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MAY 11, 2016, GLOBAL PROMOTION OPTIMIZATION SUMMIT, BRUSSELS
CRACKING THE CODE ON EUROPEANBEST-‐IN-‐CLASS
TRADE PROMOTION
Rick HallGlobal Lead, Sales Effectiveness
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2
AN UNCOMMON VIEW OF THE CONSUMER
Global Leader Consumer Insights• Operate in over 100 countries measuring what consumers watch and buy• Work through direct retail relationships and sales audit to measure sales• Data, Measurement + Advanced Analytics + Software + Service
Four Practices, End-‐to-‐End Understanding of the Consumer• Innovation – Drive new products based on consumer demand• Marketing Effectiveness – Understand the overall spending on advertising and sales• Sales Effectiveness – Drive performance through the sales process• Consumerization – Drive programs down to the consumer segment
Sales Effectiveness• Planning:
• Revenue Management and Optimization (Price & Promotion)• Assortment & Space Optimization
• Activation:• Store execution and on shelf availability• Post-‐event analytics
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
3
MULTIPLE PROGRAMS DRIVE PERFORMANCE
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
BRAND MARKETING PRICE, PROMOTION AND ASSORTMENT
NEW PRODUCTPERFORMANCE
ON SHELF AVAILABILITY
CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
4
NIELSEN DATA SCIENCE LEADS THE INDUSTRY
NETWORKING
• Taps into new expertise/research to ensure we are on the cutting edge of key areas; research collaborations, industry task force involvement and sponsorship of science symposia
• Partners with industry organizations such as the Council for Research Excellence to exchange latest ideas and to solve mutual problems
• Works with research universities around the globe such as University of Chicago, Oxford University, National University of Singaporeand University of Mumbai
• Provides statistics forWhite Houseand U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
TOP TALENT
• Largest Global Data Science Organization withmore than 900 associates
• Embedded in every Solution
• Present in 100 countries
• More than 50 PhDs rivals top university mathematics departments
• Greatest Available Industry Data
• Leading experts in statistics, neuroscience and behavioral studies
• Leaders in Research: (2015 Activity)
• 12 science publications,
• 43 patent submissions &
• 50 professional conference presentations
• Nielsen Innovation is accelerating
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
5
SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS ARE MADE Globally, over half a trillion $ is invested annually in trade promotion
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
$500,000,000,000
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
6
MEASURE & MODEL GLOBAL CONSUMER BEHAVIORAnalytics Platform – Big Data, Models, Access
* Not yet broadly available; due out in 2016
Building a Common Data Environment – Granular DataOver 100 countries sales data loaded into the environmentStandardized data model for all countries and outletsCommon services for access and processing
Applying Data Sciences on Global ScalePromotional Benchmarks { US, CA, GB, FR, ES, IT, DE }Core Price & Promotion Models { US, CA, GB, FR, ES, IT, DE }Assortment models to derive incrementality *On-‐Shelf Availability *
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
7
TRADE PROMOTION BENCHMARK DATABASE• The largest global benchmarking program ever conducted.• Market coverage: US, Canada, France, Germany, UK, Italy and Spain • Data collection started Q1 2012, updated quarterly
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
331CPG CATEGORIES
4.9MMGTINs
93MM2015
EVENT WEEKS
810B2015
TOTAL RETAIL SALES
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
8
COMPREHENSIVE PROMOTIONAL BENCHMARKSNow with two years of results.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Already the most comprehensive study of promotions yet conducted by anyone
Market-‐wide analysis of promotional performance
Understand performance variation (Trade Efficiency) and identify best-‐in-‐class promotions
Built using granular (store week GTIN) data
331 Categories across 15 departments
Covers $810 billion annually in NA & Top 5 EU markets’ retail sales across all stores (excluding Walmart, Carrefour, and Discounters)
Almost 5MM GTINs and over 93MM annual events analyzed
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
9
NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK TO MEASURE RETURNRobust approach provides rich promotion insights
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Isolate Events • Identify promotion weeks based depth of discount vs. everyday price
Build a Calculation Framework • Incremental Sales = Total Sales – Baseline• Incremental Cost = Direct Trade Expense + Incremental COGs• Trade Return = Incremental Sales – Incremental Cost
Derive Promotion Costs by Applying Industry Standards• Manufacturers pay 80%-‐90% of Discount• Standard Cost for COGs, Feature & Display
Calculate Key Efficiency Metrics for Analysis• Trade Efficiency = Trade Return / Dollar Invested• % Sales on Trade
1
2
3
4
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
10
EVENTS IDENTIFIED BASED ON SALES AND CASUAL DATA Sales and Event Examples:
Events are categorized based on promotion type, depth, and use of holiday timing
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
-‐
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Unit Sales Feature TPR Average Price
SalesUnits
Average Price
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
11
CONTINUOUS PRICE AND PROMOTION MODELS • The largest set of global models ever estimated.• Country coverage: US, Canada, France, Germany, UK, Italy and Spain • Models currently cover data from January 2014 to March 2016.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
CPG CATEGORIES GTINs
331 4.9MM 1.6BCOEFFICIENTSESTIMATED
b
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
12
PROPRIETARY ELASTICITY ANALYTICSNielsen uses store level sales and causal data to feed our econometric pricing and promotion models to deliver the most accurate results
INDUSTRY LEADING ANALYTIC APPROACH
Sales = f (Own Regular Price + Own Regular Price vs Comp. + Own Promo Price + Own Promo Activity + Comp. Promo Activity + Seasonality + Store Effects + Random Term)
• Isolates impact of a price change on sales, independent from other variables such as seasonality, distribution, etc.
• Optimize price and other promotion variables together to create the best plan
PROPRIETARY DATA ACCESS
• Control for variables that differ within a market (i.e. distribution, price, in-‐store support, etc.)
• More accurate modeling of consumer response and higher model confidence
Competitive Price Change
TPR + Display
TPR Only
Regular PriceDecrease
BonusPack
ABSOLUTEELASTICITY
RELATIVEELASTICITY
TOTALELASTICITY
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
13
CORE PRICE AND PROMOTION MODELS ENABLEScenario planning, optimization and sales decompositions.
Components addressed by these models:
Acting on Self (Non-‐competitive):• Regular price elasticity (and thresholds)
• Promoted price elasticity (and thresholds)
• Promotion mechanic lift – Feature, Display, Special Pack
• Promotion offer types – e.g. Multi-‐buys
Acting on Others (Competitive):• Regular price cross-‐elasticity
• Promoted price cross-‐elasticity
• Promotion cross-‐impacts
• Distribution cross-‐impacts
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
b
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
14
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
15
WE ALL KNOW PROMOTIONS CAN BE INEFFICIENTThe majority of trade promotion events don’t break even
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
of promotions globally
DON’T BREAK EVEN
59%
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
16Nielsen Scantrack: xAOCYTD 2015 through 9/26/15 VS. 2012
more items are in distribution, but sales velocity is declining
cost of out-‐of-‐stocks: ~8% (in)efficiency
DEPARTMENT TRENDSTOP 5 DEPARTMENTS -‐ $ SALES YTD 2015
9%
14%
9%
3%
6%
-‐7% -‐8%
-‐6%
-‐1% -‐1%
GROCERY DAIRY HOUSEHOLD CARE FROZEN FOODS PERSONAL CARE
TDP
$ VELOCITY
CURRENT SALES PRACTICES LEAVE OPPORTUNITY
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1717
LARGE MANUFACTURERS AREN’T KEEPING UP
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Data, 4; CAGR May 2010-‐2015
vs
LARGE MANUFACTURERS
MIDDLE-‐MARKET MANUFACTURERS
28% flat or decliningGROWTH RATE 9%
42% flat or decliningGROWTH RATE 3%
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
18
EVERY COUNTRY HAS ITS WINNERS AND LOSERS
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
No Country is showing year over year improvements.
41%
46%
43%
45%
42%
57%
51%
52%
58%
60%
58%
61%
71%
72%
59%
54%
57%
55%
58%
43%
49%
48%
42%
40%
42%
39%
29%
28%
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
Italy
Germ
any
Canada
Spain
GBFrance
US
% don't break even % make money
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
19
TRADE PROMOTIONS INCREASE WHILE ROI DECLINESPromotion Frequency and Trade ROI Trend – 2012-‐2015
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
4.3%
4.4%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.1%
$0.89
$0.90
$0.91
$0.92
$0.93
$0.94
$0.95
$0.96
$0.97
Prom
otion F
requ
ency
Manufacturer Trade Efficiency
Global Trend: US, Canada, and Top 5 EU Markets
Manufacturer Trade Efficiency Promotion Frequency Trade Efficiency Trend Promo Frequency Trend
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
20
SUCCESSFUL EVENTS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE STOREPromotion effectiveness by department has remained stable over the past few years.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
% OF WEEKS THAT MAKE MONEY (TOP 5 EU)
2014 2015
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
21
PROMOTIONAL FREQUENCY REMAINS STABLE OVER TIMENumber of event weeks vary by department but have not changed since last year.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
% OF WEEKS ON PROMOTION (TOP 5 EU)
2014 2015
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
22
DEPTH OF DISCOUNT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLYHealth & Beauty Aids and Home Care are the only departments to give lower discounts.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
28%
21% 22%20%
17%16% 15%
13% 12%10%
27%
23% 22%21%
18%17%
15%14%
13% 12%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
AVERAGE DISCOUNT % (TOP 5 EU)
2014 2015
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
23Most Efficient Least Efficient
0 < Trade Efficiency < 100
CATEGORY SUCCESS VARIES SIGNIFICANTLYUnderstanding where your business falls is valuable context
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Efficiency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SKIN COSM
ETFA
BRIC SOFTEN
ERS
LAUN
DRY DE
TFISH
AMBIEN
TCO
SMETICS NA
IL CAR
EMEA
T PROD AM
BCO
FFEE
JAMS
ELECTRIC TOOTH
BRUS
HES
SEXU
AL HEA
LTH
AFTERSUN
PATE/FOIS GRA
S AM
BIEN
TCA
KE/DESSERTS FROZEN
TOOTH
PASTE
ICE CREA
MFISH
EGG
S/SEAFOO
D FROZ
ENDE
PILATO
RIES
HH CLEAN
ERS SPECIFIC USE
VEGE
TABLES AMBIEN
THA
IR STYLING
MEA
T FROZEN
MAN
UAL T
OOTH
BRUS
HES
CANN
ED FRU
ITINFU
SIONS
LIP CA
RE M
OISTU
RISERS
CLEA
NING
CLO
THS
CHEESE FRESH
INSECT TREAT
MEN
TSA
USAG
ES AMBIEN
TMEA
LS FRESH
MILK
SEED
S & NUT
SSYRU
PS/CONC
ENTRAT
ESHA
ND CLEAN
SING
SPORTS DR
INKS
SAUS
AGES FRESH
CARBONA
TED SO
FT DRINK
SSPICES
WHIPPED
CREAM SALT
HOUS
EHOLD PAP
ER /P
LASTIC
CHEW
ING GU
MEN
ERGY
DRINK
SFRUIT JUICE FRESH
TOMAT
O CONC
ENTRATES
COTTON WOOL
PIZZA FRESH
FRESHN
ERS BREA
TH PORTAB
LEMILK FRESH
Euro Categories’ % of Events Weeks Break Even
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
24
SO WHAT MAKES AN EFFECTIVE EVENT?
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25
WHICH FACTORS POINT TO MORE EFFECTIVE EVENTS?Are there clear indicators of successful event?
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Potential Indicator RelationshipStrength
Direction ofRelationship
Product Group ??
Category Size ??
Average Price ??
Average Discount ??
Promotion Frequency ??
Quality Support ??
Category Display Weeks ??
Category Feature Weeks ??
Promoted Price Elasticity ??
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
26
NON-‐FOOD CATEGORIES TEND TO BE MORE SUCCESSFULFood product categories trail the rest of the store by 10 points or more.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
59%
55%
48%PERSONAL CARE HOME CARE FOOD
% of Weeks Making Money by Product Category
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
27
PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT IS EVEN ACROSS PRODUCTSBoth Food and Non-‐Food products receive similar promotional support, despite the difference in promotional success
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
27% 26% 25%
15% 16% 15%
PERSONAL CARE HOME CARE FOOD
% of W
eeks with
Supp
ort
Promotional Support by Product Type
Feature Frequency Display Frequency
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
28
STAPLES ARE JUST AS SUCCESSFUL AS NON-‐ESSENTIALSSuccessful events are just as likely among staple products as with others.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
51% 50%
NON-‐STAPLE STAPLE
% Success by Staple vs Non-‐Staple Product
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
29
PRODUCT GROUP TELLS US A BIT, BUT NOT ENOUGHWithin each groups of categories there is still a wide variety of responses.
So, these findings are general trends not hard and fast rules.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Rank Personal Care Home Care Food
1 Fragrances (78%) Insect Repellent (100%) Edible Oils (68%)
2 Bath Additives (74%) AutoDishWash Detergent (72%) Fish (ambient) (64%)
…
n-‐1 Denture Fixatives (38%) Cotton / wool (34%) Fruit Compote (27%)
n Breath Fresheners (29%) AutoDishWash Salt ( 27% ) Fresh Milk (22%)
All (59%) (55%) (48%)
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
30
CATEGORY SIZE DOES NOT DICTATE PERFORMANCEThere is no relationship between category size and promotion efficiency
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
CHEESE FRESH
MEA
LS FRESH
MILK
CRISPS & CHIPS
ICE CREA
MSA
UCES
DOG FO
OD
FISH
FRO
ZEN
HAIR SHA
MPO
OVE
GETA
BLE FROZEN
BABY M
ILK
KITCHE
N TO
WELS
AMBIEN
T OTH
ERS
PIZZA FRESH
BODY
CAR
ESU
GAR
SEAF
OOD/SURIMI FRESH
FACIAL TISSUE
SNAC
K BA
RSFROZEN OTH
ERS
CAKE/DESSERTS FROZEN
RAZO
RSCLEA
NING
CLO
THS
PATE/FOIS GRA
SWHIPPED
CREAM
PAPER NA
PKINS
COTTON WOOL
SALTY SN
ACKS
BATH
ADD
ITIVES
SEXU
AL HEA
LTH
HOMECAR
E OTH
.AC
NE REM
EDIES
DENT
AL FLO
SS/STICKS
INSTAN
T SO
UPMEA
T SU
BSTITUTE AMBIENT
DENT
URE CLEA
NING
COFFEE SUB
STITUT
ESLAUN
DRY STAIN REMOVERS
TOOTH
WHITENE
RSSKIN COSM
ET
-‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
% of Events M
aking M
ondy
Euro Category S
ize (Retail Sales)
Millions
Category Size & % of Event Weeks Making Money
Category Size (Retail Sales Value in MM Euros) % of events with trade efficiency > 1
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
31
LARGER DISCOUNTS ARE NOT MORE SUCCESSFULLarger discounts don’t explain the variation in success
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-‐40% -‐35% -‐30% -‐25% -‐20% -‐15% -‐10% -‐5% 0%
% of W
eeks Successful
Average Discount
Cateogry Success by Average Discount
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
32
FREQUENT PROMOTIONS ARE NOT MORE SUCCESSFULCategories with more frequent promotions do not drive success for Food or Personal Care products.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
% of W
eeks Successful
Promotion Frequency
Cateogry Success by Promotion Frequency
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
33
PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT BRINGS MORE EFFICIENCYBest-‐in-‐class events used 22% more promotional support than the least efficient
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Tactic (any DP) Tactic (any FT)
Promotional Support Usage
Top 10% Events Bottom 10% Events
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
34
FREQUENT DISPLAYS TEND TO BE MORE SUCCESSFULThis pattern is consistent across product types, and strongest for Home Care
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
% of W
eeks Successful
Display Frequency
Cateogry Success by Display Frequency
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
35
BUT DISPLAY SUPPORT DOESN’T GUARANTEE SUCCESSSupport helps success, but other factors need to be taken into consideration
41%
27%
20% 19%
61%58%
20% 19%
BABY WIPES DRESSINGS FRUIT COMPOTE HAIR SHAMPOO BABY WIPES DRESSINGS FRUIT COMPOTE HAIR SHAMPOO
% SUCCESSFUL EVENTS % DISPLAY SUPPORT
Event Success vs. Display Support
Food Personal Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
36
FEATURE SUPPORT ALSO SEEMS TO HELPFood and Home Care categories show a stronger relationship than Personal Care
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
% of W
eeks Successful
Feature Frequency
Cateogry Success by Feature Frequency
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
37
FEATURE SUPPORT DOESN’T GUARANTEE SUCCESSMustard and Fresh Milk receive similar feature support but Mustard is more likely to have a successful promotion
38%
22%26% 26%
61%56%
26% 27%
Baby Wipes Mouthwash Mustard Fresh Milks Baby Wipes Mouthwash Mustard Fresh Milks
% Successful Events % Feature Support
Event Success vs. Feature Support
Food Personal Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
38
CATEGORIES WITH HIGHER AVERAGE PRICES TEND TO HAVE MORE SUCCESSFUL EVENTSThis pattern is consistent across product types
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-‐1 -‐0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
% of W
eeks Successful
Ln(Average Unit Price)
Cateogry Success by Average Unit Price
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
39
CATEGORIES THAT ARE MORE PRICE SENSITIVE TEND TO HAVE MORE SUCCESSFUL EVENTSThis pattern is consistent across product types
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-‐4 -‐3.5 -‐3 -‐2.5 -‐2 -‐1.5 -‐1 -‐0.5 0
% of W
eeks Successful
Promoted Price Elasticity
Cateogry Success by Promoted Price Elasticity
Personal Care Food Home Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
40
PROMOTIONAL SUCCESS RELATES TO PRICE ELASTICITYTrends suggest to focus price cuts on elastic categories; dynamics differ by country.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
ROI vs Promoted Price Elasticity
Germany
Spain
France
Great Britain
Italy
More Elastic
More
Successful
Less
Successful
Less Elastic
Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
41
FURTHER INVESTIGATIONS USING PRICE ELASTICITY
We’ve seen evidence that ROI and Elasticity are linked.
What are these elastic products?
This relationship proves some common intuitions
but also uncovers complex underlying relationships.
Scope/Definitions:
200 EuroCategories spanning Top5 European countries“Most Sensitive” = 25 most elastic product categories “Least Sensitive” = 25 least elastic product categories
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
42
MOST ELASTIC CATEGORIES ACROSS COUNTRIES20% of the “Most Sensitive” categories appear in 4 of the top 5 countries
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
CategoryNumber OfCountries in Top 15%
% Event Success Rank* (EU Top5)
Average % Success (EU Top5)
Hand Dish Soap 5 23 61%
Edible Oils 5 8 68%
Fabric Softeners 4 9 68%
Kitchen Towels 4 39 58%
Sweet Spreads 4 63 54%
Toilet Paper 4 22 61%
Although these categories are all price sensitive, there is still great variation in success rates for promotional events
*Rank is out of 198
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
43
LEAST ELASTIC CATEGORIES ACROSS COUNTRIES20% of the “Least Sensitive” categories appear in 4 of the top 5 countries
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Although these categories are relatively inelastic, many have higher than average rates of promotional success
All Personal Care Categorie
s
CategoryNumber OfCountries in Bottom 15%
% Event Success Rank* (EU Top5)
Average % Success (EU Top5)
Cosmetics -‐ Lip 4 6 69%
Cosmetics – Nail Care 4 21 62%
Cosmetics -‐ Face 4 7 69%
Portable Breath Freshners 4 194 29%
Lip Care 4 27 61%
Sexual Health 4 41 57%
*Rank is out of 198
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
44
16 OF TOP 25 MOST ELASTIC CATEGORIES ARE FOODPersonal care categories dominate the least sensitive group.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
7 8
16
3
2
14
MOST SENSITIVE LEAST SENSITIVE
Number of Categories By Product Type
Home Care Food Personal Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
45
THE RESULTS VARY WIDELY ACROSS COUNTRIESPricing dynamics within product type changes by country
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
6 6 4 5 5 47 8 6 7
4
18
12 12
2
20
7
15
7
1715
1
9 8
18
1
11
2
12
1
Least Sensitive
Most Sensitive
Least Sensitive
Most Sensitive
Least Sensitive
Most Sensitive
Least Sensitive
Most Sensitive
Least Sensitive
Most Sensitive
DE ES FR GB IT
Category Counts By Product Type
Home Care Food Personal Care
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
46
CONFIRMING INTUITION ??The “swappable” categories correspond to the highest elasticities
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
11
22
14
3
MOST SENSITIVE LEAST SENSITIVE
Number of Categories By Swappable Class
Swappable
Non-‐Swappable
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
47
THE RESULTS VARY WIDELY ACROSS COUNTRIESCategory competition affects elasticity differently across countries
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
3
1712 11
2
18
7
14
6
17
22
813 14
23
7
18
11
19
8
LEAST SENSITIVE
MOST SENSITIVE
LEAST SENSITIVE
MOST SENSITIVE
LEAST SENSITIVE
MOST SENSITIVE
LEAST SENSITIVE
MOST SENSITIVE
LEAST SENSITIVE
MOST SENSITIVE
DE ES FR GB IT
Category Counts By Product Type
Swappable Non-‐Swappable
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
48
WHICH FACTORS POINT TO MORE EFFECTIVE EVENTS?To review what we have seen, here’s an Indicator Scorecard…..
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Potential Indicator Relationship Strength Relationship Direction
Product Class Strong Non-‐food is better.
Category Size Weak Positive
Average Price Strong Positive
Average Discount Weak Positive
Promotion Frequency Weak Positive
Quality Support? Strong With support is better.
Category Display Weeks Moderate Positive
Category Feature Weeks Moderate Positive
Promoted Price Elasticity Strong Positive (magnitude)
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
49
LEARNINGS
Don’t expect. There is not A MAGIC KEY that opens each door (magic formula of efficient trade promotions that will fit each market, each category, each channel, brand, and SKU).
Crack the code of Best-‐in-‐Class Trade Promotion in YOUR category, YOUR market, taking into account multichannel retail landscape.
Nowadays, learning from your own actions is not enough. Also learn from what competition does. Compete with others on trade efficiency, not only on market share.
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
50
DON’T KNOW
THIS IS A BIG CHALLENGE, WHERE DO I START?Understand context and focus on biggest problems in overall process
Benchmark your performance to the industry and your key competitors
Identify the largest pain points in your overall planning process and align solutions
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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PROMOTION BENCHMARK ANALYSISA three-‐step approach to help you understand how well your promotions perform and differences in strategy vs. your competition
Benchmark Assessment
Benchmark your trade promotion performance against other categories and competitors within
your categories
Promotion Diagnostic Check
Measure the effectiveness of different trade
controllables such as promotion tactic and
discount depth
Drill Site Scorecard
Benchmark your promotion strategy vs. best-‐in-‐class
across channels, segments, depth, frequency and
timing
Outcome:Understand how your promotions compare to
best-‐in-‐class
Outcome:Identify the best-‐in-‐class
trade promotion strategies and tactics
Outcome:Prioritize focus areas to bring your promotions to
best-‐in-‐class levels
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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REVENUE MANAGEMENT CYCLEDynamic solution with predictive analytics applied to latest sales data to support on-‐going pricing and promotion decisions, analysis and business planning process
Nielsen Proprietary 2016 Global Benchmark Analysis
ANALYTICS
INTEGRATION
Strategic Planning
Tactical Planning
Promotion Management
RetailExecution
Post-‐EventAnalytics
INPUTS
PnP Modeling
LINKS TO
TPM Integration
S&OP Demand Planning