current and projected future emissions - side events at cop 18/cmp 8
DESCRIPTION
Contributing Authors: (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany); (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands);(COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); (World Resources Institute, USA);(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA); (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ,Netherlands); (Climate Interactive, USA); (Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom); (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria); (Tsinghua University, China).TRANSCRIPT
The Emissions Gap Report 2012
Chapter 1: Current and projected future emissions
Doha 29 November, 2012
Niklas Höhne [email protected]
Lead Authors: Niklas Höhne (Ecofys, Germany); Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
Contributing Authors: Claudine Chen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany); Michel den Elzen (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Claudio Gesteira
(COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Kelly Levin (World Resources Institute, USA); Steve Montzka (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA); Jos Olivier (Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Elizabeth Sawin (Climate Interactive, USA); Chris Taylor (Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom); Fabian Wagner (International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria); Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua University, China).
Related work of Ecofys
• Analysis of pledges, also against effort sharing approaches with Climate analytics and PIK: www.climateactiontracker.org
• Analysis of pledges against trends, incl. most recent policies with PBL and IIASA: www.ecofys.com/en/publications
• Analysis of pledges against mitigation potential with Climate Analytics and Wuppertal Institute http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/uba_ecofys_mitigation-potential-emerging-economies_side-event.pdf
• Wedging the gap, presented at ADP special event Sat, 13.00
The Emissions Gap Report 2012
Chapter 1: Current and future emissions
Doha 29 November, 2012
Niklas Höhne [email protected]
Lead Authors: Niklas Höhne (Ecofys, Germany); Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
Contributing Authors: Claudine Chen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany); Michel den Elzen (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Claudio Gesteira
(COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Kelly Levin (World Resources Institute, USA); Steve Montzka (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA); Jos Olivier (Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Elizabeth Sawin (Climate Interactive, USA); Chris Taylor (Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom); Fabian Wagner (International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria); Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua University, China).
Greenhouse gas emissions have increased to 50 GtCO2e
Pledges reduce emissions to 57 to 52 GtCO2e
Case 1: unconditional / lenient Case 2: unconditional / strict Case 3: conditional / lenient Case 4: conditional / strict
What is new compared to last year?
• No major economy has significantly changed its pledge • Some countries have clarified their assumptions and ranges, e.g. :
– Belarus expressed their 2020 target as a single 8% reduction compared to 1990 levels rather than the range 5-10%
– Kazakhstan changed their reference year from 1992 to 1990 – South Africa included a range instead of a fixed value for their BAU – South Korea updated their BAU emissions in 2020 downwards
• Included additional effects of the use of offsets of 1.5 GtCO2e in the lenient cases
• We used only models that updated the analysis: Climate Action Tracker, C-ROADS, FEEM, Grantham, OECD, PBL, UNEP Risoe
• High recent and projected emissions growth following recent global macroeconomic trends
Gap 1 to 2 GtCO2e higher compared to last year’s report
Pledges reduce emissions to 57 to 52 GtCO2e
Lenient vs. strict rules
• LULUCF accounting 0.3Gt • AAU surplus 1.8Gt • Double counting of offsets
1.5Gt
Unconditional vs. conditional pledges
• Unconditional to conditional 2 GtCO2e
Pledges and submitted actions
Pledges by country
Pledges by country – emissions per capita
The Emissions Gap Report 2012
Chapter 1: Current and projected future emissions
Doha 29 November, 2012
Niklas Höhne [email protected]
Lead Authors: Niklas Höhne (Ecofys, Germany); Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
Contributing Authors: Claudine Chen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany); Michel den Elzen (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Claudio Gesteira
(COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Kelly Levin (World Resources Institute, USA); Steve Montzka (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA); Jos Olivier (Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands); Elizabeth Sawin (Climate Interactive, USA); Chris Taylor (Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom); Fabian Wagner (International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria); Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua University, China).