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Redbridge Childcare

Sufficiency AssessmentReport 2011

Section 2Factors affecting

demand

CSA 2011 - Section 2 Factors affecting demand and ability to pay 1

Contents Section 2 Factors affecting demand and ability to pay 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Population of children 3 2.3 Projected changes in the child and young people population 5

2.4 Numbers of vulnerable children 6

2.5 Numbers of children with disabilities 7

2.6 Household type or family composition 10 2.7 Ethnic background 11 2.8 Economic factors 13 2.9 Key messages 21

The full report is available by following the link below : http://www.redbridge.gov.uk/cms/education_and_young_people/pre_school/families_information_direct/is_there_enough_childcare_in_r.aspx


http://www.redbridge.gov.uk/cms/education_and_young_people/pre_school/families_information_direct/is_there_enough_childcare_in_r.aspx

http://www.redbridge.gov.uk/cms/education_and_young_people/pre_school/families_information_direct/is_there_enough_childcare_in_r.aspx

Section 2 Factors affecting demand and ability to pay 2.1 Introduction

Redbridge is an outer London borough of North East London, local to both Docklands and the City. It has a diverse demographic structure with wealthy areas containing pockets of deprivation in the West and North and inner city characteristics in the south. Redbridge has a majority white population with an increasing black and minority ethnic population among younger age groups. It is placed in the most deprived 50% of all local authorities in England, ranking 143 out of 354 districts in terms of deprivation.

Redbridge is the 6th youngest borough in London, with nearly 22% of its population under the age of 16. According to the latest child benefit data, in August 2009, there were 67,825 children in Redbridge, living in 36,650 families. Over 7,360 (20%) of families in Redbridge had three or more children.

This chapter looks at the factors affecting demand and ability to pay which include: • Child population trends such as where the local child population is within the

borough and how it is changing over time • Risk factors related to child poverty such as numbers of vulnerable children, measures

of deprivation, unemployment and economic inactivity rates • Labour market data such as employment status, income earned, travel to work and

number of hours worked • Ethnic background of families that relate to child poverty, possible inequitable take

up and preferences for childcare • Children with disabilities that relate to child poverty and specific needs which may

result in additional barriers to finding suitable childcare • Take up of tax credits that make childcare more affordable

2.2 Population of children

As 2001 Census data is now out of date, the population of children within the London Borough of Redbridge is based on 2 data sources: • Population estimates from GLA Round Low – 22 January 2009 • Live birth data available from Redbridge Primary Care Trust (PCT)

Data from the GLA population estimates show that North Central Children’s Trust area has the highest estimated number of children (n = 24664 aged 0-17 years) and West CT area (n = 15958 aged 0-17 years) the lowest. A difference of 8706 children aged 0-17 years. South CT area has two wards with the highest estimated number of children overall and in each age group, Loxford (n = 5146 aged 0-17 years) and Clementswood (n = 4027 aged 0-17 years). The number of children living in these wards are significantly higher than elsewhere, for example the Newbury ward in North Central CT area has the third highest number of children aged 0-17 years (n = 3771) but there are 1375 more children living in Loxford ward and 256 in Clementswood.


Wards with the highest estimated number of children aged 0 -17 years are: Loxford, Clementswood, Newbury, Seven Kings, and Valentines. Wards with the highest estimated number of children under 5 years are: Loxford, Clementswood, Seven Kings, Valentines, Aldborough and Newbury. Wards with the highest estimated number of children aged 5-11 years are: Loxford, Clementswood, Newbury, Seven Kings, Hainault and Aldborough. Wards with the highest estimated number of children aged 12-14 years are: Loxford, Newbury, Clementswood, Barkingside and Fairlop.

2.2.1 GLA ward projections for 2011: Round Low 22/1/2009

Children aged 0 - 17 years: 2011

0-

17 y

ears

0-4

year

s

0-2

year

s

3-4

year

s

5-10

yea

rs

5- 8

yea

rs

8-10

yea

rs

11-1

4 ye

ars

11-1

7 ye

ars

North 24664 7944 4711 3232 8051 5562 3807 3739 8670Aldborough 3188 1122 683 439 1007 719 456 451 1059Barkingside 2877 781 436 345 966 642 477 491 1130Cranbrook 2719 897 551 346 819 562 387 408 1003Fairlop 2969 891 506 384 1027 707 494 488 1051Fullwell 2831 854 487 367 944 636 460 459 1033Hainault 3038 989 595 393 1038 706 503 447 1011Newbury 3771 1121 646 475 1201 840 560 603 1449Valentines 3271 1289 806 483 1048 749 471 392 934South 20988 7308 4448 2860 6659 4678 3071 2967 7021Chadwell 2870 884 524 360 914 634 435 468 1072Clementswood 4027 1409 880 530 1241 861 582 571 1377Goodmayes 2710 880 537 344 844 589 393 406 985Loxford 5146 1889 1144 745 1640 1170 739 688 1616Mayfield 2785 867 525 342 922 631 448 421 996Seven Kings 3450 1379 839 540 1097 793 474 413 974West 15958 5201 3102 2099 4423 3628 2093 2368 4683Bridge 2576 926 567 358 817 575 371 367 834Church End 1898 676 415 261 643 445 304 256 579Clayhall 2681 682 392 290 853 575 422 498 1147Monkhams 2012 571 319 252 691 466 338 324 750Roding 2777 1025 623 402 895 638 401 352 858Snaresbrook 1853 609 377 233 614 422 291 261 630Wanstead 2161 713 408 305 727 506 338 310 721REDBRIDGE total 61610 20453 12262 8191 19133 13868 8971 9074 20374

2.2.2 Live births

There were 4692 live births recorded in Redbridge in 2010, a growth of 5.7% since 2008. In 2009 Redbridge ranked 8th out of 19 for the Outer London area in terms of number of live births1. The average national birth rates are much lower with a growth of 1.8% between 2007-2009 and the birth rates fell between 2008-92.

At sub-authority level, South CT area consistently records the largest annual number of live births per year, with 1856 live births in 2010. Its birth rate is growing with a 5.9% increase in the number of live births in 2010 since 2008. North Central had the largest increase in number of live births (7%) since 2008, but the second highest number of live

1 Live births by local authority of usual residence of mother, numbers, 2009, Birth summary tables, England and Wales 2009: 21/07/10, ONS 2 Number of live births 1999-2009, Birth summary tables, England and Wales 2009: 21/07/10, ONS


http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/summarytables.xls

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/summarytables.xls

births (1768) in 2010. West CT area had the lowest number of live births in 2010 (n = 1069) and a 3.3% growth rate since 2008.

This increase has a direct impact on the demand for and provision of childcare places within the Borough, particularly in South and North Central CT areas.

Source: Redbridge PCT, January 2011

2.3 Projected changes in the child and young people population

Source: GLA population estimates Round Low – 22 January 2009

Based on 2009 government generated population projections, the 0-17 years population in Redbridge is expected to grow by 4.1% between 2011-2014 (see table below) from 61610 to 64166 children. South CT area has the greatest projected growth in child population, with an increase of 8% from 2011 to 2014. Specifically the estimates predict a growth in the under 5s population in South CT area, whilst North and West CT area show evidence of an ageing population with predicted decreases in the under 5 years population. This suggests that demand in North and West CT area may diminish over time, whilst South CT area will continue to need more places. However the projected


figures are estimates and so are subject to constant updating and revision based on local data. Redbridge will need to continue to monitor the population projections to ensure that the conclusions drawn based on the 2009 figures remain accurate. More up-to-date population data will be made available once findings from the 2011 Census are ready.

Estimated population change in Redbridge: 2011-2014 (%)

Redbridge North South West 0-4 years 0.4 -1.9 5.0 -2.5 3-4 years 0.7 -1.3 4.8 -1.8 5-10 years 12.1 10.5 15.8 9.9

11-14 years 0.8 0.3 5.2 -3.9 0-17 years 4.1 2.8 8.0 1.0

The biggest growth is in the 5-10 year old population in all CT areas, particularly in South CT area. This suggests that there will be a growing need for additional sessional term time out of school care and full-time holiday care places for children aged 5-10 years in the future.

2.4 Numbers of vulnerable children

Redbridge Social Services supply data on the number of vulnerable children, these include Children in Need, Looked After Children and Children with a Child Protection Plan.


The data shows that North Central CT area has both the greatest number and proportion of vulnerable children in the borough (4.5%), followed by South Locality (3.3%) and then West Locality (2.9%). Wards with the most number of vulnerable children, in order of frequency, are: Loxford, Clementswood, Hainault, Seven Kings, Newbury and Fullwell. Wards with the least number of vulnerable children are: Monkhams, Church End, Wanstead, Snaresbrook, Clayhall and Cranbrook.

2.5 Numbers of children with disabilities

There are a number of different sources of data available on children with disabilities living in Redbridge, although none of them are comprehensive. Meanwhile data is based on 4 sources, they are: • Number of children known to the Children with Disabilities team • School Census data on number of children with a statement of SEN • Disability Living Allowance claimants aged 0-17 years • Number of children known to the Aiming High for Disabled Children team

.

Number of Children with Disabilities known to Social Services by age and ward: 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ald

boro

ugh

Bark

ings

ide

Cra

nbro

ok

Fairl

op

Fullw

ell

Hai

naul

t

New

bury

Vale

ntin

es

Cha

dwel

l

Cle

men

tsw

ood

Goo

dmay

es

Loxf

ord

May

field

Seve

n Ki

ngs

Brid

ge

Chu

rch

End

Cla

yhal

l

Mon

kham

s

Rodi

ng

Snar

esb

rook

Wan

stea

d

North Central South West

17+ years

12-16 years

5-11 years

<5 years

The data shows: • North locality has the highest number of children with disabilities known to Social

Services, followed closely by South locality • Proportionately South locality (1.06%) has more children with disabilities than North

(0.96%) • Wards with the highest numbers of children with disabilities known to Social Services

are, in order of frequency, Loxford, Goodmayes, Hainault, Newbury, Seven Kings and Mayfield


Number of children with special educational needs in Redbridge: 2008-2010 2010 2009 2008

Primary 2975 3021 2743 Secondary 2379 2009 1888 Special Schools 1 3 0 Pupil referral unit 0 0 1

Action

Total 5355 5033 4632 Primary 1281 1091 1008 Secondary 1078 876 712 Special Schools 17 8 6 Pupil referral unit 68 61 46

Action+ Total 2444 2036 1772


Statement

Total 1257 1310 1310 Primary 4256 4112 3751 Secondary 3457 2885 2600 Special Schools 18 11 6 Pupil referral unit 68 61 47

SEN but no statement (Action and Action+) Total 7799 7069 6404 Total no. of children with SEN 9056 8379 7718


All pupils on role

Total 48397 47573 46714 % SEN 18.7 17.6 16.5 % Statement 2.6 2.8 2.8

Data from the annual School Census shows that there has been a 2.2% rise since 2008 in the number of pupils with a special educational need, whilst over the same period there has been a 0.2% drop in the number of pupils with a statement. There has also been an increase in the number of pupils with an Action or Action plus, with an additional 723 and 672 pupils on an action or action plus respectively in 2010 compared to 2008.

Most pupils with SEN lived in South CT area wards Loxford, Clementswood and in Hainault ward in North Central CT area, with a few high concentrations in Bridge (West), Roding (West), Fullwell (North Central), Chadwell, Goodmayes and Seven Kings (all South).

In primary schools the most common type of special need is speech, language and communication needs. In secondary schools the most common type of special need is moderate learning difficulty. The table below shows that there are at least 12.2% of pupils3 with special needs deemed severe enough not to be able to access mainstream childcare without additional support, perhaps more dependent on the severity of the behavioural and/or communication difficulty of each individual child.

3 Includes severe learning difficulty, profound and multiple learning difficulty, multi-sensory impairment and autistic spectrum disorder


Percent of SEN Students by Type of Special Need (2010)

All

Pupils Primary Secondary Special Schools

Specific learning difficulty 8.1% 10.4% 8.0% 0.2% Moderate learning difficulty 30.8% 22.0% 43.2% 23.0% Severe learning difficulty 3.6% 1.4% 1.8% 17.0% Profound and multiple learning difficulty 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 14.2% Behaviour, emotion, and social difficulty 21.4% 20.3% 25.3% 12.9% Speech, language, and communication needs 17.4% 27.3% 9.3% 7.5% Hearing impairment 2.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% Visual impairment 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% Multi-sensory Impairment 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Physical Disability 4.3% 5.6% 3.8% 1.5% Autistic Spectrum Disorder 6.4% 4.4% 3.3% 23.7% Other Difficulty/Disability 2.2% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% Source: 2010 School Census

Number of children claiming DLA and known to Aiming High team

Age Disabilities Data Disability Living

Allowance

0 1 2 3

27

4 18

170

5 44 6 62 7 98 8 103 9 116

10 111

520

11 104 12 147 13 130 14 136 15 132

520

16 17

170

18 19

505

Total 1733 1380

Source: Aiming High Team June 2010 and DWP November 2009

The 2010 School Census identified 1270 pupils with disabilities aged 2-18 years attending either a special school or a mainstream school with a statement in Redbridge. In November 2009 1380 children aged 0-17 years were claiming Disability Living Allowance


in Redbridge4. Whilst in 2010 the Aiming High team identified 1733 children with disabilities aged 2-19 years in Redbridge. This suggests that children with disabilities make up between 2 – 3% of the total child population in Redbridge.

2.6 Household type or family composition

Please note that the data source is the 2001 Census (ONS) and does not accurately reflect the situation in 2010, however no other more up-to-date data source could be found.

Ward

All

Ho

use

ho

lds

All

ho

use

ho

lds

wit

h d

epen

den

t ch

ildre

n

Mar

ried

co

up

le

wit

h d

epen

den

t ch

ildre

n

Co

-hab

itin

g

cou

ple

s w

ith

d

epen

den

t ch

ildre

n

Lon

e p

aren

t h

ou

seh

old

s w

ith

d

epen

den

t ch

ildre

n

Oth

er

ho

use

ho

lds

wit

h

dep

end

ent

child

ren

Redbridge 92287 30681 18745 1973 6047 3916

North Central 35651 12106 7183 773 2303 1616

South 25276 9924 5656 501 2120 1451

West 31360 9263 5906 699 1624 849

Wards Aldborough 4430 1509 967 81 287 174

Barkingside 4134 1478 992 64 222 200

Bridge 4659 1485 867 156 340 122

Chadwell 4438 1465 904 141 304 116

Church End 4097 1137 803 109 161 64

Clayhall 4136 1535 1083 49 205 198

Clementswood 3696 1645 912 65 347 321

Cranbrook 4094 1424 858 73 172 321

Fairlop 4332 1369 811 143 294 121

Fullwell 4566 1408 895 102 275 136

Goodmayes 4107 1484 860 71 323 230

Hainault 5001 1410 718 167 402 123

Loxford 4741 2107 1096 95 601 315

Mayfield 4089 1395 915 55 214 211

Monkhams 4153 1061 813 59 110 79

Newbury 4581 1848 1138 73 350 287

Roding 4536 1430 810 142 368 110

Seven Kings 4205 1632 969 74 331 258

Snaresbrook 5197 1030 657 74 212 87

Valentines 4513 1429 804 70 301 254

Wanstead 4582 1400 873 110 228 189 Source: Households with dependent children in Redbridge, Census 2001, ONS

Please note: a dependent child is a person in a household aged 0-15 (whether or not in a family) or a person aged 16-18 who is a full-time student and in a family with parents

4 DWP, Numbers claiming Disability Living Allowance by age and local authority, November 2009


The data shows that whilst North CT area has the greatest number of households with dependent children and lone parent households, South CT area has the greatest percentage of households with dependent children and lone parent households (39.3% and 8.3% respectively, compared to 34% and 6% in North CT area). Wards with the highest percentage of households with dependent children are Loxford, Clementswood, Newbury, Seven Kings and Clayhall. Wards with the highest percentage of lone parent households with dependent children are Loxford, Clementswood, Roding, Seven Kings and Goodmayes.

2.7 Ethnic background

As the 2001 Census figures are now out of date, 2 data sources have been used to calculate the ethnic background of the Redbridge population. They are: • GLA ward projections by ethnicity (2006) • Primary School Census data 2010

The GLA ethnic population projections show that the majority of children aged 0-14 years living in Redbridge are now Asian (46%), with White (33.4%) the next biggest ethnic group, followed by Black (17%). The number of children from black and minority ethnic backgrounds will continue to rise in the future.

Source: GLA 2006 ethnic population projections high- 2008


Source: GLA 2006 ethnic population projections high- 2008

Data from the 2010 primary schools census shows that over half of children at primary school in West CT area come from ethnic groups which have good outcomes in later life, e.g. White British and Indian children. Few White British children go to school in South CT area, in comparison to North Central and West CT areas. The majority of children from ethnic groups which generally report poor outcomes in later life, i.e. Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Black Caribbean and African and Gypsy/Roma children5, go to school in South CT area.

5 How fair is Britain? The First Triennial Review 2010, Equality and Human Rights Commission, October 2010


2.8 Economic factors

2.8.1 Indices of deprivation

The two measures of deprivation which have been used to identify disadvantaged areas within Redbridge are: • Index of multiple deprivation (IMD) • Income directly affecting children index (IDACI) According to the IMD over one fifth (21.4%) of Redbridge’s 159 lower super output areas (LSOAs) are in the bottom 30% of LSOAs nationally. South CT area is the most deprived in the borough with under half (n = 16) of the bottom 30% ranked LSOAs, compared to 13 in North CT area and 5 in West CT area. The most deprived wards according to the IMD are: Clementswood, Loxford, Hainault, Valentines, Goodmayes and Seven Kings.

When the income directly affecting children index (IDACI) is compared to the IMD (see maps below), it shows that children are more likely to be living in poverty in Redbridge than the general population. Over two fifths of Redbridge’s LSOAs (43.4%) are ranked in the bottom 30% nationally according to the Income Directly Affecting Children Index. Over half of the bottom ranked 30% LSOAs (n = 36) are in South CT area, with 27 in North CT area and 9 in West CT area showing that South CT area is more deprived when children are looked at and that there are more pockets of deprivation in the West than were flagged up by the IMD. The most deprived wards remain the same, although the rankings change slightly, namely, Loxford, Clementswood, Hainault, Valentines, Goodmayes and Seven Kings. Redbridge LSOAs ranked in the bottom 30% deprived nationally (IMD, ONS 2007)

Snaresbrook

Church EndRoding

Goodmayes

Clementswood

Seven KingsWanstead Cranbrook

Newbury

Fairlop

Aldborough

Bridge

Hainault

LoxfordMayfield

Valentines

ClayhallBarkingside

Fullwell

Chadwell

Monkhams

Key: The light green areas are the lower super output areas ranked in the bottom 30% nationally


Redbridge LSOAs ranked in the bottom 30% deprived nationally (IDACI, ONS 2007)

Wanstead Cranbrook

Newbury

Roding

Fairlop

Goodmayes

Aldborough

Bridge

Hainault

Loxford

Clementswood

Mayfield

Valentines

Seven Kings

SnaresbrookClayhall

Church End

Barkingside

Fullwell

Chadwell

Monkhams

2.8.2 Economic activity

People who are economically active are either employed or unemployed and actively seeking work. People who are economically inactive may want a job but are not classified as unemployed because they have not sought work in the last 4 weeks nor are they available to start work. It also includes people who do not want a job such as people who have retired early or have chosen to stay home to look after children.

Economic activity

rate (res) % June 2010

Economic activity: Female

(res) % June 2010

Economic activity: Male

(res) % June 2010

London 74.80 67.40 82.20 South East 79.10 72.70 85.70 Redbridge 71.00 62.40 71.00

Source: Annual Population Survey, June 2010; ONS December 2010 - local futures website 10/2/11

Economic activity rates, particularly paid employment, have the biggest impact on the demand for childcare. Redbridge’s overall economic activity rates have increased since 2001 (66.23), with an increase in women’s economic activity rates (58.01 in 2001) and a decrease in men’s (74.80). In comparison to London and the South East, Redbridge’s population has lower rates of economic activity.

Economic activity rates as sub-authority level were only available for 2001 Census data. They show that West CT area has the highest economic activity rates overall (69.69%), for men (77.38%) and women (62.32%). South CT area has the lowest economic activity rates


overall (63.65%), for men (72.67%) and women (54.67%). The gap between West and South CT areas is greatest between women’s economic activity rates. This suggests that there will be a greater need for childcare¸ particularly full day childcare, in West CT area than in South.

Average weekly household total income estimate (£)

The mean gross annual income for those who work in Redbridge is £25,578 compared to £31,802 for those who live in the Borough.6 The average pay in Redbridge is lower than for Outer London and London as a whole, with the average gross weekly income estimate in 2007-8 £771 for Redbridge and £840 for London7. The earnings of employees in the Borough ranks Redbridge 10th in London and, over the past 10 years, there has been a narrowing in the difference between Redbridge and the London average wage.

At sub-authority level there are wide income variations between Children’s Trust areas. The estimated average gross weekly income in 2007-8 is lowest in South CT area (£721.25) and highest in West CT area (£867) - a difference of £145.75 per week7. Internally North Central and West CT areas have a £200 difference between the lowest and highest average incomes in each middle super output area, whilst the difference in South CT area is £130. This variation in earnings increases when the lower and upper limits of each area’s average incomes are taken into account with weekly incomes in North Central CT area ranging from £520 - £930, £710 - £1130 in West and £570 - £890 in South CT area.

Paycheck data provides modelled estimates of gross household income (including investment income and social security benefits). The mean equivalised8 incomes per household at ward level show that Monkhams has the highest income figure of around £45,000 per house hold and Loxford and Clementswood have the lowest figures at around £28,000 per year.

Mean equivalised earnings per household by ward of residence 2009

6 ONS 2009 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 7 Model-based estimates at middle super output area level 2007-8, NeSS Geography Hierarchy, ONS Neighbourhood Statistics 8 Equivalising reflects the notion that a household of five, for example, will need a higher income than a single person to enjoy a comparable standard of living. Paycheck data uses an ‘equivalence value’ for each household, based on the number and age of household members. Equivalised income is then calculated by dividing the actual income by this equivalence value.


2.8.3 Travel to work

To assess the impact of travel to work on the range of childcare hours needed the following 2 data sources have been used: • Average time travelled to work (mins) • Average distance travelled to work Almost two thirds (64.5%) of Redbridge residents work outside the borough9, and there are good transport links to central London compared to within the borough. Overall Redbridge residents take an average of 30 minutes to travel to work each day compared to the national average of 20 minutes10 and to its neighbouring boroughs which impacts on times they need childcare available.

Average time taken to travel to work

Local Authority (mins) Hackney 27 Havering 28 Waltham Forest 29 Redbridge 30 Barking and Dagenham 38

Source: Labour Force Survey 2002-3, ONS, from local futures website Average distance travelled to work

Area Average distance travelled to work (km)

Redbridge 7 North Central CT 7 South CT area 7 West CT area 7

Source: Office for National Statistics April 2001 (UV 80)

Whilst there is no difference in the average distance travelled to work by CT area, wards where people travel the farthest average distance to work are, in order: Clayhall, Hainault, Clementswood, Fairlop and Loxford. Wards where people travel the shortest average distance to work are, in order: Wanstead, Fullwell, Monkhams, Mayfield, Goodmayes and Bridge

2.8.4 Average hours worked

The data shows that Redbridge employees on average work longer hours (37.16) when compared to nationally (31.611). In Redbridge, as nationally, men work more hours per week than women in paid employment. Both men and women work, on average, more hours per week in West CT area, with men working the shortest average number of hours per week in South CT area and for women in North Central CT area.

Wards where men work the longest average working hours are: Monkhams, Sharesbrook, Hainault, Roding and Bridge. Wards where men work the shortest average working hours

9 2001 Census 10 Labour Force Survey 2002-3, ONS, from local futures website 11 Average working hours, Sept-Nov 2010, Labour Market Statistics, Statistical Bulletin, ONS, January 2011


per week are: Loxford, Clementswood, Valentines, Newbury and Goodmayes. Wards where women work the longest average working hours per week are: Snaresbrook, Wanstead, Roding, Valentines, Church End and Cranbrook. Wards were women work the shortest average working hours per week are: Barkingside, Clayhall, Fullwell, Mayfield, Fairlop and Hainault.

Average (mean) hours worked

(Male)

Average (mean) hours worked

(Female)

Total average (mean) hours

worked

Redbridge 41.51 32.8 37.16 North Central 41.45 32.09 36.77 South 40.77 32.66 36.71 West 42.29 33.46 37.88

Source: Office for National Statistics; Average means hours worked KS10 (April01)

2.8.5 Worklessness

The data shows that Redbridge has a lower unemployment rate (3.7%) than nationally (7.9%)12.

At sub authority level the highest levels of worklessness and unemployment are in South CT area, with the highest percentage of dependent children living in workless households. The lowest levels of worklessness and unemployment are in West CT area, and it has the lowest percentage of dependent children living in workless households.

Wards with the highest levels of unemployment, in order, are: Loxford, Valentines, Clementswood, Goodmayes and Seven Kings. Wards with the highest levels of worklessness, in order, are: Hainault, Loxford, Clementswood, Goodmayes and Valentines. Wards with the highest percentage of children living in workless households, in order, are: Loxford, Clementswood, Hainault, Goodmayes and Valentines. Wards with the highest percentage of children aged under 5 years living in workless households, in order, are: Loxford, Hainault, Clementswood, Chadwell and Seven Kings. Wards with the highest percentage of children aged 5-15 years living in workless households, in order, are: Loxford, Clementswood, Hainault, Goodmayes and Valentines.

Unemployment rate %

Dec 2010

Worklessness %

Nov 2009

All dependent children living

on workless benefits (DWP

2007) (%)

Dependent children aged 0-4

years living on workless

benefits (DWP2007)

(%)

Dependent children

aged 5-15 years living on workless

benefits (DWP 2007)

(%)

Redbridge 3.7 11.6 24.0 24.7 23.6 North Central 3.8 12.6 23.7 24.4 23.5 South 4.7 14.1 30.9 31.1 30.7 West 2.7 8.4 13.1 13.3 13.1

Source: Claimant count with rates and proportions, December 2010; Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study, November 2009, ONS – both from Local Knowledge website (February 2011) and Children living in workless households, DWP information directorate (April 2007)

12 Unemployment rate, -Nov 2010, Labour Market Statistics, Statistical Bulletin, ONS, January 2011


2.8.6 Working tax credit take-up

Tax credits aim to help parents pay for childcare. In the 2008 Childcare Sufficiency Assessment, Redbridge identified that it had a low take up of the childcare element of working tax credit compared to estimates by HMRC of families that may be eligible (based the number of families receiving the higher element of Child Tax credit). Following the assessment, a Working Tax Credit (WTC) Strategy Group was set up to address the issue. A range of initiatives were put in place including an information campaign by the Families Information Service (FiND) and advice and support sessions for parents through joint work by Children’s Centres ; Welfare Benefits and HMRC. The take-up of the childcare element of working tax credit in Redbridge has risen from 13% in 2008 to 14.55% in 2010. However, Snapshot data for April 2010 shows that Redbridge still has a lower take-up of the childcare element of working tax credit than the national (18.54%), London Regional (18.38%) and Outer London East and North East (18.62%) averages.

Redbridge’s low take up of tax credits despite increased promotion and support to families to claim may be due to the specific demographic make- up of the authority. Two key characteristics may impact on take up: family size and ethnicity.

Families with large numbers of dependent children are less likely to have both parents in paid employment (which is the basic eligibility criterion for receiving the childcare element of WTC). The childcare element of WTC provides a subsidy for up to 2 children but no additional funding for each child thereafter which is a disincentive for families with more than 2 children who may not be able to make work pay. At the time of the 2001 census Redbridge was ranked as having the 6th largest average household size out of 376 local and unitary authorities. Redbridge has a much higher proportion of children living in poverty in 3 and 4 plus children households (53.7%) than London (48.5%) and England (45.5%). From 2007-2009 the proportion of children in poverty living in households with 4 plus children increased in Redbridge between from 25% to 28%.

Families from Pakistani /Bangladeshi communities are also less likely to have both parents in employment – which may be due to personal and cultural choices regarding work and childcare or barriers to finding employment. In Redbridge in 2009 the highest economic inactivity rates were from Pakistani and Bangladeshi women (61%) and nearly one quarter of economically active Pakistani and Bangladeshi women were unemployed in 200913.

Redbridge has the third highest Pakistani/Bangladeshi community in London after Tower Hamlets and Newham who both also have a low take up of the childcare element of WTC. The low take up of the childcare element of WTC in Redbridge comparative to London and England, may therefore be due in part to these factors rather than to families not claiming from a lack of knowledge.

Continued promotion of tax credits and support to families to claim remains important but working in a co-ordinated way to provide parents with effective support into work is also a priority.

13 ONS Annual Population Survey2009


The % of working families receiving the childcare element of WTC from those working families receiving more than the family element of CTC: 2008-2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep-

08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug

-09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

%

England 18.64 19.23 18.99 18.94 18.73 18.61 18.54 18.54

London Regional Average 19.16 19.58 19.25 18.9 18.67 18.54 18.5 18.38

Redbridge 14.58 13.64 12.77 12.24 12.75 12 12.96 14.55

Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Apr-10

Source: NNELD 100528-Snapshot-data-April10

Please note that data at sub-local authority level is produced several years behind Snapshot data and so is not yet available for 2008.

2.8.7 Economic development plans or projections

Redbridge is influenced by three major regeneration initiatives, the Thames Gateway London Partnership, the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor and the 2012 Olympics Stratford and Lea Valley regeneration. Redbridge is in the Mayor of London priority areas for growth and regeneration and Ilford is identified as an opportunity area in the London Plan.

The Local Development Framework (March 2008) set out 12 core strategies to inform the future built, environmental, social and economic development of the borough over the next 10 years. These include promoting employment growth through the development of commercial opportunities, a public transport network to support it and a minimum of 9050 quality dwellings to meet residents varying requirement between 2007/8 to 2016/17, 50% of which should be affordable. Where large developments generate additional demand appropriate community facilities, including schools and childcare, should be provided to support them.

In the previous CSA it was suggested that to assess the impact of housing development on local child populations and hence childcare provision that 40% of planned homes of two bedrooms or more would have children living in them. However anecdotal evidence of occupancy of recent housing developments suggest that this assumption is wrong, as due to rising housing costs and lack of appropriate housing some families are living in one bedroom accommodation. The forthcoming 2011 Census will identify who is taking up recent housing developments, although this data will not be available at sub-authority level for at least 2 years. Further research in partnership with the Housing department in Redbridge is needed to investigate this issue further. Meanwhile it should be assumed that at least 40% of all planned homes will have children in them when planning community support services.


One thousand seven hundred and thirty-one new houses have been built since 2008, with a further 3472 either under construction or planned between 2010 and 2014. Based on the above assumptions there could be another 1389 families with dependent children moving into the borough. South CT area (n = 864), particularly Clementswood (n = 406) and Loxford (n = 242) wards will have the largest estimated increase in number of families with dependent children putting severe pressure on already stretched local childcare and other community support services.

Completed housing developments since 2008

1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5+ bed Total

Estimated no. of

households with

dependent children

Redbridge 645 915 129 32 10 1,731 692 North Central 182 255 8 2 1 448 179 South 302 444 66 14 3 829 332 West 161 216 55 16 6 454 182 Aldborough 13 9 2 0 0 24 10 Barkingside 27 24 0 0 0 51 20 Bridge 7 8 10 3 0 28 11 Chadwell 13 3 1 0 0 17 7 Church End 108 95 37 9 0 249 100 Clayhall 0 3 0 0 0 3 1 Clementswood 116 116 11 0 0 243 97 Cranbrook 63 36 1 1 1 102 41 Goodmayes 8 9 4 0 0 21 8 Fairlop 3 12 5 1 0 21 8 Fullwell 18 7 0 0 0 25 10 Hainault 4 17 0 0 0 21 8 Loxford 80 131 1 1 0 213 85 Mayfield 26 56 31 13 3 129 52 Monkhams 8 33 4 1 1 47 19 Newbury 26 135 0 0 0 161 64 Roding 30 20 3 2 0 55 22 Seven Kings 59 129 18 0 0 206 82 Snaresbrook 8 56 0 0 3 67 27 Valentines 28 15 0 0 0 43 17 Wanstead 0 1 1 1 2 5 2

Source: Housing Department query: Housing Bedroom Numbers by Tenure Report (Borough and Ward), December 2010


Planned housing developments: 2011-2014

2010-

11 2011-

12 2012-

13 2013-

14 Total

Estimated no. of households with

dependent children

REDBRIDGE 504 758 1130 1080 3472 1389 North Central 209 240 368 147 964 386 South 232 447 639 842 2160 864 West 63 71 123 91 348 139 Aldborough 4 123 146 25 298 119 Barkingside 19 14 4 4 41 16 Bridge 9 8 4 4 25 10 Chadwell 27 68 130 41 266 106 Church End 19 23 42 42 126 50 Clayhall 4 4 24 29 61 24 Clementswood 86 193 244 491 1014 406 Cranbrook 55 37 91 98 281 112 Fairlop 12 19 39 4 74 30 Fullwell 4 4 4 4 16 6 Goodmayes 13 24 11 26 74 30 Hainault 18 16 16 4 54 22 Loxford 98 150 199 159 606 242 Mayfield 4 4 4 4 16 6 Monkhams 4 4 13 4 25 10 Newbury 61 4 19 4 88 35 Roding 7 24 32 4 67 27 Seven Kings 4 8 51 121 184 74 Snaresbrook 10 4 4 4 22 9 Valentines 36 23 49 4 112 45 Wanstead 10 4 4 4 22 9

Source: Housing Department: Housing Trajectory by ward: from Annual Monitoring Report, December 2010

2.9 Key messages

• There are current large child populations and high levels of demand for childcare in North Central and South Children’s Trust areas

• South CT area has the highest birth rate and the under 5s population is expected to

grow by 5% by 2014, increasing the demand for childcare in the future • Population projections suggest that the under 5s population in North Central and

West CT areas is expected to fall by 2014, decreasing the demand for childcare in the future

• Population projections predict that there will be a 12.1% growth in the 5-10 year old

population in Redbridge, particularly in South CT area (15.8%) increasing demand on the current supply of out of school care in the borough

• Children from BME communities are the fastest growing, with Asian/ Asian British

now the largest ethnic group in the under 14 year old population in Redbridge


• The number of children with special educational needs are increasing and there are potentially one in ten children with disabilities who would be unable to access mainstream childcare

• North Central and South CT areas have the highest number of vulnerable children

and children with disabilities who may find it more difficult to access childcare • The child BME population is growing in Redbridge, with the fastest growing child

populations from ethnic groups which may find it more difficult to access childcare living in South CT area

• South CT area is the most deprived, with the most number of lower super output

areas in the bottom 30% nationally for both the IMD and IDACI. It has the lowest economic activity rates in the borough, particularly amongst women and the lowest average weekly income

• North Central CT area covers the largest geographical area and population. Its

demographic characteristics are highly diverse making it difficult to draw conclusions. It is not as deprived as South CT area nor as affluent as West CT area but it contains areas of both great deprivation such as Hainault and relative affluence such as Cranbrook. It would be helpful to divide it up into more logical geographic areas for the continuing assessment of childcare sufficiency.

• Two thirds of Redbridge residents work outside the borough, taking an average of 30

minutes to get to work – this impacts on the hours that childcare is needed.

• Women in West CT area have the highest levels of economic activity, employment and work the longest hours, suggesting an increased demand for childcare and longer hours than other areas within the borough

• Redbridge’s low take up of working tax credit may be due to it demographic

characteristics rather than lack of response to publicity campaigns • Recent and planned housing developments will increase pressure on existing

childcare, particularly in South CT area and it will it will be important to ensure that where possible planning gain14 can be applied to support the provision of early education and childcare as part of a necessary community infrastructure.

• It is essential that the crucial role that early years and childcare provision plays in

economic health and growth is acknowledged and that interventions to support parents into work and to encourage the take up of benefit entitlements are co-ordinated to ensure the most effective use of resources.

14 Planning gain - also known as section 106 agreements – allow local authorities to create an obligation or charge on a developer as part of planning permission to contribute to or pay for necessary community infrastructure expansion. The Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) was brought into force on 6 April 2010 as an alternative means of councils obtaining finance from developers for infrastructure.


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