covid-19 windsor and essex county: march 20, 2020 to may 15, … · 2020. 5. 15. · summary: covid...
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COVID-19 Windsor and Essex County: March 20, 2020 to May 15, 2020
Purpose
• Providing an epidemiologic summary of COVID-19 activity in Windsor and Essex County (WEC) to date
Source
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit, Infectious Disease Prevention (IDP) database, extracted by Windsor-Essex County Health Unit [2020/05/14].
• Ontario Ministry of Health, integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS) database, extracted by Windsor-Essex County Health Unit [2020/05/14].
• Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (Public Health Ontario). Epidemiologic Summary: COVID-19 in Ontario – January 15, 2020 to May 13, 2020). Toronto, ON: Queen’s Printer for Ontario; 2020.
Highlights
• At the time of reporting, there are 751 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in WEC between March 20th and May 14th.
• Overall, cases of COVID-19 in WEC continue to decrease. • The incident rate of COVID-19 in WEC is higher compared to Chatham-Kent, Lambton County
and the overall rate in Ontario. • Between May 5th and May 11th, approximately 3% of the tests on average returned as positive
for COVID-19 when tested for COVID-19. • Facility wide testing in 38 long-term care and retirement homes has indicated that 0.9% of
residents and 0.4% of staff were asymptomatic and positive for COVID-19. • The age of the cases range from 8 to 101 years with females accounting for approximately 57%
of all cases compared to approximately 42% in males. One percent of cases had an unknown sex o Among females, 24% of all female cases were among those 80 years or older o Among males, 19% of all male cases were among those between 20 to 29 years.
• Approximately 63% of the cases reside in the City of Windsor. • Currently, the majority of cases are due to close contacts with individuals that were positive for
COVID-19. • 28% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases are healthcare workers and of these 210 healthcare
workers, 26% of HCW reported travelled to Michigan prior to becoming ill. • Of the COVID-19 cases reporting a risk factor, 22% had a cardiovascular condition, 11% had
diabetes and 10% had asthma. • 37% of cases reported having either a chronic or underlying condition or being
immunocompromised. • Coughing 85% was the most commonly reported symptom among cases with COVID-19
reporting any symptoms followed by fatigue (63%), malaise (62%) and fever (61%). • Approximately 27% of cases are still in self-isolation while 52% of cases have resolved.
• Approximately 73% of the deaths have occurred in individuals 80 years or older. o 63% of the deaths were in females and 37% in males.
• The overall case fatality rate in WEC is 8.3%. When stratified by long-term care and retirement homes, the case fatality rate within long-term care and retirement homes is 16.4%.
• The trajectory of the doubling rate for COVID-19, since the first reported case, in Windsor is more than five days.
• The day-over-day doubling time has been increasing in Windsor-Essex, Ontario and Canada with the Windsor-Essex doubling time generally higher compared to the province and country since the middle of April.
• The mean R0 value is 0.86 indicating a decrease in community spread of COVID-19
May 15, 2020
COVID-19 Epidemiological SummaryContent covered:• Hospital Admissions based on syndromes• Epidemic curves
• By 1) Overall; 2) 3-day moving average; 3) Community vs. LTCH/RH• Regional & provincial rates• Percent positivity of COVID-19 tests• Symptomatic vs. Asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in LTCH/RH• Age & sex distribution• Distribution by municipality• Exposure history• Travel History• Healthcare worker status• Top medical risk factors• Symptoms• Hospitalizations• Outcomes• Breakdown by deaths• Doubling time• Mean R0
Hospital Admissions Based on Syndromes (asthma, influenza-like-illness, pneumonia, sepsis or suspect COVID)
2020-05-15
September 1st May 10th
Influenza peak in 2018/19 & 2019/20
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
% o
f all
adm
issi
ons
Surveillance week
2018/19 2019/2020
Epidemic Curve by Symptom Onset Date
2020-05-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Symptom Onset Date
**illness that began during this time may not yet be reported**
Epidemic Curve by 3-Day Moving Average
2020-05-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Symptom onset date
**illness that began during this time may not yet be reported**
Epidemic Curve by Community vs. LTCH/RH by Symptom Onset Date
2020-05-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Community LTCH/RH
**illness that began during this time may not yet be reported**
**Alternative** Epidemic Curve by Community vs. LTCH/RH by Symptom Onset Date
2020-05-15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Date
Community LTCH/RH
**illness that began during this time may not yet be reported**
Regional & Provincial Rates
2020-05-15
231
194 191175 172 168 163 161 154
12294 91 85 83
145
0
50
100
150
200
250
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Geography
Percent Positivity of People Tested for COVID-19
2020-05-15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
% o
f tes
ts p
ositi
ve fo
r CO
VID-
19
Tota
l # o
f tes
ts
Date
Total Tests % of tests positive
Symptomatic Vs. Asymptomatic Positives
2020-05-15
1.7%
0.9%
2.1%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Symptomatic Positive Asymptomatic Positive
% o
f tes
ts
Test Results*
Residents Staff
Age & Sex Distribution
2020-05-15
0 to 19years
20 to29
years
30 to39
years
40 to49
years
50 to59
years
60 to69
years
70 to79
years
80+years
Males 2% 19% 17% 14% 14% 11% 8% 15%Females 1% 16% 12% 14% 16% 11% 7% 24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% o
f kno
wn
conf
irmed
cas
es
Distribution of COVID-19 Cases by Municipality
2020-05-15
Amherstburg3%
Essex3% Kingsville
12%
LaSalle3%
Lakeshore4%
Leamington9%
Tecumseh3%
Windsor63%
Exposure History by Reported Date
2020-05-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Travel Close Contact Community Transmission
COVID-19 Cases by Healthcare Worker
2020-05-15
55
15547
464
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Healthcare worker Visited a healthcare facility
Not applicable Unknown
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Healthcare worker status
Travelled to Michigan
All other HCWs
Top Medical Risk Factors
2020-05-15
22%
11% 10%8% 7% 7% 6% 5%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% o
f CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Top Medical Risk Factor
Underlying Health Conditions
2020-05-15
Chronic/ Underlying/
Immunocompromised37%
None63%
Most Common Symptoms
2020-05-15
85%
63% 62% 61%54%
44% 41% 40% 37% 35% 33%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
% o
f con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Symptom
Hospitalizations
2020-05-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Date
Hospitalizations ICU Field Hospital
Outcomes
2020-05-15
Resolved51.5%
Deceased8.3%
Self-isolating26.6%
Hospitalized3.1%
ICU0.4%
Unknown10.1%
Age & Sex Breakdown of COVID-19 Deaths
2020-05-15
0% 0% 0% 2% 3%8%
15%
73%
37%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 to 19years
20 to29
years
30 to39
years
40 to49
years
50 to59
years
60 to69
years
70 to79
years
80+years
Male Female
% o
f con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
dea
ths
Age Group & Sex
Case Fatality Rate
2020-05-15
3.2%
16.4%
8.3% 8.4%
31.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Community LTCH/RH Overall WEC Ontario OntarioLTCH/RH
Case
fata
lity
(%)
Setting
Doubling Time (Cumulative Comparison)
2020-05-15
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1000000000
Mar/20 Mar/28 Apr/05 Apr/13 Apr/21 Apr/29 May/07 May/15
Tota
l con
firm
ed c
ases
of C
OVI
D-19
Days Since First Case Reported
Doubling Time (Day over Day Comparison)
2020-05-15
1
10
100
28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May
Doub
ling
Tim
e (lo
g10)
Reported Date
ONT Doubling Time WECHU Doubling Time Canada Doubling Time
Mean R0
2020-05-15
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mea
n R0
Date of Symptom Onset
Summary• Case counts in Windsor-Essex continues to
decline even with increased testing• 2% of tests were positive for COVID-19 in the
past 7 days• Case-fatality rates are higher in long-term care
and retirement settings compared to the community
• Doubling time of cases is generally similar to the province and the country
• R0 < 1 signaling a decline in community spread
2020-05-15