course on biod, module 1. lesson 5 what is happening to eco

7/28/2019 Course on BioD, Module 1. Lesson 5 What is Happening to Eco

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A course for Planners &Decision-Makers

M1L5S1

Prepared by Micael Junkov 2008/09EPU/Danidas Environmental Programme The Biodiversity Component

Biodiversity

Module 1: Setting the stage for biodiversity

Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

NRE


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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment(MA)

The MA is the most comprehensive survey everinto the state of the planet. It was drawn up by1,360 researchers from 95 nations over four yearsfrom 2001 to 2005.

The MA is somewhat unique in definingecosystems in terms of the "services", orbenefits, that people get from them.

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Findings Full slideshow

Findings 20-minutepresentation

Findings

Animated slides

The following is an abridged presentation prepared for thepurpose of this course (i.e. reduced number of slides andmodification of a few for the purpose of clarification)

Please consult original presentations at:

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspxM1L5S3

+
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspxhttp://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx


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MA conceptual framework

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DirectDrivers

Indirect

Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human

Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use

Species introduction or removal

Technology adaptation and use

External inputs (e.g., irrigation)

Resource consumption

Climate change

Natural physical and biological

drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic

Economic (globalization, trade,

market and policy framework)

Sociopolitical (governance and

institutional framework)

Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being andPoverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life

Health

Good Social Relations

Security Freedom of choice and action

Life on Earth:Biodiversity



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What was unique?

M1L5S5

A multi

-

scale assessment



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Core questions

1. What is the rate and scale of ecosystemchange?

2. What are the consequences of ecosystemchange for the services provided by ecosystemsand for human-well being?

3. How might ecosystems and their services

change over the next 50 years?4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and

enhance their contributions to human well-being?

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment M1L5S6


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Main Findings

1. Humans have radicallyaltered ecosystems in last50 years.

M1L5S7Millennium Ecosystem Assessment


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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Year

1 billion in 1800

4 billion in 1975

2 billion in 1920

6.5 billion in 2005

World Population (billions)

Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau M1L5S8


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100

Year

$1 trillion in 1900

$10 trillion in 1967

$52 trillion in 2003

World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars)

Source: DeLong 1998

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Source: NASA

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11/34M1L5S11Millennium Ecosystem Assessment


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Temperate Grasslands &

Woodlands

Temperate Broadleaf

ForestTropical Dry Forest

Tropical Grasslands

Tropical ConiferousForest

Mediterranean Forests

Tropical Moist Forest

0 50 100

Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

Habitat Loss to 1990

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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M d l 1 S tti th tL 5 Wh t i h i t t i ?


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Some ecosystem recovery now underwaybut high rates of conversion continue

Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditionssimilar to their pre-conversion states

Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasingfor specific ecosystems and regions



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Year of Peak Fish HarvestHarvest peak

Pre-peak

Post-peak

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

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Scale of change

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20% of the worlds coralreefs were lost and morethan 20% degraded

35% of mangrove area has

been lost in the last severaldecades

Amount of water inreservoirs quadrupled

since 1960



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17/34M1L5S17Millennium Ecosystem Assessment


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Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone

Source: NOAA M1L5S18


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280

300

320

340

360

380

400

1954 1969 1983 1998 2012

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

Source: Keeling and Whorf, 2005.

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-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Global Surface Temperature (oC)Relative to 1890-1900 mean

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

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g gpp g y

The balance sheet

Crops

Livestock

Aquaculture

Carbon sequestration

Capture fisheries

Wild foods

Wood fuel

Genetic resources

Biochemicals

Fresh Water

Air quality regulationRegional & local climate

regulation

Erosion regulation

Water purification

Pest regulation

Pollination

Natural Hazard

regulationSpiritual & religious

Aesthetic values

Timber

Fiber

Water regulation

Disease regulation

Recreation & ecotourism

Enhanced Degraded Mixed

Bottom Line: Some 60% of Ecosystem

Services are Degraded M1L5S21Millennium Ecosystem Assessment


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Forest

Boreal

Temperate

Tropical

Dryland

Temperate grassland

Mediterranean

Tropical grassland& savanna

Desert

Inland water

Coastal

Marine

Island

Mountain

Polar

Habitatchange

Climatechange

Invasivespecies

Overexploitation

Pollution(N, P)

Low HighImpact during last Century Currenttrend

IncreasingContinueDecreasing Very rapid increase




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Main Findings


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2. Changes have brought gainsbut at growing costs thatthreaten achievement ofdevelopment goals. Degradation of many ecosystem services

Increased risk of abrupt changes inecosystems

Growing harm to poor people




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Economic and health costs ofdegradation can be substantial

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Introduction of Zebramussels into aquaticecosystems in the US

$100 million annual coststo power industry

Cost of damage of UKagriculture to otherecosystem services

$2.6 billion (10% of farmreceipts)


Cost of collapse of thecod fishery in Canada

$2 billion in incomesupport and retraining;loss of tens of thousandsof jobs



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Atlantic Cod off Newfoundland

Fisheries collapse

Eutrophication1

Coral reef regimeshifts

Disease emergence

Species

introductions Regional climate

change

Increased likelihood of abrupt changes(established but incomplete evidence)

1 The process by which a lake, pond, or stream becomes eutrophic which means having waters rich in mineral and organic nutrients that

promote a proliferation of plant life, especially algae , which reduces the dissolved oxygen content and often causes the extinction of otherorganisms (www.thefreedictionary.com/dict.asp?Word=Eutrophication).



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Croatia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Timber and

fuelwood

Grazing

NTFPs

Recreation and

hunting

Watershedprotection

Carbon

sequestration

Passive use

values

Italy

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Timber and

fuelwood

Grazing

NTFPs

Recreation and

hunting

Watershedprotection

Carbon

sequestration

Passive use

values

Economic Value ($ per hectare) Photo: W. Reid

Forests in Italy Forests in Croatia

Economic value of non-marketedservices can be high



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Many services are public goods

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Fiber

Food

Spiritual & religious

Freshwater

Genetic Resources

Climate regulation

Water purification

Disease regulation

Flood/Fire regulation

Recreation & tourism

Aesthetic

Economic Value ($)

Economic

Valuation

Difficult or

impossible

Easy

Private

Benefit

Capture

Difficult

Easy

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?




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Impact on Poor andMarginalized People

Poor people are mostdependent on ecosystemservices and most

vulnerable to degradationof the services

Photo credit: Uittapron Juntawonsup/UNEP

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment M1L5S28



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Main Findings


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2. Changes have brought gainsbut at growing costs thatthreaten achievement ofdevelopment goals.

3. Degradation of ecosystemscould grow worse but can bereversed.




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Response options?

Multi-scale response is needed Multiple stakeholders have different needs.

Responses are available to address the issuesidentified.

Responses insufficient unless relevant directand indirect drivers of change are addressed.

Cross-sectoral responses and more systematicconsideration of trade-offs are required


The ecosystem approach providesprinciples for integration across scalesand across different responses.



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Conclusions Humans have changed most ecosystems beyond

recognition in a dramatically short space oftime. Some 60% of the ecosystem services thatsupport life on Earth are being degraded or usedunsustainably.

Scientists warn that the harmful consequencesof this degradation could grow significantlyworse in the next 50 years.

The MA observed that ecosystem approachesprovide an important framework for assessingbiodiversity and ecosystem services, and forevaluating and implementing potential

responses. M1L5S31



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29 wire services ran the story of the release of the findings innine languages

Hundreds of newspapers around the world carried the story

Front page news in much of Europe as well as China, Brazil,etc.

Evening TV broadcast news in UK, Italy, India, and on CNN-International

BBCs Earth Report ran two half-hour programs

Economist cover story

Launch coverage

Melbourne, Australia, March 30, 2005

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References

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis.World Resources Institute, Washington,DC.WCMC, 2004

Web linksMillennium Ecosystem Assessment slideshows

www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx

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http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx


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Thank you!

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