Crisis Decision MakingPrinciples & Precepts

• Decision—passing of judgment on an issue• Reaction—a response to a stimulus• This class is not focused on reactions• Decisions require:

♦ Knowledge♦ Memory♦ Thought♦ Judgment

Decisions or Reactions?

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How Could it Happen?

Crisis Decision Making

• Fogarty Report recommended Chief of Naval Operations to examine stress factors on human decision making

• TADMUS study began in 1990♦ Lasted 9 years♦ Opted for actual field conditions

rather than laboratory analysis• Studied both individual and team

decision making

TADMUS Study

What do we know about it?• Not entirely a rational process• Brain is a multiprocessor• Requires both short-term and long-term memory• Expertise counts• Perceptual information is not processed

simultaneously• Stressors will impede it• Training will improve it

Human Decision Making

• Rational♦ Logical and methodical process

• Emotional♦ Decision-making “shortcuts”♦ Dispositions, Biases, Prejudices & Paradigms♦ The truth is not enough, we

must also believe it!• Perceptional

♦ How the information is received

Three Factors Present in allHuman Decision Making

• Brain processes visual cuesfaster than auditory

♦ Motion processed before Color

♦ Color is processed before Shape Color yellow is processed

faster than other colors

• Auditory - Frequency processed before direction(Sometimes called the “Cocktail Party Effect”)

Perceptional Priorities

• Smell (brain processing time about 125 msec—detection, not discrimination)

♦ Humans can detect about 10,000 different odors♦ Minty (peppermint) ; Floral (roses) ; Ethereal (pears) ; Musky

(musk) ; Resinous (camphor) ; Foul (rotten eggs) ; Acrid (vinegar)• Hearing (brain processing time about 150 msec)

♦ Frequency before Direction before Recognition • Touch (brain processing time about 155 msec)

♦ Pain, Pressure, Heat• Vision (brain processing time about 190 msec)

♦ Motion, then Color, then Shape• Taste

♦ Sweet; Sour; Bitter; Salty; Umami (savoriness as in aged or fermented foods)

The Human Body is a Transducer!

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• Humans can simultaneously think and do several things

• The brain does not giveequal attention to all tasks

• Two demanding tasks can not be equally shared!

Multi-Processing

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• Brain processes aboutone symbol in ~25 milliseconds

• Maximum retention of about seven items

• Without reinforcement the brain forgets in about 30 seconds.

• Examples include telephone numbers,social security numbers, addresses, names, etc.(323) 526-5541, 123-45-6789, 36-15-45

Limited Short Term Memory

15(chunking)

• Takes much longer to acquire but there is nearly an unlimited capacity and they are retained for life

• Examples include experience, training, and education

• Where meaning is attached

• Where understanding occurs

Long Term Memory

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• Experts work, not by seeking the relevant, but by eliminating the irrelevant• This allows more time to focus on a smaller sample

• They don’t start from scratch, they start where they left off!• They don’t think harder, they just think in more

productive ways.

• A thorough understanding of the issues coupled with a rich repertoire of experiences provides a solid foundation to draw upon

Expertise & Experience Count!

The Dollar Auction!Only 2 Rules!

1. There is no minimum bid, but the maximum is 5¢ over the previous bid

2. The auctioneer agrees to work for the second highest bid

Incremental Decision Making

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• Pattern Recognition

• Anomalies (even subtle)

• Situation Awareness (big picture)

• Understanding of the Way things Work (Mental model of functions, coordination, mechanisms, etc.)

• Opportunities and Improvisations (leverage points)

• Fine Discriminations (Significance missed of/and events that will happen)

• Experiences the Past and the Future (Flying behind the plane, Event Horizon)

• Understands and manages their own limitations♦ Memory, Situation Awareness, Self-Critiques, Strategy Selection

The Power to See the InvisibleCharacteristics of Expertise

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Indexing the BrainThe Gilligan Exercise

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• Once a framework of knowledge is placed in long-term memory only a cue is necessary to retrieve it.

• Information is best stored (memorized) by linking it with other similar information• Ironically, more is better

• Information learned by personal experience is more resilient• Humor, excitement, anger, embarrassment,

sympathy, enjoyment, fear, etc.

• Multiple Information Sources• Incomplete, unreliable, confusing or conflicting

information• Rapidly changing, evolving scenarios• Requirement for coordination• Adverse physical conditions• Time pressure• High work or information load• Auditory overload or interference• Physical threat

Stressors

• As high as 78% improvement in TADMUS experiments

• Automated and ControlledProcessing♦ Software for the Brain

• Stress Inoculation• Recognitional Primed Decision-making

♦ Pattern Recognition♦ Pattern Correction♦ Pattern Completion

Training Works!

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• RPD Model is descriptive, not prescriptive♦ You can’t decide to use it, you can’t avoid using it

• Expertise can’t be trained, it must be learned!♦ Some things have to be learned but can’t be taught!♦ Engage in deliberate practice♦ Compile an extensive experience bank♦ Obtain feedback that is accurate, diagnostic and reasonably

timely♦ Enrich experiences by reviewing prior experiences to derive

new insights and lessons

• There’s nothing more practical than a good theory.(Scientific Adage)

Training Expertise

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So what are the Implications?