current marketing issues seminar

Current Current Marketing Marketing

Issues SeminarIssues SeminarBA635

Dr. Ed Forrest

The Essence of Marketing

Anything/Everything one does to facilitate exchange

ERGOWhatever impactsWhy-What-Where-

When-How Exchange occurs…

is (or becomes)

an Issue…

Marketing Issues in Perspective

Marketing - part of Business & Business - part of Society

Marketing

Business Society

“Societal Change” creates

“issues” for Business…

which creates “issues” for Marketing

One needs to identify-anticipate-

understand

Thus- in order to identify- anticipate- understand

Marketing Issues in particular

Societal Change in general

Society Defined:Society Defined:

A group of humans broadly distinguished by:

mutual interests, participation in

characteristic relationships,shared institutions, &a common culture

Hence- our search for marketing issues begins w/ examination of…

Patterns of/changes to:

human interests, relationships, institutions &

culture…

…become marketing issues

THUS-

In the final analysis marketing strategy is formulated to

address…

Course Organizing Paradigm

Course Organizing Paradigm“… begin in a more or less inductive or

empirical fashion by identifying

what all civilizations

have in common”

Alvin Toffler, Previews & Premises (William Morrow & Co. New York, 1983) Page197

All civilizations have:

an energy system…

a method of producing goods & services…

a system for distributing those goods & services…

Energy, production & distribution are all … tied together… to form a

TechnoSphere

http://faculty.cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu/afef/Techno.htm

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.icode.com/images/technology.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.icode.com/products/everest/design.asp&h=200&w=175&prev=/images?q=technology&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

“All societies have some sort of communication infrastructure–

Every civilization has a

SocioSphere consisting of interrelated social

institutions, associations, reference & affinity groups

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.aaos.org/wordhtml/gifs/people.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.aaos.org/wordhtml/services.htm&h=242&w=388&prev=/images?q=people&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

‘PsychoSphere’ intimate relationships, subjectivity-personality

All societies operate within a BioSphere & have a PowerSphere-- authority allocated thru formal & informal political institutions

http://faculty.cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu/afef/Bio-Pwr.htm

“Put together these spheres encompass most all that goes on in any civilization or society”

BIOBIO

SOCIOSOCIO

TECHNOTECHNO

PSYCHOPSYCHO

INFOINFO

POWERPOWER

When change rips across all Spheres…

BIOBIOPSYCHO

TECHNO

SOCIOSOCIO

INFO

You have a paradigm shift in principles/processes that define a civilization…

Our Place in TimeSeptember 6, 2012

Nearing end 65 year cycle defined as Information Age-abt to enter Symbiotic Age

Hominid Age 2,000,000

Homo Sapiens 100,000 yrs

Tribal Age 25,000 yrs

Agricultural Age 10,000 yrs

Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770)

Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950)

Information Age 65 yrs (1950-2015)Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2015-2045)

Singularity ~ 2045

"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. --The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer

to knowledge based economy

to knowledge based economy

to primary focus on information gathering, analysis & marketing

to primary focus on information gathering, analysis & marketing

As early as 1969 Peter Drucker foresaw an “age of Discontinuity” w/ upcoming shifts:

From manufacturing based economy

From manufacturing based economy

From primary focus on engineering & manufacturing

From primary focus on engineering & manufacturing

Drucker, Peter F. The Age of Discontinuity. Harper & Row Publishers, Inc: New York, 1969.

In 1988 Drucker wrote “The Coming of the New Organization”

“by 2008 successful organizations “will be knowledge-based

… composed largely of specialists who direct … their own performance through organized feedback… from colleagues, customers & headquarters.”

1. Shift from a goods-producing to service economy

2. Be dominated by professional & technical class

3. Be knowledge driven4. & Future oriented

1. Shift from a goods-producing to service economy

2. Be dominated by professional & technical class

3. Be knowledge driven4. & Future oriented

In early ’70’s Daniel Bell foresaw coming post-industrial society-- that would:

Pre-Ind. Industrial Post-Ind.

Key Resource Land Machine Knowledge

Socio-locus Farm Corporation Lab

"Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting; 1973

1980- Toffler’s 3rd Wave

First Wave ~8000BC Hunter Gatherer To Agricultural Age

Second Wave ~1750’sAgricultural Age To Industrial Age

Third Wave ~1950’sIndustrial Age To Information Age

As Machines emptied countryside...

& gave us factory-work in cities

Computers emptied factories

& gave us paper-work in offices

3rd iteration of Industrial Revolution

3rd Wave of Civilization

3rd iteration of Web Evolution

3rd iteration of Marketing Mind-Set

~ 2 decades away from the Singularity

Social Wave Theory: When all Spheres totally transformed a new

Civilizational-Wave rolls over preceding waves

Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological

Key Commodity Land Capital Data

TechnoSphere

Energy.......

Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech

Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic

Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive

Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated

Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric

InfoSphere Communication

Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive

SocioSphere Relationships

Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked

Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc

Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded

Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long

PowerSphere Authority.....

Inherent Elected Semi-direct

PsychoSphere Identity.......

Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered

1st Wave1st Wave 3rd Wave3rd Wave

LANDLAND

•Basis of economy•Life organized ‘round village•Economy Decentralized•Every village produce most of its necessities

CAPITALCAPITAL

•Like land- a zero sum commodity*

•Necessary for control of Production-Labor & Raw materials

InformationInformation

Uniquely different from previous key commodities

KEY COMMODITY2nd Wave2nd Wave

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

%of GNP

1850 1950 2050

AgricultureManufacturingServices

What’s so different about information?

•Expandable- infinity expansive commodity

•Transportable- geography no longer matters

•Compressible- can be summarized, encoded

•*Sharable- Value increases when shared

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.genetic-programming.org/evolve1at300dpi.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.genetic-programming.org/&h=781&w=511&sz=99&tbnid=PA5wvR9WbzwJ:&tbnh=140&tbnw=92&start=34&prev=/images?q=information&start=20&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=N



TechnoSphere

Energy.......








SocioSphere Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked




PowerSphere Authority..... Inherent Elected Semi-direct

PsychoSphere Identity....... Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered

Production

New Technologies powered by New Energy sources enabled mass production…

Adam Smith -1776-w/ the pin lesson & concept of “man-ufacturing”“man-ufacturing”

Applied in 1908 by Ford in production of Model T

New Technologies powered by New Energy sources enabled mass production…

Adam Smith -1776-w/ the pin lesson & concept of “man-ufacturing”“man-ufacturing”

Applied in 1908 by Ford in production of Model T

The Pin:The Pin:

One craftsman = ~20 pins/day

Break into 18 steps-

10 workers-each 1-2 specialized tasks = 4,800 pins/day

The Pin:The Pin:

One craftsman = ~20 pins/day

Break into 18 steps-

10 workers-each 1-2 specialized tasks = 4,800 pins/day

Division of Labor

The Model TThe Model T Requires 7,882 tasks requiring:

“949 strong men3,338 ordinary men670 legless 2,637 one legged2 armless715 one armed10 blind men”*

The Model TThe Model T Requires 7,882 tasks requiring:

“949 strong men3,338 ordinary men670 legless 2,637 one legged2 armless715 one armed10 blind men”*

*autobiography

Characterized by:

• Hi energy input

• Hi waste pollution

• Low skill

• Repetitive work

• Standardized goods

• Centralized control

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.iowaworkforce.org/labor/laborecard/images/vc038574u.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.iowaworkforce.org/labor/laborecard/&h=216&w=216&prev=/images?q=division+of+labor&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

Today: Production

Labor -Automated Scale- Customized/Personalized

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjAZGUcjrP8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnChn7vtWHU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnChn7vtWHU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjAZGUcjrP8

TechnoSphere

-Energy

TechnoSphere

-Energy1st Wave: MANIMAL winches, wedges, catapults, winepresses, levers & hoists –amplified by man & animals

2nd Wave -

Electromechanical –

“w/ moving parts, belts, bearings & bolts– clacking & ratcheting along”

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~phils7/3416.JPEG&imgrefurl=http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~phils7/studyguide.html&h=336&w=504&sz=43&tbnid=BKUNfZOJ3AQJ:&tbnh=85&tbnw=127&start=2&prev=/images?q=ox+plow&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.trafalgar-scc.fsnet.co.uk/images/block%20n%20tackle.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.trafalgar-scc.fsnet.co.uk/seamanship.html&h=350&w=255&sz=35&tbnid=wcRbgY1h_FAJ:&tbnh=115&tbnw=84&start=1&prev=/images?q=block+and+tackle&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/fspubs/88232601/fulcrum.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/fspubs/88232601/lift2.htm&h=209&w=400&sz=11&tbnid=g36kr2eQGxQJ:&tbnh=62&tbnw=118&start=29&prev=/images?q=block+and+tackle&start=20&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=N

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.dana.com/news/image_library/images/Brake%20booster%20assembly%20line%20germany.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.dana.com/news/image_library/&h=582&w=598&sz=389&tbnid=jWHofC0xp-wJ:&tbnh=129&tbnw=132&start=12&prev=/images?q=assembly+line&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.internet-encyclopedia.org/upload/9/97/AssemblyLine.jpeg&imgrefurl=http://www.internet-encyclopedia.org/wiki.phtml?title=Assembly_line&h=506&w=600&sz=109&tbnid=h0a9Ns6YRIEJ:&tbnh=112&tbnw=132&start=11&prev=/images?q=assembly+line&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8

Initial Electro = Hydro & Direct Current necessitated Local Sourcing

Alternating allowed Central Utilities w/ Long-D Dist.

Info-Processing, Applications &

Storage

2010 20302020

“for past 30 years searching for a new paradigm ..I came to realize --great economic revolutions in history occur when new communication technologies converge with new energy systems”

IR 1.0 - 19th century

Steam-powered print technology became the

communication medium

to manage the coal-fired rail infrastructure and the

incipient national markets

of the 1st Industrial Revolution

IR 2.0- 20th centuryElectronic

communications--the telephone and later, radio

television--became the communication medium

to manage & market

the oil-powered auto age & mass consumer

culture

of the 2nd Industrial Revolution

IR 3.0- 21st century…”mid-1990s…a new convergence

of communication and energy was in the offing.

Internet technology & renewable energies

create powerful new infrastructure for a 3rd Industrial Revolution (TIR)

that would change the world”

Info & Energy Internets In coming era, hundreds of millions of people

will produce their own green energy in their homes, offices, and factories and share it with each other in an "energy Internet,“* just like we now create and share information online.

The democratization of energy will bring with it a fundamental reordering of human relationships, impacting the very way we conduct business, govern society, educate our children, and engage in civic life. *Smart Grid

Lateral- Collaboration

“The Third Industrial Revolution is the last of the great Industrial Revolutions and will lay the foundational infrastructure for an emerging collaborative age.

In the coming half century, the conventional, centralized business operations of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions will increasingly be subsumed by the distributed business practices of the Third Industrial Revolution; and the traditional, hierarchical organization of economic and political power will give way to lateral power organized nodally across society.”



TechnoSphere

Energy.......

















11stst Wave Wave 3rd Wave3rd WaveInterpersonalInterpersonal

Face to faceFace to face

1:1Augmented by:•Listening post

•Distance Runner•Town Crier

•Pigeon•Pony Express

Mass

Mediated

1:Many•Newspaper•Magazine

•Film•Radio

•TV

InteractiveInteractive

VirtualVirtualAny 1:Every 1

Networking: many-to-many

Internet•WiFi

•Cellular•Satellite

The INFOSPHERE

22ndnd Wave Wave

Qualitative Evolution:

Web 1.0 (‘90’s)

Sites = read-only static pages & files

.. click a page & wait. Sites were huge, bloated & buggy

The paradigm=l folders & directories…

Marketing rooted in Mass Media Techniques

Web 1.0 vs. 2.0

Web 1.0passive user=

Only Click& Get

Web 2.0 “content” shared –

interactive Exchange;

“Read” Mode “Write” & Contribute

“Page” Primary content “Post / record”

“static” State “dynamic”

Web browser Viewed through… Browsers & RSS Readers

“Client Server” Architecture “Web Services”

Web Coders Content Created by… Everyone

“geeks” Domain of… “masses”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXFYkbQRgY4

• Enrich the structure of the Webo Improve -search, collaboration, publishing, advertising

oEnables applications -more integrated & intelligent

• Transform Web from fileserver to database

The semantic web connects: Information1 + People2 + Everything else3…..

People

Groups

EmailsCompanies

Products

Services

Web Pages

Multimedia

Documents

Events

Projects

Activities

Interests

Places

Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-

Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-

Evolution Web 1.0, Web 2.0 to Web 3.0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5it8oBMbPrg&feature=related






http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsNcjya56v8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsNcjya56v8&feature=related

The semantic web

Microformats……pieces

of code that allow the

browser to interpret the

data intelligently.

Intro to the Sematic Web -for noobs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGg8A2zfWKg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGg8A2zfWKg

Resource Description Framework (RDF) / W3C Semantic Web Activity

http://www.w3.org/RDF/





The Symbiotic Age A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when we will begin to feel “naked”

without our computer “clothes.” A time when our technologies are

very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are

intimately connected, and always improving each other.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seNkjYyG3gI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S52JyRdA8ZE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2MaxT2r-ek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2MaxT2r-ek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqa1xMesid0

Current Marketing Issues Seminar



TechnoSphere

Energy.......

















2nd Wave vs. 3rd Wave Marketing

3rd Wave-CRMarketing3rd Wave-CRMarketing

Focuses on Share of CustomerFocuses on Share of Customer

Develops CustomersDevelops Customers

Finds Products for CustomersFinds Products for Customers

2nd Wave-Mass Marketing2nd Wave-Mass Marketing

Focuses on Share of MarketFocuses on Share of Market

Develops ProductsDevelops Products

Finds Customers for ProductsFinds Customers for Products

Dramatic Shift in Marketing Reality

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciSrNc1v17M&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciSrNc1v17M&feature=related

Currently moving on to next iteration of

Principles & Practices of Marketing Evolving from

E- Commerce … to We – Commerce … to

Me- Commerce …

Marketing 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 (YouTube)

3rd Wave:Sub-Waves

1.0: ~<-’04 2.0: ~’04-’11 3.0: ’11 ~”??

PrimaryFocus

Product-Centered

Customer- Oriented

Values-driven

Mrktg Comm Target

Mind:Sell-Product attributes

Heart:Sell-How Product will make you feel

Spirit:Sell-How Product Benefits You & World

Principal Objective

creating economic value

creating personal value

creating Societal value

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4C-d-QgXfg



TechnoSphere

Energy.......




Distribution..... Restricted Mass Specialized




SocioSphere Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked




PowerSphere Authority..... Inherent Elected Semi-direct

PsychoSphere Identity....... Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered

The SocioSphereThe SocioSphere

Element 1st wave 2nd wave 3rd wave

Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual

Family Extended Nuclear Expanded

Education Elitist Mass/ Standardized

LifeLong

Business Ind./Partn. Corp. Conglom

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.aaos.org/wordhtml/gifs/people.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.aaos.org/wordhtml/services.htm&h=242&w=388&prev=/images?q=people&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

W/ Divorce of Production & Consumption— Relationships became set of transactions

Society not based on kinship, friendship, tribal allegiances- but on contracts

2nd wave emergence of the Company Man

RelationshipsRelationships

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.mountainwest-bank.com/images/relationships.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mountainwest-bank.com/&h=175&w=175&prev=/images?q=relationships&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.wstardesigns.com/images/destiny/relationships.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.wstardesigns.com/Destiny/&h=150&w=150&prev=/images?q=relationships&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.sparkhound.com/company/images/man_gear.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.sparkhound.com/company/aboutus.html&h=280&w=250&sz=18&tbnid=opXBTAqbJaoJ:&tbnh=108&tbnw=97&start=38&prev=/images?q=company+man&start=20&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=N

The Family:From Mother Hubbard to Ozzie & Harriet to Octo-Mom

1st Wave: Extended Family--Aunts & Uncles; Grand Pa & Ma: In-laws & In-breds under one roof

2nd Wave: Nuclear Norm (working Pa, housekeeping Ma + 2kids, a dog & BBQ) everybody else own unit or institutionalized

3rd Wave: Aggregate HH’s: Mother-Other; Poly-Parents By 1980’s: <7% US-HH’s nuclear; 20% Single, 1:7 single Mom (1:4 Urban); in one Chicago neighborhood 86 different adult configurations…

Education:From Athens, to Ohio State to Phoenix

1st Wave: For Privileged

2nd Wave: For Masses: w/ Standardized Curricula Texts & Tests w/ Bell Curve

3rd Wave: For Individual Life-Long/ Personalized in Time & Mode of delivery



TechnoSphere

Energy.......

















Meta-convergence:

“the tightening of connections among spheres that have hitherto been more

independent”"Culture, religion, politics, environment, ethics, are all going to interpenetrate one another to an extent never

before seen, and they will, in turn, penetrate business in all sorts of strange new ways…“

Riding the third wave: A conversation with Alvin Toffler

The 21st Century- Spherical Meta The 21st Century- Spherical Meta ConvergenceConvergence

Ecological impactEcological impactLabor conditionsLabor conditions

PollutionPollutionHealth & safety concernsHealth & safety concerns

Human rights abusesHuman rights abusesChild laborChild labor

Working in-w/ anti-democratic Working in-w/ anti-democratic regimesregimes

GlobalizationGlobalization

-Industry & Business

Associations

Corporate, activist – Shareholder organizations

-NGO’s- IMF, WTO, World Bank

-Religious & Secular Groups

-Local, State & National Gov’t

Agencies

-Special Interest & Affinity groups

ILO-list 450+ Activist Org.

W3-sites “promulgati

ng policy initiatives”

“--- want max profit for shareholders…with honesty in business practices,…safety in the workplace, ..and also serve larger environmental & social issues.”

“--- want max profit for shareholders…with honesty in business practices,…safety in the workplace, ..and also serve larger environmental & social issues.”

Today's Managers must balance the bottom-line

against the ideals –

The only business of business is business--

Milton Friedman

The only business of business is business--

Milton Friedman

…to the extent that customers express satisfaction in a product or a service, in continued purchases, the producer serves the "public interest."

A successful business satisfies enough customers at a high enough price so as to return a profit to those who have invested in the entrepreneurial activity…

Stark Contrast w/ 2nd wave Mantra:



TechnoSphere

Energy.......

















Generational Imprint as we Come of age

Each generation molded by world events that occur during its formative years.

… distinct historical experiences create characteristics that stay w/ people thruout rest of their lives

Each generation molded by world events that occur during its formative years.

… distinct historical experiences create characteristics that stay w/ people thruout rest of their lives

Generational Marketing: Reaching the Hearts and Minds of Consumershttp://circman.com/ar/marketing_generational_marketing_reaching/

Generational Marketing: Reaching the Hearts and Minds of Consumershttp://circman.com/ar/marketing_generational_marketing_reaching/

February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 76

Generational Life ExperiencesCalled “Markers”

Values are shaped by:

EventsCulturePoliticsEconomyTechnologyPersonalities

EventsCulturePoliticsEconomyTechnologyPersonalities

Common ExperiencesCommon

Experiences

Common AIO’s, values, tastes, style...

Common AIO’s, values, tastes, style...

Common responses

to marketing mix

variables

Common responses

to marketing mix

variables

•Generational mindsets … are major factors in determining

what & how consumers buy…

The notion a group of people bound together by sharing experience of common historical events 1st introduced by Karl Mannheim - early 1920s

Generations Variously Named & Dated:

1. Matures – < 1946 2. Baby Boomer – 1946-1953 3. Generation Jones – 1954-1964 4. Generation Rerun – 1965-1975 5. Generation Xceptional – 1976-1986 6. Generation M – 1987-1995 7. Millennials – 1996 and beyond

1. Matures – < 1946 2. Baby Boomer – 1946-1953 3. Generation Jones – 1954-1964 4. Generation Rerun – 1965-1975 5. Generation Xceptional – 1976-1986 6. Generation M – 1987-1995 7. Millennials – 1996 and beyond

Depression cohort (1912 to 1921)

WWII cohort (1922 to 1927)

Post-war cohort (1928 to 1945)

Baby Boomer cohort #1 (1946 to 1954)

Baby Boomer cohort #2 1955 to 1965)

Generation X cohort (1965 to 1976)

N Generation cohort (1977 to date)

Depression cohort (1912 to 1921)

WWII cohort (1922 to 1927)

Post-war cohort (1928 to 1945)

Baby Boomer cohort #1 (1946 to 1954)

Baby Boomer cohort #2 1955 to 1965)

Generation X cohort (1965 to 1976)

N Generation cohort (1977 to date)

THE GI GENERATION: 1901-1924THE SILENT GENERATION: 1925-1942BABY BOOMERS: 1943-1960 GENERATION X: 1961-1981GENERATION Y: 1982-PRESENT

THE GI GENERATION: 1901-1924THE SILENT GENERATION: 1925-1942BABY BOOMERS: 1943-1960 GENERATION X: 1961-1981GENERATION Y: 1982-PRESENT

Waves of change affect Waves of change affect different generations in different generations in

different waysdifferent ways

1925 1955 20001965 19751935 198519601945

GI

Depression

Boomer

SilentGen

XWar Baby

Rode the Last Wave

Caught Between Waves

Gen Y

Grow Up w/ New Wave

Riding the wave

For the X &Y generations: Increasingly weaned in & imprinted on post-industrial “3rd wave” society

For the X &Y generations: Increasingly weaned in & imprinted on post-industrial “3rd wave” society

Gen X cohort

Psyche : quest for emotional security, independent, informality

(Y) Millennium Generation

Psyche : quest for physical security & safety, extreme patriotism, heightened fears, acceptance of change



TechnoSphere

Energy.......

















Completely

Different Society

Completely

Different Operating

Principles

Old EconomyOld Economy – Manufacturing driven

New EconomyNew Economy – Information driven

Standardization & Duplication

Economies of Scale- Mrkt Share/sales volume

Hierarchical -Bureaucratic

Differentiation & customization

Economies of Scope- Versatility –Long Tail Inventories, Marginal Prdtn & Dist. Costs; Networked Customer base

Diversified -Adhocracy

2ND WAVE DISTRIBUTION

Sales rate volatilityProduction rate volatility

Completely Physical, Highly Intermediated Supply-Chain of Silos…

Supply chain management substitutes information for inventory

Supply chain management substitutes information for inventory

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04

Production Growth Volatility

Sales Growth Volatility

Standard Deviation, 10-yr Moving Average

Goods & Services Goods & Services Sold ; DistributedSold ; DistributedOnline Online

“There’s a new economy out there – and it looks nothing like the old one”

January 3, 2000, page S1

At Least Ten Key Differences

At Least Ten Key Differences

1. Tangible assets

2. Rigid-Vertical Org.

3. Protected markets

4. Competition

5. Distribution hierarchy

6. Rigid barriers

7. Standardization

8. Domestic

9. Prdt-Life Cycle=Years

10. Seller power

1. Tangible assets

2. Rigid-Vertical Org.

3. Protected markets

4. Competition

5. Distribution hierarchy

6. Rigid barriers

7. Standardization

8. Domestic

9. Prdt-Life Cycle=Years

10. Seller power

1. Intangible assets

2. Fluid & Modular

3. Open markets

4. Hypercompetition

5. Direct to customer

6. Flexible entry

7. Personalization

8. Global

9. PLC=months

10. Buyer power

1. Intangible assets

2. Fluid & Modular

3. Open markets

4. Hypercompetition

5. Direct to customer

6. Flexible entry

7. Personalization

8. Global

9. PLC=months

10. Buyer power

Old EconomyOld EconomyOld EconomyOld Economy New EconomyNew EconomyNew EconomyNew Economy

“The new economy is not just a dot.com thing.

It’s not just about high tech, computers or microchips.

- it is about new ways of doing things in every industry, every government.

It’s about speed, quality, flexibility, knowledge and networks. It will affect everything.”(Collaborative Economics)

http://www.tompeters.com/reimagine/index.php

“We are in the midst of redefining our basic

ideas about what enterprise &

organization & even being human are

about -- how value is created -- how careers

are pursued”-2006

A prediction:

“At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we

know them today, will either disappear or

be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just

the next few years.

White-collar employment as we've known it

is dead. Job security as we've known it is

over. Over and gone”

A prediction:

“At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we

know them today, will either disappear or

be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just

the next few years.

White-collar employment as we've known it

is dead. Job security as we've known it is

over. Over and gone”

The forces of next great wave The forces of next great wave of change—are evident:of change—are evident:

Re-imagine!: Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age

“ -- that shift will accelerate as technological change accelerates…”

“It's all so strange and different that I don't even know what a superlative for it would be…”

tompeters.com


• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets

• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets

Likely jobs w/in next 10 yearsLikely jobs w/in next 10 years

Have Existed since 2003

Within a quarter century, non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence

In near future even have/need jobs?

The Singularity is Near

*Kurzweil Explains the Coming Singularity

This past week!

technology will replace 80 percent of doctors

The future of work in America

The Singularity

2045: The Year Man Becomes ImmortalBy Lev Grossman

Feb. 10, 2011

How Accurate are suchPredictions & Depictions?

“Technological

Progress” is indeed

Very Predictable !

Every 18 months- double CPU power- for ½ the price (Moore’s Law)

Every 12 months double fiber network capacity for ½ the price

Every 9 months double wireless capacity for ½ the price

Every 18 months- double CPU power- for ½ the price (Moore’s Law)

Every 12 months double fiber network capacity for ½ the price

Every 9 months double wireless capacity for ½ the price

SCIENCE | August 31, 2010 Advances Offer Path to Shrink Computer Chip

Researchers report can overcome barrier to the continued rapid miniaturization of computer memory.

The announcements significant -- preserves validity- Moore’s Law -- industry has ability to double number transistors printed on a wafer of silicon every 18 months.

- observed time intervals between significant techno-advances ….

3 million years ago collective rock throwing; early stone use

1.5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane

500,000 years ago control of fire

50,000 years ago bow and arrow; fine tools

5,000 years ago wheel and axle; sail

500 years ago printing press with movable type; rifle

60 years ago commercial digital computers

15 years ago commercial internet

Singularit

y

“Progress”

Not only

Predictable

… it is

Exponential

The

Law of Accelerating Returns

explains why

TECHNOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY processes

progress in an exponential fashion

Years Ago

Billions

12 Big Bang (MEST)

11.5 Milky Way (Atoms)

8 Sun (Energy)

4.5 Earth (Molecules)

3.5 Bacteria (Cell)

2.5 Sponge (Body)

0.7 Clams (Nerves)

0.5 Trilobites (Brains)

0.2 Bees (Swarms)

0.100 Mammals

0.002 Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution

Generations Ago

100,000 Speech

750 Agriculture

500 Writing

400 Libraries

40 Universities

24 Printing

16 Accurate Clocks

5 Telephone

4 Radio

3 Television

2 Computer

1 Internet

0 AI & Nano-tech

PhysicalTechnological

BIOLOGICAL –mirrors- TECHNOLOGICAL evolution

Law of Accelerating Returns

Law of Acceleration

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