creating global prosperity€¦ · creating global prosperity nouriel roubini chairman roubini...
TRANSCRIPT
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Kathy
Matsui Vice Chair
Goldman Sachs Japan
Co., Ltd.
Strive
Masiyiwa Founder and
Chairman,
Econet Wireless
Tony Blair Former Prime Minister,
Great Britain and
Northern Ireland
Rudolph Tanzi Professor of Neurology,
Harvard Medical School; Vice
Chair, Neurology Research,
Massachusetts General
Hospital
Creating Global Prosperity
Nouriel Roubini Chairman
Roubini Global Economics &
Professor, Stern School of
Business, NYU
Mike Milken Chairman,
The Milken Institute
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1 billion net new jobs
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First American Political Cartoon
Ben Franklin, 1754: “Join or Die”
N.C
V.
M.
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Government
Regions
Global Conference: The Power of Ideas
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P = Prosperity
Ft = Financial Technology
HC = Human Capital
SC = Social Capital
RA = Real Assets
P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi)
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P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi) Human Capital
Social Capital
Real Assets
• Productivity: • Skills • Education • Training • Experience • Creativity • Habits • Values
• Rule of law • Property rights • Public health • Universal education • Government Leadership • Religious freedom • Police/fire protection • Cultural resources • Universal suffrage • Protection of creditors • Financial Standards
reporting standards • Transparent markets • Regulatory continuity
• Cash • Receivables • Real estate • Factories • Capital equipment • Roads • Buildings • Infrastructure
Financial Technology
• Innovative processes & components including:
• Convertible bonds • Preferred stock • High-yield bonds • Collateralized loans • Collateralized bonds • Equity-linked securities • Securitized obligations
(mortgages, credit cards, etc.)
• Derivatives
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“In Africa today, we recognize that trade and investment, and not aid, are pillars of development..”
H.E. Paul Kagame President, Republic of
Rwanda
Leadership
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“"Real leaders must be ready to sacrifice all for the freedom of their people.”
Nelson Mandela
Leadership
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“The art of leadership is saying no, not saying yes. It is very easy to say yes.”
Tony Blair
Leadership
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Not living on
Farms 58%
1900
Farms 42%
2000
Farms 2%
Not living on
Farms 98%
U.S. Population Living On Farms
Living on
Farms 98%
1800
Not living on farms 2%
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Each farm person fed about two others.
In 1900, 40 million Americans lived on farms and fed 76 million domestically plus 15 million people outside the U.S.
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Each farm person fed about 340 others!
In 2000, 1.5 million Americans lived on farms and fed
290 million domestically plus 220 million others.
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NETWORK TELEVISION
Then NOW 1,785 broadcast channels
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CELLULAR
Then NOW
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MESSAGING
Then NOW
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READING
Then NOW
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NOW
VIDEO
Then
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RESEARCH
Then NOW
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VIDEO GAMES
Then NOW
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TELEPHONE
Then NOW
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MUSIC
Then NOW
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ORGANIZATION
Then NOW
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TRANSPORTATION
Then NOW
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All these things fit
in your pocket!
NOW
YOUR PERSONAL MEDIA
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Singapore’s Orchard Road 1930s
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Orchard Row Today
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27
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$2,255
Source: International Monetary Fund.
Do human capital strategies work?
Per Capita GDP
1960
$2,271
Singapore
Jamaica
$5,096
2015*
$57,442
Note: 2015 data projected.
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Tokyo Post World War II
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Tokyo Today
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Seoul, South Korea 1960
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Seoul Today
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Shanghai 1987
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Shanghai Today
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Dubai 1990
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Dubai Today
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37
• “Poverty was reduced
more in the last 50
years than in the
previous 500.”
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39
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The Growing Middle Class
Source: OECD.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Other
EU
United States
Japan
Other Asia
India
China
Share of global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050
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Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for Next 50 Years
Democracy Disease Education Energy Environment Food Population Poverty Terrorism & War Water
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• Education
• Energy
Nobel Laureates in Science/Medicine
Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for Next 50 Years
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Democracy Disease Education Energy Environment Food Population Poverty Terrorism & War Water
Education Education Education Energy Energy Energy Education Education Education Energy
Humanity’s Top 10 Solutions for Next 50 Years
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Each life is priceless…
but in economic terms, over the past two
centuries, as much as 50% of all economic
growth can be traced to advances in health.
The Value of Health
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Worldwide Life Expectancy Growth
Source: World Health Organization, World Health Statistics 2013
1820 1900 1950 2014
+5
+18
+22 +40
26 Years
31 Years
49 Years
71 Years
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0
20
40
60
80
100
1955 2014
Life Expectancy in East Asia
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition
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Over the past 20 years, the risk of a pregnant woman passing AIDS to her child has dropped from 90% to less than 2%.
Source: March of Dimes; American Pregnancy Association
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35.3 Million People are Living with HIV Worldwide
More than two-thirds are in Sub-Saharan Africa
Nearly 30 million have died since the start of
the epidemic
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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49
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2001 -
2010
11.1%
10.5%
10.3%
8.9%
8.4%
8.2%
7.9%
7.9%
7.7%
7.6%
Angola
China
Myanmar
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Kazakhstan
Chad
Mozambique
Cambodia
Rwanda
2011 -
2020
8.8%
8.2%
7.8%
7.6%
7.2%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
7.0%
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Myanmar
Congo, D.R.
Cambodia
Rwanda
India
Uzbekistan
China
Tanzania
Source: The Economist; IMF (excludes countries with populations<10 million) 2/6/14
Annual Average GDP Growth
World’s Fastest Growing Economies
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Skilled and Unskilled Jobs
60%
20% 20%
Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled
15% 20%
65%
Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled
1950 Today
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Prosperity = a meaningful life
What is prosperity?
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The 21st century is being
defined by a worldwide
competition for
human capital.