current state of world biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given to Willunga Environment Centre on 09/10/2013 (Note: some of the fonts are wonky from translation)TRANSCRIPT
• Anthropocene biodiversity crisis
• global environmental degradation drivers
• deforested Australia• degraded Australia• feral Australia• ecosystem services –
what are we losing?• climate change
• > 4 million protists
• 16600 protozoa
• 75000-300000 helminth parasites
• 1.5 million fungi
• 320000 plants
• 4-6 million arthropods
• > 6500 amphibians
• ~ 10,000 reptiles
• > 30000 fishes
• 10000 birds
• > 5000 mammals
• climate change
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• 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)• highest in boreal biome (60 %)• humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)• dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)• N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent• Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
uHalpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952
Connell et al. (2008) Mar Ecol Prog Ser 360:60-72
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Tawny
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Zebra
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5Fished reefs
Unfished reefs
Shark species
Abundance (
shark
s h
r-1)
Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328
99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...
EXTINCTspecies lifespan = 1-10 M years
Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
Devonian (417-354 MYA)
Permian (299-250 MYA)
Triassic (251-200 MYA)
Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)
Anthropoceneextinction rate 100-10000 background
Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol 2:221-229© T
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• 21 % of all known mammals• 30 % of all known amphibians• 12 % of all known birds• 35 % of conifers & cycads• 17 % of sharks• 27 % of reef-building corals
threatened with extinction
IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES www.iucnredlist.org
City Development Index www.unchs.org
Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org
Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu
Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu
Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org
Human Development Index hdr.undp.org
Living Planet Index www.panda.org
Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com
Environmental Impact Rank
Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8
• natural forest loss2005-1990 /ha
• natural habitat conversionhuman-modified landcover/total landcover
• marine captures1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km
• fertiliser useNPK/ha arable land
• water pollutionbiochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources
• carbon emissionsforestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2
• biodiversity threatRed List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
POPULATION
WEALTH
GOVERNANCE
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
per capita prosperity
envir
onm
enta
l dam
ageENVIRONMENTAL
KUZNETS CURVE
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
1 10 100
0
50
100
150
l inear
quadratic
intercept
per capita PPP-adjusted GNI
Pro
po
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nal
en
vir
on
men
tal
imp
act
ran
k*
1 10 100
0
50
100
150
per capita PPP-adjusted GNI
Ab
so
lute
en
vir
on
men
tal
imp
act
ran
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- im
pac
t +
imp
act
- im
pac
t +
imp
act
poorer wealthier
poorer wealthier
A
B
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
9
21.5
21.5
40
7
1
forest woodland open woodlandshrubland grassland unvegetated
pre-European(late 18th Century)settlement
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
5
14
26
37
16
2
forest woodland open woodland
1980s…
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
i.e., ~ 38 % loss in about 200 years
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
Bradshaw 2012 J Plant Ecol 5:109-120
%re
main
ing
Aca
cia
Cal
litris
Cas
uarin
a
Euca
lyptu
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all
Mal
lee
other
shru
blands
rain
fore
sts
0
20
40
60
80
100
78 %
Bradshaw 2012 J Plant Ecol 5:109-120
• legacy of deforestation –some of world’s highest
• highest modern mammal extinction rate on Earth
• continued mammal declines due to altered fire regimes
• meso-predator release• Murray-Darling Basin a mess• rates of changing climate in
Southern Hemisphere• 2nd-highest GHG emitters per
capita on Earth
Bradshaw et al. 2013 Biol Conserv 161:71-90
intact biological communities and functioning species interactions provide humanity with a host of ‘services’ that support or improve our quality
• ~ 90 % of all wild plant species require animal pollinators for fruit & seed set
• ~ 35 % of all human crops require pollination by insects (> 50 % by Apis mellifera)
• domestic honey bees declined in USA by 59 % since 1947 & in Europe by 25 % since 1985
• bees (& other pollinators) require more than just crops to complete life cycle
• decline mostly from habitat loss, fragmentation & degradation
Potts et al. 2010 Trends Ecol Evol 25:345-353
Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395
1990-2000• ~100,000 people killed• 320 million people displaced• total reported damages > US$1151 billion
Carbon Farming Initiative (2011)• financial incentive to land managers & farmers to reduce GHG
emissions from BAU or sequester (store) C on land (offset scheme)
• Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCU) = 1 t CO2-e = AU$23 (as of 01/07/12)
• ACCU rise 2.5 % yr-1 until 2014/2015; set by market thereafter
• emissions-avoidance: agricultural, introduced animal & legacy landfill emissions
• sequestration-offsets: sequestering C in plants as they grow, increasing soil organic matter, avoided vegetation loss, afforestation, reforestation, revegetation, rangeland restoration and native forest protection
• must be additional, no leakage, permanent (unholy trinity)
van Oosterzee et al. 2012 Conserv Lett 5:266
• largest potential GHG mitigation using ecology: enhancing woody biomass
•most landscape changes likely compatible with biodiversity maintenance/enhancement
•but potentially many negative biodiversity outcomes if not done based on sound ecological principles
•more research on synergies, economics of trade-offs
• future conservation planning needs to incorporate GHG abatement values
• future C pricing largest driver of optimal trade-offs
Bradshaw et al. 2013 Biol Conserv 161:71-90
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SaleSale
YambaYamba
WaggaWagga
PerthPerth
AliceAlice
SydneySydney
MoruyaMoruya
HobartHobart
DarwinDarwin
CedunaCeduna
CairnsCairns
BroomeBroome
BouliaBoulia
AlbanyAlbany
WoomeraWoomera
MilduraMildura
ForrestForrest
CanberraCanberra
BathurstBathurst
AmberleyAmberley
AdelaideAdelaide
MelbourneMelbourne
GeraldtonGeraldton
CarnarvonCarnarvon
TownsvilleTownsville
TibooburraTibooburra
Mt.GambierMt.Gambier
LauncestonLaunceston
KalgoorlieKalgoorlie
RockhamptonRockhampton
Halls.CreekHalls.Creek
CharlevilleCharleville
Port.HedlandPort.Hedland
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© Moronail.net
© WWF
What now?1.forests – stop all
deforestation now2.carbon – tax3.ecosystem services –
valuing what we get for free
4.restoration – fix the damage
5.population – no, we’re not Europe, USA or China
© T
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www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
ConservationBytes.com