Thinking about our Thinking;A Critical Thinking Seminar

Mr. David MillerDAU-MW13-14 June 2017

We work in a VUCA environment

Complexity

Multiple key decision factors

Volatility

Rate of change

Ambiguity

Lack of clarity about meaning

of an event

Uncertainty

Unclear about the presentHo

w w

ell c

an y

ou p

redi

ct th

eO

utco

me

of y

our a

ctio

ns?

How much do you know about the situation?

8 hours of sleep is a dream for many of us

Organizations seem to be in “crisis mode” all the time

Acquisition personnel are increasingly being stressed out

We work in a VUCA environment

Paperwork

Counterfeit Parts found

Success in a VUCA environment requires…

Sometimes our thinking leads us to believe things that aren’t true or do things that don’t make any sense…

Not solving these problems leads to…

USS Ford “…a textbook example of how not to build a ship.”USN Sec Malbus Oct 2016

Seminar Objectives

• Get us thinking about our thinking

• Gain awareness of our thinking foibles

• Introduce a framework that improves our thinking

Time

Th

ink

ing

KSA

s

• Our ability to understand and solve VUCA issues directly correlated to our thinking KSAs

• Thinking KSA improvements directly correlate to job performance

The state of our thinking

Time (experience)

Th

ink

ing

KSA

sTo Be

Where you could beReasons for the gap:• Lack of thinking skills• Have thinking skills, but not the disposition to use

those skills• Have thinking skills and disposition, but lack

background knowledge of subject• Have thinking skills, disposition, and domain

knowledge, but don’t have the time…

As Is

The “Do Nothing” Solution

Critical Thinking Definition

“Reasonable reflective thinking aimed at deciding what to believe or

what to do”-Robert Ennis

Define Critical Thinking

Four influences that compromise the quality of our thinking

Emotions

Two Modes of Thinking

System 2 Thinking

System 1 Thinking

IntuitiveAc

ts o

n us

• Substitutes easy questions for hard questions

• Believes things that are easy to believe

• Operates using habits

DeliberateW

e ac

t on

it

• Thinks through the issue but burns a lot of glucose along the way

How do I leverage both systems of

thinking?

Increase PerformanceSimple & Repeatable

Creates healthy habits

Put our thinking to the T-E-S-T

• Translate the problem, opportunity or idea into a short statement or Topic

• Examine your reasoning through the prism of thinking Elements

• Evaluate the quality of your reasoning using universal Standards

• Train to improve your thinking dispositions

Disposition

Topic of Interest

• What you want to think about

• Characteristics of a topic:• Normally a noun• Clearly bounds a defined topic or issue• You have genuine interest in delving “deeper”• Believe a better understanding is achievable • Necessary to garner advocacy or consensus in a group

EST

Eight Elements of Reasoning

T ST

Evaluating the Quality of our Reasoning –Intellectual StandardsStandard Description

Clarity Requiring elaboration, examples and illustrations

Accuracy Verifying a claim is true or testable

Precision Being specific, providing details and being exact in your explanation

Relevance Related to the issue and helps to address any questions related to the issue

Depth Identifying what makes the problem complex and detailing what needs to be done to handle it

Breadth Including all appropriate perspectives are included and the range of people impacted by the issue

Significance Determination of the most important problem to consider or the central idea

Fairness Acknowledging and removing personal biases from the analysis and being judicious in your work

Logic/ Reasoning Show your thinking in a way that makes sense to others.

TE T

Train to be better Critical Thinkers (Seven Dispositions)*

*California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory

Truth-seeking Open-Minded Analytical Systematic

Inquisitiveness ConfidenceJudicious

When one is disposed to think critically they are said to have a, “…consistent internal motivation to use critical thinking skills to decide what to believe and what to do.” TES

Our most powerful thinking tool?

Proposed Changes to Civilian Retirement Benefits will have major impacts to current feds and retirees- Increase employee contributions by 1 percent- Eliminate COLA

Putting our thinking to the T-E-S-T• Topic: Civilian Retirement Benefits• Elements

– Purpose: Broader understanding– Information: Eliminate COLA for current

and future employees, Increase employee contributions by 1 percent

– Questions: Are DoD civilians impacted?– Points of View: Taxpayer, new

employee, near retirement employee, etc

– Conclusions: Reduce DoD costs on back of civilian, equalizing benefits with private sector

– Assumptions: Civilian retirement system is the gold standard, rational minds prevail, Changes will not impact quality of life, grandfather older civilians

– Consequences: I need to look for another job, change life style, loss of quality civil servants

• Standards– Clarity: How impact retired civilians?– Accuracy: Is it true civil servants have a

“Cadillac” plan?– Relevancy: How are tax cuts to the rich

relevant? – Logic: Does 1 percent cut equate to a

“greatly reduced retirement benefit”?– Fairminded: Did I consider other points

of view?– Depth, Breadth, Precision– Significance: Why “grandfather”?

• Train (Reflection)– Judiciously seek the Truth– Open mind & Inquisitive– Analytical and Systematic– Confidence in Reasoning

Reasonable reflective thinking aimed at deciding what to believe or what to do

Summary

• Think about our thinking!• System I thinking is our preferred approach• System II thinking yields more reasoned

results• T-E-S-T is a simple tool to improve our

thinking• What are your Takeaways?

• One day workshop• Deep dive into practical application

– Obstacles to great thinking– Testing for great thinking

• Team exercises to solidify concepts• Optional-organizational specific application(s)