covering second quarter 2018 volume 18, number 3 san diego ... · clouds are on the horizon,...

Covering Second Quarter 2018 Volume 18, Number 3

San Diego Auto OutlookComprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market

Market Summary

Source: IHS Markit.

Annual Trend in County Market

Historical Data Source: IHS Markit.

YTD '17 YTD '18 % Chg. Mkt. Share

thru June thru June '17 to '18 YTD '18

TOTAL 77,384 74,503 -3.7%

Car 36,007 31,924 -11.3% 42.8%

Light Truck 41,377 42,579 2.9% 57.2%

Domestic 20,790 20,835 0.2% 28.0%

European 11,444 10,981 -4.0% 14.7%

Japanese 38,982 36,727 -5.8% 49.3%

Korean 6,168 5,960 -3.4% 8.0%

126166139287 146844

161240 162239 157017 152500

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Forecast

New

ligh

t veh

icle

regi

stra

tions

Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for June ‘18 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2012 thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2018.

FORECAST

County New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018

Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market:

1. County new retail registrations declined 3.7% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market was up by less than 1%. (Note: June figures were estimated).

2. As shown on the graph below, the market has flattened during the past several years, but sales have remained at elevated levels.

3. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 152,500 units, down slightly from 2017.

4. Light truck market share increased from 53.5% during the first six months of 2017 to 57.2% this year.

5. Registrations for Domestic brands were up 0.2% so far this year, better than the 3.7% overall industry decrease.

6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 11.4% thru May of this year, up from last year.

7. Three biggest segments in the county are Compact Car, Compact SUV, and Mid Size SUV.

8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations dur-ing the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Alfa Romeo, Tesla, Volvo, Mitsubishi, and Land Rover.

9. County market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet, and Nissan.

10. Top ten selling vehicles in county market: Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Tesla Model 3, Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, and Nissan Rogue.

Market Outlook for next two years:New vehicle sales should remain above average;

uncertainties increasing

Strong economic growth, rising em-ployment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pres-sures are concerns for the market.

San Diego Auto Outlook

38,524

38,770

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

2Q avg.('13 to '17)

2Q '18

Quarterly new retail light vehicle registrations

Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18*

County -4.6% -4.2% -6.8% -0.7%

U.S. -2.9% 0.9% -1.4% 2.1%

-10.0%

-7.5%

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

% c

hang

e ve

rsus

yea

r ear

lier

San DiegoAuto Outlook

Covering Second Quarter 2018

Published by:Auto Outlook, Inc.

PO Box 390Exton, PA 19341

Phone: 800-206-0102EMail: [email protected]

Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz

Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express per-mission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to San Diego Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: IHS Markit.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the con-tent of San Diego Auto Outlook

Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., July 2018

County Market U.S. Market

Percent change in registrations

YTD '18 thru June* vs. YTD '17-3.7% 0.4%

Passenger car market share

YTD '18 thru June*42.8% 31.9%

Domestic brand market share

YTD '18 thru June*28.0% 42.0%

Top 10 brands and market share

YTD '18 thru June*

First Toyota 17.4% Toyota 13.2%

Second Honda 12.5% Ford 11.8%

Third Ford 9.9% Chevrolet 11.3%

Fourth Chevrolet 6.3% Honda 10.2%

Fifth Nissan 6.2% Nissan 6.5%

Sixth Subaru 4.5% Jeep 6.1%

Seventh Kia 4.4% Subaru 4.4%

Eighth Jeep 3.7% Hyundai 3.7%

Ninth Hyundai 3.5% Kia 3.5%

Tenth Mazda 3.4% GMC 3.3%

*June 2018 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Markit

QUARTERLY TREND

Percent Change in County and U.S. New Vehicle Market

MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS

County Registrations Approached 39,000 Units in 2Q ‘18

QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE

2Q 2018 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years

* Figures for the Second Quarter of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. Source: IHS Markit.

MARKET TRACKER: COUNTY MARKET VERSUS U.S.

Car Share in County Exceeds U.S.

* Figures for 2Q 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. Source: IHS Markit.

County registrations exceeded the average for the previous five years in the Second Quarter of this year.

The county market declined slightly in 2Q ‘18.


Non Luxury SUVs, 32%

Small Cars, 23%

Pickups and Vans, 15%

Luxury & Sports Cars, 10%

Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars,

10%

Luxury SUVs, 10%

Non Luxury SUVs, 29%

Small Cars, 27%

Pickups and Vans, 15%

Luxury & Sports Cars, 9%

Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars,

11%

Luxury SUVs, 9%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Q315

Q415

Q116

Q216

Q316

Q416

Q117

Q217

Q317

Q417

Q118

Q218*

Mar

ket S

hare

Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Electric

New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations

Top 10 Selling Models in County - YTD '18 thru May

Rank Model Regs.

1 Tesla Model 3 1432

2 Toyota Prius 1100

3 Kia Niro 385

4 Ford Fusion 321

5 Hyundai Ioniq 264

6 Tesla Model S 259

7 Toyota RAV4 244

8 Toyota Camry 238

9 Chevrolet Bolt 230

10 Chevrolet Volt 202

Hybrid/electric vehicle market share in Q2 ‘18:

13.4%Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share

(includes hybrid and electric vehicles)

The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the county. *Second Quarter 2018 includes April and May. Source: IHS Markit.

MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Electric Vehicle Market Share is 4.1% So Far This Year

MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENT SHARES

Non Luxury SUV Market Share Increases to 32%

Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2017 thru May

Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2018 thru May

The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first five months of 2017 and 2018.

Source: IHS Markit. Source: IHS Markit.

Non Luxury SUV Market Share, YTD ‘17:

29%Non Luxury SUV

Market Share, YTD ‘18:

32%


-5.6%

5.6%

32.6%

32.9%

6.1%

9.4%

-1.0%

8.9%

5.1%

6.4%

-15.9%

6.5%

6.4%

22.7%

18.0%

2.9%

-6.5%

1.0%

4.8%

-21.4%

-11.9%

-11.8%

-9.4%

-8.7%

-8.3%

-6.7%

-4.4%

-3.9%

-3.4%

-3.1%

-2.9%

-2.0%

-1.3%

1.6%

2.0%

3.4%

7.0%

13.1%

-75.0% -50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0%

Nissan

Acura

Mercedes

Hyundai

Lexus

Ford

Volkswagen

Audi

Toyota

Chevrolet

GMC

Mazda

Honda

Jeep

Ram

Kia

BMW

Subaru

Land Rover

Tesla

YTD 2018 vs.YTD 2017

2nd Qtr. 2018 vs.1st Qtr. 2018

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE

Tesla Had Largest Gain So Far This Year Among Top 20 Brands

Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (Top 20 Selling Brands)YTD 2018 thru June* vs. YTD 2017, and Second Quarter 2018* vs. First Quarter 2018

The graph below provides review of brand sales performance in the county market. For the top 20 selling brands, it shows the percent change in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first six months of this year versus the same period a year earlier, and the change from the First Quarter of 2018 to the Second Quarter. Brands are shown from top to bottom based on the year-to-date percent change.

Up by more than 3% for YTD ‘18 vs. YTD ‘17:

TeslaLand Rover

SubaruBMW

Up by more than 22% in2Q ‘18 vs. 1Q ‘18:

TeslaHyundai

MercedesJeep

Source: IHS Markit. *Figures for June, 2018 were estimated.


-3756

-1798

-1519

-1474

-1147

-801

-268

-264

-216

-206

-186

-90

31

80

83

118

118

131

223

243

379

398

647

648

653

1025

1079

1596

1724

3135

-5,000 -2,500 0 2,500 5,000

Chevrolet

Jeep

GMC

Ford

Ram

Dodge

Chrysler

Cadillac

Nissan

Lincoln

Hyundai

Mitsubishi

Acura

Infiniti

Subaru

Volvo

Alfa Romeo

MINI

Porsche

Land Rover

Volkswagen

Audi

Lexus

Mercedes

Kia

BMW

Mazda

Tesla

Honda

Toyota

Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share)

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO

Toyota and Honda Are Strong Performers in County Market

*Figures for June, 2018 were estimated. Source for registration data: IHS Markit.

The graph below provides an indicator of brands that are popular in San Diego County (relative to the National standard), and those that are not. Here’s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands, each brand’s share of the U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations in the county during the first six months of

2018. This yields a “target” for the county mar-ket. Target registrations are subtracted from actual registrations to derive the measurement of sales performance.

Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Toyota, Honda, Tesla, Mazda, and BMW) are relatively

strong sellers in the county, with actual regis-trations exceeding calculated targets by large margins. For instance, Toyota registrations ex-ceeded the target by 3,135 units.

San Diego County Retail Market Performance based on registrations for YTD 2018 thru June*Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share)

TOP FIVE PERFORMING BRANDS

1. Toyota2. Honda3. Tesla

4. Mazda5. BMW


-32%

-35%

-47%

-37%

-32%

-36%

0%

-61%

-27%

-8%

-5%

-10%

-17%

-49%

-29%

-53%

-54%

-21%

-11%

-1%

7%

13%

21%

21%

22%

22%

24%

25%

31%

36%

37%

54%

66%

70%

94%

-125% -100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125%

Dodge

Acura

Nissan

GMC

Jeep

Ford

Ram

Land Rover

Toyota

Mercedes

Honda

Lexus

BMW

Chevrolet

Subaru

Audi

Kia

Mazda

Hyundai

Volkswagen

% change for light trucks

% change for cars

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE

Light Truck Registrations Increase for 16 of Top 20 Brands

The graph below shows the percent change in new retail car and light truck registrations during the first five months of 2018 versus the same period in 2015 for the top 20 selling brands in the county. Brands are positioned from top to bottom based on the change in truck registrations.

Three Year Percent Change in New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations for Top 20 Selling BrandsYTD 2018 thru May versus YTD 2015

Source: IHS Markit.

Passenger car registrations declined for 15 of the 16 brands that sell cars

Light truck registrations increased for 16 of the top 20 brands

VW light truck registrations increased by 428%.


The table below shows the top five selling models during the first five months of 2018 in 20 segments. In addition to unit registrations, it also shows each model’s market share in its re-spective segment.

Source: IHS Markit.

MODEL RANKINGS

Honda Civic is Best Selling Model in County Market

BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS

Compact Car: Honda Civic Full Size Pickup: Ford F-Series

Mid Size Car: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4

Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3 Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander

Luxury Car: BMW 5-Series Luxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX

Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share

Kia Soul 410 17.3 Honda Civic 2675 24.4 Ford Mustang 339 34.1 Toyota Camry 1637 29.3

Honda Fit 354 14.9 Toyota Corolla 1337 12.2 Dodge Challenger 214 21.5 Honda Accord 1413 25.3

Toyota IM 240 10.1 Nissan Sentra 1105 10.1 Chevrolet Camaro 189 19.0 Ford Fusion 736 13.2

Chevrolet Bolt 230 9.7 Toyota Prius 1100 10.0 Hyundai Veloster 58 5.8 Kia Optima 569 10.2

Ford Fiesta 204 8.6 Hyundai Elantra 669 6.1 Mazda MX5 56 5.6 Nissan Altima 365 6.5


Dodge Charger 193 35.2 Audi A3 170 26.4 Tesla Model 3 1432 34.9 BMW 5-Series 264 15.4

Toyota Avalon 165 30.1 BMW I3 154 23.9 BMW 3-Series 454 11.0 Tesla Model S 259 15.1

Nissan Maxima 60 10.9 Mercedes CLA-Class 152 23.6 Mercedes C-Class 349 8.5 Mercedes E-Class 211 12.3

Chrysler 300 46 8.4 BMW 2-Series 94 14.6 Lexus IS 225 5.5 Mercedes S-Class 87 5.1

Chevrolet Impala 35 6.4 Acura ILX 71 11.0 BMW 4-Series 223 5.4 Porsche 911 78 4.6


Toyota Tacoma 1986 69.3 Ford F Series 1826 41.7 Honda Odyssey 566 47.0 Ford Transit Connect Van 256 31.0

Chevrolet Colorado 437 15.3 Chevrolet Silverado 979 22.3 Chrysler Pacifica 271 22.5 Mercedes Sprinter 193 23.4

Nissan Frontier /Xe 213 7.4 Ram Pickup 846 19.3 Toyota Sienna 267 22.2 Ram Promaster 114 13.8

GMC Canyon 127 4.4 Toyota Tundra 458 10.4 Kia Sedona 69 5.7 Chevrolet Express 107 13.0

Honda Ridgeline 101 3.5 GMC Sierra 198 4.5 Dodge Caravan 31 2.6 Nissan NV 99 12.0


Honda HR-V 394 19.3 Toyota RAV4 1523 14.1 Toyota Highlander 850 12.8 Chevrolet Tahoe 177 26.4

Kia Niro 385 18.9 Honda CR-V 1514 14.0 Subaru Outback 807 12.1 GMC Yukon 100 14.9

Toyota C-HR 370 18.2 Nissan Rogue 1224 11.3 Ford Explorer 786 11.8 Ford Flex 94 14.0

Chevrolet Trax 153 7.5 Mazda CX-5 1175 10.9 Toyota 4 Runner 676 10.2 Ford Expedition 88 13.1

Jeep Renegade 138 6.8 Subaru Crosstrek 794 7.3 Jeep Grand Cherokee 654 9.8 Chevrolet Suburban 80 11.9


BMW X1 235 42.2 Lexus NX 442 18.2 Lexus RX 594 23.2 Land Rover Range Rover 136 32.2

Audi Q3 104 18.7 Mercedes GLC-Class 375 15.5 BMW X5 272 10.6 Cadillac Escalade 114 27.0

Mercedes GLA-Class 103 18.5 Audi Q5 350 14.4 Acura MDX 202 7.9 Mercedes GLS-Class 62 14.7

Infiniti QX30 45 8.1 BMW X3 238 9.8 Volvo XC90 200 7.8 Lincoln Navigator 41 9.7

BMW X2 31 5.6 Acura RDX 213 8.8 Tesla Model X 191 7.5 Infiniti QX80 29 6.9

Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Large Van

Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD '18 thru May)

Cars

Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size

Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars

Light Trucks

Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV

Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV


The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in San Diego County. Figures are shown for the Second Quarters of 2017 and 2018, and year-to-date totals. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.

Brand Registrations ReportSan Diego County New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

Second Quarter* Year to date thru June*

Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%)

2Q '17 2Q '18 % change 2Q '17 2Q '18 Change YTD '17 YTD '18 % change YTD '17 YTD '18 Change

TOTAL 39,028 38,770 -0.7 77,384 74,503 -3.7

Cars 17,992 16,660 -7.4 46.1 43.0 -3.1 36,007 31,924 -11.3 46.5 42.8 -3.7

Light Trucks 21,036 22,110 5.1 53.9 57.0 3.1 41,377 42,579 2.9 53.5 57.2 3.7

Domestic Brands 10,193 11,254 10.4 26.1 29.0 2.9 20,790 20,835 0.2 26.9 28.0 1.1

European Brands 5,702 5,640 -1.1 14.6 14.5 -0.1 11,444 10,981 -4.0 14.8 14.7 -0.1

Japanese Brands 19,924 18,702 -6.1 51.1 48.2 -2.9 38,982 36,727 -5.8 50.4 49.3 -1.1

Korean Brands 3,209 3,174 -1.1 8.2 8.2 0.0 6,168 5,960 -3.4 8.0 8.0 0.0

Acura 474 398 -16.0 1.2 1.0 -0.2 880 775 -11.9 1.1 1.0 -0.1

Alfa Romeo 39 138 253.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 59 244 313.6 0.1 0.3 0.2

Audi 804 743 -7.6 2.1 1.9 -0.2 1,491 1,425 -4.4 1.9 1.9 0.0

BMW 1,159 1,198 3.4 3.0 3.1 0.1 2,398 2,479 3.4 3.1 3.3 0.2

Buick 153 97 -36.6 0.4 0.3 -0.1 296 243 -17.9 0.4 0.3 -0.1

Cadillac 241 197 -18.3 0.6 0.5 -0.1 452 381 -15.7 0.6 0.5 -0.1

Chevrolet 2,296 2,409 4.9 5.9 6.2 0.3 4,839 4,673 -3.4 6.3 6.3 0.0

Chrysler 185 167 -9.7 0.5 0.4 -0.1 361 351 -2.8 0.5 0.5 0.0

Dodge 429 381 -11.2 1.1 1.0 -0.1 912 727 -20.3 1.2 1.0 -0.2

FIAT 177 55 -68.9 0.5 0.1 -0.4 487 134 -72.5 0.6 0.2 -0.4

Ford 4,027 3,840 -4.6 10.3 9.9 -0.4 8,018 7,349 -8.3 10.4 9.9 -0.5

Genesis 43 36 -16.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 101 97 -4.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

GMC 471 438 -7.0 1.2 1.1 -0.1 990 959 -3.1 1.3 1.3 0.0

Honda 4,835 4,790 -0.9 12.4 12.4 0.0 9,482 9,291 -2.0 12.3 12.5 0.2

Hyundai 1,541 1,480 -4.0 3.9 3.8 -0.1 2,863 2,594 -9.4 3.7 3.5 -0.2

Infiniti 433 318 -26.6 1.1 0.8 -0.3 866 664 -23.3 1.1 0.9 -0.2

Jaguar 141 97 -31.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 282 191 -32.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1

Jeep 1,356 1,506 11.1 3.5 3.9 0.4 2,770 2,733 -1.3 3.6 3.7 0.1

Kia 1,625 1,658 2.0 4.2 4.3 0.1 3,204 3,269 2.0 4.1 4.4 0.3

Land Rover 307 350 14.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 605 684 13.1 0.8 0.9 0.1

Lexus 1,118 1,058 -5.4 2.9 2.7 -0.2 2,252 2,055 -8.7 2.9 2.8 -0.1

Lincoln 158 158 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 344 276 -19.8 0.4 0.4 0.0

Maserati 53 46 -13.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 116 83 -28.4 0.1 0.1 0.0

Mazda 1,377 1,319 -4.2 3.5 3.4 -0.1 2,634 2,557 -2.9 3.4 3.4 0.0

Mercedes 1,280 1,245 -2.7 3.3 3.2 -0.1 2,475 2,184 -11.8 3.2 2.9 -0.3

MINI 198 160 -19.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 403 350 -13.2 0.5 0.5 0.0

Mitsubishi 184 239 29.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 339 432 27.4 0.4 0.6 0.2

Nissan 2,909 2,245 -22.8 7.5 5.8 -1.7 5,882 4,624 -21.4 7.6 6.2 -1.4

Other 63 47 -25.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 140 131 -6.4 0.2 0.2 0.0

Porsche 249 253 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 484 511 5.6 0.6 0.7 0.1

Ram 550 611 11.1 1.4 1.6 0.2 1,111 1,129 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.1

Subaru 1,533 1,679 9.5 3.9 4.3 0.4 3,121 3,341 7.0 4.0 4.5 0.5

Tesla 323 1,447 348.0 0.8 3.7 2.9 690 2,008 191.0 0.9 2.7 1.8

Toyota 7,057 6,655 -5.7 18.1 17.2 -0.9 13,514 12,987 -3.9 17.5 17.4 -0.1

Volkswagen 1,056 1,000 -5.3 2.7 2.6 -0.1 2,155 2,010 -6.7 2.8 2.7 -0.1

Volvo 184 312 69.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 368 562 52.7 0.5 0.8 0.3

*June 2018 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Markit.


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Used

New

9.5%16.3% 17.2%

-2.8%

18.3%

-5.3% -7.1%

-25.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or newer

Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations by Vehicle Age, YTD ‘18 thru May vs. YTD ‘17

Source: IHS Markit.

Source: IHS Markit.

San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations - Three Month Moving Average (used only includes vehicles 6 years old or newer)

Source: IHS Markit.

San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle RegistrationsYTD thru May

Registrations % Change Market Share

YTD '17 YTD '18 '17 TO '18 YTD '17 YTD '18TOTAL 134,832 137,397 1.9%

Cars 79,111 79,513 0.5% 58.7% 57.9%Light Trucks 55,721 57,884 3.9% 41.3% 42.1%

Detroit Three 46,191 45,605 -1.3% 34.3% 33.2%European 20,859 22,041 5.7% 15.5% 16.0%Japanese 60,193 61,820 2.7% 44.6% 45.0%Korean 7,589 7,931 4.5% 5.6% 5.8%

Key Trends in San Diego County

Used Vehicle Market

Market improves in 2018

Used vehicle registrations in San Diego County improved 1.9% during the first five months of 2018 versus year earlier.

Used vehicle market out-performs new

As shown on the graph below, the gap be-tween the size of the new and used vehicle markets (vehicles six year old or newer) has narrowed during the past year. Registrations for six year old or newer used vehicles in-creased 4.7% in the first five months of ‘18 versus a year earlier, while the new vehicle market declined.

Civic and Camry are top sellers

Civic and Camry were best sellers in the six year old or newer market, while Nissan Rogue, Chevrolet Cruze, Toyota Tacoma, and Nissan Sentra had large percentage increases.

Mercedes, Mazda, Kia, and VW post gains

Used registrations were up by more than 6% for each of the five brands.


9.4%7.7% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4%

4.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9%

-0.3% -0.4% -0.5%-2.7%

-3.9%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

USED VEHICLE BRAND SCOREBOARD

Mercedes Posts Largest Increase in Used Registrations

% Change in Used Registrations (top 15 brands) - YTD ‘18 thru May vs. YTD ‘17

Source: IHS Markit.

TOP SELLING MODELS

Civic and Camry are Top Sellers in Used Market

Registrations (YTD ‘18 thru May) and Percent Change (YTD ‘18 thru May vs. year earlier) Top 20 Selling Models (6 years old or newer)

-25% 0% 25% 50% 75%

-800 0 800 1600 2400

Chevrolet Cruze

Hyundai Elantra

Hyundai Sonata

Ram

Ford Fusion

Kia Optima

Toyota Tacoma

Ford Focus

BMW 3-Series

Nissan Rogue

Nissan Versa

Ford F Series

Honda Accord

Volkswagen Jetta

Nissan Altima

Toyota Prius

Nissan Sentra

Toyota Corolla

Toyota Camry

Honda Civic

Percent change in registrations (shown as thin darker blue bars)

Unit registrations (shown as wide light blue bars)

Unit regs.

% change in regs.

Source: IHS Markit.

The wide light blue bars on the graph show unit registrations (bottom axis), and the thin dark blue bars show the percent change (top axis).

covering second quarter 2018 volume 18, number 3 san diego ... · clouds are on the horizon,...

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