crude pricing breakfast briefing john homan sr. marketing and
TRANSCRIPT
John Homan Sr. Marketing and Logistics Representative
Crude pricing breakfast briefing
February 27th, 2013
Forward-looking statements advisory
This Laricina Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, statements concerning estimates of exploitable original-bitumen-in-place, predicted recovery factors, steam-to-oil ratios and well production rates, estimated recoverable resources as defined below, expected regulatory filing, review and approval dates, construction and start-up timelines and schedules, company project potential production volumes as well as comparisons to other projects, statements relating to the continued overall advancement of the Company’s projects, comparisons of recoverable resources to other oil sands projects, estimated relative supply costs, potential cost reductions, recovery and production increases resulting from the application of new technology and recovery schemes, estimates of carbon sequestration capacity, costs for carbon capture and sequestration and possible implementation schedule for carbon capture and sequestration processes or related emissions mitigation or reduction scheme and other statements which are not historical facts. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements as there can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or expectations upon which they are based will occur. By their nature forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks and uncertainties, both generally and specific, that contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Although the Company believes that the expectations represented by such forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct and, accordingly that actual results will be consistent with the forward-looking statements. Some of the risks and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation include, but are not limited to geological conditions relating to the Company’s properties, the impact of regulatory changes especially as such relate to royalties, taxation and environmental changes, the impact of technology on operations and processes and the performance of new technology expected to be applied or utilized by the Company; labour shortages; supply and demand metrics for oil and natural gas; the impact of pipeline capacity, upgrading capacity and refinery demand; general economic business and market conditions and such other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the reports and filings made with security regulatory authorities, contained in other disclosure documents or otherwise provided by the Company. Furthermore the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof. Unless required by law the Company does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this advisory and disclaimer.
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WTI/Brent – Historical Pricing
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
$US/bbl
Efficient market Inefficient market
Pipeline constraints
Pricing data sourced from the EIA, www.eia.gov
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Cushing flows • Growing production along
with deepening market contango directed more flow to Cushing
• Prior to the Seaway reversal Exxon’s Pegasus pipeline was the only route to clear the Midwest
• WTI/LLS spread began to
support increased barge flow (Midwest to USGC)
• Meanwhile falling North Sea production and geopolitical tension is supporting Brent
ExxonMobil Pegasus
Source: wwww.exxonmobilepipeline.com
Seaway reversal start-up
May-2012 (150k bpd)
Cushing flows – Accessing the USGC
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(000's bpd)Flows in to Cushing
assume KS @ <80k bpd 1,073Plus: area production 230
1,303
Less: area refining 450
Flows out of Cushing713
Seaway Reversal - 400
Net Cushing flows Balanced/Drawing
TransCananda GC - 550
Net Cushing flows Drawing
Potential Cushing supply overhang 140
Post 2013 Cushing relief
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USGC light oil: from a demand to a supply driven market
MSW @ EDMT
WTI @ Cushing
LLS @ St. James
Brent
*Medium sour grades are backed out as refiners need heavier crude to balance their crude slate
MSW/WTI -$6.00
WTI/LLS -$4.00
LLS/Brent -$3.00
WTI/Brent -$7.00
Implied spreads ($/bbl)Supply Driven
Pricing Outlook
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• Short term: – Pipeline capacity issues will maintain high downside price volatility – Heavy conversion projects in PADD II lay the foundation for stronger heavy differentials
• Medium term: – Increased production from tight oil plays put downward pressure on light sweet oil – Pipeline access to the USGC narrows the light/heavy spread towards $5 - $15/bbl
• Longer term: – USGC becomes the new bottleneck for light oil leading to light exports and a supply
driven market – USGC heavy demand relies more on imports from Canada
• The wild cards are: Better support to differentials sooner then expected from rail/barge take-away capacity Altered refinery slates to take advantage of exploding light sweet production intensifying competition for refinery space while increasing pipeline strains
P x
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+Brent - Forecast $112.50 $105 - $115 $95 - $105 $95 - $105 $95 - $105 $95 - $105WTI/Brent Spread - Forecast -$17.00 -$12.00 -$7.00 -$7.00 -$7.00 -$7.00WTI - Forecast $95.00 $98.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00L/H Differential Forecast 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 15%
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Laricina internal analysis: Vertical axis is Bitumen netback, Horizontal axis is the WTI/Brent spread
~$4 WTI/Brent spread for rail to break even with pipe to EDMT market
All else equal – WCS to Maya arb fully captured
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~$20 WTI/Brent spread for rail to break even with pipe to EDMT market
All else equal – WCS to Maya arb 50% captured
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All else equal – WCS at 30% discount to light sweet, arb fully captured
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All else equal – WCS at 30% discount to light sweet, arb 50% captured
Contact us
Laricina Energy Ltd. 800, 425 – 1st Street SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 3L8 403-750-0810 www.laricinaenergy.com [email protected]
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