credit focus royal bank of scotland group plc ... -...

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BANKING MARCH 31, 2014 RATINGS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Senior unsecured Baa2 Subordinate (P)Ba3 Junior subordinate (P)B1 Pref. Stock B2 Pref. Stock non-cum B2(hyb) Short-term P-2 KEY INDICATORS GBP billion 2013 2012 2011 Total Assets 1,028 1,312 1,507 Tangible Common Equity 52.1 58.5 61.9 Tier 1 Ratio-Basel II 13.1% 12.4% 13.0% Net Income / RWA -1.84% -0.42% -0.58% Cost/Income Ratio 92.7% 79.4% 74.4% Source : Moody’s Financial Metrics Analyst Contacts: LONDON +44.20.7772.5454 Andrea Usai +44.20.7772.1058 Vice President - Senior Credit Officer [email protected] Alessandro Roccati +44.20.7772.1603 Senior Vice President [email protected] Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected] » contacts continued on the last page Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Complex Restructuring Has Strategic Benefits but also Material Execution Risk The ambitious and complex restructuring plan of Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS, Baa2 negative), including various initiatives announced by management since last November, is, once fully delivered, positive for creditors. However, it carries considerable execution risk that, given RBS’s constrained financial flexibility, increases its credit risk in the short to medium term and led us to downgrade the bank’s ratings on 13 March 2014. 1 Summary » If executed in line with management’s expectations, RBS’s multiple restructuring initiatives will bring long-term benefits to its creditors. The initiatives will refocus RBS’s business mix on domestic retail & commercial banking activities, increasing efficiency levels through cost rationalisation and generating more stable and predictable earnings that would help restore the bank’s profitability. The initiatives will also materially improve RBS’s solvency and lower its overall risk profile by further downsizing its investment banking activities and removing poor-quality assets. » Until completed, however, the restructuring carries material execution risk that the bank has limited ability to mitigate. RBS has been in restructuring mode since its GBP45 billion capital injection from the UK government in 2009; however, the scale of its upcoming initiatives is far more comprehensive than the bank has undertaken thus far, in our view. Execution risk includes larger-than-expected losses on planned asset disposals or higher-than-budgeted restructuring costs, operational risks entailed by the bank’s reorganization, and potential erosion of RBS’s core franchise while management attention is focused on the restructuring. With a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 8.6% at end-2013, RBS has the weakest capital position amongst its large domestic and international peers and very limited options to increase its capital buffer to offset unexpected losses. The bank is unable to raise capital externally and its capacity to generate capital internally through earnings retention will be constrained by large restructuring, disposal and credit costs during the next few years. 1 Please see press release “Moody's downgrades RBS's supported long-term ratings to Baa1 with negative outlook, concluding review ”, published on 13 March 2014.

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Page 1: CREDIT FOCUS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc ... - RBS/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/moody/... · RBS’s solvency and lower its overall risk profile by further downsizing

CREDIT FOCUS

BANKING MARCH 31, 2014

RATINGS

Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc

Senior unsecured Baa2 Subordinate (P)Ba3 Junior subordinate (P)B1 Pref. Stock B2 Pref. Stock non-cum B2(hyb) Short-term P-2

KEY INDICATORS

GBP billion 2013 2012 2011 Total Assets 1,028 1,312 1,507 Tangible Common Equity

52.1 58.5 61.9

Tier 1 Ratio-Basel II 13.1% 12.4% 13.0% Net Income / RWA -1.84% -0.42% -0.58% Cost/Income Ratio 92.7% 79.4% 74.4% Source : Moody’s Financial Metrics

Analyst Contacts:

LONDON +44.20.7772.5454

Andrea Usai +44.20.7772.1058 Vice President - Senior Credit Officer [email protected]

Alessandro Roccati +44.20.7772.1603 Senior Vice President [email protected]

Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected]

» contacts continued on the last page

Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Complex Restructuring Has Strategic Benefits but also Material Execution Risk

The ambitious and complex restructuring plan of Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS, Baa2 negative), including various initiatives announced by management since last November, is, once fully delivered, positive for creditors. However, it carries considerable execution risk that, given RBS’s constrained financial flexibility, increases its credit risk in the short to medium term and led us to downgrade the bank’s ratings on 13 March 2014.1

Summary

» If executed in line with management’s expectations, RBS’s multiple restructuring initiatives will bring long-term benefits to its creditors. The initiatives will refocus RBS’s business mix on domestic retail & commercial banking activities, increasing efficiency levels through cost rationalisation and generating more stable and predictable earnings that would help restore the bank’s profitability. The initiatives will also materially improve RBS’s solvency and lower its overall risk profile by further downsizing its investment banking activities and removing poor-quality assets.

» Until completed, however, the restructuring carries material execution risk that the bank has limited ability to mitigate. RBS has been in restructuring mode since its GBP45 billion capital injection from the UK government in 2009; however, the scale of its upcoming initiatives is far more comprehensive than the bank has undertaken thus far, in our view. Execution risk includes larger-than-expected losses on planned asset disposals or higher-than-budgeted restructuring costs, operational risks entailed by the bank’s reorganization, and potential erosion of RBS’s core franchise while management attention is focused on the restructuring. With a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 8.6% at end-2013, RBS has the weakest capital position amongst its large domestic and international peers and very limited options to increase its capital buffer to offset unexpected losses. The bank is unable to raise capital externally and its capacity to generate capital internally through earnings retention will be constrained by large restructuring, disposal and credit costs during the next few years.

1 Please see press release “Moody's downgrades RBS's supported long-term ratings to Baa1 with negative outlook, concluding review”, published on 13 March 2014.

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BANKING

2 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

» The newly announced multi-year restructuring of RBS’s core operations adds complexity to the capital-generating initiatives the bank unveiled last November. The overhaul of RBS’s core operations envisages (1) a thorough reorganisation of its core businesses into three main divisions aligned to its target markets; (2) a rationalisation of support functions, which management intends to centralise; and (3) a very large downsizing of the group’s international footprint and investment banking operations. This large new undertaking adds complexity to RBS’s previously announced decisions to accelerate the disposal of its legacy asset portfolio – renamed RBS Capital Resolution (RCR) – expected to be largely completed by 2016 and fully divest of the group’s US retail and commercial banking operations by end 2016.

» Some of the financial targets management has set are more aggressive than those of other Global Investment Banks that are also restructuring, such as Barclays Bank plc (Barclays: A2 negative, baa2 stable) and Deutsche Bank AG (DB: A2 negative, baa2 negative). If all components of the restructuring come to fruition as planned, RBS will achieve2 (1) a substantial 40% reduction of the group’s cost base of GBP5.3 billion to GBP8 billion; (2) a cost-to-income ratio of 55%, down from the reported 73% at end-2013 and returning the bank to profit; and (3) a return on tangible equity of 9%-11%, which remains just above the cost of equity. RBS has also reiterated its target capital ratios to a CET1 ratio of 11% by end 2015 and over 12% by end 2016, which takes into account the accelerated deleveraging of RCR.

Detailed Considerations

The restructuring initiatives underway at RBS will have long-term benefits to creditors, if executed as planned…

Since last November, as part of its overall recovery programme and in preparation for its future privatisation, RBS’s management has announced a number of restructuring initiatives. These plans, if successfully completed, will materially change the make-up of RBS’s operations, remove poor-performing assets from the bank’s balance sheet, improve its asset quality, lower its overall risk profile, and strengthen its solvency. If the restructuring is successful in transforming RBS into a smaller, more domestically-focused UK commercial and retail bank, it will pave the way for a return to profitability. This assumes that the restructuring is completed as planned, and without major setbacks, by 2016.

The bank’s risk profile will reduce and its geographical spread will narrow RBS’s restructuring plan includes a substantial downsizing of the group’s international and investment banking operations as well as the sale of its US retail and commercial banking operations, which will improve the group’s risk profile but also reduce the geographical diversification of its operations.

The sizable planned reduction in RBS’s capital markets is a positive for the bank’s creditors because the capital markets activities of RBS and other Global Investment Banks are inherently risky and increase volatility of earnings. In addition, they carry material tail risk and interdependencies with other financial institutions. The downsizing of investment banking operations will result in a circa 50% reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) to GBP45 billion, on a full Basel III basis. Management expects to reduce the size of RBS’s investment banking operations to 15% of group RWAs from about 23% (full Basel III basis) at end-2013 by the completion of the plan (see Exhibit 1).

RBS has already downsized its Markets operations considerably over the last few years – exiting equities, commodities and merger & acquisition advisory – but has yet to provide details on further

2 The timeframe indicated by RBS for these financial targets is 2016/2017.

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BANKING

3 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

planned reductions. However, management has indicated that the Markets operations will be merged into a new Corporate & Investment Banking division that mainly supports the group’s corporate banking business. This will likely result in the simplification of RBS’s capital market product lines and the exit from activities that do not directly support the bank’s corporate client business. The group has also announced a 20% reduction in its international banking activities, to GBP40 billion (full Basel III basis).

The disposal of RBS’s US retail and commercial banking operations (Citizens, RBS Citizens NA and Citizens Bank of Pennsylvania, A3 negative/Prime-2, C/a3 negative) will result in the loss of a sizeable portion of the group’s commercial banking earnings as well as reduce the geographical diversification of its operations. Citizens generated a pre-tax profit of £647 million in 2013, contributing 20% of RBS’s core operating profit. The disposal, which management has indicated will be carried out on a phased basis, should commence towards the end of 2014 and be completed by 2016.

EXHIBIT 1

Restructuring Initiatives Will Reduce Risk, but also Narrow Regional Spread of Operations

Breakdown of RBS’s Income by Region

Breakdown of RBS’s RWAs by Activity Type

Source: RBS investors’ presentation

Removal of poor-performing assets from balance sheet will improve asset quality profile As indicated in previous research,3 we expect the disposal of RBS’s legacy asset portfolio, RBS Capital Resolution (RCR), to gradually improve the group’s asset quality, as problem loan balances and concentration risks are reduced over the workout period. RBS’s asset quality has been the weakest amongst its closest domestic and global peers (see Exhibit 2) because of its concentrated exposures to Ireland, UK commercial real estate (CRE) and other risky sectors. The bank’s problem loans over gross loans (Risk Elements in Lending) ratio rose to 9.4% at end-2013.

3 See Credit Focus “Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Internal Bad Bank Wind-Down Will Gradually Improve Its Credit Profile”, published on 5 December 2013.

c.60%

c.40%

c.20%

c.40%

c.60%

c.80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008 2013 2018/2020

Non-UK UK

c.50%

c.80% c.85%

c.50%

c.20% c.15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008 2013 2018/2020

Retail and commercial Wholesale/Markets

Page 4: CREDIT FOCUS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc ... - RBS/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/moody/... · RBS’s solvency and lower its overall risk profile by further downsizing

BANKING

4 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

EXHIBIT 2

RBS Has the Weakest Asset Quality Profile Amongst Its Peers… Problem Loans over Gross Loans for Selected Global Peers

Source: Moody’s Banking Financial Metrics

As the wind-down of the RCR is completed, the group’s overall asset quality profile will eventually converge with that of its core business, which had a problem loan over gross loan ratio of 5.3% at end-2013. Although this ratio is higher than that for some of RBS’s closest domestic peers (see Exhibit 3), it is good by comparison to European banks more generally.

EXHIBIT 3

… but Asset Quality of Core Operations is Good Problem Loans over Gross Loans for RBS’s Core Business versus peers

RBS problem loans defined as Risk Elements in Lending, Barclays problem loans defined as Potential Credit Source: Company reports

Sale of Citizens and wind-down of legacy asset portfolio will also boost solvency The disposal of Citizens discussed above will materially boost RBS’s regulatory capital position owing to the corresponding release of RWAs as well as any profit that results from a sale of the unit at higher than its carrying value. Management has estimated that the disposal of Citizens will increase the group’s capital ratio by around 200-300 basis points, an assumption that we consider to be realistic.4

4 Citizens had total assets of $122 billion, Tangible Common Equity of $13 billion and RWAs of around $93 billion, as at end-2013 (source: Moody’s Banking Financial

Metrics). We estimate that the increase in RBS’s CET1 ratio of 200-300 basis points is achievable with a sale of this subsidiary at a price-to-book value of just over 100%, which we consider realistic for this US regional bank.

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

Standard Chartered

Deutsche Bank

Barclays HSBC Holdings

JP Morgan BNP Paribas Santander Citigroup Lloyds RBS Group

2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 2013

2.6%

5.3%

6.3%

9.4%

3.4%

2.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Lloyds RBS Group Barclays HSBC Bank

% Reported Problem Loans (core) % Reported Problem Loans (total)

Average for Euro-area banks

Page 5: CREDIT FOCUS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc ... - RBS/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/moody/... · RBS’s solvency and lower its overall risk profile by further downsizing

BANKING

5 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

We expect the continued wind-down of RCR assets to result in further material regulatory capital benefits for RBS (see Exhibit 4). A large portion of this high-risk legacy portfolio attracts high capital charges and results in significant deductions from RBS’s CET1 (about £1.7 billion were deducted from RBS’s CET1 capital at end-December 2013 mainly Credit Value Adjustments on a fully loaded Basel III basis). RBS expects its capital ratios to follow a relatively steep positive trajectory in the coming years, as the different components of the overall restructuring plan come to fruition.

EXHIBIT 4

Capital Ratio Will Continue to Improve as RBS’s Restructuring Progresses … CET1 Ratio

(*) Moody’s estimates. (**) RBS estimates Source: RBS investors’ presentation

The larger contributors to the improvement in RBS’s regulatory capital ratios are the wind-down of poor-performing assets in the RCR, the planned divestments of Citizens, Williams & Glynn5 and the significant downsizing of the group’s international banking and investment banking activities. RBS has indicated that these will together generate a £160 billion reduction in pro-forma RWAs, helping bring its total pro-forma RWAs down to around £300 billion at the end of the restructuring circa 2018 from £429 billion on a fully-loaded Basel III basis, at end-2013 (see Exhibit 5).

EXHIBIT 5

… and Regulatory Capital Requirements Will Decrease Materially Forecasted Reduction in Risk-Weighted Assets

Source: RBS investors’ presentation

5 See Issuer Comment “Royal Bank of Scotland’s Forced Sale of Branches Is Credit Native for Bondholders”, published on 3 October 2013.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Dec-14* Dec-15** Dec-16**

429

299

[50][45]

[65] 30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2013 Markets and IB RCR Disposals Loan growth Steady State 2018 to 2020

£bn

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BANKING

6 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

Cost reductions will help restore profitability and improve efficiency once restructuring is completed As part of the restructuring of its core operations, RBS has announced an ambitious 40% reduction in its cost base to around £8 billion by 20176, which we expect will help reverse the heavy annual losses the bank has reported in recent years (see Exhibit 6) and return its internal capital generation capacity to more normalised levels. The targeted decrease in the operating cost base includes £3.1 billion of costs from businesses that management intends to dispose of or sell during the restructuring period. The remaining £2.2 billion in cost savings will come from business improvement (£0.3 billion), rationalisation of IT platforms and operational activities (£1.1 billion), and streamlining of back-office support (£0.8 billion).

Despite the long-term benefits of a lower operating cost base, large restructuring costs (£5.2 billion) will depress RBS’s profits until the plan is completed. The group’s profits will also continue to be weighed down by large credit costs from RCR asset disposals (estimated to be £7.5 billion in total, part of which was already accounted for in H2 2013) and litigation and conduct costs.

EXHIBIT 6

RBS’s Profitability Is the Lowest in its Peer Group… Net Income over Average Risk-Weighted Assets for Selected Global Peers

Source: Moody’s Banking Financial Metrics

A more sustainable cost base and restored profitability will also allow RBS to improve its operational efficiency. The bank’s cost-to-income ratio of 73% for 2013 (93% according to Moody’s calculations which include conduct costs) is the weakest among its peers (see Exhibit 7), and will continue to lag until the restructuring is completed.

6 The timeframe indicated by RBS for these financial targets is 2016/2017.

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Standard Chartered

Deutsche Bank

Barclays HSBC Holdings

JP Morgan BNP Paribas Santander Citigroup Lloyds RBS Group

2010 2011 2012 H1-2013

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BANKING

7 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

EXHIBIT 7

…and its Operational Efficiency Ratio also Lags Peers Cost-to-Income Ratio for Selected Peers

Caixabank, Commerzbank, Intesa, SocGen: data for H1 2013; KBC: data for 2012 Source: Moody’s Banking Financial Metrics, most recent data (year 2013)

Until completed, RBS’s restructuring carries material execution risk; and the bank has limited financial flexibility to mitigate further unexpected losses

We do not expect RBS’s operations to stabilise until its overall restructuring plan is completed in 3-5 years. Until then, the bank’s profitability and capital generation capacity will be severely limited, and it will have very little financial flexibility to absorb unexpected losses.

RBS has been restructuring since 2009, during which it sold a large portion of its insurance business, closed its Markets operations in 26 countries, and exited a number of products such as commodities trading, asset management, equities and mergers & acquisitions advisory as part of the reorganization of its wholesale banking operations in early 2012. During this period RBS also achieved a sizeable 89% reduction of its non-core assets to £29 billion. However, the size and group-wide scope of the present restructuring initiatives extend well beyond what management set out to achieve since 2009.

The risks involved in the execution of RBS’s restructuring are threefold. First, RBS may incur larger-than-expected losses on its planned asset disposals and/or higher restructuring costs than management has accounted for. Second, the large, and multi-pronged restructuring of the bank’s core business units creates considerable scope for operational risks. Third, the restructuring may distract management from proper oversight of the bank’s core day-to-day activities, eroding the bank’s franchise.

Execution risk is a significant concern for RBS during its restructuring because of the bank’s comparatively weak capital position. RBS’s CET1 ratio of 8.6% at end-2013 is the weakest amongst its peers (see Exhibit 8). Moreover, RBS has limited ability to raise capital externally because the group is still 82%-owned by the UK government and UK politicians are clearly on record against further capital injections.

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Banco Santander

HSBC Holdings

Citigroup BNP Paribas* JPMorgan Barclays * Deutsche Bank*

Lloyds RBS Group

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BANKING

8 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

EXHIBIT 8

RBS Has the Weakest Capital Ratios Amongst Peers… CET1 ratios for selected banking groups

Source: Banks’ financial statements

RBS’s ability to generate capital internally is also very limited, with non-recurring items placing a major constraint on group profits over the last few years. As a case in point, management recently announced £2.9 billion in additional provisions for conduct and litigation costs in Q4 2013, causing the bank to miss its end-2013 target capital ratio.

As Exhibit 9 shows, RBS’s total conduct costs and litigation charges of £3.8 billion for 2013 have exceeded core operating profits. The bank continues to be exposed to these risks given the ongoing regulatory reviews and pending high-profile investigations, which also cover other Global Investment Banks.

EXHIBIT 9

… and Conduct-Related Costs Have Absorbed a Material Portion of RBS’s Core Profits RBS: Core operating profits versus conduct charges

Source: RBS Financial data supplement Q4 2013

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

HSBC Holdings Citigroup BNP Paribas Lloyds Deutsche Bank JPMorgan Barclays RBS Group

--

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2012 2013

Operating profits (core) Conduct costs£mn

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BANKING

9 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

Multi-year restructuring of core operations adds complexity to capital-generating initiatives already unveiled

The newly announced restructuring of RBS’s core operations adds complexity to the capital-accretive initiatives that the bank already launched in November.7 If not adequately managed, this new general re-organisation could disrupt the bank’s business, given the materially increased level of operational risk.

RBS intends to consolidate its core operations across three main business lines (see Exhibit 10). It will also centralise the control and support functions for these business lines to increase efficiency (each of the bank’s previous seven business lines had its own management and dedicated control and support functions).

The details of these structural changes have not been disclosed, but effective risk and financial controls will remain paramount to support ongoing operations as well as to manage the execution risks from the comprehensive restructuring programme.

EXHIBIT 10

Core Operations Will Be Streamlined Into Three Centrally Controlled and Supported Business Lines Personal & Business Banking Commercial & Private Banking Corporate and Institutional Banking

35% of RWA 30% of RWA 35% of RWA

50% of Operating Profit 30% of Operating Profit 20% of Operating Profit

UK Mass Retail

UK Affluent

UK Small

Businesses HNW

UK Commercial

UK Mid Corp

UK Large Corp

Int'l Large Corporate FI

Ulster

Markets

IT & Operations

Control & Support Source: RBS investors’ presentation

Some of RBS’s financial targets are more aggressive than other banks

A number of Global Investment Banks have announced restructuring plans in an attempt to improve their profitability and overall return on capital, as greater prudential oversight of their capital markets activities has resulted in increasingly higher capital requirements, which have decreased returns. Differences in the size and scope of these restructuring plans make them difficult to compare, and the associated costs, particularly for staff reductions, can vary materially by jurisdiction.

Exhibit 11 compares the financial targets under the restructuring plans announced by RBS, Barclays and Deutsche Bank, which are in our opinion more directly comparable than those announced by other Global Investment Banks because of similarities in their business mixes and restructuring plans. All three banks expect to increase return on equity (ROE) through RWA reductions, with RBS targeting 9%-11%, Barclays 11% and Deutsche a higher 12%. Both RBS and Barclays target a cost-to-income ratio mid-50%, but Deutsche is again higher, at 65%, reflecting its different business mix.8

RBS intends to achieve a CET1 ratio of 11% by end 2015 and over 12% by end 2016, higher than either Barclays or Deutsche. These targets take into account the accelerated deleveraging of RCR and are achievable, in our view, though material short-term risks could challenge the execution of this ambitious plan.

7 See Credit Focus “Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Internal Bad Bank Wind-Down Will Gradually Improve Its Credit Profile”, published on 5 December 2013. 8 The timeframe indicated by RBS for these financial targets is 2016/2017.

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BANKING

10 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

EXHIBIT 11

Other Large European Banks In Restructuring Have Set Similar Financial Targets to RBS… Financial Targets Related to Restructuring Plans for RBS, Barclays and Deutsche Bank

RBS* Barclays Deutsche Bank

Post-tax adjusted ROE c.9%-11%** > COE (11.5%) >12%

Cost : Income ratio c.55% Mid-50% <65%

Basel III fully loaded CET1 ratio >=12% >=10.5% >10% (*) The timeframe indicated by RBS for these financial targets is 2016/2017. (**) Return on Tangible Common Equity. Source: company presentations

RBS’s operational cost reduction target of 40% is more aggressive than those of its global peers (see Exhibit 12), but this reduces to 17% when £3.1 billion from the planned sizeable business disposals is excluded. However, even the reduced 17% figure would place RBS towards the higher end of the peer group.

EXHIBIT 12

RBS’s Targeted Reduction in Operating Costs Is the Highest Amongst Global Peers…

Source: Company presentations

Finally, the restructuring costs that RBS has budgeted for its restructuring correspond to just 98% of the targeted sustainable cost savings, which is well below the market average of around 120%-160%.

EXHIBIT 13

Costs to Achieve Sustainable Cost Savings Are Elevated… Restructuring costs versus targeted sustainable cost savings

Source: Company presentations

5%8% 9% 10.5%

17%

22%23%

40%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

SocGen BNP BARC BoA DB CS UBS RBS

5.2

4

3.32.7

1.5 1.5

0.6

5.3

4.5

5.4

1.7 2

4.5

0.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

RBS DB UBS BARC BNP CS SocGen

Loca

l cur

renc

y bi

llion

Restructuring Costs Savings

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BANKING

11 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

Moody’s Related Research

Credit Opinions:

» Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc

» Ulster Bank Limited

» Ulster Bank Ireland Limited

» RBS Citizens Financial Group, Inc.

Issuer Comments:

» RBS’ Q4 and Full Year 2013 Results: Large Conduct and Litigation Costs Prompted Further Heavy Losses, February 2014 (165467)

» RBS: Q3 2013 Results Back in the Red, but the Path to Recovery is Clearer, November 2013 (159994)

» Royal Bank of Scotland’s Forced Sale of Branches Is Credit Negative for Bondholders, October 2013 (159063)

» RBS's Q2 2013 Results: Net Profit Remains In Positive Territory, Despite Weaker Core Performance and Further Conduct Costs, August 2013 (157134)

» A Good Bank/Bad Bank Split Would Be Credit Negative for RBS Bondholders, August 2013 (155783)

» RBS’s Q1 2013 Results: Clear From Large Conduct of Business Charges but Affected by Disruption in the Capital Markets Franchise, May 2013 (153589)

» Lloyds and RBS Say They Do Not Need Capital Issuance to Meet New Requirements, a Credit Positive, May 2013 (154462)

» Royal Bank of Scotland’s Forced Sale of Branches Is Credit Native for Bondholders, October 2013 (159063)

Special Comments:

» UK Banks: Implementation of Financial Policy Committee's Recommendations Will Make the Banking System More Resilient, April 2013 (151947)

» Moody’s Approach to Estimating UK Banks’ Credit Losses, October 2009 (120697)

Credit Focuses:

» Royal Bank of Scotland Group: Credit Implications of Government's Divestment Options, June 2013 (154838)

» RBS Group: Regulatory Capital Pressures Could Force Significant Shift in Strategy - Credit-Positive, February 2013 (149616)

» Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Internal Bad Bank wind-Down Will Gradually Improve Its Credit Profile, December 2013 (160237)

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

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BANKING

12 MARCH 31, 2014

CREDIT FOCUS: ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC: COMPLEX RESTRUCTURING HAS STRATEGIC BENEFITS BUT ALSO MATERIAL EXECUTION RISK

» contacts continued from page 1

Analyst Contacts:

NEW YORK +1.212.553.1653

Robert Young +1.212.553.4122 Managing Director - Financial Institutions [email protected]

Report Number: 166188

Author Andrea Usai

Research Writer Michael Porta

Production Specialist Cassina Brooks

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