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CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate ( EPIC ) Land-Atmosphere Interactions Understand and model land-atmosphere interactions Land surface model Land data assimilation system - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities

- Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions- Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases

- Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC)

- Land-Atmosphere Interactions- Understand and model land-atmosphere interactions

- Land surface model- Land data assimilation system

- Develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models and analyses

- Regional Reanalysis and regional climate modeling

- Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions- Evaluate and improve the observing and coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system

- North American monsoon experiment (NAME)- Western mountain hydroclimate- Drought and climate extremes predictability

- Water Resource Applications- interpret climate forecasts for better water resource management

- hydrologic predictability- improve hydrologic forecasting- develop water resource decision support tools

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Expected short-term CPPA Achievements

• reduced ocean-atmosphere model biases

• improved land surface model as part of global climate models

• operational global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) which provides initial land states for GCM

• improved seasonal predictions via regional climate models

• improved warm season precipitation prediction

• better drought monitoring and prediction products

• improved applications of climate forecasts for various decision support

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Opportunities in next 10 years(from advances in the entire science and technology communities)

• new and improved observations and data• for process studies; better initial conditions; model validation

• increased computing power• higher resolution models; larger ensemble runs;

• increased complexity of models• process-resolved models, e.g., cloud-resolving models, dynamic vegetation

• modern data assimilation

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CPPA Long-term Directionto address remaining uncertainties

• focus on regional impacts of global & large scale variability

• study and simulate fine-scale, more complex physical processes • predictability of the coupled climate/Earth system• clouds and land-atmosphere coupling; • meso-scale air-sea interaction

• field experiments in support of model improvements (CPT approach)

• continue to transfer research into NOAA operations

• expand applications beyond water resource management• fire• agriculture

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CPPA FY07-09 Priorities • Drought predictability and prediction

• Large scale forcing; regional and small scale feedbacks;

• American Monsoon monitoring and prediction

• Land surface processes and modeling

• Tropical Pacific SST prediction• double ITCZ; eastern ocean boundary SST;

• Field experiments (using CPT approach)• Western Mountain Hydroclimate Studies (winter season)• VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)

• Improve applications of climate forecast for water resource management

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Western Mountain Hydroclimatology

Modeled snowpack andrunoff improved with

topographic Influences (Leung et al.)

Monsoon mountainrainfall very sensitiveto model parameterizations(Gochis et al.)

Challenge and future studies:

• Observations and data analyses– orographic precipitation including assimilating remote sensing data– hydroclimatic processes in western mountains in cold seasons

• Prediction– downscaling precipitation forecasts from large scale to sub-basin– seasonal predictability in mountain regions (local and remote forcing)– representation of subgrid variability of hydrologic variables (precipitation, snow, togography, vegetation) in climate models

- A planning meeting will be held in 2006 to developimplementation strategies- will leverage community and interagency effort

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VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)

• VOCALS is an international program for studies of the eastern tropical Pacific climate

• VOCALS is a post EPIC study

• Science goals emphasize: • Interactions between the climate in the southeastern Pacific and remote climates, particularly over South America and its monsoon system, • Biases in coupled GCMs and effects on seasonal and interannual predictability,• Local air-sea interactions, including stratocumulus clouds.

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Main Users of CPPA Program • NWS operations

• NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and GFDL climate model• NWS/OHD & RFCs hydrologic prediction system

Information needs: improved understanding and modeling of climate processes and improved forecast skill

• Water resource managersInformation needs: downscaling of climate forecasts and regionalized forecasts

• Fire manager, agriculture, …Information needs:

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How to measure program progress? • number of new/improved products

• new/improved model components and schemes

• reports on predictability studies

• demonstration of improved simulation/forecast skills

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How to engage stakeholders?

• How does CPPA engage stakeholders and end users?• direct engagement:

• fund projects to directly work with stakeholders• CPPA Core Project to directly transfer research into NWS operations

• indirect engagement thru partnership with other programs, such as, SARP, NCTP• example: experimental hydrologic prediction system

• How to quantify the impacts of CPPA on stakeholders?• number of case studies and successful stories

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CPPA International Components

• meetings for scientific planning, field coordination, and post-field data set development, analyses, and modeling

• travel of international PIs and their students to participate in the field and to enable joint research among investigators

• transfer of research into other countries– Expand LDAS and hydrologic Prediction system into Mexico– Test Eta model in S. America

• forecaster exchanges

• collaborative deployment and operation of observing systems

• cooperative development and provision of data sets

• observing system design and transition to operations

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CPPA Educational Components

• training courses in observations, analysis and modeling

• graduate education opportunities at US institutions

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- Does NOAA Climate Prediction & Project Program support international climate operations/services?

- NOAA needs a mechanism for operational organizations to take over long-term research data development so that research funds can be released to support new research.