crfs march 30, 2010. virgin river nws-sws: 90 nws-esp: 60 55 (+8-15% el nino weighted) nrcs daily:...
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NWS-SWS: 90
NWS-ESP: 60 55 (+8-15% El Nino weighted)
NRCS daily: 80
NRCS statistical: 78
Coordinated: 80 / 195% median or 125% average
March 1 March 25
Virgin Basin Snow Plot2005 / 2010 / Average
Virgin River Flow (incl. Santa Clara)2005
A comparison with 2005
2005 Flood
2005 snowmelt
2010 LOWER COLORADO BASINLAKE MEAD LOCAL (Intervening Flow)
March 120 KAF (100% of average) April 120 KAF (104% of average) May 80 KAF ( 96% of average)
April - July Forecast: 270 KAF ( 93% of average) March - July Forecast: 390 KAF ( 95% of average)
ESP Generated
Colorado River -
Lake Powell to Diamond Fork
Little Colorado
Paria River
Virgin River
Muddy Creek
Intervening Flow Forecasts: Lake Powell to Lake Mead / Where is the skill ?
Muddy3% Virgin
22%
Paria2%
Little Colorado18%
Havasu5%
Kanab1%
Powell to GC18%
GC to Diamond31%
Annual Inflow Powell to Mead Tributary
Distribution(CBRFC calculated using USGS gages)
Inflow Between Powell & Mead:
Lake Mead Inflow
Forecast Periods: Virgin Basin (Snow + Rain) & Arizona Basins (Rain, some snow)
April – July Runoff
Progressive Forecast Period
Jan-May
Jan 15 – May
Feb – May
Etc.
Virgin River Basin
Arizona & New Mexico Basins
Winter 2010 Highlights
Winter storm pattern that resulted was in line with the El Nino climate conditions
Significant rainfall in the Lower Colorado during the 3rd week of January (~10” in 24 hrs)
Very large snowpack in Arizona, significant snow at lower elevations Much above median volumes observed in January, much above median seasonal
volumes expected.
Forecast Challenge: Possibility of additional large precipitation events (El Nino) Forecast Challenge: The non-typical large snowpack and resulting volumes. Forecast Challenge: Dry soils exist under high elevation snowpack.
2010 LOWER COLORADO BASINSALT / VERDE
January 20-23, 2010 Precipitation
January flows in the Lower Colorado Basin
Jan Volume 850 % of median
Feb Volume 710 % of median