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COVID-19 FRESH PRODUCE UPDATE APRIL

Data to 19/04/2020

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ANALYSIS PARAMETERS Time Period

Data to 19/04/2020

Data Source

Nielsen Homescan™

Market

Total AUS, Major Supermarkets (Coles, Woolworths and Aldi), Other Supermarkets

(Costco, Asian Grocers, IGA & other Independent Supermarkets), Non Supermarkets

(Greengrocers and Markets)

Measures

Value ($), Volume (KG)

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What is Homescan?

Nielsen Homescan® is a continuous panel of 10,000 households who record all take-home packed and fresh grocery from all retail outlets. The sample is

demographically and geographically representative of the Australian household population.

Each household is equipped with either a small handheld terminal or an app on their mobile phone through which details of all purchasing are entered - product,

quantity, price and outlet. This information, along with the date of purchase, is linked with demographic details of the household and the household purchasing

history. Data are projected to represent take-home purchases of the Australian household population.

Estimates produced from Nielsen Homescan® are subject to sampling variation which means that every number reported has a standard error associated with it.

For example at a Total National level, a 40% share of trade number, will be subject to a 1% standard error at a 95% confidence interval. This implies there is a

95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies between 39 to 41%.

Use of this Report

This report is an output of MT17017 Vegetable Cluster Consumer Insights Program & MT17015 Consumer Behavioural and Retail Data for Fresh Produce and

intended for use by Hort Innovation, Australian fruit & vegetable industries, and other stakeholders in the context of understanding and diagnosing market

performance and shopper behaviour. Any reproduction of the content of the online dashboard or reports and any part thereof requires prior written permission

from Hort Innovation and/or Nielsen. Users/recipients of the dashboard and reports are asked to ensure that report data is not presented in a false or misleading

manner; that the Nielsen name is not used to imply that Nielsen is the source of any claims by Hort innovation or the recipient; that Nielsen copyright is noted

over Nielsen proprietary information; and that the reports (or the data contained therein) are not used in a manner that is detrimental or which is comparable with

the retail purchase measurement services provided by Nielsen, or in exchange for compensation of any kind.

Disclaimer

Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited (Hort Innovation) and The Nielsen Company (Australia) Limited (Nielsen) make no representations and expressly disclaim

all warranties (to the extent permitted by law) about the accuracy, completeness, or currency of information in this dashboard and reports. Reliance on any

information provided by Hort Innovation or Nielsen is at your own risk. You are required to make your own independent decisions prior to acting on the information

having regard for your own judgement and the advice of professional advisors as appropriate. To the full extent permitted by law, neither Nielsen nor Hort

Innovation will be liable, in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise, for any loss, expense or damage of any kind arising from your use or reliance on the

information contained in this dashboard and/or the reports.

Funding Statement

This project has been funded by Hort Innovation, using the MT17017 Vegetable Cluster Consumer Insights Program & the MT17015 Consumer Behavioural and

Retail Data for Fresh Produce research and development levies, and contributions from the Australian government. Hort Innovation is the grower-owned, not-for-

profit research and development corporation for Australian horticulture.

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SUMMARY • In the last 4 weeks to 19/04/2020, total grocery sales softened from last month’s peak

although were still 14.9% higher than the same time year ago. Bigger baskets driving

growth

• Produce volume growth was relatively flat; the net result of a 9.4% increase in

vegetables and a -7.8% decrease in fruit volume sales

• Average price of fruit & veg increased this month - reduced promotions from retailers

& shopping more at greengrocers/markets. Frequency of produce buying has also

softened from last month’s peak in line with total grocery trends.

• Biggest contributor to vegetable growth remained vegetables that have longer storage

life

• Fruit volume declines driven by melon, grapes and stonefruit in the last 4 weeks

• Despite online produce sales softening in prior month, in the past 4 weeks online fruit

dollar sales increased 26.7%

• Major supermarkets lost dollar share in produce to greengrocers and markets & other

supermarkets possibly due to #stay at home / shop local

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22APR2018

20MAY2018

17JUN2018

15JUL2018

12AUG2018

09SEP2018

07OCT2018

04NOV2018

02DEC2018

30DEC2018

27JAN2019

24FEB2019

24MAR2019

21APR2019

19MAY2019

16JUN2019

14JUL2019

11AUG2019

08SEP2019

06OCT2019

03NOV2019

01DEC2019

29DEC2019

26JAN2020

23FEB2020

22MAR2020

19APR2020

TOTAL GROCERY DOLLAR SALES 4 WEEKLY TO 19/04/2020

IN THE LAST MONTH AUSTRALIAN GROCERY SALES

SOFTENED

Source: Nielsen Homescan

April sales were still higher than same time year ago (+14.9%) but peak was March

4 weeks to 26/01/2020

4 weeks to 23/02/2020

4 weeks to 22/03/2020

4 weeks to 19/04/2020

Average

Frequency 13.4 13.3 15.7 13.9

Average Spend

Per Shopping Trip $42.93 $43.69 $46.99 $46.46

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IN THE 4 WEEKS TO 19 APRIL, PRODUCE VOLUME GROWTH WAS

RELATIVELY FLAT

Source: Nielsen Homescan

Average price per kg crept up again

-0.3 -1.8

0.3 0.5 1.6 2.0

-0.7

0.3

-0.5

0.7

-6.1

-3.7

4.1

1.3

6.2

8.2

4.7 3.9

1.5 1.4

3.2 2.0

5.1

8.2 9.4

5.5 4.9

13.1

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

21 APR2019

19 MAY2019

16 JUN2019

14 JUL2019

11 AUG2019

08 SEP2019

06 OCT2019

03 NOV2019

01 DEC2019

29 DEC2019

26 JAN2020

23 FEB2020

22 MAR2020

19 APR2020

TOTAL PRODUCE

Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago

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VEGETABLES REMAIN DRIVERS OF PRODUCE GROWTH, AVERAGE PRICE PER KG HAS

INCREASED ACROSS FRUIT & VEG - REDUCED PROMOTIONS FROM RETAILERS &

SHOPPING MORE AT GREENGROCERS/MARKETS

Source: Nielsen Homescan

0.5

-1.5

0.2 1.4 1.1 1.5

-2.3 -4.2 -3.7 -4.2

-13.6 -6.2 -6.0 -7.8

3.4 6.6 5.6 2.4

-1.0

4.7 5.0 3.7 7.1

13.2 16.1

5.3 9.4

22.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

21 APR2019

19 MAY2019

16 JUN2019

14 JUL2019

11 AUG2019

08 SEP2019

06 OCT2019

03 NOV2019

01 DEC2019

29 DEC2019

26 JAN2020

23 FEB2020

22 MAR2020

19 APR2020

FRUIT

Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago

-1.4 -2.1

0.1

-0.2

1.8 2.7

1.0

4.8 3.3

5.9

2.0

-0.9

14.0

9.4

8.9 10.1

4.5 5.6

3.7

-0.8

2.1 1.3

4.1 4.1 3.8

6.1

-0.6

7.7

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

21 APR2019

19 MAY2019

16 JUN2019

14 JUL 2019 11 AUG2019

08 SEP2019

06 OCT2019

03 NOV2019

01 DEC2019

29 DEC2019

26 JAN2020

23 FEB2020

22 MAR2020

19 APR2020

VEGETABLES

Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago

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BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO VEG GROWTH REMAINED

VEGETABLES THAT HAVE LONGER STORAGE LIFE

Source: Nielsen Homescan

19.4% 17.2%

13.8% 12.7%

6.2% 6.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7%

% TOP 20 CONTRIBUTION TO VEGETABLE VOLUME GROWTH 4 WEEKS TO 19/04/2020 VS YEAR AGO

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CITRUS NOW IN SEASON - BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO FRUIT

VOLUME DECLINE WERE MELONS, GRAPES & STONEFRUIT

Source: Nielsen Homescan

10.1%

5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

0.0% -0.4% -0.6% -1.0%

-5.0% -7.1%

-19.1%

-23.7%

-85.6%

% CONTRIBUTION TO FRUIT VOLUME GROWTH 4 WEEKS TO 19/04/2020 vs YEAR AGO

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VEGETABLES ARE STILL DRIVEN BY PURCHASE VOLUME PER OCCASION, FREQUENCY

HAS RETURNED TO PRE MARCH PEAK LEVELS.

FRUIT HAS LOST BUYING HOUSEHOLDS, FREQUENCY AND AVG WEIGHT PER BUYING

OCCASION IN THE PAST 4 WEEKS

Source: Nielsen Homesan

FRUIT 4 weeks to

26/01/2020 4 weeks to

23/02/2020 4 weeks to

22/03/2020 4 weeks to

19/04/2020

% Buying Households 93.5 93.5 92.3 91.3

Average Buying Occasions 5.2 5.3 5.4 4.9

Average Weight Purchased Per Buying Occasion

1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6

Average Amount Spent Per Buying Occasion

$8.70 $8.24 $7.83 $7.89

VEGETABLE

% Buying Households 96.8 96.4 96.3 96.3

Average Buying Occasions 5.6 5.6 6.0 5.6

Average Weight Purchased Per Buying Occasion

1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Average Amount Spent Per Buying Occasion

$8.40 $8.72 $8.88 $9.65

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MAJOR SUPERMARKETS LOST DOLLAR SHARE IN PRODUCE

TO GREENGROCERS & MARKETS & OTHER SUPERMARKETS

Source: Nielsen Homescan | Major Supermarkets are Coles, Woolworths & ALDI; Other Supermarkets are IGA, Costco, Asian Grocers & all other independent full service

supermarkets

Could this be the result of # stay at home/ shop local?

TOTAL

PRODUCE

Dollar

Share

Share of

Trade 52

weeks to

19/04/2020

Share of Trade

4 weeks to

22/03/2020

Share of Trade

4 weeks to

19/04/2020

Major

Supermarkets 74.5% 74.9% 70.3%

Other

Supermarkets 10.8% 10.8% 13.6%

Greengrocers

& Markets 14.7% 14.3% 16.1%

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IN THE PRIOR 4 WEEKS WE SAW ONLINE SALES DROPPING OFF AS

SUPPLY CHAIN STRUGGLED TO MEET DEMAND HOWEVER IN THE

LAST 4 WEEKS ONLINE FRUIT SALES HAVE PICKED UP

Source: Nielsen Homescan | % Growth is calculated vs same time period Year Ago

7.8% 8.9%

14.6%

21.8%

9.5%

12.8% 11.6%

13.1%

17.9%

20.9%

10.5%

5.5% 3.7%

2.5%

12.6%

25.9%

8.3%

26.7%

13 week $ Growth to19/04/2020

4 Week $ Growth to22/03/2020

4 week $ Growth19/04/2020

13 week $ Growth to19/04/2020

4 Week $ Growth to22/03/2020

4 week $ Growth19/04/2020

Total Aus Total Online

Total Produce Total Veg Total Fruit

TOTAL AUSTRALIA TOTAL ONLINE

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.