cupvf - dual-frame survey among gop primary lvs in ny22 - topline data pdf

7/25/2019 CUPVF - Dual-Frame Survey Among GOP Primary LVs in NY22 - ToPLINE DATA PDF

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the polling company, inc./WomanTrendon behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund

Dual-Frame Survey among NY22 Likely Primary VotersTopline dataJune 2016

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the polling company, inc./ WomanTrendOn behalf of

Citizens United Political Victory Fund

TOPLINE DATA

Dual-Frame (30% Cell) Survey of400 Likely Primary Voters in New Yorks Twenty-Second Congressional District (NY-22)

Field Dates: June 17-18, 2016Margin of Error: 4.9%

1. Are you currently registered to vote here in New Yorkas a (ROTATE) Republican,Democrat, Independent/Unaffiliated or are you not registered to vote at all here in NewYork?

100% YES, REPUBLICAN (CONTINUED)

2. On June 28, there will be primary elections in New York for offices such as U.S. Senateand U.S. House. At this time, do you plan to... (READ AND ROTATE RESPONSECATEGORIES)

68% DEFINITELY VOTE (CONTINUED)33% PROBABLY VOTE (CONTINUED)

3. Into which of the following categories does your age fall?

2% 18-24

7% 25-3412% 35-4422% 45-5429% 55-6428% 65+


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4. Would you describe your racial or ethnic background as (READ LIST)?

93% WHITE/CAUCASIAN2% NATIVE AMERICAN1% BLACK/AFRICAN-AMERICAN1% ASIAN

* HISPANIC/LATINO

* OTHER ___________ (VOLUNTEERED)* DO NOT KNOW (VOLUNTEERED)3% REFUSED (VOLUNTEERED)

5. Region (RECORDED BY COUNTY FROM SAMPLE)

27% BROOM10% CHENANGO3% CORTLAND

11% HERKIMER8% MADISON30% ONEIDA10% OSWEGO3% TIOGA

6. Gender

52% MALE48% FEMALE


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INTRODUCTION

7. Which of the following groups of issues are most important to your vote in the New YorkRepublican Primary?(ROTATED TOP-TO-BOTTOM AND BOTTOM-TO-TOP)

35% ECONOMIC ISSUES, LIKE TAXES AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING

28% NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES, LIKE ISIS AND THE MIDDLE EAST10% SOCIAL ISSUES, LIKE HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION

8% MORAL ISSUES, LIKE ABORTION AND MARRIAGE

18% ALL OF THE ABOVE/EQUALLY IMPORTANT (VOL.)

1% NONE OF THE ABOVE (VOL.)1% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.)* REFUSED (VOL.)

NAME RECOGNITION AND FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After Iread each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and then tell me if youhave a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, orhave never heard of a particular person, just tell me and well move on. (RANDOMIZE INSECTION)

(ASK FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE): And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable)opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

8. Claudia Tenney (TEN-ee)

37% TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)21% STRONGLY FAVORABLE16% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE

27% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET)13% SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE14% STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE

22% HEARD OF, NO OPINION

11% NEVER HEARD OF

2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)* REFUSED (VOL.)


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9. George Phillips

18% TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)6% STRONGLY FAVORABLE

12% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE



52% NEVER HEARD OF2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)- REFUSED (VOL.)

10. Steve Wells

25% TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET)8% STRONGLY FAVORABLE

17% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE



29% NEVER HEARD OF

3% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)- REFUSED (VOL.)

JOB APPROVAL

11. Do you (ROTATE) approve or disapprove of the job that Richard Hanna is doingrepresenting New Yorks 22ndCongressional District in Congress? (PROBE: And wouldthat be STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT approve/disapprove?)

62% TOTAL APPROVE (NET)28% STRONGLY APPROVE34% SOMEWHAT APPROVE

25% TOTAL DISAPPROVE (NET)12% SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE13% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

13% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.)1% REFUSED (VOL.)


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PRIMARY BALLOT TESTS

12. If the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress were today, would you vote for(ROTATE ORDER OF NAMES) Claudia Tenney (Ten-ee), George Phillips, or SteveWells? (PROBE THOSE WHO SAY A CANDIDATE: And would that be DEFINITELY orPROBABLY [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME]?) (PROBE THOSE WHO SAY

UNDECIDED OR DO NOT KNOW: Toward which candidate do you lean?)

38% TOTAL CLAUDIA TENNEY (NET)23% DEFINITELY CLAUDIA TENNEY12% PROBABLY CLAUDIA TENNEY3% LEAN CLAUDIA TENNEY

26% TOTAL STEVE WELLS (NET)11% DEFINITELY STEVE WELLS13% PROBABLY STEVE WELLS2% LEAN STEVE WELLS

11% TOTAL GEORGE PHILLIPS (NET)5% DEFINITELY GEORGE PHILLIPS4% PROBABLY GEORGE PHILLIPS2% LEAN GEORGE PHILLIPS

24% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)

1% SOMEONE ELSE, PLEASE SPECIFY: ____________ (RECORDVERBATIM) (VOL.)

1% REFUSED (VOL.)


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ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICSFinally, a few confidential statistical questions for classification purposes only...

13. Which of the following best describes you: (READ AND ROTATE) (CODE ENGAGEDOR LIVING TOGETHER AS SINGLE):

70% MARRIED9% SINGLE, NEVER MARRIED9% DIVORCED9% WIDOWED2% SEPARATED

1% REFUSED (VOL.)

14. Regarding your familys annual incomePlease tell me which of the following categoriesbest describes your familys annual income. I dont need a specific amount; a broad

range will be fine.

10% BELOW $25,0006% $25,000 TO $29,9999% $30,000 TO $39,9999% $40,000 TO $49,9999% $50,000 TO $59,9996% $60,000 TO $69,9995% $70,000 TO $74,999

13% $75,000 TO $99,99920% $100,000 AND ABOVE

14% REFUSED (VOL.)

15.Are you.? (READ CATEGORIES)

36% CATHOLIC36% PROTESTANT (ASKED NEXT Q.)1% JEWISH* LDS/Latter Day Saints

5% AGNOSTIC/ATHEIST14% OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) (RECORDED VERBATIM (VOL.)

5% NONE/UNAFFILIATED (VOL.)4% REFUSED (VOL.)

16. (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAID PROTESTANT IN PREVIOUS Q.)(n=144)And would you consider yourself born-again or Evangelical?

59% YES35% NO6% DO NOT KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)


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17. Thinking for a moment about your social, economic, and political views...Do you consideryourself to be (ROTATED) conservative, moderate, or liberal?

[IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASKED] And would you consider yourself to be VERY(conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?)

64% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE (NET)38% VERY CONSERVATIVE26% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE

27% MODERATE

6% TOTAL LIBERAL (NET)5% SOMEWHAT LIBERAL2% VERY LIBERAL

1% LIBERTARIAN

3% DO NOT KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)

18. In politics today, and regardless of how you are registered, do you consider yourself to bea (ROTATED) Republican, Independent, or Democrat?

(IF REPUBLICAN ASKED, and are you a strong Republican, Tea Party Republican, no-so-strong Republican, or Independent-leaning Republican? IF DEMOCRAT, ASKED:Are you a strong Democrat, Independent-leaning Democrat, not-so-strong Democrat,strong Democrat, or progressive Democrat)?

(IF INDEPENDENT, ASKED Which way you lean, or usually vote, the Democratic or

Republican Party?)

80% TOTAL REPUBLICAN (NET)12% TEA PARTY REPUBLICAN35% STRONG REPUBLICAN10% NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN23% INDEPENDENT LEANING REPUBLICAN

9% INDEPENDENT

5% TOTAL DEMOCRAT (NET)4% INDEPENDENT LEANING DEMOCRAT

* NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT1% STRONG DEMOCRAT1% PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT

3% OTHER (VOL.)2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.)1% REFUSED (VOL.)

cupvf - dual-frame survey among gop primary lvs in ny22 - topline data pdf

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