crime2
TRANSCRIPT
Crimes against property and persons
criminaljustice.state.ny.us
Crimes against property • Robbery• Burglary• Larceny• Theft• White collar crimes:
– Fraud– Embezzlement – Bribe– Insider trading– File sharing- movies, games, music, software– Identity theft – credit cards, checks– Online gambling, child pornography – Copyright infringement
Market for Insurance
oD1
Quantity
S1Price
Q1 Q2
P1
P2
D2
Increase in crime
Rise in demand for insurance
Price and sales increase
o
D1
S 1
S2
P
Q1Q2
P1
P2
Market for jewelry
Quantity
Rise in shop-lifting
Sellers install expensive security equipment
Supply shifts left
Price of jewelry rises
Quantity sold falls
Works like a tax on goods
Cost of security cameras
Burden of crime – who pays the tax? Producers or consumers?
• Depends on who is more price-sensitive
• Less price-sensitive side pays higher share of the extra cost of security equipment
Quantity
Pric
e
Q2 Q1
Elastic and Inelastic Demand
Quantity
Q2 Q1
P2
P1
P2
P1
Price Inelastic Demand
D
D
Price Elastic
Demand
Elasticity = percentage change in Q for a 1% change in P
Demand price inelastic
P
Qd0
Steep Curve:DemandRelativelyInelastic
1. Few close substitutes2. The good is a necessity3. Small part of buyer’s budget4. Short time period 5. Addiction
Demand price elastic
P
Qd
Flat Curve:DemandRelativelyElastic
0
1. Many close substitutes2. The good is a luxury3. Large part of a buyer’s budget4. Long period of time
Extreme Cases
Perfectly Inelastic Demand
P
0
D1
Elasticity = 0
Q
No matter how much price changes, consumers purchase the same amount of the good.
Example: Insulin, addictive substance
PRICE ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY
Es=
Percentage change in quantitysupplied of good X
Percentage change in the price of good X
• More elastic supply means firms can change supply in larger quantities when price changes.– Beach-front land supply is inelastic.– Books, cars, manufactured goods are elastic.– Supply is more elastic in the long run
• Anything that can affect a firms ability to change production easily affects the elasticity of supply.
Extreme Cases
Perfectly Inelastic SupplyP
0
S
Elasticity = 0
Q
No matter how much price changes, fixed quantity is available for sale.
Example: Picasso paintings, land
Po
Pm
P
Q
D1
Qo
D2
An increase indemand with inelastic supplycauses… large increase in price
Sm
Po
P
Q
D1
Qo
D2
PL
An increase indemand with elastic supply- Smaller price increase
SL
QL
Quantity
Pric
e
Q*
PS
PB
Who will pay the tax, buyers or sellers?
QuantityQ*
P*
PS
P*PB
Inelastic Demand
D
D
S S
Elastic Demand
Part of taxpaid by buyers
Part of taxpaid by sellers
Inelastic demand: higher share of taxes passed on to buyers via higher prices
Elastic demand: higher share of taxes is paid by seller
Crime against persons
• Murder– Rational and “passion”
• Aggravated assault (severe body injury)• Rape
– Most are planned
• Annual Causes of Death in the United StatesFrom www.drugwarfacts.org
Intent important to an understanding of the Intent important to an understanding of the dynamic process leading to deathdynamic process leading to death
Confrontationand Choice
Intent Outcome
KILL(Premeditated Success - Homicideor 1st degreemurder) Failure - Assault
INJURE Success - Assault(Assault)
Failure - No Injury Threaten Homicide 2nd
or Manslaughter Could escalate to one of aboveExcept for 1st degree Murder, the path is Except for 1st degree Murder, the path is
unclear - can be uncertain until the very end - may change in the processunclear - can be uncertain until the very end - may change in the process
Capital punishment• To deter potential murderers
– Except murders of passion or under influence – Irrational : No cost – benefit analysis applied
• Trials that involve death penalty are more expensive – $300K - over $1million– Some trial cost as much as it costs to lock up criminal
for 40 years
• Inequality: not everyone can afford a competent lawyer
• Mistakes
Expenses for death penalty trials• Expenses of capitally-prosecuted cases since 1978 cost Maryland taxpayers
$186 million, or $37.2 million for each of the state’s 5 executions since the state reenacted the death penalty
• average cost to Maryland taxpayers for reaching a single death sentence is $3 million, or $1.9 million more than the cost of a non-death penalty case. – This includes investigation, trial, appeals, and incarceration costs
• Average cost of defending a trial in a federal death case is $620,932, or 8 times that of a federal murder case in which the death penalty is not sought
• Defendants with low representation costs were more than twice as likely to receive a death sentence– Defendants with less than $320,000 in terms of representation costs (the
bottom 1/3 of federal capital trials) had a 44% chance of receiving a death sentence at trial
– defendants whose representation costs were higher than $320,000 (the remaining 2/3 of federal capital trials) had 19% chance of being sentenced to death.
• References to studies quoted are listed on www.deathpenaltyinfo.org
France was thelast WesternEuropean Countryto abandon the death Penalty in1977
What purpose did the execution serve?
• Video of Saddam Hussein’s execution http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7532034279766935521
• Deterrence?
• Detention? No
• Rehabilitation? No
• Retribution?
Execution Witness Area
Execution Chamber
GasChamber
1976SupremeCourtReinstates DeathPenalty
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Peak to Peak: 50 years
Executions in the US 1930-2007
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs
Peak to Peak: About 65 years
U.S.
Clearance Ratio, US 1976-2005
Why are so few murderers who receive the death sentence executed?
• FBI's Uniform Crime Report (UCR) & Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) :
• 1 execution for every 1600 murders, or 0.06% • Time on death row : > 10 years
Death sentence appeases the proponents.Few executions appeases the opponents.
Evidence Against the Death Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a DeterrentPenalty Being a Deterrent
Contiguous StatesMaine: no death penaltyVermont: death penaltyNew Hampshire: death penalty
Little Variation in the Homicide RateSource: Study by Thorsten Sellin in
Hugo Bedau, The Death Penalty in America
www.deathpenaltyinfo.org
Null Hypothesis:Null Hypothesis: The Defendent is INNOCENT.The Defendent is INNOCENT.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.
Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendent is GUILTY.Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendent is GUILTY.
Distribution ofdefendentswho areinnocent
Distribution of guilty defendents
0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt
(Certainty ofInnocence)
A B
ArbitraryStandard Set Innocent,Innocent,
found Guiltyfound GuiltyType I ErrorType I Error
Guilty,Guilty,found Innocentfound InnocentType II ErrorType II Error
S*
• What is more costly for society:• convicting an innocent man?• allowing a guilty man to go free?
Guns and homicide• Gun is the most popular weapon of choice• Choice to Use the Weapon
– Not made in advance in all but Murder 1– The assailant may be unsure of own intent– May only want to threaten– May be provoked to use– May be deterred from using
• Control is all important at this stageGun Violence -> 35,000 deaths per year
Treatment Cost of Gunshot wounds: $63 Billion/yrSelective denial of purchase and possession can reduce the risks of criminal activity by 20-30%
Recession and crime
• Incomes and legal employment fall • Alcohol and drug use rises• Fewer resources for crime prevension as tax
revenues decline
Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938)Brought to attention in Joseph Schumpeter’s BusinessCycles (1939)
NY Recidivism Trends