cumulative effects decision making · •cynefin framework can be used to classify knowledge and...
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Cumulative Effects Decision Making
The Canadian Institute Cumulative Effects Conference
June 20, 2017
The Need for Cumulative Effects Decision Making
The Need for CE Decision Making
• The Triple Bottom Line
Social Bottom Line
Economic Bottom Line
Environmental Bottom Line
Social Bottom Line
Economic Bottom Line
Environmental Bottom Line
The Perceived Ideal How it Works
Elkington, J, (1997), Cannibals With Forks
This area includes:• Environmental Liabilities
(remediation and reclamation) • Land management trade-offs
(development versus environment)• Species at Risk issues: Caribou, Sage
GrouseElkington, J, (1997), Cannibals With Forks
This area includes:• Environmental refuges
• Fort Mac Fires• Environmental literacy
• Arts vs science • Environmental justice• Intergenerational equity• Landscape carrying capacity
This area includes:• Social impacts of
investment• Corporate Social
Responsibility• Business ethics• Stakeholder and
Indigenous rights• Stakeholder captialism
Social Bottom Line
Economic Bottom Line
Environmental Bottom Line
The Need for CE Decision Making
• How much change is acceptable?• This is a value based decision
Pristine 1% Change
5% Change
10% Change
15% Change
30% Change
40% Change
60% Change
70% Change
Antoniuk, T., (2015) The A, B, Cs of Cumulative Effects Assessment
The Need for CE Decision Making
Dealing with Cumulative Effects Decision Problems
Types of Problems
• Cynefin Framework can be used to classify knowledge and problems
Snowden, D. J., Boone, M. E. (2007) A Leaders Framework for Decision Making (HBR)
Types of Problems
• Simple Problems Domain of simple solutions (utilizes best practices)
• Complicated Problems Domain of experts (utilizes various types of decision models)
• Complex Problems Domain of emergence (utilizes systems methods and systems thinking)
• Chaotic Problems Domain of rapid response (utilizes heroic leadership)
Snowden, D. J., Boone, M. E. (2007) A Leaders Framework for Decision Making (HBR)
Models for Dealing with Simple and Complicated Problems
50 Models for Decision Making• For improving yourself: the Eisenhower matrix, SWOT
analysis, consequences model• For understand yourself: the flow model, cognitive
dissonance, personal performance model• For understanding others: Maslow pyramids, small world
model, Pareto principle• For improving others: Team model, role-playing model,
results optimization model
Developed for use where there are multiple complicated steps• Useful for technical areas where avoiding daily mistakes is
often unavoidable• Helpful for memory recall and ensuring the proper process• Works well with multiple people in multiple teams with
specialized expertise• Helps to prevent communication failures
Current land condition
Single Activity
Mitigation ILM
Denial
Future land condition
Near Threshold?
NoYes
Impact on future state?
Near Threshold?
Yes
No
Adapted from Dube, M., Banister, K., (2015) Hearing Commissioners Workshop on Cumulative Effects
Difference between Complicated and Complex Problems
Current water condition
Activity
Mitigation ILM
Denial
Future water condition
Near Threshold?
NoYes
Impact on future state?
Near Threshold?
Yes
No
Current air condition
Activity
Mitigation ILM
Denial
Future air condition
Near Threshold?
NoYes
Impact on future state?
Near Threshold?
Yes
No
Complex Problems
• Cumulative effects decisions are decisions about complex problems
• Complex problems are often difficult to resolve because:• Of incomplete or contradictory knowledge • Of the number of people and opinions involved • They have a lot of interdependencies• They may be non-linear• They have a capacity to adapt as conditions change, and• They may encompass both simple and complicated
problems but are not reducible to either type of problem
Making Decisions
Making Decisions
• What are good decisions?• “A good decisions is one that is:
• logically consistent with our state of information and
• incorporates possible alternatives with their associated probabilities and potential outcomes
• in accordance with our risk attitude.”
• Good decisions require efficiency and effectiveness and implies a need for decision making processes
Skinner, D.C, (2009), Introduction to Decision Analysis, Third Edition
Making Decisions
• Efficiency and Effectiveness• Efficiency is about allocating resources• Effectiveness is about understanding what is to be
accomplished• Effectiveness is built into the concept of efficiency
• We can’t be efficient until we understand what we want to be effective in
• The debate about effectiveness is always subject to argument because it is about Values
Stein, J. G. (2001), The Cult of Efficiency
Making Decisions
• Values• Everyone perceives the world based on assumptions
and our brains constructs meaning based on past experiences1
• We frame the our view of issues through:• Schemas – the cognitive frameworks, templates and rules we apply
to the world to make sense of it, and
• Heuristics – the simple rules of thumb that suggest a solution to a problem2
• Both internal and external factors can exert influence on our judgement
• Small and seemingly insignificant details such as colour and default options can change our frames of reference3
1. Lotto, B., (2017), Deviate: The Science of Seeing Differently2. Nisbett, R.E., (2015) Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking3. Thaller, R. H., Sunstein, C. R., (2009), Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness
Making Decisions
• Values• Individual experience and cultural
backgrounds influence our values and therefore the choices we make• Some cultures look at choice as “freedom
from…” while others look at choice as “freedom to…”
• Therefore stakeholders can have significantly different values
• Our perception of choice can affect our well-being and influence everything from our health to our satisfaction with life
Iyengar, S, (2010), The Art of Choosing
Cumulative Effects Decisions
Cumulative Effects Decisions
• Most decision making processes deal with simple or complicated decisions
• As a result, the default tools are usually for simple and complicated decisions• Consequences model• SWOT Analysis• Maslow pyramids• Checklists• Intuition and Guessing
Cumulative Effects Decisions
• Cumulative effects decision making is about:• Understanding the complexity of the
interactions between that various social, economic and environmental components
• In order to make value judgements about the effects of the activity
• While looking at how the activity fits with all other activities
Cumulative Effects Decisions
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)• Is a Process or a Set of facilitated Core Steps
that are flexible, scalable and iterative that are informed by the behavioural sciences
• It uses a set of structuring tools from the decision sciences:• Objectives hierarchies• Influence diagrams• Decision trees• Consequence tables• Structured expert judgments• Multi-attribute trade-off analysis
• Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis• It is a way for decision makers to organize and
synthesize information of a complex and conflicting nature1
• It is a collection of formal approaches to take account of multiple criteria to explore decisions that matter1
• It explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria for decision making
• It has been used worldwide in a wide range of natural resource management situations2
1. Belton, V., Stewart, T. J., (2002) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach2. Mendoza, G.A., Martins, H, (2006), Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: A critical review of methods and new
modelling paradigms
Cumulative Effects Decisions
• MCDA seeks to integrate objective measures with value judgements while making explicit and managing subjectivity1
• It is intended to1,2: • Provide structure to a problem• Take account of multiple, conflicting criteria• force hard thinking about the problem area• Provide a focus and language for discussion • Help decision maker learn about the problem, their own values and
judgements• Provide an organized synthesis of appropriate information • Find where basic differences exist in values and uncertainties• Facilitate compromise, and • Increase the level of debate to promote good decision making
1. Belton, V., Stewart, T. J., (2002) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach2. Keeney, R, (1982) Decision Analysis: An Overview
Cumulative Effects Decisions
Cumulative Effects Decisions
• Three broad types of MCDA methods• Value measurement models
• Scoring of decision options to aggregate into high level preferences
• Goal or aspiration models• Discovering options that are closest to achieving
the desired goals
• Outranking models• Alternative courses of action are compared
pairwise to select one alternative over others
Mendoza, G.A., Martins, H, (2006), Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: A critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms
Cumulative Effects Decisions
• While there are many ways to do MCDA, they reduce down to a series of similar steps
• What is the decision context?
• What are the objectives and evaluation criteria?
• What are the criteria for decision?
• What might be the consequences of the decision?
• What are the trade-offs that are needed?
• How do you implement the decision?
Decision Making Example
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Based on: Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices
The process described can be found at: http://www.structureddecisionmaking.org/Graphic from: http://bcs.wiley.com/he-bcs/Books?action=resource&bcsId=6991&itemId=1444333410&resourceId=26609
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
1. Decision Context: • It may be something like the development of a
hydrocarbon resource in an area where there are: • Multiple stakeholders including: Aboriginal / First
Nations, Landowners, Industrial Operators and sometimes other interested parties
• Wildlife areas • Municipalities, and • People in the communities who want both jobs and
outdoor recreational opportunities
• The problem is they may all want to have access to the same lands for incompatible activities
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
2. Objectives and Evaluation Criteria• Determine the important objectives for making the
decision about the land and its use• These are the things that matter and form the
framework for evaluating alternatives and making trade-offs
• They should be transparent to all stakeholders• You should expect that the objectives identified will
be contradictory
• Determine the criteria are you going to use as performance measures?• Regional, Sub-regional, Local
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• What are your objectives?• Social; Environmental; Economic; Aboriginal
/ First Nations and Stakeholder Objectives
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• Various tools are used to develop the criteria• Influence diagrams• Ends-means diagrams• Decision trees• Consequence tables• Objective hierarchies• Strategy tables• Probability trees
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Influence diagrams are conceptual models used to determine cause-
effect relationships
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
A Means-Ends diagram are used to develop the linkages between policy and
management options
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Decision trees are used to illustrate a sequence of decisions and
consequences
https://www.sampletemplates.com/business-templates/decision-tree-template.html
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
GoA. Cumulative Effects Land Management Project (2011 - unreleased)Slide prepared by Compass Resource Management
From the tools a table of objectives can be developed
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
3. Developing Alternatives• MCDM focuses on identifying, comparing and
iteratively refining alternatives
• For each objective there is a statement that show to the preferred direction of the criteria
• Alternatives are complete solutions that reflect substantially different approaches to the problem or different priorities across objectives
• Alternatives should present decision makers with real options and choices
Graphic from: http://bcs.wiley.com/he-bcs/Books?action=resource&bcsId=6991&itemId=1444333410&resourceId=26609
GoA. Cumulative Effects Land Management Project (2011 - unreleased)Slide prepared by Compass Resource Management
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
GoA. Cumulative Effects Land Management Project (2011 - unreleased)Slide prepared by Compass Resource Management
The table of objectives and evaluation criteria form the basis of consequence tables
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
4. Estimating Consequences
• Using the consequence table, this involves:• Comprehending the information for comparing
the alternatives• Clarifying the relative performance of each
alternative and their advantages / disadvantages based on the objectives and performance measures
• Understanding of how to interpret the level of uncertainty in assessment data• The consequence table may contain both
quantitative and subjective information
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• Once you understand your objectives and criteria, trade-off making tools are required• Decision elements – items in decision making
• What information do you have?• What are your alternatives? • What weight do you ascribe to each attribute?• What are you trying to achieve based on values and
preferences?
• Decision rules – how will you make the decision?• Unanimous agreement?• agreement along a scale? • majority vote?• person in-charge decides (with or without discussion)?• flip a coin?
Kaner, S. et. al. (2007) Facilitators Guide to Participatory Decision Making
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Consequence tables make information explicit evaluating the consequences of each alternative
Graphic from: http://bcs.wiley.com/he-bcs/Books?action=resource&bcsId=6991&itemId=1444333410&resourceId=26609
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Probability trees can be incorporated to correct for uncertainty in the
analysis and help to understand the likelihood of potential consequence.
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
5. Making Trade-offs
• Decision Makers must:• Ensure understanding of objectives, measures,
alternatives and consequences rank and score alternatives both with and without weighting
• Review the individual results and looks for inconsistencies
• Aggregate results and discusses areas of agreement and difference
• Provide a final ranking based on discussion• Clarify areas of agreement and disagreement and
provide reasons
Gregory, R. et al. (2012) Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• Even Swaps• Start with the consequences table
• Step 1: Eliminate Alternatives• Look for eliminate one or more of the
alternatives, start with a simple rule• If A is better then B on some objective but no worse
than B on all other objective, you can eliminate B• Option A dominates option B because option B has
disadvantages without any advantages
• Eliminate alternatives where small advantages in one criteria don’t outweigh other more important criteria
Hammond, J., Keeney, R., Raiffa, H. (1998) Even Swaps: A Method for Making Trade-offs
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• Step 2: Rank Objectives• Working objective-by-objective, rank the alternatives
with a simple ranking (1-10) that best fulfills that objective• Quantitative objectives are easier to rank then qualitative
objectives• Alternatives with one advantage are candidates for
elimination
• Step 3: Start Making Even Swaps• If every alternative for an objective is rated equal, then
ignore that objective in making your decision• If they are equivalent, they are irrelevant
• This means only critical decision factors are relevant
Hammond, J., Keeney, R., Raiffa, H. (1998) Even Swaps: A Method for Making Trade-offs
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• Step 4: Evaluate the Remaining Alternatives• If the remaining objectives are similar, decide if
the objective remains relevant to the decision, if it doesn’t drop it• This changes the way the remaining alternatives
match-up
• Step 5: Reevaluate the remaining alternatives based on the remaining objectives• There is no easy way to decide how much of one
objective to trade for another objective – it requires subjective judgement
Hammond, J., Keeney, R., Raiffa, H. (1998) Even Swaps: A Method for Making Trade-offs
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• For making the swaps• Make the easiest swaps first• Concentrate on the degree of variation between the
two alternatives and not the overall importance of the objective
• Remember the value of an change depends on what you start with • i.e. adding or subtracting an incremental amount to a large
number (such as a land mass) may be inconsequential
• Ensure your swaps are logically consistent• i.e. you are comparing approximately amounts
• Make sure you have the best information you can• It takes time to get used to making these types of
trade-offs, but the process is relatively simple
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
Cumulative Effects Decision Making Example
• None of this is new, so why don’t we use MCDA?
• Concerns with MCDA:• We tend to think of cumulative effects problems as
complicated problems and apply tools for complicated problems
• MCDA can be time consuming as the steps should be iterative and not just done once
• MCDA requires a lot of information • MCDA relies on interdisciplinary understanding and
knowledge of diverse subjects• There are fewer precedence for this type of decision
making• It often requires a trained facilitator• It sounds expensive
Cumulative Effects Decision Making
isn’t Rocket Science
It Just Takes a Different Process
Final Thought
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