covid19 international market update · 2020-06-23 · india russia peru chile mexico south africa...

Covid 19 International Market Update

June 23, 2020

Chris ThompsonPresident & CEO

Carroll RheemVP, Research & Analytics

Pace of Coronavirus (Covid-19) Contagion

New Confirmed Cases (rolling average over 7 days)

Source: Johns Hopkins

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

3/2/

2020

3/5/

2020

3/8/

2020

3/11

/202

0

3/14

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0

3/17

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0

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0

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3/26

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3/29

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4/1/

2020

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2020

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0

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2020

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0

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0

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0

Oceania Africa Middle East Europe Asia North America South/Central/Caribbean

Daily New Confirmed Cases (rolling average over 3 days)


05000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

3/1/

2020

3/4/

2020

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05/

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12/2

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/202

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/202

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/202

06/

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020

US Europe Brazil



0

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180003/

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/202

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/202

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/202

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/202

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/202

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2/20

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8/20

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11/2

020

6/14

/202

06/

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020

6/20

/202

0

India Russia Peru Chile Mexico South Africa Pakistan Bangladesh Saudi Arabia

Daily New Confirmed Cases - Top 10 States(rolling average over 3 days)


0

1000

2000

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5000

6000

4/1/

2020

4/3/

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4/5/

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/202

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13/2

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06/

2/20

206/

4/20

206/

6/20

206/

8/20

206/

10/2

020

6/12

/202

06/

14/2

020

6/16

/202

06/

18/2

020

6/20

/202

06/

22/2

020

California Texas Florida Arizona MississippiGeorgia North Carolina South Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania

Active Cases (Total Confirmed – Recovered – Fatalities)


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

18000003/

1/20

20

3/4/

2020

3/7/

2020

3/10

/202

0

3/13

/202

0

3/16

/202

0

3/19

/202

0

3/22

/202

0

3/25

/202

0

3/28

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0

3/31

/202

0

4/3/

2020

4/6/

2020

4/9/

2020

4/12

/202

0

4/15

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0

4/18

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0

4/21

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4/24

/202

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4/27

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0

4/30

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0

5/3/

2020

5/6/

2020

5/9/

2020

5/12

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0

5/15

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0

5/18

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0

5/21

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5/30

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0

6/2/

2020

6/5/

2020

6/8/

2020

6/11

/202

0

6/14

/202

0

6/17

/202

0

6/20

/202

0

US Europe

Active Cases (Total Confirmed – Recovered – Fatalities)


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

5000003/

1/20

20

3/4/

2020

3/7/

2020

3/10

/202

0

3/13

/202

0

3/16

/202

0

3/19

/202

0

3/22

/202

0

3/25

/202

0

3/28

/202

0

3/31

/202

0

4/3/

2020

4/6/

2020

4/9/

2020

4/12

/202

0

4/15

/202

0

4/18

/202

0

4/21

/202

0

4/24

/202

0

4/27

/202

0

4/30

/202

0

5/3/

2020

5/6/

2020

5/9/

2020

5/12

/202

0

5/15

/202

0

5/18

/202

0

5/21

/202

0

5/24

/202

0

5/27

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0

5/30

/202

0

6/2/

2020

6/5/

2020

6/8/

2020

6/11

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0

6/14

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0

6/17

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0

6/20

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0

Brazil United Kingdom Russia India Pakistan Peru France Spain Bangladesh



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1-Mar

4-Mar

7-Mar

10-Mar

13-Mar

16-Mar

19-Mar

22-Mar

25-Mar

28-Mar

31-Mar

3-Apr

6-Apr

9-Apr

12-Apr

15-Apr

18-Apr

21-Apr

24-Apr

27-Apr

30-Apr

3-May

6-May

9-May

12-May

15-May

18-May

21-May

24-May

27-May

30-May

2-Jun

5-Jun

8-Jun11-Ju

n14-Ju

n17-Ju

n20-Ju

n

Brazil India Mexico United Kingdom Germany France

Canada Japan China Korea, South Australia

Current Conditions Relative to Initial Peak

Accelerating

• Brazil• India• Mexico

Flattened Decelerated

• China• South Korea• Japan• France• Germany• Australia• UK• Canada

Restriction Easing Prerequisites Recommended By Health Experts

• Hospitals must be able to accommodate all patients without resorting to crisis level standards of care

Hospital capacity normalization

• At least all those with symptoms must be able to get tested

Testing

• Ability to trace confirmed cases and contacts

Monitoring

• At least 14 days of sustained reduction in cases

Sustained Case Reduction

Source: New York Times

Current Tactics for Combatting Travel-Related Spread

• Temperature screening

Non-invasive health screening

• 2 weeks

Mandatory quarantine

• Location (mobile) tracking/contact tracing

Technology-driven tracking

• Pre-entry swab/blood testing

Testing

Effectiveness Invasiveness

Economic Impact

International markets will not fully recover for five years

| Oxford Economics

International visits to the US are expected to drop by 50 million and spending is forecast to fall 75%.

Border closures, ongoing reluctance to travel internationally, and the residual effects of the global economic recession will weigh heavily on international markets over the next several years.

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2019 2020 2021 2022 20230

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Visits Spending (right)

Source: Oxford Economics

US international visits and spendingmillion visits (left), $ billions (right)

International visitor spending impacts

| Oxford Economics

Losses from international markets will tally $354 billion through 2023, representing 36% of the decline in travel spending.

• By the end of 2023, international visits to the US will remain 7% below 2019 levels. The spending of international visitors in the US is expected to still be 17% below 2019 levels in 2023, despite strong growth beginning in 2021.

• Domestic travel spending will fully recover to 2019 levels in 2024. However, losses will accrue to $620 billion through 2023.

• International markets will represent more than one-third of all losses through the forecast horizon.

US International Inbound Travel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

International visits (thousands) 79,256 28,934 47,269 63,709 73,785 % change -1% -63% 63% 35% 16% % change from 2019 -63% -40% -20% -7%

International visitor spending* ($ billions) $195 $49 $85 $130 $162 % change -1% -75% 75% 52% 25% % change from 2019 -75% -56% -34% -17%

Losses ($ billions, compared to 2019) 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total

International visitor spending* ($ billions) -$146 -$110 -$65 -$33 -$354 Share of total 29% 42% 46% 45% 36%

Domestic visitor spending -$354 -$149 -$77 -$40 -$620 Share of total 71% 58% 54% 55% 64%

Total -$500 -$259 -$142 -$73 -$974

Monthly demand: US outlookDemandRelative to 2019

-68%-66%

-64%

-39%

-17%

-12%

-5%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2020 2021 2022

Demand recovers its prior peak by the end of 2023 (14 quarters after trough)

Demand recovers 88% of losses by the end of 2021

Consumer Impact

Traveler Sentiment

Anxiety remains elevated

Likelihood to Travel Internationally in the Next 12 months(% Change over 2019 average)

Base: All respondentsSource: Engine/ORC Custom Study

6%

-9%

-16%

-6% -2

%

2%

-31%

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5%

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-38% -3

7%

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-61%

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7%

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7% -34%

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-40% -3

7%

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-24%

-49%

-21%

-53%

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Austra l ia Braz i l Canada China France Germany India Japan Mexico Korea UK

6-Mar-20

13-Mar-20

20-Mar-20

9-Apr-20

7-May-20

11-Jun-20

Gender Differences

Likelihood to Travel Internationally in the Next 12 months: By Gender(% Change over 2019 average)

-12%

-26%

-33%

-40%

-27% -26%

-20%

-50%

-16%

-45%

-27%

-21%

-28%

-47%

-35% -3

3%

-42%

-29%

-52%

-27%

-61%

-33%


Men

Women


Age Factors

-2%

-20%

-32% -31%

-12%

-21%

-25%

-30%

-22%

-49%

-11%

-7%

-17%

-37%

-30%

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-15%

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-18%

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0%

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-48%

-25%

-28%

-20%

-61%

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-59%

-28%

-33%

-56%

-48%

-43%

-50%

-50%

-44%

-67%

-13%

-45%

-49%


18-34

35-44

45-54

55+

Likelihood to Travel Internationally in the Next 12 months: By Age(% Change over 2019 average)


Likelihood to Travel Internationally in the Next 12 months: By Children in Household (% Change over 2019 average)


-21%

-43% -4

0%

-46%

-34%

-39%

-35%

-56%

-27%

-53%

-34%

-6%

-17%

-39%

-29%

-22% -2

0% -18%

-35%

-18%

-50%

-21%

Austra l ia Braz i l Canada China France Germany India Japan Mexico South Korea

UK

No Children

Children

Reasons for Not Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months(June 11, 2020)

*Concerned about contracting/spreading COVID-19 replaced “Concerned about the Spread of COVID-19”Base: Respondents who are unsure/unlikely to take an international trip in the next 12 monthsSource: Engine/ORC Custom Study

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Japan Mexico Korea U.K.

COVID-19-related restrictions on traveling Concerned about contracting/spreading COVID-19

Activities/experiences not be available due to COVID-19 restrictions Cannot afford it this year

Uncertain about my financial future No desire

Required to stay close to home No time

-2

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13

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42

Reasons for Not Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months: By Age(June 11, 2020)

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Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany

18-34 35-44 45-54 55+


Reasons for Not Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months: By Age(June 11, 2020)


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India Japan Mexico South Korea UK18-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Vacation Planning

Travel Changes due to COVID-19: June 11(PPS Difference Over May 7)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Australia Brazil Canada China France GermanyNo impact on my travel plans No changes yet, but I may adjust in the futureTravel as planned with precautions Stay in a holiday home rental rather than a hotelDrive rather than travel by plane or train Change destination(s)Postpone my trip Cancel my trip

5

2 2

-7

-2 -1

-6 2 -6

-1-2 1

-26

2 -2-1

-1

-2 -1

3

4

10

4

-2

6

-55 -1

-6

-3

-13-1

9

2 -1-7

*New. Driving was excluded in Australia, China, India, Japan and KoreaBase: Respondents who are likely to take an international trip in the next 12 monthsSource: Engine/ORC Custom Study

9

Travel Changes due to COVID-19: June 11(PPS Difference Over May 7)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

India Japan Mexico Korea U.K.No impact on my travel plans No changes yet, but I may adjust in the futureTravel as planned with precautions Stay in a holiday home rental rather than a hotelDrive rather than travel by plane or train Change destination(s)Postpone my trip Cancel my trip

2

2

-4

-4

10

11

2 2

-8

-4

3 1

-5

2 3

-79

3-1 -3

-1


-1

13

-7

-9

1 1

27

1

-4 -4

Travel Changes due to COVID-19: By Age(June 11)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany18-34 35-44 45-54 55+


Travel Changes due to COVID-19: By Age(June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

India Japan Mexico South Korea UK

18-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Travel Changes due to COVID-19: By Children in Household(June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

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with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a…

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip


No Children Children

Travel Changes due to COVID-19: By Children in Household(June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a ho

tel

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a ho

tel

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a ho

tel

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a ho

tel

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip

No

impa

ct o

n m

y tr

avel

pla

ns

No

chan

ges y

et, b

ut I

may

adj

ust i

n th

e fu

ture

Trav

el a

s pla

nned

with

pre

caut

ions

Stay

in a

hol

iday

hom

e re

ntal

rat

her t

han

a ho

tel

Driv

e ra

ther

than

trav

el b

y pl

ane

or tr

ain

Chan

ge d

estin

atio

n(s)

Post

pone

my

trip

Canc

el m

y tr

ip



Kübler-Ross Emotional Response to Change

Time

Mor

ale

And

Com

pete

nce

ShockSurprise

or shock at the event

DenialDisbelief: Looking for evidence that it isn’t

true

FrustrationRecognition that

things are different:feeling like a victim

Anger/DepressionLow mood: lacking in

energy and/or focusing on blame

ExperimentInitial engagement with new situation;

considering new ways of doing things

DecisionComing to terms;

feeling more in control and more

positive

IntegrationChanges understood

and accepted:a renewed sense of

normal

Budget for Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months(June 11)

Base: Respondents who are likely to take an international trip in the next 12 monthsSource: Engine/ORC Custom Study

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Spend less Spend the same Spend more

Budget for Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months: By Children in Household (June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Japan Mexico South Korea UK


Budget for Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months: By Age (June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore


18-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Budget for Traveling Internationally in the Next 12 Months: By Age (June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore

Spen

d le

ss

Spen

d th

e sa

me

Spen

d m

ore


18-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Personal Considerations When Deciding International Destination(June 11)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Resting and relaxation Increasing my knowledge/understanding of other cultures Seeing unique attractions Connecting with nature Satisfying a sense of adventure Staying within my comfort zone Reconnecting with friends and family who live far away Pursuing personal hobbies/passions (sports, music, cooking) Keeping fit/engaging in physically active recreation Engaging my children in activities that are specialiszed for them Indulging in upscale/luxury experiences

Personal Considerations* When Deciding International Destination: Very Important and Extremely Important(PPS Difference Over 2019 Market Intelligence Study)

-8 -8 -6

-11

11

3

-13 -11

-2

-9

-4

-11

-10

-11

-12

-6

-17

-19

-8

2

-7

-13

-13

-7

-13 -8

-1

-5

-15

-16 -1

1

-5

-11

-6

-14

-4 -1

1

-8

-16 -1

3

0

10

-16

-4 -6 -5 -8

2 1

-12

-11

5

-1

-13

3

-2

6

-5 -2

12

-6 -7

7

-12

-2

5

-7

-1

-6

7

0

-7

-3 -4

7

-6-6

-11

-2 -2

-11

5

-24 -1

7

-9

7

-14

-4 -1 -2

-7

7

2

-17

-20

-4

4

-9

AUSTRALIA BRAZIL CANADA CHINA FRANCE GERMANY INDIA JAPAN MEXICO KOREA UK

Resting and relaxation Seeing the world’s most unique attractionsIncreasing my knowledge/understanding of other cultures Satisfying a sense of adventureConnecting with nature Staying within my comfort zoneKeeping fit/engaging in physically active recreation (hiking, swimming) Indulging in upscale/luxury experiencesPursuing personal hobbies/passions (sport, music, cooking)

*Market Intelligence Study excludes VFRBase: Respondents who are likely to take an international trip in the next 12 monthsSource: Engine/ORC Custom Study

Traveler Priority: Minimize Risk

• Minimizing shared facility use/ Visiting friends and relatives• Crowd avoidance

Health/Hygiene

• Cancellation/change policy, insurance• Car versus air travel• Familiar/tried & true experiences

Flexibility/Control

• Not trying to check all the boxes; focusing on what’s most important

Keeping it simple

• Looking for deals/low prices – however, many would pay a premium for privacy

Financial

Likelihood to Travel to the USA in the Next 12 months(PPS difference over 2019 average)


-5-4

-8

-18

-2 -2

-6

3

-2

-6

-3

Australia Brazil Canada China Germany France India Japan Korea Mexico U.K.

Asia-Pacific: Likelihood to Travel Long-Haul in the Next 12 months(PPS difference over 2019 average)


-5

-18

-6

3

-2

-4

-1

-6

0 0

-1 -1

-7

-1

-3

0

-5

-7

1

-1

-3

-6

-6

1

-2

0

-4

-8

1 1

0

-3

-1

1

-1-1 -2

-3

-1 -1

0

-3

-6

0 1

-1

0

0

0

-1

-8

-6

0

-3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Austra l ia China India Japan Korea

USA

UK

Italy

France

Canada

Germany

Greece

Spain

UAE

Portugal

Australia

Europe: Likelihood to Travel Long-Haul in the Next 12 months(PPS difference over 2019 average)


-2

-2

-3

0

-3

0

0 0

-2-2

-1

0

0

-1

1

0

-2

-1

0

0

1

0

1

-1

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Germany France U.K.

USA

Canada

Australia

Thailand

Morocco

Japan

Egypt

New Zealand

Americas: Likelihood to Travel International in the Next 12 months(PPS difference over 2019 average)


-1

0

2

-1

-2

2

-3

-4

1

-4

-2

2

-4

-3

2

-5

-1

0

-2

0

4

0

-3

0

-4

-8

-6

-3

0

4

-3 -3

0

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Braz i l Canada Mexico

Australia

Cuba

France

Italy

Japan

Portugal

Spain

UK

USA

Canada

Mexico

Inbound Flight Schedules

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,000

1,200,0001,400,0001,600,000

1,800,0002,000,000

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

c

Canada Mexico UK

2019

Source: SABRE

Inbound Flight Schedules

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSe

pN

ov

GERMANY JAPAN CHINA FRANCE SOUTH KOREA BRAZIL AUSTRALIA INDIA

2019 2020 YOY

Source: SABRE

International Travel Prerequisites

• Lifting of restrictions and for most travelers, mandatory 2 week quarantine policies• Low level of cases for both origin and destination

POLICY- Freedom of Movement

• Return of flight capacity• Reopening and capacity of key attractions/activities

PRODUCT - Reconfiguration and Availability

• Conditions are understood and risks/costs are at an acceptable level• May require willingness to be tested pre-entry and/or tracked in destination• Comfort with new processes and procedures that ensure distancing and hygiene

POSITIVITY - Consumer Confidence

VisitTheUSA.com

VisitTheUSA

Consumer

Brand USA

TheBrandUSA.com@BrandUSA

BrandUSA

BrandUSATV

Travel industry

covid19 international market update · 2020-06-23 · india russia peru chile mexico south africa...

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