current employment statistics & local area unemployment statistics basics current employment...
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Current Employment Current Employment Statistics &Statistics &
Local Area Unemployment Local Area Unemployment Statistics Statistics
BasicsBasics
Joseph Winter, CES/LAUS Supervisor
Two Labor Market Information Programsthat Estimate Employment in Colorado
Monthly
Current Employment Statistics (CES) and
Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Value as an Economic Indicator
Data on employment and unemployment are used to:
• Evaluate the economic health of the States and the US.
• Guide monetary policy decisions
• Assess the growth of various industries
• Contribute to other statistics, such as GDP
• Detect and plan for swings in the business cycle
• Guide decisions on plant location, sales, and purchases
CES AND LAUS:
• Current monthly estimates of employment
• Federally-funded programs
• Mandated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Why are there 2 different programs that estimate employment?
1. Two Different Surveys
• CES: Survey of Business Establishments
• LAUS: Survey of Households
2. CES and LAUS Cover Different
Aspects of the Labor Market
Why are there 2 different programs that estimate employment?
• Benefit of CES: Employment by Industry
• Benefit of LAUS: Employment by County
Let’s discuss each program in more detail
CES: Survey of Business Establishments
• Colorado’s CES program obtains employment data on over 5,000 business establishments every month
• In order to obtain information on the number of jobs in Colorado, the CES program mails out this survey to businesses located in Colorado
Current Employment Statistics
How is Employment Defined?
• CES employment is defined as the number of employees at a business establishment who receive pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
• People who work on multiple payrolls are counted at each establishment.
Current Employment Statistics
Who is Included as Employed in CES?
• full time and part time workers• temporary workers • employees on paid holiday or sick leave• those who worked for only part of the pay period
Current Employment Statistics
Who is not Included?
• self employed • agricultural workers• volunteers • unpaid family workers • domestic workers • employees on leave without pay• employees who are on strike for the entire pay period
CES data is available by INDUSTRY
Industry Feb-04 Jan-04 Feb-03
Over-the-Month
Change
Over-the-Year
Change
Total Nonfarm 2,131.4 2,131.7 2,159.0 -0.3 -27.6
Natural Resources & Mining 12.8 12.9 12.9 -0.1 -0.1
Construction 144.5 146.1 153.5 -1.6 -9.0
Manufacturing 153.3 153.1 159.7 0.2 -6.4
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 399.4 399.1 407.8 0.3 -8.4
Information 82.1 82.7 86.1 -0.6 -4.0
Financial Activities 153.9 153.3 152.8 0.6 1.1
Professional and Business Services 282.1 280.7 287.6 1.4 -5.5
Educational and Health Services 218.4 217.4 211.2 1.0 7.2
Leisure and Hospitality 243.2 244.0 245.0 -0.8 -1.8
Other Services 85.6 86.2 85.2 -0.6 0.4
Government 356.1 356.2 357.2 -0.1 -1.1
**Employment is in thousands
Current Employment Statistics
• Colorado Statewide• Denver Metro• Boulder• Colorado Springs
CES Employment Data is Available for:
CES data is not available at the COUNTY level
Applying CES Data
• When did Colorado’s employment peak?
• How many jobs have been lost since employment peaked?
Colorado Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted Employment
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
em
plo
ym
ent (t
housands)
Applying CES Data
Colorado Total Nonfarm Employment: Unadjusted vs Seasonally Adjusted
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
empl
oym
ent-
-tho
usan
ds
unadj seas adj
Applying CES Data
• What has been happening to Construction employment in Colorado?
• How does that compare with the number of building permits issued in Colorado?
Comparison of Colorado's Construction Employment and Annual Building Permits
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
build
ing
perm
its
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
empl
oym
ent
(thou
sand
s)
Building Permits Construction Employment
Applying CES Data
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Construction Employment's % of Total Employment
CO US
How does Colorado’s construction employment compare to the US?
Applying CES Data
Colorado's Employment in Leisure & Hospitality
165
185
205
225
245
265
285
em
plo
yme
nt-
-th
ou
san
ds
What do the seasonal hiring patterns look like in Leisure & Hospitality?
Applying CES Data
Colorado's Employment in Professional & Business Services
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-
94
Jul-9
4
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
empl
oym
ent
(tho
usan
ds)
How does that compare with hiring patterns in Professional & Business Services?
Measuring Colorado’s Employment
Recall that:
CES estimates employment from a survey of business establishments
LAUS measures employment from a survey of households
LAUS: Survey of Households
• Colorado’s LAUS program obtains employment information on approximately 1,500 households every month
• This information is obtained from the Current Population Survey conducted in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census
Entire PopulationEntire Population
Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age
Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age
Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16
Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16
In the Labor ForceIn the Labor Force Not in the Labor ForceNot in the Labor Force
EmployedEmployed
UnemployedUnemployed
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Who is in the Labor Force?
All civilian, noninstitutionalized persons 16 years of age or older classified as employed or unemployed make up the labor force
(1) Worked for at least 1 hour as a paid employee
(2) Worked in their own business or on their own farm
(3) Worked a minimum of 15 hours as an unpaid worker in an enterprise operated by a family member
(4) Was not working but has a job from which they were temporarily absent
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Who is Considered Employed in LAUS?
An employed person is one who, during the calendar week of the 12th of the month, did one of the following:
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Who does this Include?
• Self-employed• Full time and part time employees• Temporary employees• Farm workers• Unpaid family workers• Employees on leave without pay• Employees on paid holiday or sick leave• Domestic workers• Employees on strike• Individuals who work multiple jobs are only counted once
(1) They were not employed during the calendar week of the 12th of the month
(2) They were available for work during the calendar week of the 12th of the month
(3) And they made specific attempts to find employment some time during the 4-week period that ends with the week of the 12th of the month
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Who is Considered Unemployed?
An unemployed person is one who meets ALL of the following criteria:
Local Area Unemployment Statistics Who does this Include?
• An individual whose employment ends involuntarily
• An individual who ends their employment voluntarily
• An individual who has worked before but is not working prior to beginning their job search (often called a reentrant)
• An individual who has never worked before and is entering the labor force for the first time (often called a new entrant)
REMEMBER: They must be actively seeking employment!
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Who is not in the Labor Force?
• This includes “discouraged workers” who want to work, are available for a job, have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months, but are not currently looking for employment
• What other individuals would not be counted in the labor force?
Those not in the labor force include all persons age 16 or older in the civilian, noninstitutional population who are not classified as employed or unemployed
Entire PopulationEntire Population
Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age
Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age
Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16
Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16
In the Labor ForceIn the Labor Force Not in the Labor ForceNot in the Labor Force
EmployedEmployed UnemployedUnemployed Discouraged WorkersDiscouraged Workers
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Let’s look at one of the most common applications of LAUS data:
Unemployment Rate:The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
UnemploymentRate =
Number Unemployed
Civilian Labor ForceX 100
LAUS data is presented by COUNTY
Applying LAUS Data
Comparison of the Unemployment Rate: Colorado and the US
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
COLORADO US
How does Colorado’s Unemployment Rate compare with the US?
Applying LAUS Data
Denver Metro Labor Force Statistics
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
thou
sand
s
LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYED
UNEMPLOYED
How has the number of unemployed people in Denver changed over the past 10 years?
Applying LAUS Data
Mesa County Labor Force Statistics
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
LABOR FORCE
EMPLOYED
UNEMPLOYED
How does that compare with Mesa County?
El Paso County Labor Force Statistics
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
280,000
290,000
Employed
Labor Force
Unemployed
Applying LAUS Data
How does El Paso County compare with Teller County?
Applying LAUS Data
Teller County Labor Force Statistics
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Employed
Labor Force
Unemployed
Important Differences between CES and LAUS
• Survey of businesses vs survey of households
• Self employed not counted in CES
• Agricultural workers not counted in CES
• CES counts multiple job holders
• Industry data vs County data
CES vs LAUS
Total Employment in ColoradoMarch 2004:
CES = 2,141,200
LAUS = 2,363,900
Limitations to CES and LAUS
• CES employment data is not available at the county level
• LAUS employment data is not available at the industry level
Where can I find employment data by INDUSTRY & COUNTY?
Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
For Example:
Data can be obtained on the number of people in Douglas County who are employed in Construction
QCEW (also referred to as ES-202) employment and wage data comes from Unemployment Insurance (UI) Tax records and is published at the county and industry level.
Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
Construction Employment: Douglas County vs Weld County
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03
Douglas County Weld County
Applying the Data
How does Construction employment in Douglas County compare with Weld County?
Limitations to QCEW
• Not as current as CES and LAUS
• Not a time series — break in January 2001
• Does not include anyone who is not covered by unemployment insurance
• Does not include self-employed
Things to consider:
• Do I need employment data by industry, county, or both?
• How important is the timeliness of the data?
• Do I need data that includes self-employed or agricultural workers?
• Do I need information on wages?
Finding the data that serves your needs
Questions?