COVID EPI UPDATE

5 August 2021

7-day moving average number of new cases by province and date of reporting, 12 April 2020 to date, South Africa

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

18-Apr

18-May

18-Jun

18-Jul

18-Aug

18-Sep

18-Oct

18-Nov

18-Dec

18-Jan

18-Feb

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18-Apr

18-May

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18-Jul

7-d

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Date reported (2020/2021)

Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Limpopo

Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Western Cape Unknown

Provincial updates

4

Eastern Cape: Progress & Challenges

• The increase in cases in EC are being driven by Nelson Mandela Bay Metro and Sarah Baartman

• Hospital admissions in the province are currently in the moderate zone indicating slightly increased case fatality rates for

hospitalized patients (zones as defined by the MAC)

0

100

200

300

400

500

11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30

2020 2021

Alfred Nzo AmatholeBuffalo City Metro Chris HaniJoe Gqabi Nelson Mandela Bay MetroO R Tambo Sarah BaartmanEastern Cape Province

5

Free State: Progress & Challenges

• All districts in the FS are contributing to the high case loads observed in the province

• Hospital admissions in the province are currently in the high zone indicating increased case fatality rates for hospitalized patients

(zones as defined by the MAC) – admissions have remained in this zone since March, indicating continued strain on HCWs in the

province

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

2020 2021

Fezile Dabi Lejweleputswa

Mangaung Metro Thabo Mofutsanyane

Xhariep Free State Province

6

KwaZulu-Natal: Progress & Challenges

• Increase in new cases, nearing the pre-unrest levels. Increase in eThekwini and Zululand

• Hospital admissions in the province are currently in the moderate zone

• There are several clusters across the province contributing to the upsurge in number of cases.

• Compliance to COVID-19 regulations is a challenge as there are few protests especially in eThekwini Metro Municipality.

• Non-compliance of COVID-19 regulations during funeral services.

0

100

200

300

400

500

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29

2020 2021

Amajuba Harry GwalaKing Cetshwayo UguZululand eThekwiniiLembe uMgungundlovuuMkhanyakude uMzinyathiuThukela KwaZulu-Natal Province

7

Northern Cape: Progress & Challenges

• Majority of the districts are showing increases in cases, the highest number of cases - ZF Mgcawu, Francis Baard and Pixley Ka Seme

• Hospital admissions in the province are currently in the very high zone

• Funerals that do not adhere to the regulations

• Social events that do not adhere to the regulations

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

12 15 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29

2020 2021

Frances Baard John Taolo Gaetsewe

Namakwa Pixley ka Seme

ZF Mgcawu Northern Cape Province

8

Western Cape: Progress & Challenges

• Majority of the districts are showing increases in cases, highest - Cape Town Metro.

• Hospital admissions in the province are currently in the very high zone indicating high case fatality rates

• Household, workplace and congregate residential cluster outbreaks contributing to increases

• The recent taxi violence and resultant decrease in mobility

• It is therefore difficult to say whether the province has reached the peak of the third wave

0

50

100

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11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30

2020 2021

Cape Winelands Central KarooCity of Cape Town Metro Garden RouteOverberg West CoastWestern Cape Province

Week

number

Week

beginning

Percentage

testing positive

(%)

14 04-Apr-21 4.0

15 11-Apr-21 4.8

16 18-Apr-21 5.1

17 25-Apr-21 5.8

18 02-May-21 6.9

19 09-May-21 8.3

20 16-May-21 9.8

21 23-May-21 11.4

22 30-May-21 13.4

23 06-Jun-21 17.7

24 13-Jun-21 23.8

25 20-Jun-21 27.4

26 27-Jun-21 29.9

27 04-Jul-21 32.1

28 11-Jul-21 31.8

29 18-Jul-21 28.6

30 25-Jul-21 25.9

Testing – PCR and antigen

Number of new daily tests for SARS-CoV-2 and proportion positive by date of reporting and health

sector, and 7-day moving average proportion positive, 6 April 2020 to date, South Africa

The percentage testing positive in week 30 of 2021

was 25.9%, which was 2.7% lower than the

previous week (28.6%)

Sector Total tested

PRIVATE 8 305 131 56%

PUBLIC 6 621 451 44%

Total 14 926 582

Weekly percentage testing positiveP

erc

en

tag

e p

osi

tive

te

sts

• Highest in Mpumalanga (34.5%), Limpopo (33.9%), Western Cape (32.5%), and Northern Cape (30.5%)

provinces.

• Decreased in the North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. The percentage testing positive remained

unchanged in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.

Red text indicates median at

the beginning and end of the

most recent forecast period

Daily new

cases

forecast

Weekly

hospital

admissions

forecast

Red band indicates very high

admissions load

Orange band indicates high

admissions load

Yellow band indicates medium

admissions load

Previous 14 days and current 14 days average COVID-19 admissions and deaths

and percentage changes, South Africa, 26 June-24 July 2021

Province Hospital admissions Percentage

change in

admissions

Hospital deaths Percentage

change in

deathsPrevious 14 days

admissions

average

Current 14

days

admissions

average

Previous 14

days deaths

average

Current 14 days

deaths average

Eastern Cape 89.21 81.86 -8.25 22.21 24.71 11.25

Free State 74.64 59.50 -20.29 18.21 15.86 -12.94

Gauteng 863.64 466.00 -46.04 229.86 163.07 -29.06

KwaZulu-Natal 173.93 165.43 -4.89 34.64 40.93 18.14

Limpopo 140.57 91.14 -35.16 38.43 33.57 -12.64

Mpumalanga 99.86 72.43 -27.47 24.36 22.57 -7.33

North West 145.57 109.36 -24.88 29.57 26.86 -9.18

Northern Cape 30.07 25.71 -14.49 6.93 8.36 20.62

Western Cape 383.71 434.14 13.14 69.57 94.50 35.83