 485 960 422 424 846 364 371 735 374 371 745

10-14 576 634 1,210 503 595 1,098 567 618 1,185 493 597 1,090 438 480 918

15-19 522 606 1,127 508 566 1,075 515 626 1,141 499 547 1,046 503 622 1,125

20-24 406 439 845 364 443 807 440 501 941 367 466 833 436 485 921

25-29 202 220 422 264 264 528 256 315 571 292 311 603 267 349 616

30-34 262 188 450 404 296 700 323 237 560 482 388 870 355 284 639

35-39 422 368 790 380 317 697 511 367 877 479 406 884 606 477 1,083

40-44 597 533 1,130 397 404 801 416 360 776 476 384 861 523 467 990

45-49 603 639 1,242 591 570 1,161 403 431 834 395 372 767 485 421 906

50-54 517 576 1,093 631 615 1,246 600 573 1,173 423 415 838 411 376 787

55-59 498 493 990 514 570 1,083 634 612 1,245 609 570 1,179 425 413 838

60-64 343 359 703 448 438 885 479 531 1,010 572 547 1,119 577 541 1,118

65-69 258 269 527 303 322 625 395 387 783 424 474 898 509 495 1,004

70-74 204 208 412 253 247 500 268 279 546 385 357 742 376 418 793

75-79 134 147 281 162 152 315 197 186 383 216 209 424 302 271 574

80-84 102 64 166 102 95 197 107 89 196 150 124 274 141 122 263

85+ 126 131 257 244 264 507 144 143 286 149 119 268 94 166 260

Total 6,591 6,729 13,321 6,855 6,974 13,829 6,950 6,971 13,921 7,013 6,912 13,925 7,071 7,022 14,092




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 590 628 1,219 564 600 1,164 492 524 1,016 415 442 857 414 440 854

5-9 755 768 1,523 731 746 1,478 641 674 1,316 539 550 1,089 541 573 1,114

10-14 746 821 1,568 607 661 1,268 759 757 1,517 614 617 1,230 561 558 1,119

15-19 713 818 1,531 706 866 1,572 600 689 1,289 718 801 1,519 609 638 1,247

20-24 627 635 1,263 597 652 1,249 656 810 1,466 509 552 1,060 670 752 1,422

25-29 493 466 959 625 617 1,242 565 601 1,166 644 764 1,407 478 508 986

30-34 600 548 1,148 636 566 1,202 692 655 1,347 730 728 1,458 703 797 1,501

35-39 695 631 1,325 586 573 1,159 660 599 1,259 675 683 1,359 757 771 1,528

40-44 778 819 1,597 695 636 1,331 595 587 1,182 656 597 1,253 687 703 1,390

45-49 839 770 1,608 793 827 1,619 701 643 1,345 605 589 1,194 666 607 1,273

50-54 667 709 1,376 817 782 1,599 783 833 1,616 684 656 1,340 598 597 1,195

55-59 593 573 1,167 660 652 1,312 800 751 1,552 776 772 1,548 670 634 1,304

60-64 488 437 925 611 549 1,160 659 616 1,275 827 719 1,546 768 738 1,505

65-69 437 373 811 528 429 957 628 520 1,148 717 602 1,320 845 682 1,527

70-74 373 325 698 427 367 794 515 404 919 617 511 1,129 703 568 1,271

75-79 315 269 584 322 262 584 364 308 672 442 328 771 527 430 957

80-84 218 157 374 238 181 420 229 176 405 276 214 490 315 218 533

85+ 322 295 616 573 573 1,146 337 311 648 315 229 545 152 267 419

Total 10,249 10,043 20,292 10,716 10,540 21,255 10,679 10,459 21,138 10,761 10,354 21,114 10,662 10,482 21,145




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 99 105 204 93 98 191 82 88 170 69 74 143 146 156 302

5-9 126 122 248 123 125 248 107 97 203 92 94 186 112 90 202

10-14 146 132 278 117 117 234 135 132 267 115 111 226 115 102 217

15-19 128 131 259 120 107 228 110 109 220 110 109 219 93 88 181

20-24 107 96 203 89 82 171 101 84 186 79 72 151 68 54 122

25-29 65 63 128 101 81 181 76 64 141 95 71 166 101 70 172

30-34 86 73 160 92 82 174 108 79 187 104 79 183 120 92 212

35-39 107 107 215 105 100 204 109 96 205 134 109 243 146 108 254

40-44 130 128 258 116 91 207 115 98 213 114 79 193 109 79 187

45-49 139 115 254 110 130 240 111 91 203 96 100 196 98 97 195

50-54 107 115 222 149 105 254 111 126 237 119 84 203 120 82 202

55-59 91 102 193 108 115 223 148 103 251 113 125 238 101 129 230

60-64 74 75 149 71 116 187 92 120 212 118 117 235 110 103 213

65-69 40 71 111 74 54 128 64 102 166 95 90 185 73 82 155

70-74 44 54 98 28 69 97 58 47 106 45 101 146 39 84 123

75-79 30 39 69 47 40 87 25 57 82 64 37 100 67 14 81

80-84 41 16 57 47 23 70 45 22 66 39 33 72 68 37 105

85+ 90 52 142 119 87 207 86 54 140 87 51 139 50 25 75

Total 1,651 1,597 3,248 1,708 1,624 3,332 1,684 1,569 3,253 1,688 1,535 3,222 1,736 1,495 3,228




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 161 172 333 146 155 301 120 128 248 99 105 204 93 99 192

5-9 201 209 410 181 185 366 153 153 306 122 125 247 119 112 230

10-14 223 216 439 194 180 375 193 186 379 168 156 324 131 126 256

15-19 229 245 474 198 206 404 190 176 366 171 177 349 165 153 318

20-24 182 203 385 160 185 345 168 184 352 136 136 272 147 159 306

25-29 120 132 252 150 149 299 130 150 280 139 134 273 112 107 219

30-34 147 127 274 159 148 307 153 135 288 165 158 323 141 125 266

35-39 183 181 364 182 153 334 179 155 334 191 163 353 184 165 349

40-44 251 254 505 168 174 342 183 152 335 162 148 310 192 162 354

45-49 259 265 524 230 246 476 161 171 332 168 147 315 155 145 300

50-54 227 224 451 255 260 515 224 242 466 159 168 327 163 144 307

55-59 195 212 407 209 216 425 240 251 491 206 232 437 149 163 312

60-64 154 178 332 190 189 379 195 197 392 232 225 456 195 218 412

65-69 135 100 235 159 164 323 184 171 354 202 183 385 223 205 428

70-74 123 111 233 125 84 209 145 136 281 170 139 309 183 152 336

75-79 97 87 184 94 80 174 96 55 151 112 103 216 132 105 237

80-84 78 40 118 87 48 135 70 51 122 87 37 124 84 62 145

85+ 127 94 220 213 184 396 132 93 225 118 65 183 18 66 84

Total 3,092 3,049 6,141 3,101 3,005 6,106 2,915 2,786 5,701 2,806 2,601 5,407 2,584 2,467 5,051




2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Newbury

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 11 11 22 9 10 19 7 8 15 6 6 12 6 6 12

5-9 11 10 21 9 10 19 8 6 14 6 6 12 6 4 10

10-14 10 16 26 14 12 26 9 11 20 9 12 21 6 7 13

15-19 23 23 46 6 11 17 13 11 24 6 7 13 8 11 19

20-24 6 11 16 16 16 32 4 9 13 10 8 18 5 5 10

25-29 8 6 15 6 8 14 15 14 29 4 6 10 9 6 15

30-34 13 8 20 15 5 21 11 4 15 25 9 34 7 4 11

35-39 14 4 18 8 8 16 15 4 19 5 6 11 25 8 33

40-44 20 20 40 14 5 19 8 8 15 15 5 20 5 6 11

45-49 17 10 27 15 19 34 13 5 18 6 7 13 14 5 19

50-54 14 17 31 19 4 22 14 17 32 13 2 15 5 6 11

55-59 15 0 15 15 11 26 19 0 18 15 11 25 13 0 14

60-64 9 8 17 23 10 33 20 12 33 29 7 37 18 11 30

65-69 17 10 27 10 5 15 31 10 41 32 11 43 37 7 45

70-74 18 0 18 31 1 31 24 0 24 49 1 50 48 7 55

75-79 7 0 6 5 3 8 25 0 24 6 3 8 37 0 36

80-84 3 4 7 5 0 5 1 2 3 16 0 17 0 2 2

85+ 7 5 11 10 9 19 8 6 14 10 6 16 0 0 0

Total 222 161 383 232 145 377 244 127 371 262 114 375 243 95 338



APPENDIX A



High Scenario




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, County

Age 2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026

Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

0-4 1,963 2,090 4,053 1,920 2,044 3,963 1,792 1,908 3,700 1,619 1,723 3,342 1,918 2,041 3,959

5-9 2,648 2,724 5,371 2,634 2,688 5,322 2,445 2,482 4,927 2,234 2,279 4,514 2,510 2,495 5,006

10-14 2,823 3,089 5,912 2,491 2,704 5,195 3,075 3,224 6,299 2,781 3,096 5,878 2,802 2,972 5,775

15-19 2,619 2,942 5,561 2,578 2,933 5,511 2,559 2,859 5,418 2,770 2,997 5,766 2,858 3,288 6,147

20-24 2,185 2,361 4,545 2,048 2,340 4,388 2,388 2,762 5,151 2,121 2,367 4,488 2,601 2,833 5,434

25-29 1,417 1,483 2,899 1,931 1,948 3,880 1,846 2,081 3,927 2,175 2,414 4,589 1,998 2,180 4,177

30-34 1,782 1,499 3,281 2,192 1,854 4,046 2,374 2,011 4,385 2,932 2,466 5,398 2,858 2,557 5,415

35-39 2,442 2,185 4,627 2,276 2,054 4,330 2,901 2,423 5,325 3,355 3,089 6,444 4,209 3,510 7,719

40-44 2,926 2,902 5,828 2,347 2,266 4,613 2,484 2,311 4,795 2,616 2,376 4,992 3,697 3,530 7,227

45-49 2,961 2,970 5,931 2,876 2,906 5,781 2,403 2,374 4,777 2,404 2,278 4,682 2,756 2,690 5,446

50-54 2,525 2,659 5,183 2,983 2,907 5,890 2,902 2,927 5,829 2,432 2,335 4,766 2,509 2,317 4,826

55-59 2,310 2,308 4,619 2,434 2,553 4,987 2,937 2,848 5,785 2,840 2,820 5,659 2,388 2,352 4,740

60-64 1,773 1,841 3,613 2,274 2,263 4,537 2,382 2,501 4,883 2,929 2,840 5,769 2,809 2,779 5,588

65-69 1,424 1,361 2,785 1,799 1,666 3,465 2,267 2,113 4,380 2,506 2,296 4,803 2,946 2,658 5,605

70-74 1,172 1,098 2,270 1,342 1,235 2,576 1,699 1,488 3,187 2,162 1,940 4,102 2,407 2,098 4,505

75-79 909 862 1,772 1,007 893 1,900 1,121 1,021 2,141 1,455 1,276 2,731 1,870 1,603 3,474

80-84 747 495 1,241 790 629 1,419 774 652 1,426 983 817 1,801 1,166 985 2,150

85+ 1,101 909 2,009 1,827 1,771 3,598 1,236 988 2,223 1,297 770 2,068 706 1,000 1,705

Total 35,725 35,777 71,502 37,748 37,652 75,399 39,583 38,974 78,558 41,611 40,180 81,791 45,008 43,889 88,896




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, North Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 202 215 417 192 204 396 167 178 344 145 154 299 153 163 315

5-9 278 285 563 266 272 538 238 241 479 201 205 405 211 212 423

10-14 269 318 587 196 254 450 266 296 561 189 250 439 200 230 431

15-19 286 302 587 262 303 565 193 256 449 260 276 536 187 253 440

20-24 230 272 501 210 234 444 242 283 525 158 215 372 247 262 508

25-29 127 136 263 193 198 391 183 196 380 208 227 436 139 190 329

30-34 173 147 320 231 184 415 252 195 447 329 229 557 271 226 497

35-39 233 204 437 166 188 355 256 220 476 244 269 514 368 287 655

40-44 293 299 592 217 194 411 165 195 359 228 198 425 242 281 523

45-49 284 290 574 324 286 610 228 192 420 190 184 374 253 195 448

50-54 252 235 487 266 285 551 320 282 603 213 189 403 188 181 370

55-59 236 239 475 241 220 461 257 275 532 310 268 578 207 184 391

60-64 173 185 357 224 231 455 228 210 439 246 268 514 296 260 555

65-69 120 138 257 157 162 319 204 214 418 210 191 401 226 250 476

70-74 95 90 185 111 116 227 137 138 275 189 185 374 186 168 354

75-79 80 69 150 82 73 155 90 92 182 121 118 239 155 158 313

80-84 80 45 124 72 54 126 63 52 115 82 77 159 94 89 183

85+ 162 110 271 236 193 429 159 105 264 159 72 231 85 74 159

Total 3,571 3,577 7,148 3,647 3,652 7,299 3,649 3,619 7,268 3,681 3,576 7,256 3,708 3,662 7,370




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 137 146 283 134 143 277 125 133 257 109 116 225 116 123 239

5-9 170 165 335 169 172 341 153 139 292 137 140 278 145 128 273

10-14 163 185 348 139 143 282 173 172 345 141 141 282 142 140 282

15-19 166 160 326 152 165 317 136 137 273 163 159 322 139 138 276

20-24 141 138 279 123 127 249 138 152 290 112 117 229 153 150 303

25-29 121 111 233 147 123 270 117 113 230 140 138 278 107 108 215

30-34 159 116 274 207 151 358 199 138 336 226 156 382 206 158 364

35-39 190 165 355 161 145 306 243 184 427 219 189 409 274 209 483

40-44 170 164 334 161 143 304 157 144 301 199 150 349 216 188 404

45-49 155 180 335 147 145 292 151 137 288 142 132 275 189 144 333

50-54 141 147 288 153 164 318 140 138 278 149 129 278 137 127 263

55-59 128 135 263 128 151 280 144 160 304 131 139 270 142 126 268

60-64 96 117 213 124 116 240 120 139 259 139 143 282 123 131 254

65-69 68 67 134 91 103 194 114 103 217 114 127 241 129 132 261

70-74 61 46 107 62 54 116 80 86 166 104 87 191 101 110 211

75-79 43 38 81 59 39 98 53 40 94 77 74 151 90 72 161

80-84 47 29 76 32 31 63 43 29 72 41 37 77 56 58 114

85+ 51 47 98 98 95 194 60 48 107 66 26 92 65 50 115

Total 2,207 2,155 4,362 2,288 2,212 4,500 2,344 2,194 4,538 2,408 2,203 4,611 2,529 2,292 4,821




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Middlesex Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 407 434 841 416 443 859 414 441 855 391 417 808 473 503 976

5-9 584 625 1,209 604 616 1,221 588 616 1,204 568 580 1,148 677 699 1,375

10-14 642 716 1,359 625 639 1,265 767 833 1,601 738 873 1,611 785 868 1,653

15-19 543 633 1,176 606 661 1,267 687 696 1,383 728 730 1,457 820 948 1,769

20-24 436 517 954 389 501 890 554 625 1,179 524 568 1,091 684 695 1,378

25-29 233 289 522 350 393 744 326 430 756 480 518 998 470 512 981

30-34 302 274 576 369 382 752 409 400 809 507 515 1,022 592 530 1,122

35-39 552 491 1,044 596 503 1,100 669 623 1,291 950 874 1,824 1,087 963 2,051

40-44 669 664 1,333 542 575 1,117 697 647 1,343 574 672 1,245 1,145 1,148 2,293

45-49 650 683 1,332 638 643 1,281 572 624 1,196 660 603 1,263 649 795 1,443

50-54 590 625 1,214 673 668 1,341 663 656 1,319 598 607 1,204 701 628 1,330

55-59 546 545 1,091 542 600 1,142 653 657 1,310 611 629 1,240 581 597 1,178

60-64 422 465 888 557 581 1,138 536 622 1,158 672 720 1,392 606 660 1,266

65-69 329 321 651 436 402 838 558 546 1,103 568 543 1,111 685 684 1,369

70-74 241 254 495 277 278 555 385 351 736 476 485 961 506 488 994

75-79 196 194 390 221 205 426 231 226 457 352 302 654 398 416 814

80-84 168 114 281 186 143 329 182 149 332 229 182 411 304 226 530

85+ 217 176 393 333 366 699 302 212 514 382 180 562 201 215 416

Total 7,727 8,022 15,749 8,362 8,601 16,963 9,193 9,354 18,546 10,006 9,997 20,003 11,364 11,575 22,939




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Thames Centre

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 341 363 704 338 359 697 331 352 683 315 335 649 382 406 788

5-9 508 523 1,031 514 524 1,037 495 496 991 479 488 967 561 550 1,111

10-14 606 678 1,284 564 682 1,246 691 782 1,473 690 872 1,562 713 828 1,542

15-19 526 616 1,142 517 587 1,104 588 742 1,330 561 644 1,205 721 951 1,673

20-24 424 455 880 401 476 877 473 545 1,018 478 599 1,077 523 606 1,129

25-29 229 250 479 318 324 642 338 401 740 392 438 830 430 541 970

30-34 279 193 472 437 307 743 434 308 742 633 443 1,076 589 423 1,012

35-39 450 386 836 436 353 789 667 462 1,129 780 636 1,416 1,036 740 1,776

40-44 607 548 1,155 417 434 851 506 434 940 578 471 1,050 924 803 1,727

45-49 608 653 1,261 600 598 1,199 433 489 922 471 464 935 623 614 1,237

50-54 524 580 1,104 646 623 1,269 623 608 1,231 471 459 930 524 483 1,007

55-59 502 494 996 523 573 1,095 662 623 1,285 645 606 1,251 494 463 957

60-64 347 365 711 454 449 903 494 545 1,039 600 576 1,177 616 585 1,202

65-69 263 275 538 313 335 648 413 413 826 455 508 962 553 541 1,094

70-74 205 213 417 255 256 512 280 301 581 396 389 785 408 466 874

75-79 138 155 292 169 168 337 206 211 416 238 253 490 324 330 654

80-84 105 72 177 108 111 219 119 118 237 164 166 330 170 189 358

85+ 126 131 257 244 264 507 146 147 293 153 126 279 102 207 309

Total 6,786 6,950 13,736 7,251 7,422 14,673 7,898 7,979 15,877 8,497 8,473 16,970 9,693 9,726 19,419




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 598 636 1,234 579 616 1,195 521 555 1,076 454 483 938 476 507 983

5-9 763 778 1,541 751 766 1,517 675 712 1,388 589 601 1,190 616 656 1,272

10-14 755 825 1,580 625 669 1,294 803 787 1,590 676 652 1,328 647 624 1,271

15-19 715 827 1,542 710 885 1,594 621 720 1,340 743 866 1,609 674 708 1,381

20-24 643 653 1,295 628 686 1,314 680 853 1,533 568 607 1,174 720 844 1,564

25-29 500 477 977 641 639 1,279 609 657 1,266 673 825 1,498 553 586 1,140

30-34 619 558 1,177 674 585 1,260 767 711 1,478 881 831 1,712 835 915 1,751

35-39 702 640 1,342 601 591 1,192 721 647 1,368 736 762 1,498 951 943 1,895

40-44 783 824 1,607 703 647 1,351 622 619 1,241 716 644 1,361 776 821 1,596

45-49 844 774 1,618 803 836 1,639 720 663 1,383 641 624 1,265 751 676 1,426

50-54 667 714 1,381 817 793 1,610 794 853 1,647 693 689 1,382 634 653 1,287

55-59 594 578 1,172 661 661 1,322 802 770 1,572 789 799 1,587 681 674 1,355

60-64 493 442 935 622 558 1,180 678 634 1,312 864 747 1,611 809 773 1,582

65-69 450 375 825 553 433 985 680 533 1,212 800 620 1,420 971 716 1,687

70-74 381 325 706 443 368 811 568 408 976 688 519 1,207 857 585 1,442

75-79 316 274 591 324 273 597 382 320 702 471 355 826 598 458 1,055

80-84 221 167 388 244 203 447 237 206 442 299 254 553 346 275 621

85+ 322 295 616 573 573 1,146 339 318 658 318 236 554 156 301 456

Total 10,365 10,164 20,529 10,951 10,781 21,732 11,218 10,965 22,183 11,597 11,115 22,713 12,051 11,714 23,764




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 102 108 210 98 105 203 94 100 193 83 89 172 195 207 402

5-9 129 125 254 130 133 264 120 107 227 111 113 224 147 115 262

10-14 150 134 284 125 122 247 153 146 299 142 129 271 142 125 266

15-19 129 133 263 124 112 236 121 117 238 123 123 246 114 113 227

20-24 113 103 216 101 97 197 112 98 211 102 95 197 97 87 184

25-29 69 68 137 108 92 200 93 86 179 109 91 199 130 90 220

30-34 88 74 162 97 83 179 123 91 213 130 95 225 176 135 310

35-39 111 112 223 113 108 221 128 111 240 171 149 321 210 149 359

40-44 134 128 262 123 92 215 133 107 240 138 81 218 134 82 216

45-49 141 115 256 112 130 243 120 92 212 107 109 217 114 107 221

50-54 108 116 224 151 108 258 116 128 243 131 88 219 136 86 222

55-59 92 103 194 110 116 226 153 105 258 120 127 247 113 139 252

60-64 76 78 154 75 120 195 99 127 225 131 131 262 123 123 246

65-69 41 72 113 76 57 133 69 111 179 99 99 198 85 93 178

70-74 45 55 100 31 71 101 63 52 115 56 108 164 50 96 146

75-79 31 40 71 48 43 91 28 61 89 67 44 111 99 30 129

80-84 45 18 63 55 28 82 54 30 84 59 45 104 101 51 152

85+ 90 52 142 119 87 207 90 56 146 91 54 145 75 69 144

Total 1,694 1,635 3,329 1,794 1,703 3,497 1,869 1,724 3,593 1,969 1,769 3,739 2,241 1,897 4,138




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026


0-4 165 175 340 153 163 315 132 141 273 114 122 236 116 123 239

5-9 205 212 417 190 193 383 166 164 330 142 145 286 145 130 276

10-14 228 216 444 203 181 384 212 195 407 196 164 360 165 146 312

15-19 230 247 477 201 208 409 200 179 379 184 189 373 194 163 358

20-24 192 211 402 179 202 380 183 196 379 169 156 325 172 181 352

25-29 129 143 272 168 170 338 162 181 343 167 167 334 158 143 300

30-34 148 130 278 161 155 316 173 162 335 189 185 374 174 163 337

35-39 189 183 373 194 157 351 201 169 371 248 200 448 246 205 451

40-44 251 254 505 169 174 343 197 156 353 167 154 321 253 199 452

45-49 261 266 527 235 248 482 164 172 336 185 153 339 162 152 315

50-54 228 225 453 257 262 519 230 244 474 163 170 333 181 151 333

55-59 198 213 411 214 219 432 247 255 502 218 238 456 156 166 323

60-64 155 181 336 193 195 388 202 206 408 240 239 478 208 229 437

65-69 136 103 239 162 169 331 190 182 371 214 196 409 237 225 462

70-74 123 114 236 125 89 215 147 149 296 173 161 334 195 175 370

75-79 99 91 191 98 89 187 100 69 169 122 126 248 141 136 277

80-84 78 46 124 87 60 147 74 66 139 88 55 143 91 94 186

85+ 127 94 220 213 184 396 132 96 228 119 69 188 21 84 106

Total 3,142 3,104 6,246 3,201 3,117 6,319 3,111 2,982 6,094 3,097 2,888 5,985 3,017 2,869 5,885




2001 to 2026, High Scenario, Newbury

Age 2006 2006 2006 2011 2011 2011 2016 2016 2016 2021 2021 2021 2026 2026 2026

Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

0-4 11 12 23 10 11 21 9 9 18 7 8 15 8 8 16

5-9 12 10 22 10 10 21 9 7 17 8 8 15 8 6 14

10-14 10 16 26 15 13 27 10 13 23 10 15 25 8 10 18

15-19 24 23 47 7 12 19 14 12 26 8 9 17 9 14 24

20-24 7 12 18 18 18 37 6 11 17 12 10 22 8 8 16

25-29 9 7 16 7 9 17 18 17 34 6 9 15 11 10 21

30-34 14 8 22 17 6 24 17 7 24 37 14 51 14 8 22

35-39 14 4 18 8 8 17 17 6 23 6 8 15 36 13 50

40-44 20 20 40 14 5 19 8 8 16 17 6 23 6 8 15

45-49 18 10 28 16 19 35 14 5 19 7 8 15 16 6 23

50-54 14 17 32 19 5 24 16 18 34 14 3 17 7 7 14

55-59 15 2 16 15 13 28 19 3 22 16 14 31 14 3 16

60-64 11 9 19 26 12 38 25 18 43 39 15 54 26 19 45

65-69 18 10 28 12 5 17 41 12 53 47 13 60 61 16 77

70-74 21 1 22 37 3 40 40 2 42 80 6 86 103 10 113

75-79 7 1 7 6 3 9 30 2 32 8 4 12 65 4 69

80-84 3 4 7 6 0 6 3 3 5 22 2 25 3 3 6

85+ 7 5 11 10 9 19 9 6 14 11 6 17 1 1 1

Total 233 170 403 254 163 417 302 158 460 355 159 514 400 152 552


I-18493 Appendix B - 1

APPENDIX B

Detailed Tables – Reference Scenario

Births, Deaths, Migration




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, County

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 511 470 442 465 474

20-24 1,152 972 1,154 903 1,074

25-29 1,302 1,631 1,415 1,699 1,229

30-34 1,430 1,620 1,561 1,801 1,340

35-39 749 638 728 743 701

40-44 142 106 103 105 132

45-49 6 5 4 4 5

Total 5,291 5,441 5,407 5,720 4,956



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, North Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 56 23 17 18 19

20-24 119 45 56 26 41

25-29 111 74 60 60 38

30-34 137 80 74 74 47

35-39 73 23 32 23 25

40-44 14 5 3 4 5

45-49 1 0 0 0 0

Total 512 250 242 205 176



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 32 29 26 29 32

20-24 73 59 69 49 73

25-29 116 139 95 126 116

30-34 124 156 139 131 124

35-39 59 48 66 58 59

40-44 8 8 7 9 8

45-49 0 0 0 0 0

Total 413 439 402 402 413



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Middlesex Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 105 115 118 122 105

20-24 229 193 277 222 229

25-29 205 296 238 363 205

30-34 245 294 277 341 245

35-39 163 164 159 189 163

40-44 32 25 28 23 32

45-49 1 1 1 1 1

Total 980 1,088 1,097 1,262 980



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Thames Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 103 100 101 98 103

20-24 223 200 242 202 223

25-29 198 258 251 286 198

30-34 219 337 269 401 219

35-39 135 121 163 153 135

40-44 29 20 20 23 29

45-49 1 1 1 1 1

Total 908 1,038 1,047 1,165 908



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 140 139 118 141 140

20-24 345 328 361 280 345

25-29 482 612 553 630 482

30-34 500 530 577 609 500

35-39 222 187 211 216 222

40-44 38 34 29 32 38

45-49 2 1 1 1 2

Total 1,729 1,832 1,850 1,909 1,729



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 25 24 22 22 25

20-24 59 49 56 44 59

25-29 64 99 75 93 64

30-34 72 77 90 86 72

35-39 34 33 35 43 34

40-44 6 6 6 6 6

45-49 0 0 0 0 0

Total 261 287 283 293 261



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Births 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


15-19 45 39 37 34 45

20-24 100 88 93 75 100

25-29 118 147 128 136 118

30-34 123 133 127 137 123

35-39 58 58 57 61 58

40-44 12 8 9 8 12

45-49 0 0 0 0 0

Total 457 473 451 451 457



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, County

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (26) (95) (31) (33) (30)

15-19 (4) (4) (5) (5) (4)

20-24 (4) (4) (4) (4) (5)

25-29 (10) (11) (14) (15) (16)

30-34 (8) (9) (13) (14) (14)

35-39 (8) (8) (12) (14) (15)

40-44 (13) (14) (18) (20) (24)

45-49 (28) (30) (27) (29) (38)

50-54 (44) (46) (45) (49) (53)

55-59 (60) (62) (84) (91) (75)

60-64 (92) (95) (145) (158) (134)

65-69 (120) (124) (201) (219) (272)

70-74 (147) (151) (283) (307) (423)

75-79 (198) (213) (353) (394) (554)

80-84 (270) (295) (412) (487) (747)

85+ (581) (865) (2,179) (2,844) (1,997)

Total (1,614) (2,025) (3,826) (4,683) (4,402) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, North Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (4) (2) (3) (2) (4)

15-19 (1) (0) (0) (0) (1)

20-24 (1) (0) (0) (0) (1)

25-29 (2) (1) (1) (1) (2)

30-34 (1) (1) (1) (1) (2)

35-39 (1) (1) (1) (1) (2)

40-44 (2) (1) (2) (1) (3)

45-49 (4) (2) (2) (2) (5)

50-54 (6) (3) (4) (3) (7)

55-59 (8) (5) (8) (6) (9)

60-64 (14) (7) (12) (10) (18)

65-69 (18) (9) (18) (13) (41)

70-74 (21) (10) (26) (20) (56)

75-79 (25) (14) (29) (22) (68)

80-84 (35) (20) (33) (25) (98)

85+ (94) (97) (174) (141) (258)

Total (237) (174) (315) (249) (572) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Age Total Total Total Total Total

0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (2) (2) (2) (1) (3)

15-19 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

20-24 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

25-29 (1) (0) (1) (1) (1)

30-34 (1) (0) (1) (0) (1)

35-39 (1) (0) (1) (1) (1)

40-44 (1) (1) (1) (1) (2)

45-49 (2) (1) (2) (1) (3)

50-54 (3) (2) (3) (2) (5)

55-59 (5) (2) (4) (3) (5)

60-64 (7) (4) (7) (5) (10)

65-69 (9) (5) (11) (7) (15)

70-74 (10) (5) (14) (10) (25)

75-79 (13) (7) (18) (13) (34)

80-84 (16) (9) (17) (12) (41)

85+ (18) (30) (108) (103) (111)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Middlesex Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (5) 6 (7) (4) (6)

15-19 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

20-24 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

25-29 (2) (2) (3) (2) (4)

30-34 (2) (2) (2) (2) (3)

35-39 (1) (1) (2) (1) (3)

40-44 (2) (3) (3) (2) (4)

45-49 (6) (6) (7) (4) (9)

50-54 (9) (10) (10) (6) (12)

55-59 (13) (14) (20) (11) (19)

60-64 (21) (22) (34) (19) (32)

65-69 (28) (29) (49) (27) (59)

70-74 (33) (35) (75) (42) (101)

75-79 (44) (47) (88) (52) (130)

80-84 (59) (63) (91) (53) (175)

85+ (169) (189) (667) (429) (465)

Total (396) (418) (1,062) (655) (1,024) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Thames Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (5) (11) (3) (6) (5)

15-19 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

20-24 (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

25-29 (2) (2) (2) (2) (4)

30-34 (2) (1) (2) (2) (3)

35-39 (1) (1) (1) (2) (3)

40-44 (2) (2) (3) (3) (5)

45-49 (6) (5) (3) (4) (8)

50-54 (10) (8) (5) (7) (11)

55-59 (13) (11) (12) (17) (15)

60-64 (20) (17) (21) (29) (27)

65-69 (26) (22) (28) (43) (64)

70-74 (32) (27) (38) (53) (94)

75-79 (40) (34) (42) (61) (120)

80-84 (50) (42) (56) (76) (160)

85+ (49) (94) 167 (247) (326)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (7) (59) (10) (18) (8)

15-19 (1) (1) (1) (3) (1)

20-24 (1) (1) (1) (2) (1)

25-29 (3) (3) (5) (9) (5)

30-34 (2) (3) (5) (9) (4)

35-39 (3) (3) (5) (9) (5)

40-44 (4) (5) (6) (12) (7)

45-49 (8) (9) (9) (16) (10)

50-54 (12) (13) (15) (28) (15)

55-59 (15) (17) (27) (49) (21)

60-64 (22) (25) (45) (83) (39)

65-69 (30) (33) (62) (113) (75)

70-74 (39) (44) (86) (160) (118)

75-79 (57) (63) (118) (220) (163)

80-84 (85) (95) (154) (287) (222)

85+ (224) (248) (960) (1,701) (555)

Total (513) (619) (1,511) (2,720) (1,250) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (1) (7) (2) (0) (3)

15-19 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

20-24 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

25-29 (0) (1) (1) 0 (0)

30-34 (0) (0) (1) 0 (0)

35-39 (0) (0) (1) 0 (1)

40-44 (1) (1) (1) (0) (1)

45-49 (1) (1) (2) (0) (1)

50-54 (2) (2) (3) (0) (1)

55-59 (2) (3) (6) (0) (2)

60-64 (3) (4) (11) (2) (3)

65-69 (5) (6) (15) (3) (7)

70-74 (5) (6) (17) (5) (11)

75-79 (8) (10) (23) (5) (13)

80-84 (9) (11) (20) (6) (16)

85+ 22 (60) (208) (69) (186)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (1) (17) (2) (2) (1)

15-19 (0) (1) (0) (0) (0)

20-24 (0) (1) (0) (0) (0)

25-29 (0) (2) (1) (1) (1)

30-34 (0) (1) (1) (1) (1)

35-39 (0) (1) (1) (1) (1)

40-44 (1) (2) (1) (1) (1)

45-49 (1) (4) (2) (1) (1)

50-54 (2) (7) (3) (2) (2)

55-59 (3) (9) (7) (4) (3)

60-64 (4) (14) (13) (8) (5)

65-69 (5) (20) (18) (11) (10)

70-74 (7) (22) (25) (15) (17)

75-79 (10) (36) (34) (21) (24)

80-84 (15) (52) (37) (22) (33)

85+ (46) (137) (212) (145) (91)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Deaths 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Newbury

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 (0) (4) (0) (0) (0)

15-19 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

20-24 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

25-29 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

30-34 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

35-39 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

40-44 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

45-49 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

50-54 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)

55-59 (0) (1) (0) (0) (0)

60-64 (0) (1) (0) (1) (0)

65-69 (0) (1) (1) (1) (1)

70-74 (1) (2) (2) (2) (1)

75-79 (1) (2) (1) (1) (2)

80-84 (0) (3) (4) (6) (3)

85+ (2) (9) (18) (9) (5)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, County

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 570 2,380 849 523 352

15-19 77 323 131 81 42

20-24 (777) (3,248) (936) (576) (474)

25-29 (924) (3,863) (1,287) (792) (615)

30-34 241 1,007 371 229 225

35-39 619 2,587 1,078 664 661

40-44 300 1,253 441 272 290

45-49 109 456 139 85 97

50-54 42 178 66 41 38

55-59 (66) (276) (91) (56) (39)

60-64 (67) (281) (110) (68) (44)

65-69 (68) (286) (150) (92) (75)

70-74 (82) (344) (222) (137) (122)

75-79 (211) (881) (375) (231) (237)

80-84 (238) (993) (400) (246) (198)

85+ 124 518 (1,783) (1,098) (1,568)

Total (352) (1,470) (2,280) (1,403) (1,667) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, North Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 15 63 20 12 8

15-19 (5) (20) (6) (4) (2)

20-24 (114) (478) (115) (71) (52)

25-29 (144) (600) (191) (117) (86)

30-34 25 106 44 27 17

35-39 29 121 50 31 29

40-44 3 14 5 3 3

45-49 9 38 7 5 6

50-54 (5) (21) (4) (3) (2)

55-59 (18) (76) (30) (18) (9)

60-64 (18) (74) (27) (17) (10)

65-69 (31) (128) (49) (30) (30)

70-74 (29) (121) (59) (37) (34)

75-79 (26) (109) (49) (30) (29)

80-84 (16) (66) (25) (16) (19)

85+ 77 322 (179) (110) (257)

Total (247) (1,030) (608) (374) (466) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Lucan Biddulph

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 3 11 4 2 1

15-19 (22) (90) (27) (17) (10)

20-24 (71) (296) (80) (49) (38)

25-29 (42) (176) (55) (34) (26)

30-34 44 183 56 34 26

35-39 36 152 62 38 34

40-44 (7) (29) (10) (6) (4)

45-49 (35) (147) (40) (25) (23)

50-54 (29) (122) (33) (20) (17)

55-59 (19) (79) (23) (14) (10)

60-64 (24) (100) (36) (22) (15)

65-69 (22) (91) (34) (21) (15)

70-74 (20) (84) (39) (24) (22)

75-79 (11) (45) (24) (14) (14)

80-84 (11) (46) (15) (9) (11)

85+ 41 171 (109) (67) (45)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Middlesex Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 216 901 335 206 147

15-19 68 283 105 64 46

20-24 (164) (686) (235) (145) (121)

25-29 (246) (1,028) (387) (238) (199)

30-34 33 138 58 36 37

35-39 248 1,037 443 273 302

40-44 157 658 232 143 159

45-49 58 243 72 45 50

50-54 37 154 45 28 24

55-59 (14) (59) (20) (13) (9)

60-64 25 107 46 28 21

65-69 (9) (40) (15) (9) (4)

70-74 (50) (209) (112) (69) (67)

75-79 (49) (204) (89) (55) (59)

80-84 (39) (163) (54) (33) (43)

85+ 101 422 (297) (183) (539)

Total 372 1,554 126 78 (253) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Thames Centre

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 260 1,086 384 236 166

15-19 51 212 74 46 32

20-24 (163) (681) (224) (138) (112)

25-29 (267) (1,117) (397) (244) (195)

30-34 31 130 56 35 34

35-39 161 674 304 187 195

40-44 88 370 140 86 100

45-49 66 274 65 40 47

50-54 40 166 41 25 26

55-59 21 88 36 22 14

60-64 (41) (173) (70) (43) (24)

65-69 (54) (224) (104) (64) (57)

70-74 (27) (114) (54) (33) (34)

75-79 (52) (215) (93) (58) (68)

80-84 (52) (219) (93) (58) (69)

85+ 109 457 (327) (201) (95)

Total 171 713 (261) (161) (40) *included with the 15-49 cohorts



County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Strathroy Caradoc

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 37 154 51 31 28

15-19 20 86 28 17 16

20-24 (111) (465) (118) (73) (85)

25-29 (85) (356) (90) (56) (65)

30-34 114 477 163 100 88

35-39 87 365 121 75 67

40-44 45 187 55 34 34

45-49 34 141 55 34 26

50-54 16 68 30 18 12

55-59 (15) (61) (25) (16) (11)

60-64 4 18 6 4 3

65-69 63 264 70 43 49

70-74 63 262 76 47 48

75-79 (33) (139) (57) (35) (26)

80-84 (92) (383) (174) (107) (70)

85+ (324) (1,354) (569) (350) (249)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Adelaide Metcalfe

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 22 90 32 19 (8)

15-19 (19) (79) (25) (15) (34)

20-24 (61) (255) (70) (43) (25)

25-29 (43) (179) (51) (32) 5

30-34 6 24 10 6 27

35-39 30 124 53 32 11

40-44 11 45 17 10 (4)

45-49 (4) (19) (5) (3) (0)

50-54 (1) (5) (1) (1) 1

55-59 2 7 3 2 (4)

60-64 (1) (4) (8) (5) (14)

65-69 (10) (43) (22) (13) (19)

70-74 (10) (43) (21) (13) (11)

75-79 (7) (29) (7) (5) (6)

80-84 2 9 (5) (3) 43

85+ 33 138 (76) (47) (251)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Southwest Middlesex

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 17 71 22 14 8

15-19 (12) (50) (14) (9) (5)

20-24 (82) (342) (87) (53) (38)

25-29 (91) (380) (110) (67) (48)

30-34 (13) (53) (18) (11) (6)

35-39 30 124 47 29 25

40-44 2 10 4 2 2

45-49 (14) (59) (13) (8) (7)

50-54 (11) (44) (9) (6) (4)

55-59 (18) (75) (25) (15) (8)

60-64 (21) (88) (34) (21) (11)

65-69 (9) (40) (13) (8) (7)

70-74 (14) (56) (30) (19) (18)

75-79 (31) (128) (51) (32) (30)

80-84 (29) (121) (29) (18) (24)

85+ 85 356 (223) (138) (107)




County of Middlesex Population Projections – Migration 2001 to 2026, Reference Scenario, Newbury

Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026


0-4* 0 0 0 0 0

5-9* 0 0 0 0 0

10-14 1 4 2 1 1

15-19 (4) (19) (5) (3) (2)

20-24 (10) (43) (7) (5) (3)

25-29 (6) (27) (6) (4) (2)

30-34 0 2 2 1 1

35-39 (3) (11) (2) (1) (1)

40-44 (0) (1) (0) (0) (0)

45-49 (4) (15) (2) (1) (1)

50-54 (4) (18) (3) (2) (2)

55-59 (5) (21) (7) (4) (1)

60-64 8 35 13 8 5

65-69 3 15 16 10 9

70-74 5 22 17 10 15

75-79 (3) (12) (4) (2) (5)

80-84 (1) (5) (5) (3) (4)

85+ 2 8 (3) (2) (26)

Total (21) (87) 4 3 (16) *included with the 15-49 cohorts


I-18493 Appendix C - 1

APPENDIX C

Place of Work



I-18493 Appendix C - 2

PLACE OF WORK STATISTICS County of Middlesex Total employed labour force 15 years and over by place of work status

Newbury Southwest Middlesex

Strathroy-Caradoc

Thames Centre

Middlesex Centre

North Middlesex

Adelaide Metcalfe

Lucan Biddulph

180 3275 9760 6905 7710 3665 1615 2360

Males 90 1745 5195 3735 4340 2060 905 1200

Usual place of work 80 1080 4045 2790 2840 1275 450 845

In Census SubDivision of residence 10 285 1760 460 355 265 25 190

In different Census SubDivision 75 795 2290 2325 2480 1010 430 655

In same Census Division 35 500 1830 1715 2110 675 320 445

At home 0 370 440 485 750 470 325 195

Outside Canada 0 15 10 20 30 15 0 10

No fixed workplace address 10 280 705 445 720 310 125 155

Females 90 1530 4565 3165 3375 1600 710 1165

Usual place of work 90 1190 3900 2660 2730 1275 495 935

In Census SubDivision of residence 15 465 2090 575 355 420 60 195

In different Census SubDivision 75 720 1815 2085 2370 855 440 740

In same Census Division 70 530 1635 1665 2245 655 390 600

At home 0 240 455 415 545 280 190 200

Outside Canada 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0

No fixed workplace address 0 85 210 90 100 30 25 20

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

A census division is a group of neighbouring municipalities joined together for the purposes of regional planning and managing common services

A census subdivision is a municipality or an area treated as equivalent to a municipality for statistical purposes

county of middlesex population projection, 2001 - · pdf filecounty of middlesex population...

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