current economic position and prospects of belize file copy · report no. 2423-crb current economic...

Report No. 2423-CRB

Current Economic Position andProspects of Belize FILE COPYApril 11, 1979

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

E~TOl T LL & C.FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World FVank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit: Belize Dollar

Since its creation the Belize Dollar (formerly the British HondurasDollar) was tied to sterling at the rate £1 = BZ$4.00. In May 1976the link with sterling was broken and the Belize Dollar was alignedwith the US dollar at the rate US$1.00 = BZ$2.00.

Since May 1976:

BZ$1.00 = US$0.50 orUS$1.00 = BZ$2.00

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the work of an economic mission toBelize during October 29 - November 10, 1978. The mission was coordi-nated by Murray Ross (IBRD - Consultant Senior Ecnomist) and consisted of:Peter Davies, Chief of Mission (IBRD); Christine Fallert, Economist (IBRD);Vilay Soulatha, National Accounts Specialist (IBRD); Jenaro Simpson, Economist(IMF); Ralph Melville, Agriculturalist (UNDP); Nathan Koenig, AgriculturalEconomist (UNDP); Charles Johnson, Agriculturalist (UNDP); Clarence Dunn,Agricultural Economist (UNDP); Anthony Edwards, Industrial Economist (UNDP);Amadeo Francis, Industrial Promotion Specialist (UNDP); Lawrence Wells,Industrial Specialist (UNDP); Hendrik van Helden, Transport Engineer(UNDP); and Peter Kendell, Tourism Specialist (UNDP).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

MAP

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .............................. i- vii

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND ...... ...................... 1

A. Resource Endowments ..... .............. 1B. Developments Prior to 1972 ...................... 1C. Economic Developments, 1972-77 ....... .. 1......... D. Events in 1978 .................................. 7

II. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGY ...................... 9

A. Introduction .................................... 9B. Agriculture ...................... 9C. Industry .................... .................... 16D. Tourism ......................................... 22E. Transportation ............... .. ................. 26F. Economic and Social Infrastructure ....... ....... 30

III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ..................... 41

IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 1979-83 ........................... 46

A. Output and Expenditure ........... .. ............. 46B. Financing of Public Sector Investment .......... . 47C. Balance of Payments ............ .. ............... 49D. Conclusion ..... ................................. 50

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - RELIZE

AREA 2 POPULATION DENSITY

22,960 kmo 129,800 (mid-1977) 6 per IanRate of Growth: 1.3 (from 1970to 1977) 15 per km2 of arable land

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1977) HEALTH (1975)Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 42.8 Population per physician 3144

Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 6.1 Population per hospital bed 207

Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 45.1

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP% of national income, highest quintile .. % owned by top 10% of owners

lowest quintile .. % owned by smallest 107 of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1960)

7 of population - urban .. % of population - urban 51.3- rural .. - rural 4.4

NUTRITION (1977) EDUCATIONCalorie intake as 7. of requirements 108.0 Adult literacy rate % (1960) 86.6

Per capita protein intake 58.1 Primary school enrollment %

GNP PER CAPITA in 1977 : US $810

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1977 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (7. constant prices)

US $ Mln. 7 1972-76 1977

GNP at Market Pr4 es 98.6 100.0 5.3 3.0Gross Domestic investment 31.5 31.9Gross National Saving 9.7 9.8Current Account Balance -21.8 22.1Exports of Goods, NFS 72.4 73.4 3.8 29.6Imports of Goods, NFS 93.4 94.7

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE ANDPRODUCTIVITY IN 1977

Value Added, g_tfln. 7

Agriculture 20.8 23.1Industry 20.4 22.7Services 48.7 54.2Unallocated

Total/Average 89.9 100.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCEConsolidated Public Sector Central Government

( BZS Mln) . of GDP (BZs Mln.) % of GDP

1977 1977 - 1977 1977

Current Receipts 44 ' 2135Current Expenditure 38.. 3 18.7

Current Surplus -7 O.9 5.7 2.9

Capital Expenditures 26.4 12.9 23.4 11.4External Assistance (net) 13.2 6.4 13.3 6.5

1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1977 market prices, calculated by the same conversiontechnique as the 1978 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are

at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered.

not availablenot applicable

of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - BELIZE

MONEY. CREDIT and PRICES 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977emilion BZ$ outstanding end period)

Money and Quasi Money 37.1 43.4 58.1 67.2 69.6 73.9Bank Credit to Public Sector -2.0 -1.8 -3.2 -3.4 1.8 5.7Bank Credit to Private Sector 47.3 49.2 60.3 71.7 85.9 86.3

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Monaey as 7 of GDP 39.1 37.8 36.6 34.8 37.5 36.1General Price Index (1963 - 100)

Annual percentage changes in:General Price IndexBank credit to Public Sector .. 10.0 77.8 -6.3 . 316.7

Bank credit to Private Sector .. 4.0 22,6 18.9 19.8 4.7

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1979-77)

1979 1976 1977 US $ Mln 7(Millions US $

Exports of Goods, NFS 75.1 55.3 72.4 Sugar 26.9 46.1Imports of Goods, NFS 90.0 82.0 93.4 Garments 6.5 11.1Resource Gap (deficit 7-) -149 -26.7 -21.0 Citrus Products 2.6 4.5

Fish Products 3.0 5.1All other comodities 19.3 33.1

Total 58.3 100.0Factor Pavmpnts (ret) -0.2 -2.2 -3.8Net Transfers 1 2q s 'A7 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31. 1977Balance on Current Account -22.2 -26.7 -21.8 U $ Kl

Net MLT Borrowing 3.3 1.5 2.6 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 17.4Disbursement 4.6 3.0 3.8 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt.Amortizatioui -1.3 -1.5 -1.2 Total outstanding & Disbursed

Capital Grants 4.3 4.1 4.2 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1977Other Capital (net) 20.2 12.4 17.7

Increase in Reserves (t) - -7 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 2.5Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Gross Reserves (end year) 14.5 10.7 14.3 Total outstanding & DisbursedNet Reserves (end year) 13.5 4.8 7.7

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING (Million US $):

IBRD IDA

Outstanding & DisbursedUndisbursed

Since .May 1976 Outstanding incl. UndisbursedUS $ 1.00 BZ$2.OcBZ$ 1.00 - US $0.50

1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

not available

not applicable

February 28, 1979

EPD/PRD

IBRD 13503

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BELIZE

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Background

i. Belize is a self governing colony of the United Kingdom situatedon the Yucatan Peninsula of Central America. GNP per capita in 1977 wasapproximately US$760 and with a population of only 130,000, it exhibits oneof the lowest population densities in the world, less than 15 per sq. mile.It possesses a strong agricultural potential but is prone to hurricanes.There is a labor shortage in the rural areas but in the urban areas pocketsof relatively high unemployment exist.

ii. The 1970s saw a strong economic performance with real GDP growingat an average of about 5%, 4% per capita annually, between 1972 and 1977.The backbone of this growth was the increase in sugar production althoughthe industrial sector also performed well with the expansion of an enclavegarment industry and introduction of a number of basic import substitutingenterprises. The decline in world sugar prices proved detrimental to theeconomy but did not adversely affect growth. In 1978, buoyed by a recordsugar crop, real GDP growth of 6% was achieved despite the impact of Hurri-cane Greta which caused havoc in September 1978.

iii. The public finances have remained sound throughout the period1972-77, reflecting the buoyancy of the economy and effective budgetarycontrol. Public sector savings averaged 4% of GDP and were adequate tofinance an average of one-third of public sector capital expenditures.The strength of the Central Government, however, was partially offsetby the weakness of the rest of public sector which consistently recordedcurrent deficits.

Development Strategy and Issues

iv. Belize faces an unusual dilemma in its attempts to furtherdevelop the economy and increase the social and economic well being ofits people. The country possesses known physical resources which arepotentially capable of providing a good standard of living for the wholepopulation. The possible existence of exploitable petroleum and natural gasfurther enhances the country's potential resource bases. However, thecountry with a relatively untrained population of only 130,000 does notpossess the human resources to develop this physical potential. Not onlyare there insufficient agricultural laborers to harvest sugarcane and citrusbut also there is a dearth of suitably trained and experienced technicians,planners and managers to design and implement proposed and existing projects.This situation is further complicated by the existence of a pool of unskilledunemployed in the urban areas who are averse to agricultural work. Mechani-zation and expatriate technicians can only partly cope with this problem. Iffurther development is to be achieved and if the benefits therefrom are toaccrue equitably throughout the population, the Government needs to foster agreater and broader involvement of the people in agriculture. This will notbe an easy task and may take a long time.

Agriculture

v. The potential of agriculture is large; only 10% of arable landis cultivated and soils are suitable for the production of a wide rangeof tropical and other agricultural products. Nevertheless, despite theimportance and potential of the sector, the country is far from selfsufficient in food. The lack of manpower is a serious constraint to thegrowth of the sector. As a result, although highly mechanized operationswill be feasible in some instances, it is recommended that the Governmentconcentrates the bulk of its efforts on the development of the mediumsized commercial family farm. Such a policy is also likely to lead to anefficient scale of production and to disseminate the benefits of developmentto a broad section of the population.

vi. If the potential of the sector is to be tapped the followingmeasures will be needed:

(i) the Extension Service needs to be expanded and strengthened.Improved agricultural research and greater availability ofagricultural credit will also be required.

(ii) the capabilities of the Marketing Board will need to beimproved with particular attention being paid to marketingof exports.

(iii) the Government will need to take measures to improve theinvestment climate if it is to continue to attract privateforeign capital and technical expertise.

(iv) a change in tax legislation is required to reduce theincentive that exists for holding undeveloped land.

(v) a unified soil and water conservation program is neededin order to safeguard the nation's natural resources.

Industry

vii. Given the considerable potential for agricultural developmentthere is clearly scope for increased agricultural processing. There alsoexist good possibilties for more enclave type ventures, and for additionalsmall import substituting industries. To build up these industries itwill be necessary:

(i) To establish a higher degree of business confidence, bothlocal and foreign, in the long term investment climate;

(ii) To revise the present system of price controls;

(iii) To give greater priority to the development of industrialestates; and

- iii -

(iv) To establish an investment promotion unit on the U.S.mainland.

Tourism

viii. The existing tourist sector is based upon three distinct attrac-tions: the Cayes; the Mayan ruins and the tropical flora and fauna.To date, however, tourism has not played a significant role in the economy.A potential for further development of the sector exists but directionand impetus will be needed from the Government. The first step that isrequired is the drawing up of a development plan for tourism under technicalassistance and a strengthening of the Tourist Board.

Economic Infrastructure

ix. Substantial investments have been and are in the process of beingmade in the upgrading of main roads. When the program is completed therewill be a national highway system more than adequate for the existingand potential traffic densities. Further feeder roads, however, willbe required if the agricultural sector is to be fully developed but itis proposed that such roads should be constructed in coordination withagricultural projects to minimize infrastructural investments. Externalcommunications are basically adequate. New port facilities are underconstruction in Belize City; further expansion is unlikely to be necessaryas Belize City is expected to develop essentially as a feeder port to thenew modern deepwater port at Puerto Cortes, Honduras. International airaccess is good although a number of additional investments may be requiredat Belize City International Airport in the future. An expansion of capa-city is required for both electricity and telephones.

Social Infrastructure

x. The social infrastructure in Belize is in a worse conditionthan would be expected given the country's current level of per capitaincome. The lack of adequate water supply and waste disposal in particularposes a danger to public health. An ongoing Canadian financed scheme willimprove conditions in Belize City but finance is still required to completethe full project. Substantial investments are required to build up thehousing stock which has been neglected and is deteriorating. It is prefer-able that Government concentrate its efforts on providing housing for thelower income groups with middle income families using financing from privateresources. Continued attention will need to be paid to reducing constructioncosts which may possibly be assisted by the bulk purchase of importedbuilding materials.

xi. The rapid increase in the school age population has createda constraint in the education system, especially in the availability ofprimary school places. This problem has been exacerbated by the maldis-tribution of trained teachers and post primary school places which hasencouraged migration from rural to urban areas. A number of new secondary

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schools to be concentrated in the rural areas are included in the proposedprogram. An increased emphasis on vocationally oriented education andtraining is of high priority, with particular attention being required to bepaid to agriculture both in schools and other training institutions. Addi-tional investments are also required in the health sector as a matter ofpriority. The proposed program focuses on rural health centers and environ-mental health but there is also a pressing need to construct a new hospitalin Belize City.

Public Sector Investment Program

xii. The public sector investment program of the Government of Belizefor 1979-83 represents total capital expenditures by external agencies andby Government. The list of projects includes those with assured externalfunding as well as projects for which external financing has yet to besecured. The proposed projects reflect the interests and priorities ofGovernment. The projects identified in the several sectors are not yet allsupported by complete technical, economic and financial feasibility studies,however. These estimates, therefore, of total projected public investmentare made subject to the completion of these studies and on the assumptionthat they will confirm the feasibility of these projects.

xiii. The program emphasizes the expansion of the productive base of theeconomy and the development of social and economic infrastructure. In theearlier years the program envisages the completion of a number of largeongoing infrastructural projects such as the Belize City Port, the NorthernHighway and Belize City Water and Sewerage Phase I. The number of directlyproductive schemes, mainly in agriculture, increases as the infrastructuralinvestments are completed. A banana expansion program and a regionalgrain/soya project are expected to commence by 1980. In the latter part ofthe period, investments are designed to foster production of tobacco, live-stock, cassava and coconuts and to build up forestry and deep sea fishingenterprises.

xiv. The proposed public sector investment program calls for totalexpenditures averaging 24% of GDP throughout the five year period. Expendi-tures are expected to peak in 1979 before declining consistently in realterms through 1983. Two-thirds of the capital expenditures are projectedto be made in the productive sectors--agriculture, industry, tourism,transport, power and communications--with the first three sectors receivingalmost 45% of total outlays. The relative importance of agricultureincreases from 20% of the program in 1979 to almost 50% by 1983. Imple-mentation of the proposed investment program will require that contractorsand managers continue to be provided from external sources since the neces-sary manpower is not available in Belize. The Government recognizes thisfact and has expressed its willingness to use foreign contractors and tolet projects be closely supervised by donors. Technical support to theGovernment is essential for preparation of many of the projects whichare currently at the concept stage.

v

Economic Prospects

xv. The prospects for both short- and medium-term growth appear good.In 1979 the economy is expected to be able to achieve a 4 to 5% growth inreal GDP as the agricultural sector recovers from the impact of HurricaneGreta although sugar production is expected to decline as a result of anoutbreak of smut. During the period 1980-83 real GDP growth is projectedto increase slightly to an average of 5% per annum, 3 1/2% per capita,primarily as a result of increased output of sugar and bananas and furtherexpansion of the enclave garment industry.

xvi. If the Government is able to restore confidence in the economyand if it is able to implement-its investment program as projected, grossinvestment is projected to peak in 1979 at 46% of GDP before declining to37% of GDP by 1983. Such levels of investment are expected to build up theeconomic infrastructure and the country's productive capacity and place theeconomy in a position to sustain at least a 5% growth rate for the rest ofthe 1980s. The strong growth performance is expected to permit real con-sumption to grow at an average of 3.6% per annum over the period.

xvii. The labor force is projected to continue to grow at 1.2% perannum through 1983. As a result, 3,000 new entrants will be seeking jobsduring the period in addition to the 1,600 already estimated as unemployed.Public construction is likely to create a number of temporary jobs inurban areas and private investment in manufacturing about 450 jobs, althoughmany of these are earmarked for female laborers who are already in shortsupply. The major job creation impact of the public investment program withits emphasis on agriculture, is likely to be in the rural areas. If theoverall employment situation is to be improved over the period, internalmigration to the towns, particularly Belize City, must not increase andthe people will have to develop more favorable attitudes towards engagingin direct cultivation of agricultural resources.

xviii. The public finances have consistently been able to produce alocal contribution to the public sector investment program but, with thefall in the world sugar price and the deteriorating financial position ofthe rest of the public sector, this contribution has declined in recentyears. This has been overcome to a degree by increasing Government indebted-ness to the domestic financial system. The public sector is now faced witha large public investment program requiring substantial local contributionsat a time when the domestic financial system, if it is to adequately supplycredit to the private sector and maintain foreign reserves, is no longer ina position to continue to supply large amounts of financing to the publicsector.

xix. Public sector capital expenditures totaling BZ$361.4 millionare projected for 1979-83. It is anticipated that external sources offinance will continue to cover a large but declining proportion of theinvestment program. In 1979 external loans and grants, are projected tototal BZ$63.7 million, 87% of the program, declining to BZ$57.4 million, 73%of the program by 1983. This implies gross external disbursements of

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BZ$281.4 million (US$140.7 million). Of this amount 29% has already beencommitted to specific projects, including hurricane rehabilitation. Theremaining BZ$200.2 million (US$100.1 million) remains to be arranged fromexternal sources.

xx. On the basis of the approved budget and projected economic per-formance, public sector savings are projected to increase from 1.5% of GDP,in 1978 to 2.7% of GDP in 1979. The public investment program for 1979requires that BZ$11.1 million be found from local resources. The Governmentis proposing to raise BZ$2 million from the commercial banking system tofinance part of this counterpart even though this may lead to a slightreduction in the international reserves of the financial system during 1979.A gap of BZ$2 million, less than 0.8% of GDP, remains. This amount could becovered from the Caribbean Development Facility (CDF) with the funds beingspecifically earmarked for the local cost contributions of ongoing externallyfinanced development projects.

xxi. The decline in the level of public sector capital expendituresfrom 1980 to 1983 is not expected to reduce the required local financingcontributions; a total of BZ$81.7 million is projected for the four years.On the basis of projected economic growth, if the existing effective bud-getary control is maintained and assuming that no new revenue measures areintroduced, the central government current surplus is projected to increaseto BZ$17.3 million, 4% of GDP, by 1983. Central government savings for thefour-year period are projected to cover nearly 19% of total public sectorcapital expenditures. However, the rest of the public sector has in recentyears been a significant dissaver. If the public investment program is tobe adequately financed this position needs to be reversed at an early date.To achieve this the following measures are necessary:

(i) the Belize Electricity Board needs to be placed on a financiallyviable footing. This will require a substantial increase intariffs and improved management capabilities.

(ii) the losses incurred by the Banana Control Board need to beeliminated.

(iii) the proposed Social Security Fund will have to introduced as soonas possible.

xxii. Nevertheless, further measures will also be required if thepublic investment program is to be adequately financed. The increase indomestic credit to the public sector was so rapid in 1977 and 1978 that itis projected that the domestic financial system will not be in a position toincrease credit to the public sector at all between 1980 and 1983. Con-sequently, the central government will need to take a number of measures inorder to increase its current account surplus by a total of BZ$13.3 millionover four years. It is recommended that the measures be in the form of apackage which should concentrate on taxes on expenditures, particularlythose on imports. The required measures average approximately 1% of GDP andare expected to increase projected public sector savings to BZS14.9 million,5% of GDP in 1980, rising to 5.7% of GDP in 1983.

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xxiii. The surge in investment expenditure in 1979 is expected to bereflected directly in an increased import bill and a wider current accountdeficit which is projected to reach US$53 million, 40% of GDP. However,a strong export performance and the gradual decline in investment isexpected to reduce the current deficit through 1983, when it is projectedto be US$42 million, 19% of GDP. If the inflow of concessional publiccapital assistance turns out as projected and if private capital inflowsare maintained at levels even slightly lower than those attained in recentyears, the current account deficit can be financed adequately and netinternational reserves maintained. The external debt service ratio isprojected to remain stable at about 2% between 1978 and 1983. Even thoughsubstantial external financing is projected for the period, continued growthof GDP and export receipts are likely to ensure that external debt servicingwill not become a burden in the foreseeable future and that Belize willcontinue to be creditworthy for external borrowing on conventional terms.

Conclusions

xxiv. The economic prospects of Belize indicate that a continued stronggrowth performance can be expected through 1983. If the public sectorinvestment program is implemented efficiently and without delay and ifthe Government succeeds in restoring confidence in the private sector,a sound base should be created for possibly even more rapid growth inthe late 1980s. However, despite the basic strength of the public finances,a number of additional measures will be required if the public sectorinvestment program is to be adequately financed.

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

A. Resource Endowments

1. Belize is a self-governing colony of the United Kingdom situatedon the Yucatan Peninsula of Central America bordered by Mexico on the northand Guatemala on the west and south. It has an area of 8,866 square miles,a Caribbean sea coastline of 174 miles and a breadth at its widest point of68 miles and is sheltered by the longest barrier reef in the Western Hemis-phere. The population in 1977 is estimated at 132,370 implying one of thelowest population densities in the world, less than 15 per square mile. Themain physical features are a northern low-lying plain which is swampy nearthe coast but rises to a plateau in the west, and a southern mountainousmass -- the Mayan mountains -- which falls away rapidly to the coast. Soilsare suitable for production of a wide range of crops and the country possesseslarge forest resources. Rainfall varies from 50 inches in the north to150-170 inches in the south; seasonality requires that irrigation is neededfor the regular production of certain crops. The country is particularlyprone to hurricanes, having been hit seven times since 1955. Little isknown about the mineral resources of Belize, no commercial mineral exploita-tion is undertaken but there are good prospects for the discovery of oil andcommercial drilling is taking place.

B. Developments Prior to 1972

2. Real GDP growth of 4.5% per annum was experienced during the1960s, a per capita growth of less than 2%. The economy, assisted byBritish aid, recovered from the devastation of Hurricane Hattie which hit in1961 and the capital of the country was moved from Belize City to the newlyconstructed inland city of Belmopan. In the private sector, the purchaseand expansion of sugar mills by the British firm of Tate and Lyle greatlyaccelerated sugar exports, which formed the backbone of the growth per-formance, and the entrance of a new commercial bank stimulated bankingactivities.

C. Economic Developments, 1972-77

Output and Expenditure

3. Sugar forms the backbone of the productive economy, its cultivationand production contributing almost 16% of GDP in 1977. Despite the country'sagricultural potential, however, agriculture, forestry and fishing (whichexcludes sugar milling and citrus canning) produce only 23% of GDP and manu-facturing 14%. The service sector was the largest contributing some 54% of

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GDP. The economy is highly dependent upon trade with import payments andexport receipts comprising an exceptionally high 162% of GDP. 1/ GNP percapita in 1977 was approximately US$760.

4. The Belizean economy expanded strongly and consistently between1972 and 1977, real growth averaging nearly 5% a year despite the interna-tional recession. Growth peaked at 9% in 1974 and slowed slightly to 3% in1976 and 1977. The boom in sugar prices in 1974 and 1975 produced anadditional bonus in the form of a gain from the terms of trade although theeconomy is now being constrained by the low prevailing world prices. Growthhas been concentrated in the productive sectors. Agricultural outputincreased at almost 5% a year as sugar production expanded by over 30% and abanana industry was established. Manufacturing, however, provided the majorimpetus to growth increasing at over 9% per annum as a result of the estab-lishment of a number of basic import-substituting industries and an export-oriented garment factory. Services lagged behind the rest of the economyexhibiting only a 4% annual growth rate.

5. Consumption has averaged 87% and investment 30% of GDP between1972 and 1977. Investment peaked in 1976 at 37% of GDP when increases ininventories alone accounted for 6% of GDP. Real consumption increasedcommensurately with GDP and is estimated to have grown at about 5% perannum. Private investment, especially in manufacturing, remained buoyantthrough 1976 when it reached over 20% of GDP but fell back in 1977 asinvestors perceived an uncertainty as to their role in Belize. Belizeexhibited a strong savings performance throughout the period with domesticsavings peaking at BZ$34 million, 18% of GDP, in 1975 when sugar prices wereat a maximum. Substantial remittances of profits, however, reduced nationalsavings to 11%. Lower sugar prices cut domestic savings to an average of 9%of GDP in 1976 and 1977.

Trade and Balance of Payments

6. Belize's open economy and relatively heavy dependence upon externalprivate investment have led to current account deficits in the balanceof payments averaging over 20% of GDP throughout the period 1972-77. Over80% of these deficits have been financed by private capital inflows with thebalance being covered by public capital in the form of development assistance.Substantial increases in export earnings resulting from the sugar priceincreases in 1974 and 1975 were not able to reduce the persistent currentaccount deficit as the large part of the windfall flowed out of the economyin the form of profits and dividends. Nevertheless, during these years,the capital inflow exceeded the current account deficit and gross interna-tional reserves increased from US$7.6 million at the end of 1972 to US$16million at the end of 1975, equivalent to nine weeks of imports. The

1/ Belize City Port is used as the port of importation for certain areas ofMexico. However, even if re-exports are netted out, trade still accountsfor over 125% of GDP.

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economic slowdown and decline in the terms of trade in 1976 saw the currentaccount deficit reach US$26.7 million (29% of GDP) despite a drastic declinein factor payments abroad. Capital inflows dwindled with the result thatthe deficit was largely financed by a US$8.7 million fall in internationalreserves. An improved export performance in 1977 reduced the currentdeficit nearer to the historical average at 21% of GDP. Capital inflowsrecovered sufficiently to permit net international reserves to increase byUS$2.7 million.

7. Export receipts are dominated by the performance of sugar which,together with molasses, comprised over 55% of domestic exports in 1977.Sugar exports increased from 67,000 tons in 1972 to 75,000 tons in 1975.Drought cut production in 1976 and exports fell to 53,000 tons in 1976before recovering to 77,000 tons in 1977. Belize has a quota of 41,000 tonsfor the US/EEC preferential market but still has to rely on the world marketprice for the balance of her exports. The value of sugar exports peaked in1975 at US$40 million, four times the 1972 level, but declined sharplythereafter, and in 1977 only reached US$24 million. Total domestic exportsincreased at over 6.5% per annum in real terms over the period. Apart fromsugar, garments and bananas were mainly responsible for the growth. Exportsby the enclave garment industry increased at 30% a year and the newlyestablished banana industry achieved exports of US$1.5 million in 1977.Transit trade, mainly to Mexico, grew threefold in value between 1972 and1977 and increased more rapidly than output 1972-77. Merchandise importsincreased from an average of about 70% of GDP between 1972 and 1974 to over85% between 1975 and 1977. The expansion stems from the expanding entrepottrade, the rise in the price of oil imports and the increase in investment.

8. External debt service has posed few problems to date to Belizebecause most development assistance has been from the UK in grant form.Outstanding and disbursed external public debt at the end of 1977 reachedBZ$34.9 million, 17% of GDP, 40% of which was held by the Caribbean Develop-ment Bank. Most debt has been contracted long-term at concessional interestrates; only 2% is held by commercial institutions. The debt service ratioin 1977 was 4%.

Public Finances

9. The public finances in Belize have remained sound throughoutthe period 1972-77, reflecting the buoyancy of the economy and effectivebudgetary control. Public sector savings averaged 4% of GDP and wereadequate to finance an average of one-third of public sector capitalexpenditures. The strength of the Central Government, however, waspartially offset by the weakness of the rest of the public sector whichconsistently recorded current deficits.

10. The Central Government's performance has been the cornerstoneof the public sector finances. Its current surplus increased annuallythrough 1975 from BZ$2.4 million (15% of current expenditures) to BZ$12.6million (46% of current expenditures) but then declined in 1976 and 1977reaching BZ$5.7 million (15% of current expenditures). Current revenuesmore than doubled between 1972 and 1975 spurred by increasing economic

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activity and escalating sugar earnings. The relative slowdown of theeconomy in 1976 and 1977 together with falling sugar prices caused revenuesto stagnate and no new measures were introduced to compensate. Tax revenueshave, however, remained elastic increasing from 17% of GDP in 1972 to 20% in1977. Central government current expenditures have remained fairly wellunder control increasing from 19% of GDP to 21% in 1977. Low wage awardsled wages and salaries to decline slightly as a proportion of total currentexpenditures despite an average annual increase of 3% in the number of civilservants, and expenditure on goods and services were held proportionatelyconstant.

11 The Central Government has also played the major role in publicsector investment, undertaking an average of 80% of public capital expendi-tures between 1972 and 1977. Central government capital expendituresincreased from BZ$8.1 million in 1972 to BZ$23.4 million in 1977, from 10%of GDP to 13%; further increases being held back by an inability to imple-ment projects rather than by lack of financial resources. External loansand grants financed an average of 80% of capital expenditures but thispercentage dropped to 65% in 1977 as the Government strove to undertake anincreasing number of smaller projects without external financial assistance.Net domestic financing remained negative each year, except in 1977, with theCentral Government providing finance to cover the investment program of therest of the public sector. In 1977 the Central Government, faced with adeclining current surplus and an expanded investment program, reverted toborrowing from both the Monetary Authority and the rest of the financialsystem.

12. The rest of the public sector, 1/ in contrast, has exhibiteda far from satisfactory financial performance producing, in aggregate,a deficit each year 1972-77. Prior to 1975 the deficits were small, amaximum of BZ$0.3 million in 1973, but they jumped sharply in 1975 andreached an unacceptably high BZ$3.9 million in 1977. The Belize ElectricityBoard has run consistent deficits with unrealistically low tariffs, theMarketing Board, after showing a balanced budget prior to 1976, incurred aloss of BZ$1 million in 1976/77 primarily in corn trading and the relativelynewly established Banana Control Board has run growing deficits resultingfrom setting up costs and unnecessarily high subsidies to growers. Whilethe Government is aware of the increasing state enterprise deficits thereis, unfortunately, a general unwillingness to raise public utility rates asthese are considered to be inflationary and a deterrent to investment. Thisattitude must be changed if the state enterprises are to become financiallyviable and in a position to raise and service loans for their own investmentprograms. The deficits of the rest of public sector have been coveredprimarily by borrowing from the domestic financial system. The capitalprogram is financed by Central Government who, in some instances, borrowsabroad on behalf of the enterprises.

1/ Consisting of local government and six public enterprises.

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The Financial Sector

13. The financial system of Belize consists of the Monetary Authority,four branches of foreign commercial banks, the Reconstruction and DevelopmentCorporation (RECONDEV), the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the DFCInvestment Company, the Government Savings Bank, and a number of creditunions. In late 1976, all assets and liabilities of the old Board ofCommissioners, the institution formerly in charge of issuing currency andholding international reserves, were transferred to the Monetary Authorityof Belize.

14. The period 1973-75 was characterized by a moderate rate of growthof domestic credit supported by a far faster increase in liabilities to theprivate sector which resulted in an accumulation of over BZ$50 million ininternational reserves. A second characteristic of the period was the devel-opment of financial institutions other than banks, such as credit unions, andthe establishment of new financial intermediaries such as the DFC. Duringthose three years, the DFC and the credit unions granted more credit thanthe commercial banks, with the private sector being the only beneficiary, asthe Central Government and the rest of the public sector increased theircreditor position vis-a-vis the financial system. The credit expansion wasentirely financed with domestic resources accruing to the financial systemwith little resort to foreign borrowing. The rate of accrual of domesticresources allowed for a sizable accumulation of international reserves.

15. The picture changed drastically in 1976, when sugar prices,which had almost doubled the previous year, fell precipitously. The declinein export value and the slowdown in the pace of economic activity werereflected in minor additions to money and quasi-money which increased byless than 7%; domestic credit, however, grew by 29% with the commercialbanks taking the lead, the expansion being financed with a drawdown of netinternational reserves. In 1977, declining private investment curtailed thedemand for private credit which increased by less than 1% despite a 13%increase in liabilities to the private sector. The public sector, however,took advantage of the excess liquidity position of the financial inter-mediaries to place government paper, while some state enterprises infinancial difficulties resorted to overdraft facilities. The creditexpansion was amply financed with the increase in liabilities to the privatesector and there was an accumulation of international reserves.

Wages and Prices

16. No official price indices are published or compiled in Belize.However, given the openness of the economy domestic prices will tend toreflect international trends and changes in the external value of the BelizeDollar. Prior to May 1976, the Belize Dollar was tied to Sterling and conse-quently, price increases will have reflected the depreciation of the b, pro-bably averaging approximately 30% in 1973 and 1974 before declining to nearer15% in 1975. In May 1976, the Belize Dollar was realigned to the US dollar.Since that time, prices can be expected to have increased by about 7-8% perannum.

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17. The wage and salary data collected by the Labor Department indicatethat earnings of workers in the private sector have kept pace with the costof living over the past four years while government employees have apparentlylost ground. In 1976, private sector wage raises ranged from 20-40%. Publicsector salaries are estimated to have risen by an average of about 13% a yearbetween 1973 and 1977 which is probably slightly less than the increase inconsumer prices. Members of the largest private labor organization in thecountry, the Southern Christian Union, meanwhile, negotiated increasesfor citrus workers of 18-33% in 1977/78. Collective agreements by most ofthe private unions provided for raises of 5-15% in 1978 and the same for1979. An increase of 20%, 10% of which was retroactive to October 1978, wasawarded to public servants in January 1979. Since the last salary adjustmentwas in 1976, the increase is about one-third less than would be required tomaintain the 1976 real earnings of public servants.

Population and Employment

18. The population of Belize is estimated to have grown from 120,940at end-1970 to 132,270 in December 1977, an annual average rate of 1.3%.The crude birth rate has climbed fairly steadily over the period to 43 perthousand in 1977, while the crude death rate has fluctuated around 6.00,resulting in a 3.4% rate of natural increase over the period. Net migra-tion, measured as arrivals minus departures, represents an increasingoutflow of residents. Precise data on migration are unavailable, since theborders with Mexico and Guatemala are monitored haphazardly and a significantnumber of Belizeans are thought to emigrate illegally to the United States.However, as the influx of migrant farm workers to Belize is largely seasonaland would tend to be netted-out of the population figures, the estimate of alarge net outflow of Belizeans during the period is probably realistic. Theconsistent emigration among persons of working age and the extremely highbirth rate have resulted in a very broad-based population pyramid for Belizein which at least 50% of the residents are below the age of 15.

19. Virtually, no data have been collected in a systematic way onemployment and the labor force since the 1970 Census. In that year, thetotal number of employed persons was counted as 31,465 or 96% of the laborforce. Assuming a continuation of the increase in labor participationwhich occurred through the 1960s, the labor force in 1977 is estimated atabout 41,000 or 63% of the population over the age of 14. Governmentestimates in the Development Plan place employment at 39,000 in 1976,indicating less than 4% unemployment in the latter half of the decade. Jobcreation may have grown by the implied 3.7% annual rate since 1970 as aresult of the bringing of new acreage into cultivation, particularly forrice and bananas, and the introduction of several major industries. Indica-tions are that the proportion of employment accounted for by agricultureincreased from 33% in 1970 to about 40% in 1976.

20. Because of the extremely low density of population, the youthfulage structure, and the tendency of Belizeans to seek nonagricultural employ-ment, a serious labor shortage exists in the agricultural sector, requiringthe importation of seasonal workers from the neighboring states. With a

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negligible unemployment of Belizeans in the rural areas, an overall unemploy-ment figure of 4% implies that about 10% of the urban labor force is withoutjobs. The vast majority of the idle workers are concentrated in BelizeCity, where one-third of the total population and two-thirds of the urbanpopulation reside. Since the country has an excess labor demand in theleading sector, the coexistence of large numbers of idle workers, most ofthem young, in the towns is a structural and attitudinal problem which thepublic investment program can only partially address.

D. Events in 1978

21. 1978 saw continued economic growth despite the impact of HurricaneGreta which hit Belize in September. Preliminary estimates indicate thatreal GDP grew by 6% in the wake of a record sugar crop of 114,000 tons (20%higher than the previous record). Hurricane Greta prevented even greatergrowth causing an officially estimated BZ$43 million of damage. The hurri-cane hit in the region of Dangriga severely damaging the grapefruit, orangeand banana crops. The ensuing tidal wave flooded Belize City to a depth offour feet, creating much damage to private property. Prior to the hurricane,a record banana crop and an extremely good citrus crop had been anticipated.Manufacturing output also increased by over 10%; although dominated by sugar,good progress was also made by garments, fertilizer and flour.

22. Export receipts were also heavily dominated by the performance ofsugar, growing by 15% with prices remaining constant. Imports meanwhileescalated, spurred by an 80% increase in public capital expenditures andimports to repair damage from the hurricane, growing in value by an estimated30%, part of which was financed by insurance claims paid abroad totaling atleast BZ$15 million. Nevertheless, the net impact is estimated to have beenan increase in the current account deficit of the balance of payments toUS$32 million, 28% of GDP.

23. Central Government finances saw a marginal improvement over1977, as a 21% increase in revenues slightly outpaced expenditure increasesleading to an estimated current account surplus of BZ$7.2 million. The restof the public sector's position continued to deteriorate despite an improve-ment performance by the Marketing Board. The deficit of the Belize Electri-city Board increased and the Belize Telecommunication Authority also posteda loss. The Banana Control Board, badly hit by the hurricane, slipped intodeeper financial trouble. Public sector savings, however, increased fromBZ$1.8 million in 1977 to an estimated BZ$3.5 million, 1.5% of GDP. Themajor development in the public finances was the almost 80% growth in publicsector capital expenditures brought about primarily by the eventual commence-ment of construction of the CDB financed port and CIDA-financed water andsewerage scheme, both in Belize City. Public sector capital expendituresreached an estimated 21% of GDP in 1978 increasing from 15% in 1977.

24. Prior to the hurricane, the continued economic growth has led toa strong growth in the money supply, almost 30% on an annual basis, which

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negligible had been matched by a less than 10% growth in private sectorcredit. The Central Government and the rest of the public sector bothborrowed heavily from the financial system in order to finance the increasedinvestment program and the increased deficits of the enterprises. Thisincreased borrowing was insufficient to prevent a buildup of foreign assets.After the hurricane, the inflow of insurance payments created furtherliquidity in the financial system.

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II. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGY

A. Introduction

25. Belize faces an unusual dilemma in its attempts to further developthe economy and increase the social and economic wellbeing of its people.The country possesses known physical resources which are potentiallycapable of providing a good standard of living for the whole population.The possible existence of exploitable petroleum and natural gas furtherenhances the country's potential resource base. However, the country,with a relatively untrained population of only 130,000 does not possessthe human resources to develop this physical potential. Not only arethere insufficient agricultural laborers to harvest sugarcane and citrusbut also there is a dearth of suitably trained and experienced technicians,planners and managers to design and implement proposed and existing projects.This situation is further complicated by the existence of a pool of unskilledunemployed in the urban areas who are averse to agricultural work. Mechani-zation and expatriate technicians can only partly cope with this problem. Iffurther development is to be achieved and if the benefits therefrom are toaccrue equitably throughout the population, the Government needs to foster agreater and broader involvement of the people in agriculture. This will notbe an easy task and may take a long time.

B. Agriculture

Role and Structure of Agriculture

26. Agriculture's role in the Belizean economy does not reflectits potential. In 1977, agriculture contributed only 19% of GDP althoughagroprocessing added approximately a further 10%. The sector, however,employed 40% of the labor force and provided 74% of domestic exports.Despite the relative importance and potential of agriculture, Belize is farfrom self sufficient in food; food imports in 1977 comprised over 20% oftotal imports. Land distribution is highly skewed; the Government owns over60% of land and two individuals hold 40% of the remainder. Much of the mostaccessible land is held by absentee landlords.

27. In the pattern of agriculture that is still evolving, the focusof attention is on production by two general categories of farmers --small farmers producing with family labor a wide variety of products forthe domestic food supply and larger farmers with mostly mechanized opera-tions primarily concerned with producing for export. By far the mostimportant in this latter category is the growing of sugarcane and thesubsequent factory production of sugar which is the principal export com-modity. Although much lower in terms of both volume and value, citrus ranksnext in importance by supplying the oranges and grapefruit for processinginto various citrus products for export. Also, among the agriculturalexports are bananas, some rice, honey, live animals and beef, and fish andforest products.

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Potential for Agricultural Development

28. Few areas of the world are as fortunate as Belize with its signifi-cant land resources and reasonable production capabilities in relation toa sparse population. Despite large areas of swamp, 2.2 million acres,nearly 40% of the land area is suitable for agriculture and a further 2.6million acres is suitable for forestry. However, only 215,000 acres, lessthan 10% of available land, was under cultivation in 1975. Of the totalacreage suitable for agriculture, by far the most is still untouched in theform of jungle, forest or brush. Rainfall is generally adequate, rangingfrom 50 inches in the north to 175 inches in the south although both annualand season fluctuations sometimes create the need for irrigation for theattainment of a constant level of production. Belize is, however, prone tohurricanes which periodically severely damage the agricultural sector.Soil qualities vary significantly but there exist localized areas of bettersoils suited to the production of a wide range of tropical and other agri-cultural products.

29. The best prospect for a signficant expansion of production liesin the hands of the 2,000 medium-size farms. These are mainly commercialfarms in which the family provides the main source of labor. In addition,there are an estimated 6,000 scattered small farmers including the Maya andKekchi Indians who presently practice the cut and burn system of farming.With the necessary assistance, example and extension work many could becomesettled farmers. Both medium and small farmers have the potential to expandproduction and to reduce the present food import bill. In particular, thereare good prospects for import substitution for dairy products, vegetablesand fruits such as potatoes, onions, tomatoes and cabbage as well as a widerange of meat products.

30. Land resources also exist for a major expansion of large scaleextensive farming, primarily for the export market. The successful imple-mentation of such schemes, however, has to date been hampered by the lack oflabor, particularly for harvesting, and suitable management capabilities.While this does not preclude the establishment of a number of highly mechan-ized schemes, the constraints do limit the number of projects that can rea-sonably be expected to be introduced despite the existence of suitable landresources.

31. Sugar dominates the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole,its cultivation and production (including molasses) alone contributed 17%of GDP and 48% of domestic exports in 1977. Production, despite the low pre-vailing world prices, hit the record level of 114,000 tons in 1978 in the wakeof favorable weather conditions, 24% higher than the previous record 1977output. Sugarcane yields, which have fluctuated from 14 to 22 tons per acredepending on weather conditions, are generally low. There exists a goodpotential to increase production both extensively and intensively and theexpected rise in the world sugar price and the Sugarcane Feeder Foods Programshould provide a good incentive to the growers. However, the shortage oflabor for cane cutting and the recent outbreak of smut will be a constraint.It is projected, however, that by 1983, exports will reach 125,000 tons, a4.6% annual average growth over the 1978 level.

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32. Citrus is the second most valuable crop. Production of both orangesand grapefruit increased in 1977/78 reflecting the response of growers tohigher prices which led them to improve care of groves and apply more fertil-izer. Production, however, is still over 30% lower than the record 1973/74record crop. The prospects for the 1978/79 crop were very good until Hurri-cane Greta directly hit the citrus area in the Stann Creek Valley. Grape-fruit were the hardest hit but significant damage was also done to the orangecrop. Most of the citrus is processed into concentrate and segments andexported to the UK and Trinidad and Tobago. In 1977, citrus exports comprisedonly 3.5% of domestic exports. With somewhat under 10,000 acres under citrusand two processing plants in operation, Belize has the potential to increaseoutput to levels above the record 1973/74 level. The medium-term impact ofthe hurricane is likely to be detrimental 1/ and the shortage of labor forpicking fruit is likely to constrain particularly the largest producers. Thegreatest potential for production increases lies with the small growers whereyields continue to be generally low. To achieve this potential, greater useof fertilizers, insecticides and other inputs, and improved grove managementwill be essential.

33. Commercial banana production only commenced in 1972. After someearly difficulties, the industry has now established itself and in 1977,10,737 tons of bananas were exported to the UK at preferential prices.Twenty-eight medium size growers have developed 1,640 acres of bananas underthe auspices of the Banana Control Board. Finance has been provided by theCDB and the DFC and marketing and management is provided under contractby Fyffes Ltd. A further 1,200 acres has been developed by a private company,Baramco. Plans are already advanced and finance secured from the CDB and theCommonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) for the irrigation of the 1,600acres of existing acreage at Cowpen and the opening up of a further 1,200acres also under irrigation. Interest has also been expressed by a privategroup for the restructuring of the whole banana industry but a firm decisionhas not been made on this proposal to date. The provision of irrigation isexpected to increase yields on a year round basis by overcoming the uncer-tainty of rain between February and May. A problem remains, however, overthe provision of housing for workers. Increases in banana output areexpected to play a leading role in increases in GDP and exports over thenext five years. Although the hurricane did harm the 1978 crop, it is notexpected to have caused medium term damage and exports are projected toincrease steadily to 35,000 tons by 1983, all being sold to the UK market.The Banana Control Board has, however, been in financial difficulties inrecent years and it is essential that its finances be placed on a viablefooting as soon as possible.

34. Belize also produces varying quantities of corn, rice and redkidney beans. Yields of all these crops are generally low and only inlimited years is Belize self sufficient in them. There is potential fora considerable increase in corn production with a relatively high degreeof mechanization for sale domestically for food and feed and possibly alsofor export. Poor husbandry has to date, however, led to production costswhich are too high in relation to the realities of the world market. Highguaranteed producer prices by the Marketing Board have only encouraged

1/ After the 1961 Hurricane Hattie yields initially increased for one cropbefore declining.

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increased production under inefficient methods. A major effort will berequired from the Extension Service if yields are increased to a levelwhere production is efficient. The proposed CDB Regional Grain Projectwhich envisages exports of corn to Jamaica is presently being redesigned tospecifically address this problem.

35. Although Belize hopes eventually to become an exporter of rice,particularly within CARICOM, it is still trying hard to produce sufficientto consistently satisfy its domestic consumption requirements. Over halfthe rice grown is produced under mechanization by one producer with 4,800acres. Approximately 3,500 acres of rice are also grown by small farmers invarious parts of the country, most of which is under the milpa system ofshifting cultivation in the Toledo district. Once again, the physicalpotential exists for substantial output increases but small farmers, todate, have shown an unwillingness to sow more acres than they can harvestmanually themselves. The demonstration effect of the UK financed ToledoRural Development Project and the completion of the CDB-financed rice milland CIDA-financed grain storage are expected to provide small producerswith a strong incentive. The Government is also proposing the establishmentof a 1,000-2,000 acre mechanized rice farm in the Toledo district to beoperated as a public corporation with an external management team. Technicalassistance will be required if the project is to progress past the conceptstage. Red kidney and other beans form an important part of the local dietand their production has a long tradition among small farmers. Nevertheless,production has not been adequate to cover domestic requirements and theMarketing Board has run into problems with splitting under storage. Withthe existing producer price, better husbandry could lead to self-sufficiencyand possibly even export.

36. Soils in Belize are suitable for the production of a wide range ofcrops and the Government is anxious to encourage diversification especiallyinto crops with the ability to be processed domestically. As a result, theyhave proposed the reintroduction of coconuts and the establishment of amechanized cassava scheme for ultimate production into industrial starch.Both schemes appear to be potentially viable but technical assistance willbe required to prepare and design the projects. A UK-financed pilot tobaccoproject has been completed and CDB finance is being sought to expand forexport within CARICOM.

37. Although forests were for many years the backbone of the economyand although they constitute the major natural resource of Belize, productionof timber and sawnwood has been declining to the point where it has becomedifficult to meet the present buoyant domestic demand. The potential islarge -- 4,700 square miles of exploitable forests containing over 1 billioncubic feet of timber, predominantly tropical hardwoods. A recent FAO studyconfirmed the potential but did not propose any detailed project proposals.Further technical assistance will be required to develop the project whichshould initially involve extraction but which could later be expanded intoprocessing into veneers and plywood. A reafforestation component is essential.Such a project would ultimately be suitable for private investors, if they

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can be found, or a joint venture with Government. Conditions are also suit-able for the production of rapid yielding softer woods (such as GmelinaAborea with a 12-14 year maturity). Successive plantings of 5-6,000 acresa year could eventually provide inputs to a pulping operation. Technicalassistance is also necessary for the Forest Department which needs strength-ening if the management and protection of the country's forest resourcesare to be improved.

38. Considering the land resources available for pasture developmentand feed grain production, the relative freedom from serious cattle disease,the existence of USDA approved abattoir and a good beef market in the Carib-bean, the livestock industry has not developed up to expectation. One reasonhas been the relatively high cost of clearing land solely for livestock graz-ing. The non-Government Belize Beef Corporation, however, does operate afacility for supplying beef to the US, has recently acquired a 6,000 acreranch near Belmopan and is planning to develop a further 2,000 acres in theBelize River Valley with CDB finance. The Government wishes to expand thenational herd from 50,000 to 100,000 head while improving its quality andis proposing to develop some 20,000 acres and import 5-7,000 head to actas a national breeding herd for sale to local farmers. External financewill be required for advancement of this proposed project.

39. Dairy products are at present one of the most important importedfood items. The success of the Mennonite Settlement Dairy Scheme makes itclear that further import substitution is possible. The CDB is accordinglypresently designing a new dairy scheme to be based upon small- and medium-scale farmers. The success of the scheme, however, will depend upon thedegree to which the Extension Service can provide educational assistanceto farmers who have no history or experience in livestock. There are alsogood prospects for expansion of pig production particularly on medium-sizedfarms using locally produced protein supplements. Swine fever has, however,reduced domestic production and an eradication program is essential. 1/

40. The fishing industry has contributed materially to the Belizeaneconomy by supplying both the domestic and export markets. The industry iswell organized in a cooperative form. Exports are mainly of lobster andconch but overfishing has become a problem. The full potential of Belize'sfishing grounds, particularly these outside the barrier reef, however, isuntapped. Preliminary studies have indicated that there are large suppliesof deep-sea fish which could supply both domestic and export markets. TheGovernment is accordingly proposing a project including establishment of afleet of ten 50-foot boats, a fish handling complex and a training component.However, before such a project is implemented, it is essential that a detailed

1/ It is important that it be determined whether the disease is actuallyswine fever rather than the apparently similar hog cholera as thediseases require different treatment. Hog cholera can be treated byvaccination but swine fever would require slaughter which would severelycurtail the growth prospects for pig production.

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survey be made of the fishing grounds in order to determine the nature, sizeand precise location of the fish. Technical assistance will be required forthe survey and for preparation and appraisal of the project.

Issues and Constraints in Agriculture

41. Organization of Agriculture. Despite the existence of large tractsof land suitable for development and very generous tax incentives non-specula-tive private foreign investment in agriculture has been limited. The scarcityof agricultural labor, particularly for harvesting, is undoubtedly a problembut there do exist suitable mechanized techniques that can overcome thisshortage. If the Government is to attract private foreign capital and tech-nical expertise, it is likely to be necessary for it to forcefully seek outinvestors, and make specific recommendations for investment rather than waitfor investors to approach them. It is likely that if investor confidence isto be obtained, Government will be required to undertake the initial projectpreparation and to be willing to participate on the basis of a joint venture.The proposed forestry and mechanized rice and cassava projects would appear tobe suitable for such arrangements.

42. However, if the benefits of agricultural development are to reacha broad section of the population, it will be necessary to concentrate on thedevelopment of the medium-sized commercial family farm. By their very nature,such farms with some hired labor can contribute materially to enhancing ruralwell-being and strengthening economic and social ties within their respectivecommunities. As family operated viable, commercial, economic units geared toboth domestic and export production, these farms can command both the flexi-bility and the resources for efficient high-level production in a mechanizedage.

43. Agricultural Extension, Research and Education. If the full poten-tial of the agricultural sector is to be developed and, as much of this poten-tial is expected to be developed through the effects of medium-size farmers,who at present have neither the knowledge nor the experience to achieve themore efficient production methods expected of them, the role and responsibil-ities of agricultural extension and research will have to be broadened andtheir effectiveness enhanced to provide technical guidance and assistancebeyond the traditional pattern so far established. The Extension Service atpresent only has about four workers in each of the six districts and theirwork is primarily with small farmers even though the best potential lies withthe medium size commercial family farm. If the Extension Service is to ful-fill the role required of it, a large increase in suitably trained manpowerand auxiliary services is necessary. The expanded service should concentrateon improving production methods, increasing use of fertilizers and insecti-cides, improved methods of soil preparation and use of high yielding seeds.

44. In the field of agricultural research, more attention needs to befocused on increasing yields of the major crops, especially sugarcane andcorn, to lower unit costs and increase the competitiveness of Belizean products

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abroad. In addition, the existence of smut and frog hopper infestation,Mexican fruit fly, swine fever and the splitting of red kidney beans indicatethe need to develop research and prevention programs even to maintain exist-ing output levels. If such expanded programs of research and extension areto be introduced an increased supply of individuals with agricultural train-ing is required. The proposed new Agricultural School, to be financed by theUK, should make a contribution but a significant number of fellowships foroverseas training of higher level agricultural technicians and professionalswill also be required. Considerable reliance on expatriate personnel willhave to continue in the near term, however, until the increased numbers oftrained locals become available.

45. Agricultural Credit. The Development Finance Corporation (DFC) hasbeen the major source of agricultural financing in Belize. Between 1973-77,DFC financed by funds from the CDB, Canada and the UK provided BZ$11.5 millionin agricultural loans covering livestock, sugarcane, bananas, citrus, fishing,corn, rice and mixed farming. Twenty-three percent of agricultural loans wentto small farmers. If DFC is to maintain its leading role of financing theexpansion of the agricultural sector, it will require continued access toexternal sources of finance together with technical assistance, particularlyfor expanded loan supervision. It is also essential that the DFC work closelywith the expanded Extension Service in order that unnecessary financialconstraints do not prevent potential yield increases.

46. Marketing. The handling of the major export products (sugar, citrusand bananas) are handled by individual marketing agencies, but the marketing ofrice, corn and red kidney beans, which are produced predominantly for thedomestic market, is handled by the Belize Marketing Board (BMB). The BMBprovides a guaranteed market for these commodities by purchasing at guaran-teed prices as set by the Cabinet. No organized marketing arrangements existfor other crops or livestock.

47. The BMB has encountered a number of serious problems in recentyears. In 1976/77, it set the support price of corn at a high price(BZ$0.16 per lb), and in order to fulfill its price guarantee commitmentsit was forced to buy 8.6 million pounds, much of which it was unable to dry,store or sell even at a loss. Consequently, losses of over BZ$1 millionwere incurred on the operations. Although this was the only major loss,it highlighted the BMB's lack of detailed market knowledge both domestic-ally and externally, and inadequate storage and drying facilities. Sincethat time, CIDA has financed the construction of 4,000 tons of storagelocated in Belmonan and Rio Grande, Toledo which should alleviate the immed-iate storage problem. CIDA has also agreed to finance a study to recommendmeasures necessary for the more effective operation of the BMB. Additionaltechnical assistance may be required to implement the recommendations.

48. Land Tenure and Policy. Land distribution in Belize is highlyskewed. A high percentage of land is in the hands of large owners and mostof the good accessible land is in absentee ownership. For the most part,these owners have made only minimal attempts to develop their holdings with

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much of the land remaining untouched. Low tax rates have provided the in-centive for holding on to land already owned while values rise even in theabsence of development. As a result, even though undeveloped land is plen-tiful, many small- and medium-scale farmers have difficulty in obtaininggood land with adequate access. It is recommended that Government consideramending existing tax legislation to reduce the incentive that exists forholding undeveloped land. In addition the Government should undertakeefforts to stimulate colonization of areas with strong agricultural potential.

Resource Conservation

49. No conservation program exists in Belize although erosion isbecoming an increasing problem. Trees have long played a key role in soiland water conservation but the development of agriculture through landclearance has removed this protective cover. Increased row crop productionand neglect of idle or marginal lands has given rise to further soil andwater problems. In addition, low lying coastal areas and plains are subjectto flooding from high sea swells and the effect of heavy rains. If thecountry's rich natural resource base is to be maintained and conserved aunified soil and water conservation program is needed. Particular attentionshould be paid to forest resource management and flood control.

C. Industry

The Character and Problems of Industry

50. The manufacturing sector in Belize is the largest among the Carib-bean LDCs. It is based partly on agricultural output (sugar and citrus)which is on a more commercial basis and a larger scale than in other LDCsand partly upon the pool of labor in Belize City. The slightly larger domes-tic market has also provided a greater degree of basic import substitutionalthough further opportunities still exist. Strong growth was achieved inthe mid-1970s (output grew at an average of 9% a year, 1972-77) when a numberof new plants were established and sugar production increased significantly.However, recent trends in Belize's manufacturing sector have been hesitant.Rising local demand has enabled expansion in existing, mainly import substi-tuting industry, but none of the three manufacturing enterprises grantedinvestment incentives in 1976 is as yet operational 1/ and only one out ofthe three approved in 1977 is even under construction. 2/ In most cases,investor interest appears to have died; what the private sector perceives as

1/ Textiles, garments and fruit and vegetable packing.

2/ Clay products and detergents were approved; expansion of Williamson'sgarment factory is under construction.

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an uncertain investment climate features prominently among the reasons. Pro-spects do seem somewhat better for the five manufacturing projects, two ofthem expansion, approved in 1978 (to November) 1/; in two of these plantsconstruction is already taking place.

51. Although there is a lack of any firm information on employment inmanufacturing, it is estimated at 1,500 (excluding handicrafts), heavilyconcentrated in the Belize City area. Value added in manufacturing in 1977was BZ$26.1 million, 14.5% of GDP, but 40% of this is in sugar production,essentially part of the agricultural sector. Dominating industry proper isWilliamson, a US-owned garment manufacturer, currently employing 500 andenlarging operations to employ 700-750; it produces wholly for export.There are two other clothing plants, a flour mill, two breweries, two citrusprocessors, a meat packing plant, and two sugar factories, plus a number ofsmall sawmills, woodworking shops, distilleries, bakeries, and some small-scale agricultural processing (rice and corn milling and slaughter houses).There are only a few of the small import-substitution industries (e.g., cig-arettes, concrete blockmaking, car batteries) which so often form the basisof the initial industrialization of countries with as small a market asBelize's. Handicrafts are on a small scale only, though skill levels inwoodcarving are clearly high.

52. There are three major constraints limiting the potential for indus-trial growth in Belize. First, the range and scale of import substitutionindustries are necessarily restricted by the very small domestic market.Second, the local management and technical capacities required to establishand run significant industrial enterprises are largely lacking in both publicand private sectors. Third, there is at present only limited potential forincreased agricultural processing.

53. Expanded agricultural processing is limited by a number of factors.The major crop, sugar, is only suitable for very limited processing. Bananas,the second crop, require no processing although a small box plant may befeasible. Citrus output is already mostly processed -- into juice, concen-trates and segments -- and further processing would require expanded produc-tion which is presently partly limited by a lack of labor for harvesting.Output of other crops is at present too small to permit the establishment ofa processing operation. In the longer run, however, the prospects are betteralthough further study will be required for most schemes. The potentialsupply of timber could support large-scale sawing and possibly secondaryprocessing activities; timber resources may even be sufficient to support apulp and paper mill. An expansion of the nation's cattle herd is likely toincrease output of the meat packing plant and may also permit the establish-ment of a milk plant. Similarly, the Government is also preparing the

1/ A match plant and an expansion of the nail plant are under construc-tion. Projects for production of veneer and plywood, springs andclamps, and an expansion of the toilet paper factory have also beenapproved.

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reintroduction of coconuts and the establishment of a mechanized cassavascheme which could provide inputs for coconut oil, animal feed and industrialstarch.

54. Two lesser problems are transportation and labor. Although airlinks to the US are good, shipping links to all areas are poor. Williamsontrucks in all their supplies from the US and trucks out the finished product;even exports to Western Europe are shipped out of Houston. The flour millcharters vessels which have to rely on the infrequent shipping service fromBelize City and the citrus industry loads its own containers and ships themby barge to Puerto Cortes in Honduras. These options are not open to smalloperations. The adequate supply of a suitable labor force is a problem evenin Belize City where there is a large pool of unemployed. There is a generallack of trained personnel and turnover is extremely high. Employers reporta high level of unreliability partly caused by an inability to adapt toregular year round work. Female workers are often in short supply as thereare no child care facilities. And, because most industry has had to belocated a few miles outside Belize City for topographical reasons, someemployers have found it necesary to lay on costly transport to work. Laborrates for unskilled workers, though low, are higher than in most other LDCsat around BZ$5 (US$2.50) per day, rising to BZ$9-10 (US$4.50-5.00) at asemi-skilled level (a more competitive figure).

The Role of Government and of the Development Finance Corporation

55. The industrialization efforts of the Government have largely beenchannelled through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), whose loanprogram has been far larger in both absolute terms and relative to commercialbanks than in other Caribbean LDCs. The Government itself administers theinvestment incentive system and controls the internal prices of certainindustrial products.

56. Government has imposed price controls on a wide range of agricul-tural and industrial products with the intention of protecting consumersfrom monopolistic price fixing. If such a policy is to be successful it isnecessary to adjust the permitted prices often and to strike a balance be-tween making investments sufficiently attractive to the private sector andconsumer interests. This requires a combination of accounting, economic andtechnical skills which the Government lacks. Questions remain concerningthe success of the controls and also the Government licensing of imports ofcertain items produced in some form locally (e.g., shirts, toilet paperand macaroni) and the Government monopoly of condensed milk imports.

57. The investment climate is reputedly somewhat clouded by a certainlack of understanding among both local and foreign investors about governmentattitudes to the private sector and uncertainties over the outcome of theGuatemala dispute and independence. For example, the Development Plan 1977-79states that:

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"Government will create the necessary climate by providingthe concessions and infrastructure required for the develop-ment of industries; and the private sector will be expectedto undertake the necessary investment. Where feasible,Government will consider joint ventures with private enter-prises. Government will at the same time continue to insistthat the consumer's interests are fully safeguarded."

However, the Government's Manifesto for an Independent Belize also states:

"Foreign investment and technology are needed in the developmentof Belize. It is, however, mutually beneficial when it operatesin partnership with Belizeans."

58. Over the past three years, the Government has granted eight invest-ment concessions to new manufacturing enterprises and three for expansion ofoperations. These potentially involve some BZ$4.6 million of new investmentand would create some 450 new jobs (additionally concession have been grantedto a number of agricultural and tourist enterprises), but only around half ofthese manufacturing operations currently seem likely to be implemented, dueprimarily to second thoughts or problems encountered by investors. However,attention could usefully be given to accelerating approval procedures. Gener-aly full tax and import duty relief has been granted for a 10-year period.

59. The DFC has an impressive record of lending on industrial projects.Loans approved were fairly stable at around BZ$470,000 (US$235,000) a yearfrom 1973 to 1976, rising to BZ$917,000 (US$459,000) in 1977 and fallingback to BZ$530,000 (US$265,000) in 1978 (to November). Around two-thirdsof the industrial loans approved to date have been for expansion of existingenterprises; it appears that a substantial part of DFC lending has been atthe expense of commercial bank loans -- relatively far more important inother LDCs. This, together with the high proportion of funds (86% in 1977)originating from interest free CIDA funds, relent, like most CDB loans, at8%, has contributed to a reasonably healthy financial situation. However,there are significant arrears of interest receivable, though procedures andrecords in this area of the DFC's operations, as in some other areas, leavemuch room for improvement. Local businessmen feel that some of the condi-tions attached to DFC loans prevent it from a true developmental role. TheDFC has a substantial number of outstanding loan applications and a continuingneed for substantial loan funds for industry is anticipated. Its investmentcompany subsidiary, DFC Investment Company, has made a number of equityinvestments in Belizean industry. After long delays the first factory shellon the Ladyville Estate has been completed; tenants have still to be found forthis, but the intention is to construct a further shell in advance of demandonce a firm taker has been found for the first. The standard of constructionof this is such that a substantial subsidy will be needed to enable the rentto be kept down to the competitive level of around BZ$2 (US$1) per squarefoot. Future shells should be of a rather cheaper construction to eliminatethe need for subsidy.

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60. The Investment Promotion Unit, initially established in the Minis-try of Trade and Industry, has (since May 1975) been an arm of the DFC. Theoffice is in Belize City, and its budget is covered by a government contri-bution to the DFC. During 1977, its expenditures amounted to BZ$48,608;for 1979 it has requested a budget of BZ$ 60,840. The unit has prepared anumber of information and promotional pamphlets which facilitate quick re-sponses to most investor inquiries. These are circulated to British Embassiesand Consulates throughout the Western Hemisphere and are claimed to havegenerated a number of inquiries. But the unit's activities have essentiallybeen limited to "awaiting potential investors who knock at its door or writeexpressing their interest or desire of investing in Belize." There has todate been a low ratio of good prospects among the inquiries received andprocessed by the unit (reportedly over 200 in 1977), and the unit's budgetdoes not permit it to conduct offshore promotional activities or to otherwiseestablish a presence in the US marketplace.

The Potential for Industrial Growth

61. Given Belize's considerable potential for agricultural development,there is clearly scope for increased agricultural processing, though thenature of the agricultural potential implies that the added value in relatedmanufacturing activities will be modest and the buildup of developmentshould be slow. This applies particularly to the forestry sector where thepotential is large. In the meantime, and of importance in the context ofthe employment situation in the Belize City area, there is scope for more"ienclave" type industries and for small import-substitution industries.

62. The Government has established the following priorities for"industrial" development to be based upon local resources:

(a) food processing, particularly canning;

(b) dairy development;

(c) deep-sea fishing;

(d) manufacture of oils and fats products;

(e) hydropower;

(f) forest-based industries (e.g., furniture); and

(g) construction material (e.g., cement and clay bricks).

Of these, only dairy development has been subjected to full and detailedstudy, though on most of the others some preliminary studies have been under-taken. In general, it is clear that further work will be needed before de-tailed viable projects can emerge in each of these sectors. However, if

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supply problems can be solved and markets found, it seems likely that manyof these sectors -- most notably perhaps the entire forestry sector -- couldultimately be developed and make a major contribution to employment andincomes.

63. The nature of these projects, and the need to subject them tomore detailed study, means that none can be fully operational for severalyears. This also applies to certain other agriculturally based projects --industrial starch and animal feedstuff from cassava, for instance. Organiza-tional arrangements will have to be settled before implementation can start(the role, if any, of Government and of foreign investors). In the meantime,the main potential lies in seeking to establish a wider range of smallessentially import-substituting industries, including those based on localraw materials, and in seeking to build on the successful Williamson opera-tion to establish a range of "enclave" type industries. Small garmentoperations, preserves, meat processing, furniture, and possibly some build-ing materials and components are examples of the former, and clothing andelectronic assembly of the latter.

Policy Recommendations

64. To build up these types of industry and to tap the longer termpotential for major agro-based industries in Belize, it is necessary:

(a) to establish a higher degree of business confidence, bothlocal and foreign, in the long-term investment climate inBelize. The prime role allocated to the private sector mustbe stressed. The conditions under which Government intendsto become directly involved in a venture should be clearlylaid down. It must also be recognized that effective jointventures between foreign and Belizean private investors mayat times be impracticable because Belizean entrepreneurs lackboth financial resources and the technical and managementcapacities to make any real contribution to the project;

(b) to revise the present system of price controls. The scopeof the scheme should be reduced with controls only beingimposed upon essential products. Frequent revisions shouldbe undertaken so as not to unreasonably reduce margins.Such a reduced scheme should be able to be operated rela-tively efficiently. The list of import items subject tospecific licenses should also be reduced and eventuallyeliminated so as to prevent inefficient production behindprotective barriers;

(c) to give a greater priority than in the past to the develop-ment of the industrial estate, keeping factory shell construc-tion programs one unit ahead of demand. Future shells should

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be of a cheaper construction than the existing one. Steps areneeded to ensure reliable electricity supplies to industryand an adequate bus service from Belize City to Ladyville;

(d) to establish the DFC's Investment Promotion Unit on the U.S.mainland (an office located in New York, along the lines ofthe St. Lucia operation, would cost some US$75,000) and toconduct such initiatives as a promotional tour. It is recom-mended that this North Amercian presence be initially estab-lished under the umbrella of UNIDO's Investment PromotionService in New York. If the first year's experience issufficiently good, then the establishment of a locallyfunded operation should be undertaken.

65. Both the Ministry of Trade and Industry and the DFC need strength-ening, and appropriate technical assistance should be provided. Efforts areneeded to streamline government procedures, especially as they relate to theprivate sector so that investors can expect prompt processing of applicationsfor concessions, etc.

D. Tourism

Status of Tourism in Belize

66. Tourism in Belize is based upon three distinct attractions:

(a) the Cayes and the longest coral reef in the Americas stretch-ing the entire length of the coastline from Ambergris Cayein the north to the Hunting Caye in the south, a distanceof 174 miles;

(b) the extensive but largely unexcavated Mayan ruins; and

(c) the natural attractions of the tropical fauna and floraof Belize as well as its picturesque limestone scenery.

To date, however, tourism has not played a significant role in the economy.There is a limited potential which could be further developed but tourism inBelize cannot be expected to be a leading sector and will only be able to makea minor contribution to economic development.

67. Visitor arrivals in 1977 are estimated at 55,000 having increasedfrom 45,000 in 1971. It is estimated that recreational tourists made up 30%of this total with the highest proportion coming from North America. Touristexpenditure in 1977 is estimated at BZ$20 million (US$10 million). A short-lived but nevertheless significant feature of tourism in 1975 and 1976 wasthe number of cruise ship arrivals, a large proportion of whom purchasedlocal tours to the Mayan ruins at Altun Ha. The militant action of taxi

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drivers, however, created an atmosphere which proved to be unacceptable tothe tour operators. As a result, few cruise ships now call at Belize withconsequent loss of tourist receipts.

68. The size of the hotel industry has shown a steady increase through-out the 1970s in keeping with the rise in the number of stayover visitors.From 58 hotels in 1973, the number has risen to 87 establishments in 1978,increasing the bedroom capacity by over 45%. By far, the greatest numberof hotels are located in the old capital of Belize City, the new capitalof Belmopan possessing only one small pension of four rooms.

69. The major characteristic of the industry is the relatively smallsize of the majority of hotels. Some 70% of establishments have 10 rooms orless with the median size being only eight rooms. The largest hotel is theFort George in Belize City with 41 rooms. Apart from isolated cases, like theFort George, hotels are, in general, owned and operated by native Belizeansand despite their size, since most are family run they manage to eke out anexistence. Even with the most expensive hotels, however, the stock of theindustry is not of international standards. Occupancy levels, therefore, tendto reflect supply constraints rather than an implicit demand for particularhotels. An analysis of the bed-tax returns for each hotel indicates anaverage bed occupancy of between 50-60% for those hotels catering to NorthAmericans and Europeans and only of the order of 25% for other establishments.

The Potential for Tourism

70. The Government calls Belize an "awakening land" but, as yet, ithas not fully attained its tourism potential. That this potential existsmay readily be seen from the relatively large number of overseas visitorsto places of interest and the high utilization rates of hotels catering toNorth American visitors. Both have occurred with little stimulus from Govern-ment. The tourism product in Belize is of interest primarily to specificmarket segments -- scuba diving, snorkeling, fishing, Mayan ruins and tropicalflora and fauna -- all of which are customarily related to the more staid,higher educated, more affluent and somewhat older age groups.

71. The country contains over 100 Mayan sites but to date only two,those at Altun Ha and Xunantunich have been excavated. The number of foreignvisitors to the sites has grown steadily, with 1976 showing a dramatic increasewith the advent of cruise ship arrivals, reaching over 9,000 for the two sitescombined. Despite the collapse of that particular market, the number offoreign tourists to both sites for the period January-October 1978, increasedby over 30% compared to the same period for 1977. Again, these sites attracttourists with little promotional activity on the part of the Government. Bothsites and others throughout Belize could form an important link in the "MayanCircuit" currently associated with the neighboring territories of Mexico andGuatemala, as well as forming part of the overall general tourist attractionof the country.

72. Off the coast of Belize there are some 175 islands or Cayes, many ofwhich possess attractive white sand beaches. Some, particularly Ambergris Caye,have already developed an embryonic tourist industry primarily serving as

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bases for exploring the largest barrier reef in the western world. The reefis a prime tourist attraction of particular interest to the growing marketfor scuba diving and snorkeling, and has virtually year-round appeal. Withproper environmental controls and marketing, the number of visitors to theCayes and the reef could significantly increase.

73. The reef and the Mayan ruins form two attractions which are signi-ficantly different from features offered in other parts of the Caribbean and,therefore, are of appeal to cruise ship tour operators. From 1974-76, thenumber of cruise ship voyages increasing throughout the Caribbean and giventhat earlier difficulties are resolved, there is undoubtedly a high potentialfor cruise ships in Belize.

74. The forested mountains of inland Belize currently attract fewtourists. Nevertheless, the lofty waterfalls, fast flowing rivers and floraand fauna that characterize the Mountain Pine Ridge, for example, presentattractions of wide appeal. With over 500 species of tropical birds, thereare significant opportunities for bird-watching, an activity that is nowenjoyed by a large and increasing section of the public. In addition, therivers and sea around Belize abound in fish which would be potentially attrac-tive to serious anglers. This again is an activity undertaken by a largenumber of North Americans which has not been fully developed in Belize.

Main Issues and Constraints

75. Belize posseses an appeal to specific, but, nevertheless, largemarket segments and as yet has not attained its full potential. Fundamentalto this lack of development is the failure on the part of Government to iden-tify the tourism product that the country has to offer as well as its poten-tial, and to institute an appropriate development plan. As a result, thetourism development that has occurred has been largely instigated by theprivate sector. Consequently, it has been ad hoc and not necessarily ofthe type that would maximize the net economic and social benefits accruingto the country.

76. Resulting from this lack of government policy, certain physicaland institutional constraints exist that inhibit tourism growth, namely:

(a) lack of adequate hotel accommodation and complementaryservices;

(b) lack of persons with the required skills to serve theindustry; and

(c) lack of legislation to maintain quality standards in allareas of the industry.

The Government acknowledges these problems but has not established themethodology or machinery for overcoming them or for identifying developmentpriorities.

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77. Apart from the lack of an overall tourism development plan, certainspecific constraints to tourism growth exist. A market potential exists forBelize but tourists will not be attracted to the country without adequatepromotional activity. The Tourist Board has neither adequately trained staffnor the appropriate budget to undertake this critical function. In addition,the statistical services of the country do not collect sufficient informationrelated to the tourism sector to permit any form of tourist planning.

78. Resolution of a number of issues relating to the Mayan ruins isessential. The budget for the Archeological Department does not providesufficient funds to permit Mayan sites to be excavated adequately or toprovide essential facilities for tourists. The development of Mayan ruinsfor tourism purposes and their excavation for historical reasons are oftenin conflict, and some balance should be drawn between the two such hasoccurred in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. Access to the Xunantunich siteis by an antiquated, manually operated ferry which, after the flooding causedby Hurricane Greta, is in dangerous condition. In view of the potentialimportance of this site, both as an historical monument and as a key featureof the tourist circuit, alternative means of crossing the Mopan River shouldbe investigated. No national museum exists to display the principal arti-facts that are now either in store or on loan to foreign museums. At thesame time, no information centers or brochures exist on the sites.

79. The hotel stock in Belize is not of international standards andhigh occupancy rates in Belize City and San Pedro, in particular, reflectsupply constraints rather than an inherrent demand for the facilities. Atthe height of the season it is difficult to find satisfactory accommodationeither in Belize City or in some of the principal resort areas on the Cayes.Positive action has been taken by Government in respect of Belmopan. Requestshave been made to the CDB for funding for a new hotel of 20 rooms, 10 apart-ments and limited convention space which has been agreed in principle. Atpresent, insufficient consideration has been given to the appropriate size ofthe hotel, its operating characteristics, tariffs and management arrangements.It is recommended, therefore, that technical assistance is immediately providedto the Government to undertake these prerequisite studies and if necessary forthe Government to reconsider the possible financing arrangements. It ispossible, for example, that private sector money could be found to build andoperate the hotel with Government having an equity stake in the form of thesite value. However, the development of a hotel in Belmopan will only impactupon visitors doing business with the Government. In the longer run, furtherexpansion of high class hotel capacity will be required if tourism is tofulfill its potential.

Policy Recommendations

80. Critical to the planned growth of tourism in Belize is the need todraw up a practical 5-10 year development plan for tourism, which wouldidentify, inter alia:

(a) scope and scale of tourism;

(b) market potential and sources;

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(c) requirements of infrastructure and superstructure;

(d) investment timing and costs;

(e) organizational and budget requirements;

(f) marketing plan;

In order to expedite the plan and, in view of the absence of suitably trainedpersonnel in Belize, it is recommended that technical assistance be providedto undertake this exercise.

81. An immediate plan should be drawn up in respect of training andhiring suitable personnel to reinforce the functions undertaken by the TouristBoard. Specific attention should be given to:

(a) the most appropriate ways of developing the Mayan sites fortourism purposes. A review of developments and marketingof sites in Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico would give guid-ance as to the most appropriate way of developing the sitesin Belize to maximize the benefits from tourism withoutdamaging their historical significance;

(b) identifying what statistics are required to permit a fullerunderstanding of existing tourism in Belize and to provide aframework for planning and monitoring future policy actions.

Immediate action should also be taken to remedy the problems created bytaxi drivers in 1976 in respect of cruise ship arrivals. In view of therelatively low leakage of tourist spending that appears to characterizecruise ship visitors in Belize and the appeal that Belize has demonstratedin the past, positive action should be taken by the Tourist Board and con-tacts made with cruise ship operators.

E. Transportation

82. The transportation sector in Belize faces a different set of prob-lems from other Caribbean LDCs. With an area of 8,866 sq mi., a populationof only 130,000 and widely scattered production and population centers,the country is faced with proportionately high per capita infrastructuraland distributional costs. It further differs from other LDCs in that ithas common borders with two neighboring countries, Mexico and Guatemala.There is considerable through traffic; one-third of Belize City port trafficis destined for Mexico and much Guatemalan timber cut in the Petan provinceis exported to Mexico by road through Belize. Furthermore, one proposal forthe settlement of the border dispute with Guatemala could involve an increasein Guatemalan traffic to and from the Belize City port.

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83. Internally, substantial investments have been and are in the pro-cess of being made in the upgrading of main roads. When the program iscompleted, there will be a national highway system more than adequate forthe existing and potential traffic densities. Nevertheless, large tractsof arable land in Belize are still not serviced by any form of road or rivercommunications. Further feeder roads will be required if the full potentialof such lands are to be developed. However, it is not recommended thatroads be built as a means of developing land but rather that agriculturaldevelopment projects should be coordinated to minimize infrastructuralrequirements and that access roads should be included as part of suchprojects. At present, very little internal communication is undertaken bywater despite sheltered coastal waters and relatively long road distances.It is recommended that the potential for coastal water transport be furtherexamined.

84. External communication is made by sea, air and road. The presentlighterage port in Belize City is being replaced by a new semi-deepwaterport under construction with CDB finance. However, given the actual andprojected tonnages shipped through Belize City, the disparate productionlocations of the major export crops (sugar, citrus and bananas) and theproximity of the new modern deepwater port at Puerto Cortes, Honduras,it is unlikely that Belize City will be able to avoid becoming essentiallya feeder port for Puerto Cortes as a few large ships will either be willingor able to use Belizean facilities. International air access is adequate forexpected traffic and international road transport is more constrained by roadconditions externally than internally.

Roads

85. Belize's road network consists of: 345 miles primary roads, ofwhich 185 miles are asphalt paved and 160 miles are gravel roads; 440 milessecondary and tertiary gravel roads; and about 225 miles unpaved farm-to-market roads and unimproved tracks, making a total of about 1,000 miles.All main population and production centers have good primary road access.The Western Highway from Belize City to near Belmopan was completed in theearly 1970s. The Northern Highway from the Mexican border to close toBelize City, which services the sugar growing area is under construction,financed by a E9.4 million grant from the UK and managed by the Crown Agents.The Public Works Department (PWD) is about to complete the improvement ofthe Hummingbird Highway which links the citrus growing area near Dangrigawith the new capital, Belmopan. The PWD is also expected to upgrade afurther 17-mile section of the Western Highway from near Belmopan to SanIgnacio, nine miles from the Guatemalan border. UK financing of this projecthas been requested.

86. Traffic densities are very low. Considering these low densities,the geometric standards of the roads are quite generous. Formation widthsof 34 feet and carriage widths of 22 feet are applied to all main roadsrecently or presently being improved.

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87. The 100-mile Southern Highway from a point near Dangriga to PuntaGorda is the only major highway not to have been asphalted. This is the onlyroad connection between the south and center of the country and services thebanana and rice-growing areas as well as the region where presently unsuc-cessful oil exploration is taking place. Average daily traffic densitiesare below 100 and gradual improvement by PWD to gravel standards, as hasalready been done on the 50-mile section between Independence and the DangrigaJunction, together with some bridge reconstruction should produce standardssufficient for the foreseeable future.

88. With the exception of the Northern Highway, which is being con-structed under Crown Agents management, the PWD undertakes all road improve-ment and maintenance with their own equipment, much of which has beenprovided by the UK. However, at present, no charge is assessed for depre-ciation of such equipment and many project costs exclude even operation andmaintenance. If the economic cost of road construction and maintenance isto be charged and if decisions concerning new road programs are to be madeon the basis of such costs, then a new accounting system must be introduced.

89. As mentioned above in para 83, large tracts of arable land inBelize are not serviced by road. An ongoing CDB-financed project is con-structing 112 miles of feeder roads in the sugarcane growing area in thenorth of the country. Further feeder roads will be required as new areasare developed (such as in the proposed forestry scheme) but it is recommendedthat such roads should form part of individual projects rather than a separatefeeder roads program.

Ports

90. At present, the country's main port is a lighterage port in BelizeCity. Lighterage is carried out by shipping agents who own or charter thelighters and use the government-owned sheds, located adjacent to a shallow1,100 foot quay along which the lighters are moored. Since Belize's coastis protected by a reef running from north to south, very few lighterage daysare lost because of weather conditions. The number of containers is increas-ing rapidly and their storage is becoming a problem. All are of the lift-on/lift-off type since there is as yet, no facility to accommodate roll-on/roll-off containers.

91. A new CDB-financed port costing over US$10 million is under con-struction one mile south of the center of the city and is scheduled to becompleted in March 1979. The new port facility will include a 214-foot pier-head in 18 feet of water at the end of a 2,500-foot long single line (12 feet)tressle, perpendicular to the coastline. As a result of the limited depthof water at the pierhead, significant lighterage of cargo must still beexpected even when the new facility is fully operational. The designs of theport, however, do not provide a berth which can accommodate lighters.

92. It must be accepted that eventually Belize will become a feederport to Puerto Cortes in Honduras which has a modern container berth. Callsof conventional break bulk vessels in Belize are already being reduced,and the cost of the large container vessels are so high (some US$20,000

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to $30,000 per day) that the shipping lines cannot afford to send theseships to a port with a total throughput of less than 200,000 tons per annum.Water along the coast being quite calm, and Puerto Cortes being only some100 nautical miles away, it must be expected that for Belize container move-ments by towed barges to and from Puerto Cortes will become the most economicsystem, similar to that which is already efficiently operating between SanJuan and the Caribbean islands. This system is already operating for theexport of citrus fruit from Commerce Bight Jetty in Dangriga (which will berebuilt with CDB funds during 1979), and for bananas from a pier in Big Creek.

93. In view of the above, it is clear that the new port in BelizeCity will not be complete until a new shallow water, low-level facilityis built on the shoreline which can accommodate both lighters and barges.

94. Legislation for the creation of a Port Authority has been completed,but some amendments of existing laws have still to be made to avoid contra-dictions with the new Port Authority law. However, appointments of itsmembers have still to be made, and much remains to be done before the newport may become operative in mid-1979. New port tariffs have to be estab-lished and negotiations with labor unions need to be completed at an earlydate if difficulties at the time of opening the new port are to be avoided.Details similarly need to be worked out concerning lighterage arrangements.Technical assistance is required for the operation of the new Port Authority;recruitment procedures for UN-financed assistance are already underway.

Airports

95. Belize has good international air communications with regular con-nections to Miami, New Orleans, San Salvador, San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa(Honduras). Belize City International Airport is situated 10 miles from thecity and has a 6,300 foot runway which can accommodate present generationaircraft up to the Boeing 720B (a more powerful version of the 707). Theairport acts basically as a transport stop for the newly established (1977)Belize Airways Limited (BAL), Taca and Tan/Sasha. In 1977, there were 13,514traffic movements, 2,281 tons of cargo handled and 138,822 passengers used theairport, of which only 57,584 (41.5%) used the terminal. 1/ Because ofBelize's limited potential for tourism, there is no scope for larger charterplanes using the airport.

96. In addition to Belize City International Airport, there are 12government-owned and maintained airstrips of 2,000 feet and eight privatelyowned similar airstrips. Mayan Airlines provides scheduled domestic serviceswith nine seat Islander aircraft to the country's major towns, none of which,however, exceeds a population of 10,000 people. Belize City Municipal Air-port, situated only one mile from the city, handles the Mayan Airways flights

1/ Transit passengers do not usually leave the aircraft although a smalltransit lounge is available.

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however, exceeds a population of 10,000 people. Belize City Municipal Air-port, situated only one mile from the city, handles the Mayan Airways flightsbut the strip is substandard and development would involve substantial out-lays. It has been proposed that the traffic be diverted to the InternationalAirport which would increase aircraft movements by about 14,500 a year buthave little impact upon total passenger and freight traffic. It this changeis to be undertaken, it is recommended that a bus service be provided fromBelize City to the International Airport. 1/

97. The Department of Civil Aviation has drawn up a development planfor the Belize City International Airport for the period 1978-90. The pro-posed program includes:

(a) firehouse and firefighting equipment;

(b) navigational equipment;

(c) expansion of apron;

(d) new terminal building;

(e) runway extension (to 8,000 feet).

The UK and EDF have been approached and are likely to finance items (a) to(b) which are all a matter of some priority. The present terminal buildingis over 30 years old and some passenger congestion does occur at times.Nevertheless, waiting times are not long and there is room for more efficientbaggage, immigration, customs and security operations. However, it is pro-posed that the existing terminal be converted into a cargo shed. Consequently,a modest new terminal building may be justified but should not be consideredan immediate priority. It is also proposed that the runway be extended fromthe present 6,300 feet to 8,000 feet. Such an extension can only be justi-fied if different types of aircraft are likely to use the airport and ifload factors and stage lengths increase. This cannot be considered a prioritybe could be reconsidered if there is a change in likely air traffic patterns.

F. Economic and Social Infrastructure

Energy

98. Electricity. Electricity sales by the Belize Electricity Board(BEB) increased from 24,558 MWh to 37,735 MWh between 1971 and 1977, anannual average rate of increase of 7.4%. Installed capacity is 20,479 KWin the form of diesel generators located in ten different parts of thecountry. The actual derated capacity of the system in 10,852 KW, partly asa result of the obsolescence of a number of generators. The annual loadfactor of the system is 44% with that in Belize City reaching 65%. Private

1/ The requirement is to a degree complementary to the need for the BelizeCity -- Ladyville bus service.

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installed capacity for the sugar and sawmilling industries is estimated atan additional 7,200 KW. BEB estimates indicate a 10% annual growth inelectricity sales through 1981. The existing BEB system is in a poor stateprimarily as a result of a lack of regular and proper maintenance. Loadshedding has been frequent even though nominal generating capacity exceedsthe load. However, given that the capacity of the two largest generatorsrepresents more than half the system maximum demand and that the generatorsin different towns are for the most part not and cannot reasonably beexpected to be interconnected, it is almost impossible to provide reliablesupplies to consumer under present conditions.

99. The BEB, on the recommendation of a consultant's engineering study,plans to undertake an expansion program which includes a new 3,000 KW gener-ator in Belize City, new switchgear, a new power station in Corozal and asupply network for five new villages. This program is estimated to costapproximately BZ$20 million (including adequate allowance for cost escala-tions) and is expected to be adequate for provision of a reliable supplyand the further extension of supplies to five areas presently without mainselectricity. The CDB is currently examining this program.

100. The BEB is not at present in a position to undertake such adevelopment program. The Board's financial condition is a major cause forconcern having consistently made an operating loss each year from 1972 to1977. It has resorted to borrowing from the Central Government who has beenservicing debt (including interest) on the Board's behalf. In 1977, revenuesonly met 90% of operating costs. Electricity tariffs will need to beraised for the BEB to be considered creditworthy for external financing ofits development program. The Government has approved a fuel surcharge oflc.(B2) per KW but further tariff increase will be necessary. The BEB alsosuffers from a lack of suitable personnel. It is essential that an experi-enced expatriate general manager be recruited immediately, and that anexpanded maintenance program be introduced.

101. Belize also posses a potential for hydro development which maybe suitable for the provision of the country's long run electricity genera-tion. A 1975 UNDP financed study identified the most promising site to be onthe Belize River. As the economic viability of such a scheme is expected todepend significantly on its impact upon the agricultural sector, it is recom-mended that further consideration of this scheme should be incorporatedinto the overall Belize River Valley Master Plan.

102. Oil and Gas. Geological evidence indicates a good possibility thatBelize has significant deposits of oil and gas both on and offshore, possiblyas an extension of the Mexican field. Esso Ventures is leading a consortiumwhich has been drilling onshore in the Toledo district to a depth of 10,000feet. To date, the drilling has been unsuccessful although an earlier welldrilled near Belmopan in 1973 did produce 60 barrels a day, but this flowcould not be sustained because of low rock porosity. The Government is notparticipating in oil exploration, its only involvement being in provision ofconcessions and prospecting licenses. If the country's best interests areto be protected, it is essential as a matter of priority that the Governmentestablish a suitably staffed Energy Unit including a Geological SurveyDivision. Technical assistance will be required to man this unit.

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Telecommunications

103. The existing telephone system in Belize consists of three mainlevels of trunk links, with connections to international centers. First,there are rural lines, linking village communities surrounding the switchingcenters to one another. Second, there is a network of lines connecting theswitching centers to subscribers in the urban areas. Third, long distancetransmission lines link the district exchange offices. The system has acapacity of 4,050 lines and 99 trunks. It is reported to suffer from severecongestion on trunk routes and from inadequate switching and cable plantcapacities.

104. A proposed expansion program is designed to address this problem,and provide infrastructural support to the future housing and industrialdevelopment programs. A plan for the expansion was drawn up in June 1978 bythe Belize Telecommunications Authority with assistance from an ITU expert.It contains the following basic features: (a) expansion of the switchingcapability of the system by doubling the number of lines to 8,100; (b)increasing the number of trunk circuits to satisfy projected demand for thenext 10 to 15 years; (c) installation of four new exchanges. The program isto be phased over a six year period at an estimated total cost of BZ$7.8million, including price contingencies. Suppliers' credits and a UK granthave been obtained for this program. Although the expansion program includesan additional BZ$0.8 million for a television distribution facility, thislatter component is not a priority and no provision for it has been made inthe public sector investment program.

105. Financing an enlarged telephone system will require the TelephoneAuthority to demonstrate a capability to generate additional funds from in-ternal sources. Tariff rates which have been too low to meet outstandingdebt obligations let alone make a contribution to the cost of the expansionhave recently been increased. It is recommended that the company reexaminewhether the new higher rates will generate a sufficient internal cash flowto cover operating costs, amortization of loans and a reasonable return oncapital invested.

106. The radio broadcasting system in Belize is also in need of newinvestment, particularly to improve access to the scattered rural populationfor whom urban radio broadcasts are the only means of communication withthe urban centers. Present coverage is weak, in part due to the age of thetransmitters and poor links between them, compounded by night sky wave inter-ference from neighboring stations. The Ministry of Home Affairs has requestedBZ$1.8 million from the UK and EDF to carry out the first phase of a change-over to VHF FM broadcasting. The funds would be used to install two 10 KWVHF FM transmitters at Ladyville, 10 miles north of Belize City, three 100-watt VHF FM transmitters, and a 160-meter guyed mast. These improvements areexpected to overcome most of the current problems with reception and ensurealmost complete radio coverage of the country.

Water and Sewerage

107. Water supply and waste disposal in Belize, most especially in BelizeCity, are in a far worse condition than one would expect given the country'scurrent level of per capita income. Although Belmopan was established with

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a safe supply of drinking water and a public septic tank system, Belize City,which houses one-third of the population, has only minimal water treatmentand virtually no public sewerage. Many applicants for water connectionscannot be served because of the inadequate reach of the available trunk lines.Although some higher income families have private septic tanks, most house-holds lack toilet facilities. By custom, males use the public latrines,while females use chamber pots. Liquid and some solid wastes are dumpedinto the network of open canals which were constructed only for drainage andrun alongside streets and through dense housing settlements. Since mostof the city lies directly at sea level and is subject to severe storm threats,the resulting poor runoff and potential for flooding with raw sewage enhancesthe dangers to public health and the environment which the present situationposes.

108. A project to develop a public water and sewerage system for BelizeCity has been underway since 1977 with financing by CIDA. The proposed watersupply component consists of a raw water intake and a treatment plant on theBelize River 17 miles north of the city. A 14-inch transmission main willbring the water to Belize City, and a new water distribution network hasbeen designed using parts of the existing system. This infrastructure willincrease pumping capacity and distribution to users, as well as improve waterquality. The new waste disposal system combines gravity sewers and forcemains, with sewage to be pumped through particularly lowlying areas of thecity. A network of water-borne collection mains will be installed and theraw sewage will be treated organically in a 30-acre lagoon some distance fromthe city.

109. Construction of the new system is being undertaken by a Canadianengineering consortium in conjunction with local subcontractors. Delaysencountered with the local contractor and depreciation of the Canadian dollarsince the signing of the aid agreement in 1976 have led to serious costoverruns, with the result that the available funds are adequate to provideonly half of the city with coverage by the new system. As a priority, themajor infrastructural components and distribution to the most needy areas ofthe city are being completed in the ongoing project, now termed Phase I, andadditional financing is being requested for Phase II in order to extend thewater and sewerage service to the remaining residents by the end of theperiod.

110. The Water and Sewerage Authority, a statutory body wholly ownedby Government, is executing agency for the project. The water tariffs chargedby the Authority have not been adequate to meet its operating costs under theexisting water and sewage system, and annual subventions by Central Govern-ment have been made. Although a major increase in rates is soon to be imple-mented as a condition of CIDA assistance for the proposed system, a smallsubvention by Government will continue to be necessary to meet operating costs.

111. Many of the rural areas also still lack safe water supplies. TheUK is financing ongoing projects to provide a year-round source of pipedwater in Orange Walk Town, Corozal Town, and San Pedro Ambergris Caye, andCIDA is undertaking a study of potential small-scale village systems.Further assistance is anticipated from the 'JK and Canada to extend a watersupply system to the remaining rural communities.

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Housing

112. Public investment in housing in Belize has fallen far short of themagnitude required to keep up with population growth and to replace obsoleteunits. The existing housing program is adequate to meet only 10% of the needsfor new housing, and virtually no public construction has provided units at acost which the poorest 70% of the population can afford. Major constraintsto an effective program of investment in low cost housing to date have beenthe heavy dependence on imported materials; the need to introduce infra-structure and reclaim land for housing sites, especially in Belize City;the shortage of finance; the absence of appropriate technologies and skillsfor the construction sector; and the lack of clear direction and coordinationamong the agencies designated to finance and implement housing programs.

113. Responsibility for the public housing sector is presently dividedamong three institutions: (a) the Department of Housing and Planning of theMinistry of Education and Housing, which sets overall policy and undertakessome low cost housing construction; (b) the Reconstruction and DevelopmentCorporation (RECONDEV), which provides some infrastructure for housing,implemented the CDB Working Class Housing Project in Belmopan and Ladyville,and borrows from commercial banks for mortgage lending on a modest scale;and (c) the DFC, which conducts the CDB-financed Secondary Mortgage Fund formiddle-income householders.

114. The Government estimates that 70% of the households in Belize havean annual income below BZ$2,500 and the "lower middle income" group, compris-ing 15% of households, falls in the range of BZ$2,500-5,400. Assumingfamilies spend up to 20% of monthly earnings on housing, the poorest groupcan afford payments of up to BZ$40 per month, and the second group, betweenBZ$40-90. However, the rental fees for units in the CDB Working Class Hous-ing Project and those built by the Ministry during the past year amount toBZ$50-65 per month. Houses in the CDB scheme cost BZ$14,000-20,000 toconstruct, of which nearly BZ$5,000 represents infrastructure development(1978 prices). Units built by the Ministry cost BZ$9,000-14,000 per unit,excluding infrastructure. Lower middle-income families have been able toafford these homes only at the highly concessional terms of 4-5% interest,repayable over 20-25 years, and with an additional government subsidy whichamounts to about 10% of the final construction costs in the case of the CDBproject. Given this pattern of costs and subsidization, the volume of publichousing construction has been predictably small -- only 300 houses were builtin the CDB project over two-and-a-half years. The Government obviously can-not afford to replicate the past programs of public housing construction tothe scale required.

115. The DFC, RECONDEV, and the Ministry have recently undertaken areappraisal of the entire program for public investment in housing and seta target of 1,000 new and replacement units to be constructed each year forthe next decade. To achieve a more rapid turnout of housing at lower unitcosts, the agencies have endorsed the use of local materials and prefabricatedcomponents requiring a minimum of skilled labor. The new policy also calls

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for reliance on aided self-help for much of the low-cost housing construc-tion. In order to streamline the administration of the housing program, ithas been proposed that the DFC take over the public mortgage lending whileRECONDEV would become responsible for the design and physical implementationof any government housing program, including development of infrastructure,and would function as landlord for government-owned housing estates. TheMinistry would retain a coordinating role and conduct research and develop-ment of new techniques.

116. The Ministry has made major strides towards reducing costs andconstruction time by introducing prefabricated concrete panels in unitsbuilt since the September hurricane. However, even more radical departuresfrom traditional approaches must be taken to provide public housing assist-ance to the poorest 70% of the population. First, Government should aimto design programs which avoid subsidization even of interest rates, inorder to attract funds to the sector and assist the greatest number offamilies. At near-commercial rates of 10% repayable over 25 years, house-holds in the lowest income bracket can afford a housing loan of at mostBZ$4,500, and middle-income families can finance debts up to BZ$10,000. Toprovide public housing assistance at these costs, emphasis must be placed onupgrading of slums, sites and services employing self-help, and directconstruction of multi-family dwellings rather than single units. For thelow-income group, Government's involvement should be focused on the provi-sion of communal infrastructure, particularly water supply, street lighting,and sewerage, which have either been omitted or provided to a more costlystandard in past projects. The interior dwelling space in present lowincome housing in Belize -- 600 square feet -- is large by comparison withmany developing countries and could be considerably reduced at a cost-savingmeasure. To curtail expenditure on land development, reclamation of marshyplots inside Belize City should be avoided and settlements promoted in theLadyville section to the north. However, the job opportunities in this areawill need to be expanded concurrently, and public transportation from theperiphery to the center city may need improving. Since dependence onimported raw materials is a major cause of high construction costs, Govern-ment should investigate the possibility of procuring inputs in bulk toensure a steady local supply and achieve economies of scale. Technicalassistance is already being sought by the Government to study the feasi-bility of using the locally grown palmetto palm fibers as a substitute forimported raw material in reinforced concrete and particle board.

117. If the Government succeeds in adopting a program of housingassistance for the lower income groups at costs they can afford withoutsubsidy, then an allocation of BZ$23 million from the 1979-83 public sectorcapital program could be sufficient to meet about half the target of 1,000new or rehabilitated housing units per year. This assumes that the bulk ofthe investment would be directed to the low-income households. Middle-incomefamilies may be expected to finance most of their housing constructionthrough private sources, but only if Government assists by promoting asupply of low-cost construction materials through mass purchasing of inputs.A proposal for BZ$2 million in mortgage funds has been included in the

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capital program, largely for rehabilitation of housing. A request alreadyin the pipeline for BZ$1.2 million from EDF for sites and services shouldhelp to get the new housing program off the ground. Financing will also berequired for technical assistance to the housing agencies in Belize toprepare and implement the program.

Education

118. The Government of Belize aims to provide schooling to all childrenaged 5-14. About 33,000 students were enrolled in the primary sequence(grades 1-7) in 1977 and 1,900 under age 15 in the secondary grades 1-3,indicating that roughly 85% of the target group are actually enrolled. Wast-age from the primary stage is very high -- only 50% of the students enteringgrade 1 complete the seven-year sequence. Church groups play an extremelyactive role in primary and secondary education in Belize, managing 80% ofthe primary schools and more than half of the secondary schools withGovernment paying teachers' salaries and 50% of capital costs.

119. Total enrollment at the secondary level (grades 1-5) numbered5,700 in 1977, with another 240 students enrolled in the sixth form leadingto the Cambridge 'A-level' examination. Prevocational training in thesecondary schools is limited to commercial classes and some shop and homeeconomics training in the Belize City Junior Secondary Schools. Only twoinstitutions, the Belize Technical College and Vocational Training Center,are directly oriented to vocational training at the secondary level.

120. A major issue in the education sector in Belize is the rapidgrowth of the primary school-aged population, while the church organizationsare losing much of their external financial support for school constructionand staffing. The Government intends to rely on double shifts in existingschools and encourage more community self-help to meet the needs for addi-tional primary school places in the foreseeable future. The supply oftrained teachers, and their distribution in the rural areas, in particular,is a problem relating to the overall quality of schooling. The relativelack of trained teachers in rural schools is thought to be a factor encourag-ing farm families to migrate to Belize City. Inequities also exist in theconcentration of secondary school places in Belize City, which has 60% ofthe secondary level enrollments but only 33% of the total population. Sincegovernment fellowships cover only part of the high costs of boarding inBelize City, rural students cannot attend secondary school readily unlesstheir entire families move to the metropolitan area.

121. Ongoing capital assistance projects in the education sector con-sist largely of primary and secondary school construction by the UK. Con-struction of three rural junior secondary schools and expansion of the BelizeCity Junior School #1 are in the pipeline for EDF and UK financing respec-tively. The EDF project should help redress some of the maldistributionin the number of post-primary places available to rural youth.

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122. Included among the proposed projects is a request for donorassistance to expand the Government's program of building houses for primaryschool teachers in rural areas. The provision of adequate accommodations isa major factor in attracting trained teachers to rural schools. AboutBZ$400,000 is requested to carry out a feasibility study and pilot produc-tion of textbooks, to be written in Belize, for the teaching of English tothe Spanish speaking community. The Ministry of Education places greatemphasis on this project both as a means of implementing the curriculareform, which is aimed at the development of a locally oriented syllabus,and to provide better access to reading materials for low-income students.The Ministry is also seeking donor aid to expand Rural Education and Agri-culture Program (REAP) in the primary schools. This program, which providesprimary school students with an opportunity to practice agriculture andanimal husbandry, is already operating quite successfully in eight schoolsand the Government intends to expand the program to mine more schools by1981. Although the program is highly admirable as an innovative approach todeveloping positive attitudes toward agriculture and a more relevant curri-culum for rural schools, the capital costs of the program seem unrealisti-cally high (BZ$16,000 per school in 1978 prices) if it is eventually to beextended to all rural schools. In light of the desirability of replicatingREAP on a wide scale, the capital components should be revaluated beforethis project receives external financing.

Manpower Training

123. The issue of the supply and demand for trained manpower in Belizeis of such importance to the society and the economy that it warrants a dis-cussion on its own. As noted in an earlier section, Belize has a large poolof labor which is underutilized, while residents with some skills emigrateto more developed countries and foreign laborers from the neighboring statesimmigrate to take low level agricultural jobs and certain skilled positions,such as in the construction trades.

124. Almost 6,000 youths of working age leave primary school each year.About one-third go on to secondary level education, and the remainder haveno organized means of obtaining job training. The Vocational Training Centerenrolls about 60 primary school leavers in the trades of carpentry, masonry,plumbing, electricity, and motor mechanics. At the post-secondary level, theBelize Technical College trains craftsmen and middle-level technicians inbuilding and engineering trades and conducts commercial and secretarialcourses. Total enrollments comprise about 550 daytime and 460 evening stu-dents, including enrollment in the General Studies Department. The BelizeTeachers College and the Nursing School complete the institutions for post-secondary vocational training in Belize.

125. In 1977/78, the Government of Belize prepared a National VocationalProgram for the country aimed at improving and expanding the resources avail-able for training, mainly at the secondary level. The emphasis of the pro-gram is on extending opportunities for vocational training into the rural

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areas, by providing facilities for vocational classes for both day andevening students in the secondary schools. The training is to be mainlyin relatively low-level skills which are less marketable abroad andoriented to the rural economy. Technical assistance has already beenobtained from CIDA in the preparation of this program, and more aid hasbeen promised from this source to provide the necessary equipment, inst-ructor training and institutional development. The UK has been approachedto continue its assistance in this area by financing an expansion of theVocational Training Center. The Government is also requesting a significantdonor commitment to consolidate and expand facilities for training at thetertiary level by forming the Belize College of Arts, Sciences and Technology(BELCAST) from existing institutions. Besides eliminating duplication ofworkshops and laboratories, the project would introduce training for higherlevel engineering technicians and increase the supply of vocational andother secondary teachers.

126. Although the Government's plans for expansion of vocational train-ing seem appropriate in design, it lacks an assessment of the requirements fortrained manpower in various fields. Technical assistance has been included inthe public sector investment program for such a manpower study. In spite ofthe evident need for more craftsmen and technicians at present, the market forskilled labor could be quickly saturated given the small size of the nonagri-cultural sectors. Emphasis of the vocational program should be on improvingthe quality and distribution of training, on in-service upgrading, and onrelating vocational training to planned developments in agriculture andforestry.

127. Secondly, and possibly most importantly, the needs for agriculturaltraining have been relatively overlooked in Belize, although UK assistanceis expected to set up an agricultural training school for middle-level per-sonnel. Agricultural education in the secondary schools and in eveningclasses would be desirable to encourage young people, especially, to engagein farming. The Government is planning some settlement and intensive train-ing of young farmers on a small scale in connection with agricultural proj-ects, such as banana development, and this approach may be worth replicating.

128. Finally, training abroad for public sector personnel, particularlyin the fields of agriculture (including forestry and fishing), engineering,vocational teaching, planning and management will be of high priority through-out the 1979-83 period. Specific training requirements should be outlined inconcert with revision of the Development Plan. Provision has been made inthe public sector capital program for fellowship assistance to remain at thepresent level up to 1983, although establishment of BELCAST, the agriculturaltraining school, and the public sector training center which the UK isexpected to finance should reduce the need for advanced training abroad incertain fields.

Health

129. The Government of Belize professes a strategy for the health sectorwhich focuses on primary care linked to the availability of hospital facili-ties and to surveillance of environmental health. A network of 27 public

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health centers staffed by public health or rural health nurses forms thebasic infrastructure and six district hospitals plus Belize City Hospitalexist for secondary care. However, because of an absence of clear admin-istrative direction, the lack of trained personnel and insufficient financ-ing, particularly for salaries and maintenance, the actual service providedby the sector falls far short of its objectives.

130. Although the number of rural health centers is adequate giventhe total population of Belize, the failure to build up facilities in areaswhere large population shifts have occurred, such as in Corozal District,has led to under-provision of primary care in those regions. A general lackof maintenance has placed at least half the existing centers in a severestate of disrepair, while with the addition of services such as special-purpose clinics and health education, the need for more physical space ineach center has become severe. Referral of cases and coverage of remotesettlements is hampered by the poor upkeep of vehicles for health workers.A major constraint on the overall quality of care at the health centers hasbeen the tendency for the health administrators and instructors at thenursing school to encourage the more qualified students to enter hospitalservice, while steering the less successful candidates into training asrural health nurses. This trend and the absence of financial incentives forpublic health work have caused it to hold little prestige in the eyes ofhealth professionals and relegate it to a minor place in the nursing curri-culum.

131. Environmental health, which is affected most by the primitivewater supply and sanitation in Belize, is also undermined by the lack ofcapital and, particularly, of recurrent finance for maintenance of thespraying vehicles used in malaria eradication. The recent upsurge inreported incidence of the disease from an annual average of 93 cases in1972-75 to over 1,000 in 1978 highlights the danger of inadequate fundingfor this program.

132. Although the Government supports seven hospitals, providinga total of 25 beds per 10,000 persons, there is not enough staff or equip-ment to make them functional. A completely new structure is required toreplace the Belize City Hospital. The existing facility, located only a fewfeet from the shore at sea level, gets flooded during storms, the electricalwiring is hopelessly obsolete, the building is overcrowded and lacks even alaboratory and laundry. An appropriate strategy to integrate health faci-lities in the major regions of the country and achieve the minimum supply ofstaff and equipment required for an effective referral system would be toretain and develop only four of the hospitals, at Orange Walk, Belize City,Belmopan, and Toledo as regional institutions.

133. The public sector investment program addresses the above short-comings, first, through a proposal for the addition of four rural healthcenters at sites with recent population growth. A project to constructthree other centers is already underway with UK assistance. Funding isrequested to expand and renovate eight existing health centers, as well as

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to provide vehicles for public health nurses, health inspectors, and themalaria eradication campaign. Provision has been made to purchase laband x-ray equipment for the Belmopan, Orange Walk and Toledo Hospitals sothat they can adequately perform their curative function. Major donorassistance will be required for construction of the new hospital for BelizeCity, which is expected to begin on a modest scale during the 1979-83period. The project is at a very preliminary stage of preparation, however.The UK has become involved in prefeasibility work for the project and hasalso indicated interest in financing components of an intermediate mentalhealth facility outside Belize City.

134. These investment projects should aid considerably in reversingthe deterioration of the health infrastructure and drawing a greater utilityfrom existing health resources. However, fellowship assistance is equallyrequired for training of public and environmental health personnel. Acommitment must also be made by Government to allocate recurrent financefor a maintenance program and to provide improved financial incentives andprofessional encouragement to the public health personnel trained locally.

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III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM

135. The following public sector investment program of the Governmentof Belize for 1979-83 represents total capital expenditures by externalagencies and by Government. The list of projects includes those withassured external funding as well as projects for which external financinghas yet to be secured. The proposed projects reflect the interests andpriorities of Government. The projects identified in the several sectorsare not yet all supported by complete technical, economic and financialfeasibility studies, however. The estimates, therefore, of total pro-jected public investment are subject to the completion of these studiesand on the assumption that they will confirm the feasibility of theseprojects.

136. The public sector investment program emphasizes expansion of theproductive base of the economy, exploitation of the abundant natural re-sources and development of social and economic infrastructure. In thedirectly productive sectors, notably agriculture, the investment programrepresents a gearing up of productivity capacity, primarily oriented toexport. The Banana Control Board and regional grain/soya projects developcurrent major crops, while in the latter half of the period, investments aredesigned to foster production of tobacco, livestock, cassava, and coconutsand to build up forestry and deep sea fishing enterprises. Major considera-tions in the identification of agricultural projects have been the need formore extensive cultivation of the natural resources in good supply land,forests, and fisheries -- coupled with mechanization to ease the constrainton agricultural labor, and development of commodities which may create apotential for agro-processing after 1983. Investment in industry other thanforestry and in tourism is expected for the most part to be undertaken byprivate entrepreneurs during the period under consideration; consequently,the public sector investment program for these sectors includes mainlycredit schemes and construction of factory shells. Heavy expenditures forongoing infrastructural projects, namely, the Belize City port, Northernhighway, Belize City water and sewage scheme, and in agriculture, thesugarcane feeder roads and grain storage facility dominate the investmentprogram at the outset. Long-delayed investments to expand the electricityand telephone systems and completion of the water and sewerage project(which has confronted severe cost overruns) are scheduled to follow. Majorcapital outlays are urgently needed during the period to build up thehousing stock, which has been seriously neglected, and to replace the badlydeteriorated hospital in Belize City.

137. Output implications of the public sector investment program will berelatively minor during the period, except for a gradually declining impacton the construction sector as a result of investments in infrastructure, andan increase in production of bananas. Since most of the productive invest-ments occur in the latter half of the period and require a long gestation,the major impact on GDP in agriculture, forestry, and fishing will occurafter 1983. The public sector investment program has not been intended to

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generate much employment since the bulk of expenditure is directed toagriculture where labor is in short supply; investments in infrastructureand in the private industrial sector are expected to create most of the newjobs for the urban unemployed during the five-year period.

138. The public sector investment program for Belize amounts to atotal of BZ$361.5 million over the period projected. Expenditure in 1979 isestimated at BZ$73.6 million, an increase of 51% over the 1978 level asa result of massive disbursements on infrastructural projects. The level ofexpenditure is projected to decline sharply from the 1979 peak until 1982,when the program resumes an upward trend, finishing at BZ$79.1 million in1983. In 1978 prices, public sector investment drops from BZ$68 million in1979 to about BZ$53 million in 1981, where it holds steady through the endof the period. The public sector investment program averages 24% of GDPthroughout the five years projected, as compared to 13% from 1975-77.Public capital expenditure peaks at 32% of GDP in 1979 after rising sharplyto 25% in 1978, because of large infrastructure projects implemented on aturnkey basis, and falls off to a plateau of 21% in the latter half of theperiod. Fixed capital formation accounts for 90% of total capital expendi-ture for each of the five years projected.

139. Whereas 80% of the public sector investment program consistsof projects for which external assistance is requested or has already beensecured, 20% represents projects and capital programs to be financed entirelyby local funds. This local investment, which is in addition to Government'scounterpart contributions to projects involving external donors, is largelynonprojectized and comprised of small, miscellaneous expenditures. Thetotally local investment is projected to remain almost constant in realterms over the period at the 1978 level of BZ$11 million. The projectsrequiring external assistance will be divided about equally between CentralGovernment and the rest of the public sector, on average, through 1983.The role of Central Government is expected to decline over the period,however, as transporation projects wind down and the relative importance ofthe development bank and state enterprise increases, with electricity,telephone, housing, and credit schemes coming on stream. The transition ofroles between Central Government and other public sector institutions may beconsidered a firmly established trend, since investment in the 1974-78period was divided 75% and 25%, respectively. About one-fifth of theprojected public sector investment is accounted for by ongoing projects.

140. Fully two-thirds of the projected public capital expenditure will bemade in the productive sectors (agriculture, industry, tourism, transportation,power and communications), with the first three sectors receiving 44% of totalcapital outlays. 1/ The relative importance of agriculture will increasesteadily from 21% of the program in 1979 to 49% in 1983, with outlays ofBZ$13.0 million and BZ$31.5 million, respectively. Major ongoing projects

1/ In the sectoral discussion which follows, "total investment" and"total expenditure" excludes the projects with 10% local financing.

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include construction of grain storage silos with aid from CIDA and the CDB-financed rice mill and sugarcane feeder roads. The UK is financing construc-tion of a farmer's market in Belize City, a rural development scheme in theToledo District, and a pilot tobacco project. A loan of BZ$5.8 million to theBanana Control Board has recently been approved by CDB for development of theinfrastructure required to extend banana production in the Bladen-Trio area.Requests have also been made to the CDC and EDF to complete the first phase ofthe banana development scheme in Cowpen and assist the expansion to Bladen-Trio,with the CDC funds to be allocated for irrigation.

141. External financial assistance already in the pipeline includes acombined loan/grant of BZ$10 million from the EDF for Belize's share in theregional grain soya project. Proposals have been submitted to CDB for fund-ing a dairy development scheme, to EDF for an extension of a veterinarylaboratory, and to the UK for a badly needed agricultural training school.CIDA has indicated interest in a development project for the Belize RiverValley and Belize Marketing Board, pending the outcome of recent preinvest-ment studies. Donors will be approached to finance a full fledged tobaccomechanization project, livestock, deep-sea fishing, cassava and coconutdevelopment. These new projects appear to have considerable potential fordiversifying agriculture, expanding sectoral GDP, and providing a basis foragroprocessing, although they require much further preparation.

142. Industry and tourism together absorb 6% of total public capitalexpenditure over the period, with the proportion reaching 8% in the lasttwo years as the forestry development project comes on stream. The CDB hashad the heaviest involvement in industry to date among the donors. Apartfrom credit schemes, the construction of industrial estates comprises thelargest ongoing expenditure by CDB in the sector. Further loans have beenrequested from CDB to finance a paper-converting plant and construction ofthe hotel in Belmopan. Although small in volume, a funding program forreconstruction of the Mayan sites is important to the development of thetourism sector, and a continuation of UK aid for this purpose has beenincluded in the total investment package.

143. After very intensive ongoing investment in the Northern andHummingbird Highways, funded by the UK, and in the CDB-financed port forBelize City, expenditure on transportation is projected to decline fromthe peak of over 40% of total capital outlays in 1978 and 1979 to a mere2% in 1983. Although the UK involvement in road building is likely tocontinue through the middle of the five year period with the construction ofa 17-mile link in the Western Highway and several smaller projects, theemphasis of the sectoral investment shifts in the later years to improvementof air transport. The EDF has been approached to finance construction ofthe Belize International Airport apron, and a donor may be sought for a newterminal building late in the period. Although the Government proposes toseek external financing for an extension of the present runway to 8,000feet, justification for this project is questionable at the present time andit has, therefore, not been included in the public investment program.

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144. The power and communications sectors receive a relatively largeproportion of total capital outlays during the projected period (10%), as aresult of much-needed expansion in the telephone network and electricitygeneration capacity and in the broadcasting facilities. A loan for theelectricity project is presently under consideration by CDB, and both theUK and EDF have been requested to finance extension of the broadcastingsystem to rural areas. Although the electricity and telephone projectsare essential as infrastructural support for development of industry, theElectricity Board and to a lesser extent, the Telephone Authority will haveto take measures to improve their management capacity and financial viabilitybefore investments to greatly expand their services are undertaken.

145. The social sector are projected to account for one-third of totalinvestment, with water and sewage and housing absorbing the majority of theoutlay. The Belize City water and sewerage project, which has been underwaysince 1977 with CIDA funds, has encountered serious cost overruns with theresult that the initial combined grant and loan of BZ$18.8 million hasproven adequate to implement only half of the original design for the city.A new request for BZ$14 million to complete the scheme has been includedin the investment program, with this second phase projected to begin in 1980.A major increase in public investment in housing is required over the period,although a departure from the past style of projects must be taken if theserious backlog of housing is to be met at costs which the poorer familiescan afford. The sites and services project which is under considerationby EDF is consistent with the new approach needed. Sources must still be.identified to finance an additional BZ$17.4 million for the proposed housingprogram.

146. Whereas the UK is the only donor other than private church organi-zations involved in ongoing school construction, the EDF is considering arequest to provide funding for building rural junior secondary school. CIDAhas indicated interest in giving major assistance for implementation of theNational Vocational Program, pending the recommendations to come from currentstudy of technical and equipment needs. Three projects to improve primaryeducation and expansion and consolidation of tertiary level education willalso require external assistance during the period. The Government will beseeking donor assistance for an expansion and renovation of rural healthcenters, in addition to a UK project already underway to construct threesuch facilities. Construction of a new hospital for Belize City representsthe largest single investment among the new projects, although the costestimations are very tentative since detailed designs have not been prepared.

147. Even though the major ongoing projects, such as the Belize Cityport, water and sewerage, and Northern Highway, have been implemented largelyby foreign contractors, long delays have been encountered resulting in costoverruns and, for the former two projects, a cutback in design of the finalfacility. Implementation of the proposed investment program will requirethat contractors and managers continue to be provided from external sources,since the necessary manpower is not available in Belize. The Governmentrecognizes this fact and has expressed willingness to use foreign contractors

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and to let projects be closely supervised by donors. Technical support to theGovernment is also essential for preparation of many of the projects which arecurrently at the concept stage, though they have been included in the invest-ment program with costs roughly estintated. Priority areas for such technicalassistance are agriculture (particularly for cassava development), forestry,deep-sea fishing, and housing.

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IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 1979-83

A. Output and Expenditure

148. The prospects for both short- and medium-term growth appear good.In 1979 the economy is expected to be able to achieve a 4.5% growth in realGDP as the agricultural sector recovers from the impact of Hurricane Gretaalthough sugar production is expected to decline as a result of an outbreakof smut. Agricultural output is projected to grow by 15% after fallingby nearly 9% in 1978. During the period 1980-83 real GDP growth is projectedto increase slightly to an average of 5% per annum, 3 1/2% per capita. Agri-culture, spurred by increasing output of sugar and bananas, is expected togrow at about 7% a year. Manufacturing, also heavily influenced by sugaras well as the expansion of the enclave garment industry, is anticipated tobe able to achieve an annual real growth rate of nearly 6%.

149. The level of investment is expected to reach a high point in 1979.If the public sector completes a number of major ongoing infrastructuralprojects on a timely basis, public sector investment will peak in 1979 andthen fall consistently in real terms through 1983. On the assumption that theGovernment is able to restore confidence in the economy, it is anticipatedthat private sector investment will be able to grow in line with GDP. Conse-quently, gross domestic investment is projected to increase from almost 40% ofGDP in 1978 to 46% in 1979 before declining steadily to 37% of GDP in 1983.Such levels of investment are expected to build up the economic infrastructureand the country's productive capacity and place the economy in a position tosustain a least a 5% real growth rate for the rest of the 1980s.

150. The strong growth performance, together with the projected improve-ment in the terms of trade as sugar prices improve, are expected to lead tosustained increases in real consumption and savings. Private consumptionis projected to increase at an average of 3.6% per annum in real terms between1978 and 1983. National savings are expected to increase from 12% of GDPin 1978 to 18% in 1983 when public sector savings should reach almost 6% ofGDP and private sector savings over 12%.

151. Available indicators imply that population could continue to growat about 1.3% per annum between 1977 and 1983, with the labor force increasingat 1.2% per annum. As a result, 3,000 new entrants will be seeking jobs duringthe period in addition to the 1,600 already estimated as unemployed. Urbanjob seekers will have to rely on construction and private investment inindustry for employment prospects. The public investment program can beexpected to provide a number of temporary jobs in construction in the earlyyears of the program. Approximately 450 new jobs are expected from invest-ments which have already been approved for the establishment or expansionof manufacturing firms. However many of these jobs are earmarked forfemale laborers who are already in short supply.

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152. Given the emphasis of public investment in agriculture andinfrastructure in the rural areas, the majority of of employment to begenerated is likely to be in the rural areas. If the overall employmentsituation is to improve over the period, internal migration to thetowns, particularly Belize City, must not increase and the people willhave to develop more favorable attitudes towards engaging in directcultivation of agricultural resources.

B. Financing of Public Sector Investment

153. The public finances have consistently been able to produce a localcontribution to the public sector investment program but, with the fall inthe world sugar price and the deteriorating financial position of the restof the public sector, this contribution has declined in recent years. Thishas been overcome to a degree by increasing Government indebtedness to thedomestic financial system. The public sector is now faced with a large publicinvestment program requiring substantial local contributions at a time whenthe domestic financial system, if it is to adequately supply credit to theprivate sector and maintain foreign reserves, is no longer in a position tocontinue to supply large amounts of financing to the public sector.

154. Public sector capital expenditures totaling BZ$361.4 million areprojected for 1979-83. It is anticipated that external sources of financewill continue to cover a large but declining proportion of the investmentprogram. 1/ In 1979 external loans and grants, including the UK HurricaneRehabilitation Grant, are projected to total BZ$63.7 million, 87% of theprogram, declining to BZ$57.4 million, 73% of the program, by 1983. Thisimplies gross external disbursements of BZ$281.4 million (US$140.7 million).Of this amount 29% has already been committed to specific projects, includinghurricane rehabilitation. The remaining BZ$200.2 million (US$100.1 million)remains to be arranged from external sources. Amortization payments areexpected to increase as the moratoria on a number of existing CDB loansexpire but the burden will still remain low, 1.2% of export earnings in1983. Capital revenues are not expected to show any real increase andconsequently it will be necessary to mobilize a total of BZ$92.8 millionfrom local resources over the five-year period.

1/ The following assumptions were made concerning the availability ofexternal financing:

(1) For ongoing projects or projects where donors have indicateda probable willingness to provide finance, estimates to availableexternal finance are based upon data supplied by donors.

(2) Nonprojectized capital expenditures are assumed to be locallyfinanced.

(3) Projects for which financing is being sought are assumed torequire a local contribution of 10%.

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155. In 1979, on the basis of the approved budget and projected economicperformance, it is estimated that central government current savings willincrease from BZ$7.2 million in 1978 to BZ$9.4 million, 3.6% of GDP. However,it is unlikely that the rest of the public sector will be able to do betterthan to reduce its current deficit from BZ$3.7 million to BZ$2.3 million.As a result, public sector savings are projected to increase from BZ$3.5million, 1.5% of GDP in 1978, to 2.7% of GDP in 1979. The public investmentprogram for 1979 requires that BZ$11.1 million be found from local resources.The Government is proposing to raise BZ$2 million from the commercial bankingsystem to finance part of this counterpart even though this may lead to aslight reduction in the international reserves of the financial system during1979. A gap of BZ$2 million, less than 0.8% of GDP, remains. This amountcould be covered from the Caribbean Development Facility (CDF) with the fundsbeing specifically earmarked for the local cost contributions of ongoingexternally financed development projects. 1/

156. The decline in the level of public sector capital expenditures from1980-83 is not expected to reduce the required local financing contributions;a total of BZ$81.7 million is projected for the four years. On the basisof expected economic growth, if the existing effective budgetary control ismaintained and assuming that no new revenue measures are introduced thecentral government current surplus is projected to increase to BZ$17.3 million,4% of GDP, by 1983. Central government savings for the four-year period areprojected to total BZ$53.7 million, nearly 19% of total public sector capitalexpenditures. However, the rest of the public sector has in recent yearsbeen a significant dissaver. If the public investment program is to beadequately financed this position needs to be reversed at an early date.To achieve this the following measures are necessary:

(i) the Belize Electricity Board needs to be placed on a financiallyviable footing. This will require a substantial increase in tariffs andimproved management capabilities.

(ii) the losses incurred by the Banana Control Board need to beeliminated which will necessarily involve an elimination of the subsidiespresently being provided to banana producers.

(iii) the proposed Social Security Fund will have to be introducedas soon as possible.

If these measures are enacted on a timely basis it will be possible to generatea surplus in the rest of the public sector of BZ$1.5 million in 1980, increas-ing to BZ$5.4 million by 1983.

1/ The CIDA financed Belize City Water and Sewerage Project and CDB financedBelize City Port are expected to require BZ$4 million in local cost contri-butions during 1979.

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Table 1: FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT, 1977-83

(as % of GDP)

Actual Estimated Projected1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Uses 14.1 22.6 28.6 24.1 20.4 19.4 18.R

Public Sector CapitalExpenditure 12.9 21.5 27.9 22.9 19.4 18.4 17.9External Amortization 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9

Sources 14.1 22.6 28.6 20.1 20.4 19.4 18.8

Domestic Financing 5.1 6.4 3.7 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.8Public Sector Savings 0.9 1.5 2.7 4 5.4 5.9 5.6(Central Government) (2.8) (3.2) (3.6) (4.4) (4.5) (4.7) (4.4)

of which: New Measures (-) (-) (-) (1.L) (1.Q) tl.1) (0.5)(Rest of Public Sector) (-1.9) (-1.6) (-0.9) (0. ) (1.0) (1.1) (1.2)

Capital Revenue 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Net Domestic Borrowing 3.9 4.6 0.8 - - - -

External Financing 9.0 16.2 24.9 18.9 14.7 13.3 13.pExternal Loans and Grants 7.6 16.2 24.2 18.9 14.7 13.3 13.0(Ongoing Projects) (7.6) (16.2) (17.7) (J. 7) (2.6) (0.5) (-)(New Projects) (-) (-) (6.4) (11.1) (12.1) (12. 8 (13. 0)

CDF - - 0.8 - - - -Other 1.4 - - - - - -

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157. Nevertheless, further measures will be required if the publicinvestment program is to be adequately financed. The increase in domesticcredit to the public sector was so rapid in 1977 and 1978 that it is pro-jected that the domestic financial system will not be in a position toincrease credit to the public sector at all between 1980 and 1983. Con-sequently, the central government will need to take a number of measures inorder to increase its current account surplus by a total of BZ$13.3 millionover four years. It is recommended that the measures be in the form ofa package which should concentrate on taxes on expenditure, particularlythose on imports. The required measures average approximately 1% ofGDP and are expected to increase projected public sector savings to BZ$14.9million, 5% of GDP, in 1980 rising to 5.7% of GDP in 1983.

C. Balance of Payments

158. The surge in investment expenditure in 1979 is expected to bereflected directly in an increased import bill and a wider current accountdeficit. However, a strong export performance and the gradual decline ininvestment is expected to reduce the current deficit through 1983. If theinflow of private capital and concessional public capital continues asprojected the current account deficit can be adequately financed withreserves being proportionately maintained without creating a debt servicingproblem.

159. Export receipts are heavily dependent upon the performance ofsugar. Price prospects for sugar are fairly strong for the world market asit is expected that the new International Sugar Agreement will raise pricesfrom their present low level. The outbreak of smut is likely to reducesugar exports in 1979. However, if prices increases as projected, growershould have the incentive to increase production. By 1983 exports of sugarare projected to reach nearly 110,000 tons, 9% above the existing record1978 level with receipts more than doubling. The expansion of bananaacreage is expected to lead to a major increase in banana exports. Exportsare projected to increase from 10,000 tons in 1978 to reach 35,000 tons by1983. Garment exports are also expected to increase substantially, growingby almost 10% a year on average in real terms between 1978 and 1983, follow-ing the expansion of the factory near Belize City. In total, export volumesare projected to increase by 5% per annum on average between 1978 and 1983and export prices to grow by nearly 11% a year.

160. Imports, fueled by increased investment and the need to repairdamage from the hurricane, are projected to increase by 19% in nominalterms in 1979 and reach 105% of GDP. However, as investment declines,repairs after the hurricane are completed and import substituting agricul-tural output increases imports are expected to proportionately declinegrowing by about 1% per annum on average in real terms through 1983.Despite an expected increase in the outflow of factor service payments, thecurrent account deficit is projected to decline from US$53 million (40% ofGDP) in 1979 to US$42 million (19% of GDP) in 1983.

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161. If the inflow of concessional public capital assistance turns outto be as projected and if private capital inflows are maintained at levelseven slightly lower than those attained in recent years, the current accountdeficit can be adequately financed and net international reserves maintained'at about 1.2 months of imports. The external debt service ratio is projectedto remain stable at about 2% between 1978 and 1983. Even though substantialexternal financing is projected for the period, continued growth of GDP andexport receipts are likely to ensure that external debt servicing will notbecome a burden in the foreseeable future and that Belize will continue tobe creditworthy for external borrowing on conventional terms.

D. Conclusion

162. The economic prospects of Belize indicate that a continued stronggrowth performance can be expected through 1983. If the public sectorinvestment program is implemented efficiently and without delay and if theGovernment succeeds in restoring confidence in the private sector a soundbase should be created for possibly even more rapid growth in the late1980s. However, despite the basic strength of the public finances, a numberof additional measures will be required if the public sector investmentprogram is to be adequately financed.

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GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

1. This report contains a list of major ongoing projects, a list ofprojects for which external finance will be sought during the period 1979/83,individual project descriptions and individual technical assistance profiles.Each list contains the name of the project, the executing agency, theexpected lender(s), if any, the total cost, the external financing obtainedor required, the counterpart contribution required, and the estimatedrecurrent costs during the 1979/83 period. The individual descriptionscontain additional information which would be of interest to potentialdonors or lenders, including technical assistance requirements and thepresent status of the project.

2. Data for these project lists, which will be presented at themeeting of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Developmentscheduled for June 4-9, 1979, were provided by the Government of Belize orestimated by IBRD sector specialists. The project lists for 1979/83 reflectthe developmental strategy of the Government of Belize, as outlined in theEconomic Memorandum dated April 11, 1979.

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BELIZE: MAJOR ONGOING PROJECTS

(US$ 000)

-xtarnal Amor- Grace CounterpartTocal Financing Interest tization Period Financina Reucrrenc CostsCost Secured Source (0) (years) (years) aount 1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Agriculture

Tobacco Project 326 326 U8 Grant - - - - - - - - -Rice Mill 438 333 CDB 4 15 5 105 24 - - - _ _Sugarcane Feeder Roads Z750 2,469 CDB 4 15 5 281 10 - - 30 32 35Rurad Gevelopment Toledo 1,400 1,400 UK Grant - - - - - - - - -3FC Crop Loan 488 438 2K Grant - - 50 .0 - - - - -AgriCul:ural Production Credit 1,245 1,245 COB 4 15 5 - - - - - - -Farm Improvemnrnt Credit 47 1-306 995 CDB 4 _5 5 111. 10 - - - -Agricultural/Industrial Credits 1,100 1,.00 CDB 4 15 5 - - - - - -Crain Storage 2 (297 Z41 CIDA Grant - - 250 .0

(2,007 CIDA O 40 10 - - - - - _ _

bndustry

Ladyville Industrial Estate 530 .80 CDB 4 1;5 50 9In6ustrial Credits (SIC and AIC) 2,398 2,598 CDB 4 15 5 - -

Tourism

Tourism Credits (SIC and AIC) 1,228 1,Z23 CDB 4 15 5

Transoortation

S4orthern High.ay 13,.32 13,432 CIK Grant - ;0 4 8 62Belize River Valley Ferry 182 182 LK Grant -- - - - - 12 3 15Deep Water Port 10,387 9,137 CDB 4 15 5 1,250 12 - - - - -Commerce Oighc :etty 350 318 CDB 15 5 32 9 - - -Savigation Lights 572 572 CX Grant - - - - - - 12 15 17

2ater SUDPlY and Severage

Orange Walk and Corozal Water 255 255 UK Grant - -San Pedro Water 139 139 OIX Grant - -Seliza Cicy Water and Sewerage 1 11,386 (2,469 CIDA Grant - - 1,05S 43 - - - - -

(6,916 CIDA 0 40 10 943 14 - - - - -

Educat ;on

UK Seholarships 314 314 L%` Grant - - - - - - - - -Education Training 525 525 CIDA Grant - - - - - - - - -Studenc Loans Higher Iducation #2 336 336 CDB 4 15 5

Miscellaneous

Caneral AdMinistraCive Infrastructure 369 369 UK Grant - - - - - - 19 23 23?rt"an/Police 1,343 1,343 UK Grant - - - - - - - 150 170Misason Adminiscered Fumd 525 525 CIDA Grant - - - - -Defense ,950 2,950 UK Grant - - - - -Technical AsSAtcance to DFC 175 175 CIDA Grant - - - - -

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BELIZE: MAOR SEW PROJECTS AND SOUIRCE OF FINDANCING

(035 3009

Etcernal CounterpartTotal FSacting Financing Recurrent CoatsCost Required Source usunt 7 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

A,rlctureAgriculturai Traiing School 730 790 X - - - - - - - -Veterinary laboratory 480 430 SDF - - - - - - 0Regional Grain-Soya PFhases 1, L) d,300 7,300 EDF/CDS 200 3Edible Oils anc oacs 585 535 CD8 50 9AgricuLtural Equiet 5333 535 'XT1 - - - - - - -Seed ProductIon 98 98 S - - - - - - -Dairy Developmenc/Land Settlement 1,175 1,338 CDs 117 i03eep Sea Fishing 5,000 4,470 Unxnowi 330 11-1ooscco Mechaioztcion 2,100 1,900 CD3 200 10beiize River Valley Follow-up 4.750 o,250 'IDA 300 10 - - - - -Csaua Jevelopeeni 4,412 31982 15/CDB 130 10 - - _ _Coconut D-velopetc 275 050 s C5 9 - - - - -Siall Famer Crecios 500 ;50 Inknown -

orr Improve,menc Credit *8 I.111 1.300 CD8 111 103anana Control Scare 10,330 9,495 CDC/CDB/EDF :,.35 10Livestock Dev-io-entr 12,500 11,250 ckuown 1,_50 i100L.ce acrketLtg iaurd FoLlow-up 369 304 lIna hi :11corther Agriculcural Creulca 3.250 2.925 CZB 3Z3 10 - - - --... - Forescry leoslopeant 195 '35 Cankown,,

oduso cr-yoapar Converting :75 165 CDB C5 10

Forescry Developemnc 3,300 Z,200 Inonown 300 :0industry Creaios :,i77 1,510 CDB 167 10

,niuscrial Estates 510 510 CDB

Vouriunz3e4mopan docel 591 .91 ZZD 110 1-.ourism Credots 748 573 CDB 5 1Z - - - - -.A. - Tourism -evslopment/Morketing 535 35 'Izknoon - - - - - - -

Vransprttac -oSan Antonio Road 59 59 E--ump -San Miguel Road 99 998 D-

-estern Highway 975 975 .--Sotchern Highway Oridges 196 196 x - -_ - - 19 20

.vane and Other lquipmenc 209 239 'X - - - b 9 10 .1-urricane MAnage - Javigacion lights 1Z5 125 CX - - 3 .

Airport C0R/DEff 293 293 >knor. - - - - - - -Airport Fire Staton 139 139 IX _ _ - _ 6 7

oype Caulker Airstrip 128 129 Dl - - - - - V 8SeioZ. -nterstatosal Airport Apron HO0 600 PDF -3elioe Enternational Airport Terminal 3,300 3,150 Counown 350 10Low Level Port Facility 215 193 Cknoon 20 -0

Co.municaclonsRural 3roadcascig 992 382 EDF/Dl 110 1: - - - .1 13Co.ephone Emoena.on 3,885 3,500 Mcroliers'Crec-it/ 333 10

PowerOlsctriclt: Expansion 103 00 9.000 CDB 1,300C 0

Re aletRural Health Centrs 9 .9 'X - - - - 1 25 30Mencal Sospital 98 38 X IC 0 - - - - -Hospical Equipmenc 1V57 17 saknown - - - - - - 3Subl-c Health ;.hicl.s 171 i71 Cok-own - - - - 3 9 13Setovat400 Ssalch Centers 123 132 'Cnxnon 13 13 - - - 5

Sew Health Centers 156 139 Ckoown : --

3elile CIty Hospital 14,343 110, 57 EDF 17/rrko- 1,396 9 - - - - -

'ater and SewerageSealie City W.cer and Sewerage 'I 7,000 6,300 CZDA -,0-0 i-incer Supply Coronal VIllages 117 117 'BC-Rural Hacer Supply 290 290 -i/CIDA - - - - - - -

Ejucat lotRural VImior Secondary Schoolo : 375 1,375 ZDF - - - - - - '002aloze Jun or Seconoary Expansion 195 193 1C-';ocatconal -raining Center C02 _6 X K 3 - - - 4 1j

Public Sector 7:ainisg Cencer 9 57 ZK - - - - -_PrcLary Scnool Cacoers.' Houses 342 3iC Thecown 25 13

Pr:rary School Txor.ook Procuction 197 177 ok-ovn 23 ''inpansion Reap Program 1iS 13 Ivno 15 IZ - - - 3 6elcost 3-2 2,13:32 sIYo, sown 350 30

Follovsaips ond loans 1,300 1,300 CSIC2DA,CZI - - -

National VocatIonal Crusinng 323 316 C'DA 34 1-A - Manpower SC- ipy 15 25 Icknosm - -

R-usinguOlOs-g Sites cod Services 600 S6O ED-F

Secneary Morrgage ue 1,210 I:i 22 CZB 8Z - - - - -Rural Hous ng coans 530 330 -know -

'o a .ncce ROeSi-g 3,300 1,130 Crunoi. Z50 :0lower-MISdo_ Income Snus:sg _Cei:22 rnown :3_ G - - - - -Mudsl Income Housing o 50 -:H I5nkoown -no 13 - - - -

Irban Mortgage loans 975 375 rsnown 12. ;-.A - Sousing Frogro, 3b S :5owr- -5

Museu Ar-n-vs 198d 'd - - - - - 22 33Ire Srac:on, e.ezee Co:v 6 IC - - - - - - -SeiO 3cr irlSo 6 .o-:A - Z - - - 13 Clt-os1 C Hoa- Training _Cotar 1 Voonos- : - - - - -Rdmcccotrarlve Su.idog, 3el ze 3::y S5 Joconxown -S VI- -

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BELIZE

1979/83 Proiect List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Agricultural Training School

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture and Lands

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: 780

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: 780

V. LENDING AGENCY: UK

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: A school is to be constructed to provide nonacademic, technical training in agriculturefor middle level staff, with an emphasis oncommercial farming. The school will providea 3-year course for high school graduates andup to 1 year of training for primary schoolgraduates in operation of agriculturalmachinery, maintenance, bookkeeping, etc.

B. Justification; Presently no formal training course exists inBelize to train middle level agricultural man-power or agricultural craftsmen.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs - 195 195 25Foreign Costs - 585 585 75Total Costs - Amount - 780 780

- % - 100 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - -

External Sources 145 490 145 - - 780Total 145 490 145 - - 780

- 56 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project outline has been prepared and arequest for funding submitted to the UK.

X. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: Recurrent costs are to be met byrevenue generated by school farm.

Debt Obligations: none.

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: UK is expected to provide thenecessary technical assistance.

- 57 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Project List - Individual Project Description


I. NAME OF PROJECT: Food Processing Equipment

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: DFC





A. Description: The project provides equipment for pioneerprocessing of jams and jellies (presentlya cottage industry).

B. Justification: The project will expand opportunities foragro processing, with the aim of producingfor local consumption.



Local Costs - - -Foreign Costs - 20 20 100Total Costs - Amount - 20 20

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - -External Sources 15 5 - _ - 20Total 15 5 -20

- 58 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project request is to be submitted to UK.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) NoneDebt Obligations: )

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None

- 59 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Veterinary Laboratory, Belize City




V. LENDING AGENCY: EDF


A. Description: Project provides for alterations to andexpansion of veterinary laboratory in BelizeCity and purchase of additional lab equipment.

B. Justification: Expansion of the livestock program is a vitalpart of Government's development program. To-successfully achieve this, detailed knowledgeof endemic livestock diseases must be acquiredand an animal health organization establishedwhich is capable of controlling diseases andinitiating prevention and quarantine.



Local Costs - 120 120 25Foreign Costs - 360 360 75Total Costs - Amount - 480 480 -

-% - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 50 255 125 50 - 480Total 50 255 125 50 - 480

- 60 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project is included in EDF indicativeprogram for 1979-82. Project design has been prepared.

X. TERM4S OF FINANCING: Grant

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 70Debt Obligations: None

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Four veterinarians are requiredto staff the laboratory.

- 61 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Regional Grain-Soya (Phases I and II)

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Caricom Grains Ltd.

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: 8,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: 7,800

V. LENDING AGENCY: EDF (via CDB)


A. Description: Project involves production of corn and beanson 7500 acres of land in Belize River Valley,for export to Caribbean markets.

B. Justification: Strong potential exists for increased productionof corn and beans both for local consumptionas well as for export.



Local Costs 200 1,400 1,600 20Foreign Costs - 6,400 6,400 80Total Costs - Amount 200 7,800 8,000 -

-% 3 97 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - 100 200 100External Sources - 1000 1,500 1.500 2900 7,800 900Total - 1,000 1,500 1,500 3,000 8,000 1,000

- 62 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Feasibility was undertaken in 1978, resultingin change of emphasis of project from Soya to corn and beans. Market-ing arrangements must be worked out with Caricom as a precondition tocommencement of the project. The EDF has already expressed interestin providing US$5 million to start up project.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: Not determined

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. required to support extensionservice in assisting corn farmers to become more productive.

- 63 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Edible Oils and Fats




V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB


A. Description: Project aims to determine the feasibilityof obtaining oil from soya and coconuts.A pilot scheme is to be established.

B. Justification: The project would contribute to the dev-elopment of agro processing industry.



Local Costs 50 67 117 20Foreign Costs - 468 468 80Total Costs - Amount 50 535 585

- % 9 91 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - 25 25 50 -External Sources - - 150 175 210 535 -

Total - - 150 200 235 585 -

- 64 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project request has been submitted to CDBfor funding.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: None during 1979-83

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: CDB will provide the necessary T.A.

- 65 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Agricultural Equipment






A. Description: Provision of land clearing equipment, tractors,harvesters, ploughs, harrows, etc. for anagricultural equipment rental scheme. Equip-ment is to be rented to private farmers atfull economic cost.

B. Justification: Improvements in agricultural productivity areexpected to result from use of mechanization bymedium-sized farmers; equipment will also permitmore acreage to be cleared for cultivation.



Local Costs - - - -Foreign Costs - 535 535 100Total Costs - Amount - 535 535 -

- % - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 117 168 200 50 - 535Total 117 168 200 50 - 535

- 66 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Request to be submitted to the UKfor funding.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: None


- 67 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Seed Production






A. Description: The project involves the establishment ofa 1000-acre seed farm in the Belize RiverValley.

B. Justification: To provide farmers access to seed varietieswhich have good growing potential in thecountry.


Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount x


- % - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources - 75 23 - - 98Total - 75 23 - - 98

- 68 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK is to be approached.




- 69 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Dairy Development/Land Settlement

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Dairy Corporation (to be established)





A. Description: The project establishes a company to implementa dairy programme, involving six nucleusherds (960 cows total), two rearing farms,milk collection and processing. The projectaims to produce, process, and distribute10 million gallons of milk annually by year20. Settlement farms and associated farmswill also be established.

B. Justification: The project would permit substitution ofimported milk, one of the major importedfood items.


Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount _

Local Costs 117 177 294 25Foreign Costs - 881 881 75Total Costs - Amount 117 1,058 1,175

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 17 40 60 117 -External Sources - - 158 360 540 1058 -Total - - 175 400 600 1,175 -

- 70 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CDB has completed project appraisal.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. will be required to developdairying expertise in the extension service.

- 71 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Deep Sea Fishing

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade and Industry,Cooperatives and Consumer Protection



V. LENDING AGENCY: Unknown


A. Description: Projected is intended to: (a) establish afleet of 10 boats (50 ft. each) equippedwith hand and electric reels, echo sounder,and other appropriate tackle and equipmentfor harvesting stocks; (b) establish a fishhandling complex with adequate freezing, coldstorage, and ice-making facilities; (c) providetraining for key personnel, e.g. fishingcaptains, marine engineers, refrigerationtechnologists, etc.

B. Justification: (a) To increase the supply of fish on thedomestic market thereby augmenting thesupply of a high quality protein;

(b) To provide a valuable source of foreignexchange by increasing the export offish from Belize.



Local Costs 530 470 1,000 20Foreign Costs - 4,000 4,000 80Total Costs - Amount 530 4,470 5,000

- % 11 89 100

- 72 -


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 100 100 100 530 230External Sources - - 700 800 900 4,470 2,070Total - - 800 900 1,000 5,000 2,300

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study on Western CaribbeanFisheries Project done by CDB in 1976.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during 1979-83Debt Obligations: Not determined

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance will berequired to undertake feasibilities study and to provide instructorsfor fisheries training component.

- 73 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Prolect List - Individual Proiect Description


I. NAME OF PROJECT: Tobacco Mechanization






A. Description: The project aims at expanding the tobaccoindustry, by:

(a) production of seedlings for sale tofarmers,

(b) acquisition of farm machinery, and(c) processing and marketing

B. Justification: Considerable potential exists for productionand export of tobacco to the Caribbean region



Local Costs 200 220 420 20Foreign Costs - 1,680 1,680 80Total Costs - Amount 200 1,900 2,100

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 10 40 50 50 50 200 -External Sources 100 400 500 450 450 1,900 -

Total 110 440 550 500 500 2,100 -

- 74 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A project study has been completed, basedon a pilot scheme which was carried out with UK aid. CDB is to beapproached to fund the larger project.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The CDB is expected to providethe necessary T.A.

- 75 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Proiect List - Individual Proiect Description


I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize River Valley Follow-up




V. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA


A. Description: The project will be the outcome of the BelizeRiver Valley study already undertaken by CIDA.Components will include development of soilsand infrastructure.

B. Justification: Considerable agricultural potential in theBelize River Valley is presently untapped,partly as a result of the lack of infrastructure.



Local Costs 500 687 1,187 25Foreign Costs - 3,563 3.563 75Total Costs - Amount 500 4,250 4,750

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 75 125 150 150 500 -External Sources - 675 1,125 1,100 1,350 4,250Total - 750 1,250 1,250 1,500 4,750 -

- 76 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Preparation study has been undertakenby CIDA. CIDA has expressed interest in funding components of theproject identified by the study.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during 1979-83 (project underpreparation and implementation.

Debt Obligations: None

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: CIDA Is expected to provide thenecessary T.A.

- 77 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Cassava Development




V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB, UK


A. Description: The project will in the first phase set uptrial mechanized cassava production on 500acres, to be expanded to cover 7000 acresper year with an eventual target of 50,000acres. If production is successful, a pro-cessing plant to produce industrial starchis envisioned in a later phase of the project(post 1984).

B. Justification: Considerable potential exists for the cul-tivation of cassava, with good possibilitiesof agro processing for export.




-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 20 35 50 160 430 165External Sources - 190 305 562 1,440 3,982 1,485Total - 210 340 612 1,600 4,412 1,650

- 78 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Land is available with little clearancerequired. Project is at concept stage. The UK is to be approachedto finance pilot trials and the CDB for the financing of the fullproject.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is required to prepare andimplement the project.

- 79 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Coconut Development






A. Description: The project will extend the existing coconutseedling nursery to provide young plants tofarmers at full cost. 20,000 plants are tobe provided annually over 5 years. An ex-panded extension service for coconut farmersis also to be developed.

B. Justification: Strong potential exists for increased pro-duction of coconuts as a means of improvingagricultural export earnings.




-% 9 91 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 5 5 5 5 25 5External Sources 16 24 45 50 55 250 60Total 16 29 50 55 60 275 65

- 80 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Seed material is already available, thetree crop officer already working in the Ministry on a technicalassistance control will develop the required extension service.UK is to be approached.




- 81 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Small Farmer Credits

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Development Finance Corporation





A. Description: The project is a continuation of our ongoingprogram of loans to low income farmers.Construction of offices for field supervisorsand provision of vehicles are included inproject costs. The funds are to be on-lentto small farmers for purchase of inputs,construction of housing, purchase of machinery,land clearance, working capital, etc.

B. Justification: A line of credit is needed to enable farmersat or near subsistence level to improve theirefficiency and scale of production.



Local Costs - 500 500 100Foreign Costs - - - -Total Costs - Amount - 500 500

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - -External Sources 163 150 150 37 - 500Total 163 150 150 37 - 500

- 82 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The small farmer credit scheme has begunwith a grant from the UK. Further funding has been included in theEDF indicative program for 1979-82.




- 83 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Farm Improvement Credit #8






A. Description: Continuation of existing credit scheme.

B. Justification: To provide a continuous source of agriculturalcredit.



Local Costs 1II 1,000 1,111 100

Foreign Costs - - - -Total Costs - Amount 111 1,000 1,111

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 56 55 - - - 111 -External Sources 300 700 - 1,000Total 356 755 - - - 1,111 -

- 84 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been approved by CDB butprecedent conditions have not been met as yet.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: 4Amortization Period: 15



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None

- 85 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Banana Control Board

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Banana Control Board



V. LENDING AGENCY: CDC, CDB, EDF


A. Description: The project develops and expands the bananaindustry in the Big Creek area (Phase I)and in Cowpen (Phase II). The projectincludes irrigation of 1,600 acres of existingcultivated lands at Cowpen and the openingup of a further 1,200 acres under irrigation;construction of basic infrastructure (roads,cableways, etc.) and farmer housing.

B. Justification: Development of the banana industry will makea major contribution to agricultural exportearnings.



Local Costs 1,035 1,071 2,106 20Foreign Costs - 8,424 8,424 80Total Costs - Amount 1,035 9,495 10,530

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 100 150 200 220 250 1,035 115External Sources 900 1,350 1,800 2,160 2,250 9,495 1,035Total 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,380 2,500 10,530 1,150

- 86 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Phase I (development of Big Creek area) isalready underway with a loan approved by CDB. Requests have beensubmitted to CDC and EDF for additional funding, and an additionalloan request is to be submitted to CDB to finance housing component.Interest has also been expressed by a private group for the restruc-turing of the whole banana industry but a firm decision has not yetbeen made.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The donors are expected to providethe necessary T.A.

- 87 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Livestock Development






A. Description: The project involves the establishment ofa public corporation to increase the sizeof the national herd from about 50,000 to100,000 head. A five year breeding programis to be set up with breeding herds of6-7000 head on 20-30,000 acres.

B. Justification: Strong potential exists for development of alivestock industry both for import substitutionof meat protein and for export of meat andlive animals to the regional market.




-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 50 150 250 300 325 1,250 175External Sources 450 1,350 2.250 2,700 2,925 11,250 1,575Total 500 1,500 2,500 3,000 3,250 12,500 1,750

- 88 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Pastureland is already available for 1,000breeding cattle, but remaining pasture required must be cleared.Feasibility study has yet to be undertaken.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. required for management ofthe corporation to be established.

- 89 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize Marketing Board Follow Up

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Belize Marketing Board





A. Description: The project will privide technical assistanceand other imputs necessary to improve theefficiency of the BMB's operations in-foreignmarkets.

B. Justification: More efficient operation of the BMB is requiredto promote growth and development of theagricultural sector.



Local Costs Foreign Costs 65 504 569 100Total Costs - Amount 65 504 569

- 11 89 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 13 26 26 - - 65 -External Sources 75 149 280 - - 504 -

Total 88 175 306 - - 569 -

- 90 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A study to plan more effective operation ofthe BMB is underway with CIDA financing. CIDA has expressed interestin financing implementation of the study's recommendations.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The project will include technicalassistance to the BMB.

- 91 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Further Agricultural Credits






A. Description: A continuation of Farm Improvement Credits,Agricultural Production Credits, Agricultural-Industrial Credits, small farmer credits,DFC crop loans, etc.

B. Justification: A steady line of credit is required to promotedevelopment of agriculture.



Local Costs 325 2,925 3,250 100Foreign Costs - - - -Total Costs - Amount 325 2,925 3,250

- % 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 50 125 150 325 -External Sources 450 1.125 1,350 2,925 -

Total - - 500 1,250 1,500 3,250 -

- 92 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Continuation of ongoing credit schemes.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Usual CDB terms




- 93 -

BELIZE


Industry(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Paper Converting






A. Description: The project consists of a study to determinethe feasibility of establishing a paper mill.

B. Justification: Paper production represents a potential areaof agro-processing, with the objective ofexporting the finished product.




-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 8 7 - - - 15 -External Sources 80 80 - - - 160 -Total 88 67 - - - 175 -

- 94 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A study on forestry was completed in 1978,

establishing the data base for the paper mill study. CDB has beenapproached for funding.



XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance is requiredto carry out the study.

- 95 -

BELIZE

1979/83 ProJect List - Individual Proiect Description

Industry(US$ 000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Forestry Development






A. Description: The project includes a feasibility study andeventual execution of project involving estab-lishment of a large export-oriented loggingand sawmill operation on the Day Mountain andColumbia River Forest Reserves. The feasibilitystudy should concentrate on extraction and saw-ing methods, export market potential, and trans-portation to markets.

B. Justification: Belize has significant potential for develop-ment of an export oriented forest enterprise,including eventually paper and pulp, veneer,and plywood.



Local Costs 300 300 600 20Foreign Costs - 2.400 2,400 80Total Costs - Amount 300 2,700 3,000

- % 10 90 100

- 96 -


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 50 100 125 300 25External Sources - - 450 900 1,125 2.700 225Total - - 500 1,000 1,250 3,000 250

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Preliminary studies completed by FAO in 1978.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during 1979-83 (project underpreparation and implementation)

Debt Obligations: Not determined

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance will be requiredat all stages of the project.

- 97 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Prolect List - Individual Project Description

Industry(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Industry Credits






A. Description: Includes a continuation of Small IndustryCredits, Agricultural and Industrial Credits,etc.

B. Justification: A steady line of credit is required to supportsmall-scale private industry.



Local Costs 167 1,510 1,677 100Foreign Costs - - - -Total Costs - Amount 167 1,510 1,677

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 40 61 66 167 -

External Sources 360 551 599 1,510Total - - 400 612 665 1,677

- 98 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Small Industry Credit #5 is presently underconsideration by CDB.





- 99 -

BELIZE


Industry(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Industrial Estates






A. Description: Continuation of program of construction ofindustrial estates.

B. Justification: To provide factory shells to promote privatesector industrial enterprise.




-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources - - - 245 265 510Total - - - 245 265 510

- 100 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CDB is likely to be approached.




- 101 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Project List - Individual Proiect Description

Tourism(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Reconstruction Mayan Site

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY:





A. Description: The project continues ongoing reconstructionwork on Mayan sites, mainly by consolidatingwork on the Cerros site in Corozal Districtwhere excavation is now underway.

B. Justification: To improve the potential for attracting touriststo Belize.




-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 24 25 - _ - 49Total 24 25 - - - 49

- 102 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Funding request has been submitted to the UK.

X. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1981 1982 1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 2 3 4

Debt Obligations: none

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The UK is expected to providethe necessary T.A.

- 103 -

BELIZE


Tourism(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belmopan Hotel

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: RECONDEV





A. Description: Construction of 20-30 room convention hotel inBelmopan; technical assistance has been included.

B. Justification: There is presently no hotel in Belmopan, thecapital city, requiring official visitors tostay in Belize City, some 50 miles away.



Local Costs 100 48 148 25Foreign Costs - 443 443 75

Total Costs - Amount 100 491 591-% 17 83 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 40 60 - - - 100 -

External Sources 363 128 - 491 -

Total 403 188 - - - 591 -

- 104 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Preliminary drawings have been completed andCDB has been approached for funding.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: To be determined

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is required to assess thetype of hotel required and to determine management arrangements.

- 105 -

BELIZE


Tourism(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Tourism Credits






A. Description: Continuation of funding of private sectortourism enterprise through Small IndustryCredit and Agricultural-Industrial Creditschemes.

B. Justification: A line of credit is required to sustain growthin the private tourism sector.



Local Costs 75 673 748 100Foreign Costs - - -Total Costs - Amount 75 673 748

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 20 26 29 75 -

External Sources - - 180 237 256 673 -

Total - - 200 263 285 748 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CDB to be approached.

- 106 -





- 107 -

BELIZE


Transportation(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: San Antonio Road

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Works





A. Description: Rehabilitation of road between Orange Walk Townand San Antonio, used extensively in construc-tion of Northern Highway.

B. Justification: The road leads to the quarry at San Antonioand requires rehabilitation to support heavyuse.



Local Costs 24 24 40Foreign Costs 35 35 60Total Costs - Amount - 59 59

-% -1 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 59 _ - - _ 59Total 59 - - 59

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: UK funds has approved the project in principle.

- 108 -




- 109 _

BELIZE

1979/83 Prolect List - Individual Project Description


I. NAME OF PROJECT: Dump-San Miguel Road






A. Description: Project involves the upgrading of an existingroad leading to a bridge now under construc-tion at San Miguel.

B. Justification: With construction of the San Miguel road, thedump-San Miguel road needs upgrading to supportextra traffic.



Local Costs - 39 39 40Foreign Costs _ 59 59 60Total Costs - Amount - 98 98

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -

External Sources 98 - - - - 98 _

Total 98 - - - - 98

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: UK has been approached.

- 110 -




- 111 -

BELIZE



1. NAME OF PROJECT: Western Highway






A. Description: Project involves the reconstruction of a17-mile stretch of Western Highway betweenCamalote and Esperanza. The surface is to beupgraded to asphalt.

B. Justification: Savings in current maintenance costs areanticipated.




-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983



IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK has been approached.

- 112 -




- 113 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Southern Highway Bridges






A. Description: Construction of bridges on Southern Highway.

B. Justification: Existing bridges are of wooden constructionand subject to flooding.



Local Costs 78 78 40Foreign Costs 118 118 60Total Costs - Amount 196 196

- % 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 78 98 20 - - 196 -

Total 78 98 20 - - 196 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK has been approached to continue fund-ing ongoing bridge replacement/constructionin Southern Highway.

- 114 -

X. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1982 1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 19 20



- 115 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Crane and Other Equipment.






A. Description: Provision of crane, crane drilling attachment,and spare parts intended for use by BridgesSection to assist in erection of bridges.

B. Justification: The Equipment is required to carry out con-struction and replacement of bridges, manyof which are presently in unsatisfactorycondition.


Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount X

Local Costs - - - -Foreign Costs - 289 289 100Total Costs - Amount - 289 289

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 289 _ - - - 289Total 289 - - - - 289


- 116 -


1980 1981 1982 1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 8 9 10 11



- 117 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Hurricane Damage - Navigation Lights






A. Description: Replacement of marine warning lights which weredamaged by recent hurricane.

B. Justification: Maintenance of adequate navigation lights isessential to ensure safety of shipping lanes.




- % - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 125 - - - - 125Total 125 - - - - 125


- 118 -


1980 1981 1982 1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 3 4 5 6



- 119 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Airport VOR/DME

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Energy and Communications





A. Description: The project provides and installs VOR (VHFomni-directional range) and DME (distancemeasuring equipment) at the international air-port.

B. Justification: To improve ground to air communications and toimprove aircraft navigation over Belize.



Local CostsForeign Costs - 293 293 100Total Costs - Amount - 293 293

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 156 137 - - - 293Total 156 137 - - - 293

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project prepared but no donor has been identified.

- 120 -


Operating and Maintenance Costs:Debt Obligations: None


- 121 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Airport Fire Station.




V. LENDING AGENCY: UK.


A. Description: The project involves the construction of a newfire station at Belize International Airport.

B. Justification: A new fire station will enable the fire fight-ing equipment to be better preserved and main-,tained and will provide better facilities fortraining purposes.




- % - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - -External Sources 140 49 - - - 189Total 140 49 - - - 189

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project request has been submitted to the UK.

- 122 -


1981 1982 1983




- 123 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Caye Caulker Airstrip






A. Description: The project consists of construction of anairstrip with 2,250 ft x 125 ft. runway, clear-way and apron on Caye Caulker. The runwayand apron will have a gross surface.

B. Justification: The project will improve access to CayeCaulker, the second largest offshore islandin Belize. The airstrip is expected to assistthe nascent tourism activity on the island andprovide a marketing outlet for the local fish-ing industry.



Local Costs 128 128 100Foreign Costs - - -Total Costs - Amount - 128 128 -

-% 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983



- 124 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been submitted to the UK.


1982 1983




- 125 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize International Airport Apron






A. Description: The project involves expansion of the existingapron for the Belize International Airport,provision of the roadway and a light aircraftstandby area.

B. Justification: The project is required to meet immediatedemand at the current traffic level of theairport.




-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 150 275 150 25 _ 600 -

Total 150 275 150 25 - 600 -

- 126 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been included in EDF 1979-82indicative aid program.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during 1979-83Debt Obligations: None

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: EDF is expected to provide thenecessary TA.

- 127 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize International Airport Terminal




V. LENDING AGENCY: unknown


A. Description: Construction of a new terminal at the BelizeInternatioinal Airport.

B. Justification: Passenger congestion is a frequent occurrencein the present terminal building, which is30 years old.



Local Costs 350 525 875 25Foreign Costs - 2,625 2,625 75Total Costs - Amount TO 3,150 3,500

- % 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 50 60 75 350 165External Sources - - 450 540 675 3,150 1,485Total - - 500 600 750 3,500 1,650

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: An airport study was undertaken by consult-ants in 1973.

- 128 -



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance may be requiredduring preparation.

- 129 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Proiect List - Individual Prolect Description


I. NAME OF PROJECT: Low Level Port Facility

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Belize Port Authority





A. Description: Construction of a shallow water, low levelfacility on the shoreline near the new port,to accommodate both lighters and barges.

B. Justification: Such a facility is necessary to enablelighters and barges to utilize the new port.


Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount Z


-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 20 - - - - 20 -External Sources 195 - - - - 195 -Total 215 - - - - 195 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been identified.

- 130 -




- 131 -

BELIZE


Communications(US$-000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Broadcasting

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Home Affairs and Health



V. LENDING AGENCY: EDF and UK


A. Description: The project is the first phase of developmentof the broadcasting network, involving pur-chase and installation of two 10-kw VHF-FMtransmitters at Lodgville; three 100-watt VHF-FM transmitters; and a 160-meter guyed mast.

B. Justification: Implementation of stage one will ensure almostcomplete radio coverage of Belize, includingremote rural communities for which radio isthe only means of communication.



Local Costs 100 - 100 10

Foreign Costs 10 882 892 90Total Costs - Amount 110 882 992

-% 11 89 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 50 60 - - - 110 -External Sources 385 450 47 - - 882 -

Total 435 510 47 - - 992 -

- 132 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK has been approached to financethe new mast; the remaining external aid requirement has beenrequested from EDF and is in EDF indicative aid programs for 1979-82.


1982 1983




- 133 -

BELIZE


Communications(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Telephone Expansion

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Belize Telephone Authority



V. LENDING AGENCY: Suppliers' Credits, UK


A. Description: The expansion program is designed to addressthe inadequacies of the present telephone sys-tem, by (1) expansion of switching capabilityby doubling the number of lines to 8,100;(2) increase in the number of trunk circuitsto satisfy projected demand over the next10-15 years, (3) installation of four newexchanges.

B. Justification: The present telephone network suffers fromsevere congestion on trunk routes and frominadequate switching and cable plant capa-cities. Expansion will provide infrastruc-tural support to future housing and indus-trial development programs.




- % 10 90 100

- 134 -


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 135 140 20 25 30 385 35External Sources 1,200 1,305 189 236 250 3,500 320Total 1,335 1,445 209 261 280 3,885 355

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Preliminary design specifications and costinghave been undertaken. Plessey is expected to provide suppliers'credits and the UK has been approached for the balance of externalfinancing.



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. will be required to undertakefeasibility study and to assist in project implementation.

- 135 -

BELIZE


Power(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Electricity Expansion

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Belize Electricity Board





A. Description: Project involves installation of additionalgenerating units with switchgear and reinforce-ment of existing 6.6 KV system for Ladyville-Belize City connection; a power station forCorozal; and electricity supply to ruralvillages.

B. Justification: To provide a more reliable electricity supplyand to expand service to rural areas presentlynot covered by the electricity network.




-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 250 400 350 1,000 -External Sources - - 2,250 3,600 3,150 9,000 -Total - - 2,500 4,000 3,500 10,000 -

- 136 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility has been undertaken. CDBhas been approached for funding. An adjustment of electricity ratesis necessary before the BEB will be creditworthy for externalfinancing of the expansion program.



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: CDB is expected to provide thenecessary TA.

- 137 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Health Centers






A. Description: Construction of two two-story concrete blockhealth centers, with clinic facilities onlower floor and nurse's quarters above; centersare to be located at Independence and Hopkins.

B. Justification: These communities presently have no healthcenter.




-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 30 49 - - - 79 -Total 30 49 - - - 79 -

- 138 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project has been submitted to the UK,construction is expected to commence when the health center at SanPedro, currently underway with UK aid, is completed. Standardarchitectural drawings are available.





- 139 -

BELIZE

1979/83 ProJect List - Individual Project Description

Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Mental Health Facility


III. TOTAL ESTIMATED. COST: 98




A. Description: The project provides houses for staff aswell as equipment for the new mental healthfacility.

B. Justification: The project would enable the newly renovatedmental health center to become operational.



Local Costs 10 14 24 25Foreign Costs 74 74 75Total Costs - Amount 10 88 98

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 7 3 - - - 10 -External Sources 63 25 - - - 88 -Total 70 28 - - - 98 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been submitted to the UK.

- 140 -


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None--building replaces existingfacility.



- 141 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Orange Walk Hospital






A. Description: Continuation of ongoing construction programfor Orange Walk Hospital.

B. Justification: Completion of the new Orange Walk Hospitalis necessary to furnish a regional hospitalfor the Orange Walk/Corozal DIstrict.



Local Costs 7 7 25Foreign Costs 23 23 75Total Costs - Amount - 30 30

-% 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 15 15 - - - 30 -Total 15 15 - - - 30 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Supplementary funding has been requestedfrom the UK.

- 142 -


1981 1982 1983




- 143 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Hospital Equipment






A. Description: Provision of lab and x-ray equipment for thehospitals in Belmopan, Orange Walk, Toledo.

B. Justification: The above equipment is necessary to make thosehospitals fully functional as regional hospitals.



Local Costs - - -Foreign Costs 157 157 100Total Costs - Amount 157 157

- % 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources - - 75 82 - 157 -

Total - - 75 82 - 157 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Equipment needs have been identified.

- 144 -

X. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 5



- 145 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Public Health Vehicles

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Health and Home Affairs





A. Description: Project will provide six Land Rovers/pickupsfor public health staff/inspectors; six jeepsfor the malaria eradication program; and onedental van.

B. Justification: Lack of adequate transport has seriouslyhampered the effectiveness of the public healthservices.



Local CostsForeign Costs _ 171 171 100Total Costs - Amount - 171 171

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 81 90 - - _ 171Total 81 90 - - - 171

- 146 -



Operating and Maintenance Costs: 8 9 10Debt Obligations: not determined

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: none

- 147 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Renovation Health Centers






A. Description: Project involvesrenovation and/or extensionof eight rural health centers.

B. Justification: To provide better health service to ruralvillages.




- % 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 3 4 6 - - 13 -

External Sources 30 40 42 - - 112 -

Total 33 44 48 - - 125 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Sites have been identified.

- 148 -


Operating and Maintenance Costs: 5 6Debt Obligations: not determined.


- 149 -

BELIZE


lealth(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: New Health Center






A. Description: Project involves the construction of fouradditional health centers in the NorthernDistrict.

B. Justification: To provide adequate health infrastructure inareas of population growth.




- % 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 3 3 5 6 17 -External Sources - 22 26 43 48 139 -Total - 25 29 48 54 156 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Sites have been identified.

- 150 -


Operating and Maintenance Costs: none during 1979-83 - projectunder preparation and imple-mentation.

Debt Obligations: not determined.


- 151 -

BELIZE


Health(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize City Hospital

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY:



V. LENDING AGENCY: EDF, UK, Unknown


A. Description: The project involves construction and equip-ping of a new general hospital in Belize City,with approximately the same bed capacity asthe existing facility. A full range of spe-cialist services, casualty and outpatientfacilities are to be provided.

B. Justification: The present hospital is located only a fewfeet from the shore at sea level, leading tofrequent flooding and storm damage; in addi-tion, the unsound structural condition ofthe building makes it unsuitable for renovationor expansion, requiring construction of a newfacility to provide the necessary minimallevel of hospital services for the Belizedistrict.



Local Costs 1,286 2,300 3,586 25Foreign Costs - 10,757 10,757 75

Total Costs - Amount 1,286 13,057 14,343- % 9 91 100

- 152 -


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 117 189 238 245 1,286 647External Sources - 1,053 1,701 2,142 2,195 13,057 5,966Total - 1,170 1,890 2,380 2,440 14,343 6,463

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study has been completed.The UK has been approached for possible funding of the design studyand EDF is to be approached for financing of part of the construc-tion and equipment. Further finance will be required.



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. will be required at all stages.

- 153 -

BELIZE


Water and Sewerage(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize City Water and Sewerage Phase II

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Water and Sewerage Authority

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: (Phase II) 7,000




A. Description: This project provides for completion of theongoing water and sewage system project,which includes construction of a treatmentplant, a 14 foot transmission main, andwater distribution network; the seweragecomponent provides gravity sewers and pump-ing of raw sewage by water-borne collectionmains to an organic treatment facility.

B. Justification: Expansion of the water supply system inBelize City and installation of a seweragesystem are essential to provide a minimumacceptable standard of service and ofenvironmental health.



Local Costs 700 2,100 2,800 40Foreign Costs - 4,200 4.200 60Total Costs - Amount 700 6,300 7,000

- % 10 90 100

- 154 -


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 100 150 200 250 700 -External Sources - 900 1,350 1,800 2,250 6,300Total - 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 7,000 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CIDA has provided grant funds for the ongoingconstruction work, which has encountered severe cost overruns.Additional financing will be sought from CIDA to mmet these addi-tional costs and to bring the project to completion (Phase II).


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None before 1984Debt Obligations: None

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Continuation of the T.A. acquiredfor implementation of Phase I will be needed.

- 155 -

BELIZE


Water and Sewerage(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Water Supply Corozal Village






A. Description: Project provides probable water supply anddistribution for rural villages in CorozalDistrict.

B. Justification: These villages presently lack a safe andreliable supply of water.

ViI. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:



-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983



- 156 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: UK to be approached.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: noneDebt Obligations: none


- 157 -

BELIZE


Water and Sewerage

(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Water Supply




V. LENDING AGENCY: UK, CIDA


A. Description: Project provides small scale water intake,storage and distribution system for ruraltowns.

B. Justification: To provide a safe and reliable supply toareas presently not served.


Financed by TotalLocal External

Sources Sources Amount %


-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources - 150 150 90 - 390Total - 150 150 90 - 390

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CIDA provided an initial grant to startup the program; the UK may be approachedfor additional grant if CIDA does not renewfunding.

- 158 -


Operating and Maintenance Costs: noneDebt Obligations: none


- 159 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Junior Secondary Schools

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education and Housing





A. Description: The project involves the Construction of threenew junior secondary schools in rural areas;provision of furniture, equipment and residencefor the principal.

B. Justification: Additional capacity is preceded at the juniorsecondary levels, particularly in rural areaswhich are relatively underserved by secondaryschools.



Local Costs - 550 550 40Foreign Costs - 825 825 60Total Costs - Amount - 1,375 1,375

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 50 575 600 150 - 1,375 -Total 50 575 600 150 - 1,375 -

- 160 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The EDF has been approached.

X. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 200Debt Obligations: none


- 161 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize Junior Secondary Expansion






A. Description: Project involves construction of additionalclassroom block at Belize Junior SecondarySchool #1.

B. Justification: Present facility is becoming overcrowded.





-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources - 150 45 - - 195Total - 150 45 - - 195

-162-

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project request has been submitted to theUK, which financed construction of theschool.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: marginal costs will be negligibleas little increase in enroll-ment is anticipated.

Debt Obligations: not determined.


- 163 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Vocational Training Center

11. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education and Housing





A. Description: Project involves construction of a new build-ing and provision of equipment needed to doubleenrollments of school leavers and young adultsin vocational training.

B. Justification: To increase the supply of semi-skilled man-power and upgrade workers.




-% 3 97 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - -3 3 - - 6 -External Sources 100 69 27 - - 196 -Total 100 72 30 - - 202 -

- 164 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Basic Study of need for expanded vocationaltraining program has been completed. TheUK has been approached for funding.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: 14 15Debt Obligations: none

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance is requiredto train instructors and surveymanpower demand (see TechnicalAssistance profiles).

- 165 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Public Sector Training Center






A. Description: Project involves construction of a trainingcenter in Belmapon, consisting of classroomsand seminar rooms, for courses for publicsector employees.

B. Justification: To permit upgrading of the public servicethrough in-service training.




-% - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources - 75 22 - - 97Total - 75 22 - - 97

- 166 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: UK is to be approached for funding.





-167 -

BELIZE


Education(US '00O)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Primary School Teachers' Houses






A. Description: The project aims to provide housing forprimary school teachers on sites nearthe schools, mainly in rural areas.

B. Justification: Lock of adequate housing is a factordeterring trained teachers from acceptingplacements in rural schools.



Local Costs 35 102 137 40Foreign Costs - 205 205 60Total Costs - Amount 35 307 342 -

- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 10 15 10 - - 35 -


- 168 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project study has beenprepared and sites identified.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: noneDebt Obligations: not determined


- 169 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Primary School Textbook Production






A. Description: The project comprises a feasibility studyand pilot production of textbooks, to bewritten in Belize, for the teaching ofEnglish as second language and other subjects.

B. Justification: Local production of textbooks, if proveneconomical, would assist in the implementa-tion of a locally-oriented curriculum.




- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 10 10 - 20 -

External Sources 30 64 58 25 - 177Total 30 64 68 35 - 197

- 170 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project study has been prepared.



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. will be required forimplementation.

- 171 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Expansion REAP Program






A. Description: The project will expand the ongoing RuralEducation and Agriculture Program to nineadditional primary schools; constructionof a storage building for agriculturaltools and provision of simple equipmentare included.

B. Justification: To instill an agricultural orientation tothe primary school corriculum.




- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 5 5 - - 10 -External Sources 27 54 27 - - 108 -Total 27 59 32 - - 118 -

- 172 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Continuation of an ongoingprogram.


1982 1983Operating and Maintenance Costs: 5 6

Debt Obligations: not determined


- 173 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: BELCAST




V. LENDING AGENCY: UK, Unknown


A. Description: The project will establish the Belize Collegeof Arts, Sciences, and Technology, by con-solidating the existing facilities fortertiary education; construction of additionalclassrooms and laboratories, furniture andequipment and fellowships for instructors'training are included.

B. Justification: The project will permit a larger output ofhigher level manpower, including teachers,which are currently in short supply in Belize.



Local Costs 350 521 871 25Foreign Costs - 2,611 2,611 75Total Costs - Amount 350 3,132 3,482 -

-% 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 80 77 83 110 350 -External Sources - 751 695 749 937 3,132 -

Total - 831 772 832 1,047 3,482 -

- 174 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project study has been prepared. UK to beapproached to finance part of the project.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None before 1984 (projectunder preparation andimplementation)


XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None--additional instructors requiredwill be trained abroad.

- 175 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Fellowships and Loans

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education and Housing;Development Finance Corporation



V. LENDING AGENCY: UK, CIDA, CDB


A. Description: Funds are required to continue ongoingfellowship and loan programs.

B. Justification: To enable Belizeans to receive diploma-and degree-level training abroad.



Local Costs -Foreign Costs - -__

Total Costs - Amount - 1,000 1,000 -

-% - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources - 200 250 250 300 1.000-Total - 200 250 250 300 1,000 -

- 176 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK, CIDA, and CDB are to beapproached for funds to continueongoing programs.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: noneDebt Obligations: not determined


- 177 -

BELIZE


Education(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: National Vocational Training






A. Description: The project provides technical assistance toimplement the National Vocational Program;training of vocational instructors; andequipment, tools and books to be used invocational training.

B. Justification: To promote improved and expanded vocationaltraining in Belize.



Local Costs - -Foreign Costs 34 316 350 100Total Costs - Amount 34 316 350 -

- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 5 7 10 12 34 -

External Sources - 45 68 90 113 316Total - 50 75 100 125 350

- 178 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A CIDA-UNDP team of consultantshas been sent to Belize to identifythe needs for technical assistance,instructor training, and equipmentto implement the National VocationalProgram.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: none


XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is included inproject.

- 179 _

BELIZE


Housing(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Housing Sites and Services






A. Description: The Project furnishes sites and infra-structure for about 400 low income housesin Belize City. Components of the projectinclude site clearance, raising and level-ling, provision of roads, water pipes,septic tanks. The houses are to be completedwith aided self-help.

B. Justification: The project will help meet the large demandfor new and replacement housing for lowincome households.




- % - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources - 200 300 100 - 600 -Total - 200 300 100 - 600 -

- 180 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Funding of this project has been included in

the EDF indicative program for 1979-83.



XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is needed for project preparation.

- 181 -

BELIZE


HousinR(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Secondary Mortgage Fund






A. Description: Additional loan funds are requested fromCDB to meet mortgage commitments alreadymade by the DFC for the Belmopan Villashousing development.



Local Costs 100 1,140 1,240 100Foreign Costs _ - - -Total Costs - Amount 100 1,140 1,240 -

-% 8 92 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 50 50 - - 100 -

External Sources 380 380 380 - 1,140Total 380 430 430 - - 1,240

- 182 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CDB to be approached forcontinuation of ongoingcredit scheme.






- 183 -

BELIZE


Housing(US$O000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Housing Loans






A. Description: Loans are to be provided to rural house-holders for rehabilitation and renovationof on-farm housing.



Local Costs - 550 550 100Foreign Costs - - .Total Costs - Amount - 550 550

-% - 100 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources 50 50 50 200 200 550 -

Total 50 50 50 200 200 550 -

-184 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project has beenidentified.





- 185 -

BELIZE


Housing(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Low Income Housing






A. Description: Project will provide shell housing, slimupgrading, home rehabilitation, and someinfrastructure development for low incomehousing. Much of the physical constructionwill be undertaken by aided self help andwith prefabricated materials.

B. Justification: To address the needs for low cost housingimprovements for low income families.(annual income below US$1,250).



Local Costs 350 525 875 25Foreign Costs - 2,625 2,625 75Total Costs - Amount 350 3,150 3,500 -

-% 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 45 60 60 90 95 350 -External Sources 405 540 540 810 855 3,150 -Total 450 600 600 900 950 3,500

- 186 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Pre-identification



Debt Obligations: to be determined

XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is required toassist in projectpreparation.

-187 -

BELIZE


Housing(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Lower Middle Income Housing






A. Description: Project will provide shell housing, haverehabilitation, and site and services forlower middle income households. Much ofthe physical construction will be undertakenusing aided self-help and pre-fabricatedmaterials.

B. Justification: To address the needs for new and rehabilita-ted. housing for families on the "lowermiddle" income bracket (US$1,250-2,700 peryear).




-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 40 38 50 100 25 253 -External Sources 360 337 450 900 225 2,272 -Total 400 375 500 1,000 250 2,525 -

- 188 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Pre-identificationhas been completeed.




XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is required forproject prepartion.

- 189 -

BELIZE


Housing(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Middle Income Housing






A. Description: The project involves house construction,provision of infrastructure, and somehome rehabilitation for middle incomefamilies (annual income US$2,700-7,500).Prefabricated construction materials willbe utilized.

B. Justification: To address the housing needs of familiesin the middle income range who cannot beaccommodated by the private sector.




- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 25 30 35 60 15 165 -External Sources 225 270 315 540 135 1,485 -

Total 250 300 350 600 150 1,650 -

- 190 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Pre-identificationhas been completed.




XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: T.A. is required forproject preparation

- 191 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Proiect List - Individual Prolect Description

Housing(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Urban Mortgage Loans






A. Justification: The project will assist families at variousincome levels to upgrade existing housingusing self help labor and private sectorcontractors.




Local Costs 100 875 975 100Foreign Costs _ - - -Total Costs - Amount 100 875 975 -

- % 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 25 15 15 20 25 100 -External Sources 225 135 135 155 225 875Total 250 150 150 175 250 975

- 192 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Pre-identificationhas been completed.




XI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: none

193 -

BELIZE


Miscellaneous(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Museum/Archives

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Educationand Housing




VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project involves constructionof a building in Belmopan to housethe national museum and the nation-al museum and the national archives.Storage and display areas, officesand workroom would be included.




-% - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - - - - -External Sources 98 100 100 - - 298 -

Total 98 100 100 - - 298 -

194 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The UK has been approached.





- 195 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Fire Station, Belize City





VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project will construct a newheadquarters for the fire brigadeon the outskirts of Belize City.




- % - 100 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983


External Sources - 100 100 44 - 244Total - 100 100 44 - 244

- 196 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: UK to be approached





- 197 -

BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Belize Youth Development Center

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Social Services,Labor and Local Government




VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project involves completingthe renovation and outfittingof infrastructure for a trainingcenter for school dropouts. Thecenter teaches vocational skillsto give these youths aged 16-21 analternative to vagrancy and pos--sible delinquency.



Local Costs 6 - 6 20Foreign Costs 2 20 22 80Total Costs - Amount 8 20 28 -

- % 30 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 4 4 - - - 8 -


- 198 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project is ongoing and hasalready received small grantsfrom CIDA and private internat-ional agencies for equipmentpurchases.


1981 1982 1983Operating and Maintenance Costs: 35 40 45



- 199 -

BELIZE


Miscellaneous(US$, 000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: 4 - H Center





VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project will completeconstruction and outfittingof a dormitory at the Center,where 4-H Club leaders areTrained in livestock rearing,gardening, bee-keeping, etc.



Local Costs 7 - 7 25Foreign Costs 8 14 22 75Total Costs - Amount 13 14 29 -

- % 52 48 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 15 - - - 15 -

External Sources 14 - - - - 14Total 14 15 -29

- 200 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project is ongoing and hasreceived small grants from CIDAand private international agenciesto date.





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BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Home for Girls





VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project involves constructionof a home for girls who havebehavioral problems.



Local Costs 7 8 15 25Foreign Costs _ 46 46 75Total Costs - Amount 7 54 61

-% 10 90 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 2 4 1 - - 7 -External Sources 11 31 12 - - 54 -Total 13 35 13 - - 61 -

- 202 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project has been identified anda site has been acquired. CIDA hasexpressed interest in funding theproject.





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BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Listowel Boys' Training Center

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Social Services,Labor and Government




VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The project would renovate andexpand the buildings at the Train-ing center to provide additionalspace for classrooms, sleepingquarters, library, and recreationrooms. The center, located nearSan Ignacio, cares for boys com-mited by the juvenile court.




-% 8 92 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 5 5 - 10 -External Sources - - 58 63 - 121Total - - 63 68 - 131

- 204 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project at concept stage.


Operating and Maintenance Costs: none during 1979-83



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BELIZE



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Administration Building, Belize City

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Finance




VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: The building to be constructedwould house the Post Office andTax Collection Bureau



Local Costs 75 112 187 25Foreign Costs _ 563 563 75Total Costs - Amount 75 675 750 -

-% 10 90 - 100


1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - 25 50 75 -External Sources _ _ _ 225 450 675Total - - - 250 500 750

- 206 -



Operating and Maintenance Costs: none during 1979-83



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BELIZE

Technical Assistance Requirements

The following projects require technical assistance for preparationof project documents and/or feasibility studies and to our knowledge at presentno source has been identified:

Cassava Development*Deep Sea Fishing*Forestry Development*Belize International Airport Terminals

The following nonproject-specific technical assistance schemesare also required:

Forestry Development*Tourism Development/Marketing PlanManpower StudyHousing Program (T.A. will also prepare the proposed projects)Ministry of Agriculture*

* Indicates the highest priorities for immediate technical assistance.

_ 208 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Forestry Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: unknown

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade and Industry,Cooperatives and Consumer Protection

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES: Technical assistance is required forinstitutional support of ForestryDepartment

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: Two forestry specialistsrequired for attachment toForestry Department.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 285

- 209 -

BELIZE


I. SECTOR: Tourism

II. PROJECT TITLE: Tourism Development/Marketing Plan


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY:

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES: Technical assistance is requestedto draw up tourism development andmarketing plan within a 5-10 yearplanning framework.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: 12 man months of technicalassistance by a tourism plan-ner and economist.


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BELIZE


I. SECTOR: Education

II. PROJECT TITLE: Manpower Study


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education and Housing

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES: Technical assistance is required tosurvey the present and potentialrequirements for manpower of variouslevels and qualifications for theBelize economy. The study shouldrecommend what types of training andthe approximate numbers of trainedpersons should be developed.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: A manpower economist andvocational training specialistare required for about six manmonths.


- 211 -

BELIZE

1979/83 Proiect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Housing

II. PROJECT TITLE: Housing Program


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: RECONDEV; Ministry of Education andHousing

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES: Technical assistance is required to:a) do a feasibility study on the useof palmetto palm fibres in reinforcedconcrete and particle board forinterior partitions; also to conductconstruction trials using thesematerials: b) to assist RECONDEV andthe Ministry of Housing in preparingthe proposed projects and implementingnew housing policies.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: a) one man yearb) five man years by a quantity

surveyor and city planner.


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BELIZE


I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Institution Development, Agriculture


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture, DFC

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES: Technical assistance is required tosupport the Ministry of Agricultureand DFC in the areas of extensiontraining, supervision of agriculturalcredit, etc.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: Experts in agricultural extensionand in agricultural credit, amongothers, for 1-2 year attachmentsto the above institutions.


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BELIZE

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table Number

I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

1.1 Population Trends, 1970-77

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at Current FactorCost, 1972-78

2.2 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at 1977 ConstantFactor Cost, 1972-78

2.3 Implicit Deflators2.4 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, 1972-78Z.5 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources, 1977-83

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1972-783.2 Merchandise Imports by End Use Category, 1972-773.3 Merchandise Exports by Major Commodities, 1972-773.4 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments, 1977-83

IV. EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

4.1 Summary of External Public Debt Operations, 1972-77

V. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

5.1 Central Government Current Expenditures, 1972-785.2 Central Government Current Revenue, 1972-785.3 Central Government Operations, 1972-785.4 Financing of Public Sector Investment, 1972-785.5 Actual and Projected Central Government Finances, 1977-835.6 Actual and Projected Financing of Public Sector Investment,

1977-835.7 Public Sector Investment Program, 1979-83

VI. MONEY AND BANKING

6.1 Consolidated Accounts of the Financial System, 1972-786.2 Credit to the Private Sector, 1973-78

VII. AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND TOURISM

7.1 Agricultural Production, 1972-787.2 Industrial Productions, 1973-777.3 Tourist Statistics, 1971-77

-214 -

BELIZE

Table 1.1 : POPULATION TRENDS, 1970-77

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977*

Total end-of-year population 120,940 125,882 128,391 128,205 128,328 128,897 127,407 132,270

Crude Birth Rate of mid-yearestimated population(per 000) 37.13 40.94 38.63 39.05 39.29 40.31 41.67 42.78

Crude Death Rate of mid-yearestimated population(per 000) 6.78 5.06 5.21 6.04 5.75 5.70 6.87 6.08

Rate of Naturai Inc ease ofmid-year estimated popu-lation (per 000) 30.25 35.88 33.42 33.01 33.54 34.81 34.80 36.70

Total Births 4,455 5,052 4,912 5,010 5,039 5,201 5,340 5,555

Total Deaths 813 625 662 774 728 733 881 790

Natural Population Increase 3,642 4,427 4,250 4,236 4,311 4,468 4,459 4,765

Net Migration -1,707 515 -1,741 -4,422 -4,188 -3,899 -5,949 98

Net Population Increase 1,935 4,942 2,509 -186 123 569 -1,490 4,863

Source: Central Planning Unit, Ministry of Finance

* Provisional

Table 2.1 BELIZE - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTAT CURRENT FACTOR COST, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Est.

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 22.6 39.6 50.6 37.3 41.6 40.6Agriculture 18.3 34.1 44.0 30.6 34.8 32.7Forestry 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.9Fishing 2.5 3.0 4.5 4.7 5.1 6.0

Mining & Quarrying 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8

Manufacturing 11.3 20.1 24.0 19.8 26.1 29.0

Electricity & Water 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.7

Construction 5.3 8.9 11.4 13.0 12.6 17.2

Services 61.0 70.9 82.6 91.8 97.4 107.3Transportation, Storage & Communication 7.2 9.4 10.7 13.0 14.4 14.7Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 18.3 23.4 28.1 29.9 33.1 40.1Finance and Insurance 7.7 7.7 7.4 8.2 8.0 8.0Real Estate 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1Public Administration 9.9 11.1 15.0 18.7 19.6 22.0Other Services 10.3 11.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5

Gross Domestic Product at Current Factor Cost 84.3 101.5 141.3 170.5 163.4 179.8 196.6

Sources: Statistical Bureau; mission estimates.

Table 2.2; BELIZE - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ATCONSTANT FACTOR COST (1977 PRICES), 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 34.7 36.5 39.6 41.0 37.0 41.6 39.0Agriculture 27.6 29.8 30.9 33.5 29.5 34.8 31.8Forestry 2.4 3.0 4.4 3.0 2.9 1.7 1.9Fishing 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3

Mining and Quarrying 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8

Manufacturing 17.0 19.2 22.3 22.8 22.1 26.1 29.2

Electricity and Water 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.7

Construction 8.1 7.4 8.8 10.6 14.1 12.6 16.2

Services 80.6 84.2 89.8 92.9 99.6 97.4 103.8Transport, Storage andCommunication 9.9 10.4 11.8 12.9 14.8 14.4 13.3

Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 25.3 26.4 29.6 29.3 31.5 33.1 38.8Finance and Insurance 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.7 8.6 8.0 7.7Real Estate 8.1 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.1 8.9Public Administration 16.2 18.2 19.2 20.7 21.5 19.6 22.0Other Services 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.2 13.6 13.2 13.1

Gross Domestic Product at ConstantFactor Cost 142.2 149.1 162.3 169.4 174.5 179.8 190.6

Source: Statistical Bureau; mission estimates

Table 2.3: BELIZE - GDP DEFLATORS, 1972-78

(1977=100)

Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Agriculture, Forestry andFishing .. 65.2 100.0 123.4 101.0 100.0 104.2-

Manufacturing .. 58.8 90.3 105.2 89.4 100.0 99.3

Services .. 72.5 79.0 88.8 92.2 100.0 103.5

GDP at Factor Cost .. 68.1 87.0 100.6 93.6 100.0 103.1

Table 2.4 BELIZE - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Est.1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Total Consumption 89.2 94.0 133.2 159.0 170.5 183.8 196.9Public 14.8 16.7 20.2 24.5 30.1 33.6 lin.7Private a/ 74.4 77.3 113.0 134.5 140.4 150.2 156.2

Gross Domestic Investment 28.9 32.7 42.8 61.0 69.2 62.9 90.0Fixed Capital Formation 24.9 27.0 38.6 53.0 58.0 61.9 90.0

(Public) (8.0) (9.5) (15.2) (16.9) (19.0) (24.6) (438)(Private) (16.9) (17.5) (23.4) (36.1) (39.0) (37.3) (46.2)

Change in Inventories 4.0 5.7 4.2 8.0 11.2 1.0 -

Goods & Nonfactor Services Balance -23.1 -11.9 -17.4 -26.9 -54.3 -42.0 -60.3Exports of Goods & NFS 48.2 62.6 95.0 136.0 112.2 144.7 179.7Imports of Goods & NFS 71.3 74.5 112.4 162.9 166.5 186.7 240.0

Gross Domestic Product at Current 226.6Market Prices 95.0 114.8 158.6 193.1 185.4 204.7 226.minus: indirect taxes (net) 10.7 13.3 17.3 22.6 22.0 24.9

Gross Domestic Product at CurrentFactor Cost 84.3 101.5 141.3 170.5 163.4 179.8 196.6

Net Factor Income Payments Abroad -2.3 -3.8 -13.5 -16.7 -4.5 -7.5 -10.0

Gross National Product at CurrentFactor Cost 82.0 97.7 127.8 153.8 158.9 172.3 186.6

Sources: Statistical Bureau; mission estimates.

- 219 -

Table 2.5: BELIZE - AGTUAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES, 1977-83

Actual Estimated Proiected1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

(BZ$ million 1977 prices)

Gross Domestic Product 204.7 218.4 228.0 241.5 253.4 265.6 276.8

Imports (including NFS) 186.7 225.2 244.4 229.3 235.2 241.7 250.2Exports (including NFS) 144.7 173.7 158.3 170.2 181.0 189.4 199.1

Consumption 183.8 187.6 210.1 201.3 210.8 218.1 224.9(Public) (33.6) (37.7) (39.0) (40.4) (41.8) (43.3) ('4.7)(Private) (150.2) (150.9) (171.1) (160.9) (169.0) (174.8) (180.2)

Investment 62.9 81.3 104.0 99.3 96.8 99.8 103.0(Public) (24.6) (39.6) (56.5) (49.5) (44.2) (44.5) (45.5)(Private) (37.3) (41.7) (41.5) (49.8) (52.6) (55.3) (57.5)

Gross National Savings 19.3 24.4 13.4 36.6 41.9 49.7 50.5(Public) (1.8) (3.2) (6.1) (11.8) (13.8) (15.7) (15.7)(Private) (17.5) (21.2) (7.3) (24.8) (28.1) (34.0) (34.8)

Memorandum Item:

Investment Financing 62.9 83.3 104.0 99.3 96.8 99.8 lC3.0(National Savings) (19-3) (24.4) (13.4) (36.6) (41.9) (49.7) (5J.5)(Current Account Balance) (43.6) (58.9) (90.6) (62.7) (54.9) (50.1) (52.5)

(as % of GDP in current prices)

Gross Domestic Product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Resource Gap 20.5 26.6 38.5 23.9 18.7, 15.4 15.4Imports (including NFS) 91.2 105.9 108.1 95.6 92.5 90.3 90.1Exports (including NFS) 70.7 79.3 69.5 71.7 73.8 74.9 74.7

Consumption 89.8 86.9 92.5 82.5 80.7 78.2 78.3(Public) (16.4) (18.0) (17.3) (16.8) (16.5) (16.1) (16.1)(Private) (73.3) (68.9) (75.3) (65.7) (64.2) (62.1) (62.2)

Investment 30.7 39.7 46.0 41.4 38.1 37.2 p7.1(Public) (18.7) (19.3) (z5.0) (20.6) (11.4) (16.6) ().4)

(Private) (12.0) (20.4) (21.0) (20.7) (20.7) (20.6) (20.7)

Gross National Savings 9.4 11.6 5.9 15.3 16.5 18.5 18.2(Public) (0.9) (1.5) (2.7) (4.9) (5.4) (5.9) (5.6)(Private) (8.5) (10.1) (3.2) (10.3) (11.1) (12.7) (12.5)

Memorandum Item:

Investment Financing 30.7 39.7 46.0 41.4 38.1 37.2 37.1(Nationa]. Savings) (9.4) (11.6) (5.9) (15.3) (16.5) (18.5) (18.2)(Current Account Balance) (21.3) (28.1) (40.1) (26.1) (21.6) (18.7) (18.9)

- 220 -

Table 3.1: BELIZE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1972-78

(US$ million)

Prelim.1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Exports of Goods and NFS 30.1 38.4 55.6 75.1 55.3 72.4 89.8Imports of Goods and NFS 44.6 45.7 65.7 90.0 82.0 93.4 120.0

Resource Balance -14.5 -7.3 -10.1 -14.9 -26.7 -21.0 -330.2

Net Factor Service Payments -1.4 -2.3 -7.9 -9.2 -2.2 -3.8 -5.0Transfers (net) 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 3.0 3.4

Current Account Balance -13.6 -7.4 -15.8 -22.2 -26.7 -21.8 -31.8

Private Capital 6.1 8.8 18.2 20.2 12.4 17.7 20.1

Public Capital 5.7 2.4 5.6 7.6 5.6 6.8 17.0Grants (3.8) (2.7) (3.6) (4.3) (4.1) (4.2) (16.1)Loans (2.1) (0.6) (2.0) (1.7) (2.1) (3.6) ( )Amortization (-0.3) (-1.3) (-1.3) (-1.3) (-1.5) (-1.2) (-1.3)Public FinancialInstitutions (net) (0.1) (0.4) (1.3) (2.9) (0.9) (0.2) (2.2)

Rest of Financial System - - - - -

Capital Account Balance 11.8 11.2 23.8 27.8 18.0 24.5 37.1

Change in InternationalReserves (- increase) 1.8 -3.7 -8.0 -5.6 8.7 -2.7 -5.3

Source: IMF, mission estimates

-221 -

Table 3.2: BELIZE - MERCHANDISE IMPORTS BY END-USE CATEGORY, 1972-77

(US$ million)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Food 10.8 11.6 16.5 23.0 19.2 20.1

Beverages and Tobacco 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.9

Crude Materials 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7

Fuels 2.2 3.0 6.7 7.3 9.2 11.7

Oils and Fats 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2

Chemicals 4.3 4.1 6.1 10.4 6.3 6.3

Manufactured Goods 8.4 8.7 11.2 15.8 11.8 14.3

Machinery and Transport 9.8 9.3 11.8 20.8 19.9 22.7

Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods 5.6 5.1 8.0 8.2 10.5 11.9

Miscellaneous 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4

Total Imports, c.i.f. 43.5 44.4 63.8 88.0 79.5 90.1

Domestic Exports 19.4 25.9 36.6 53.0 33.6 44.5

Re-exports 5.7 6.4 8.3 13.5 12.7 17.6

Balance of Trade -18.4 -12.0 -18.9 -21.5 -33.2 -28.0

Source: Statistical Bureau

- 222 -

Table 3.3: BELIZE - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS BY MAJOR C0,24ODITIES, 1972-78

(US$ million)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Current PricesSugar 10.6 12.8 22.1 40.1 16.7 23.9Citrus Products 2.7 2.8 3.7 3.4 2.8 1.6Fish Products 1.7 1.6 1.8 3.0 3.1 3.0Bananas - - - - 0.9 1.5Mahogany 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.6Molasses 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2Garments 2.5 3.9 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.5Other 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.4 2.2 3.2Total Domestic Exports 19.4 25.9 36.6 53.0 33.6 44.5Reexports 5.7 6.4 8.3 13.5 12.7 17.6Total Exports 25.1 32.3 44.9 66.5 46.3 62.1

1977 PricesSugar 20.8 22.9 20.9 23.2 16.3 23.9Citrus Products 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.0 2.6 1.6Fish Products 3.6 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.0Bananas - - - - 1.0 1.5Mahogany 1.6 2.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.6Molasses 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.2Garments 2.6 4.6 5.3 4.2 5.3 9.5Other 0.9 2.9 2.4 0.5 2.5 3.2Total Domestic Exports 32.4 39.2 36.8 35.0 33.2 44.5Reexports 8.8 8.0 9.3 17.1 14.7 17.6Total Exports 41.2 47.2 46.1 52.1 47.9 62.1

Price Index (1977=100)Sugar 50.9 55.7 105.6 172.9 102.5 100.0Citrus Products 141.0 121.7 120.7 168.5 110.1 100.0Fish Products 47.9 57.4 66.9 95.4 83.3 100.0Bananas - - - - 86.7 100.0Mahogany 49.9 59.8 94.7 92.0 90.0 100.0Molasses 52.9 83.4 64.3 110.5 119.8 100.0Garments 93.8 84.9 92.4 97.3 114.3 100.0Other 64.5 80.2 89.1 78.9 86.4 100.0Total Domestic Exports 59M9 66.1 99.5 151.4 101.2 100.0Reexports 64.5 80.2 89.1 78.9 86.4 100.0Total Exports 60.9 68.4 97.4 127.6 96.7 100.0


-223 -

Table 3.4: BELIZE - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1977-83

(US$ million)


Exports of Goods and NFS 72.4 89.8 91.7 108.3 127.6 147.6 164.9

Merchandise Exports 62.1 70.9 79.1 94.3 112.0 130.4 145.7(Sugar) (23.9) (30.2) (34.2) (40.3) (47.8) (57.7) (63.5)(Bananas) (1.5) (1-5) (2.0) (2.7) (3.5) (4.9) (7.2)(Garments) (9.5) (10.1) (11.3) (14.4) (18.3) (19.9) (21.8)(Other) (27.2) (29.1) (31.6) (36.9) (42.4) (47.9) (53.2)

Non Factor Services 10.3 18.9 12.6 14.0 15.6 17.2 19.2

Imports of Goods and NFS 93.4 120.0 142.5 144.5 160.0 178.0 198.8

Merchandise Imports 90.1 116.4 138.5 140.0 155.0 172.5 192.5Non Factor Services 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.3

Resource Balance -21.0 -30.2 -50.8 -36.2 -32.4 -30.4 -33.9

Net Factor Service Payments -3.8 -5.0 -5.7 -7.5 -9.5 -11.5 -13.5Transfers (net) 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.7

Current Account Balance -21.8 -31.8 -52.8 -39.5 -37.3 -36.8 -41.7

Private Capital (net) 17.7 20.1 19.7 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.4

Public Capital 6.8 17.0 32.3 27.1 23.6 23.9 26.2

Grants and Loans 7.8 16.1 29.3 25.4 22.4 22.9 25.6Amortization -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0Public Financial System (net) 0.2 2.2 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.6

Capital Account Balance 24.5 37.1 52.0 41.7 38.9 40.1 43.6

Change in InternationalReserves (- increase) -2.7 -5.3 0.8 -2.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.9

- 224 -

Table 4.1: BELIZE - SUMMARY OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS,-/ 1972-77

(US$ million)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Outstanding and Disbursed at Endof Period 10.8 10.2 11.7 14.2 14.4 17.4

Outstanding and Disbursed atBeginning of Period 8.9 10.8 10.2 11.7 14.2 14.4Plus: Net Drawings 1.9 -0.3 2.0 2.7 1.7 2.8

(Drawings) (2.4) (1.0) (3.3) (4.0) (3.2) (4.1)(Amortization) (0.5) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.5) (1.2)

Valuation Adjustment - -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -1.5 0.1

Debt Service Payments 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.8

Amortization 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2Interest 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6

(in percent)

Outstanding and Disbursed Balance/GDP 18.2 14.5 12.6 13.3 15.7 17.0Net Drawings/GDP 3.2 -0.5 2.1 2.9 1.9 2.8Debt Service/GDP 1.2 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8Debt Service/Exports of Goods andNon Factor Services 2.3 4.5 3.2 2.9 3.6 2.5Average Interest Rate b/ 4.5 3.7 3.9 6.8 4.2 4.2

a/ Includes Central Government and Central Government guaranteed debt.b/ Ratio of interest payments to debt at beginning of period.

Table 5*1: BELIZE - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 19/6 1977 1978

Total Current Expenditure 16.0 18.7 22.7 27.5 35.7 38.3 46.0

Current Budgetary Expenditure 15-9 18.5 22.6 27.3 35.5 38.1 458

Wages and Salaries 7.9 9.0 10.4 13.8 16.6 18.0 22v 5Goods and Services 5.6 6.3 8.4 -9.2 11.7 13.6 160Interest 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 1i'Pensions 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 125Transfers 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 4.4 3.2 2,4

Rest of Public Sector (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) (1.2) (1.3) (1.5)Private Sector (0.4) (0.6) (0.9) (1.2) (3.2) (1.9) (1,9)

Current Extra Budgetary Outlays 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Ln

Table 5.2 BELIZE - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUES, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Est.1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Total Current Revenue 18.4 22.5 30.5 40.1 43.5 44.0 _

Budgetary Revenue 18.0 22.1 30.0 39.5 42.1 42.8 51,9

Tax Revenue 14.8 17.4 23.8 32.5 35.5 36.2 44,3(Direct Taxes) (4.1) (4.2) (6.7) (10.2) (12.8) (12-2) (14 3)(Import Duties) (7.6) (7.9) (10.3) (13.1) (15.6) (17.3) (20,8)(Excise Taxes) (1.1) (1.7) (2.3) (2.4) (2.9) (2.9) 3,2)(Licenses) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) ( Og)(Other Tax Revenue) (1.6) (3.0) (3.8) (6.0) (3.4) (3.0) ( 51)

Nontax Revenue 3.2 4.7 6.2 7.0 6.6 6.6 7.6

Extra Budgetary Receipts 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.2 1,3

Table LUJ,f.ZE. - CEM4ATU'L O)P TIAENT &PATfG.OS, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Estimated1972 1973 1974 .1975 1976 1977 1978

Total Current Expenditure 16.0 18.7 22,7 27.5 35.7 38.3 46.0Total Current Revenue 18.4 22.5 30.5 40.1 43.5 44,0 53.2

Current Account Surplus 2.4 3.8 7.8 12.6 7.8 5.7 7.2

Capital Revenue 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Capital Expenditures 8.1 6.8 12.6 14.2 15.8 23.4 35.9

Overall Surplus/Deficit -5.6 -2.8 -4.6 .- 1,2 -7.5 -17.1 -28.0

Financing 5.6 2.8 4.6 -12 7.5 17.1 -28.0

Net External Financing 8.3 3.9 5.6 4.3 12.6 16.2Grants 6.1 4.4 6.2 7.9 8.3 8.2Loans 3.4 0.9 3.4 2.8 4.0 7.2Amortization -0.4 -1.8 -1.8 -2.0 -2.8 -2.1Change in Foreign Assets -0.8 0.4 -2.2 -4.4 3.1 2.9

Net Domestic Financing -2.7 -1.1 -1.0 -3.1 -5.1 0.9Monetary Authority 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.8 2.2Rest of Financial System 0.9 -0.1 -1.4 -1.6 0.2 3.8Rest of Public Sector -0.3 -2.4 -4.3 -3.4 -1.4 -3.0Other -3.5 1.3 4.8 1.2 -4.7 -2,1

Table 5.4: BELIZE - FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT, 1972-78

(BZ$ million)

Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Public Sector Capital Expenditure 8.4 9.9 16.6 18.1 19.8 2 48.7

Central Government 8.1 6.8 12.6 14.2 15.8 23.4 35.9Rest of Public Sector 0.3 3.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.0 12.8

8.4 9.9 16.6 18.1 19.8 26.4 48.7

Public Sector Savings 2.3 3.5 7.6 10.7 6.2 1.8 3.5Central Government 2.4 3.8 7.8 12.6 7.8 5.7 7.2Rest of Public Sector -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -1.9 -1.6 -3.9 -3.7

Capital Revenue 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Net Domestic Borrowing -2. 2 2. 7 3. 6 2.7 0. 5 7.9 10.4Monetary Authority 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.8 2.2 )8.3 X

Rest of Financial System [.8 0.2' -1.3 -0.9 0.8 5.3 1

Others -4.2 2.55 5.0 2.9 -1.1 0.4 2.1

Net External Financing :8.2 3.5 5.2 4.3 12.6 16.1 34.1Grants 6.1 4.4 O.3 '36.7

Loans 3.4 0.9 34 3.2 4.2 7.2 )Amortization -0.5 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 -3.0 -2.4 -2.6Change in Foreign Assets -0.8 0.4 -2.2 -4.4 3.1 2.9

Source: Ministry of Finance, mission estimates.

- 229 -

Table 5.5: BELIZE - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS, 1977-83

(BZ $ million)


Current Revenues 44.0 53.2 61.5 72.4 82.1 93.2 102.6

Tax Revenue 36.2 44.3 51.1 60.7 68.8 78.1 85.7Direct Taxes 12.2 14.3 17.5 20.0 23.0 26.3 30.1Indirect Taxes 24.0 30.0 33.6 37.4 42.2 47.6 53.4New Tax Measures - - - 3.3 3.6 4.2 2.2

Non Tax Revenue 7.8 8.9 10.4 11.7 13.3 15.1 16.9

Current Expenditure 38.3 46.0 52.1 59.0 66.6 74.6 83.1

Wages and Salaries 18.0 22. 5 25.2 28.2 31.5 35.2 39.3Goods and Services 13.6 16.0 17.9 20.0 22.3 25.0 27.9Interest 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.8 5.8 6.4Pensions and Other Transfers 5.6 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.6 9.5

Current Surplus 5.7 7.2 9.4 13.4 15.5 18.6 19.5

Capital Receipts 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9

Capital Expenditure 23.4 35.9 50.1 42.2 38.8 37.5 45.6

Overall Surplus/Deficit -17.1 -28.0 -40.0 28.0 -22.5 -18.0 -25.2

-230 -

Table 5.6: BELIZE - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT,1977-83

(BZ$ million)


Uses 28.8 51.3 75.5 72.7 70.5 76.4 83.2

Public Sector CapitalExpenditure 26.4 48.7 73.6 69.3 66.9 72.5 79.1(Central Government) (23.4) (35.9) (50.1) (42.2) (38.8) (37.5) (45.6)(Rest of Public Sector) (3.0) (12.8) (23.5) (27.1) (28.1) (35.0) (33.5)

External Amortization 2.4 2.6 1.9 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1

Sources 28.8 51.3 75.5 72.7 70.5 76.4 83.2

Domestic Financing 10.3 14.6 9.8 15.7 19.6 24.0 25.8

Public Sector Savings 1.8 3.5 7.1 14.9 18.8 23.1 24.9(Central Government) (5.7) (7.2) (9.4) (13.4) (15.5) (18.6) (19.5)(Rest of Public Sector) (-3.9) (-3.7) (-2.3) (1.5) (3.3) (4.5) (5.4)Capital Revenue 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 Q.9Net Domestic Borrowing 7.9 10.4 2.0 - - - -

External Financing 18.5 36.7 65.7 57.0 50.9 52.4 57.4

External Loans and Grants 15.6 36.7 63.7 57.0 50.9 52.4 57.4(Ongoing Projects)a/ (15.6) (36.7) (46.8) (23.4) (8.9) (2.1) (0.1)(New Projects) (-) (-) (16.9) (33.6) (42.0) (50.3) (57.3)CDF - - 2.0 - - - -

Other 2.9 - - - - - -

a/ Includes Hurricane Rehabilitation Grants.

- 231 -

Tl 5,1, 571Z5 - P032C SCTS0 INvIThWHN n01g6. 1979-83

(dr.'OW0 c'jrat pfllat

147 19018 982 19837otai larornat Local Toa 2,sleaa oa oa Icral ioa total totoDLia Local local OctarsiaL Local

09100160 P10312Threman wartac tails Cit, ~ ~ ~~,.L 1 - -. - - - -

toOo ro C jE C2700 2z50 40 60DrAlio tigA 99 9-RiCM 011 44 4 46 -oaaroa.zec_e Fas oisa 1.704 1,304 200 l,102 1.000 102 -juI.tn ai. tS 2 232 .Loual Olo_Lrt oFiSL 1100 1,700 - 50i 50i S6 aS - -Crto Jforag 298 98 290D- - . --

0na Soitd 01150 - - -- -Oortkurn 8g4 1,700 7,700 - 3,S5D S,d50 - 14 74Sorcharn 150 peaT aInd Corona 66 66 S S - -- lao OlguaL k id. 17 Li - . . . -- 3nioL. hour 7*1 7.107 243 242 - 20 _ ,Do" Outer Port 12.442 0,942 2.300Co_run Bight Jatey 57Z 42 30 34 -3 - - - - - -Ca... ?rotactt. 5 sa 3y 53 0--- 5-

Lora gta t01 Z9 691. - 20 205 -. -- ---Air C -eroL T-r 43 43 2 -05aural 0.11ch C tm. 50 s0 --

Corocol 17154.7 octal l2 1 - - . - . -A11 SaIntra Oragt WaLit. La-y Sert.frtao Shoola 3b 36 - - -

UR1 Olholarwhi;t o2h 23 - - - - - -tdicocloa Tr-aiav 39 29 C 0 100 - O 50 - - _ - -3aaarL Ad.ialatraci- tarnoTttiato 372 112 - 95 99 - - . -aC P1ilca 1.320 5.320 3 306 206 50 30 - -Ad. ar-Cti* O1k Sule Ap 3'9 39 - -Lbs Prod..isla 10 s0 . 9 19I Ltbaflaa dsni^ tarad ?,e 2763 263 263 263 263 263Daaaoo 1,990 1950 - 1,930 1,950 - 1,990 1,950 - -Occotal C2-ral Cotatt 31.023 Z8,093 2.930 10,466 10,330 136 3,095 3,095 - - - - - -

U.4 Qt F%bic S scterU,lLL.LttUaissD C CroP loca 310 220 0 293 293 1 10-Atri-aLt. Produ-cic Credit ( 600 600 - 600 6OO 9oo 600 - 290 290Fars tEpr-race Cradi *7 (Ot 7,149 1.373 I11 -

Ca 3cntro Sord 1,300 5o0 300 1,000 900 100 2,000 1.000 200 1,.0O .e20 100 -Agriculalrgl/tad.aacrtal C-di.e (01C) 050 650 - 00 300 - 400 400LadetXlb Iodaetrlal bas. Dtt)t - ZS 263 323 o0 230 IB0 50-ISO s1edgacrial Crd 1. (D7C) 300 100 9 980 -d 2dO ZO

T-ri. Cradttl (Oft) 400 40° 420 420 120 130-root 4alL k Coronl . s.. r (WVA) 211 1c, tOScu 44Cc sVe5r (A) 753 152 - - - - -Salo. City WUcr aud S .rS. (VIA) 6,300 5,300 1,300 5,654 3,154 2,500SeCat Loaa 0ih6r tdaacloa *1 (DP5C 32 32 - - - - -Orodet L.os- agiar Ed ioc 02 0FC1 35 36 136 136 - 6 36 136 13618 136 L36'Orb Wiorktls Cta. local, (Rtobodar) 96 16 70 - , -- . -. - .otmla .allatac to 22_ 4 4 - 42 42 - _

Subtotal eaZr of PNblc Onator 12,539 10,708 1.831 9,690 71040 2.650 4,036 3,786 250 2.326 1,04S 100 36 136

I p I r~~~~~~~~~ a -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LI .. s~'. .. 8. 3.... .o . ,.o .o.o,.,o., . . 3.8.8. .... 8,U. .... 8... ... 2.r;..S

0 +0 0 0 0 oI 0Og~.0 ,3 8;

0 0 - .- 0 000 -. ~t -- -- -0 -- -

N k . . .0230 .0 00 3,O0.0 0.0 .0 .00 . 0.. . U.£~.8 ~R[ .t~~~~ k~~~ 9p33000oo co co.... a a c.,o.ooo ,Ooao.,o~~~~~~~~ . . .. .. ..

IOSb~~ F~i~ Ltai~ £,33oo'0,*~6 0 L,,o * *r 2U ..,. .,.3,,o,0.o.,.0. .o 8 .,,. .,,.5U .,...,

t5 03 01 .-0- 00 0- -0

8~~. 8:81. o.' ... 00 0 2 ~~g. 3. .38 .888.. .-, .0,, ... ,~~,, . .. .. .. .*OO ...o ... ,,,. , .,.. . . . .t 08 8.8

£5 K K. 000 0000 0 0. . .2

IO0~~ 03 1.~~8~2.283.2Z8. .8.288. .~~~~.Z 8 .............. .St338 . co. ...o.. .0 ,.,,.,,, , 8 . . .838......

- 233 -

Table 6.1: BELIZE - CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM

(BZ$ million)

December 31 Sept. 301972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977 1978

International Reserves (net) -4.6 1.9 13.4 19.2 4.7 12.9 21.7 28.2Assets 9.5 10.5 16.5 21.1 16.2 26.0 32.2 40.0Short-term liabilities -14.1 -8.6 -3.1 -1.9 -11.5 -13.1 -10.5 -11.8

Domestic Credit 46.6 47.8 54.3 63.9 85.3 88.0 80.6 94.0Credit to Central 'Government

(net) -2.6 -2.7 -4.2 -5.1 -4.1 1.9 -1.5 6.1Credit to rest of public

sector (net) 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.8 3.0 5.0Official capital and reserves -1.0 -1.2 -2.0 -3.2 -2.4 -7.0 -5.2 -9.1Credit to private sector 47.3 49.2 60.3 71.7 85.9 86.3 78.5 87.7Unclassified assets (n1et) 2.3 1.6 -0.8 -1.2 3.6 2.8 5.8 5.3Intersystem float - - - - - 0.2 - -1.0

Foreign Liabilities (medium-and long-term) 0.7 1.4 3.6 8.8 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9

Liabilities to Private Sector 41.3 48.3 64.1 74.3 79.3 89.8 90.8 110.3Currency in circulation 5.7 6.3 8.5 10.5 11.2 12.5 12.6 15.4Demand deposits 6.3 7.4 9.8 8.6 6.3 10.3 10.7 15.1Time deposits - 13.7 17.6 21.2 22.8 24.9 22.5 25.7Savings deposits 25.1 16.0 22.2 26.8 29.3 26.2 29.6 35.8Share capital 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.5 8.7 8.3 10.4Capital and reserves 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 2.2 7.2 7.1 7.9

Source: The Monetary Authority of Belize; Development Finance Corporation;Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning; IMF.

- 234 -

Table 6.2: BELIZE - CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR

(in percent)

December 31 September 301973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977 1978

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

By Source

Commercial banks 73.1 71.3 66.0 71.6 66.0 65.6 62.8Development Finance Corporation 1.4 5.4 12.0 9.8 12.2 11.7 14.7Reconstruction and DevelopmentCorporation 5.8 5.0 12.4 9.2 10.1 10.8 9.9

DFC Investment Company - - - - 0.3 0.4 0.3Credit unions 9.3 10.3 9.6 9.4 11.4 11.5 12.3

By Destination a/

Agriculture 43.5 44.0 39.8 35.5 34.7 35.5 34.3Sugar (30.0) (25.3) (22.2) (16.1) (21.0) (15.7) (15.8)Citrus (3.6) (7.5) (6.4) (4.5) (1.7) (3.9) (1.0)Rice (-) (0.2) (3.5) (8.6) (5.7) (7.1) (5.3)Bananas (-) (-) (1.2) (1.5) (1.9) (1.3) (3.4)Cattle (0.8) (1.6) (1.0) (0.7) (1.0) (0.6) (1.1)Other (9.1) (9.4) (5.5) (4.1) (3.4) (6.9) (7.7)

Manufacturing 4.7 4.0 6.0 9.1 8.2 9.9 6.4Construction 6.3 7.7 7.9 7.2 8.7 6.2 9.0Transportation 3.6 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.2Tourism. 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.6Other services 27.0 27.4 29.6 29.7 22.4 33.0 35.3Personal 8.2 7.5 6.8 9.0 11.6 7.5 9.5Other 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.4 10.5 4.3 2.7

Source: The Monetary Authority of Belize; iXF.

a/ Commercial banks only. Data for September actually reflect the position of theend of June.

- 235 -

Table 7.1: BELIZE - AGRICULTURPAL PRODUCTION, 1972-78

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Sugar (long tons) 69,967 70,170 88,897 82,874 61,799 91,853 113,554

Molasses " 24,521 26,130 27,042 28,068 20,285 29,597 37,112

Oranges ('000 contract boxes) 894 971 1,101 801 802 633 686

Grapefruit " 421 390 427 535 407 238 301

Corn ('000 lb) 32,209 35,500 28,200 23,000 40,000 37,000

Paddy 12,785 18,000 16,600 10,700 13,798 11,200

Red Kidney Beans 2,490 2,300 2,750 2,500 2,400 3,000

Honey " 185 292 364 298 655 368

Pork (fresh) " 891 652 426 451 371 546

Beef (fresh) " 1,694 2,265 1,908 1,805 2,079 2,472

Poultry " 2,500 2,300 2,400 2,400 3,406 3,670

Timber ('000 bd.ft.) 8,200 10,617 11,784 9,799 7,582 6,214

Source: Statistical Bureau; Ministry of Agriculture

a/ A11 years refer to crop years, where applicable.

- 236 -

Table 7.2: BELIZE - INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1973-77

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Cigarettes (million) 90.2 84.3 91.7 85.1 73.0

Beer ('000 gal) 524 745 807 813 909

Batteries (number) 2,333 2,254 2,500 2,200 3,000

Flour ('000 lb) - - 6,700 13,000 15,486

Fertilizer (short tons) 2,617 5,014 4,475 3,262 3,275

Nails ('000 lb) - - - 128 223

Roofing ('000 lb) - - - 87 345

Garments ('000) 951 1,070 879 1,097 1,969

Feed Pellets (tons) - - 2,600 3,800


- 237 -

Table 7.3: BELIZE - TOURIST STATISTICS

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977a/

Total Visitors 45,607 50,377 50,198 45,985 51,305 52,684 55,000(long/short stay)

Origin

United Kingdom 2,160 2,442 3,071 2,738 2,255 3,017Europe 1,537 1,915 1,375 1,894 3,288 2,274USA 12,303 15,198 16,904 16,458 18,734 16,590Canada 1,669 1,793 2,082 2,334 2,783 2,584Other 27,938 29,029 26,766 LZ,561 27,028 28,229

Arrivals

By Sea 521 488 618 1,666 1,426 513

By Air 17,860 20,600 26,008 20,956 22,796 17,411Overland 27,226 29,289 23,572 23,363 27,083 34,770

Grand Total (long/short -- 49stay and cruise ship 46,458 50,651 50,553 46,726 54,59- 61,473passengers) -Long stay visitors,3 nights or over 31,679 37,808 33,702 31,011 34,511 31,825Short stay visitors,under 3 nights 13,928 .12,569 16,496 14,974 16,974 20,869

Cruise ship passengers 851 274 355 741 3,293 8,779

a/ Estimated.

Source: Tourist Board

current economic position and prospects of belize file copy · report no. 2423-crb current economic...

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