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CULTURE & CLIMATE CHANGE

IN THE

WEST MIDLANDS

(Moseley Tornado Damage July 2005)

Such sheets of fire, such bursts of horrid thunder,

Such groans of roaring wind and rain I never

Remember to have heard:

(King Lear Act III Scene II)

(Worcestershire’s New Road Cricket Ground July 2007)

November 2007

Professor John E. Thornes University of Birmingham

Discussion Paper for Culture West Midlands

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PROLOGUE

‘‘We see nothing truly till we understand it’’ (John Constable, 1836)

The spectre of climate change, fuelled by society’s outpourings of greenhouse gases, has been nagging our consciences throughout the twenty-first century so far. Over the last year there has been a strengthening of resolve of the climate scientists and governments that future climate change will have drastic implications for all of us on the planet if we don’t do something - equally drastic - about it. The media, big business and the general population are beginning to realise the seriousness of the situation. The need to change our lifestyles and energy consumption has been recognised by industry to provide new opportunities to take advantage of new products and technologies to encourage a global and local green economy. The cultural sector has a big part to play in mitigating energy consumption and adapting to this new way of life. Indeed the cultural sector needs to take a lead in communicating the importance of a green lifestyle to the West Midlands region, the nation and the world beyond. A huge new cultural turn is needed to translate ideas into action. The talking needs to be replaced by noble deeds and a cross-cultural community spirit if we are to succeed. We need to reverse the current mode of over-consumerism and waste into a mode of responsibility and repair. The cultural sector needs ‘to paint the town green’ both literally and metaphorically.

The Cultural Value of Atmosphere, Weather and Climate

First things first – in order to attempt to understand the implications of climate change for Culture in the West Midlands – we have to try and understand how the atmosphere, weather and climate already impinge upon our everyday creative and business activities. We all take the atmosphere for granted. We breathe up to 15 litres of air every minute and we burn up to 2000 litres of oxygen for every litre of petrol or diesel that we use in our cars, or oil that we burn in our buildings. Joseph Priestly is credited with the discovery of oxygen in 1774. He was a member of the legendary Lunar Society when he lived in Birmingham (1780-91) and wrote many scientific, philosophical and religious papers in the city. He isolated air into its constituent gases and thereby helped pioneer the industrial revolution in the Midlands via his friends Mathew Boulton and James Watt. Ironically he helped lots of people make money out of carbon dioxide by inventing soda water, which is created by bubbling carbon dioxide through water. He also discovered photosynthesis, the means whereby plants convert oxygen into carbon dioxide during the day and carbon dioxide into oxygen at night. He was also a dissenting

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clergyman with radical views which led to him fleeing the city when his Birmingham house was burnt down in 1791 for supporting the French Revolution.

Joseph Priestley 1733-1804

• Member of the Lunar Society (1780-91)

• Discovered Oxygen (1774)

• Helped fuel theindustrial revolution in the West Midlands

• Rioters burned down his Birmingham house in 1791

Today we don’t stop to think how precious the atmosphere is to society - it is our greatest resource as well as occasionally being a spectacular hazard. We all remember the floods of July 2007 that hit Worcestershire in particular and we moan about the summer of 2007 – the summer that never was – but we forget that without the atmosphere we wouldn’t be here! Without the atmosphere we would not be able to hear each other talk, or listen to music, or go to the theatre. Without the atmosphere there would be no tourism - we would not be able to fly off on our holidays or drive our cars. The atmosphere also has a direct influence on other cultural activities such as sport – for example the flight of a badminton shuttle, or squash ball or the swing of a cricket ball. Weather is also very important to us – it controls the air temperature for example and whether or not we need to get warmer or cooler to maintain our body temperature of 37 degrees Celsius. The wind and the rain and the humidity also control how comfortable we feel when we are out of doors. Even when we are indoors the weather controls our comfort levels and what clothes we wear and whether or not we switch on the heating. The temperature and humidity have to be carefully controlled in art galleries, libraries and archives to preserve the collections; and in theatres and cinemas and sports arenas for the comfort of audiences. The weather can dramatically influence the outcome of sporting events, indeed the game of cricket relies on the weather to help produce results.

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The climate of a region, like the West Midlands, is part of our unique cultural heritage. Again we tend to take our climate for granted and we expect to move freely about the region whatever the season. The climate controls much of the amount of energy we consume in our homes and hence our carbon footprints. Our West Midlands Regional carbon emissions have been estimated to be

around 10 tonnes per person per year. This needs to be reduced to 3 tonnes

per person by 2050!

1. Comments on the Regional Implications raised in the State of

the Region (SORU) report and their Impact on the Cultural

Sector. The West Midlands Regional Assembly was the first Regional Assembly, in October 2006, to sign up to the Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change. The West Midlands Regional Climate Action Plan was published in November 2007 and sets out a number of climate change targets and priorities for action. The 2007 West Midlands Regional Observatory State of the Region Update (SORU) has a chapter on climate change. The targets for reduction of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are, following the International, European and UK lead, as follows:

• Following the international Kyoto Treaty of 1997 Britain is committed to

reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to at least 12.5% below 1990

levels by 2012.

• In March 2007 EU Heads agreed to reduce greenhouse gases by 20%

by 2020 compared to 1990 levels.

• The UK government has gone further promising to cut CO2 emissions:

by 20% by 2010 compared to 1990 levels;

by 60% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

• Renewable energy to provide: 10% of domestic energy needs by 2010

15% of domestic energy needs by 2015

20% of domestic energy needs by 2020

Unfortunately the West Midlands is restricted in renewable energy potential and has therefore set a target of providing just 5% renewables by 2010. There are no planned wind farms in the West Midlands due to the lack of suitable windy sites.

The Present and Projected Future Climate of the West Midlands

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The Earth's climate is always changing, it has changed in the past, it is changing now and will continue to change in the future. In the past the changes have been due to natural causes such as astronomical variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun or huge volcanic eruptions that fill the atmosphere with dust. In the last 2 to 3 million years (the Quaternary Ice Age) there have been approximately 20 glacial phases that have lasted for about 100,000 years and interglacial phases, that have been warmer, that tend to last for about 10 to 12,000 years. For 90% of this Quaternary period our normal climate in the United Kingdom has been glacial. For the last 10,000 years (Holocene) we have been in an interglacial period. Indeed in the 1970’s scientist were predicting that the onset of the next glacial phase was imminent. However careful monitoring of the Earth’s climate during the twentieth century detected a significant warming trend attributed to human activities and the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from the combustion of coal and oil. Scientists are now predicting that this warming trend will continue throughout the twenty-first century unless we significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. What makes this predicted change in climate different from previous natural changes is the speed of change. Whereas natural changes are normally thought to take hundred or thousands of years to occur, enhanced global warming due to human activity will see dramatic changes in a few decades1. The atmosphere keeps the surface of the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be by about 33 degrees Celsius. This is what we call global warming. The extra warming due to human activities (what we call enhanced global warming) - so far is only about 0.6 degrees Celsius but is predicted to rise to as much as 4.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, if we don’t do anything about it.

In the West Midlands the trends are predicted to be very similar2 with warmer wetter winters and hotter drier summers. Although sea level rise will not affect the West Midlands directly it could mean that the Severn and Avon rivers flood more often as their tidal range moves further upstream. Tornadoes (eg Moseley July 2005) and floods (eg summer 2007) will become more common place as a warming atmosphere has more energy. .

Current baseline climate and future climate of the West Midlands: Baseline (1961-90) Future(2050)? (2100)? Annual Mean Temperature 9.4 degrees C 11.4? 13.4? Mean number of frost days 36 30? 28? Mean Annual Rainfall 719 mm 650? 600?

1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Climate Change WG1 The Physical Science Basis

(http://www.ipcc.ch/) 2 Sustainability West Midlands 2004 The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the West Midlands

(http://www.sustainabilitywestmidlands.org.uk/)

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Mean Number of Rain Days 180 150? 120? Mean Number of Snow Days 30 15? 8? Mean Number of Snow Lying Days 18 10? 6? Mean Daily wind speed 9 mph Mean Number of windy days 13 15? 17? Mean number of gale days 11 13? 15? Mean Relative Humidity 1500 70% 65%? 60%? To give a rough analogue of what the climate of the West Midlands will be like in 2050 and 2100 - if we don’t do any thing about it - our climate will become more continental and be more like the North of France (Paris Basin) by 2050 and more like the South of France (Marseilles) by 2100. From a selfish point of view some people would think that this might be a good thing! However our whole society would have to adapt to a lack of rainfall and roasting summers. Some more alarmist predictions suggest that the Gulf Stream might weaken considerably as the Artic ice melts and flip such that our climate would become much colder – more like Iceland or Moscow more befitting our high latitude location.

Climate Change Scenarios for the UK and the West Midlands

Projected changes in temperature and precipitation are given in Figures 1 & 2. (Changes are all with respect to the mean 1961-1990 climate, for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios respectively.) The scenarios presented in Figures1 & 2 should be regarded only as indicative because the regional climate model treats the West Midlands as a completely vegetated surface and does not take into account urban heat islands.

Predicted Mean Temperature Changes

Figure 1 shows that by 2080 the annual mean temperature is expected to be between 2.0oC and 4.5 oC warmer than the 9.4 oC it is today (1961-90). To appreciate how dramatic these changes would be in comparison to the last 200 years in the West Midlands – the mean temperature has not varied by more than 0.4 oC over any 30 year period. Most of the warming is expected to take place in summer although winters are also expected to be significantly warmer. There is a temperature gradient shown such that the south east of the region is expected to warm up more than the north east of the region. Annual rates of warming vary from 0.1 oC to 0.3 oC per decade for the low emissions scenario to 0.3 oC to 0.5 oC per decade for the high emissions scenario.

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Figure 1 Predicted Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies for the West Midlands in

the Twenty First century for Low and High Emission Scenarios

Predicted Mean Precipitation Changes

Figure 2 shows that the predicted mean annual precipitation changes are less than 10% for all scenarios. However this hides a dramatic predicted change in seasonal precipitation. Figure 2 also shows that winter precipitation might increase by between 20% and 30% for both low and high emissions scenarios, whereas summer precipitation might decrease by between 20% and 50%. Again there is a predicted gradient with the south east of the region predicted to have the greatest increase in winter and the greatest decrease in summer. The predicted changes are of a similar magnitude to the current within region variations. The predicted winter changes would tend to even out the rainfall across the region whereas the summer changes would be similar across the whole region.

Although the amount of precipitation is expected to increase in winter, because of the warmer temperatures the amount of snowfall is expected to decrease significantly. Reductions by as much as 50% to 90% are predicted by 2080.

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Figure 2 Predicted Daily Mean Precipitation Anomalies for the West Midlands in

the Twenty First century for Low and High Emission Scenarios

These scenarios show that there is still time to significantly alter our use of energy ideally to restrict changes to the low 2050 scenario. In order to achieve this we will have to both mitigate (diminish or tone down) our energy usage and adapt

(change) our behaviour for instance by walking and cycling more. Climate change is not just a hazard however it also presents a challenge to be exploited as a resource by regional endeavour. The West Midlands intends to use it’s heritage of innovation and enterprise to lead the development of low-carbon technologies. It is likely that the British economy will see a £30 billion opportunity over the next 10 years and the global market could be as high as £250 billion by 2050. The opportunities for the cultural sector in the West Midlands could be equally encouraging – turning problems into solutions.

The West Midlands Regional Observatory State of the Region report

(SORU) 20073 highlights the main hazards for the West Midlands:

Water Resources and Flooding

The West Midlands has limited resources to store water and much (75%) of our water is taken from rivers and surface reservoirs which may well have insufficient water in the drier summer months. It is clear that we will have to adapt to reduce our individual water consumption. A target of about 100 litres, down

3 State of the Region Update Report (SORU) 2007(http://www.wmro.org)

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from 132 litres currently, of water per person per day (to include drinking, washing up, bathing (showering) and toilets) may be necessary. The Environment Agency estimate that about 1,000 square km of land in the West Midlands (8% of the land area and nearly 100,000 properties) are at risk of flooding. Currently a West Midlands Flood Risk Appraisal is being undertaken – no doubt enhanced by the knowledge gained in the floods of July 2007. Money will have to be spent to improve drainage and restrict damage via flood prevention schemes in properties that are at risk. Also ‘green roof’ planning4 will become more normal, where appropriate, for existing buildings as well as new.

Land Management

A longer growing season may be good for farming in the region but also can lead to expensive (increased fuel use and increased carbon footprint) all year round grass cutting in some mild winters. New pests might cause novel problems and gardens may have to be stocked with new drought resistant plants. Forestry is an important component of recreation and tourism. There is a great incentive to plant more trees and the Forestry Commission is well aware of the challenges, eg for species selection, posed by climate change5. Biodiversity is an important issue that is threatened by climate change. It is important to open up new corridors, especially through urban areas, to enable species to expand their habitats, or indeed find new more suitable habitats.

Economy and Business

Climate change presents both challenges and opportunities for identifying changes in consumer behaviour and business practices. Future investment should be used to climate proof operations and premises. Tourism faces a number of dilemmas as air travel is increasingly targeted to reduce carbon emissions. It has been estimated that holidays abroad taken by residents of the West Midlands contribute over 850,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. Warmer, drier summers should persuade more residents to take their holidays in the UK as the Mediterranean becomes unpleasantly hot. This will present new opportunities for tourism in the West Midlands but may also add to pressures on water demand and biodiversity.

Built and Historic Environment

More green spaces that can help to keep urban areas cooler and act as corridors for wildlife should be encouraged. These green areas and warmer 4 (http://www.livingroofs.org/livingpages/practicalinstall.html)

5 (http://www.forestry.gov.uk/)

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temperatures will also encourage more active outdoor leisure activities like walking and cycling. Increased risk of severe weather causing flooding and prolonged dry periods causing subsidence, especially on clay soils, will put pressure on historic buildings and heritage sites. The SORU report states that the West Midlands has 34,363 listed buildings of which 193 are at-risk of imminent loss, the highest number of at-risk building in any region in England. Also of the 1,426 scheduled ancient monuments 29% are at high risk. A reduction in the number of frosts in winter and drier summers could enforce changes in the traditional planting of historic gardens and may lead to threats from new pests and diseases.

Implications for the Cultural Sector

It is clear from the SORU report that each cultural domain needs to actively examine the impact that climate change will have on all their operations. Everything from reducing their carbon footprint (mitigation) through to how they might adapt to the new climate (adaptation) in new positive ways. For example the Garrick Theatre in Lichfield has won several awards for the installation of an eco-friendly natural ventilation system that has significantly reduced its carbon footprint whilst at the same time stimulating new business.

The Garrick Theatre Lichfield

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2. The Relationship between Culture and Climate Change.

The Department for Culture Media and Sport (DCMS) currently has the following objectives:

By the end of March 2008:

1. To establish a baseline measurement of the carbon footprint of the

Department for Culture, Media and Sport(comprising 2 central London

buildings, approx. 600 staff) and of our major Non-Departmental Public

Bodies (NDPBs) and our Executive Agency, The Royal Parks etc

2. To establish the extent of current research on the effects of climate

change on our sectors and inform the commissioning of future research;

3. To produce a public facing account of current activity among our Non

Departmental Public Bodies to mitigate or adapt to climate change,

identifying good practice and key challenges to stimulate further progress in

persuading fellow stakeholders and citizens to modify their behaviour.

DCMS has defined seven cultural domains and each will be considered individually in section 3 to discuss the mitigation and adaptation strategies that might be undertaken. Firstly the Carbon Trust has identified a five step process that will be used by DCMS for the development of mitigation strategies that can be used by all seven cultural domains.

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Step 1: Mobilise Organisation

Step 2: Develop Business Case

Step 3: IdentifyOpportunities

Step 4: DevelopImplementation

Plan

Step 5: ManageImplementation

Carbon Management consists of five stages

Process Step Description• Identify internal stakeholders• Secure buy-in• Agree aims, approach, commitments and responsibilities

• Develop overall understanding of climate change and its risks and opportunities for the business

• Agree objectives and approach to carbon management• Carbon baseline, risks opportunities• Carbon reduction drivers, value at stake

• Establish detailed picture of company emissions• Assets &liabilities• Generate and evaluate ideas for cost-effective emission

reductions

• Prioritise ideas, reflecting overall corporate objectives• Develop implementation plan

• Monitor implementation progress and effectiveness

• Review progress and update plan

As far as adaptation and innovation are concerned we need to better understand the links between culture and climate. Climate is an integral part of our culture and conversely culture is an integral part of our climate. This intimate relationship between climate & culture has been taken for granted in the past but gives extra meaning and value to the current study of climate change. Cultural climatology is a new branch of climatology that crosses the divide between climate science and culture: The critical examination of the impact of climate on culture and the impact

of culture on climate, could be seen to be the new role of the cultural

climatologist.6

The links between culture and climate change need further exploration and the following Table7 suggests that there are many new links waiting to be examined.

6 Thornes, J.E. & McGregor, G.R. 2003 Cultural Climatology, ch 6 in Contemporary Meanings in Physical

Geography ed by Steve Trudgill & A Roy, Arnold, London, 173-197 7 Thornes, J.E. 2008 Cultural Climatology and the Representation of Sky, Atmosphere, Weather and

Climate in selected art works of Constable, Monet and Eliasson (in press Geoforum)

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The semiotics of climate and climate change: 1. Climate as nature: How can we interpret the power of nature and the power of the divine? 2. Climate as habitat: Is the climate in harmony with society? 3. Climate as artifact: Is the climate submissive to society? How is the impact of climate change being managed? 4. Climate as system: What are the visible form and processes of the atmosphere, weather and climate? Cloud classification, optical effects, atmospheric processes and dynamics, sound waves, speech, smell? 5. Climate as problem: Evidence of severe weather, flooding, drought, enhanced global warming, air pollution, noise pollution, health, jet contrails? 6. Climate as wealth: How much is our climate worth? 7. Climate as ideology: Is our climate common property? Who owns the atmosphere? 8. Climate as history: How has the climate changed at this location? 9. Climate as place: Is the microclimate unique to this place? 10. Climate as aesthetic: Sometimes gentle, sometimes capricious,

sometimes aweful, never the same for two moments together; almost

human in its passions, almost spiritual in its tenderness, almost divine in its

infinity. (John Ruskin, Modern Painters I)

3. Sector-specific Implications Prevalent for the West Midlands.

Adaptation and Innovation are more individually focussed and the national picture and regional picture will be discussed for each domain in turn. It is important to also stress the interlinks between domains in order to encourage co-operation as well as avoiding conflicts of interest.

Audio-Visual (Film, TV, Radio, New Media and Music)

Priority must be to use the audio-video sector to communicate the importance of climate change to society. Obviously Al Gore’s film The

Inconvenient Truth is a classic example of how a film can change the views

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of a nation. Al Gore has just received the Nobel Peace prize in partnership with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): His strong commitment, reflected in political activity, lectures, films and books,

has strengthened the struggle against climate change.

This film provides a powerful precedent for creative cultural influence and power. Classical music is a wonderful way to express climate and the works of Elgar epitomise the climate of the Malvern Hills. Many composers have used the atmosphere for inspiration – Beethoven, Wagner, Vivaldi and Sibelius to name but a few. Modern music is full of concerts in aid of climate change awareness epitomised in the UK by the G8 summit in Gleneagles in 2005 which was accompanied by the Live 8 rock concert in Hyde Park. In the future festivals/events could become central to growing local tourism. Television has hosted a number of ‘nature’ programmes on climate change but there is also a need to reach out to other audiences – eg in Coronation Street Roy has recently shown devices to reduce the carbon footprint of the café! This is very much in the spirit of The Archers providing post war advice to farmers.

Books and Press

The media has a huge responsibility to educate and encourage society to take climate change seriously and to help society to go green. It is also important that a critical review of the science of climate change is maintained in order to stimulate debate and innovation. It is also important that literature begins to explore the phenomena of climate change just as Charles Dickens, Robert Louis Stephenson and Arthur Conan Doyle (Sherlock Holmes) exploited the Apocalyptic London smogs of the late nineteenth century. It will be interesting to see if climate change is used directly or indirectly in twenty first century literature. The number of non –fiction books on climate change is expanding rapidly. For example: a search on Amazon reveals more than 2,500 books on climate change are currently available! This is probably just the tip of an iceberg of publications that is currently being worked on.

Heritage (Historic Environment , Museums, Libraries, Archives )

The National Trust has already begun to tackle climate change both via mitigation and adaptation. Their web site is full of references to tackling climate change:

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National Trust Green Energy is 100 per cent renewable electricity that is

produced from existing cleaner, greener sources such as offshore wind and

hydro-electric power.

Climate change is one of the world’s greatest challenges. It is also one of the

National Trust's biggest challenges.

The impacts of climate change in the UK are increasingly affecting the

historic buildings, gardens, countryside and coast in our care.

We are learning how to manage these impacts, such as floods, storm

damage and seasonal change. However, in doing this we need the support

of our neighbours, partners, and, importantly, you.

Over the last eight years, we have been forced to make over 400 separate

insurance claims for flood or storm damage, worth over £3.2 million. As we

don’t claim for many minor incidents, the real total of occurrences is much

higher.

Dramatic changes in the speed with which some plants grow, and longer,

warmer growing seasons have very important implications for the National

Trust. Some plant species may find it difficult in modern climatic conditions,

whilst others can thrive. The trend towards a longer growing season is already

starting to demand year-round mowing and lawn care, raising maintenance

costs in large gardens8

Museums, libraries and archives also need to be as proactive to reduce their carbon footprints and adapt to changing flood risk, temperature and humidity. Also it is important to encourage public transport connections for both new and existing venues.

Performance (Theatre, Arts and Dance)

There is great potential for the performing arts to lead the way in encouraging society to change its lifestyle and carbon footprint. The Garrick Theatre in Lichfield has already been mentioned as an award winning icon of best practice. Plays about the environment and climate change need to be

8 (http://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/main/w-climate_change-forecast_changeable.pdf)

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encouraged. Creative expression of our intimate relationship with the ‘atmosphere’ need to be promoted. We act, sing and dance in the atmosphere and communicate through it.

There is a growing concern that climate change is not being given the attention it deserves. A recent blog by Chris Wilkinson states:

No one could accuse the theatre in this country of being politically shy. In recent years, a whole range

of work has been sparked by issues like Iraq, the war on terror, and the genocide in Rwanda. But the

massive global threat posed by polar icecaps melting and sea levels rising has, until now, remained

almost completely absent from the listings pages. Why?9

Sport and Leisure

Sport, fitness and health are interlinked. All outdoor and indoor sport is affected by the atmosphere, weather and climate and there is much need for more basic research into the likely impact of climate change. Sports halls, stadiums, park changing rooms, health centres, swimming pools, tennis courts etc will all need to adapt to climate change as well as each sport reducing their carbon footprint. The balance between participant and spectator comfort needs to examined and the likely impact on playing surfaces which will affect game quality. Playing fields are important green spaces that also act as wildlife corridors. There is still much confusion as to how the atmosphere (eg air density) controls the enjoyment of a sport. For example sports such as squash and badminton are normally, in the UK, played indoors in artificial ‘ecoclimates’ created by sports centres to avoid wind and rain. However, air temperature and humidity are still of vital importance. In the case of Badminton, for example the choice of shuttle should depend on air density but Law 4 states: A shuttle shall be deemed to be of the correct pace if, when a player of

average strength strikes it with a full underhand stroke from a spot

immediately above the back boundary line in a line parallel to the side lines,

and at an upward angle, it falls not less than 0.30 m and not more than 0.76

m short of the other back boundary line10

It would be much easier to have a look-up table for the current air temperature and humidity! The ideal temperature for Badminton is 7 degrees Celsius for tournaments and 13 degrees Celsius otherwise. Most sports centres

9 http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/theatre/2007/09/its_time_to_confront_climate_c.html

10 Know the Game Badminton 2006

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maintain temperatures much higher than this and much energy could be saved and carbon footprints reduced with careful management. Other ideal temperatures are11: Archery 13-16 degrees Celsius Basketball 10-13 Boxing 13-16 Indoor Bowls 16-19 Indoor Tennis 13-16 Judo 13-16 Netball 13-16 Rowing Tank 13-16 Squash 10-13 Spectators in sports halls can easily wrap up warm like they do for outdoor sports. Sport and health go hand in hand as more people are encouraged to leave their cars behind and walk, jog and cycle more. More initiatives to open up cycle ways and jogging routes are needed in public parks, the countryside and to gain access to leisure facilities. Sport England12 is aware that the volume of cycling in the UK is well below that of many other countries. Cycling is excellent for health and reducing carbon footprints.

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Thornes, J.E. 1977 The Effect of Weather on Sport, Weather, 32, 258-268 12 http://www.sportengland.org/wm_pan_wm_seminar_2_active_travel.pdf

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Tourism

The likely impact of climate change on tourism in the UK has been well researched already. For example the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI)13 has been developed that looks at how future climate scenarios will impact on tourism numbers in different seasons. The United Kingdom is projected to benefit mostly in Summer and the Autumn with a slight improvement in Spring and little change in Winter. The TCI goes from zero (terrible) to 100 (perfect). The typical TCI for the West Midlands today peaks in July at about 60 whereas the Balearic Islands (Spain) peak at about 90 in June. By the 2080’s this could have changed to see the West Midlands scoring a maximum of more than 80 in July equalling the Balearics whose scores suffer as their climate becomes too hot in summer. The West Midlands could score above 70 from May to September. It would appear that tourism potential in the West Midlands would improve if we didn’t do anything about climate change! However there are lots of other factors to consider eg the consequential increase in air flights into Birmingham International Airport that would accompany such changes! Flying and tourism have a lot of soul searching to do at the moment. For planning purposes it is likely that the 2050 scenario will be

13 Amelung, B. & Viner, D. 2006 Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic

Index, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14, 349-366

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reached even if emissions are dramatically reduced due to ocean lack effects.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Months

To

uri

sm

Clim

ati

c I

nd

ex

1970s

2020s

2050s

2080s

The predicted Tourism Climatic Index for Birmingham up to the 2080’s (footnote 12). The World Tourism Association has recently published an action list suggesting amongst other items: 1. that GHG emissions from air transport need to be addressed more

substantively from the perspective of the primary user, the tourism sector

2. that measures taken to reduce air transport emissions need to reflect

coherence with strategies to reduce poverty and promote development in

the world’s poorestcountries

3. that all efforts to reduce emissions through improvements in airframe and

engine technology, air traffic management and operational practices should

be strongly supported

4. that economic instruments need to be addressed in partnership by all the

international governmental parties directly concerned, notably UNWTO, UNEP

and UNFCCC itself as well as ICAO, and in close consultation with the private

sector

5. that funds collected from economic instruments should be applied to

resolving the specific problems surrounding aviation and tourism rather than

buried in general

tax revenues.14

14 http://www.unwto.org/climate/index.php

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The Davos Declaration15 on Climate Change and Tourism signed on 3 October 2007 states the tourism sector must respond to climate change requiring action to:

• mitigate its Greenhouse Gas GHG emissions, derived especially from

transport and accommodation activities;

• adapt tourism businesses and destinations to changing climate

conditions;

• apply existing and new technology to improve energy efficiency; and

• secure financial resources to help poor regions and countries.

The tourism sector also needs to look at new initiatives that are innovative in the light of potential climate change. For example the likely growth in artificial ski-slopes and artificial snow making; better range of local tourism facilities as more families stay local; more ‘nature/environment’ local tourism to promote local resources eg the GeoPark; better public transport around the region and tourist sites.

The Abberley and Malvern Hills Geopark, is located within the West Midlands

region of the United Kingdom and covers an area of 1250 square kilometres.16

Visual Arts (Galleries, Architecture, Design and Crafts)

The Burning Ice – Art and Climate Change exhibition in Oxford, London and Liverpool was part of the Cape Farewell project created by the artist David Buckland. Artists and scientists concerned about climate change have visited the Artic to view the retreating ice for themselves17. The organisation TippingPoint has been formed to build bridges between artists and climate change scientists and practioners18 . We believe that climate change is an entirely new challenge. Its nature and

scale reveals that existing politics and political institutions, commercial

structures & social mechanisms aren’t up to it.

Even if they were, we also agree with writer and journalist Bill McKibben that

‘art, like religion, is one of the ways we digest what is happening to us, make

15 http://www.unwto.org/pdf/pr071046.pdf

16 http://www.europeangeoparks.org/isite/geopark/39,1,0.asp?mu=1&cmu=6&thID=0

17 http://www.capefarewell.com/

18 http://www.tippingpoint.org.uk/

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the sense out of it that proceeds to action. Otherwise, the only role left to us

— noble, but also enraging in its impotence — is simply to pay witness.’ In

other words, this is about culture. Culture is in the hands of a lot of people;

but at the forefront are artists, whatever their medium.

The Visual Arts are an ideal form of communication of new ideas.

Architecture is equally involved in radical design. The Worcestershire Climate

Change Newsletter for July 2007 reports on radical climatic design:

Red Hill Primary School in Worcester has utilised leading scientific knowledge

of future climate scenarios to become one of the UK’s first Low Carbon,

Climate Change ready schools. The recently completed school - officially

opened by the then Climate Change and Environment Minister, Ian Pearson,

on June 18 – was designed by Worcestershire County Council’s in house-

team of architects and engineers. The team recently clinched the gold

award in the schools section of this year’s Green Apple Awards for the Built

Environment for the project. It is the first building of its type to use the Climate

Change Adaptation Wizard developed by the UK Climate Change Impacts

Programme. The design aims to protect the school against critical future

impacts such as higher rainfall in winter, extreme storm weather and hotter

drier summers, as well as reducing the school’s carbon footprint19.

The Royal Institute for British Architects (RIBA) has proposed four strands of action to combat climate change: Setting Targets; Providing the Necessary Tools; Changing Corporate Behaviour & Campaigning20. RIBA has published a number of guides including a climate change briefing, a guide to low carbon design tools and a guide to low carbon performance standards and assessment methods. The Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment (CABE) believes that: the global environmental crisis is largely a planning and design crisis. It is

calling for radical new thinking if cities are to reach the government's carbon

reduction target of a minimum 60 per cent cut by 205021 .

Birmingham has declared a target of 2026 for carbon reduction of 60% which is part of their ‘eco-city’ concept. Cityscapes in the West Midlands will have to radically alter as zero carbon housing will be compulsory by 2016 and retrofitting of houses and other buildings for carbon reduction becomes the norm.

EPILOGUE: Meaningful Action

19 Worcestershire Climate Change Newsletter Issue 13 July 2007

20 http://www.architecture.com/FindOutAbout/ClimateChange/ClimateChange.aspx

21 http://www.cabe.org.uk/

22

* All parts of the Cultural Spectrum within the West Midlands should embark upon a climate proofing exercise using the Carbon Trust model as a guide. This should not only include sustainable buildings, land and other properties but should also consider staff, customers, suppliers and other partners. This requires the production of a climate change action plan that would normally run for five years, monitored and assessed each year.

23

* New ideas to use the skills and power of the cultural sector to communicate climate change to society within the West Midlands include:

• A Climate Change season of events in the West Midlands to highlight

the importance of action to include art exhibitions, art competitions,

music recitals, plays, books, TV & Radio programmes, sports events,

sponsored walks and cycle events, ballet, dance etc.22

• Provide practical education and training regarding the impacts of

climate change for cultural organisations with real case studies and

links to similar schemes in other regions in their domain23.

• Encourage the communication of ideas across the cultural spectrum

by setting up a web site and/or newsletter ‘Culture in the West Midlands

and Climate Change’.

• Set up an educational climate change Arts Workshop for Schools and

Businesses in the West Midlands.

• Set Targets for reductions in the cultural carbon footprint in the West

Midlands

• Offer price reductions for customers who can prove that they have

walked, cycled or used public transport to reach your venue.

• Set up new Annual Climate Change Awards for 1) best mitigation 2)

best adaptation and 3) best innovation in the Culture West Midlands

portfolio.

• Climate Change Heritage Walks eg Climate Change and the Geopark

Way – see how the climate of the West Midlands has changed over the

last 1000 million years!

• Provide links with the Cultural Olympiad 2008-2012 which is already

planning sustainable events24

22 See for example CLIMATE CHANGE : CULTURAL CHANGE, Malcolm Miles

An essay which accompanied the programme Climate Change : Cultural Change developed by Helix Arts in

partnership with CarbonNeutral Newcastle and NewcastleGateshead Initiative to coincide with the World Summit

on Arts and Culture (June 14th-17th, 2006). 23

Culture and the Green Agenda, Culturenorthwest, December 2006 24 Prepare for 2012, Priorities for the West Midlands Region