covid-19 · shopping behavior a˜ected by covid-19 73% experienced product shortages at stores...
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Copyright © 2020 Advantage Solutions. All Rights Reserved.
COVID-19
59% of consumers say COVID-19 has impacted their shopping behavior, up from 33% in the prior week
What to expect in categories where shoppers pantry load
YesNo
Sources: Information Resources Inc; The Nielsen Company; Nielsen Spectra; Numerator – 2020
Source: Numerator survey 3/17/20–Shoppers with confirmed purchases of grocery, households, or health & beauty between 3/12 and 3/17.
Demand for health and cleaning products will likely drop after the outbreak
28%The number of shoppers replacing in-store tripswith online shopping
Demand for pantry staples will normalize after the outbreak ends
18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64
26% 36% 38% 41% 46% 45%
74% 64% 62% 59% 54% 55%
65+
41%
59%
Week ending 3/15/20
% of shoppers who said behavior was impacted
% of shoppers who said behavior was impacted by age group
Shopping behavior a�ected by COVID-1973%
Experienced product shortages at stores I’m trying
to buy from
Stocking-upon products I
wouldn’t otherwise stock-up on
Making online purchases whenI would usuallyshop in-store
Buying productsI wouldn’t
otherwise buy
Shopping in storesI wouldn’t
otherwise shop
Others
53%
28% 25% 20%6%
Highest growth categories since COVID-19 hit US% chg vs YAG(healthcare,cleaningand stock-upcategories,US multi-outlet)
TOTAL STOREHand SanitizersHH Cleaner ClothsPersonal ThermometersPowdered MilkGlovesHH CleanerToothbrush HoldersBleachMoist TowelettesSoapCharcoalDry Beans/VegetablesFirst Aid TreatmentRiceToilet Tissue
HIGHEST ACCELERATINGCATEGORIES
1.8%3.2%4.5%
15.8%1.7%
-2.5%-0.3%
-12.4%-4.9%6.8%1.7%
10.8%-0.8%
1.7%3.3%3.8%
PRE PERIOD8/8/19 – 1/19/20
3.5%169.4%72.2%57.6%38.5%20.3%18.7%
4.1%11.2%22.1%16.4%
25.5%13.1%14.4%14.5%14.4%
POST PERIOD1/20/20 – 3/8/20
1.7166.267.741.836.822.819.016.516.115.314.714.713.912.611.2
10.5
DELTA
Disposable DiapersBaby Food
Baby NeedsSanitary Protection
Prepared Food Dry MixesDry Vegetables & Grains
DeodorantDesserts, Gelatins & Syrup
Breakfast FoodCanned or Bottled Juice & Drinks
129126120113112112111111110110
INDEX LEVEL
CA
TEG
ORY
105 110 115 120 125 130
Top complementarycategories to buyersof hand sanitizer
Shoppers seek health-adjacent categories in addition to essentials
Copyright © 2020 Advantage Solutions. All Rights Reserved.Source: Numerator–2020
COVID-19
Observations by channel & key retailer
Shopping Behavior Index by Channel — YTD through March 15, 2020
Source: Numerator–2020
• The volume of households shopping these channels, while still above year ago, is slowing as people fully integrate social distancing
• Shopping is becoming much more targeted, with more shopping focused on destination stores like club, food, mass and dollar stores
Supermarkets
Drug Stores
Walmart
Target
Delivery and pick-up options gain tractionas shoppers want to limit human interaction
Channel trips are up significantly as shoppers search for products and pharmacists support non-COVID-19 patients redirected away from other healthcare facilities
Supply chain disruptions for medical supplies should be minimal given that 2/3 of sourcingis from within the US. However, Just-In-Time inventory models could threaten supplies in categories that are sourced from China
Special time is being dedicated to senior shoppers and those with health concerns.All Cafes, Pizza Huts, Snack Bars, Beverage Bars, Starbucks, seating areas and condiment stations in stores are closed indefinitely
Increased out of stocks and store tra�c has led to limits on the number of goods each shopper is allowed to purchase. May decrease hours of operation and control customer flow to minimize exposure to the virus
Rural and rest stop locations will see a decline in sales, especially as non-essential travel is banned. Chains with delivery options may have an advantage as people look to minimize human interaction
Core shoppers have a limited ability to stock up, as they are not in a position for large basket trips. These shoppers will refocus their tight budgets on long lasting food, healthcare and other essential categories
Stores in rural areas and small towns may see an uptick in trips as this is often the only modern trade format to top-up onbasic consumables
Aldi and Lidl may be open to suppliersand brands, as they may be challenged to maintain adequate supply of their private label o�erings in key categories
Closures and Shoppers causing verysoft sales but those with a strong online presence – e.g. Sephora's are better placed to o�set brick and mortar challenges
Club
Convenience
Discounters
Apparel/Beauty/Retailers/Malls
Index = 105 to 109 110–119 120–150
TOTAL BEAUTY BODEGA CLUB DOLLAR DRUG FOODGAS &
C-STORE HEALTH LIQUOR MASS MILITARY PET SPECIALTY
$ Sales vsYear Ago
Trips vsYear Ago
$/Trips vsYear Ago
HHs vsYear Ago
Buy Ratesvs Year Ago
% of HH’sreporting 86%
114
104
111
99
115
76%
78
98
98
81
96
90%
119
108
118
93
127
92%
120
107
103
109
111
98%
144
110
118
112
129
93%
115
100
109
106
109
91%
135
107
120
105
128
76%
81
92
96
93
87
78%
118
101
96
122
97
86%
112
102
111
99
113
89%
125
104
115
104
120
117%
105
99
106
100
105
90%
121
109
114
97
124
79%
114
102
123
91
125
COVID-19
FROM THE FRONT LINESServing not only our clients and customers, but our communities
2020034Copyright © 2020 Advantage Solutions. All Rights Reserved.
Making sure products are in stock for our community
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BEFORE AFTER
“I am very proud to be able to help out my store and the customers” - Stuart Kinberg
Keeping areas sanitized for everyone, ensuring both associates and customers are safe
Audrey La�erty working her 5th dayin a row sanitizing and keeping thecustomers safe at Walmart
“I’m cleaning and sanitizing Walmartto keep customers and associates safe”- Mary Kitchens