credi june 2017 weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · the credi main index fell from...

8
THE CREDI MAIN INDEX FELL IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS e property debt financing market remains in contraction, as the CREDI Main index falls from 46.5 to 41.8. is is the largest drop since the autumn of 2015, and is caused by a particularly low Current Situation index. THE CURRENT SITUATION INDEX IS AT A HISTORIC LOW In the June survey, the Current Situation index was merely 38.8. is is the second lowest value in the history of CREDI, and is the result of a deteriorating market sentiment among banks and property companies alike. MARKET AGREES THAT CREDIT MARGINS ARE INCREASING Banks and property companies agree that credit margins have increased in the past three months, and believe that they will increase further in the future. Nearly 90 per cent of the surveyed banks reported higher credit margins. PROPERTY SHARES TRADED AT A DISCOUNT AT THE END OF Q1... During the first quarter of 2017, the market capitalisation of listed property companies fell while asset values increased. Consequently, at the end of the quarter, property shares traded at a discount for the first time since 2013. ...BUT THE STOCK MARKET HAS RECOVERED CONSIDERABLY Since the end of the first quarter, market capitalisation of property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market has increased significantly. is suggests that property shares will trade at a premium at the end of the second quarter. RECORD QUARTER FOR BONDS e volume of outstanding corporate bonds in the listed property sector increased by 33 per cent to SEK 67.3 billion during the first quarter. is means that bonds make up 21 per cent of property companies’ interest-bearing debt, which is its highest share ever. CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins increase In this June issue of CREDI, the Main index has fallen noticeably. This is driven by a weakened market sentiment among property companies and increasing credit margins. At the same time, the first quarter of 2017 had the largest ever increase in corporate bonds, which currently make up 21 per cent of the property sector’s debt. catella real estate debt indicator About CREDI: The Catella Real Estate Debt Indicator, CREDI, is a market sentiment indicator for the Swedish real estate debt financing market. CREDI consists of two parts ; a quarterly current and forward-looking survey of Swedish listed property companies and banks providing real estate financing on the Nordic market; and a set of indices based on publicly available data illustrating the aggregate change in credit conditions such as leverage, duration and cost of debt for the Swedish listed property sector. Subscribe to CREDI at catella.se/CREDI 52.6% Loan-to-value Q1 average 2.5% Interest rate Q1 average 3.2 y Fixed credit term Q1 average 2.8 y Fixed interest term Q1 average Swedish key interest rates, 2014–2017. Per cent Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 Swap 10Y Stibor 3M 0 1 -1 2 3 CREDI Main index 41.8 Previous 46.5 50 100 0 Worse imProved no change Corporates 46.1 51.3 Banks 37.5 41.7

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Page 1: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

THE CREDI MAIN INDEX FELL IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS The property debt financing market remains in contraction, as the CREDI Main index falls from 46.5 to 41.8. This is the largest drop since the autumn of 2015, and is caused by a particularly low Current Situation index.

THE CURRENT SITUATION INDEX IS AT A HISTORIC LOW In the June survey, the Current Situation index was merely 38.8. This is the second lowest value in the history of CREDI, and is the result of a deteriorating market sentiment among banks and property companies alike.

MARKET AGREES THAT CREDIT MARGINS ARE INCREASING Banks and property companies agree that credit margins have increased in the past three months, and believe that they will increase further in the future. Nearly 90 per cent of the surveyed banks reported higher credit margins.

PROPERTY SHARES TRADED AT A DISCOUNT AT THE END OF Q1... During the first quarter of 2017, the market capitalisation of listed property companies fell while asset values increased. Consequently, at the end of the quarter, property shares traded at a discount for the first time since 2013.

...BUT THE STOCK MARKET HAS RECOVERED CONSIDERABLY Since the end of the first quarter, market capitalisation of property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market has increased significantly. This suggests that property shares will trade at a premium at the end of the second quarter.

RECORD QUARTER FOR BONDS The volume of outstanding corporate bonds in the listed property sector increased by 33 per cent to SEK 67.3 billion during the first quarter. This means that bonds make up 21 per cent of property companies’ interest-bearing debt, which is its highest share ever.

CREDI June 2017

Weaker market sentiment as credit margins increaseIn this June issue of CREDI, the Main index has fallen noticeably. This is driven by a weakened market sentiment among property companies and increasing credit margins. At the same time, the first quarter of 2017 had the largest ever increase in corporate bonds, which currently make up 21 per cent of the property sector’s debt.

catella real estate debt indicator

About CREDI: The Catella Real Estate Debt Indicator, CREDI, is a market sentiment indicator for the Swedish real estate debt financing market. CREDI consists of two parts ; a quarterly current and forward-looking survey of Swedish listed property companies and banks providing real estate financing on the Nordic market; and a set of indices based on publicly available data illustrating the aggregate change in credit conditions such as leverage, duration and cost of debt for the Swedish listed property sector. Subscribe to CREDI at catella.se/CREDI

52.6%

Loan-to-value Q1 average

2.5%

Interest rate Q1 average

3.2 y

Fixed credit term Q1 average

2.8 y

Fixed interest term Q1 average

Swedish key interest rates, 2014–2017. Per cent

Q1Q1 Q1 Q2Q1Q3Q3 Q3 Q4Q2Q2 Q2Q4Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

Swap 10Y

Stibor 3M0

1

-1

2

3

CREDI Main index

41.8Previous 46.5

50

1000

Worse imProved

no change

Corporates

46.151.3

Banks

37.541.7

Page 2: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

2 CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017

Main index components

Over the past twelve months, the CREDI Main index has steadily improved with each new survey, going from 41.0 in June 2016 to 46.5 in March 2017. This trend of a rising Main index came to a halt with the June survey, as the Main index fell by 4.7 index points to 41.8, marking the biggest drop in the Main index since the autumn of 2015.

This new development is driven almost entirely by fluctuations in the Current Situation index. While the Expectation index improved slightly from 44.6 to 44.8, the Current Situation index fell 9.5 index points from 48.3 to 38.8. This is the second lowest value for the Current Situation index in the history of CREDI, the lowest being 35.4 in June 2016.

As has been the case throughout the his-tory of CREDI, property companies have exhibited a more positive view of the credit market than the banks, as the banks cater to a wider range of clients. Although property companies and banks reached something of a consensus in 2016, their responses in the March 2017 survey diverged considerably, differing nearly 10 index points. This spread between the Main index values of property companies and banks has remained in the June 2017 survey.

On a positive note, the Expectation index improved slightly to 44.8, up from 44.6 in March. In addition, the Expectation index for property companies reached 50.8, crossing the 50.0 turning point for the first time since June 2016.

Sub-indices

Looking at the results from the June survey, we see that the Credit Margins sub-indices had the most significant impact on the Main index. Nearly 90 per cent of the surveyed banks believe that credit margins have increased in the past three months, as do nearly half of the surveyed property companies. Taken together, this gives us a Current Credit Margins sub-index of 18.4. Respondents are slightly less bearish with regard to expectations for future credit margins, bringing the Expectation Credit Margin sub-index up to 33.0.

With regard to the other sub-indices, credit availability and duration have remained unchanged while the Leverage sub-indices were slightly weakened.

The CREDI SurveyThe CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb. The drop is the biggest since the autumn of 2015, and is driven by a particularly low Current Situation index of 38.8, which is the second lowest in the history of CREDI.

CREDI sub-indices

The CREDI sub-indices present survey data question by question. The bars represent the distribution of actual answers per question, separated into the components Current Situation and Expectation for the coming three months.

LEVERAGE

Current

next 3m

InCrease no Change DeCrease

DURATION

Current

next 3m

InCrease no Change DeCrease

CREDIT MARGINS

Current

next 3m

DeCrease no Change InCrease

CREDIT AVAILABILITY

Current

next 3m

InCrease no Change DeCrease

CREDI is a market sentiment indicator for the Swedish real estate debt financing market. The indicator is based in part on a quarterly current and forward-looking survey of Swed-ish listed property companies, and banks providing real estate financing on the Nordic market. This part of the indicator is called the CREDI survey. The CREDI survey contains four questions about recent changes in credit availability and credit conditions, and four

questions about expectations regarding changes in credit availability and credit conditions in the next three months. The CREDI survey results are computed as separate dif-fusion indices per question, where answers are weighted ac-cording to their direction of change in the variable. As such, the final index figure represents an average of all weighted answers. Weights are applied such that a “no change”-answer equals 50 index points. Consequently, the turning point in

sentiment is 50 and any reading below this level indicates more difficult financing conditions while any reading above indicates less difficult financing conditions. Separate indices are aggregated per respondent category. The Main index and its components are then computed as an unweighted average of these two categories – ensuring that the answers of borrowers and lenders are equally weighted in the Main index.

ABOUT THE CREDI SURVEY

41.8Previous 46.5

CREDI Main index

50

1000

38.8Previous 48.3

Current Situation Expectation

50

1000

44.8Previous 44.6

50

1000

Worse Worse WorseimProved imProved imProved

no changeno change no change

Corporates

46.151.3

Banks

36.141.7

Corporates

41.455.0

Corporates

50.847.5

Banks

37.541.7

Banks

38.941.7

Page 3: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017 3

The CREDI Indices

Following seven consecutive quarters of falling fixed interest terms, the average fixed interest term among listed property companies increased from 2.7 to 2.8 years in the first quarter. The increasing average fixed interest term suggests that property companies do not expect interest rates to decrease further in the near future. This development during the quarter means that the average fixed interest term moves further away from the long term average of 2.6 years.4 Average maturity referring to interest-bearing debt.

The listed property companies’ loan-to-value decreased in the first quarter of 2017, from 53.4 per cent to 52.6 per cent. As such, the average loan-to-value of the listed sector is noticeably below the historical average of 56.8 per cent. With regard to the underlying components, property val-ues increased by 4 per cent, from SEK 618 billion to SEK 641 billion, while interest-bearing debt increased by 2 per cent, from SEK 322 billion to SEK 327 billion. As such, the decrease in loan-to-value is driven by increased property values rather than decreased debt.1 Interest-bearing debt on property, excluding cash, divided by property value.

In the first quarter of 2017, the CREDI Indices suggest that the listed property companies have become more careful with regard to their debt financing, as the average loan-to-value has fallen and fixed interest terms have increased.

In the first quarter of 2017, the average interest rate decreased from 2.54 per cent to 2.47 per cent. This is a continuation of the trend of decreasing interest rates that stretches back to the third quarter of 2013. Approximately one third of the listed property com-panies reduced their interest rate during the quarter, while the interest rate of half the companies remained unchanged during the same period. 2 Average interest rate on outstanding debt portfolio as reported by each company.

The average fixed credit term among listed property companies remained at 3.2 years in the first quarter of 2017, marking the smallest change in the index since 2009. Approximately one third of the surveyed companies extended their fixed credit term during the quarter, while half of the surveyed companies reduced their fixed credit term.3 Average maturity referring to interest-bearing debt.

ABOUT THE CREDI INDICES

CREDI is based in part on a set of indices illustrating the aggregate change in leverage, duration and cost of debt for the Swedish listed property sector. The CREDI Indices are based on publicly available data collected from the financial reports published by Swedish listed property companies. Each data point in the CREDI In-dices represents the aggregate figure for Swedish listed property com-panies. Each company is weighted equally in order to fully reflect the company’s individual financing strat-egy and financing situation. The start date is set as Q1 2000. The purpose of the CREDI Indices is to track trends and changes in real estate financing by aggregating publicly available data.

Listed sector Q1 average fixed credit term3

Years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fixed credit term Mean 2000-2017

3.2 y

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fixed interest term Mean 2000-2017

Listed sector Q1 average fixed interest term4

Years

2.8 y

Average 2000–2017

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average interest rate Mean 2000-2017 SEK 5-year swap rate

SEK 5-year swap rate

2.5%

Listed sector Q1 average interest rate2

%

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Loan to value Mean 2004-2017

52.6%

Listed sector Q1 average loan-to-value1

%

Average 2004–2017

Page 4: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

4 CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35020

06 Q

1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

Source: Catella, annual reports, Nasdaq.

CREDI – Common shares

Following a substantial drop in the fourth quarter of 2016, the market capitalisation of property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market continued to fall during the first quarter of 2017, dropping to SEK 284 bil-lion. At the same time, the listed companies’ EPRA NAV increased to SEK 295 billion. Consequently, the listed property companies traded at a discount at the end of the quarter, marking the end of a three-year long market premium. At the end of the first quarter, the listed sector traded at SEK 11.1 billion below the sectors’ EPRA NAV, corresponding to a discount of 3.8 per cent. However, since then, the stock market has recovered noticeably and the listed companies’ market capitalisa-tion has increased by more than 13 per cent as of 20 June 2017. As a result, the stock market is likely to trade at a premium at the end of the second quarter.

At the end of the first quarter of 2017, listed property companies had continued to drop in their market capitalisation and property shares traded at a discount for the first time since 2013. However, since then the stock market has recovered considerably, indicating a stronger equity market for the second quarter.

Premium or discount – market capitalisation and EPRA NAVSEK billion

Note. Property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market. EPRA NAV includes a 25 per cent deduction for deferred tax, now corresponding to 5.5 per cent.

The implicit yield of property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market has increased slightly from 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 4.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017. The rising implicit yield is the result of the stock market valu-ing the property companies’ net operating income lower than in the previous quarter, as the net operating income of the listed sector increased during the quarter. Nev-ertheless, the year-to-date implicit yield indicates a lower average implicit yield for the second quarter of 2017, due to a reinvig-orated stock market that has recovered the losses from the two preceding quarters as of 20 June 2017.

1) Market values 20/06/2017 and Q1 2017 EPRA NAV.

Note. Property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market. Average interest rate is weighted by using the EPRA NAV to Book value of properties-ratio. EPRA NAV includes a 25 per cent deduction for deferred tax, now corresponding to 5.5 per cent.

Implicit yield and average interest rate among listed property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market%

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Implicit yield and average interest rate listed propery companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market

Implicit yield Average interest rate

Implicit yield

Average interest rate

YTD Implicit yield1)

Market capitalisation as

of 20/06/17

EPRA NAV

Market capitalisation

Negative spread

Positive spread

Page 5: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017 5

CREDI – BondsFollowing a strong fourth quarter in 2016, the first quarter of 2017 saw the largest ever increase in volume for corporate bonds among listed property companies.

Bonds are becoming increasingly more popular among property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market. Hav-ing amounted to less than SEK 2 billion at the end of 2010, the total volume of outstanding corporate bonds reached SEK 67 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2017. Since the turn of the year, the out-standing volume has increased by nearly SEK 17 billion, or 33 per cent, making it the largest proportional quarterly increase in more than four years and the largest ever nominal quarterly increase. At the end of the first quarter of 2017, as much as 20.6 per cent of listed property companies’ interest-bearing debt was made up of cor-porate bonds. This increase was to a great extent a result of Balder issuing EUR 1 billion in the European bond market dur-ing the quarter, accounting for more than half of the increase in volume.

In 2007, the stock market valued the listed property sector at 11.4 times its net operat-ing income, while interest-bearing debt was approximately 10.9 times net operating income. In reaction to the financial crisis, however, market capitalisation would fall to 4.5 times net operating income, while the debt never fell below a multiple of 9.3. This means that banks have increased their lend-ing in tandem with property companies' cash flow development, which has resulted in a lower loan-to-value as property value has increased faster than net operating income. In the first quarter of 2017, interest-bearing debt has remained at 11.9 times net operating income, while market capitalisa-tion decreased from 10.8 to 10.3 times net operating income.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Outstanding bonds

Note. Property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market.

Note. Property companies on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market.

Interest-bearing debt and market capitalisation in relation to NOINOI multiple

Per centSEK billion

Outstanding bonds’ share of interest-bearing debt, %

Outstanding bonds, SEK billion

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Market capitalisation/NOI

Interest-bearing debt/NOI

Page 6: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

6 CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

In an uneventful year for preference shares, there has not been a single new issue in the past twelve months on Nasdaq OMX Nor-dic Main Market. The total issued volume has remained at SEK 13.1 billion since May 2016, for which property companies pay an average dividend of 7.0 per cent on the issued volume

Nevertheless, although the primary market has been constant for more than a year, the secondary market has fluctu-ated noticeable. In early 2016, the average dividend peaked at 7.0 per cent, after a year-long trend of falling preference share prices since early 2015. Following the peak in early 2016, the average dividend would drop to 6.0 per cent in mid-September, only to bounce back to 6.7 per cent at the end of

CREDI – Preference sharesThroughout the first half of 2017, the average dividend of property-related preference shares on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main Market has fallen, mirroring a fall in the 10-year SEK Bond. The market for preference shares has been fairly uneventful, with not a single issue in more than a year.

the year. During 2017, the average dividend peaked at 6.9 per cent at the end of January, but has since fallen. As of 20 June, the aver-age dividend is 6.2 per cent.

The fluctuations of the average yields are strongly linked to long-term interest rates. For the past twelve months in particular, the fluctuations of the average dividend on the secondary market are more or less mirrored by the development of the 10-year SEK Bond, which is currently hovering around 0.4 per cent.

Although there has been a lack of issues of property-related preference shares in the past year, this is not necessarily an indica-tion of a lack of interest in preference shares as a source of capital. Property companies’ net operating income has not increased

considerably since the majority of the issues were made, meaning that we could be experiencing a natural intermission that will remain until the proportion of prefer-ence shares to common shares falls below a certain threshold.

On the other hand, the bond market has risen as an attractive source of capital, which might have impacted the frequency of new issues of preference shares.

Property companies’ preference shares on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Main MarketSEK billion%

Total issued volume

Annual dividend at time of issue , %

10-year SEK Bond

Annual dividend, % of market value

Annual dividend, % total issued volume

Page 7: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

CATELLA REAL ESTATE DEBT INDICATOR | SWEDEN | JUNE 2017 7

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

2008

Q4

2009

Q3

2010

Q2

2011

Q1

2011

Q4

2012

Q3

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Q2

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Q1

2014

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2015

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Q1

2017

Q4

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Q3

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Q2

Yield, o�ce and retail properties, 12 months rollingaverage

Sweden Benchmark Bond - 5 Year

-20

-10

0

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20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

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Q1

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Q4

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Q3

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Q2

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Q1

2015

Q4

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Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

Transaction volume, o�ce and retail properties, rolling 12 months

Bank lending to Non Financial Institutions with commercialproperty as collateral, lagged 2 quarters ahead (y/y, %)

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2015

Q1

2015

Q3

2016

Q1

2016

Q3

2017

Q1

2017

Q3

CREDI Current situation, Property owners

OMX Stockholm 30 Total Return, lagged 1 quarter ahead (y/y,%)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

20

40

60

8090

70

50

30

10

100

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

Q2

2012

Q1

2012

Q4

2013

Q3

2014

Q2

2015

Q1

2015

Q4

2016

Q3

2017

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

CREDI Current situation, Property owners, lagged 4 quarters ahead

Bank lending to Non Financial Institutions withcommercial property as collateral (y/y, %)

CREDI – Catella’s view through the looking glassThe Current Situation index indicates higher average yields, but opportunities are arising in smaller cities.

The market sentiment among property companies worsened significantly in the June survey of CREDI. The Swedish equity market has been a strong leading indicator of the CREDI Current Situation index for property owners over time. The past six months’ strong development on the equity market points to a stabilisation of the Current Situation index for property own-ers at around the 50-mark in the coming quarters (which indicates a neutral market sentiment). The CREDI Current Situation index for property owners is a good lead-ing indicator of Swedish banks’ lending to property companies, which in turn is a very strong leading indicator of the transaction

volume for office and retail properties (the correlation coefficient for quarterly data over ten years is 0.78, where bank lending is two quarters ahead of the transactions volumes).

The listed property companies are cur-rently selling commercial properties in non-priority locations as well as making selective investments in good locations in the major cities and investments in their current portfolios. Taken as a whole, the majority of large property investors – both private and institutional – focus on the same office and retail locations in the large cities, while there are many sellers but few investors in locations with lower priority.

The main reason for the past twelve months’ increase in average yields is higher average yields for retail properties. Buyers and sellers have moved towards

transactions involving shopping centres and Big-Box properties outside the main cities during the past 12–18 months, where yields are generally higher.

Investor demand for prime office and retail properties in the major cities is expected to remain strong, although yield spreads between A, B and C locations in the major cities will likely increase. However, there are good opportunities for investors with good market-knowledge, access to financing and efficient management models to invest in locations outside the major cities without encountering a lot of competition.

The recent CREDI development indi-cates a slowdown in the banks’ lending and a stabilisation in transaction volumes in the coming 9–12 months, as well as an additional 30–50 basis point increase in the average yield for office and retail properties.

* Property yields are based on historical office and retail transactions in Sweden. Yields are either verified or estimated by Catella.

Source: FactSet and Catella

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

205.55.75.96.16.36.56.76.97.17.37.5

2005

Q4

2006

Q3

2007

Q2

2008

Q1

2008

Q4

2009

Q3

2010

Q2

2011

Q1

2011

Q4

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Q3

2013

Q2

2014

Q1

2014

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Q1

2017

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Q3

Yield, o�ce and retail properties, 12 months rollingaverageBank lending to Non Financial Institutions withcommercial property as collateral (y/y, %)

Average property yields* and Swedish Benchmark Bond yieldsYield (%) Interest rate (%)

Average property yields* and GDP growth

Yield (%) GDP growth (y/y, %)

Transaction volume and bank lending with commercial property as collateral Transaction volume (BSEK) Bank lending to NFI (y/y, %)

Average property yields* and bank lending with commercial property as collateral

CREDI Current Situation and bank lending with commercial property as collateralCREDI index Bank lending to NFI (y/y, %)

CREDI Current Situation index for property owners and OMX Stockholm 30CREDI index Total Return (y/y, %)

Contraction

Expansion

Contraction

Expansion

Yield (%) Bank lending to NFI (y/y, %)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

105.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

2007

Q1

2007

Q4

2008

Q3

2009

Q2

2010

Q1

2010

Q4

2011

Q3

2012

Q2

2013

Q1

2013

Q4

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Q3

2015

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Q3

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Q2

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2019

Q4

Yield, o�ce and retail properties, 12 months rollingaverage

GDP growth, lagged 4 quarters ahead (y/y, %)

Page 8: CREDI June 2017 Weaker market sentiment as credit margins ... · The CREDI Main index fell from 46.5 to 41.8 in the June survey of CREDI, marking the end of a one-year-long climb

Martin MalhotraPartnerDirect: +46 8 463 34 05 SMS: +46 70 311 34 05 [email protected]

Max DohertyAnalystDirect: +46 8 463 33 73 SMS: +46 72 207 10 27 [email protected]

Arvid LindqvistHead of ResearchDirect: +46 8 463 33 04 SMS: +46 72 537 17 45 [email protected]

Contacts

Catella is a European financial advisor and asset manager. In Sweden, Catella is a market leader for advisory services in connection with property transactions and property-related services within debt and equity capital markets. We have offices in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö.

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DISCLAIMER

This publication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the pur-chase or sale of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction. The information contained herein has been obtained from public sources and through a quarterly current and forward-looking survey and is believed by Catella Corporate Finance to be reliable but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. Catella Corporate Finance will not update, modify or amend the information in this publication or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Any references to past performance are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Neither Catella Corporate Finance, nor any member of the Catella Group, accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Recipients of this publication outside Sweden should take note of and observe any applicable legal requirements. This publication is subject to copyright protection and may not be reproduced or distributed to any other person for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved. The figures in this publication have been rounded, whereas calculations have been conducted without rounding. Thus, certain tables might appear to be incorrectly aggregated. This disclaimer is governed by Swedish law.

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