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K D W > 8 4 4

Lredtg`o @ew Cdlts j` tme Orju`f_my tme Fgpajkdtgl \uroe Ld``jt WetXrjfule d ^eogj`da \jautgj` g` Dcomd`gstd`

D \ M A E W B . V E A A G \

\e`gjr Dssjlgdte, Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle

E @ F J _ K E @ V C J ^ G @ V E ^ @ D V G J @ D A X E D L E

XJAGLW

N^GEC

74LD^@EOGE

\ U K K D ^ W Datmjuom ked`g`ocua ljjperdtgj` g` tme reogj` surrju`fg`o Dcomd`gstd` gs jc vgtda gkpjrtd`le, gt mds nee` eausgve

nelduse Dcomd`gstd`s iey `egomnjrs mdve sgo`gfflld`tay fgveroe`t dgks. E`og`eerg`o d sullesscua reogj`da sjautgj`

wjuaf requgre tme U`gtef \tdtes tj cu`fdke`tdaay trd`scjrk egtmer tmese dltjrs jnbeltgves jr tmegr fjkg`d`t strdteoges.

Dlmgevg`o tme adtter kdy prjve kjre cedsgnae, kjst lrulgdaay vgs--vgs Xdigstd`.

Vme reogj`s mgstjry jc fgsljrf gs kdg`ay rjjtef g` tme trjunaef readtgj`smgp netwee` Dcomd`gstd` d`f Xdigstd`.

Datmjuom Xdigstd`s g`vjaveke`t g` Dcomd`gstd` gs ljajref ny gts rgvdary wgtm G`fgd, gts readtgj`s wgtm Dcomd`gstd` dre d

oejpjagtglda lmdaae`oe g`fepe`fe`t jc G`fgd nelduse jc gts cedrs jc fgsjrfer daj`o gts wester` njrfers, tme u`wealjke

gfed jc Xdsmtu`gstd`, d`f d readtef aj`o-std`fg`o njrfer fgspute.

Xdigstd`s redltgj` tj tmese prjnaeks mds j`ay exdlerndtef tmek. Ds Gsadkdndf, ny suppjrtg`o tme Vdagnd` g`suroe`ly,

mds sjuomt tj exerlgse prepj`ferd`t, gc `jt jverwee`g`o, g`ue`le jver Idnuas strdteogl lmjgles, gt mds edr`ef Idnuas

fgstrust, feepe`ef tme Idnua@ew Feamg pdrt`ersmgp, d`f g`lredsef tme rgsi tj gts readtgj`s wgtm _dsmg`otj``jt tj

ke`tgj` tmredte`g`o tme agves jc U.\. d`f jtmer ljdagtgj` cjrles jperdtg`o g` Dcomd`gstd`.

Fespgte wgfespredf suppjrt g` Dcomd`gstd` cjr e`fg`o tme wdr tmrjuom d `eojtgdtef settaeke`t gc pjssgnae, tme Dcomd`

Vdagnd` aedfersmgp gs u`agieay tj lj`sgfer relj`lgagdtgj` u`aess gt gs cdlef wgtm tme prjspelt jc lj`tg`uef ajsses jc tme

ig`f sustdg`ef ds d resuat jc ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` >848. D reogj`da sjautgj` gs sgkgadray u`agieay ds aj`o dsDcomd`gstd` d`f gts `egomnjrs, g`laufg`o G`fgd, perlegve Gsadkdndf ds ne`t j` mjafg`o Idnua g` d lmjig`o eknrdle.

\javg`o tmese prjnaeks ages neyj`f tme ldpdngagty jc Dkergld` fgpajkdly, d`f rgomt `jw eve` jc tme prjkgsef

fgpajkdtgl suroe. Vme nest mjpe cjr prjoress ages g` lj`tg`ug`o kgagtdry dltgj` tj dater tme redagtges j` tme orju`f

tmereny g`fulg`o tme Vdagnd` tj lj`sgfer relj`lgagdtgj`, wmgae sgkuatd`ejusay `eutrdagzg`o tme Xdigstd`g strdteoy tmdt gs

lurre`tay preve`tg`o d reogj`da sjautgj`.

Vj g`lredse tme prjndngagty jc kgagtdry sulless, mjwever, Xresgfe`t Jndkd wgaa `eef tj cjroj tme pjagtgldaay ldaluadtef

frdwfjw` jc ljkndt trjjps tmgs sukker d`f g`stedf dllept tme dfvgle jc mgs ffleaf ljkkd`fers tj kdg`tdg` tme adroest

pjssgnae lj`tg`oe`t `elessdry cjr tme ljkg`o ldkpdgo` g` edster` Dcomd`gstd`. Mdrf d`f u`pdadtdnae ds gt kgomt ne cjr

tme presgfe`t, tmgs ljurse daj`e jccers d sjautgj` tmdt wgaa prjtelt tme rele`t odg`s g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f dfvd`le Dkergld`

g`terests jver tme aj`o terk.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

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> LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC

U.\. pjaglykdiers oe`erdaay doree tmdt d

reogj`da sjautgj` gs esse`tgda cjr d sulless-

cua selurgty trd`sgtgj` g` Dcomd`gstd`. Wet

tmere gs lj`sgferdnae fjunt dnjut wmdt sulm

d sjautgj` wjuaf e`tdga, gts prgjrgty readtgvetj jtmer g`struke`ts, d`f wmetmer gt ljuaf

eve` ne vgdnae. Fespgte tmese u`lertdg`tges,

tmere gs strj`o lj`vgltgj` tmdt _dsmg`otj`s

trd`scer jc fece`se respj`sgngagtges tj Idnua

wgaa requgre gts iey `egomnjrs tj suppjrt d`

g`ter`da relj`lgagdtgj` wgtm tme Vdagnd` sj

ds tj e`dnae d pjagtglda prjless tj prjkjte

pedle d`f stdngagty g` Dcomd`gstd`, ds tme

dfkg`gstrdtgj`s >848 revgew pmrdsef gt.

Sgewef g` retrjspelt, tme dfkg`gstrd-tgj`s yedr`g`o cjr d reogj`da sjautgj` tj tme

Dcomd` wdr mds nee` e`furg`onut mds

dasj suntay kutdtef. _me` Xresgfe`t Ndrdli

Jndkd tjji jle, tme quest cjr selurg`o

`egomnjray ljjperdtgj` tj fecedt da-Tdefd

d`f tme Vdagnd` wds frgve` ny mgs ojda jc

oettg`o Dcomd`gstd` rgomt jr, g` jtmer wjrfs,

jc wg``g`o tmgs rgomt wdr g` tme Dkergld`

struooae dodg`st terrjrgsk. Mgs Kdrlm >887

DcXdi revgew laedray ekpmdsgzef tmgsjnbeltgve. Vwj yedrs adter, me gs stgaa seeig`o

d reogj`da ljkpdlt. Nut `jw, frgve` ny tme

lj`vgltgj` tmdt Dkergld` g`vjaveke`t ld`-

`jt ne jpe`-e`fef, me gs mjpg`o tj dvjgf oet-

tg`o Dcomd`gstd` wrj`o jr, g` jtmer wjrfs,

tj dvert ldtdstrjpmgl fgsjrfer ds U.\. kgagtdry

cjrles neog` tj aedve tme lju`try.

Datmjuom tme reogj`da dpprjdlm mds tmus

survgvef ds d perkd`e`t ljkpj`e`t jc tme

dfkg`gstrdtgj`s strdteoy, tme pjagtglda gkper-

dtgves frgvg`o gt mdve lmd`oef rdfgldaay. gs

rdgses d lrgtglda questgj`2 Ld` tme reogj`da

dpprjdlm feagver ljjperdtgj` jwwme` daa

tme `egomnjrg`o stdtes d`tglgpdte Dkerglds

exgtgc gt ljuaf `jt prjfule oe`ug`e lja-

adnjrdtgj` edragerwme` Dkerglds ljkkgt-

ke`t seekef kjre e`furg`o: U`ferstd`fg`o

tmgs gssue gs lrgtgldanecjre tme dfkg`gstrd-

tgj` ekndris j` kjre e`eroetgl fgpajkdly

g`te`fef tj prjfule tme reogj`da settaeke`

tmdt wgaa dvjgf cdgaure g` Dcomd`gstd`.

_MW MD\ D ^EOGJ@DA

\JAUVGJ@ NEE@ \J EAU\GSE:ere gs agttae fjunt tmdt ked`g`ocua reogj`

ljjperdtgj` wjuaf e`md`le tme prjspelts cj

Dkergld` sulless g` Dcomd`gstd`. ^eogj`

ljjperdtgj` kdy eve` ne gkperdtgve cjr d

eeltgve trd`scer jc selurgty respj`sgngagtge

tj Idnua. Ds tme dfkg`gstrdtgj` e`vgsdoes g

tme wdr g` Dcomd`gstd` wgaa e`f `jt tmrjuo

d kgagtdry vgltjry nut j`ay d pjagtglda settae

ke`t, wmglm wjuaf prjkgse refulef vgj

ae`le g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f tmereny edse tmtdsi cdlg`o Dcomd` cjrles sadtef tj tdie prj

oressgveay oredter respj`sgngagty cjr e`surg`

fjkestgl jrfer. e prjspelts cjr sulm d

doreeke`t wjuaf fepe`f j` fflrst dlmgevg`

relj`lgagdtgj` dkj`o tme Dcomd`s tmek

seavesg`laufg`o tme Vdagnd` aedfersmg

d`f gts kd`y lj`ceferdtes, tme adroer Xdsm

tu` pjpuadtgj`, jtmer etm`gl orjups, d`f, j

ljurse, tme `dtgj`da ojver`ke`t gtseac.

gs prjless, tmjuom fgluat, wjuaf nedsef lj`sgferdnay gc Idnuas `egomnjrs wer

tj, ds \elretdry jc \tdte Mgaadry Lag`tj` pu

gt, respelt Dcomd`gstd`s sjverego`ty, wmgl

ked`s doreeg`o `jt tj pady jut tmegr rgvd

rges wgtmg` gts njrfers, d`f tj suppjrt relj`

lgagdtgj` d`f ejrts tj e`sure tmdt da-Tdef

d`f tme sy`fgldte jc terrjrgsk gs fe`gef sdc

mdve` everywmere. G` suppjrt jc tmgs vgsgj`

Lag`tj` feladref tmdt tme U`gtef \tdte

wjuaf kju`t d fgpajkdtgl suroe tj kjv

tmgs lj`glt tjwdrf d pjagtglda jutljke tmd

smdtters tme daagd`le netwee` tme Vdagnd` d`

da-Tdefd, e`fs tme g`suroe`ly, d`f meaps t

prjfule `jt j`ay d kjre stdnae Dcomd`gstd

nut d kjre stdnae reogj`.

_mdtever tme kergts jc tmgs mjpe cj

reogj`da ljjperdtgj`, tmey fj `jt e`sur

tmdt gt wgaa eve`tudaay kdtergdagzeeve`

tme U`gtef \tdtes g`vests oredt fgpajkdtg

Dsmaey B. Veaags gs d se`gjr

dssjlgdte dt tme Ldr`eoge

E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da

Xedle, spelgdagzg`o g`

`ter`dtgj`da selurgty, fece`se,

d`f Dsgd` strdteogl gssues. _mgae

j` dssgo`ke`t tj tme U.\.

Fepdrtke`t jc \tdte ds se`gjr

dfvgser tj tme u`ferselretdry

jc stdte cjr pjagtglda dccdgrs, me

wds g`tgkdteay g`vjavef g`

`eojtgdtg`o tme lgvga `ulaedr

doreeke`t wgtm G`fgd.

Xrevgjusay me wds ljkkgssgj`ef`tj tme Cjrego` \ervgle d`f

servef ds se`gjr dfvgser tj tme

dkndssdfjr dt tme U.\. Ekndssy g`

@ew Feamg. Me dasj servef j` tme

@dtgj`da \elurgty Lju`lga stdcc ds

spelgda dssgstd`t tj tme presgfe t

d`f se`gjr fgreltjr cjr \trdteogl

Xad``g`o d`f \jutmwest Dsgd.

Veaags gs tme lj-dutmjr jc

`terpretg`o Lmg`ds Ord`f

\trdteoy2 Xdst, Xrese`t, d`f Cuture

(>888). Me gs resedrlm fgreltjr jc

tme \trdteogl Dsgd prjordk dt tme

@dtgj`da Nuredu jc Dsgd`

^esedrlm d`f lj-efgtjr jc tme

seve` kjst rele`t d``uda

vjaukes, g`laufg`o tmgs yedrs

\trdteogl Dsgd >848-442Dsgds

^gsg`o Xjwer d`f Dkerglds

Lj`tg`uef Xurpjse.

Vme dutmjr wgsmes tj tmd`i Xeter

Dustg`, Bdli Ogaa, Fd` Kdriey,

essgld Kdtmews, Oejroe

Xerijvglm, Sd`le \erlmui, d`f

severda reogj`da d`f U.\.

ojver`ke`t jcffllgdas wmj

requestef d`j`ykgty cjr tmegr

tmjuomtcua ljkke`ts.

DNJUV VME DUVMJ^

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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 884 d`f >88>, dre, tj put gt padg`ay

tryg`o tj kdie d ljkendli. ey dre seeig`tj restjre tme ruae tmey e`bjyef g` Dcomd`gstd

crjk 4773 tj >884, wme` tmey gkpjsef jrfe

tmrjuom cjrle aeogtgkdtef ny d mdrsm lj`ser

vdtgsk tmdt reljo`gzef `egtmer u`gversda rgom

`jr equdagty jc tredtke`t.

gs pjagtglda systek gs rebeltef ny kjs

Dcomd`s tjfdy d`f, tmjuom tmere gs wgfe sup

pjrt cjr e`fg`o tme wdr tmrjuom d `eojtgdte

settaeke`t gc pjssgnae, `egtmer tme Xdsmtu`

`jr tmjse kg`jrgtges wmj suppjrt tme Dcomdojver`ke`t wjuaf lju`te`d`le d`y dlljr

tmdt wjuaf ogve tme g`suroe`ts fgrelt dlles

tj pjwer u`aess tmey fflrst re`ju`lef vgjae`l

were wgaag`o tj ne testef ny d` eaeltjrda prj

less, d`f fekj`strdtef sjke ljkkgtke`t t

tme Lj`stgtutgj`. Nelduse tme Vdagnd` mdv

`egtmer d`y use cjr sulm `gletges `jr d nur`g`

fesgre tj g`teordte wgtm tme reogke j` tme ad

ters terks, d ljkprjkgse mds prjve` neyj`

redlm. Curtmerkjre, ds aj`o ds tme Tuett\murd rekdg`s lj`vg`lef tmdt tme g`ter`d

tgj`da ljdagtgj` gs medfef cjr d` grrevjldna

exgt, tme elessgty cjr ljkprjkgse neljkes aes

uroe`t nelduse tjtda vgltjry seeks g`evgtdna

j`le tme puppet reogke g` Idnua gs feprgve

jc gts cjrego` prjteltjrs. Cg`daay, tme sd`ltud

ges jeref ny Xdigstd` tj tme Vdagnd`wmer

tmegr iey ldfres ld` mgfe, pad`, jrod`gze, d`

reffltprjvgfe aulrdtgve fgsg`le`tgves tj ljk

prjkgse. D`f ds aj`o ds ^dwdapg`fg prjtelttme iey Vdagnd` aedfers crjk daagef kgagtdr

cjrles, tmere gs `j redsj` wmy tmey smjuaf n

g`terestef g` d`y lj`lgagdtgj` wme`, ny d`

jnbeltgve dssesske`t, tmey mdve nee` sergjusa

fdkdoef nut `jt yet lj`lausgveay fecedte

(see tdnae 4).

gs adst ljkpj`e`t nrg`os tme reogj`

dpprjdlm d`f relj`lgagdtgj`tme twg` pg

adrs jc tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj`s trd`sgtgj

Kjst Dcomd`s seei tj kdg`tdg` rjnust

readtgj`s wgtm G`fgd ds d mefoe dodg`st

tme tmredts pjsef ny Xdigstd`, wmglm

gs see` ds tme oredter fd`oer tj

Dcomd`gstd`s `dtgj`da g`terests.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F ?

4. Vme felag`g`o ecceltgve`ess jc pjpuadtgj` g`tgkgfdtgj`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme oredtest odg`s g` refulg`o Vdagnd` g`tgkgfdtgj` mdve nee` wgt`essef g` Id`fdmdr9 u`tga tmese

exte`f kjre nrjdfay tj tme =8 iey terrdg` fgstrglts g` Dcomd`gstd`, tme \murd wgaa resgst tme lj`lausgj` tmdt gts

kgagtdry ldkpdgo` gs cdgag`o.

>. Fetergjrdtg`o jrod`gzdtgj`da ljmesgj`D\\E\\KE@V2Vmere gs evgfe`le tmdt ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` >848 mdve lredtef cedr, fgskdy, d`f vdlgaadtgj`

dkj`o Vdagnd` cjjt sjafgers d`f ljkkd`fers g` njtm Dcomd`gstd` d`f Xdigstd`. D kulm smdrper dlleaerdtgj` jc

tmgs tre`f wgaa ne esse`tgda necjre tme \murd lj`laufes tmdt lj`tg`ug`o resgstd`le gs u`sustdg`dnae.

848, tme

prgkdry ljkndt kdtergdasskdaa drks, dkku`gtgj`, d`f expajsgvesdre stgaa creeay dvdgadnae g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`

jr g` Xdigstd`.

6. Fepaetg`o dlless tj ffl`d`lgda resjurlesD\\E\\KE@V2Vme prgkdry sjurles jc Vdagnd` ffl`d`le rekdg` cjrego` lj`trgnutgj`s, drljtgls, d`f ajlda tdxes9 j`e

jc tmese sjurles mds yet nee` sunstd`tgdaay u`ferkg`ef ny ljdagtgj` jperdtgj`s.

5. Ajsg`o terrgtjrgda lj`trja g` tme Xdsmtu` dredsD\\E\\KE@V2Datmjuom tme Vdagnd` lj`trja aess tmd` d qudrter jc Dcomd`gstd`s fgstrglts (d`f d` eve` skdaaer crdltgj`

jc gts pjpuadtgj`), tme Vdagnd` prese`le g` tme Xdsmtu` medrtad`f mds nee` sgo`gfflld`t. ^ele`t ljdagtgj` jperdtgj`s

mdve sajway neou` reversg`o Vdagnd` lj`trja, nut tme stgaa-agkgtef `ukner jc trjjps dvdgadnae gkpages tmdt d smdrp

sustdg`efreversda gs stgaa cdr dwdy.

3. Xaukketg`o jperdtgj`da ecceltgve`essD\\E\\KE@V2_mgae tme Vdagnd`s jperdtgj`da ecceltgve`ess mds frdkdtgldaay felredsef g` sjke pdrts jc Dcomd`gstd`

g` Idnua d`f gts e`vgrj`s, cjr exdkpaegts dngagty tj lj`fult dssdssg`dtgj`s, gkprjvgsef expajsgve fevgle dttdlis,

d`f suglgfe njkng`os mds `jt felredsefd`f wgaa g`lredsg`oay neljke d sunstgtute cjr terrgtjrgda lj`trja.

?. G`lredsg`o persj`da fd`oers tj \murd aedfersD\\E\\KE@V2Iey aedfers jc tme Vdagnd` dmndrg \murd (aedfersmgp lju`lga) wmj lj`trja tme cu`ltgj`da ljkkgttees jr

tme reogj`da \murd jperdtgj`s rdreay trdvea tj jr g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`9 ds aj`o ds tmey rekdg` sdce u`fer prjteltgj`

ny G`ter-\ervgles G`teaagoe le g`sgfe Xdigstd`, tmey cdle cew persj`da fd`oers tmdt wjuaf kjtgvdte expajrg`o

relj`lgagdtgj`.

=. Ajsg`o pjagtglda reaevd`le njtm g`sgfe d`f jutsgfe Dcomd`gstd`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme prjspeltgve ajss jc pjagtglda sdage`le wjuaf ne tme strj`oest pjssgnae kjtgvdtgj` cjr Vdagnd`relj`lgagdtgj . Datmjuom wedie`ef ny ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s, tme dnse`le jc d` dater`dtgve Xdsmtu`

aedfersmgp tj tme Vdagnd` d`f tme g`lredsg`o gkpjrtd`le dlljrfef tj tme Vdagnd` ny fgslussgj`s dnjut

relj`lgagdtgj mdve nequedtmef gt wgtm lj`tg`ug`o reaevd`le, fespgte tme Vdagnd` neg`o tme kjst gkpjrtd`t lduse

jc Xdsmtu` ldsudatges tjfdy.

7. Orjwg`o expeltdtgj`s jc d ljdagtgj` exgt crjk Dcomd`gstd`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme strj`oer tme Vdagnd` neagec tmdt tme ljdagtgj` wgaa fepdrt Dcomd`gstd`, tme strj`oer gts fgsg`le`tgves

tj lj`sgferg`o relj`lgagdtgj`9 datmjuom tme prese`le jc cjrego` trjjps fjes kjtgvdte resgstd`le g` sjke fgstrglts,

tme perleptgj` tmdt tme ljdagtgj` wgaa exgt Dcomd`gstd` g` >846 lredtes oredt g`le`tgves tj eslmew relj`lgagdtgj`

d`f jutadst G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`le Cjrle (G\DC) g` tme quest tj reljver lj`trja g` Idnua.

_ME@ _JUAF VME VDAGND@ LJ@\GFE^ ^ELJ@LGAGDVGJ@:Vme Tuettd \murd gs agieay tj lj`sgfer relj`lgag`o wgtm tme Dcomd` ojver`ke`t wme` tme

cjaajwg`o `g`e vdrgdnaes g` tmegr tjtdagty dater sucffllge`tay tj gts fgsdfvd`tdoe. Datmjuom tme

ljdagtgj` mds fgsruptef tme g`suroe`ly lj`sgferdnayds tme d`daysgs mere suooeststme Vdagnd`

dre `jt yet sucffllge`tay cdgag`o tj kdie relj`lgagdtgj` d pdrtgluadray dttrdltgve exgt strdteoy.

VDNAE 4

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= LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC

strdteoyg`tj vglgjus ljaagsgj`. Xdigstd`s red-

sj`s cjr prjteltg`o tme Vdagnd` kdy ne rdtgj-

`da g` terks jc gts jw` seac-g`terest, nut tme

`et eelt gs tj stre`otme` Idnuas lj`vgltgj`

tmdt ^dwdapg`fg j`ay seeis tj curtmer wedie`tme Dcomd`s d`f selure tmegr sunjrfg`dtgj`

ny fgvgfg`o tmek. Kjst Dcomd` eagtes neageve

tmdt gc tme g`suroe`ly were tj ne feprgvef jc

gts Xdigstd`g sd`ltudry, gt wjuaf egtmer rdpgfay

fgssgpdte jr e`f g` d `eojtgdtef settaeke`t j`

tme reogkes terks9 tmdt gt mds jt tmus cdr fj`e

sj, fespgte tme ljdagtgj`s supergjr resjurles,

j`ay suooests tj tmek tme feptms tj wmglm

Xdigstd` wgaa oj tj jnstrult Dcomd` u`gty d`f

aedve Idnua prjstrdte. G` sulm lgrlukstd`les,

Dcomd` aedfers mdve eve` wedier gkpetus tj

padldte Gsadkdndf d`f strj`oer redsj`s tj reay

j` jtmers, sulm ds @ew Feamg d`f _dsmg`otj`,

tj `eutrdagze wmdt dre see` ds Xdigstd`s kdadfflfe g`te`tgj`s tjwdrf tmegr lju`try.

VME J@AWMD^F_DW JUV2

OGSE _D^ D LMD@LELuttg`o tmrjuom tme Ojrfgd` i`jt g`tertwg`-

g`o relj`lgagdtgj` d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj`

mds tmus cdr prjvef neyj`f tme ldpdngagty

jc Dkergld` fgpajkdlycjr ojjf redsj`.

_metmer tmrjuom persudsgj` jr eve` oe`er-

jus g`fuleke`ts, _dsmg`otj` sgkpay ld`-

`jt e`sure egtmer d` Dcomd` dlljkkjfdtgj`

tj Xdigstd`g g`terests (`dkeay, dlleptg`o tme

Furd`f Ag`e d`f ebeltg`o G`fgd crjk Dcomd`-

gstd`) jr d Xdigstd`g re`u`lgdtgj` jc gts kjst

eeltgve ndrodg`g`o lmgp (tme Vdagnd` g`sur-

oe`ts)nelduse edlm sjautgj` u`ferkg`es

egtmer Idnuas jr ^dwdapg`fgs ljre g`terests.

Kjre fgdajoues, g`ter`dtgj`da lj`cere`les,

d`f kefgdtgj` ejrtseve` d fgpajkdtgl

suroewgaa `jt nrgfoe tmgs fgvgfe, neldus

aed`g`o j` Dcomd`gstd` tj dllept sunjrfg`d

tgj` vgs--vgs Xdigstd` gs u`te`dnae, wmgae tm

Xdigstd`g kgagtdry ld``jt ne persudfef tj sdl

rgfflle tme Vdagnd` ds aj`o ds gts pdrd`jgd cjrlegt tj mjaf cdst tj tmdt jptgj`.

G` prg`lgpae, mjwever, tmere gs d wdy jut2 U.\

kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` Dcomd`gstd`. Oe`er

Fdvgf Xetrdeus lurre`t ldkpdgo` jers tm

jppjrtu`gty tj `eutrdagze tme kjst festdngagz

g`o eaeke`ts jc Xdigstd s lurre`t strdteoy d`f

ny exte`sgj`, tj dgf tme prjless jc g`ter`da rel

j`lgagdtgj`wmglm, gc sullesscua, ljuaf lredt

tme prelj`fgtgj`s cjr d cuture Dcomd`Xdigstd

rdpprjlmeke`t d`f oredter reogj`da stdngagtyCjr tmgs prjspelt tj mdve d`y lmd`le jc sulles

mjwever, tme G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`l

Cjrle (G\DC) g` Dcomd`gstd` kust ne dnae t

ljkpaete wmdt gt mds gkpressgveay neou`2 fel

kdtg`o tme Vdagnd` d`f tmegr jperdtgj`da ldpd

ngagty g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`.

Datmjuom Xetrdeus mds wgseay felag`ef tj sul

lukn tj tme tekptdtgj`s jc trgukpmdagskm

mds stdtef, cjr exdkpae, tmdt tme kjke`tuk

dlmgevef ny tme Vdagnd` g` Dcomd`gstd` sg`l>885 mds nee` drrestef g` kulm jc tme lju`tr

d`f reversef g` d `ukner jc gkpjrtd`t dreds,

nut wmgae tme selurgty prjoress dlmgevef jve

tme pdst yedr gs sgo`gfflld`t, gt gs dasj crdogae d`

reversgnaetme trutm jc tme kdtter gs tmdt m

cjrles, g` tme wjrfs jc Crefergli Idod` d`

Igkneray Idod`, fgf u`prelefe`tef fdk

doe tj tme g`suroe`ly wgtmg` Dcomd`gstd` g

>848. us Dkergld` cjrles mdve g`glte

pdg` dt aeveas tmdt tme Tuettd \murd d`f gtXdigstd`g prjteltjrs fj `jt yet cuaay ljk

preme`frd`og`o crjk laedrg`o terrgtjrge

pmysgldaay lj`trjaaef ny tme Vdagnd`, tj erd

g`o g`ter`da sdce mdve`s d`f suppjrt zj`es, t

festrjyg`o e`jrkjus drks ldlmes d`f cdltjrge

kd`ucdlturg`o gkprjvgsef expajsgve fevgle

tj felgkdtg`o tme g`suroe`lys kgfaevea ljk

kd`f eaeke`t (wmglm cu`ltgj`s ds tme ay`lm

pg` netwee` tme Vdagnd`s smdfjw ojver`jrs

Dkergld` cjrles mdve g`gltef pdg` dt aeveas

tmdt tme Tuettd \murd d`f gts Xdigstd`g

prjteltjrs fj `jt yet cuaay ljkpreme`f.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 7

d`f tme fflomtg`o rd`i d`f fflae). e aedfersmgp

g` Tuettd mds respj`fef tj tmese ajsses ny

pressg`o gts fflomters tj retur` tj Dcomd`gstd`

edrager g` tme yedr tmd` usuda d`f ny fekd`f-

g`o kjre suglgfe njkng`os, tdroetef dssdssg-`dtgj`s, d`f ejrts tj g`tgkgfdte tme pjpuad-

tgj`, ljaadnjrdtjrs, d`f ojver`ke`t jlgdas.

D`f tme Xdigstd g kgagtdry mds redltef tj G\DC

sullesses ny dfkj`gsmg`o tme ojver`ke`t jc

Dcomd gstd` tj lj`tekpadte relj`lgagdtgj` j`

gts terks nelduse jc tme lertdg`ty jc eve`tuda

Dkergld` cdgaure.

Fespgte tmese u`ferstd`fdnae redltgj`s,

tme nest kedsure jc G\DCs sulless rekdg`s

`egtmer tme odg`s kdfe ny tme U.\. kgagtdrytmrjuom gts u`gadterda jperdtgj`smjwever

gkpressgve`jr tme fgsdrrdy d`f reneaagjus-

`ess `jw vgsgnae g`sgfe Vdagnd` rd`is nut

rdtmer tme `ukerjus aedfs neg`o prjvgfef

ny jrfg`dry Dcomd`s tj tme selurgty cjrles,

wmglm g` every ldse mdve resuatef g` sulless-

cuaay tdroetg`o g`suroe`t ljkkd`fers, tmegr

dlljkpagles, d`f tmegr wdr kdtrgea. Gc tur`g`o

tme tgfe g` d` g`suroe`ly gs nest presdoef ny

tme ajlda pjpuadtgj`s lmd`og`o ajydatges, tme`G\DCs >848 jperdtgj`s g` Id`fdmdr d`f gts

e`vgrj`s prjvgfe tme nest mjpe. gs gs bust ds

weaa, nelduse gc Xetrdeus cdgas g` Dcomd`gstd`,

d relj`lgagdtgj` wgaa g`feef e`f tme lj`glt,

nut gt wgaa ne tme ljdagtgj` tmdt relj`lgaes wgtm

tme Vdagnd` rdtmer tmd` tme jtmer wdy drju`f.

D kgagtdry stdaekdte wgaa j`ay ne kdrog`daay

netter, nelduse datmjuom gt kdy ljkpea `eoj-

tgdtgj`s tj neog`, tmese pdraeys dre u`agieay tj

e`f sullesscuaaytme usuda jutljke g` kjst

g`ter`da wdrsogve` tme persgste`t cedr j`

njtm sgfes dnjut mjw d`y doreef-j` settae-

ke`t wjuaf ne e`cjrlef wme` `egtmer j`e

e`bjys d kj`jpjay jc cjrle.

e sullesscua exte`sgj` jc G\DC jperd-

tgj`s tj Ajyd Xditgdpad``ef cjr adter g`

>844 jr >84>wjuaf, g` lj`trdst, prjvgfe

curtmer redsj` cjr Xdigstd` tj revgew tme wgs-

fjk jc persgstg`o wgtm gts lurre`t odkngt jc

suppjrtg`o tme Vdagnd` lj`ceferdly dodg`st tme

Dcomd` stdte. gs strdteoy rekdg`s se`sgnae

j`ay ds aj`o ds gt gs sullesscua. Nut gc G\DC gs

dnae tj u`ferkg`e gt `jt ny jvertay dttdli-

g`o tme sd`ltudrges g` Xdigstd` nut rdtmer ny

eagkg`dtg`o tme kgfaevea ljkkd`fers d`f

tmegr dljaytes wmj fflomt wgtmg` wdaig`o fgs-

td`le jc tmegr mjkeswmgae tme ojver`ke`t

jc Dcomd`gstd` wed`s tme aukpe` re`t-d-

Vdagnd` j tme ndttaeffleaf tmrjuom d vgojr-

jus reg`teordtgj` prjordk, redlmes jut tj

ds kd`y se`gjr d`f reogj`da eaeke`ts jc tme

Tuettd \murd ds gt ld` egtmer g`fepe`fe`tay jr

tmrjuom tme ojjf jles jc jtmer stdtes (tmussjwg`o fgsljrf g` Vdagnd` rd`is wmgae g`lreds-

g`o tme fgssj`d`le netwee` tme Vdagnd` d`f

Xdigstd`), d`f lj`oedas tme ekerog`o spagt

netwee` tme Mezn-g-Gsadkg (Ouanuffg`) d`f

tme Vdagnd`^dwdapg`fg ljuaf ne cjrlef tj

redssess tme wjrtm jc mjafg`o j` tj wmdt gs

`jt j`ay d wdstg`o dsset nut dasj j`e tmdt e`fs

up stre`otme`g`o tme Dcomd`G`fgd` dssjlgd-

tgj` wmgae crdyg`o Xdigstd`s jw` tges wgtm tme

U`gtef \tdtes.^gomt `jw, _dsmg`otj` gs dfkgttefay

cdr crjk tmgs mdppy bu`lture. Nut sullesscua

G\DC kgagtdry jperdtgj`s`jt fgpajkdly

stgaa mjaf tme nest prjkgse jc sulless cjr njtm

tme relj`lgagdtgj` d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj`

cjr wmglm tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj` yedr`s.

J`ay eeltgve kgagtdry dltgj` ld` lredte `ew

cdlts j` tme orju`f. D`f relj`lgagdtgj` d`f

reogj`da ljjperdtgj` wgaa j`ay ne pjssgnae

^dwdapg`fg ljuaf ne cjrlef tj redssess

tme wjrtm jc mjafg`o j` tj wmdt gs `jt

j`ay d wdstg`o dsset nut dasj j`e tmdt

e`fs up stre`otme`g`o tme Dcomd`G`fgd`

dssjlgdtgj` wmgae crdyg`o Xdigstd`s jw`

tges wgtm tme U`gtef \tdtes.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

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48 LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC

wme` tme jppjsgtgj s strdteoges lmd`oe g`

respj`se tj tmese cdlts. gs prjpjsgtgj` wjuaf

`jt ne true gc tme Vdagnd` aedfersmgp were tj

suffe`ay d`f u`gadterdaay ledse gts g`suroe`ly,

gc tme Dcomd` ojver`ke`t were tj u`expelt-efay dlqugesle tj Xdigstd`g g`terests, jr gc tme

Xdigstd`g kgagtdry were tj dnruptay reag`qugsm

gts fesgre tj lj`trja Idnuas lmjgles. Mjwever,

tmese jutljkes dre daa gkpadusgnae d`f g`ldpd-

nae jc neg`o e`oe`feref tmrjuom fgpajkdly.

Dkergld` fgpajkdts kust tmerecjre ne

pdtge`t. ey kust persgst nut ne lj`te`t

wgtm skdaa odg`s g` tme g`tergk, wmgae pre-

pdrg`o cjr tme kjke`t wme` relj`lgagdtgj`

d`f d reogj`da sjautgj` kgomt neljke truay

vgdnae. (Cgoure 4 adys jut d `jtgj`da rjdf kdpgaaustrdtg`o tmgs prjless.) Vjwdrf tmgs e`f,

_dsmg`otj s pjaglykdiers smjuaf fflrst cjlus

j` repdgrg`o tmegr readtgj`smgp wgtm Xresgfe`t

Idrzdg d`f j` `eojtgdtg`o d ked`g`ocua strd-

teogl pdrt`ersmgp doreeke`t wgtm Idnua. e

cjrker wgaa ne esse`tgda cjr tme sulless jc daa

ljdagtgj` e`fedvjrs g` Dcomd`gstd` furg`o tme

`ext cew yedrs. D`f tme adtter gs elessdry njtm

tj `eutrdagze Vdagnd` d`f Xdigstd`g expeltd-

tgj`s jc U.\. dnd`fj`ke`t, wmglm bustgcy

tmegr lj`tg`ug`o ejrts tj lj`trja Idnua, d`f

tj redssure Idrzdg jc lj`tg`uef U.\. suppjrt,

wmglm wjuaf ekpjwer mgk tj g`vest g` ojjf

ojver`d`le tmrjuomjut Dcomd`gstd` rdtmer

tmd` lj`le`trdtg`o kereay j` survgvg`o.

Neyj`f tmese gkkefgdte, lrgtglda ojdas,

mjwever, U.\. fgpajkdly smjuaf lj`le`-

trdte j` u`ferstd`fg`o wmdt tme Dcomd`s

truay wd`t. D`f tmgs ked`s expd`fg`o tme

lj`versdtgj`tdaig`o, `jt `eojtgdtg`o

neyj`f tme ojver`ke`t g` Idnua tj g`lauf

tme Xdsmtu`s dt adroe, ds weaa ds kg`jrgtges d`

lgvga sjlgety orjups. J`le d pjte`tgda lj`se`

sus gs fgsler`efdssukg`o tmere gs j`eDkergld` fgpajkdts juomt tj meap tme ojver`

ke`t tj recjrk tme lurre`t Dcomd` pjagtgld

systek d`f tj lrdct pjaglges tmdt ld` suppjr

relj`lgagdtgj`, eve` ds tmey e`odoe tme reogj`

stdtes tj suppjrt tmese Dcomd` ojdas. Nut wmd

tme U.\. dfkg`gstrdtgj` smjuaf `jt ne fjg`

`jw gs kdig`o g`fepe`fe`t jvertures tj tm

Vdagnd`, wmglm wjuaf `jt j`ay ne renue

ny tme Tuettd \murds se`gjr kekners nu

dasj, kjre fd`oerjusay, feepe` tme spagt wgtXresgfe`t Idrzdg9 fekjrdagze tme Dcomd` stdt

bust wme` lju`terg`suroe`ly sullesses dr

neljkg`o vgsgnae9 reg`cjrle Xdigstd`s gkpe

tus tj mjaf j` eve` kjre tgomtay tj gts prjx

ges9 d`f rdttae jtmer reogj`da dltjrs, agie G`fg

wmjse ljjperdtgj` gs `elessdry cjr ffl`da sul

lessdaa wmgae kdig`o tme U`gtef \tdtes ajj

kjre fesperdteay crd`tgl tmd` gs wdrrd`tef

Nelduse dttekpts tj cjrle egtmer relj`lgagdtgj

jr d reogj`da sjautgj` tmrjuom fgpajkdly dr`jw agieay tj cdga, tmey ljuaf kdie dlmgevg`

tmese jutljkes eve` mdrfer adter j`.

Fespgte tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj`s lu

re`t g`lag`dtgj`s, tme fgpajkdtgl suroe tmere

cjre smjuaf stgaa tdie selj`f padle tj tme kga

tdry ejrtdt aedst cjr d wmgae aj`oer. Neldus

tme pdg`cua rjdf tj relj`lgagdtgj` ld` n

cju`f j`ay tmrjuom sullesscua kgagtdry dltgj`

tme dfkg`gstrdtgj`s kdg` tdsi juomt tj n

resjauteay suppjrtg`o Xetrdeus d`f mgs fflomtg`ljmjrt sj tmdt tmey ld` sulge`tay dater tm

redagtges j` tme orju`f g` Dcomd`gstd tj kdi

d `eojtgdtef pedle pjssgnae. gs ked`s tmd

Jndkd smjuaf cjroj tme pjagtgldaay ldaluadte

frdwfjw` jc ljkndt trjjps tmgs sukker d`

g`stedf dllept tme dfvgle jc mgs ffleaf ljk

kd`fers tj kdg`tdg` tme adroest pjssgnae lj`

tg`oe`t `elessdry cjr tme ljkg`o ldkpdgo` g

edster` Dcomd`gstd`. Mdrf d`f u`pdadtdnae d

\ullesscua G\DC kgagtdry jperdtgj`s`jt

fgpajkdlystgaa mjaf tme nest prjkgse

jc sulless cjr njtm tme relj`lgagdtgj`

d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj` cjr wmglm tme

Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj` yedr`s.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 44

tmgs ljurse kgomt ne cjr tme presgfe`t, gt daj`e

jers d sjautgj` tmdt prjtelts tme rele`t odg`s

g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f dfvd`les Dkergld` g`ter-

ests jver tme aj`o terk.

Ve Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t fjes `jt tdie

g`stgtutgj`da pjsgtgj`s j` punagl pjagly gssues9

tme vgews represe`tef mere dre tme dutmjrs jw`

d`f fj `jt `elessdrgay reelt tme vgews jc tme

E`fjwke`t, gts std, jr gts trustees.

G`fgdU.\.-G@-OG^JDe`odoeke`t

Grd` JtmersU.\.-DC Lj`tdltOrjupe`odoeke`t

Xmdse Dcomd`gstd`^epdgr U.\.-Idrzdgreadtgj`smgp d`f `eojtgdteU.\.-DC \trdteoglCrdkewjri Doreeke`t

Feveajp g`ter`da lj`se`susj` relj`lgagdtgj` (ojdas) G`trd-Xdsmtu`, kg`jrgtges,

d`f lgvga sjlgety fgslussgj`Dlleaerdte reg`teordtgj`Dgf spagts dkj`o Vdagnd`lj`ceferdtes

G

GG

Gkpaeke`t g`ter`dalj`se`sus j` relj`lgagdtgj`(ked`s) Xjagtglda ^ecjrk, Dk`esty,

FF^

^ecjrk DC Dssgstd`le Feveajp DC Elj` \trdteoyG`gtgdte iey fgslussgj`s OG^JD-Vdagnd` OG^JD-XI

U.\.-XI-OG^JDfgslussgj`

U.\. lj`suatdtgj`wgtm LD^s,^ussgd, I\D

DooressgveG\DCKgagtdryJperdtgj`sLj`tg`ue

U.\.Aedfs^eogj`daFgslussgj`s

XjssgnaeG\DCLeds

ecgre

U@Jversees^eogj`daFgslussgj`s

GGG

^elj`lgagdtgj` netwee`OG^JD-Vdagnd`Jutag`efGkpaeke`tdtgj` jcDk`esty & FF^ neog`s

Xdigstd`U.\.-XIe`odoeke`tg`te`fef tj smdpeXIs ojdas d`f

strdteoy g` DC

U.\.-XI fgslussgj`tj suppjrtOG^JD-Vdagnd`doreeke`t

U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`tj suppjrtOG^JD-Vdagnd`doreeke`t

U@-G@ fgslussgj` U@-G^ fgslussgj`s U@-^eogj`dafgslussgj`s

G\DC Kgagtdry Jperdtgj`s Wgeaf \uccglge`t Jperdtgj`da \ulless g` Dcomd`gstd`

U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`U.\.-G@-OG^JDfgslussgj`

U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`tmrjuom DCLj`tdlt Orjup

G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-G@

fgslussgj`s

G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-G^

fgslussgj`s

G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-I\Dfgslussgj`s

U.\.-OG^JD-XI-G@-G^-LD^s Oudrd`tee ^elj`lgagdtgj` Doreeke`t netwee` OG^JD d`f Vdagnd` u`fer U@ Duspgles/Lj`cere le

IEW2DC, Dcomd`gstd`9 LD^s, Le`trda Dsgd` ^epunagls9 FF^, fgsdrkdke`t, fekjngagzdtgj`,

d`f reg`teordtgj`9 OG^JD, ojver`ke`t jc tme Gsadkgl epunagl jc Dcomd`gstd`9 G@, G`fgd9

G^, Grd`9 G\DC, G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`le Cjrle9 I\D, Ig`ofjk jc \dufg Drdngd9 XI,

Xdigstd`9 U@, U`gtef @dtgj`s9 U.\., U`gtef \tdtes.

D @JVGJ@DA ^JDF KDX CJ^ ^ELJ@LGAGDVGJ@D@F EOGJ@DA E@ODOEKE@V

CGOU^E 4

>844 Ldr`eoge E`fjwk

cjr G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle. Daa

reservef.

8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan

12/12

Vme Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr

G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle gs d prgvdte,

`j`prjfflt jrod`gzdtgj` fefgldtef

tj dfvd`lg`o ljjperdtgj`

netwee` dtgj`s d`f prjkjtg`o

dltgve g`ter`dtgj`da e`odoeke`t

ny tme U`gtef \tdtes. Cju`fef g`

4748, gts wjri gs `j`pdrtgsd` d`f

fefgldtef tj dlmgevg`o prdltglda

resuats. Vme E`fjwke`t

lurre`tay pgj`eerg`o tme fflrst

oajnda tmg`i td`imds jperdtgj`s

g` Lmg`d, tme Kgffae Edst, ussgd,

Eurjpe, d`f tme U`gtef \tdtes.

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le`ters jc wjraf ojver`d`le

d`f tme padles wmjse pjagtgldaevjautgj` d`f g`ter`dtgj`da

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tme `edr-terk pjssgngagtges cjr

g`ter`dtgj`da pedle d`f elj`jkgl

dfvd`le.

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Xedle, Dprga >887.

Fecg`g`o \ulless g` Dcomd`gstd`, Crefergli _. Idod` d`f Igkneray Idod`, Dkergld`

E`terprgse G`stgtute d`f G`stgtute cjr tme \tufy jc _dr, Bd`udry >844.

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Cajur`jy, Vestgkj`y necjre tme \e`dte d`f Mjuse Drkef \ervgles Ljkkgttees,

Kdrlm >844.

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