Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Assessing Needs of Care in European Nations

Seventh Framework Programme

Esther Mot

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Beatles

When I'm 64

When I get older losing my hair, Many years from now, Will you still be sending me a valentine Birthday greetings bottle of wine?

If I'd been out till quarter to three Would you lock the door, Will you still need me, will you still feed me, When I'm sixty-four?

………..

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

The issue

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Background

Demand for care► Ageing of the baby boom► Life expectancy► Life style (smoking cessation, obesity)

Labour supply

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

2008 versus 2040

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

2040 after adjustment

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Questions Ancien

How will need, demand, supply and use of LTC develop?

How do different systems of LTC perform?

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Organisation Ancien

Coordination: ► Center for European Policy Studies

(CEPS): Güldem Okem

Scientific coordination► Federal Planning bureau (FPB): Peter

Willemé► Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy

Analysis (CPB): Esther Mot

Consortium:► 20 partners from 15 eu-countries

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Start of the project

portray LTC-systems in Europe► standardised format► data collection► typologies

selection of countries to model

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Modelling for selected countries

needs (lifestyle)

supply (formal and informal)

use

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Needs

projection of LTC needs► demography► risk factors (smoking, obesity)► education

alternative scenarios► demography only► trends in risk factors► effective intervention policies

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Supply

econometric analysis supply of:► informal care ► formal care► link with regulation

choice of care burden of caregivers labour market implications

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Use

micromodel to explain LTC usemacroprojections based on

micromodel policy simulations

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Qualitative analysis

quality of care► review of policies► selection of promising indicators

role of technology► potential solutions ► potential impact on challenges LTC► analysis of feasibility

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Final analysis

systems performance► simulations with the models (effect of

system on need, supply and use)► consultation of partners► analysis of performance

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Practical details

Start: 1/1/2009 (?)

Finish: in 2012

Website:► www.enepri.org

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

The end

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

20 partners from:

Austria Belgium Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Italy

Netherlands Poland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United

Kingdom

Ancien

Firenze,27 nov 2008

Structure of the project

Conceptual model of LTC needs and use

Demography Life-style Socio-economic status

WP 2

Needs

Supply of formal care Supply of informal care

WP 3

WP 7

WP 1 Technology Quality of care

WP 4 WP 5

Projection of LTC use

at micro level

WP 6

Projection of LTC use LTC policy

at macro level

Dissemination: WP 8

Management and administration: WP 9

Institu-tional

factors: Organiza-

tion / financing

Analysis of system

perfor-mance

Choice model: informal/formal, at home/residential