coupled & ocean modelling @ mpi-m johann jungclaus max-planck-institut für meteorologie
TRANSCRIPT
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Coupled & Ocean Modelling @ MPI-M
Johann Jungclaus
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
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Ocean model development at MPI-M has presently two foci:
Maintain and improve the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) as part of the MPI-M Earth System Model (E. Maier-Reimer, H.Haak, J. Jungclaus, J-S. v. Storch)
Develop a new ocean model in co-operation with new atmosphere model ICON (P. Korn, S. Lorenz, PhD students)
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Momentum, Energy, H2O, CO2
LandHD
JSBACH
AtmosphereECHAM5/6
Solar variations
Volcanic aerosolCO2 emissions
Natural forcingAnthropogenic forcing
Land use change
CH4, N2O, CFC conc.
OceanMPIOM
HAMOCC
The MPI-M Earth System Model
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• ECHam5/6 (Roeckner et al., 2003), interactive runoff and glacier calving scheme.
• Land surface JSBACH (Raddatz et al., 2007), Dynamic Vegetation (Brovkin et al., 2009)
• New Radiation• Resolution: T31L19, T63L47, T127/L95, …..
• OASIS 3.0 coupler
• MPIOM
The MPI-M Earth System Model
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• MPIOM (Marsland et al., 2003), • C-Grid, z-level, partial cells, BBL parameterization• Isopycnal diffusion, GM (Gent et al., 1995; Griffies et al., 1998)• Vertical mixing: PP and mixed layer wind mixing• Hibler-type sea ice model incl. snow and fractional ice cover• Conformal mapping grid: dipole or tripole• Ocean biogeochemistry module HAMOCC5 (Wetzel et al., 2007)
MPIOM
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dipole global application:
GR3.0 and GR1.5
dipole regional application
MPIOM- grid set-upsdipole grid
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Tri-polar, quasi-homogeneous
1°, 0.4°, 0.1°
tripole grid set-up
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Paleo applications
PETM (55 Ma)
PhD thesis M. Heinemann
dipole grid
Miocene (15 Ma)
PhD thesis M. Krapp
tripole grid
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Resolution mattersGriffies et al., 2009
MPIOM: TP04
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Griffies et al., 2009
MPIOM: TP04
Resolution matters (sometimes…)
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Applications
• long (and, or many) integrations with effective low-resolution ESM (T31/GR3)
• Ensemble simulations of the Last Millennium
• Multi-millennia transient experiments (e.g. Holocene)
• Sensitivity experiments in paleo environment (e.g., PETM, Miocene)
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Example: Last Millennium
• first ensemble simulations over the last 1200 years using comprehensive ESM including interactive carbon cycle. (In total, almost 20000 years of data!)
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HadCRUT2vCRUTEM2vExpt. 1 Expt. 2
Expt. 4 Expt. 2
Expt. 3
anomalies w.r.t. 1961-1991 mean
•Simulation captures warming trend over 19th/20th century
•Observed multidecadal variations partly due to internal variability
Northern Hemisphere temperatures:the instrumental period
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Northern Hemisphere temperatures:the last 1200 years
solid: 5 full forcing expts. (Krivova solar 0.1%)
dashed: 3 full forcing expts. (Bard solar 0.25%)
• Range of variability consistent with observations, but LIA cooling less pronounced than in reconstruction for 0.1%
Background shading: overlay of reconstructions (after IPCC, 2007)
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Simulation of CO2 evolution
Solid lines: full forcing ensemble E1 (Krivova solar, 0.1%)
dashed lines: full forcing ensemble E2 (Bard solar, 0.25%)
Grey shading: Overlap of reconstructions (C. Reick)
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Applications
• Decadal prediction and ocean initialization • No data assimilation for MPIOM available, but
benefit from Detlef Stammer‘s GECCO work in the neighborhood
• Presently testing several „assimilation“ techniques in AR4 set-up (ECHAM5 T63L31 MPIOM GR1.5L40) : SST (Keenlyside et al., 2008),
• GECCO (Pohlmann et al., 2009)• Forced (NCEP) MPIOM runs (Matei et al., in
prep.)
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SAT hind minus 20C COR skill for lead time 1yr
NCEP GECCO
Gain in skill
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SAT hind minus 20C COR skill for yr6-10
NCEP GECCO
Gain in skill
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STORM-project (J.S. v. Storch)
- using IPCC AR5 model system (ECHAM6/MPIOM-TP)
- long climate change simulations (i.e., 20 century run + 21 century run with RCP4.5 forcing)
- horizontal resolution in the ocean: ~ 1/10 degree (10km)
- horizontal resolution in the atmosphere: ~ 50 km
Scientific foci (among others):
- Climate sensitive & dependence of climate sensitive on resolution (e.g. whether and to what extent will climate projections change due to enhanced resolution)
- Impact studies (e.g. changes of extreme value statistics…)
MPIOM at high resolution (0.1°)
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a snapshot of horizontal velocity speed at 57 m [m/s]
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• MPI-M will run CMIP5 experiments 20th century, projections, and decadal forecast using ECHAM6 T127/L95 MPIOM 0.4/L80 „HR“
• Paleo and historic (last millennium) will be run at T63L47 (ECHAM6) and 1°L40 (MPIOM) „LR“
• Expts with interactive chemistry will be run at „LR“ at FZ Jülich (M. Schultz)
ECHAM6/MPIOM in CMIP5
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CO2 CONCENTRATION 2423
control 1850 C 500
1850-2005 C+2*T1 3*156
RCP4.5 2006-2100 C+2*T1 3*95
RCP4.5 2101-2300 T1 200
RCP8.5 2006-2100 C+2 3*95
RCP8.5 2101-2300 T2 200
RCP2.6 2006-2100 T1+2 3*95
RCP2.6 2101-2300 T2 200
CMIP5 ECHAM6/MPIOM-HR
C: CORE, T1: Tier1, T2: Tier 2
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CO2 Emission 1003
Control C-cycle C 250
1850-2005 C-cycle C 156
RCP8.5 2006-2100 C-c. C 95
1850-2005 decoupled T1 156
RCP8.5 2006-2100 dec. T1 95
1850-2005 rad. only T2 156
RCP8.5 2006-2100 rad. T2 95
CMIP5 ECHAM6/MPIOM-HR
C: CORE, T1: Tier1, T2: Tier 2
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Initialized decadal 2700
Initialized, 10 yr 30*C+70*T1 100*10
Initialized, 30 yr 6*C+14*T1 20*30
Initialized - volcanoe 15*T1+35 50*10
Initialized + volcanoe 3*T1+7 10*10
CMIP5 ECHAM6/MPIOM-HR
C: CORE, T1: Tier1, T2: Tier 2
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Paleo: PMIP3 6000
control mid holocene 2000
control LGM 2000
Control Millennium 2000
1400
Mid holocene T1 100
LGM T1 100
Last Millennium T2 1200
Total 7400
CMIP5 ECHAM6/MPIOM-LR
C: CORE, T1: Tier1, T2: Tier 2
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Working fields
• Tides (E. Maier-Reimer, M. Müller)
• New sea ice model (D. Notz)
• Vertical mixing (E. Exarchou, J. v. Storch, JHJ)
• Adaptation for high resolution (0.1° or higher) models (non-hydrostatic, non-boussinesq (E. Maier-Reimer))
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Tides
• Ephemeridic module of Thomas et al. [2001] implemented in MPIOM
• Analytical ephemerides for the sun and moon calculated with sufficient accuracy for tidal applications (~0.1‘ for the sun, 1-2‘ for the moon) [van Flandern and Plukkinen, 1998]
• Real-time forcing of complete lunisolar tidal potential
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New sea-ice model
• A representation of the frazil-pancake cycle and the associated brine release
• An improved representation of salt fluxes from ice during growth and decay
• Multi-layer, multi-category sea-ice thermodynamics
• Improved albedo scheme (Pedersen et al., 2009)
• Dynamics on triangular grid for ICON is planned
The new sea-ice model will include:
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• Coupled atmosphere & ocean model on identical grid type• Icosahedral grid: unstructured grid that avoids problems of
lat/lon grids: pole singularity, non-uniformity of grid cells• Collaboration with German Weather Service (DWD)• Includes data assimilation• Joint pool of physics packages • From short & local to long & global time-space scales weather
and climate prediction
• Local model refinement: horizontal & vertical
• regional/local modelling
• covering hydrostatic & nonhydrostatic regime
ICON: MPI-M's Next Generation Climate Model
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ICON Development Branches
2D shallow water
3D hydrostatic atmos. dynamical core
ICOHAM as successor of
ECHAM
3D non-hydrostatic numerics
3D hydrostatic ocean
+ ECHAM physics
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The ICON Grid
Concept of patches for refinement for domain decompositionUnstructured grid minimize distance between neighbors in memory only relationships between neighbors are stored: no traditional array data structure
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Ocean model versus Atmosphere model
one external modea few fast vertical modes, vertical mode decomposition every time step
Elliptic problem for...
operators: divergence, vorticity, gradientelliptic solver, time stepping
Commons
Equations
z levelshybrid terrain followingVertical coordinate
Hydrostatic OceanHydrostatic AtmosphereModel
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Primitive equation model with a free surface Discretization of vector-invariant form of momentum equation
Spatial Discretization: C-type staggering Normal velocity: at triangle edges Temperature & salinity: at triangle centers Free surface elevation: at triangle centers
Temporal Discretization: semi-implicit two-timelevel scheme
ICON Ocean model
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Dynamics
1st version of dynamical core implemented and tested
Physics (work-in-progress)
Forcing Momentum/heat/fresh-water fluxes (CORE-project)Bulk formulas
ParametrizationsVertical mixing, convection Grid-dependent physics (GM) requires substantial development
ICON Ocean model
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Ocean data assimilation/state estimation using adjoint method
Adjoint model via adjoint compiler adjoint compiler as integral part of ICON-Ocean model automatic generation of adjoint code
Strategy ICON-Ocean development parallel with adjoint development collaboration with Prof. U. Naumann (RWTH Aachen)
Current status adjoint ICON-shallow-water model available
ICON Ocean model: further development
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