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Cultural Transformations in the Pre- Hispanic American Southwest Ann Kinzig

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Page 1: Cultural Transformations in the Pre- Hispanic American ...risk.princeton.edu/img/historical_collapse_production/5b_Kinzig.pdf · Good year = above upper threshold Bad year = below

CulturalTransformationsinthePre-HispanicAmericanSouthwestAnnKinzig

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Collaborators • PeggyNelson

• DavidAbbott• MartyAnderies

• MichelleHegmon• BenNelson• JonNorton

• KeithKintigh• JonSandor

• KateSpielman

• KyleBocinsky

• BradButterfield• GrantSnitker

• ColleenStrawhacker

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Hohokam

MesaVerde

Mimbres

Zuni

LaQuemada

Transformations

• Thereweresignificantculturaltransformations(some‘collapses’)throughouttheAmericanSouthwestfrom~AD1100to1450.

• Manyattributethesetransformationstoclimatechange.

• Howmuchwasexogenousclimatechange(‘badluck’)andhowmuchwasendogenous(socialstructures)?

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Answer

• Theredoesn’tseemtobeanyrobustpattern.Sometransformationsaredifficulttoexplain.

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1130

Mimbres‘reorganization’

1150

Hohokamcoalescence

1200

Cibola(Zuni)aggregation

1275

MesaVerdeabandonment

1300

Salinasreorganization

1450

Hohokam‘disappear’

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SocialResilience

Diversity,adaptability,capacitytoinnovate,trust,socialcapital

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SocialResilience

• Degreeofintegration• Degreeofconformity• Physicalsuffering

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Resilience

Arethesetherightmeasuresofsocialresilience?

Mightthemagnitudeofthe‘disturbance’havevariedacrossculturalgroups?

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KyleBocinskySKOPE

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ClimateRisk

Howdowebetterevaluateclimateriskanditsimpactsonsubsistencestrategies?

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Subsistencestrategies

STORAGEOFMAIZE SUPPLEMENTATIONWITHWILD-GATHEREDRESOURCES

SOCIALNETWORKS—ABILITYTOMOVEFOOD,PEOPLE,ETC.

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ClimateRisk

• Wemakenoassumptionsaboutpopulationsize,foodrequirements,acreagefarmed.• Insteadweassumedthatpeopleadaptedtoconditions,anditwasconditionsoutsidetherangeoftheexperienceoftheprevious2-3generationsthatchallengedtheseadaptations.

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StorageShortfallPercentage

Step1:

FocalYear

Previous60Years(~2Generations)

Runningavg.andSDtocreatethresholds

Step2:

FocalYear

0.5SDbelowavg.(createdfrom60yearrunningavg.)

Year-3 Year-2 Year-1

3-yearsrunningofdeficit=storageshortfall

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Salinas1251-1325AD

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WildPlantResources

Step1:

MeanAnnualTEMP

MeanAnnualPRCP

SpeciesPresence/AbsenceData

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WildPlantResources

Step2:

MeanAnnualTEMP

MeanAnnualPRCP

SpeciesPresence/AbsenceData

Speciesmodelsprojectedtocreateaprobabilitysurfaceof100ethnographicallyidentified

“important”species

Probabilitiesthresholdsappliedtomakeapresence/absencemapofallspecies

FinalSpeciesRichnessMap

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Salinas1250-1299AD

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Anti-CorrelationMaps(socialnetworks)

Focalcellsonlandscape(ArchaeologicalSites)

Cell

0.5SDaboveavg.

0.5SDbelowavg.

60yearrunningavg

EachcellhasaupperSDthresholdandlowerSDthresholdthatiscalculatedeachyear

Goodyear=aboveupperthreshold

Badyear=belowlowerthreshold

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Anti-CorrelationMapsSalinasCaseStudyAD1100-1450

GrowingSeason:May- Oct

Foreachyear:

Goodyear&badyearprocedureisrunonallcellswithinthemap

IftheFocalCellishavingagoodyear,procedurelooksforcellsexperiencingbadyears(surplusanti-correlated)

IftheFocalCellishavingabadyear,procedurelooksforcellsexperiencinggoodyears(deficitanti-correlated)

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Anti-CorrelationMaps

Yearlymapsofcellssurplusanti-correlatedandcellsdeficitanti-correlatedtothefocalcellarecombinedandrepresentedasapercentageforeachtimeperiod.

Bothsurplusanti-correlationrelationshipsanddeficitanti-correlationrelationshiparerepresentedinourmaps.

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Salinas1351-1450AD

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Afewsizesfitmost?

Onesizefitsall

Onesizefitsone

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