credit industriel et commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · moody's investors service financial...

12
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 29 April 2019 Update RATINGS Credit Industriel et Commercial Domicile Paris, France Long Term CRR Aa2 Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating - Fgn Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Debt Aa3 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term Deposit Aa3 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Analyst Contacts Guillaume Lucien- Baugas +33.1.5330.3350 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Laurent Le Mouel +33.1.5330.3340 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Claudia Silva +44.20.7772.1714 Associate Analyst [email protected] Alain Laurin +33.1.5330.1059 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Nick Hill +33.1.5330.1029 MD-Banking [email protected] Credit Industriel et Commercial Semiannual update Summary Credit Industriel et Commercial (CIC)'s baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa1 reflects the bank's solid franchise and the sound liquidity management centralized at Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale (formerly known as CM-CM11). CIC's BCA signals (i) its solid retail and corporate banking franchise with predictable earnings, (ii) its adequate solvency, albeit lower than the group, (iii) some single-name concentrations related to its corporate banking business and (iv) the moderate risks stemming from its role as a hub for the capital market activities of the group. Given its strategic and operational integration in Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale, CIC's BCA also reflects Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale's fundamentals in our liquidity analysis. CIC benefits from a very high probability of affiliate support from Groupe Credit Mutuel (GCM), resulting in an adjusted BCA of a3 which is in line with the adjusted BCA of Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM) and our assessment of the standalone creditworthiness of Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale and Groupe Credit Mutuel (GCM). CIC's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of Aa3 with a stable outlook reflect (1) the adjusted BCA of a3; (2) the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, resulting in two notches of uplift from the adjusted BCAs, stemming from GCM’s significant volume of senior debt and junior deposits; and (3) government support uplift of one notch, reflecting a moderate probability of government support in view of GCM’s systemic importance to the domestic economy. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios 3.0% 15.7% 0.5% 37.1% 27.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Credit Industriel et Commercial (BCA: baa1) Median baa1-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Note: scorecard ratios are based on full-year 2017 financials. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Upload: others

Post on 06-Oct-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION29 April 2019

Update

RATINGS

Credit Industriel et CommercialDomicile Paris, France

Long Term CRR Aa2

Type LT Counterparty RiskRating - Fgn Curr

Outlook Not Assigned

Long Term Debt Aa3

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Long Term Deposit Aa3

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Analyst Contacts

Guillaume Lucien-Baugas

+33.1.5330.3350

VP-Senior [email protected]

Laurent Le Mouel +33.1.5330.3340VP-Senior [email protected]

Claudia Silva +44.20.7772.1714Associate [email protected]

Alain Laurin +33.1.5330.1059Associate Managing [email protected]

Nick Hill [email protected]

Credit Industriel et CommercialSemiannual update

SummaryCredit Industriel et Commercial (CIC)'s baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa1 reflectsthe bank's solid franchise and the sound liquidity management centralized at Credit MutuelAlliance Federale (formerly known as CM-CM11). CIC's BCA signals (i) its solid retail andcorporate banking franchise with predictable earnings, (ii) its adequate solvency, albeitlower than the group, (iii) some single-name concentrations related to its corporate bankingbusiness and (iv) the moderate risks stemming from its role as a hub for the capital marketactivities of the group. Given its strategic and operational integration in Credit MutuelAlliance Federale, CIC's BCA also reflects Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale's fundamentals inour liquidity analysis.

CIC benefits from a very high probability of affiliate support from Groupe Credit Mutuel(GCM), resulting in an adjusted BCA of a3 which is in line with the adjusted BCA of BanqueFederative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM) and our assessment of the standalone creditworthinessof Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale and Groupe Credit Mutuel (GCM).

CIC's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of Aa3 with a stable outlookreflect (1) the adjusted BCA of a3; (2) the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure(LGF) analysis, resulting in two notches of uplift from the adjusted BCAs, stemming fromGCM’s significant volume of senior debt and junior deposits; and (3) government supportuplift of one notch, reflecting a moderate probability of government support in view ofGCM’s systemic importance to the domestic economy.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios

3.0% 15.7%

0.5%

37.1% 27.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Credit Industriel et Commercial (BCA: baa1) Median baa1-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Note: scorecard ratios are based on full-year 2017 financials.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Page 2: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit strengths

» Solid domestic retail and corporate banking franchise generate predictable earnings

» CIC has an adequate risk profile, reflecting its focus on domestic retail and corporate lending

» Adequate capitalisation results in solid loss absorption capacity

Credit challenges

» CIC's role as a hub for the group's corporate banking and financial market activities weighs on its risk profile and could entail someearning volatility

» Funding structure and liquidity buffer mitigate reliance on wholesale funding

Rating outlookThe outlook on CIC's Aa3 deposit and senior unsecured ratings is stable as we do not anticipate any significant change in the bank's andGroupe Credit Mutuel's creditworthiness over the outlook horizon given the environment in which the bank operates.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» CIC's deposit and senior unsecured ratings could be upgraded if GCM's liability structure results in lower loss-given-failure for theseliabilities through higher subordination.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» CIC's adjusted BCAs could be downgraded in the case of (1) a material weakening in GCM's underlying profitability, chiefly as aresult of asset-quality deterioration or a structural increase in the cost of funding; (2) a weakening liquidity position or fundingprofile; (3) an unexpected weakening of the banks’ fundamentals prompted by the split between Credit Mutuel Arkea (long-termdeposits Aa3 on review for downgrade) and the rest of GCM; or (4) a material weakening in the operating environment in France.

» CIC's deposit and senior unsecured ratings could be downgraded as a result of (1) a deterioration in the standalone financialstrength of GCM, resulting in a lower adjusted BCA; or (2) a change in GCM's liability structure, resulting in higher loss-given-failure.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 3: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials) [1]6-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 CAGR/Avg.3

Total Assets (EUR million) 290,776 262,974 266,979 251,878 245,679 4.94

Total Assets (USD million) 339,497 315,778 281,597 273,614 297,285 3.94

Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) 14,250 14,475 13,622 12,709 11,750 5.74

Tangible Common Equity (USD million) 16,638 17,382 14,368 13,806 14,218 4.64

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.25

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 14.5 15.6 13.5 12.8 12.6 13.86

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 28.6 30.4 32.5 34.2 38.4 32.85

Net Interest Margin (%) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.85

PPI / Average RWA (%) 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.86

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.55

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 62.7 62.3 61.5 64.2 66.6 63.45

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 40.8 37.1 40.4 40.6 41.7 40.15

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 31.6 27.6 30.2 29.5 30.5 29.95

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 125.4 122.8 123.0 125.5 122.7 123.95

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS. [3] May include rounding differences due to scaleof reported amounts. [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime. [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latestaccounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presented.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

ProfileCIC is a French universal banking group active in retail and private banking, finance and capital markets, specialised businesses,asset management, insurance and private equity. CIC undertakes its operations throughout France, and also conducts internationaloperations for specific services, notably in private banking and financial market activities.

CIC is owned by Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM, Aa3/Aa3 stable, baa1), which in turn is owned by 11 regional federationsof the cooperative Groupe Credit Mutuel. These regional federations -- together with BFCM and CIC -- make up the Crédit MutuelAlliance Fédérale, the largest sub-group within the wider Groupe Credit Mutuel, accounting for around 76 % of its consolidated totalassets at year-end 2017.

Please refer to Moody's report “Groupe Credit Mutuel: Mutuel support guarantee in a fragmented group drives our ratings approach”published on 5 July 2018, for a more comprehensive analysis of Groupe Credit Mutuel's structure and ratings construction.

Detailed credit considerationsSolid domestic retail and corporate banking franchise generate predictable earnings, although CIC's financial marketsactivities entail some volatilityCIC has a sound franchise in the domestic retail segment, with estimated market shares of approximately 6% in both loans anddeposits (i.e. CIC accounts for half of Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale's market shares). CIC also has a strong franchise in the domesticSME and corporate segments. We view this strong domestic position as a key credit strength for the issuer, as it accounts for the bulkof the bank's revenues and provides it with a relatively predictable earnings base.

CIC's profitability is satisfactory, reflecting the bank's focus on low-risk and stable retail and SME lending activities. We howeverconsider that its earnings base is more volatile than for Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale overall, as CIC is the hub for the group's capitalmarket activities1. These activities are now limited in absolute terms and have been significantly scaled down.

In 2018, the bank’s net banking income was broadly stable at €5 billion (+0.2% compared to 2017), supported by higher loan volumes(+10%). However, higher operating expenses (+ 1.7%) affected operating income, which decreased by 2.1%. Ultimately, the bank's netprofit was up 8.1% to €1.4 billion as it benefited from higher capital gains and lower income tax2.

3 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 4: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 3

Despite a negative trend in net interest margins until 2017...Net interest margins (%)

Exhibit 4

… the bank was able to maintain a fair level of net profits thanks todecreasing loan loss provisionsLoan loss provisions / pre-provision income (%)

1.15%

0.84%

1.18%

0.95%

0.87%0.84%

0.75%0.78%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: Moody's Investors Service, bank reports.

14%

30%

22%

17%

13%

10%11%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: Moody's Investors Service, bank reports.

CIC has an adequate risk profile, reflecting its focus on domestic retail and corporate lendingAt CIC, the bulk of the activities relate to domestic retail and corporate lending, which result in a moderate risk profile, as reflected bythe bank's reported impaired loan ratio of 2.6% at end-December 2018. This risk profile is the main driver for the low cost of risk (10basis points of gross loans in 2018 compared to 13 bps in 2017), a smaller level of loan loss provisions than recorded by Credit MutuelAlliance Federale (24 bps and 25 bps in 2018 and 2017 respectively). Specialised consumer credit businesses Cofidis and Targobank3 areheld by BFCM.

At year-end 2018, CIC's residential housing loans accounted for 45% of its gross customer loans. We expect that this portfolio willcontinue to incur low default rates because of (1) the highly supportive unemployment benefits; (2) the cap imposed on debt-to-income gearing; and (3) the limited proportion of variable rate mortgages.

CIC's role as a hub for Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale's capital markets and corporate banking activities raises its standalone riskprofile, resulting in a higher concentration on a limited number of large corporate exposures.

CIC's higher single name concentrations as well as the risks stemming from its trading activities are reflected in the one notch negativeadjustment on the Asset Risk score to baa1 from the macro-adjusted score of a3.

Adequate capital adequacy resulting in a solid loss absorption capacityWe consider that the bank's current capital cushion adequately covers potential credit losses under our central scenario. However,CIC has a higher risk profile on a standalone basis than the rest of the group because of (1) the relatively higher proportion of capitalmarkets activities in the business mix; and (2) its large exposure to the SME sector, which is vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns.

The bank reported a fully-loaded Common Equity Tier (CET1) ratio of 13.0% at year-end 2018 versus 13.7% at year-end 2017. Thedecrease in the CET1 ratio is attributable to risk-weighted assets increasing by 8.5% in 2018, which corresponds to customer loangrowth of 9.6%. CIC's fully-loaded Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) requirement was 8.125%4 for 2018. Starting 1March 2019, CIC will not be subject to any Pillar 2 Requirement. The bank's fully-loaded leverage ratio was 4.1% at year-end 2018. Weconsider that these ratios are adequate, although below the high levels observed at Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale on a consolidatedbasis. The Tangible Common Equity ratio was 14.8% of risk-weighted assets at year-end 2018.

4 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 5: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 5

CIC's TCE capital ratio increased steadily over timeTangible Common Equity / Risk-weighted assets (%)

Exhibit 6

Leverage metrics are also on a broadly improving trendTangible Common Equity / Tangible assets (%)

9.8%

11.5%12.0%

12.6% 12.8%13.5%

15.7%14.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Moody's, bank reports.

4.2%4.4%

4.8% 4.8%5.1% 5.1%

5.5%

5.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Moody's, bank reports.

Funding structure and liquidity buffer mitigate reliance on wholesale fundingOur analysis focuses on the liquidity and funding of Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale, which are managed centrally by BFCM for thewhole group, including CIC. The assigned scores for CIC's funding structure and liquid resources in the bank's scorecard are, therefore,aligned with those of Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale.

Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale's loan-to-deposit ratio was 122% at year-end 2018 (120% at year-end 2017), which is above the loan-to-deposit ratios of large French peers raising the majority of their deposits in France. While material progress was achieved since 2010,mainly through the re-intermediation of off-balance-sheet customers' savings and the introduction of an internal policy requiring loangrowth to be funded by new deposits, we believe that room for further improvement on an organic basis is limited. Credit MutuelAlliance Federale will therefore remain reliant on a material amount of wholesale funding.

In 2018, the total amount of market funding (including covered bonds), represented €138 billion (+4.5% compared to 2017), out ofwhich €88 billion (64%) were medium and long-term resources. Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale’s reliance on market funding, whichis confidence- sensitive, is mitigated by the term structure of its debt which minimizes funding gaps (i.e. shortfall of funding overassets) on all maturity buckets from three months up to five years. In practice, the bank had no funding gap at year-end 2018 on anymaturity bucket based on a static balance sheet5 (assets and liabilities maturing in accordance with their contractual maturities and noadditional asset origination and debt issuance).

Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale had a comfortable liquidity buffer at year-end 2018 of €109 billion, which fully covered the wholesaledebt maturing within 12 months. For 2018, Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale reported an average liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of 131%.The high quality liquid asset (HQLA) portfolio amounted to €79 billion, 73% of which were deposits with the central banks (mainly theEuropean Central Bank).

The assigned Liquidity Resources score of a3 also takes account of the fact that the regulated deposits centralised at Caisse des Depotset Consignations (Aa2 stable) are not liquid assets.

Support and structural considerationsAffiliate supportWe assign an adjusted BCA of a3 to CIC, incorporating one notch of uplift from its BCA of baa1 for affiliate support provided by GCM.

Although CIC does not fall under the legal scope of GCM's solidarity mechanisms, (1) it is fully integrated within Credit Mutuel AllianceFederale both strategically and operationally; and (2) it holds one of the main franchises of the group. We therefore consider that anadverse scenario affecting CIC would likely affect the credit strength of Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale and, by extension, that of GCM.Hence, our ratings incorporate a very high probability of support from Credit Mutuel Alliance Federale and, in turn, from GCM.

5 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 6: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Loss Given Failure analysisGCM and its operating entities in France are subject to the European Union Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), whichwe consider to be an operational resolution regime. We assume that resolution, if any, would occur at the level of GCM once the saidgroup has reached the point of non-viability. If financial difficulties occur at the level of CIC, this would be addressed by GCM throughaffiliate support. Our LGF analysis is, therefore, based on GCM's consolidated liability structure. We also assume residual tangiblecommon equity of 3% and post-failure losses of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in junior wholesale deposits and a 5%run-off in preferred deposits, and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. The proportion ofdeposits considered junior is 26%. These are in line with our standard assumptions.

» Our LGF analysis indicates a very low loss given failure for deposits and senior unsecured debt, leading us to assign a two-notchuplift above the adjusted BCA. This uplift comes from the loss absorption provided by the combination of substantial depositvolume and subordination.

» Our LGF analysis indicates a high loss-given-failure for subordinated debt securities, leading us to assign a negative adjustment ofone notch to the Adjusted BCA. This negative adjustment come from the small volume of debt and limited protection from moresubordinated instruments and residual equity.

Government support considerationsWe expect a moderate probability of government support for both deposits and senior unsecured debt issued by CIC because of GCM’ssystemic importance in France. This results in a one notch government support uplift for CIC’s deposit and senior unsecured ratings toAa3. Subordinated securities do not benefit from government support given their purpose is to absorb losses.

Counterparty Risk Rating (CRR)Moody’s CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honour the uncollateralized portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities(CRR liabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honoured. CRR liabilities typicallyrelate to transactions with unrelated parties. Examples of CRR liabilities include the uncollateralized portion of payables arising fromderivatives transactions and the uncollateralized portion of liabilities under sale and repurchase agreements. CRRs are not applicable tofunding commitments or other obligations associated with covered bonds, letters of credit, guarantees, servicer and trustee obligations,and other similar obligations that arise from a bank performing its essential operating functions.

CIC's CRR is positioned at Aa2/Prime-1.

The CRR for CIC, prior to government support, is three notches higher than the adjusted BCA of a3, based on the level of subordinationto CRR liabilities in the bank's balance sheet, and assuming a nominal volume of such liabilities. The CRR also benefits from one notchof government support, in line with our support assumptions on deposits and senior unsecured debt.

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentCR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails, and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default, and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

CIC’s CR Assessment is positioned at Aa2(cr)/Prime-1(cr).

Prior to government support, the CR Assessment includes three-notch uplift above the adjusted BCA of a3 based on the buffer againstdefault provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments.

The CR Assessment also benefits from one notch of government support, in line with our assumptions on deposits and seniorunsecured debt. This reflects our view that any support provided by governmental authorities to a bank, which benefits seniorunsecured debt or deposits, is very likely to benefit operating activities and obligations reflected by the CR Assessment as well,consistent with our belief that governments are likely to maintain such operations as going concern in order to reduce contagion andpreserve a bank’s critical functions.

6 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 7: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

About Moody's ScorecardOur Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

7 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 8: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 7

Credit Industriel et CommercialMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong + 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

InitialScore

ExpectedTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 3.0% a3 ↓ baa1 Market risk Single name

concentrationCapitalTCE / RWA 15.7% aa3 ← → a1 Risk-weighted

capitalisationProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.5% ba1 ↓ ba1

Combined Solvency Score a3 baa1LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 37.1% ba2 ← → baa2 Term structure

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 27.6% a3 ← → a3

Combined Liquidity Score baa3 baa1Financial Profile baa1

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Aa2Scorecard Calculated BCA range a3-baa2Assigned BCA baa1Affiliate Support notching --Adjusted BCA a3

Balance Sheet in-scope(EUR million)

% in-scope at-failure(EUR million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 177,785 30.3% 211,932 36.1%Deposits 334,776 57.1% 300,629 51.2%

Preferred deposits 247,734 42.2% 235,348 40.1%Junior Deposits 87,042 14.8% 65,281 11.1%

Senior unsecured bank debt 46,002 7.8% 46,002 7.8%Junior senior unsecured bank debt 500 0.1% 500 0.1%Dated subordinated bank debt 10,036 1.7% 10,036 1.7%Equity 17,601 3.0% 17,601 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 586,700 100% 586,700 100%

8 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 9: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Rating 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 3 3 3 3 0 aa3Counterparty Risk Assessment 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 3 3 3 3 0 aa3 (cr)Deposits 23.8% 4.8% 23.8% 12.6% 2 3 2 2 0 a1Senior unsecured bank debt 23.8% 4.8% 12.6% 4.8% 2 1 2 2 0 a1Dated subordinated bank debt 4.7% 3.0% 4.7% 3.0% -1 -1 -1 -1 0 baa1

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Rating 3 0 aa3 1 Aa2 Aa2Counterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 aa3 (cr) 1 Aa2 (cr) --Deposits 2 0 a1 1 Aa3 Aa3Senior unsecured bank debt 2 0 a1 1 Aa3 Aa3Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 baa1 0 -- (P)Baa1[1] Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 8Category Moody's RatingCREDIT INDUSTRIEL ET COMMERCIAL

Outlook StableCounterparty Risk Rating Aa2/P-1Bank Deposits Aa3/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment baa1Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment a3Counterparty Risk Assessment Aa2(cr)/P-1(cr)Senior Unsecured Aa3Subordinate MTN (P)Baa1Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-1Other Short Term (P)P-1

PARENT: BANQUE FEDERATIVE DU CREDIT MUTUEL

Outlook StableCounterparty Risk Rating Aa2/P-1Bank Deposits Aa3/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment a3Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment a3Counterparty Risk Assessment Aa2(cr)/P-1(cr)Senior Unsecured -Fgn Curr (P)Aa3Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Aa3Junior Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Baa1Junior Senior Unsecured MTN -Dom Curr (P)Baa1Subordinate -Dom Curr Baa1Pref. Stock Non-cumulative -Dom Curr Baa3 (hyb)Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-1Other Short Term (P)P-1

Source: Moody's Investors Service

9 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 10: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Endnotes1 In 2018, the net banking income in all business segments was up, except for market activities, which were negatively affected by market volatility

2 In 2017, CIC's net profit was negatively affected by an extraordinary surtax amounting to €79 million relating to the unconstitutionality of the tax ondividends. For more information please refer to our research paper France’s additional tax on large corporates’profits is credit negative for mutualist banks

3 Since the integration of General Electric activities, Targobank has also included leasing and factoring activities.

4 Including 4.5% Pillar 1, 1.75% Pillar 2 Requirement and 1.875% capital conservation buffer and excluding a countercyclical buffer of three basis points.

5 Static funding gaps are based on contractual maturities and incorporate off-balance sheet commitments.

10 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 11: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDITRISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THERELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITYMAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEEMOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’SRATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAYALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSCOMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSWITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDERCONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FORRETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACTYOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW,AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTEDOR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANYPERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSESAND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as wellas other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information ituses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However,MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody’s publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for anyindirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use anysuch information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses ordamages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of aparticular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatorylosses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for theavoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents,representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDITRATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintainpolicies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO andrated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as tothe creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it feesranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1166846

11 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update

Page 12: Credit Industriel et Commercial · 2020. 2. 13. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 Credit Industriel et Commercial (Consolidated Financials)

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

12 29 April 2019 Credit Industriel et Commercial: Semiannual update