ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use

Current Satcom Trends

Philip Haines Joanneum Research Annual Conference, 7th March 2018 V1.0

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These days have gone…

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Satellite capacity supply

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Three generations of HTS systems

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1st Generation • AMC-15 (2004), AMC-16 (2004), etc • Hybrid Ku/ Ka satellites pioneered Ka

band • Lower power and larger beams • Gross throughput to ~2 Gbps (125MHz

per spot beam)

AMC-16

WildBlue-1

ViaSat-1

2nd Generation • WildBlue-1 (2006), Spaceway-3

(2007) • Pure Ka band satellites • 63-125 MHz per downlink spot beam • ~5-10 Gbps gross throughput

3rd Generation • ViaSat-1 (2011), Jupiter-1 (2012) • Smaller, tighter spot beams provide

more efficient frequency reuse • 500-1000MHz per downlink spot

beam • ~150 Gbps gross throughput

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Fourth and fifth generation systems

ViaSat-3 • 1Tbps per satellite • Two satellites in production • Jupiter 3 similar throughput

ViaSat-2 • 200-300Gbps • Jupiter 2 similar throughput

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The TBit/s satellite is already happening

1. Today ViaSat-2 and Jupiter-2 support 200-300GBit/s

2. Various satellites or systems will provide 1TBit/s = 1,000GBit/s ViaSat 3a and 3b 1TBit/s each Jupiter-3 1TBit/s

3. TBit/s satellites will lead organically to 2TBit/s, 5TBit/s, 10TBit/s…

4. We need to look to the 1PBit/s satellite = 1,000TBit/s = 1,000,000GBit/s

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Grow from 1TBit/s to 1,000TBit/s at Ka-band

1. Expand HDFSS from 250MHz to full 2.5GHz1 10-fold increase Easily adopt 600MHz of Ka-band BSS frequencies 3.4-fold increase

2. Increase satellite antenna size: From 2.5m to 5m unfurlable 4-fold increase From 2.5m to 10m unfurlable 16-fold increase From 2.5m to 25m manufactured-in-space 100-fold increase

3. Further improvements in modem efficiency 2-3 fold increase

Note 1: requires movement of uplinks to Q-band, V-band, W-band or optical

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Constellations

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Constellation-class smallsat orders 1980s to date Order Constellation Type Satellites Orbit Manufacturer Platform Mass (kg) Launch

1980s Gonets Store & forward 12 LEO NPO PM KAUR-1 233 1992-2001 2002 Gonets-M M2M / IoT 25 LEO NPO PM KAUR-1 280 2005-2018 2017 Gonets-M1 M2M / IoT 6 LEO ISS Reshetnev Ekspress-500 TBD 2019

1993 Iridium Voice & data 95 LEO Lockheed / Motorola LM-700A 689 1997-2002 2010 Iridium NEXT Voice & data 81 LEO TAS / Orbital ELiTeBus-1000 860 2017-2018

1994 Globalstar Voice & data 72 LEO Alenia / SSL LS-400 450 1998-2000 & 2007 2006 Globalstar-2 Voice & data 48 LEO Alcatel Alenia ELiTeBus-1000 700 2010 to date

1994 Orbcomm Store & forward 35 LEO Orbital MicroStar 45 1995-1999 2006 Orbcomm M2M / IoT 5 LEO OHB / Orbital Sterkh 115 2008 2008 Orbcomm OG2 M2M / IoT 19 LEO Sierra Nevada SN-100A 172 2012-2015

2008 O3b Internet trunking 8 MEO TAS ELiTeBus-1000 700 2013-14 2011 O3b Internet trunking 4 MEO TAS ELiTeBus-1000 700 2013-14 2015 O3b Internet trunking 8 MEO TAS ELiTeBus-1000 700 2018-19 2017 O3b mPOWER Internet trunking 7 MEO Boeing BSS 702 1,200 From 2021

2015 OneWeb Internet 720 LEO OneWeb / ADS OneWeb / ADS 400 2019

2016 Telesat test / BIU Internet 1 LEO SSL Dauntless 70 2017 2016 Telesat test / BIU Internet 1 LEO SSTL SSTL-42 168 2017 2018 TelesatLEO Internet 120 LEO RFP out 200 2021

2015 SpaceX Internet 4,000 LEO SpaceX 400 2020-2024

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03b mPOWER

1. SES deploying 8 further O3b first-generation satellites, bringing their fleet to 20

2. SES has 7 second-generation O3b mPOWER satellites on order from Boeing

3. SES currently not paying for the satellites at all… At the end of the construction period in 2021 SES has the right to: acquire the satellites directly for a cash payment (base case assumption) or enter into a leasing agreement with Boeing that would result in a

deferred payment plan or to direct the sale of these assets to a third party

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OneWeb

1. OneWeb has completed construction of 12 satellites in Toulouse, 2 qualification models and 10 for launch

2. Originally shown on some launch manifest for a March 2018 launch on Arianespace Soyuz, but recently slipped to August 2018

3. Still plenty of time for bringing in to use OneWeb’s frequency filings, due from 27th November 2019 onwards

4. Satellite factory in Florida will start producing a satellite every 8 hours later this year for launch in 2019 and service from 2020

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Telesat’s two LEO test / bringing-into-use satellites

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Telesat LEO orbit raising

Current rate of orbit raising reaches 1,000km early-April

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Telesat – public statements 15th February 2017

Erwin Hudson, VP Telesat LEO speaking at Canadian SmallSat Symposium: “We’ve spent the last several months digging through about 5,000 pages of

proposal documents” “We’re getting close now to making some decisions as to how we’re going to

proceed” “We’re hoping to make some announcements here in the next couple of

months” Discussions with suppliers on both technical and funding aspects On schedule to have a first batch of satellites providing initial service by the

end of 2021

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SpaceX StarLink satellites

1. Two SpaceX test / bringing-in-to-use satellites launched as co-passengers with Hisdesat’s PAZ satellite on 22nd February 2018: 1,125km altitude orbit at 97.44° inclination 3-axis stabilized, 400kg satellites, roughly 1m x 0.7m x 0.7m Ku-band phased-array antenna and optical intersatellite links 20 month mission Five ground stations: Redmont and Brewster (Washington), SpaceX’s HQ in Hawthorne

(California), SpaceX’s engine test facility (Texas), Tesla’s HQ in Fremont (California) Possible to achieve connectivity for up to 15 minutes once every 0.9 days

2. Satellites previously known as MicroSat 2a & 2b renamed Tintin A & B 3. 77 satellite engineering jobs on offer on SpaceX’s website 4. But SpaceX managing expectations of the project…

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SpaceX Tintin A & B

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SpaceX Tintin A & B deployment

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Chinese constellations

1. China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) announced on 9th February 2017 that their subsidiary China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) will start construction of the Hongyan constellation this year Hongyan known for some time, but this is the most definite and public

statement to date

2. Hongyan will consist of more than 300 small satellites and provide real-time two-way communication services

3. One of many potential Chinese constellation projects

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Constellations throughput

1. O3b mPOWER (7 satellites): “multiple Tbit/s”, believed to be ~4TBit/s

2. OneWeb (648 satellites): 8TBit/s, but most of it over the poles

3. TelesatLEO (117 satellites): “multiple TBit/s”, most of it in usable locations

4. SpaceX (4,000+ satellites): unclear, but could be 20TBit/s

5. Others???

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Satellites for 5G Initiative 1. 5G is a revolution in telecommunications, a set of

technologies, a set of services, a network of networks

2. Satellite can complement 5G terrestrial systems and offer important societal and economic benefits, while increasing the satellite effectiveness and competitiveness

3. Satellite offer important attributes to 5G, like security, resilience, capacity and coverage, key requirements for 5G Service delivery

4. In order to support the satcom industry and facilitate the integration of satellite in 5G, ESA has set up the “Satellite for 5G Initiative”

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ESA Satellite for 5G Initiative - Membership

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Satellites for 5G

1. Satellite is important for 5G and 5G is important for satellite

2. Everyone can endorse the published 5G Joint Statement https://artes.esa.int/satellite-5g

3. ESA intends to support the satellite community in 5G by enabling developments, trials and demonstrations in line and in support of other 5G initiatives (EC 5GPPP, 5G national programmes, other 5G national and international fora)

4. For more information please consult our web site or email 5G@esa.int

ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use

Questions?

Philip Haines Phone: +44-1235-444340 Mobile: +44-7880-221902 email: philip.haines@esa.int

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Quantum State Keying

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Significant advances in modulation techniques

1. Modulation techniques have come a long way in 70 years: 70 years ago: Pulse Width Amplitude Modulation (Morse Code) 60 years ago: Amplitude Modulation AM radio and TV 50 years ago: Frequency Modulation FM radio 35 years ago: Frequency Modulation FM satellite TV 35 years ago: Phase Shift Keying PSK data, then radio and TV

2. In the last 35 years Phase Shift Keying modems have evolved from BPSK rate

½ FEC to today’s 256-QAM, with 16 times the data in a unit of bandwidth

3. Where will we be in another few decades?

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Quantum key distribution -> quantum state modems

1. Today we’re working on Quantum Key Distribution, sending many millions of identical pairs of entangled photons to two sites in the hope of one reaching each target

2. A 1mW 800nm wavelength laser emits about 4 x 1015 photons per second

3. If we could make all of these photons reach the target, a quantum state modem could deliver 4PBit/s in 1Hz bandwidth (equal to 4,000TBit/s)

4. If we could make a real-world to quantum-world converter, a 1mW 20GHz source could deliver 75EBit/s (equal to 75,000,000TBit/s in a 1Hz bandwidth)

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Timeline

1. Just starting work on quantum key distribution: First in-orbit demonstration already made in China Europe to catch-up in the next few years

2. Quantum State Keying modems: 20 years?

3. Engineering solutions to capture all the photons emitted by a laser: 25 years?

4. Real-world to quantum-world converters: science fiction (but no more so than the iPhone would have been described as science fiction 50 years ago)