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February 4, 2021 Report COVID-19 Research Dashboard

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Page 1: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

February 4, 2021 Report

COVID-19 Research Dashboard

Page 2: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

About the COVID-19 Research Dashboard§ The COVID-19 Research Dashboard is a summary compilation of weekly and monthly

statistics from a variety of Visit California and third-party data sets:

Visit California Third-PartyAirDNA Bureau of Labor StatisticsDestination Analysts California Dept. of Public Health (CDPH)Diio Department of Homeland SecurityForwardKeys Department of LaborSMARInsights New York TimesSTR The COVID Tracking ProjectTravelClickTourism Economics

§ The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current status of recovery for the travel industry across these key indicators:ü Public Healthü Consumer Trackingü Air and Lodging Bookingü Economic

Page 3: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Table of Contents• Executive Summary• Key Indicator Matrix

• Public Health Indicators

• Consumer Indicators• Travel Readiness & Consumer Sentiment• California Activity Snapshot

• Lodging & Air Indicators

• Economic Indicators

• Appendix (HomeShare Measures)

Page 4: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Executive SummaryPublic Health Indicators Lodging/Airline Indicators§ This week two counties (Alpine and Trinity) moved to Tier

3 (Moderate.) The vast majority of counties (54) remain in the Purple tier (Tier 1/Widespread).

§ Weekly case numbers for California declined -19% compared to the previous week, continuing a downward trajectory in case numbers for the state. Deaths recorded in the state increased by 15% for the week.

§ Vaccinations have reached 7.2% of the state’s population, catching up with the overall U.S. rate of 7.8%

§ Hotel metrics were consistent with the prior week metrics. Hotel occupancy in California was 43% for the week, down -37% from the prior year.

§ Last week 4.7M air passengers were screened nationally at TSA checkpoints, down -65% on a year over year comparison basis. This figure is comparable to the prior week’s passenger numbers.

Consumer Indicators Economic Indicators§ California consumers increasingly believe the coronavirus

situation is improving. In fact, consumer sentiment on this measure reached a high point of optimism since the start of tracking in March.

§ Mindset for resuming activities and travel among Californians also showed positive trends. Fewer consumers classify themselves as “Risk Averse” for resuming activities (45% vs. 60% in late December) and a majority of Californians classified themselves as “ready to travel” for the week (55%).

§ Initial unemployment claims for California increased by 79% for the week (compared to the prior week.) Despite the week over week increase, claims remain lower compared to December levels. Claims for the U.S. were down -3% for the week.

§ Weekly visitor spending reported by Tourism Economics has been updated through week ending 1/2/21.

Current Status: Response

Page 5: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Crisis Stage: ResponseRecovery –Hyper-Local

Recovery –In-State

Recovery –Regional

Recovery –National

Recovery –International

Recovery – Post-Containment

Characteristics: Travel is counter-indicated due to infection rate and local shelter in place restrictions

California shelter in place restrictions have lifted allowing for support of local businesses

Successful containment post-shelter in place allows for greater in-state travel

Continued successful containment across Western region allows for regional travel

Significant proportions of U.S. have successful containment and new screening protocols allow domestic travel

Significant containment is achieved across international markets and new screening protocols allow int’l travel

New normal is achieved after widespread availability of a vaccine or successful treatment protocols

Public Health Indicators• Case counts• Tier status

Consumer Indicators• Travel Readiness

Indicator• Mindset toward

activities• Mindset toward travel

Lodging & Air Indicators• Lodging metrics• Air passenger data• Future booking data

Economic Indicators• Travel Spending• Unemployment• Industry Employment

Key Indicator Matrix

Page 6: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Public Health Indicators• U.S. and California COVID-19 Cases and Deaths• California County Tiers and Metrics for Reopening

Page 7: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Weekly COVID-19 Case Data:Summary

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Page 8: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly New COVID-19 Cases & Deaths• The charts below show the weekly new confirmed cases and deaths in California and week-over-week percent change. • Week-over-week changes in cases and deaths are shown to indicate the rate at which California cases/deaths are increasing or

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Page 9: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Blueprint for a Safer Economy

o Tier 1: Widespread Many non-essential business operations are closed. Counties in this tier have more than seven new COVID cases per 100,000 residents per day and a positivity rate of more than 8%.

o Tier 2: Substantial Some non-essential indoor business operations are closed. Counties in this tier have between four and seven new COVID cases per 100,000 residents per day and a positivity rate of between 5-8%.

o Tier 3: Moderate Some indoor business operations are open with modifications. Counties in this tier have between one and 3.9 new COVID cases per 100,000 residents per day and a positivity rate of between 2-4.9%.

o Tier 4: Minimal Most indoor business operations are open with modifications. Counties in this tier have less than one new COVID case per 100,000 residents per day and a positivity rate of less than 2%.

A new plan for reopening California businesses was announced on Aug. 28, taking effect on Aug. 31. Counties are assigned to one of four tiers based on two metrics: new cases per day (per capita) and positivity rate.

Page 10: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Blueprint For a Safer Economy: County Tiers

• Counties are assigned to one of four color coded tiers.

• Counties must remain in their assigned tier for three weeks and can move to the next less restrictive tier after meeting that tier’s criteria for two consecutive weeks. Counties can be assigned to a more restrictive tier if their metrics worsen for two consecutive weeks.

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Page 11: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Blueprint For a Safer Economy: Test Positivity

• Counties with a test positivity rate of more than 8% are shown in purple on the left.

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Page 12: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Blueprint For a Safer Economy: New Cases

• Counties with a case rate of more than seven new daily cases (per 100K residents) are shown in purple on the left.

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Page 13: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

National “Hotspots” for COVID-19 Cases

Source: NYT. as of 2/4/21

Page 14: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Share of Population That Has Received Vaccine

Source: NYT / Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, as of 2/4/21

Page 15: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Consumer IndicatorsTravel Readiness & Consumer Sentiment

• U.S. and California Expectations for Coronavirus Outbreak (Destination Analysts)• U.S. and California Travel Readiness Indicator (SMARInsights)• U.S. and California Mindset Toward Resuming Activities (SMARInsights)• U.S. and California Mindset Toward Travel (Destination Analysts)

Page 16: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California & U.S. Expectations for Coronavirus Outbreak• Question: In the next month, how (if at all) do you expect the severity of the coronavirus situation in the United States to change?

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Page 17: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Travel Readiness Indicator

Open to Travel

Potential Travelers

Active Travelers

Source: SMARInsights

Historic Audience

Travel Target

• Visit California’s framework to quantify readiness for travel and travel marketing

• Emphasizes consumer behavior and intent

Page 18: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

U.S. and California WeeklyTravel Readiness Indicator

• Active Travelers – consumers who report any travel behavior in the past 4 weeks

• Potential Travelers– consumers who anticipate that they will take a trip in the next 4 weeks or engage in a travel behavior in the next 2 weeks

• Open to Travel – consumers who have neither traveled yet, nor anticipate doing so in the short term, but who express an attitudinal openness to travel

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Page 19: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

2 Summary Indicators of Consumer Sentiment

• Mindset Toward Resuming Activities(SMARInsights)

• Mindset Toward Travel(Destination Analysts)

Mindset Toward Resuming Activities (Next Week)

Risk Averse =I’m going to stay

home and venture out as little as possible

Normal =I’m resuming my normal routine

Cautious =I’m leaving the house more but only visiting places where I feel safe

I'm alreadytraveling

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Mindset Toward Travel (Right Now)

Ready to Travel

Page 20: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

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U.S. vs. California Mindsets

• The top chart shows the differences between how Californians are approaching resuming activities outside of the house, vs. the U.S. overall.

• The bottom chart compares how Californians are thinking about travel* (not ready, ready, already traveling) compared to the U.S. overall.

* “Travel” measured here is likely measuring “pre-COVID” travel vs. current new/different travel behaviors.

Page 21: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

• Consumers are falling into three distinct categories that describe their current mindset towards resuming activities: the most risk aversewho are continuing to mostly stay at home; a group who are starting to cautiously venture out; and a small segment who are resuming normal activities.

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Page 22: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Mindset Toward Resuming Activities In Next Week:California Regions

• The three mindset segments are shown by region to the left.

• There are distinct differences in mindset by region.

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Page 23: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California & U.S. Mindset Toward Travel• The “Ready to Travel” mindset segment includes consumers already traveling or otherwise ready to travel with or without reservation.

The “Not Ready to Travel” segment includes those consumers who either need a little or a lot more time to be ready to travel.

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Page 24: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Consumer IndicatorsCalifornia Activity Snapshot

• Past Week and Future Planned Activities (next 3 months)

Page 25: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Activities Done in Past Week

• The chart on the left shows the percent of California residents who participated in various travel-related activities in the past week.

• As more California communities reopen more parts of the economy, we will see greater participation in travel-related activities.

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Page 26: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Activities Planned for Next 3 Months (Trend Over Time)

• Restaurant/Retail and Outdoor Activities that Californians plan to do in the next three months.

Note: Survey question was not asked the weeks of 12/20/20 through 1/3/21

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Page 27: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Activities Planned for Next 3 Months (Trend Over Time)

• Accommodations/Travel and Attractions Activities that Californians plan to do in the next three months.

Note: Survey question was not asked the weeks of 12/20/20 through 1/3/21

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Page 28: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Activities Planned for Next 3 Months (Trend Over Time)

• Meetings and Events Activities that Californians plan to do in the next three months.

Note: Survey question was not asked the weeks of 12/20/20 through 1/3/21

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Page 29: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Lodging & Air Indicators• U.S. and California Occupancy, Average Daily Rate

(ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar)• California Lodging Demand• California Region Metrics• U.S. TSA Passenger Throughput• Future Air and Lodging Bookings

Page 30: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

U.S. & California Weekly Lodging Metrics• The charts include weekly metrics for: Occupancy, Average Daily Rate (ADR), and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR).• Note that hotels closed for at least a calendar month due to the COVID-19 pandemic are marked as “closed” in STR’s census

database for that month. Hotels closed for a partial month are still included in supply and the occupancy calculation.����

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Page 31: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Lodging Metrics(with year-over-year comparison)

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Page 32: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Room Demand (with year-over-year comparison)

• Demand can be used as an alternative metric for occupancy.

• Year-over-year percent change for Gateways and Other California Regions is calculated as an average across the regions.

*Gateway Regions segment includes Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Diego County, and San Francisco Bay Area. Other California Regions segment includes Central Coast, Central Valley, Deserts, Gold Country, High Sierra, Inland Empire, North Coast, and Shasta Cascade regions.

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Page 33: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Lodging Metrics: Gateway Regions

Detailed report available here:https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/research/report/weekly-california-lodging-report-2020

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Page 34: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Lodging Metrics: Other California Regions

Detailed weekly lodging report available here:https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/research/report/weekly-california-lodging-report-2020

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Page 35: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

U.S. Air Passenger Throughput (TSA Checkpoints)• The chart shows weekly passengers screened at U.S. TSA checkpoints and year-over-year comparison.

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Page 36: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Airlift into California• The charts below show monthly domestic and international non-stop seats to California and year-over-year comparison.

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Page 37: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

International Airlift to California by Market• The chart shows international non-stop seats to California by market for the current month and year-over-year comparison.

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Page 38: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Future Bookings(Monthly Reporting)

• Future room night bookings in California for the next

six months are shown on the left with percent

change over the previous year as of the report date.

• Air bookings to California for the next six months are

shown on the left with percent change over the

previous year as of the report date.

Note: TravelClick room booking data is reported weekly. ForwardKeys air booking data is reported on a weekly basis, and does not include bookings from Southwest Airlines.

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Page 39: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Economic Indicators• Weekly Travel Spending• State and Local Taxes Lost• IniRal Unemployment Claims• Unemployment Rate• Leisure & Hospitality Employment Figures

Page 40: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Travel Spending• The chart shows the impact of coronavirus on weekly travel spending in California and the U.S. compared to travel spending for the

same week in the previous year.

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Page 41: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Travel Spending• The chart shows weekly travel spending in California since the start of the pandemic and the comparison to travel spending for the

same week in the previous year.

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Page 42: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Weekly Local and State Taxes Lost

• The first two charts show the impact of coronavirus on weekly tax revenue at the local and state level.

• The third chart shows the cumulative local and state tax revenue lost since March 7th.

Note: the weekly travel spending report from US Travel/Tourism Economics will be discontinued after December, and will transition to a monthly update. We expect final 2020 estimates in the next couple of weeks.

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Page 43: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

U.S. & California Unemployment – Initial Claims• The charts show weekly insured unemployment initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) and percent change from previous week.

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Page 44: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California and U.S. Monthly Unemployment Rate• The chart shows the monthly unemployment rate for California and the U.S..

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Page 45: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Leisure & Hospitality Employment• The charts show California monthly employment figures for Leisure & Hospitality segment compared to Total Non-Farm employment.• California’s Leisure & Hospitality industry has been significantly impacted by COVID-related job losses when compared to the broader

non-farm economy.

California Leisure & Hospitality Employment

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Page 46: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

Lodging IndicatorsAppendix

• HomeShare Metrics (Monthly)

Page 47: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Gateway Regions

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Page 48: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Other California Regions��� ��� ��� �� �� �� ��� ���

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Page 49: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Gateway Regions

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Page 50: COVID-19 Research Dashboard - Visit California...Feb 04, 2021  · TravelClick Tourism Economics §The data enclosed is updated weekly and intended to provide insight on the current

California Monthly HomeShare Metrics: Other California Regions

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