crystal goodison & alexis thomas university of...
TRANSCRIPT
Crystal Goodison & Alexis Thomas University of Florida GeoPlan Center
Photo Credits: Susan Stocker, Sun Sentinel
A1A Fort Lauderdale, Hurricane Sandy,
October 2012
FAU’s Research Report (completed Jan 2012)
Comprehensive analysis of SLR projections, studies, models and methodologies used in Florida. Resulting recommendations:
(1) Apply U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) methodology to develop statewide and regional projections of SLR (2) Develop a sketch planning tool to identify potentially vulnerable infrastructure
UF GeoPlan Center Research
* Implement FAU recommendations
*Phase 1: Feb 2012 - Oct 2013, Phase 2: Dec 2013 – August 2015
Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100.
Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.
Florida Department of Transportation, Office of Policy Planning • Maria Cahill, Project Manager
University of Florida GeoPlan Center • Crystal Goodison, Principle Investigator – Phase 2 • Alexis Thomas, Principle Investigator – Phase 1 • Russell Watkins, Ph.D, Co-PI – Phase 1 • Reginald Pierre-Jean, Software Developer • Katherine Norris, GIS Analyst • Sam Palmer, GIS Analyst • Daniel Downing, Web GIS Specialist • Lance Barbour, Systems Administrator
USACE Sea Level Change Projections & Methods
Digital Elevation Model
NOAA Tide Gauge Data & Sea Level Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
199
2
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
210
0
Re
lati
ve S
ea
Le
vel C
ha
ng
e
(Me
ters
)
Year
8724580 - Key West, FL: 2.2 (mm/yr)
USACE High Rate
USACE Intermediate Rate
USACE Low Rate (Current Rate)
USACE Sea Level Change Projections
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
199
2
199
5
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
55
20
60
20
65
20
70
20
75
20
80
20
85
20
90
20
95
210
0
Re
lati
ve S
ea
Le
vel C
ha
ng
e (
Me
ters
)
Year
8724580 - Key West, FL: 2.2 (mm/yr)
USACE High Rate
USACE Intermediate Rate
USACE Low Rate (Current Rate)
2100 5.08 ft
2060 6 – 27 in
22 in
9 in
2030 3 - 10 in
• Hundreds of GIS layers, each representing a SLR Scenario:
Where Scenario =
Region, Year, Projection, Tidal Datum
• Region: statewide or for FDOT District
• Year: decadal intervals, 2040 – 2100
• USACE Projection: (1) low/ historic, (2) intermediate (3) high
• Tidal Datums: MHHW, MHW, MSL, MLW, MLLW
• Model output: Bathtub and hydro-connected inundation
Mapping SLR Inundation: Output Data Layers
Bathtub Inundation
Inundation with Hydro- connectivity filter
SLR Inundation Data Layers
• Intersected inundation layers with
transportation layers: roadways, rails, rail
freight connectors, SIS airports, SIS sea
ports
• Focus on State owned facilities
• Planning horizons: 2040, 2060, 2080, 2100
• Outputs: GIS layers identifying potentially
at-risk transportation facilities w/
approximate miles or area affected/
inundated
Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100.
Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.
Map Viewer
• Visualize areas of inundation and affected infrastructure
• Low technical expertise needed, no GIS software needed
GIS Data Layers
• SLR Inundation Surfaces & Affected Infrastructure layers
• GIS Software and intermediate GIS expertise needed
SLR Inundation Surface Calculator
• Create custom inundation layers
• Intermediate/ Advanced technical/ GIS expertise needed
View animation of projected inundation over time periods (2040-2100)
Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool
Map Viewers available by FDOT District (7 districts in FL)
View transportation facilities potentially exposed to inundation various SLR scenarios.
Available transportation layers by scenario
Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool
View details about affected facilities/ infrastructure under various SLR scenarios
Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool
Currently supported on ArcMap 10.1 and 10.2.2, requires Spatial Analyst
Inputs: • NOAA tide gauge data • USACE curve • Year (decade 2020-2100) • Tidal Datum • DEM Outputs • Bathtub model • Hydro-connectivity filter • Vector & Raster formats
Data Enhancements: • Update transportation layers • Add critical facilities • Create bridge deck elevation layer • Add NOAA SLR curves?
Tool Enhancements:
• Map Viewer update
• Improvements to SLR Calculator
Add other inundation risks • Storm surge & inland flooding
http://sls.geoplan.ufl.edu *Map Viewers *GIS Data * ArcMap SLR Calculator
* Reports and supporting documentation
Crystal Goodison
352-392-2351
Related Session:
Friday, Sept. 18, 10:30am – 11:45am
Breakout 27: Integrating Resilience into Existing Management Tools, NAS 120
Applying the Sea-Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool to Enhance the Resilience of Long-Range Transportation Plans: Lessons Learned from Two Florida MPOs