Markets and Products Analysis

INVESTMENT PORTOFOLIO ANALYSIS DIVISION

Cross Asset

Technical Vista

June, 2015

Important Disclaimer in page 2

1

2

Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we

make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of

such information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a

recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or

subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary

capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any investment,

financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein.

Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions

expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial

instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily

indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation

of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any agreement or contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates. In addition, because

this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms, and therefore this communication in and of itself

should not form the basis for any investment decision.

Financial instruments that may be discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an

independent assessment of the appropriateness of any transaction in light of their own objectives and circumstances, including

the possible risks and benefits of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the recipient will

be deemed to represent that they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to

understand the risks involved in any purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein. Any duplication, copy, reprint

or transmission of this document is prohibited without the prior written permition of the issuer.

3

Risk Sentiment

Source: Bloomberg, Markets and Products Analysis

Risk off sentiment is evident in the Eurozone. The increase of Eurozone government bond yields has been negative for risk

taking. Greek issue remains undecided.

In the short term, event risk for Eurozone stock markets is high (both to the downside & to the upside), linked with the

evolution of the Greek issue.

US stock market is consolidating and probably entering corrective mood. The stronger likelihood that the Fed will hike the

benchmark rate in September, has contributed to some profit taking in US market.

Monetary easing bias by some major Central Banks, may be supportive for risk sentiment in the future.

-0.65

-0.55

-0.45

-0.35

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

10

/11

12

/11

2/1

2

4/1

2

6/1

2

8/1

2

10

/12

12

/12

2/1

3

4/1

3

6/1

3

8/1

3

10

/13

12

/13

2/1

4

4/1

4

6/1

4

8/1

4

10

/14

12

/14

2/1

5

4/1

5

6/1

5

US Risk Sentiment Index

Risk Aversion

Risk Appetite

-0.65

-0.55

-0.45

-0.35

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

10

/11

12

/11

2/1

2

4/1

2

6/1

2

8/1

2

10

/12

12

/12

2/1

3

4/1

3

6/1

3

8/1

3

10

/13

12

/13

2/1

4

4/1

4

6/1

4

8/1

4

10

/14

12

/14

2/1

5

4/1

5

6/1

5

Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index

Risk Aversion

Risk Appetite

4

Correlation Matrix

Source: Markets and Products Analysis, Bloomberg

EUR/USD is positively correlated with German 10-year government bond yield.

EUR/USD is negatively correlated with Eurozone stock markets.

USD/JPY exhibits positive correlation with US 2-year government bond yield.

Commodities index remains strongly negatively correlated with DXY.

Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m

DXY 0.1001 -0.2144 0.2999 0.3387 -0.1607 -0.3701 -0.4612 -0.5164 -0.3435 -0.3672 -0.2404 -0.4050 -0.2631 -0.0963 -0.2121 0.1276

EUR/USD -0.1155 0.2664 -0.3200 -0.3236 0.1216 0.3798 0.3945 0.4802 0.2819 0.3389 0.1780 0.3770 0.3140 0.0754 0.2161 -0.1644

USD/JPY -0.0079 -0.0505 0.0745 0.2567 -0.2555 -0.1814 -0.4158 -0.4103 -0.4695 -0.5097 -0.2321 -0.3395 -0.2841 -0.0662 -0.1253 0.0964

GBP/USD 0.0020 0.2554 -0.1287 -0.1675 0.2440 0.3577 0.3394 0.3837 0.2499 0.3197 0.1658 0.2935 0.1511 -0.0766 0.0822 -0.1733

USD/CHF 0.2067 -0.0744 0.3782 0.3266 0.0296 -0.2406 -0.3942 -0.4649 -0.3390 -0.4152 -0.2024 -0.3356 -0.2274 -0.1236 -0.2429 0.1486

EUR/CHF 0.1678 0.2157 0.0694 0.0076 0.2875 0.2578 0.0579 0.0389 -0.0573 -0.1283 -0.0050 0.0822 0.1634 -0.0888 -0.0433 -0.0450

EUR/GBP -0.1296 0.1114 -0.2617 -0.2638 -0.0556 0.1593 0.1786 0.2619 0.1187 0.1353 0.0680 0.2117 0.2359 0.1668 0.1785 -0.0560

EUR/JPY -0.1496 0.3128 -0.3516 -0.2742 -0.0258 0.3891 0.2018 0.3986 0.0167 0.1744 0.0547 0.3032 0.1908 0.0570 0.1777 -0.1651

Bund Fut. 0.0450 0.0739 0.0678 0.2548 -0.0144 0.1189 -0.2789 -0.0819 -0.0435 0.1023 -0.1801 -0.1282 -0.3943 -0.1980 -0.3178 -0.3962

Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m

DXY 0.3148 0.3479 0.0043 0.2001 -0.3350 -0.1871 -0.4166 -0.2284 -0.1025 0.0215 -0.1961 -0.0455 -0.0121 0.0436 -0.0085 0.1607

EUR/USD -0.2137 -0.3952 0.0529 -0.2390 0.3982 0.1534 0.4821 0.1905 0.0837 -0.0739 0.1948 -0.0012 0.0118 -0.0720 0.0028 -0.1993

USD/JPY 0.2880 0.4772 0.0316 0.3785 -0.0642 0.1474 -0.2073 0.1222 -0.0074 0.2670 -0.0487 0.1539 -0.0370 0.0965 -0.0468 0.2337

GBP/USD -0.3779 -0.4876 -0.0785 -0.3141 0.1219 -0.0473 0.2367 -0.0716 0.2199 -0.0451 0.1949 0.0318 -0.0362 -0.1170 -0.0003 -0.1419

USD/CHF 0.3187 0.3941 0.0938 0.2726 -0.3281 -0.0415 -0.3068 -0.1311 0.0646 0.1707 -0.0893 0.0498 -0.0404 -0.0048 -0.0267 0.1648

EUR/CHF 0.1277 -0.0059 0.2320 0.0520 0.1560 0.1994 0.3258 0.0988 0.2463 0.1644 0.1884 0.0774 -0.0696 -0.1478 -0.0449 -0.0587

EUR/GBP 0.0566 -0.0557 0.1271 -0.0157 0.3672 0.2578 0.3621 0.3214 -0.0865 -0.0588 0.0634 -0.0372 0.0430 0.0210 0.0069 -0.1210

EUR/JPY -0.0671 -0.2635 0.0883 -0.1162 0.4633 0.2620 0.4646 0.2924 0.0992 0.0366 0.2115 0.0710 -0.0110 -0.0404 -0.0281 -0.1282

Bund Fut. -0.2457 -0.1352 -0.5207 -0.2686 -0.6138 -0.5035 -0.9475 -0.7178 -0.4767 -0.3304 -0.6857 -0.4921 -0.0191 -0.0898 -0.1484 -0.2585

- 1 Significant negative correlation 1 Significant positive correlation

60 Days (Percentage Change) Correlation Matrix

Equity Index Commodities Risk Aversion Index

2Y GE 10Y GE 2Y UK

GOLD WTI RA EU RA US

10Y UK 2Y JN 10Y JN

S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC World CRB

Government Bonds (Change)

2Y US 10Y US

5

Technical Analysis Matrix

Source: Markets and Products Analysis, Bloomberg

Weekly

%

Monthly

%

% Year to

DateMonthly Trend Upper Lower

MACD Signal

(Daily)

Overbought/

Oversold

Singal (Daily)

MA's

crossover

signal

3-Month Trend

EUR/USD -0.53 -0.45 -6.89 Range Trading 1.1431 1.0839 Up Signal No Signal Up Downtrend

GBP/USD 0.72 -0.07 0.42 Range Trading 1.5706 1.5175 Up Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

EUR/GBP -1.26 -0.38 -7.83 Range Trading 0.7388 0.7035 Down Signal No Signal Down Downtrend

USD/JPY -0.81 -2.98 -3.15 Uptrend Down Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

EUR/JPY 0.27 2.56 -3.98 Uptrend Down Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

USD/CHF 0.79 0.23 7.58 Range Trading 0.9519 0.9218 Down Signal No Signal Down Downtrend

EUR/CHF -1.34 -0.69 -15.56 Range Trading 1.0563 1.0299 Up Signal No Signal Up Downtrend

Germany Dax -2.11 -3.66 12.47 Downtrend Down Signal No Signal Down Range Trading

Stoxx Europe 600 -1.60 -3.00 12.26 Downtrend Down Signal No Signal Down Range Trading

US S&P 500 0.78 -1.25 1.82 Downtrend Down Signal No Signal Up Range Trading

US Nasdaq 0.83 0.14 6.75 Range Trading 5,118 5,017 Down Signal No Signal Up Range Trading

Japan Nikkei 0.86 2.46 15.86 Range Trading 20,699 20,035 Down Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

HK Hang Seng 0.50 -3.60 13.62 Range Trading 28,265 26,567 Down Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

China Shanghai Composite -2.71 15.30 53.58 Downtrend Down Signal No Signal Up Uptrend

UK FTSE 100 -1.84 -3.68 2.11 Downtrend Down Signal Oversold Down Range Trading

NYMEX WTI Crude -2.15 0.70 12.84 Range Trading 61.84 57.00 Down Signal No Signal Up Downtrend

ICE Brent Crude -2.94 -4.55 11.23 Range Trading 66.80 61.63 Down Signal No Signal Up Downtrend

Spot Gold -0.52 -3.59 -0.41 Range Trading 1,211 1,167 Down Signal No Signal Down Range Trading

LME 3M Copper -3.60 -10.37 -8.73 Downtrend Down Signal Oversold Down Downtrend

LME 3M Aluminium -2.46 -7.88 -7.85 Downtrend Down Signal Oversold Down Downtrend

10Y Bund Future 1.66 -1.37 -2.84 Downtrend Up Signal No Signal Down Downtrend

10Y Gilt Future 0.85 -0.61 -2.23 Range Trading 118.70 115.37 Up Signal No Signal Down Downtrend

10Y Treasury Future 0.88 -1.12 -0.16 Downtrend Up Signal No Signal Down Range Trading

FX

Eq

uit

y I

nd

exes

Co

mm

od

itie

sG

ov

Bo

nd

s

Asset Classes Technical Analysis Matrix

Asset Class

6

Trend Mapping

Source: Markets & Products Analysis, Bloomberg, *Standardized divergence from 21-day moving average this month vs prior 1-month.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY EUR/CHF

German 10-Year Bund

US 10-Year Treasury

S&P 500

Gold

WTI

Dax Eurostox600

Shanghai Comp

FTSE 100

RTS Index

3m Copper

Nikkei

Hang Seng

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

*Tre

nd

th

is m

on

th

*Trend prior 1-Month

Trending Up

Trending Down Reversing Down

Reversing Up

Upside bias for GBP/USD, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY is still in place.

Major European equity indexes remain in downwards trend.

S&P 500 index is reversing downwards in the short term.

USD/JPY has broken upwards the tight range trading mode observed until end-May.

7

S&P 500

S&P 500 index posted historic high

(intraday: 2,134.7) on May 20. The index

is currently lower versus the historic high

by almost 1.8% at 2,096 level.

Daily trend indicators (MACD, ADX/DMI)

suggest that the index is probably

entering correction phase in the short

term.

Support for the index at the area of

2,072 (9/6/15 low), at the area of 2,048

(200 days MA) and at 2,015 (Fibonacci

retracement 38.2%: 1,820.7-2,134.7).

Looking at the weekly chart, the index

appears in range trading for the 3-month

horizon. The lower bound of the weekly

Bollinger Bands is at the area of 2,030,

while the upper bound is placed at the

area of 2,150.

Despite short term correction and mid

term range trading, long term upwards

trend may have not reversed, as

suggested by monthly trend indicators

(ADX, DMI).

8

DAX

DAX index is currently at almost

11% lower versus the historic high of

10/4/15.

Trend indicators with daily data

suggest possible continuation of the

corrective mood. No oversold

conditions formed yet. Support is

placed at the area of 10,500 (200 days

MA), at the area of 10,370

(retracement 50%: 8,355-12,390) and

at the area of 9,897 (Fibonacci

retracement 61.8%: 8,355-12,390 and

20% lower from the high of 10/4/15).

In case, the support area of 10,370-

10,500 holds, the index can resume

upwards trend in the long term, as

suggested by monthly data trend

indicators. Resistance at the area of

12,390 (historic high).

9

Nikkei

Nikkei index is trending upwards in the

mid-term (3-month time horizon), as

suggested by weekly trend indicators.

Resistance is placed at the area of

20,655 (high of 28/5/15) and at

20,833.2 (12/4/2000 high).

In case, some consolidation takes

place in the short term, support for the

index is placed at the area of 19,930

(55 days MA and 19/5/15 low) and at

19,468 (12/5/15 low).

In the mid to long term, resistance is

placed at the area of 22,485 (Fibonacci

retracement 76.4%: 27,270.33-

6,994.9).

10

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is into range trading mode

($1.08 - $1.15) in the short term.

Daily MACD signal and daily MA’s

crossover signal (21 vs. 55 DMA)

indicate possible upwards move in

the short term.

Significant resistance for the euro at

the area of $1.1500 (50%

retracement: $1.2570 - $1.0458 and

15/5/15 high) and at $1.1720 (200

DMA).

Support is placed at the area of

$1.1000 (short term support trend

line) and at $1.0800 (27/5/15 low and

61.8% Fibonacci retracement:

$1.0458 - $1.1467).

In the medium term downwards trend

remains intact. Significant support in

medium term is found at the area of

$1.00 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement:

$0.8230-$1.6038 and support

downwards trend channel).

11

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

Looking at the weekly chart, USD/JPY is

probably trending higher, with no

overbought conditions formed yet.

Resistance is placed at the area of

¥125.86 (5/6/15 high), at ¥126.21

(20/5/02 high) and at ¥128.19 (17/5/02

high).

Support is found at the area of ¥120.60-

¥121.00 (low of 20/5/15, 22/5/15 and 55

days MA) and at ¥119.83 (19/5/15 low).

EUR/JPY is now consolidating, after

breaking the 200 days MA to the upside

on June 2. Resistance for EUR/JPY is

placed at the area of ¥140.75 (Fibonacci

retracement 61.8%: ¥149.78- ¥126.10)

and at ¥142.78 (6/1/15 high). Further

resistance at ¥144.19 (Fibonacci

retracement 76.4%: ¥149.78- ¥126.10).

Support is placed at the area of ¥137.29

(200 days MA) and at the area of

¥134.76 (28/5/15 low).

12

German 10-Year Government Bond Yield

German 10-Year government bond

yield is reacting upwards after

registering new historic low (0.05%)

on April 17. Strong medium term

downwards trend seems to be over.

Significant resistance levels are

found at the area of 1.07% (10/6/15

high & 50% retracement: 2.09% -

0.05%) and at 1.31% (61.8%

Fibonacci retracement: 2.09% -

0.05%).

In the short term some negative bias

is identified, mainly due to profit

taking.

Support is placed at the area of

0.60% (200 DMA) and at 0.474%

(1/6/15 low).

13

Spot Gold

Spot gold price is into consolidation

mode ($1,160 - $1,220). Some bias

to the downside is observed in the

short term, as 21-DMA crossed

downwards the 55-DMA in June 10.

Significant support is placed at the

area of $1,160/oz (5/6/15 low,

medium term support trend line &

lower 21-Day Bollinger band) and at

$1,143/oz (17/3/15 low).

Resistance is found at $1,207/oz

(200 DMA) and at the area of

$1,233/oz (18/5/15 high).

In the medium term gold price is in

range trading phase.

Contact

210-3282791 marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos panos.remoundos@alpha.gr Maria Koutouzi maria.koutouzi@alpha.gr Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA ioannis.kouravelos@alpha.gr Konstantinos Anathreptaκis konstantinos.anathreptakis@alpha.gr

14