credit suisse 10 annual asean conference company presentation · indonesia’s leading and...
TRANSCRIPT
Company Presentation
Credit Suisse 10th Annual ASEAN Conference
Singapore - January 10th, 2019
0
1. Company Overview
2. Business Performance
3. Financial Highlights
4. Growth Strategy & 2019 Priorities
Contents
1
1. Company Overview
2
Chandra Asri Indonesias Leading and Preferred Petrochemical Company
9M2018 Revenues
CAPs main integrated manufacturing complex
9M2017 Revenues
Largest Integrated Petrochemical Producer in Indonesia
Stable and Robust Financials Supported by Strong Credit Strengths
Integration from upstream cracker to downstream polyolefin products Strategically located near key customers
Low production cost base and operating efficiencies Benefit from scale of feedstock sourcing and stable supplier relationships Naphtha cracker utilization rate >90% in average
Long-standing relationships with diverse customer base No single customer accounts for more than 7-8% of consolidated revenue Around +/- 75% of products by revenue were sold to domestic market
Captive distribution network provides significant cost efficiencies Key customers integrated with CAP production facilities via CAPs pipelines Provides significant cost efficiencies to key customers
New projects fueling strategic growth Projects to expand downstream products, new polyethylene plants,
debottlenecking of Polypropylene plant, MTBE/B1 plant and other efficiency improvements
Evaluation of a second petrochemical complex underway
Largest integrated petrochemical producer in Indonesia and operates the countrysonly naphtha cracker, styrene monomer and butadiene plants
Market leadership in highly attractive Indonesia and SE Asia petrochemical market Market share of approximately 52%, 24%, and 29% of the domestic market
(including imports) in olefin, polyethylene, and polypropylene, respectively
Support from Barito Pacific Group and Siam Cement Group
Transformed in 2016 following the 4Q2015 Naphtha Cracker expansion, Production capacity increased by some 43% to Ethylene 860 KTA, Propylene 470 KTA, Py-Gas 400 KTA, and Mixed C4 315 KTAFurther downstream expansion completed in 2018, Butadiene plant up to 137 KTA from 100 KTA and new synthetic rubber plant with capacity of 120 KTA (a joint venture with Michelin)Vital National Object status
Polyolefins39%
Olefins32%
Styrene Monomer18%
Butadiene11%
US$1,798m
Polyolefins46%
Olefins31%
Styrene Monomer16%
Butadiene7%
US$1,962m
3
CAPs products encompass a wide range across the consumer products value-chain, and its leading position and strategic location enhances its competitiveness
Integrated Production of Diverse Products
Ethylene (860)
Propylene (470)
PyrolysisGasoline (400)
Mixed C4 (315)
Polypropylene (480)
Capacity (KT/A) Use (Examples)
Naphtha consumption of 2,450 KT/A at full capacity
Polyethylene (336)
Styrene Monomer
(340)
Naphtha
Co-generation plants
Utilities & facilities
Water facilities(
Jetty facilities
Support facilities
Butadiene (137)
(KT/A)
Merchant market (430)
Capacity
Synthetic Rubber Feedstock (120)
4
CapacityPolytama Others Total('000 tons per year)
Ethylene 860 860Propylene 470 608 1,078LLDPE 200 200 400HDPE 136 250 386Polypropylene 480 45 240 765Ethylene Dichloride 644 370 1,014Vinyl Chloride Monomer 734 130 864Polyvinyl Chloride 507 95 202 804Ethylene Oxide 240 240Ethylene Glycol 220 220Acrylic Acid 140 140Butanol 20 20Ethylhexanol 140 140Py-Gas 400 400Crude C4 315 315Butadiene 137* 137Benzene 125 400 525Para-Xylene 298 540 838Styrene 340 340Styrene Butadiene Rubber 120* 120Total 3,458 450 1,076 240 1,885 595 940 962 9,606
CAP is Indonesias Largest Petrochemical Producer
Capacities of Petrochemical Producers in Indonesia
CAP offers the most diverse product range and is a dominant producer with market share of approximately 52%, 24%, and 29% of the domestic market (including imports) in olefin, polyethylene, and polypropylene, respectively
*) As of June-18 for BD and August-18 for SBR
Source: Nexant data March-17; and Company 5
CAP52%
24%
24%
Import
Pertamina
CAP is the Indonesian Market Leader
Polyolefin Top 10 South East Asia Producers(3)
Largest Petrochemical Company in Indonesia(1)1 Olefin Top 10 South East Asia Producers(3)
CAP is a market leader in Indonesia across all of its products, and a leading player in the region
Olefin Polyethylene
Polypropylene Styrene Monomer
Total Supply: 1.4M tons
Total Supply: 1.6M tons Total Supply: 0.3M tons
Total Supply: 2.6M tons
CAP24%
45%
31%
Import
LCT(2)
CAP29%
53%
3%
15%
Import
Polytama
PertaminaCAP100%
(1) By production excluding fertilizer producers(2) Refers to Lotte Chemical Titan(3) Chandra Asri capacity is inclusive of SCGs equity in Chandra AsriSource: Nexant October 2017
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
Exxo
nMob
il
PTTG
C
Shel
l/QPI
SCG
IRPC
PCG
Cha
ndra
Asr
i
Lotte
Che
mic
alTi
tan
Sum
itom
o
Perta
min
a
Ethylene PropyleneEthylene Capacity Addition Propylene Capacity Addition
('000 tons per year)
7
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
Exxo
nMob
il
SCG
PTTG
C
Lotte
Che
mic
alTi
tan
TPC
Cha
ndra
Asr
i
IRPC
PCG
JG S
umm
it
Che
vron
Phi
llips
HD LL LD PP Polyolefins Capacity Addition
('000 tons per year)
6
6
Strategically Located to Supply Key CustomersCAPs Integrated Petrochemical Complexes
Cilegon
Merak
Jetty CAP PipelineToll Road Road
Puloampel-Serang
Styrene Monomer Plant
Capacity 340 KT/A
Sriwie
DongjinLautan Otsuka
AsahimasPolypet PET
Polyprima PTAARCO PPG
Amoco MitsuiTITAN PE
Mitsubishi KaseiPIPI PS and SBL
Unggul Indah ABProintail
Statomer PVCBuana Sulfindo
Santa Fe
Rhone Poulenc SBLSulfindo Adiusaha
NAOH, CL2
Golden Key ABSMultisidia
Risjad BrasaliEPS, SAN
Trans BakrieCont Carbon CB
IndochlorSintetikajaya
Showa Esterindo Sulfindo Adi. PVC
PolychemRedeco
CabotSiemens
HoechstKS
Dow ChemicalAir Liquide
UAP
Customers with pipeline access
NSI
Sulfindo Adi. EDC, VCM
Indonesia
Cilegon
Integrated ComplexAnyer
NIntegrated Complex Main Plant Capacity (KT/A) Ethylene: 860 Propylene: 470 Py-Gas: 400 Mixed C4: 315 Polyethylene: 336 Polypropylene: 480
Butadiene Plant: 137 KT/A On-Site Power SBR Plant: 120 KT/A
Jakarta
Location proximity and well established pipeline ensures excellent connectivity to key customers. This coupled with reliability of supply lead to premium pricing, with integration of facilities creating significant barriers to entry.
7
Solid Commitment from Shareholders
Thailands largest industrial conglomerate and Asias leading chemicals producer
Invested 30% in CAP in 2011 Second largest olefins and polyolefins producer in South East Asia
Shareholder Structure (as of 31 December 2018)
Siam Cement Group Key benefits of partnership
Production know-how and sharing of best operational practices Raw material procurement savings Sales and marketing collaboration Access to Thai financial institutions Accelerate CAPs expansion plans
41.51% 2.08%30.57%
PrajogoPangestu(1)
MarigoldResources(2)
4.75%14.77%
(1) Owns 77.68% of PT Barito Pacific Tbk(2) Subsidiary of PT Barito Pacific Tbk(3) Total Public sharesholding including Bangkok Bank is 8.40%
Strong backing from long term marquee strategic regional investors committed to the development of the business
Indonesia based conglomerate with business interests in property, timber, plantation, power generation and petrochemicals
Barito Pacific Key benefits of partnership
Barito Pacific is committed to the growth and development of CAP Available land for expansion Financial commitment (e.g. full subscription to 2013 rights offering)
Public(3)
6.32%
8
Strong Management Team with Substantial Industry Experience
(1) Representative of SCG(2) Appointed since September 2018
DJOKO SUYANTOPresident Commissioner
Independent Commissioner
3 years in Industry3 year with CAP
TAN EK KIAVP Commissioner
IndependentCommissioner
45 years in Industry7 years with CAP
HO HON CHEONGCommissioner,
Independent Commissioner
3 years in Industry3 years with CAP
LOEKI SUNDJAJA PUTERA
Commissioner
16 years in Industry16 years with CAP
AGUS SALIM PANGESTU
Commissioner
12 years in Industry12 years with CAP
THAMMASAK SETHAUDOM(1)
Commissioner
27 years in Industry
Converted over 2mn used plastic bags into more than 6km2 of plastic-asphalt road that is 40% more durable.
SME Micro Financing Programme for local entrepeneurs. Support co-op for the union employees.
Immunization and family planning services. Distribution of milk and supplementary food for infants.
A Clear Focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Factors
Health Environment
Socioeconomic Education
10
Awarded scholarships to leading Indonesian universities. Math and Physics teacher training programmes.
2. Business Performance
11
Product Spreads Remain Healthy Through the Cycle(US$/MT)
Note: Forecast prices based on IHS 31 December 2018.
-
250.0
500.0
750.0
1000.0
1250.0
1500.0
Ethylene Polyethylene Naphtha Polypropylene
12
Plant utilization has remained high due to our operational process optimization initiatives
Polyethylene Plant Utilization
Naphtha Cracker Utilization
Strong Track Record of Delivering Operational Excellence and Performance
Polypropylene Plant Utilization Styrene Monomer Plant Utilization Butadiene Plant Utilization
98% 95% 103%
2016 2017 9M 2018
89% 94%
109%
2016 2017 9M 2018
82%
105%
88%
2016 2017 9M 2018
88%
117%
71%
2016 2017 9M 2018
65%
92%99% 103% 100% 97% 99% 102% 100% 94% 95%
1Q20
16
2Q20
16
3Q20
16
4Q20
16
1Q20
17
2Q20
17
3Q20
17
4Q20
17
1Q20
18
2Q20
18
3Q20
18
Ramp-up of new capacity: Q1/2016
90%99% 97%
2016 2017 9M 2018
(1)
(1) Due to planned shutdown during Mar-Jun 2018 (90 days) for tie-in works of 37% capacity expansion to 137KTA and TAM.(2) Due to TAM of both trains.
(2)
13
Polypropylene Plant
Naphtha Cracker
Production and Sales Volumes Polyethylene Plant
Styrene Monomer Plant Butadiene Plant
771855
624
381450
306
2016 2017 9M 2018
Prod Sales
329 320
259
316 327
261
2016 2017 9M 2018
Prod Sales
428451
392427 440
399
2016 2017 9M 2018
Prod Sales
276
356
225276
349
226
2016 2017 9M 2018
Prod Sales
88
117
62
85
118
64
2016 2017 9M 2018
Prod Sales
(KT) (KT)
(KT) (KT) (KT)
14
A new milestone: 20million work hours without LTA Embedded Pause for LIFE ways of working Launched Process Safety Management Programme
2018 Overview
15
Safety
Operations
Financials
Human Capital
Production better than plan Scheduled maintenance activities effectively executed Expansion plans successfully completed (Butadiene and Synthetic Rubber)
Competitive earnings and strong cash flow from operations Retained idAA- rating with Pefindo and BB-/Ba3 with Moodys and Fitch Secured ECA Buyers Credit Financing (JBIC and NEXI-covered loans)
Employee Engagement Scores higher than industry benchmark Talent attraction and retention on track for future growth
Commercial Sustained premium pricing for polymers Satisfactory growth in High Value Added products
3. Financial Highlights
16
Sales VolumeRevenue by Product Segments
Resilient Revenue Driven by Diverse Product Portfolio and Increased Capacity
567 596
706 903
323
316 196
139 6
8 1798
1962
9M 2017 9M 2018
(US$m)
341 306
12351
197
167
763
243261
340 399
264 226
8964
16031537
9M 2017 9M 2018Ethylene Propylene Py-gasMixed C4 Polyethylene PolypropyleneStyrene Monomer Butadiene
(KT)
17
Strong Financials Further Enhanced by Economies of Scale
Source: Company Information
Gross Profit EBITDA (Unaudited)
Net Profit Cash flow from Operations, Capex
97 107
426
345
Q2-18 Q3-18 9M 2017 9M 2018
42 59
251
174
Q2-18 Q3-18 9M 2017 9M 2018
104 105
430
337
Q2-18 Q3-18 9M 2017 9M 2018
104
43
295
165
7150
126
209
Q2-18 Q3-18 9M 2017 9M 2018
CFO Capex
Adjusted EBITDA margin
24%
Net Profit Margin
14% 9%
18%
7%
16% 16%
9%
(in US$m)
18
Robust Balance Sheet Supported byFinancial Profile Strengthening
(1) Adjusted EBITDA calculated on LTM basis(2) Debt to Capitalisation calculated as total debt divided by (total debt + equity). Debt to Adjusted EBITDA calculated as Total Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA.
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA calculated as Net Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA.
Cash Balance Debt and Net Debt
Adjusted EBITDA / Finance Costs (1) Leverage Ratios (2)
633
356
590
2017 30-Sep-17 30-Sep-18
Debt Net Debt(US$m)
* Net Cash position of US$277m
* Net Cash position of US$210m
* Net Cash position of US$98m
843
633 688
2017 30-Sep-17 30-Sep-18
(US$m)
31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017
15.3x16.6x
8.9x
FY 2017 9M 2017 9M 2018
(x)
Min2.5x
27%18%
25%
1.1x 0.6x 1.3x
-0.4x-0.5x
-0.2x
FY 2017 9M 2017 9M 2018Debt to Capitalisation Debt to Adjusted EBITDANet debt to Adjusted EBITDA
Max50%
FCCRFinancial Covenant
19
(x and %)
4. Growth Strategy & 2019 Priorities
20
Growth Strategic Themes
Launch Sustainability Framework and Increase Energy
Efficiency
Implement Digital Transformation & Industry 4.0
to Maintain Operational Excellence
Break New Ground with CAP2: A World-Scale
Integrated Petrochemical Complex
Expand Polymer Customer Base to Absorb Capacity
Increase
Present New Grades with Focus on High-Value Added (HVA)
Products
Optimise Value Chain Integration through
Expansion and Debottlenecking of CAP1
21
157510
233
3,301 3,458
3,968 4,201 4,201
2016 2018 2019 2020 2020
2016 2020 CAGR: 6.2%
SSBR: 120KTBD: 37KT
C2: 40KTC3: 20KT
MTBE: 130KTB1: 43KT
SSBR operation, BD
expansionC2, C3, MTBE and Butene-1
CAP 1 Strategic Growth via Expansion and Debottlenecking
PE: 400KTPP: 110KT
PE expansion& PP Debotlenecking
After doubling the size of production capacity over historical 10-yrs, expected further growth in the next 5-yrs will come from several expansion & debottlenecking initiatives.
Note: SSBR Solution Styrene Butadiene RubberBD Expansion - Butadiene Plant ExpansionPE - Polyethylene
PP PolypropyleneMTBE - Methyl tert-butyl ether C2 / C3 Refers to furnace revamp
COMPLETED
22
In KTA
Chart1
201620162016
201820182018
201920192019
202020202020
202020202020
Column1
Column2
Column3
3301
3301
3301
157
3458
3458
510
3968
3968
233
4201
4201
4201
Sheet1
CategoryColumn1Column2Column3
20163,3013,301
20183,3011573,458157
20193,4585103,968480
20203,9682334,201233
20204,2014,201
Furnace Revamp
Increase BD capacity by 100 KT/A to 137 KT/A
Rationale: Add value to incremental C4 post 2015
cracker expansion Avoid opportunity loss of exporting
excess C4 Enjoy BD domestic premium and fulfill
SRIs BD requirement Status: Completed and restarted on 3 June
2018 Investment: US$ 42 million
Butadiene Plant Expansion
Projects are On Stream and On Track
Increase cracker capacity by modifying heat internals to increase ethylene capacity from 860 KT/A to 900 KT/A and propylene capacity from 470 KT/A to 490 KT/A
Proposed start-up: 1Q2020 Est. Investment: US$ 48 million
New facility of total 400 KT/A to produce LLDPE, HDPE and Metallocene LLDPE
Rationale: Further vertical integration; Protect and grow leading polymer market
position in Indonesia Proposed start-up: 4Q2019 Est. Investment: US$ 380 million
New Polyethylene Plant
Increase Production Capacity
Additional Expansion and Product Offering Initiatives
Production of 127 KT/A and 43 KT/A of MTBE and Butene-1, respectively
Rationale: Secure supply of MTBE and Butene-1
which are used in the production of Polyethylene
Excess demand for MTBE in Indonesia Proposed start-up: 3Q2020 Est. Investment: US$ 130.5 million
MTBE and Butene 1 PlantPP Debottlenecking
Debottleneck PP plant to increase capacity by 110 KT/A from 480 KT/A to 590 KT/A
Rationale: Demand and supply gap for PP expected
to widen in Indonesia Opportunity to increase PP sales
Proposed start-up: 4Q2019 Est. Investment: US$ 39.5 million
Expand Product Offering by Moving Downstream
Synthetic Rubber Project (through SRI JV)
Part of downstream integration strategy and efforts to produce higher-value added products
Partnership with leading global player (55% Michelin and 45% CAP)
Production capacity: 120 KT/A Status: Mechanical completion 24 May
2018 and started up 31 Aug 2018 Investment: US$435 million
23
Progress 41%
Progress 42%
Progress 92%
Progress 85%
On Stream
On Stream
2019 Key Priorities
New 400 KTA Polyethylene Plant to achieve on-spec product by Q4 2019
23% increase in Polypropylene capacity to 590KTA with completion of expansion programme by Q4 2019
Complete Furnace Heater Revamping to increase ethylene and propylene production capacity by end 2019
Successfully execute 55-day Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) in Q3 2019
Maintain overall production volumes around 2018 levels
24
Capital Expenditure Plan to Pursue Value-Accretive Growth
Capex Plan 2018-2020
25
156
78
6
10
16
10
112
177
37
1654
19
73136
256
403
465
312
2018LE 2019Budget 2020F
BD expansion PE expansion PP expansionFurnace Revamp Others/TAM MTBE & Butene-1New cracker initial spend
US$ mn
25
Breaking New Ground with CAP 2:A World-Scale Integrated Petrochemical Complex
26
The Petrochemical Industry is in a Long Term Cyclical Phase
Note: Forecast price is based on Brent Crude at US$55 (2017), US$65 (2018), US$70 (2019 2025) per barrel (constant 2016 dollars)Source: Nexant
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Ethylene Delta Over Net Raw Material Cost Global Operating Rates with Unsanctioned CapacityGlobal Operating Rates with no Unsanctioned Capacity
Average 2013-2016: US$567
Average 2020-2023: US$424
Ethylene Spreads Over Naphtha
Petrochemical industry profitability to continue on path of sustainable recovery post 2012 as a result of improving demand and lower capacity addition
Gap over naphtha (US$/t) % Utilisation
Average 2017-2019: US$568
Average 2009-2012: US$306
27
28.6 28.529.3 29.0
32.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Attractive Indonesian Macroeconomic Growth and Consumption Trends
(1) GDP, constant prices; IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2017(2) SEA excludes Indonesia(3) Polyolefins include HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE and PP(4) FSU means Former Soviet Union, CE means Central Europe, WE means Western EuropeSource: Nexant Industry Report, IMF, BKPM
Polyolefins Consumption per Capita(2)(3)(4)GDP Growth CAGR (2017 2020F)(1)
Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia (2013 2017)(US$bn)
Product Substitution Consumer Spending
Quality of LifeRising Population
Domestic trends
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Proj
ecte
d C
AGR
201
7-20
23F
Consumption per capita (2016) kilogram per capita
Bubble size indicates demand in 2016, million tons
9
46
1924
4
8
5
32
28
4FSU
SEA
Indonesia
India
Brazil China
JapanCE/WE
US
Urbanization Manufacturing
7.7%6.8% 6.3% 6.2%
5.4%4.8%
3.3%2.6%
2.0% 1.6% 1.6%
28
Chart1
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Series 1
28.6
28.5
29.3
29
32
Sheet1
Series 1Column1Column2
201328.6
201428.5
201529.3
201629.0
201732.0
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
Strong Demand Growth for Petrochemical Products in Indonesia
2.4%
1.6%
3.6%
3.4%
17.7%
10.5%
4.7%
4.4%
BD
SM
PP
PE
Indonesia Global
Petrochemical products are fundamental to the production of a wide variety of consumer and industrial products, such as packaging, containers, automotive and construction materials
Packaging Films and sheets Fibers and filaments Toys Automotive parts
Polyethylene Plastic films Containers Bottles Plastic bags
Drinks cups Food containers Car interiors Helmet padding
Vehicle tires Synthetic rubber Gloves and footwear
End MarketsTotal Demand Growth (1) (2017F 2023F CAGR)
Polypropylene
Styrene Monomer
Butadiene
(1) By volumeSource: Nexant
29
1,458 1,828
2,217
480 590 590
450225 285
805
(753)(953)
(372)2016 2020 2024
Polyethylene Polypropylene
Ethylene Propylene Butadiene
7861,186
2,086
1,341 1,829
2,717
900
1,100
1,000
(481)(929)
283
2016 2020 2024
803 1,041
2,042
470 492 492
602 455 455
1,122
122 (94)
174
2016 2020 2024
860 900
3,000
925 947
2,216
100137
427
3 crackers needed to catch up with domestic demand
In KTA
705875
1,845
CAP is Well-Positioned to Benefit from theDemand-Supply Gap
30
Chart1
20162016201620162016
480225-819.6831308945
-886.477520999
20202020202020202020
590285-759.5190368637
-565.7661626238
20242024202420242024
590450805
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
1457.88874079
-752.88874079
1828.2719111036
-953.2719111036
2217.013288384
-372.013288384
Downstream configuration
Option 1 HD LD
CAP 1CAP 2TOTAL
HD136450586
LL600-600
LD-300300
TOTAL7367501.486
Option 2 HD LL
CAP 1CAP 2TOTAL
HD336450786
LL400450850
TOTAL7369001.636
Tita Wardhani - BDD:UCC#1 and UCC#2
Tita Wardhani - BDD:SDK & UCC#1
LDPE-LLDPE balance
LDPE - INDONESIA
YearDemandCapacityImportBalance
201622022-198
202026426-237.6
202431430031.417
LLDPE - INDONESIA
YearDemandCapacityImportBalance
201670340070-233
202087160087-184
202410571,200106249
LDPE - SEA
YearDemandCapacityBalance
201610631341278
20201258134183
202414461641195
LLDPE - SEA
YearDemandCapacityBalance
2016235438851531
2020294650102064
2024356056102050
250
250
950
1200
LDPE-LLDPE balance
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LDPE - SEA
HD-LD-PP balance
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LLDPE - SEA
Sheet1
Demand
Capacity
Import
Balance
LDPE - INDONESIA
PE-PP
Demand
Capacity
Import
Balance
LLDPE - INDONESIA
HD-LD
HDPE201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP134,890319,200586,000
Competitor136,875237,500237,500
O/RCAP99%95%100%
Competitor66%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP136336586
Competitor207250250
10%Import63.0576.6692
Total406663928
Demand630767915
Balance(224)(104)12
LDPE201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP300,000
Competitor
O/RCAP98%95%100%
Competitor66%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP00300
Competitor000
Import222631
Total2226331
Demand220264314
Balance(198)(238)17
PP201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP428,000532,000959,500
Competitor191,800270,750859,750
O/RCAP89%95%95%
Competitor85%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP4805901040
Competitor225285805
Import146183222
Total85110582067
Demand1,4581,8282,217
Balance(607)(770)(150)
Tita Wardhani - MBD:Titan change from 500 to 400
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
HDPE
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
LDPE
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
PP
Demand
Capacity
Balance
HDPE
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LDPE
Demand
Capacity
Balance
PP
HD
YearCAPNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016136135Actual Data (CAP Sales)250137Actual Data (CAP Sales)
2020336319UCC1 200KTA -> produce HD250238No cap addition
2024586557Add 450KTA, UCC1 200KTA-> produce LL250238No cap addition
LL
YearCAPNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016200195Actual Data (CAP Sales)200161Actual Data (CAP Sales)
2020400380New PE 400KTA, UCC1 200KTA-> produce HD200190
2024600570UCC1 200 KTA -> produce LL350333Add new line 150KTA
LD
YearCAPNotes
Capacity95%
201600
202000
2024300285Add 300 KTA
PP
YearCAPNotesPolytamaNotesPertaminaNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016480428Actual Data (CAP Sales)180150Actual Data (CAP Sales)4542Actual Data (CAP Sales)00
2020560532Increase prod Rate240228Add 60 KTA454300No cap addition
20241010960New PP line (+450 KTA)240228165157Add 120KTA500475Add 500KTA
PE201620202024
Demand HD630767915
Demand LD220264314
Demand LL7038711057
Demand Total155319022286
Capacity HD386586836
CAP1136336136
CAP2450
Other dom. producer250250250
10%import
Capacity LD00300
CAP1
CAP2300
Other dom. producer
import
Capacity LL400600950
CAP1200400600
CAP2
Other dom. producer200200350
import
Capacity Total78611862086
Balance HD-244-181-79
Balance LD-220-264-14
Balance LL-303-271-107
Balance Total-767-716-200
PP
Demand Total145818282217
CAP1480590590
CAP2450
Other dom. producer225285805
import
Capacity Total7058751845
Balance Total-753-953-372
PEPP
DemandCAP1CAP2Other producerBalanceDemandCAP1CAP2Other producerBalance
20161,553(767)-17.23071291491,458-75367
336450(750)480225-820
(733)-886
20201,902(716)1,828-953-194
736450(544)-171.7422827694590285-760
(372)-566
20242,286(200)2,217-372
736750600590450805
Capacity
Demand
Balance
Capacity
Demand
Balance
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
Chart1
20162016201620162016
336450-750.0351263006
-732.8044133857
20202020202020202020
736450-543.8314177015
-372.0891349321
20242024202420242024
736750600
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
1553.2658392154
-767.2658392155
1901.5737004709
-715.5737004709
2286.3468521628
-200.3468521627
Downstream configuration
Option 1 HD LD
CAP 1CAP 2TOTAL
HD136450586
LL600-600
LD-300300
TOTAL7367501.486
Option 2 HD LL
CAP 1CAP 2TOTAL
HD336450786
LL400450850
TOTAL7369001.636
Tita Wardhani - BDD:UCC#1 and UCC#2
Tita Wardhani - BDD:SDK & UCC#1
LDPE-LLDPE balance
LDPE - INDONESIA
YearDemandCapacityImportBalance
201622022-198
202026426-237.6
202431430031.417
LLDPE - INDONESIA
YearDemandCapacityImportBalance
201670340070-233
202087160087-184
202410571,200106249
LDPE - SEA
YearDemandCapacityBalance
201610631341278
20201258134183
202414461641195
LLDPE - SEA
YearDemandCapacityBalance
2016235438851531
2020294650102064
2024356056102050
250
250
950
1200
LDPE-LLDPE balance
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LDPE - SEA
HD-LD-PP balance
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LLDPE - SEA
Sheet1
Demand
Capacity
Import
Balance
LDPE - INDONESIA
PE-PP
Demand
Capacity
Import
Balance
LLDPE - INDONESIA
HD-LD
HDPE201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP134,890319,200586,000
Competitor136,875237,500237,500
O/RCAP99%95%100%
Competitor66%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP136336586
Competitor207250250
10%Import63.0576.6692
Total406663928
Demand630767915
Balance(224)(104)12
LDPE201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP300,000
Competitor
O/RCAP98%95%100%
Competitor66%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP00300
Competitor000
Import222631
Total2226331
Demand220264314
Balance(198)(238)17
PP201620202024
Supply (MTA)CAP428,000532,000959,500
Competitor191,800270,750859,750
O/RCAP89%95%95%
Competitor85%95%95%
Capacity (KTA)CAP4805901040
Competitor225285805
Import146183222
Total85110582067
Demand1,4581,8282,217
Balance(607)(770)(150)
Tita Wardhani - MBD:Titan change from 500 to 400
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
HDPE
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
LDPE
CAP
Competitor
Import
Demand
Balance
PP
Demand
Capacity
Balance
HDPE
Demand
Capacity
Balance
LDPE
Demand
Capacity
Balance
PP
HD
YearCAPNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016136135Actual Data (CAP Sales)250137Actual Data (CAP Sales)
2020336319UCC1 200KTA -> produce HD250238No cap addition
2024586557Add 450KTA, UCC1 200KTA-> produce LL250238No cap addition
LL
YearCAPNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016200195Actual Data (CAP Sales)200161Actual Data (CAP Sales)
2020400380New PE 400KTA, UCC1 200KTA-> produce HD200190
2024600570UCC1 200 KTA -> produce LL350333Add new line 150KTA
LD
YearCAPNotes
Capacity95%
201600
202000
2024300285Add 300 KTA
PP
YearCAPNotesPolytamaNotesPertaminaNotesLotte TitanNotes
Capacity95%Capacity95%Capacity95%Capacity95%
2016480428Actual Data (CAP Sales)180150Actual Data (CAP Sales)4542Actual Data (CAP Sales)00
2020560532Increase prod Rate240228Add 60 KTA454300No cap addition
20241010960New PP line (+450 KTA)240228165157Add 120KTA500475Add 500KTA
PE201620202024
Demand HD630767915
Demand LD220264314
Demand LL7038711057
Demand Total155319022286
Capacity HD386586836
CAP1136336136
CAP2450
Other dom. producer250250250
10%import
Capacity LD00300
CAP1
CAP2300
Other dom. producer
import
Capacity LL400600950
CAP1200400600
CAP2
Other dom. producer200200350
import
Capacity Total78611862086
Balance HD-244-181-79
Balance LD-220-264-14
Balance LL-303-271-107
Balance Total-767-716-200
PP
Demand Total145818282217
CAP1480590590
CAP2450
Other dom. producer225285805
import
Capacity Total7058751845
Balance Total-753-953-372
PEPP
DemandCAP1CAP2Other producerBalanceDemandCAP1CAP2Other producerBalance
20161,553(767)-17.23071291491,458-75367
336450(750)480225-820
(733)-886
20201,902(716)1,828-953-194
736450(544)-171.7422827694590285-760
(372)-566
20242,286(200)2,217-372
736750600590450805
Capacity
Demand
Balance
Capacity
Demand
Balance
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
Chart1
20162016201620162016
100031.3333333333
25.6666666667
20202020202020202020
137093.3333333333
166.6666666667
20242024202420242024
137160130
Demand
CAP1
CAP2
Other producer
Balance
63
37
117
20
187
240
DOM
INTEGRATED UNITS IN INDONESIACONSACTUAL CASE C2 CUSTOMERSTIMELINE OF SEA NEW CAPACITIES
NAMEPLATE CAPACITIES & OR201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252015CAPIMPORT20182019202020212022202320242025
CHANDRA ASRI PETROCHEMICALC26008608609009009009009001,9001,9001,900ASC25183CHANDRA ASRIINDONESIAHDPEHDPE I- 0
C33204704704924924924924921,0381,0381,038SAU1569INDONESIALDPELDPE II300
C4220315315330330330330330696696696POLY7115INDONESIALLDPELLDPE I400
PG280400400419419419419419884884884TITAN HD5180INDONESIACRACKERCRACKER II401,000
HD1851361361361361361361365865865861.020TITAN LL3120INDONESIAHDPEHDPE II450
LL2002002002002006006006006006006000.930CAP HD9710INDONESIALLDPELLDPE II
PP4804805205485605605605601,0101,0101,0101.027CAP LL12012INDONESIAPPPP II2812450
SM3403403403403403403403403403403400.289SMI5318INDONESIABDPBI37
BD1001001001371371371371372672672672.5002016CAPIMPORTINDONESIARUBBERSRI120
SRI1201201201201201201201200.750ASC94222INDONESIABDCAP CRACKER BD130
BTX- 000005005005000.400SAU5084INDONESIABTXCAP CRACKER BTX500
CRACKER57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%POLY4279INDONESIABUT-1BUTENE-143
HD51%99%103%70%71%90%90%90%90%90%90%TITAN HD49154INDONESIAMTBEMTBE127
LL86%97%108%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%TITAN LL32103TITANINDONESIACRACKERCRACKER (M) I92
PP97%89%97%79%81%82%84%76%78%84%85%CAP HD132INDONESIACRACKERCRACKER I1,000
SMI69%81%97%82%87%90%90%90%90%90%90%CAP LL209INDONESIAHDPEHDPE II
PBI47%89%105%67%87%95%95%94%67%75%95%SMI764INDONESIALLDPELLDPE II150
SRI50%80%90%90%90%90%90%90%DEMAND20152016INDONESIAPPPP I500
LOTTE TITAN INDONESIAC2- 0- 0- 0- 0- 01,0001,0001,000EDC292450INDONESIABDBD I130
C3- 0547547547EO121121RAPIDSOUTHEAST ASIACRACKERCRACKER I1,200
C4- 0366366366HDPE291335SOUTHEAST ASIALLDPELLDPE I350
PG- 0465465465LLDPE255344SOUTHEAST ASIAEOEO I740
HD2502502502502502502502502502502501.020SM7080SOUTHEAST ASIABDBD I200
LL2002002002002002002002003503503500.930SOUTHEAST ASIAPPPP I900
PP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 05005005001.027ACTUAL CASE SM CUSTOMERSSOUTHEAST ASIAMTBEMTBE550
BD- 0000- 01301301302.5002015CAPIMPORTSOUTHEAST ASIABUT-1BUTENE-1110
CRACKER95%95%95%95%TRINSEO802PTTSOUTHEAST ASIALLDPELLDPE II400
HD72%79%68%70%71%80%80%85%86%87%89%ARBE10SOUTHEAST ASIACRACKERCRACKER60
LL66%73%34%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%BASF23TPESOUTHEAST ASIALDPELDPE26
PP0%0%0%0%0%0%0%95%95%95%95%KOFUKU12LONG SONSOUTHEAST ASIACRACKERCRACKER I1,050
BD0%0%0%0%0%0%0%95%95%95%95%GT71SOUTHEAST ASIAEDCEDC I330
PERTAMINARFCC BALONGAN270270270270270270270270270270270JUSTUS10SOUTHEAST ASIAHDPEHDPE I450
RFCC CILACAP140140140140140140140140140140140SHCP80SOUTHEAST ASIALLDPELLDPE I550
RFCC PLAJU4545454545454545454545ROHM & HAAS30PERTAMINAINDONESIARFCCRFCC120
RFCC TUBAN200- 0- 0- 0120120120120120ETERNAL4INDONESIAPPPP120
PP BALONGAN4545454545454545454545ICK80TPESOUTHEAST ASIARFCCRFCC125
POLYTAMA180180180380380380380380380380380SUMITOMO2
PP TUBAN- 0- 0- 0120120120120120HOPAX1
RFCC BALONGAN67%86%86%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%ESA2
RFCC CILACAP67%86%86%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%2016CAPIMPORT
RFCC PLAJU67%86%86%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%TRINSEO87
RFCC TUBAN90%90%90%90%90%ARBE
PP BALONGAN58%79%58%70%80%90%90%90%90%90%90%BASF280
POLYTAMA58%79%58%70%80%90%90%90%90%90%90%KOFUKU17
PP TUBAN0%0%0%0%0%0%90%90%90%90%90%GT10
NON-INTEGRATED UNITS IN INDONESIAJUSTUS12
C2 DERIVATIVESVCM: ASC6401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1400.300SHCP55
VCM: SAU4204204204204204204204204204204200.300ROHM & HAAS4
EO: POLY2202202352352352352352352352352350.840ETERNAL3
VCM: ASC108%92%87%92%92%90%90%90%90%90%90%ICK10
VCM: SAU67%106%87%92%92%90%90%90%90%90%90%SUMITOMO3
EO: POLY66%65%51%52%51%80%90%90%90%90%90%HOPAX1
SM/BD DERIVATIVESPS: TRINSEO1111111111111111111111111111111110.965ESA2
PS: POLYCHEM LINDO
EPS: KOFUKU30303030303030303030300.970ACTUAL CASE BD CUSTOMERS
EPS: ARBE15151515151515151515150.9702015CAPIMPORT
EPS: ICK777777777770.970TRINSEO51
ABS: ARBE40404040404040404040400.520BASF7
SAN: ARBE20202020202020202020200.710GT422
SBL: BASF75757575757575757575750.5502016CAPIMPORT
SBL: TRINSEO10101010101010101010100.550TRINSEO7
ESBR: GT72727272727272727272720.385BASF9
UPR: ETERNAL555555555550.360GT1018
UPR: JUSTUS15151515151515151515150.360
UPR: PARDIC555555555550.360
PS: TRINSEO65%76%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
PS: POLYCHEM LINDO
EPS: KOFUKU41%59%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
EPS: ARBE13%0%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
EPS: ICK123%154%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
ABS: ARBE66%0%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
SAN: ARBE24%0%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
SBL: BASF19%27%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
SBL: TRINSEO134%160%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
ESBR: GT58%62%60%60%60%70%70%70%70%80%80%
UPR: ETERNAL208%165%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
UPR: JUSTUS178%218%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
UPR: PARDIC0%2%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
C3 DERIVATIVESAA: NSI1351351351351351351351351351351350.730
OXO: PON1001001001001001001001001001001000.890
AA: NSI79%83%85%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
OXO: PON89%89%89%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
PRODUCT BALANCES AND SALES PLAN
ETHYLENE SALES PLAN20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
SUPPLYCAP3397718158558178558558551,8051,8051,805
COMPETITOR- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0950950950ETHYLENECAPCONS
IMPORTCAP3942015339PIPE
OTHERS667641- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0324
CONSUMPTIONCAP3243984383453517157157151,1281,1281,12855
COMPETITOR3083382373453493713713845125155202020855
EXCESS/DEFICITCAP15373377510466140140140677677677715SPOT
COMPETITOR(308)(338)(237)(345)(349)(371)(371)(384)438435430120
PIPELINE SALES (2017 BASED)TITAN881100100100- 0- 0- 0- 0- 020251,805(1)
ASC25941481481486060606060601,128
POLYCHEM742666666303030303030120
SAU155048484830303030303020
TOTAL55267362362362120120120120120120
CAP BALANCE(1)11015148104202020557557557
PROPYLENE SALES PLAN20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025557
SUPPLYCAP181422445467447467467467986986986
COMPETITOR3043933924104104105185181,0371,0371,037
IMPORTCAP2961872- 022515- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERS
CONSUMPTIONCAP476440517444468472482435808868880
COMPETITOR2923442984745185626736731,1601,1601,160
EXCESS/DEFICITCAP(296)(18)(72)23(22)(5)(15)32178118107
COMPETITOR114994(65)(108)(152)(155)(155)(124)(124)(124)PROPYLENEPRODCONS
PIPELINE SALES (2017 BASED)NSI- 0- 0- 0- 036363636362015181PIPE
TOTAL- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 03636363636476
CAP BALANCE- 0- 0- 023- 0- 0(36)(4)1428271- 0
BUTADIENE SALES PLAN201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252020467
SUPPLYCAP478910592119130130129178200254472SPOT
COMPETITOR- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0124124124- 0
IMPORTCAP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 02025986- 0
OTHERS880
CONSUMPTIONCAP- 0- 0- 0457281818181818136
COMPETITOR- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
EXCESS/DEFICITCAP4789105474749494897119173
COMPETITOR- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0124124124
PIPELINE SALES (2017 BASED)SBL: TRINSEO5777777777771
SBL: BASF79101010101010101010
ESBR: GT410- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
TOTAL1626171717171717171717
PBI BALANCE316388303032323181102156
SUMMARY OF ALL PRODUCTS' OPERATING RATESCONS
OR20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
C257%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%
C363%72%91%93%90%93%92%92%94%94%94%BUTADIENEPRODSRI
C457%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%201547DOMESTICSPOT
PG57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%- 0
LL76%85%71%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%1631
HD63%86%80%70%71%84%84%87%89%89%90%2020130
PP84%86%85%75%81%86%87%83%85%88%89%81
BD47%89%105%67%87%95%95%94%76%81%95%1732
SMI69%81%97%82%87%90%90%90%90%90%90%2025254
RUBBER0%0%0%50%80%90%90%90%90%90%90%81
17156
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JNC:170908 INFO FROM BD TEAM
DOM
CAP
CONS
PIPE
SPOT
Quantity in KTA
C2
CAP
CONS
DOMESTIC
SPOT
Quantity in KTA
C3
CAP
SRI
PIPE
SPOT
Quantity in KTA
BD
1234567891011121314151617
ALL IN KTAHISTORICALOWN PROJECTION/COPY PASTE IF AVAILABLECOPY PASTEIHS CASE
INDONESIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025OPTIONNAME_CAP_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
NAMEPLATE CAPACITY6006006006006006008608609009009009009002,9002,9002,900C2_INDO600600600600600600860860860860860860860860860860
STEAM CRACKERETHANE2C2_SEA9,5479,9889,98810,65511,11811,50811,82811,88811,98011,98014,03014,03014,03014,03014,03014,030
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPGC2_WORLD142,588146,071147,310150,762152,945154,259157,934164,857171,140174,791178,700184,390185,140185,140185,140185,140
STEAM CRACKERLPGPROD_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
CTOCTOC2_INDO474486534540534360679705705688748722757697808757
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPGC2_SEA7,7338,2908,8899,1639,89510,35710,52710,46110,66210,78212,20612,34612,20612,20612,48712,346
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA6006006006006006008608609009009009009002,9002,9002,900Indo Case SheetC2_WORLD121,200125,621126,687131,163134,592138,833140,612145,096149,884152,346159,043162,263162,923162,923164,775164,775
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANEO/R_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDROC2_INDO79%81%89%90%89%60%79%82%82%80%87%84%88%81%94%88%
OTHERSFCC/DCCC2_SEA_W/O INDO81%83%89%86%89%92%90%88%90%91%87%88%87%87%89%88%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUESC2_WORLD_W/O INDO85%86%86%87%88%90%89%88%88%87%89%88%88%88%89%89%
MTOMTO
OTHERSOTHERNAPHTHA + LPG_WORLD_W/O SEA2542044402,1901,450700- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKINGNAPHTHA_WORLD_W/O SEA165- 0150600- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPMTP
OTHERSRFCC
OTHERSCTP
PDHPDH
OCUOCU
OTHERSHS-FCC
O/R76%81%89%90%89%57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%
CTO
MTO
MTP
STEAM CRACKER76%81%89%90%89%57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%Actual + MRB
OTHERS
OCU
PDHaagr 2015-2020aagr 2020-2025
PRODUCTION4574865345405343397718158558178558558552,7552,7552,75528%44%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERLPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
CTOCTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA4574865345405343397718158558178558558552,7552,7552,755
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSFCC/DCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTOMTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPMTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSRFCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSCTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
PDHPDH- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OCUOCU- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
DOMESTIC DEMAND1,1141,0991,1261,1591,1311,0181,3411,4031,4201,3891,8291,8541,8542,7142,7172,719
AO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
EB839610392726880958185888888888888Actual + MRB
EDC270235297296301292376405431429421421421421421421EDCPVC Sheet
EO12414511514796121121101103100158178178178178178EOPET Sheet
HDPE318310303293308251353373374357374374374810810810HDPE Sheet
LDPE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0289289289LDPE Sheet
LLDPE290283276267281210334353353338707707707839839839LLDPE Sheet
VA- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0IHS Ethylene
OTHER28303264737678767880818686889193IHS Ethylene
BALANCE(657)(613)(592)(619)(597)(679)(570)(588)(565)(572)(974)(999)(999)413836
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0260- 040- 0- 0- 0- 02,000- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION29486(6)(195)4324440(38)38- 0- 01,900- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL DEMAND(14)2633(28)(113)3236217(31)44025- 086032
SOUTHEAST ASIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
NAMEPLATE CAPACITY9,3839,51610,01710,68411,20211,53711,90111,96112,09314,49314,49314,49314,49317,59317,59317,593
STEAM CRACKERETHANE1,8001,8002,1922,1922,1922,1922,2522,3122,3122,3122,3122,3122,3122,3122,3122,312IHS Ethylene
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG1,5951,5951,5951,5951,5951,5951,5951,5951,5952,7952,7952,7952,7953,8453,8453,845IHS Ethylene + MRB
STEAM CRACKERLPG463463543543543543543543543543543543543543543543IHS Ethylene
CTOCTO
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA3,0233,0233,0233,0233,1583,3433,6033,6033,7354,9354,9354,9354,9356,9856,9856,985IHS Ethylene + MRB
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600IHS Ethylene
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO
OTHERSFCC/DCC- 0- 02929292973737373737373737373IHS Ethylene
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES1,9022,0352,0352,7023,0853,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,2353,235IHS Ethylene
MTOMTO
OTHERSOTHER
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING
MTPMTP
OTHERSRFCC
OTHERSCTP
PDHPDH
OCUOCU
OTHERSHS-FCC
O/R86%88%94%91%94%95%96%95%97%96%93%94%93%103%104%104%
CTO
MTO
MTP
STEAM CRACKER86%88%94%91%94%95%96%95%97%96%93%94%93%103%104%104%IHS ETHYLENE EXCL. INDO
OTHERS0%0%0%0%0%62%90%89%91%90%88%88%88%90%90%90%IHS ETHYLENE
OCU
PDH
PRODUCTION8,0708,3969,4239,67810,47810,90411,45711,39711,68413,97213,46513,64713,45518,13218,35618,238
STEAM CRACKERETHANE1,4601,4961,9511,8801,9512,0092,0222,0452,0702,0992,0112,0412,0102,0202,0502,035
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG1,2941,3261,4201,3681,4201,4621,4321,4111,4282,5372,4322,4672,4303,3603,4093,384
STEAM CRACKERLPG376385483466483498488480486493472479472475481478
CTOCTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA2,9092,9993,2243,1333,3453,4034,0064,0024,1995,2975,1485,2115,1458,8598,9498,902
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE487499534515534550539531537545522530522524532528
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSFCC/DCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 01866656666646464666666
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES1,5431,6921,8112,3172,7462,9652,9052,8622,8972,9372,8142,8552,8122,8272,8692,847
MTOMTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPMTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSRFCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSCTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
PDHPDH- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OCUOCU- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
DOMESTIC DEMAND8,5099,0839,4289,93510,48410,88611,27711,17711,39811,40713,25313,56914,21115,30415,42115,322
AO4434444444444444IHS Ethylene20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
EB573516541551505552503511500508507516518524521523IHS EthyleneETHANE1,7802,4975,3012,912210960750400400- 0
EDC637565647578565561642680713697746827852862849863EDCPVC SheetLPG1,050870477300- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
EO1,1471,2321,1481,2451,3331,3531,3111,2991,3301,2591,3651,5801,6011,7261,7931,635EOPET SheetNAPHTHA8284,0811,3232,6045902,7902,4504,800- 0- 0
HDPE2,8023,1333,1263,2243,2953,4473,4953,3493,2953,3653,8823,8474,0674,5664,6154,667HDPE SheetCOAL1458805925831,0741,074600- 0- 0- 0
LDPE1,1821,1821,3071,2431,3391,3641,3401,2501,2691,2631,2861,2771,2771,5661,5661,566LDPE SheetMETHANOL6287848010- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
LLDPE1,7131,8712,0192,3462,6222,7833,1703,2573,4573,4714,5754,6074,9735,1335,1425,125LLDPE SheetOTHERS441173395- 024- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
VA676668116181185183181176185204205206208209210IHS Ethylene
OTHER384513569628640636630646654655684707714715722728IHS Ethylene
BALANCE(440)(686)(5)(258)(6)181792202862,56521277(756)2,8272,9352,917
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY133501667518335364601322,400- 0- 0- 03,100- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION3271,027255800426553(60)2872,288(508)182(191)4,677225(118)
INCREMENTAL DEMAND574345508549402391(100)22191,8453176421,093117(100)
WORLD2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
NAMEPLATE CAPACITY141,230147,588150,089154,349158,077161,100165,972175,256183,424189,833191,742196,577200,377205,577205,977205,977
STEAM CRACKERETHANE23,10624,91325,24626,21627,07227,88829,66832,16437,46540,37740,58741,54742,29742,69743,09743,097
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG31,02131,37431,48631,56731,70131,32332,74535,95636,21037,61438,05440,24441,69443,44443,44443,444
STEAM CRACKERLPG7,9799,0479,1399,1399,1399,1399,2109,3309,8079,8079,8079,8079,8079,8079,8079,807
CTOCTO1133003605111,2832,1382,2833,1633,7554,3385,4126,4867,0867,0867,0867,086
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG15,58515,65615,90616,25616,25616,28316,34417,13617,32517,32517,32517,32518,32518,32518,32518,325
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA39,85141,27941,83942,53343,61843,97143,81643,47743,77444,97445,12445,72445,72447,77447,77447,774
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE11,90712,70813,85514,49214,49214,62115,60016,35016,35016,65016,65016,65016,65016,65016,65016,650
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO183356380404466552622622817817841841841841841841
OTHERSFCC/DCC2934235005005007508448441,0441,0441,0441,0441,0441,0441,0441,044
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES10,73211,04710,81811,63612,26312,52012,02012,43713,02013,02013,02013,02013,02014,02014,02014,020
MTOMTO- 0251006257941,2501,8752,6552,7352,7452,7452,7452,7452,7452,7452,745
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING200200200200200200200200200200211222222222222222
MTPMTP87878787100182185189189189189189189189189189
OTHERSRFCC173173173173173263293293293293293293293293293293
OTHERSCTP- 0- 0010202020202020202020202020
PDHPDH- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OCUOCU- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0247420420420420420420420420420
O/R85%86%86%87%88%90%89%88%88%87%89%88%88%89%90%90%
CTO44%67%80%87%68%87%80%75%75%75%80%85%85%85%85%85%
MTO0%40%50%64%83%81%75%76%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%
MTP0%40%40%40%40%22%30%60%60%70%70%75%75%80%85%85%
STEAM CRACKER85%86%87%87%88%90%90%89%88%88%89%89%88%89%90%90%
OTHERS64%65%75%71%72%67%73%71%70%76%75%75%74%75%74%74%
OCU59%65%68%70%70%70%71%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%
PDH76%77%88%82%81%71%70%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%
PRODUCTION119,874126,816129,658134,284139,186144,977147,774153,975160,557165,785170,067173,105176,179182,797185,013184,944
STEAM CRACKERETHANE19,57521,37821,77422,77723,84425,16526,44628,32932,86735,28936,08036,57537,19737,57238,33938,335
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG26,31426,94227,12227,44027,91228,25229,18231,66431,75432,89733,81635,42936,66138,22038,64338,629
STEAM CRACKERLPG6,7667,7697,8757,9438,0488,2448,2098,2178,6038,5718,7198,6348,6258,6308,7258,724
CTOCTO502012884458721,8601,8262,3722,8163,2544,3305,5136,0236,0236,0236,023
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG13,25113,46813,67714,14114,30514,67414,56115,08715,17815,10615,42115,24916,12616,13216,30516,310
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA34,22335,90736,60137,50238,94840,01639,83139,11039,27740,20840,92141,11341,04044,76745,24245,206
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE10,10110,91411,93212,59912,75813,18513,90214,39814,33614,53914,80814,65714,64614,65414,81314,813
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO117231285287336370454442572621631631622631622622
OTHERSFCC/DCC188275375355360503616599731793783783773783773773
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES9,0519,4449,36310,08910,82211,33210,73110,96411,46911,46811,52411,46811,42312,32112,46512,446
MTOMTO- 010504006591,0131,4062,0182,1882,1962,1962,1962,1962,1962,1962,196
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING128130150142144134146142140152158167164167164164
MTPMTP- 0353535404056113113132132142142151161161
OTHERSRFCC111112130123125176214208205223220220217220217217
OTHERSCTP- 0- 007141315141415151515151515
PDHPDH- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OCUOCU- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0180298294319315315311315311311
DOMESTIC DEMAND122,490126,390128,784132,548136,266141,546146,841151,907157,278162,951170,443176,606182,318188,376193,504198,333
AO3,2113,2683,4743,6003,6963,8843,9564,1464,2764,4994,7354,9925,3235,4925,7115,812IHS ETHYLENE
EB7,9297,9497,9418,0678,0888,1298,1908,3768,5588,7628,9508,9998,9998,9998,9998,999IHS ETHYLENE
EDC13,06513,30513,47613,51213,20013,50013,81114,05214,31714,52914,82915,14415,53715,84516,15316,431EDCPVC SHEET
EO18,23119,14219,75420,36620,96421,51522,14422,71923,22523,85424,72625,73626,71227,67628,47529,287EOPET SHEET
HDPE34,29236,00336,61137,73638,73641,02242,55744,22046,13348,17450,70852,79754,75557,20859,19361,162HDPE SHEET
LDPE18,52818,52818,61119,01319,76120,13521,20521,76022,41123,07123,73324,36924,36924,65824,65824,658LDPE SHEET
LLDPE20,67621,43621,75722,83124,28025,68627,11628,59530,10931,67534,13735,76537,60539,23540,72742,186LLDPE SHEET
VA1,5441,5631,6301,7011,6931,6741,6851,6881,7111,7561,8021,8271,8731,9312,0052,060IHS ETHYLENE
OTHER5,0145,1955,5305,7225,8496,0006,1786,3526,5386,6326,8226,9777,1467,3327,5837,737IHS ETHYLENE
BALANCE(2,616)4268741,7362,9203,4319322,0683,2792,834(376)(3,501)(6,139)(5,579)(8,491)(13,389)
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY6,3582,5014,2603,7283,0234,8729,2858,1686,4091,9094,8353,8005,200400- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION6,9422,8424,6264,9025,7912,7976,2026,5815,2294,2823,0373,0746,6182,215(69)
INCREMENTAL DEMAND3,9002,3943,7643,7195,2805,2955,0665,3715,6747,4926,1635,7126,0585,1284,829
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:Expansion
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:CAP starts up cracker
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:Assuming that SMI does not expand
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:RAPID
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:LSP
BD
ETHANE
LPG
NAPHTHA
COAL
METHANOL
OTHERS
BAL
1234567891011121314151617
ALL IN KTAHISTORICALOWN PROJECTION/COPY PASTE IF AVAILABLEOWN SIMULATED GROWTH ONLY TO BE APPLIED WHENEVER THERE'S NO FORECAST DATA
INDONESIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025C3/C2INDONESIAGDP2-EHAAACNCUMENEISOBUTANOLISOPROPANOLN-BUTANOLOTHERSPPPO
NAMEPLATE CAPACITY6006006007787789181,0631,0631,0851,0851,0851,2051,2052,2982,2982,29820110.06205%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%-40%0%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.01220120.06000%13%0%0%0%0%0%0%24%0%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.43520130.05603%38%0%0%0%0%0%0%9%0%
STEAM CRACKERLPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.11420140.05000%53%0%0%0%0%0%0%8%0%
CTOCTO20150.04790%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%18%0%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.44920160.04930%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA3253253253253253254704704924924924924921,5851,5851,585C2 SHEET0.58120170.05300%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%0%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.16820182019202020212022202320242025
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO2.538188809-0.12518268552-EH1%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%
OTHERSFCC/DCC-4.37552377230.4063163871ACRYLIC ACID17%15%14%14%14%14%14%14%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 00.62800ACRYLONITRILE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTOMTO00CUMENE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OTHERSOTHER00ISOBUTANOL0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING00ISOPROPANOL0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTPMTP00N-BUTANOL0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OTHERSRFCC27527527545345359359359359359359371371371371371300OTHERS0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OTHERSCTP-17.03215152320.9567028129POLYPROPYLENE2%-3%-7%-7%-7%-7%-7%-7%
PDHPDH00PROPYLENE OXIDE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OCUOCU
OTHERSHS-FCC
O/R79%73%71%80%88%63%88%90%90%88%90%90%90%92%92%92%
CTO0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%C2 SHEET
MTO0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%C2 SHEET
MTP0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%C2 SHEET
STEAM CRACKER76%81%89%90%89%57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%C2 SHEET
OTHERS83%64%51%74%87%67%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%Argus C3 Book 2013
OCU80%84%86%77%75%75%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%C2 SHEET
PDH71%76%83%78%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%C2 SHEET
PRODUCTION4754394296266825809349569789579781,0821,0822,1202,1202,120
STEAM CRACKERETHANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERLPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
CTOCTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA2472632892932891844224454674474674674671,5061,5061,506
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSFCC/DCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTOMTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPMTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSRFCC228175140334393396512511511511511614614614614614
OTHERSCTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
PDHPDH- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OCUOCU- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
DOMESTIC DEMAND7154855766316947898038349209911,0411,1671,1211,9812,0422,053
2-EH82868689898989897979798080808080ARGUS & 90% OF PON CAPACITY
ACRYLIC ACID29303447727578807881838989898989AA SHEET
ACRYLONITRILE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
CUMENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
ISOBUTANOL- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
ISOPROPANOL- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
N-BUTANOL- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERS13131313131313131313131313131313ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
POLYPROPYLENE5913564434825206126236527508178659869391,8001,8601,871PP SHEET
PROPYLENE OXIDE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
BALANCE(239)(47)(147)(5)(12)(209)13112258(33)(62)(86)(39)1397867
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY- 0- 0178- 0140145- 022- 0- 0120- 01,093- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION(37)(10)19756(102)3542322(21)21103- 01,038- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL DEMAND(229)915563951531867150127(47)8606011
SOUTHEAST ASIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025C3/C2SOUTHEAST ASIAGDP2-EHAAACNCUMENEISOBUTANOLISOPROPANOLN-BUTANOLOTHERSPPPO
NAMEPLATE CAPACITY6,8336,9767,4158,1328,4518,7939,1389,264- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 020110.04931%-1%0%6%0%2%6%7%112406%12%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE22222727272728292929292929292929C2 Sheet0.01220120.05883%5%0%3%0%2%4%8%6%54%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG6946946946946946946946946941,2151,2151,2151,2151,6721,6721,672C2 Sheet0.43520130.05111%10%0%26%0%2%6%8%6%0%
STEAM CRACKERLPG53536262626262626262626262626262C2 Sheet0.11420140.04514%14%0%45%0%7%0%3%2%8%
CTOCTO20150.04480%1%0%10%0%0%0%1%8%4%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0C2 Sheet0.44920160.04500%1%2%-1%0%-2%0%0%-2%2%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA1,7561,7561,7561,7561,8351,9422,0932,0932,1702,8672,8672,8672,8674,0584,0584,058C2 Sheet0.58120170.04800%1%0%4%0%5%0%6%4%5%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE101101101101101101101101101101101101101101101101C2 Sheet0.16820182019202020212022202320242025
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO1.0998494204-0.04064781812-EH1%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%
OTHERSFCC/DCC128128128128128128322322322322322322322322322322Capacity File0.44422198910.0218465172ACRYLIC ACID4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES1,1941,2781,2781,6961,9372,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,0312,031C2 Sheet0.628-0.60010144220.0326393838ACRYLONITRILE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTOMTO-8.16143074460.5308990629CUMENE13%12%11%11%11%11%11%11%
OTHERSOTHER00ISOBUTANOL0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING-0.11228936990.0285111164ISOPROPANOL2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%
MTPMTP3.5655605566-0.1515675836N-BUTANOL2%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%
OTHERSRFCC1,0251,0251,3501,5281,5281,6681,6681,793- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Capacity File & DOM Sheet5.0104309282-0.1980822112OTHERS5%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%
OTHERSCTP3403.1920518872-5.6447603214POLYPROPYLENE16182%16708%17022%17022%17022%17022%17022%17022%
PDHPDH1,0301,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,0901,090Capacity File32.3098116931-1.458627824PROPYLENE OXIDE13%18%21%21%21%21%21%21%
OCUOCU630630630750750750750750703703703703703703703703Capacity File
OTHERSHS-FCC200200300300300300300300300300300300300300300300Capacity File
O/R73%77%81%80%81%63%88%91%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
CTO0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTO0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTP0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
STEAM CRACKER76%81%89%90%89%57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%C2 Sheet
OTHERS62%62%62%62%62%62%90%89%91%90%88%88%88%90%90%90%C2 Sheet
OCU80%84%86%77%75%75%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%Argus
PDH71%76%83%78%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%83%Argus
PRODUCTION4,9845,3556,0436,5436,8225,5128,0408,3856,8497,7357,9897,9897,9899,5679,5679,567
STEAM CRACKERETHANE17182424241525272726272727272727
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG5285626176246173926226576591,1031,1551,1551,1551,5881,5881,588
STEAM CRACKERLPG40435556553556595956595959595959
CTOCTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA1,3371,4231,5631,5811,6331,0981,8781,9842,0622,6032,7242,7242,7243,8553,8553,855
STEAM CRACKERETHANE + PROPANE77829091905790959691969696969696
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSFCC/DCC797979797979290287293290283283283290290290
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES9091,0351,1371,5271,7241,1481,8221,9251,9301,8441,9301,9301,9301,9301,9301,930
MTOMTO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPMTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSRFCC6366368379479471,0341,5011,596- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSCTP- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
PDHPDH736823909853903903909909909909909909909909909909
OCUOCU502531544575564565578579542542542542542542542542
OTHERSHS-FCC124124186186186186270267273270264264264270270270
DOMESTIC DEMAND1,2655,3625,8476,2136,5736,9886,8807,2027,3837,7198,9879,3359,78310,68010,77910,832
2-EH191192198200209209209209212215219222224224224224Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
ACRYLIC ACID199197206227258261264266189189189189189189189189Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
ACRYLONITRILE43434343434344444444444444454545Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
CUMENE224237243307446491485503568634692692692692692692Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
ISOBUTANOL- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
ISOPROPANOL53545556606059625050505050505050Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
N-BUTANOL102108112119119119119119122125130134138143147152Argus + MRB
OTHERS163232286308338342342401420444471500530562597633Argus + MRB
POLYPROPYLENE43,9794,2114,4604,5694,9134,7985,0115,2255,4656,6416,9527,3638,2238,2838,295PP Sheet
PROPYLENE OXIDE286320493493531550560587551551551551551551551551Argus + MRB Capped by 90% NC
BALANCE3,719(7)195329250(1,476)1,1601,182(533)16(998)(1,346)(1,794)(1,113)(1,212)(1,265)
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY144439717319342346126- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION371688500280(1,310)2,528344(1,535)886254- 0- 01,578- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL DEMAND4,097485366359415(107)3221803361,2683484488979953
WORLD20182019202020212022202320242025C3/C2INDONESIAGDP2-EHAAACNCUMENEISOBUTANOLISOPROPANOLN-BUTANOLOTHERSPPPO
STEAM CRACKERNAMEPLATE CAPACITY106,516110,507112,481116,171119,450129,140133,902142,356- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 020110.0620-9%-2%0%-2%-5%-16%1%14%3%5%
STEAM CRACKERETHANE285307311323334344366397462498501512522527532532C2 Sheet0.01220120.06005%-4%1%-3%1%-12%-2%1%3%5%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG13,49013,64313,69213,72713,78613,62114,24015,63615,74616,35716,54817,50118,13118,89218,89218,892DOM Sheet0.43520130.056012%2%2%-2%4%-2%3%3%5%1%
CTOLPG9101,0311,0421,0421,0421,0421,0501,0641,1181,1181,1181,1181,1181,1181,1181,118C2 Sheet0.11420140.050013%17%3%6%4%2%2%4%4%2%
STEAM CRACKERCTO2035406537691,3122,5952,8033,9554,4845,1336,5987,9638,8038,8038,8038,80320150.04798%12%2%11%-4%-2%0%4%7%2%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG7,0047,0357,1487,3057,3057,3177,3457,7007,7857,7857,7857,7858,2358,2358,2358,235C2 Sheet0.44920160.04935%6%3%3%1%6%1%4%5%1%
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA23,15323,98324,30824,71225,34225,54725,45725,26025,43326,13026,21726,56626,56627,75727,75727,757DOM Sheet0.58120170.05302%1%2%3%11%11%2%4%4%1%
OTHERSETHANE + PROPANE1,9972,1322,3242,4312,4312,4522,6172,7422,7422,7932,7932,7932,7932,7932,7932,793C2 Sheet0.16820182019202020212022202320242025
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0-7.45303114970.45314645152-EH4%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%
STEAM CRACKERFCC/DCC9789991,0271,0271,0271,4811,7661,7662,5042,5042,5042,5042,5042,5042,5042,504Capacity File-11.22141190660.6511043058ACRYLIC ACID3%0%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%
MTONAPHTHA + RESIDUES6,7386,9366,7927,3067,6997,8617,5477,8088,1758,1758,1758,1758,1758,8028,8028,802C2 Sheet0.628-1.64715866170.1084520573ACRYLONITRILE2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
OTHERSMTO- 0451809451,2241,7602,4103,6803,7913,7913,7913,7913,7913,7913,7913,791-8.24727418040.4678529235CUMENE1%-1%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0-1.98149610660.1226409368ISOBUTANOL1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%
MTPHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0-13.39225732120.7054458911ISOPROPANOL-3%-7%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%
OTHERSMTP2,7202,7202,7202,7203,0475,0955,4205,5105,6636,1206,1206,1206,1206,1206,1206,120-1.1503474410.0741412056N-BUTANOL1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
OTHERSRFCC33,15233,81734,75535,86136,54938,92938,93039,852- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Capacity File & DOM Sheet3.1199456704-0.1195717884OTHERS5%6%7%7%7%7%7%7%
PDHCTP1,0001,0001,0101,2501,5001,5001,5001,5501,7001,8501,8501,8501,8501,8501,8501,850-2.27131081420.1665180115POLYPROPYLENE4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%
OCUPDH8,3619,2419,2419,2419,34112,08314,88817,83320,35321,42821,42821,68821,68821,68821,68821,688Capacity File2.8986765326-0.1302822933PROPYLENE OXIDE3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%
OTHERSOCU3,9894,5414,6414,8764,8764,8764,8764,8764,8294,8294,8294,8294,8294,8294,8294,829Capacity File
HS-FCC2,5362,5362,6362,6362,6362,6362,6892,7262,7262,7262,7262,7262,7262,7262,7262,726Capacity File
O/R67%71%76%76%78%76%78%77%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
CTO44%67%80%87%68%87%80%75%75%75%80%85%85%85%85%85%C2 SHEET
MTO0%40%50%64%83%81%75%76%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%C2 SHEET
MTP0%40%40%40%40%22%30%60%60%70%70%75%75%80%85%85%C2 SHEET
STEAM CRACKER85%86%87%87%88%90%90%89%88%88%89%89%88%89%90%90%C2 SHEET
OTHERS64%65%75%71%72%67%73%71%70%76%75%75%74%75%74%74%C2 SHEET
OCU59%65%68%70%70%70%71%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%C2 SHEET
PDH76%77%88%82%81%71%70%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%74%C2 SHEET
STEAM CRACKERPRODUCTION71,28578,44985,69588,06592,89098,419104,360108,95384,47088,31990,56992,68294,13197,22697,70397,679
STEAM CRACKERETHANE242265269282295311328351408438447453461471480480
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + LPG11,47911,75611,85111,97812,18812,32012,76213,84813,89414,38414,78115,48816,02316,89017,07417,067
CTOLPG400691834906708906840798839839894950950950950950
STEAM CRACKERCTO1734655656711,1602,3472,5123,5033,9564,5145,8947,0487,7807,8717,9567,953
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA + RESIDUES + LPG5,9596,0626,1866,3746,4596,6186,5826,8206,8696,8466,9546,8907,2777,3627,4427,439
STEAM CRACKERNAPHTHA19,70120,66521,03921,56322,40623,10722,81522,37122,44022,97823,41823,51123,47724,81625,08525,075
OTHERSETHANE + PROPANE1,2781,3851,7431,7261,7501,6431,9101,9471,9202,1222,0952,0952,0672,0952,0672,067
OTHERSETHANOL DEHYDRO- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
STEAM CRACKERFCC/DCC8328618898969081,3401,5831,5642,2102,2022,2372,2162,2132,2392,2632,262
MTONAPHTHA + RESIDUES- 02,7743,3964,6766,3906,3675,6605,9346,5406,5406,5406,5406,5407,0427,0427,042
OTHERSMTO- 0291356718811,1791,7592,6132,6542,8812,8432,8432,8052,8432,8052,805
OTHERSOTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
MTPHIGH OLEFINS CRACKING- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
OTHERSMTP1,7411,7682,0401,9312,1943,4143,9573,9123,9644,6514,5904,5904,5294,5904,5294,529
OTHERSRFCC21,21821,98126,06725,46226,31626,08328,41928,295- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
PDHCTP7587688881,0291,2161,0641,0441,1411,2511,3621,3621,3621,3621,3621,3621,362
OCUPDH4,9506,0266,3126,4386,5078,45310,62912,39414,14614,89314,89315,07315,07315,07315,07315,073
OTHERSOCU2,5532,9523,4813,4623,5113,2673,5593,4623,3803,6703,6223,6223,5733,6223,5733,573
HS-FCC- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
DOMESTIC DEMAND80,61581,96783,57186,74190,70196,268100,420104,329108,696111,829115,259117,030116,981118,882119,422119,245
2-EH3,0752,8132,9593,3123,7334,0164,1974,2784,4634,5564,5834,6114,6384,6664,6944,722ARGUS & 90% OF PON CAPACITY
ACRYLIC ACID1,6041,5741,5101,5411,8062,0142,1262,1472,2202,2202,1712,1232,0762,0301,9851,941AA SHEET
ACRYLONITRILE5,6465,6545,7265,8295,9906,1266,3136,4606,6076,7626,9806,9806,9806,9806,9806,980ACN SHEET
CUMENE5,0774,7324,5984,2574,5315,0305,1605,3215,3975,3405,1965,0564,9194,7874,6584,532ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
ISOBUTANOL200190191198206198199221224226227227228229230231
ISOPROPANOL1,3101,0979699469619451,0041,1191,3901,3901,3901,3901,3901,3901,3901,390ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
N-BUTANOL1,6261,6351,6051,6561,6921,6981,7231,7661,7851,7981,8081,8171,8261,8361,8451,854ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
OTHERS3,5394,0314,0634,1854,3644,5304,7254,9245,1805,4985,8706,2676,6917,1437,6268,142ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
POLYPROPYLENE52,68154,07355,44558,21760,67764,82768,05071,07574,59677,20380,20181,72681,39982,98883,18182,620PP SHEET
PROPYLENE OXIDE5,8576,1696,5056,6016,7416,8846,9237,0186,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,835ARGUS & OWN PROJECTION
BALANCE(9,330)(3,518)2,1241,3242,1892,1503,9404,624(24,226)(23,510)(24,690)(24,348)(22,850)(21,656)(21,718)(21,566)
INCREMENTAL CAPACITY3,9911,9743,6903,2799,6904,7628,454- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION7,1647,2462,3704,8255,5295,9414,594(24,483)3,8492,2502,1131,4493,094477(24)
INCREMENTAL DEMAND1,3521,6043,1703,9605,5674,1523,9094,3673,1323,4311,771(49)1,900540(176)
OXO6,2115,7355,7246,1126,5926,8577,1237,3847,8627,9708,0078,0458,0828,1208,1588,196
AA1,6041,5741,5101,5411,8062,0142,1262,1472,2202,2202,1712,1232,0762,0301,9851,941
ACN5,6465,6545,7265,8295,9906,1266,3136,4606,6076,7626,9806,9806,9806,9806,9806,980
CUMENE5,0774,7324,5984,2574,5315,0305,1605,3215,3975,3405,1965,0564,9194,7874,6584,532
PP52,68154,07355,44558,21760,67764,82768,05071,07574,59677,20380,20181,72681,39982,98883,18182,620
PO5,8576,1696,5056,6016,7416,8846,9237,0186,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,8356,835
OTHERS3,5394,0314,0634,1854,3644,5304,7254,9245,1805,4985,8706,2676,6917,1437,6268,142
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
Sarah J Ghozali - MRB:From ARGUS 2014 C3 Book
BAL
GLOBAL PROPYLENE DEMAND (2020)
AA2%
ACN7%
PO7%
1234567891011121314151617
ALL IN KTAHISTORICALOWN PROJECTION/COPY PASTE IF AVAILABLECOPY PASTESOURCE
INDONESIAINDONESIAINDONESIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025NAME_CAP_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
INDONESIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYNAMEPLATE CAPACITY- 0- 0- 050100100100100- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD_INDO- 0- 0- 050100100100100100100100100100100100100
INDONESIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD_SEA494595595645749795795795795795975975975975975975
INDONESIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION- 0- 0- 050100100100100- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Indo Case SheetBD_WORLD12,04912,38912,59412,97013,60813,92814,04314,22714,37014,37014,55015,14215,35215,35215,35215,352
INDONESIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0PROD_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEO/R0%0%0%42%74%57%90%95%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%BD_INDO- 0- 0- 021745067696787959594677588
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%BD_SEA389425390465615616576702701729832856866813798868
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION0%0%0%42%74%57%90%95%95%91%95%95%95%95%95%95%Indo Case SheetBD_WORLD8,8919,4409,4219,68010,05510,36410,40110,82211,04211,34611,56111,81211,99112,32012,50612,766
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%O/R_IHS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEPRODUCTION- 0- 0- 02174579095- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD_INDO0%0%0%42%74%50%67%69%67%87%95%95%94%67%75%88%
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD_SEA_W/O INDO79%71%66%75%83%81%73%91%91%92%84%87%88%85%83%89%
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION- 0- 0- 02174579095- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Indo Case SheetBD_WORLD_W/O INDO74%76%75%75%74%75%74%76%77%79%79%78%78%80%82%83%
INDONESIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC DEMAND153182177187197210223235246255264274284295308320
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDABSABS2322233332222233BD S/D Balance IHS
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDADIPONITRILEADIPONITRILE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBERPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDNITRILE RUBBERNITRILE RUBBER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Rubber Sheet
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDPBRPBR34687276828997104111117124131138145153162Rubber Sheet
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBLSBL28161818192021222223242526262728Rubber Sheet
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBRSBR889586919498103106110112114117119121124127Rubber Sheet
INDONESIADOMESTIC DEMANDOTHEROTHER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIABALANCEBALANCE(153)(182)(177)(166)(123)(154)(133)(140)(246)(255)(264)(274)(284)(295)(308)(320)
INDONESIAINCREMENTAL CAPACITY- 0- 05050- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIAINCREMENTAL PRODUCTION- 0- 02153(17)335(95)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
INDONESIAINCREMENTAL DEMAND29(5)101013131211991010111212
Source: IHS C4/Butadiene World Analysis 2017 Edition
SOUTHEAST ASIASOUTHEAST ASIASOUTHEAST ASIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
SOUTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYNAMEPLATE CAPACITY494595595645749795795795- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION494595595645749795795795- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEO/R62%51%43%55%70%65%58%85%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION62%51%43%55%70%65%58%85%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEPRODUCTION306304256352525518462672- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION306304256352525518462672- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC DEMAND6346967027147547968438729049279519729961,0211,0461,071
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDABSABS1029494868585889093939696100103107109BD S/D Balance IHS
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDADIPONITRILEADIPONITRILE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBERPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBER- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDNITRILE RUBBERNITRILE RUBBER10085104115127138148157165172180188195203210218Rubber Sheet
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDPBRPBR123206193204217233249259267272275278281283286289Rubber Sheet
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBLSBL61535355565758585960616262636465Rubber Sheet
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBRSBR236248246244256271288301314324333343353363374385Rubber Sheet
SOUTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDOTHEROTHER12111111121213666665555BD S/D Balance IHS
SOUTHEAST ASIABALANCEBALANCE(327)(393)(446)(362)(229)(278)(380)(200)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL CAPACITY101- 05010446- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL PRODUCTION(3)(48)97173(7)(56)210- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
SOUTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL DEMAND63612394247293223242124252625
NORTHEAST ASIANORTHEAST ASIANORTHEAST ASIA2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
NORTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYNAMEPLATE CAPACITY5,1895,4045,5845,9856,4856,6206,5176,7496,9376,9376,9377,0897,2497,2497,2497,249
NORTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 025219372430430545590590590590590590590590BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION5,1895,4045,5595,7666,1136,1906,0876,2046,3476,3476,3476,4996,6596,6596,6596,659BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIANAMEPLATE CAPACITYBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEO/R78%81%81%81%78%77%79%78%78%80%81%79%79%80%81%79%
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION78%81%81%81%78%77%79%78%78%80%81%79%79%80%81%79%BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION78%81%81%81%78%77%79%78%78%80%81%79%79%80%81%79%BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEPRODUCTION4,0564,3974,5334,8545,0405,1275,1405,2625,4095,5225,6015,6055,7355,7995,8375,698
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION- 0- 020178289333339425460470476466467472475464
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTIONBUTADIENE EXTRACTION4,0564,3974,5134,6764,7514,7944,8014,8374,9495,0525,1255,1385,2685,3275,3615,234
NORTHEAST ASIABIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC DEMAND4,4694,7925,1525,3335,2825,4195,4935,6165,7835,9026,0016,1446,3266,4766,6196,755
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDABSABS9208918889319521,0001,0391,0611,1071,1571,1881,2101,2501,2881,3081,349BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDADIPONITRILEADIPONITRILE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBERPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBER26262625262526272727262728292930BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDNITRILE RUBBERNITRILE RUBBER309323355372371391391400411422434444455465474483BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDPBRPBR1,2021,4041,5771,6431,5511,6171,6361,6411,7091,7181,7081,7761,8331,8861,9421,987BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBLSBL358379396422437449468495502514526539546552565566BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDSBRSBR1,1631,2251,3371,3471,3341,3051,2841,3291,3501,3681,4131,4331,4901,5231,5581,594BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIADOMESTIC DEMANDOTHEROTHER491544573593611632649663677696706715724733743746BD S/D Balance IHS
NORTHEAST ASIABALANCEBALANCE(413)(395)(619)(479)(242)(292)(353)(354)(374)(380)(400)(539)(591)(677)(782)(1,057)
NORTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL CAPACITY215180401500135(103)232188- 0- 0152160- 0- 0- 0
NORTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL PRODUCTION34113632118687131221471137931306438(139)
NORTHEAST ASIAINCREMENTAL DEMAND323360181(51)1377412316711999143182150143136
GLOBALGLOBALGLOBAL2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
GLOBALNAMEPLATE CAPACITYNAMEPLATE CAPACITY12,38712,72712,95713,52714,31814,69614,81115,110- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALNAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION338338363557710768768883928928928928928928928928
GLOBALNAMEPLATE CAPACITYBUTADIENE EXTRACTION (EXCL. INDO)BUTADIENE EXTRACTION12,04912,38912,59412,97013,60813,92814,04314,227- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALNAMEPLATE CAPACITYBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEO/R74%77%75%74%73%73%72%74%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION77%89%85%60%49%40%39%39%40%40%41%48%61%57%56%53%
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTION (EXCL. INDO)BUTADIENE EXTRACTION74%76%75%75%74%74%74%76%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEPRODUCTION9,1519,7409,73110,01410,40510,68010,72011,188- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBUTANE DEHYDROGENATIONBUTANE DEHYDROGENATION260300310334350310296340370370380450570530520490
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBUTADIENE EXTRACTION (EXCL. INDO)BUTADIENE EXTRACTION8,8919,4409,4219,68010,05510,37010,42410,848- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENEBIO-BUTADIENE- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0
GLOBALDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC DEMAND9,79710,05810,23010,54210,83111,11111,33211,68611,99612,32812,69013,06513,45413,85314,25814,697
GLOBALDOMESTIC DEMANDABSABS1,2851,2471,2371,2751,2991,3491,3941,4491,5061,5621,6251,6891,7531,8161,8791,949BD S/D Balance IHS
GLOBALDOMESTIC DEMANDADIPONITRILEADIPONITRILE511529511540582585561626618615624635649661674688BD S/D Balance IHS
GLOBALDOMESTIC DEMANDPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBERPOLYCHLOROPRENE RUBBER115114114113114113114115115115113114115116116117BD S/D Balance IHS
GLOBALDOMESTIC DEMANDNITRILE RUBBERNITRILE RUBBER65865069971572776