crime e cidades - wilson center · the analysis of the spatial distribution of the beta parameter...
TRANSCRIPT
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CRIME E CIDADESClaudio BeatoLemann Visiting Scholar
David Rockfeller Center for Latin American Studies
Harvard University
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Homicides - Brazil 1979-2007
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Ho
mcid
es N
1979 = 11.162
2007 = 45.964
In 28 years = 930. 137
homicides
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WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BRAZILIAN HOMICIDES?
Firearms
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MORE YOUNG PEOPLE DYING
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WHAT ABOUT RACE?
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FEAR AND VICTIMIZATION
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II - WHAT IS HAPPENING?
Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of the increase
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WHERE?
This increase is in some parts of the country
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CRESCIME
NTO POR
TAMANHO
DE
CIDADE
(SMR)
Municípios até 10 mil habitantes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
até 10 mil hab. - obs até 10 mil hab. - esp
Municípios de 10 mil a 50 mil habitantes
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
de 10 mil a 50 mil hab. - obs de 10 mil a 50 mil hab. - esp
Municípios de 50 mil a 100 mil habitantes
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
de 50 mil a 100 mil hab. - obs de 50 mil a 100 mil hab. - esp
Municípios de 100 mil a 250 mil habitantes
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
de 100 mil a 250 mil hab. - obs de 100 mil a 250 mil hab. - esp
Municípios de 250 mil a 500 mil habitantes
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
de 250 mil a 500 mil hab. - obs de 250 mil a 500 mil hab. - esp
Municípios com mais de 500 mil habitantes
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
acima de 500 mil hab. - obs acima de 500 mil hab. - esp
2 Constrangimentos estruturais e institucionais
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INCREASE RATES – 1979 2006
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Modelo Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardized
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
(Constant) 9.343 2.292 4.076 .000
Indice de estrutura domiciliar (renda baixa,
água encanada, carro, energia
elétrica, tv, coleta lixo)
1.972 .203 .157 9.729 .000
(log_cadol) diferença percentual
adolescentes com filhos-.938 .306 -.044 -3.069 .002
(c_idhren) diferença percentual idh renda -.090 .024 -.055 -3.796 .000
(c_mort1) diferença percentual taxa
mortalidade até 1 ano.023 .013 .027 1.861 .063
Variável para agregar os municípios
segundo os tamanhos populacionais
em 20053.995 .230 .270 17.344 .000
(Logdist) Distância da capital -7.329 .542 -.202 -13.514 .000
Índice de Gini, 2000 34.500 3.590 .157 9.609 .000
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III - WHAT IS HAPPENINGS IN URBAN
CENTERS?
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ZIP LAW OF VIOLENT CRIMES IN
BELO HORIZONTE
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KERNEL DENSITY BY HOUR IN
DOWNTOWN
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10
/12
/200
9
15
Kernel Density by hour in downtown
HORA
2220181614121086420
As
sa
ltos
Tra
nse
un
tes
no C
en
tro
da
Cid
ad
e
30
20
10
0
6 AM
12 PM
6 PM
10 PM
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Hotspots Images
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SPATIAL SEGREGATION IN
BRAZILIAN CITIES
Vitória“Atlas da Violência na Região Metropolitana da Grande
Vitória”, CRISP – Centro de Estudos em Criminalidade e
Segurança Pública da UFMG
São Paulo“Territory, Inequalities and Violence”, Frederico Roman
Ramos and Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro
Belo Horizonte
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Quilômetros
6
7 km7 km7 km7 km7 km7 km7 km7 km7 km
0 3
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
2,33 km
4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km4,07 km
11,3 km
11,3 km
11,3 km11,3 km
11,3 km11,3 km
11,3 km
11,3 km
11,3 km
4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km4,55 km
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
3,3
8 k
m
1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km1,62 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
3,77 km
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
Ocean
o A
tlân
tico
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42
Quilômetros
0
MORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITO
VILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIMVILA RUBIM
SANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRESANTO ANDRE
Spatial concentrationf of homicides – 2005 / 06
Entre 1 e 3 horas
Entre 4 e 6 horas
Entre 7 e 9 horas
Entre 10 e 12 horas
Entre 13 e 15 horas
Entre 16 e 18 horas
Entre 19 e 21 horas
Entre 22 e 24 horas
Domingo
Segunda-feira
Terça-feira
Quarta-feira
Quinta-feira
Sexta-feira
Sábado
Distribuição Percentual dos Homicídios por Dias da Semana X Hora do Dia
Vitória - Janeiro de 2005 a Dezembro de 2006
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4
Entre 1 e 3 horas
Entre 4 e 6 horas
Entre 7 e 9 horas
Entre 10 e 12 horas
Entre 13 e 15 horas
Entre 16 e 18 horas
Entre 19 e 21 horas
Entre 22 e 24 horas
Domingo
Segunda-feira
Terça-feira
Quarta-feira
Quinta-feira
Sexta-feira
Sábado
Distribuição Percentual dos Homicídios por Dias da Semana X Hora do Dia
Vitória - Janeiro de 2005 a Dezembro de 2006
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4
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Índice de Vulnerabilidade Social - Vitória
0 1 2
Quilômetros
JARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURIJARDIM CAMBURI
JARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHAJARDIM DA PENHA
PRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUAPRAIA DO SUA
MORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITOMORRO DE SAO BENEDITO
MORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAOMORRO DO ROMAO
BELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTABELA VISTA
INHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETAINHANGUETA
REDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAOREDENCAO
NOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINANOVA PALESTINA
Índice de Vulnerabilidade SocialCRISP / IBGE 2000
Nenhuma vulnerabilidade (315)
Vulnerabilidade muito baixa (224)
Baixa Vulnerabilidade (331)
Vulnerabilidade média (79)
Vulnerabilidade alta (205)
Vulnerabilidade muito alta (110)
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SÃO PAULO
What are the socio and economic factors that
explain spatial differences?
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SÃO PAULO RMSP by Segregation Indicators – DissimilarityINPE – Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa Espaciais
Educational
Level
Income Level
53,20%
32,13%
9,74%5,11% 18%
13%
13%
19%
20%
6%
11%
below
primary
up to
primary
education
graduated
up to
higher
secondary
Up to 1 m.w.
1 to 2 m.w.
2 to 3 m.w.
3 to 5 m.w.
5 to 10 m.w.
10 to 15 m.w.
more 15 m.w.
Ramos et al., Spatial Segregation in Latin American Cities, 2009, unpublished, for submission
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DISSIMILARITY – TRANSPORTATION INFRA-STRUTUCTURE
Income Level
Legend
scens00cem_project
D_EDU_10
0,00 - 0,05
0,06 - 0,15
0,16 - 0,20
0,21 - 0,35
0,36 - 0,40
0,41 - 0,81
Local
Dissimilarity
Index
Legend
sistema ferroviario
corredores_onibus
metro
<all other values>
NAME
Leste-Oeste
Luz-Vila Sonia
Norte-Sul
Paulista
Legend
sistema ferroviario
corredores_onibus
metro
<all other values>
NAME
Leste-Oeste
Luz-Vila Sonia
Norte-Sul
Paulista
Transport
Infra-structure
Rail
BRT
Metro
Metro (construction)
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DISSIMILARITY – PUBLIC PARKS
Legend
scens00cem_project
D_EDU_10
0,00 - 0,05
0,06 - 0,15
0,16 - 0,20
0,21 - 0,35
0,36 - 0,40
0,41 - 0,81
Local
Dissimilarity
Index
Public Parks
Income Level
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Homicide rates SP 1979 2007
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
year
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Contextualization – Homicides Distribution
Low
DensityHigh
Density
Even with a clear decrease of homicide rates in the RMSP, the spatial
concentration pattern persists
Source: Nery, M.B. Homicidios Dolosos: Indicador de um fenômeno complexo, 2007
2000 2005
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Datasets
Socio-economic Index:
A Proxy for Poverty
up1mw_p
62.557.5
52.547.5
42.537.5
32.527.5
22.517.5
12.57.5
2.5
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Std. Dev = 14.55
Mean = 30.6
N = 725.00
Percentage of the Head
of Household earning up
to 1 minimum wage
(CENSUS, 2000)
Ramos and Monteiro - 18th ECCA - Brasília – 07/2009
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GWR
0( , ) ( , )i i i k i i ik iky u v u v x
1
2
0 .. 0
0 .. 0( )
.. .. .. ..
0 0 0
i
i
in
w
wi
w
W
The GWR technique uses an
extended traditional regression
framework by allowing local rather
than global parameters to be
estimated.
Where (ui,vi) are the coordinates of the ith
point in space
Through a spatial Kernel Function a weight matrix W is estimated. This matrix allows the
estimation of the beta parameters in each location.
The analysis of the spatial distribution of the beta parameter and its statistical significance
can inform us about the magnitude, direction and significance of the association in
each local of the space.
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Results – GWR
Coefficient of Determination
0.44
With the analysis of the spatial
distribution of the beta
parameters it is possible to
observe that the magnitude and
the direction of the association
between the homicide rate and
the poverty indicator variable are
different when we move around
in the city.
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PARAISÓPOLIS / MORUMBIMORUMBI / PARAISÓPOLIS
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As favelas mais violentas foram
definidas em função da
concentração de homicídios
registrados pela Polícia Civil.
Assim, temos 6 conglomerados
urbanos com elevadas taxas de
mortes por homicídio na cidade de
Belo Horizonte.
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Existence of
homicide
clusters
N
Average
Standard
deviation
Sig.
Residential finishing No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
6,59
0,77
6,17
3,96
0,84
4,11
,001
Years of schooling No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
8,51
5,53
8,29
2,57
0,61
2,60
,006
Age No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
28,96
24,92
28,66
3,71
1,41
3,74
,010
Formal/informal occupation rate
No Yes
Total
75 6
81
3,39 2,32
3,31
1,10 ,36
1,10
,021
Childhood mortality No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
,28
,40
,29
,13
6,000E-02
,13
,035
Illiteracy rate No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
11,80
23,04
12,63
6,83
6,06
7,36
,000
Urban infrastructure index No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
-,24
-1,10
-,30
,66
,72
,70
,003
Social protection offer rate No
Yes
Total
75
6
81
,23
,91
,28
,49
,84
,54
,003
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HOMICIDES IN A FAVELA
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POLICE IN FAVELAS - RIO DE JANEIRO
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Jornada do Crime
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0,00
54,2
4
108,
48
162,
72
216,
96
271,
20
325,
43
379,
67
433,
91
488,
15
542,
39
596,
63
650,
87
705,
11
759,
35
813,
59
867,
82
922,
06
976,
30
1030
,54
1084
,78
1139
,02
1193
,26
1247
,50
1301
,74
1355
,98
1410
,22
1464
,45
1518
,69
Distância em metros
Po
rcen
tag
em
do
s C
aso
s
Journey to crime
Violence implosion
Fonte: Polícia Civil de Minas Gerais / CRISP
TAQUARIL
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Gang related Homicides em 2007Belo Horizonte – Serra favela
Focos de intervenção
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Patrãomembro 2
membro1
membro 4
membro3
Gerente
Gerente
Gerente
Patrãomembro 2
membro1
membro 4
membro3
Gerente
Gerente
Gerente
Patrãomembro 2
membro1
membro 4
membro3
Gerente
Gerente
Gerente
Distribuidor 1ArmasDrogas
Distribuidor 2 Armas Drogas
In a slum with 23.000 people
•80 youths involved with gangs
and drug dealing
• This means less than 0,5% of
local population and 2% of youth
aged betwen 15 and 24 years old
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YOUTHS AND CRIME
Gangs and the structure of criminal activities
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Structuration of criminal activities
I-Gangues territoriais e grupos expressivos
- violência espontânea
- ausência poder público
- violência policial
- Conflitos grupos
II-Non organized gropus in process of structuration
•Community leaders and violent offenders
•Massive use of firearms
•Many conflicts anddeaths
•The role of prisional system
•Police corruption
III-Organizando-se em bases políticas
Focalized violence
Territorial domination
Market of services and protection
Business oriented
Crucial
turning points
Societal logicCondicionantes sociais propiciam o surgimento de quadrilhas e gangues de base territorial (lógica societária)
IV-Crime
organizad
o
globalizad
o
Lógica econômicaProcesso seletivo, mercado eorganizações difusas
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INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS
The impact of Criminal Justice Organizations
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What can be done?
1. Fica Vivo
2. IGESP
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What can be done?
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PREVENTION PROGRAMS
Pulling leversFocusing high
prolific offendersRestoring order
Collective efficiency and crime control
Empowerment process
Reduction of crime rates
“Weed and Seed”
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Fica Vivo Program
Identifying locations (CRISP)
Training police officers in problem solving techniques (CRISP)
Special units in these locations
Implementation
Local nucleons of reference
Identifying and incapacitating high prolific offenders
Social development
Monitoring and evaluations
Process performance evaluations
Result evaluations
Cost benefit analysis
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Fica Vivo (Stay Alive) Program
Structure
Management Group
Strategic
InterventionSocial Protection
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Fica Vivo (Stay Alive) Program
Structure
GEPAR
Community police
Units
Prisons
Civil police
Monitoring
gangs
Judges
Federal police
Military Police
Prosecutors
Strategic
Intervention
group
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Arquitetura Atual
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Arquitetura Atual
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Fica Vivo (Stay Alive) Program
Structure
Open schools
Youth
protection
program
Job
Opportunities
Sports and
cultural
activities
Workshops
Local Leaders
NGOs
Local
Nucleus
of Social
Protection
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Fica Vivo’s activities
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Results
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COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Programs
Present value of
the cost of the
program per
beneficiary
Present value of the number
of serious crimes prevented
per beneficiary
Reais per
serious crime
prevented
Serious crimes
prevented per
million Reais
APAC 18417,990,00 0,87 21.109,75 47,37
Patrulha de
Prevenção Ativa 6.916,42
Liberdade Assistida 1.323,68 0,91 1.459,94 684,96
UERÊ 8.184,84 0,45 18.290,73 54,67
Paz nas Escolas 192,23 0,16 1.174,45 851,46
Fica Vivo 1.065,70 1,65 645,69 1.548,73
Bolsa Família 2.594,88 0,23 11.256,15 88,84
PROERD 35,43 0,02 1.682,33 594,42
CEAPA 145,40 - - -
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IGESP
Integration and management in Social; Security
Descentralization
Information sharing
Activities to solve problems
Community interactions
Main problems
Quality of police work
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Priorities areas
Personal crimesPriorities areas
Property crimes
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CRIMES VIOLENTOS BELO HORIZONTE
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
Jan
Mai
Set
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008