Practical Adaptation to Climate Change on NSW Coasts

Seminar EA maritime Panel - PIANC

24 August 2009

Ron Cox Sir John Holland Civil Engineer of the Year 2008

School of Civil & Environmental EngineeringUniversity of NSW

Convenor Climate Change

Adaptation Research Network

Settlements and Infrastructure

• Department of Climate Change funding of $50 million over 5 years 2008-2012• To underpin the development of adaptation strategie s based upon sound scientific knowledge• To foster research and synthesize knowledge about climate change adaptation• To stimulate research investment with contributions from research funding bodies, State governments, th e private sector and other bodies and programs.

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RESEARCH FACILITY

• $10 million to establish and manage the new Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (hosted by Griffith University);

• $30 million for specific research projects to support implementation of the National Adaptation Research Plans

• $10 million to support the activities of 8 Adaptation Research Networks

NETWORK THEMES

• Terrestrial biodiversity:• Primary industries:• Water resources and freshwater biodiversity:• Marine biodiversity and resources:• Human health:• Settlements and infrastructure:• Disaster management and emergency

services:• Social, economic and institutional

dimensions:

Settlements and infrastructure:covering climate change impacts and

adaptation issues/options across

• coastal settlements • urban planning and management• the built environment –design and construction• public and private infrastructure including

energy, water security, flooding, transport, communications

• the social, economic and institutional implications of these impacts and implications for planning, design, and management of settlements and infrastructure

Settlements and infrastructure - UNSW

• 5 year reduced to 4 year – Jan 2009 to Dec 2012• UNSW central host – Convenor Ron Cox • 4 nodes located at Griffith Uni, Adelaide/SA Unis a nd

UNSW• Strong involvement of professional associations and

government • UNSW cash $160,000 pa• DCC/NCCARF cash $450,000 pa• Network wide in kind $1,500,000 pa

Settlements and infrastructure - UNSW

• Node 1 Coastal settlements – Griffith University node w ill be convened by Prof Rodger Tomlinson, Director Griffith C entre for Coastal Management

• Node 2 Urban management, transport and inclusion - A delaide node will be jointly led by Prof Michael Taylor, Direc tor Institute for Sustainable Systems and Technologies (ISST) at U niversity of SA and Prof Graeme Hugo, Director National Centre fo r Social Applications of Geographic Information Systems (GISCA) at University of Adelaide

• Node 3 Built environment innovation and institutiona l reform -UNSW node under Prof Bill Randolph, Director City Future s Research Centre, Faculty of Built Environment

• Node 4 Infrastructure - UNSW node will be jointly conv ened by Prof Richard Stuetz and Dr Bill Peirson, co-Directors of the UNSW Water Research Centre

Settlements and infrastructure - UNSWNETWORK STATUS

• Contracts finalised – network operational• Host location in Civil Building at UNSW• Membership > 200 • Convenor has lead role in drafting NARP • Forum at WSUD conference, Perth, 7 May 2009• Young researchers workshop 14-15 May 2009• Research discussion papers commenced related to coasta l

settlements policy, water security, financial analy sis, sustainable alternative energy

• Initial 6 month workplan complete 30 June 2009• Management committee (node leaders) meets quarterly • Industry advisory committee – to meet October 2009• Workplan for 2009/2010 includes various workshops/forums

Threats: example NSW • sea level rise – 0.4 m (2050) - 0.9m (2100)

(IPCC 2007, CSRIO 2007)• extreme weather events, more severe storms• intensified beach erosion and flooding• Population growth 5.4 M – 7.2 M

Structural Dwellings – 1.67M to 2.44M (Sydney)2.76M to 3.89M (NSW)

• sea change (Gurran 2006)• rising temperature and frequent heatwaves

Climate change ‘emphasis is spreading rapidly from the scientific to the policy realm (although the science is still crucially urgent) and in the policy realm from solely mitigation toward a focus on adaptation’ –Dovers 2009

Concerns, issues, information & research needs

Gold Coast – settlement and infrastructure highly vu lnerable to climate change

Preparation of National Adaptation Research Plan NARP

• Issues paper covering Urban planning & management, Built environment, Vulnerable coastal communities and Infrastructure – early April

• 2 day workshops for stakeholders in Cairns, Adelaide and Sydney – April

• Consultation draft for comment to DCC early July • 4 to 6 week public comment period• Final draft to DCC and Minister

NARP SI writing team• Professor Bruce Thom (University of Sydney)• Ms. Jennifer Cane (DSE, Victoria)• Professor Ron Cox (UNSW)• Ms Catherine Farrell (DCC)• Professor Peter Hayes (RMIT)• Dr. Robert Kay (Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd)• Mr Allen Kearns (CSIRO)• Associate Professor Darryl Low Choy (Griffith University)• Professor John McAneney (Macquarie University)• Professor Jan McDonald (Griffith University)• Michael Nolan (Maunsell AECOM)• Barbara Norman (RMIT)• Professor Jonathan Nott (JCU)• Professor Tim Smith (USC)• Dr. Florence Crick (NCCARF)

ATSE 2009• The Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineerin g’s

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia ’s Physical Infrastructure notes that the major potential impacts arise from combinations of predicted climate change scenarios. U sing standard risk assessment techniques, ATSE identified the most vulnerable infrastructure to be:

• Energy generation and distribution , due to extreme temperatures, bushfires and drought (reduced cooling water)

• Low-lying coastal developments , due to sea level rise, storm surge and/or extreme rainfall

• Drainage, stormwater and sewerage infrastructure where significant rainfall intensity is projected.

• The consequences of climate change on the transport a nd communications sectors will be minor-to-moderate, re lative to these others, with adaptation measures requiring only minor to moderate investment…..where this infrastructure is lo cated in a vulnerable area….. it will obviously require attention, especially when it concerns key assets such as major transport rou tes, …. hospitals and communications transmitters.

Sea level rise scenarios adoptedRecent NSW draft policy is 0.9 m at 2100

Year and Sea Level Rise relative to 1990 (m)

SLR Scenario 2050 2100

“Mid” range scenario 0.2 0.4

“High” range scenario 0.3 0.9

Typical beach recessions with sea level rise• 2100 mid scenario (0.4m) 24 m beach recession• 2100 high scenario (0.9m) 44 m beach recessionNote typical mid-tide widths: Manly 50 m, Bondi 90 m

Queenscliff-Manly 1986

Workshops - Settlements and infrastructure Draft issues & needs - design information

• Data – past and present– coordination, quality control, storage, access

• Improved future data gathering, control, storage an d access

• Recognition that sea level rise is climate change parameter that will have highest impact

• Vulnerability mapping at regional and local scales• Network capacity constraints for water, energy,

transport even without climate change

Workshops - Settlements and infrastructure Draft issues & needs - design information

• Selection of consistent design standards and planning periods for different assets and key infrastructure for remote settlements to large cities

• Critical interdependence of key infrastructure, built and urban environments

• What makes liveable and safe built and urban environments – community expectations?

Workshops - Settlements and infrastructure Draft issues & needs - design information

• Resilience and longevity of innovative building and urban designs to better handle increased temperatures, longer droughts and more extreme weather - the “queenslander” (elevated house on piles ) vs slab on ground

• Effectiveness of building types and water options f or different regions

• Guidelines for creating buildings and infrastructur e which is adaptable to climate change.

• Recommendations for the community on how to make individual dwellings adaptable to climate change.

Workshops - Settlements and infrastructureDraft issues & needs – governance, socio-economic

• Community awareness/education of climate change and impacts

• Community awareness/education of the need for climate change adaptation

• Capacity building – educating engineers, planners, trades, community

Workshops - Settlements and infrastructureDraft issues & needs – governance, socio-economic

• Paralysis of responsibility and liability across three levels of government –needs resolution

• Financial analysis /modelling for longer planning horizons with variable change and uncertainty –standard treasury models are no longer appropriate for climate change

• Decision making with limited resources – trade-offs and value sets – levees and/or beach sand replenishment VS parks, bicycle paths, bus shelters, library books

Adopted from Sanders 2008

Thank you r.cox@unsw.edu.auwww.nccarf.edu.au