Current and Emerging Threat

of CBRN-E Terrorism

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Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security Studies S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Nanyang Technological University

The Global Threat • Anthrax is the most favored terrorist weapon

• Two dozen groups are interested to develop CBRN

weapons

• Al Qaeda, Tawhid Wal Jihad, Jemaah Islamiyah and a few

other groups invested in the development CBRN weapons

• Saudi Cleric issued a fatwa justifying the use of CBRN

weapons in 2003

Al Qaeda Intent

• Al Qaeda developed a WMD Committee led by Mamdouth

Salim alias Abu Hajir al Iraqi by 1993

• Bin Laden requested his personal pilot Essam al Ridi al

Masri to learn crop dusting

• Procurement attempts in Sudan (Uranium canister),

Germany (red mercury), and FSU were unsuccessful

Al Qaeda’s Specialist Projects

• Al Qaeda developed separate chemical and biological warfare programs.

• Midhat Mursial al Sayid Uma alias Abu Khebab al Masri headed the chemical and toxins program in Derunda complex

• Mustafa Setmarian Nasar alias Abu Musab al Suri alias Umar Abd al Hakim and Abu Musab Al Zarkawi expanded and operationalized these projects Westward

• Al Qaeda established links with Pakistani scientists, both nuclear weapons specialists and biochemists.

Al Qaeda’s Interest in Anthrax

• Al Qaeda’s interest to manufacture Anthrax triggered by the

US Defence Secretary Cohen appearing on US television

with a five pound bag of sugar stating the dangers of

Anthrax.

• Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, Deputy leader of Al Qaeda and the

most influential strategist of the global jihad movement’s

remarks.

Al Qaeda’s Anthrax Program

• Al Qaeda recruited Dr Abdur Rauf, a British

qualified scientist at Pakistan’s CISIR to establish the

foundation for its Anthrax Program

• Dr Rauf visited Level 3 advanced security lab in the

UK and was about to gain access to the most

dangerous pathogens

First Letter

to Dr

Ayman Al

Zawahiri

from Dr

Abur Rauf

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Second Letter to

Dr Ayman Al

Zawahiri from

Dr Abur Rauf

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Al Qaeda Requested JI Assistance

• Al Qaeda leadership requested Issamudin Ridduan alias Hambali, an Indonesian cleric, to recruit a scientist

• Hambali hired Yazid Sufaat, a member of JI and KMM, who participated in Project Natal.

• Sufaat, a Malaysian retired Army Captain and a US trained biochemist in January 2001 was selected to lead the program

• Sufaat, also the owner of Medical Green Laboratories and Infocus Tech, also provided his condominium for the 9-11 planning meeting and provided sanctuary and support to three 9-11 hijackers

Al Qaeda Anthrax Program disrupted

in October 2001

• With US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda

was forced to abandon its anthrax lab in Kandahar in Oct. 2001

• Al Qaeda planned to relocate the Anthrax program to Bogor,

Indonesia

• Denial of sanctuary in Afghanistan and the arrest of Suffat by

Malaysian Special Branch ended Al Qaeda’s anthrax program

Recoveries from Anthrax lab in

Kandahar

• Equipment

• Over 100 journal papers

•Al Qaeda Biological Weapons Manual

JI-Chem-Bio Manual

• Recovered from the safe house of Taufiq Rifqi

• Manual demonstrates intent, no capability

• Manual is compiled from formulae available on the internet

• As safety measures and precautions are not taken, if the manual is used, it is likely to kill the manufacturer

• Our assessment of the manual has not been publicized

Current and Future Trends

• Over 90% of the terrorist attacks are using the gun and the

bomb

• Terrorist groups have demonstrated both the intention and

the capability to develop unconventional weapons

• Terrorist groups are only away from recruiting a

COMPETENT bio-chemist from developing a bio weapon