curt b. haselton, phd, pe csu, chico jack w. baker, phd stanford university
DESCRIPTION
Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology. Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE CSU, Chico Jack W. Baker, PhD Stanford University. U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development. Overview of FEMA P-58. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the
FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology
Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the
FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology
Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE
CSU, Chico
Jack W. Baker, PhD
Stanford University
U.S. Resiliency Council
Presentation on Software Development
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P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).
P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).
P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to regional/portfolio analyses).
ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to improving the methodology, implementation, ease of use.
The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) uses a modified version of FEMA P-58 as part of the process.
Overview of FEMA P-58Overview of FEMA P-58
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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FEMA P-58 Output Results:
• Losses ($) [USRC: Repair Cost Rating]
• Fatalities & injuries [USRC: Safety Rating]
• Repair time & red tagging [USRC: Recovery Time Rating (some translation required)]
Types of analysis results:
• Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [USRC Ratings]
• Time-based (annualized values)
• Scenario-based (for a given event)
Overview of FEMA P-58Overview of FEMA P-58
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Sample results (12-story RC frame):
FEMA P-58: Output ExamplesFEMA P-58: Output Examples
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Dig as deep as you like…
FEMA P-58: Output ExamplesFEMA P-58: Output Examples
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
EQ: 11122, Sacomp
(T=1sec): 1.02g
Deierle in, Haselton, Lie l (Stanford Univers ity)
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
Monte Carlo Simulation used
(“roll dice” thousands of times).
Each “dice roll” gives a single observation of
losses (and other consequences).
Putting all of the “dice rolls” together gives solid statistical information on
performance.
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Objective process based on data and research. Quantitative performance information:
• Dig as deep as you like.
• Tools to communicate with owners.
• Solid statistical basis.
FEMA P-58: BenefitsFEMA P-58: Benefits
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
I need to hire a geotech to do this…?
I need to do a response-history
analysis…?
I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall
and other contents…?
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
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It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58 as some currently perceive it to be.
The “What If” Question:
• What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58 analysis that could be done in hours rather than days (and provide all of the same benefits)?
FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Most of the barrier to widespread use of FEMA P-58 are related to software and ease-of-use.
FEMA and ATC have created a great methodology but are not in the business of maintaining software.
FEMA has funded additional ongoing development and is currently working on both the methodology and design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.).
For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA P-58 methods someone needs to step-up to provide and maintain enabling software once FEMA/ATC are done with Phase II work.
My Thinking Over Past Couple YearsMy Thinking Over Past Couple Years
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work to fill this needed role by:
a) Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58.
b) Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.).
c) Improving and extending the methodology in the future after ATC/FEMA work is done (improvements, comparative methods, etc.).
Timing: Our timing lines up with the USRC work, so we would like to help support the USRC process.
My Thinking Over Past Couple YearsMy Thinking Over Past Couple Years
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves)
Software Implementation of FEMA P-58Software Implementation of FEMA P-58
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
Soil and hazard curves embedded.
Simplified method embedded (only need period, mode shape,
yield drift).
Structural and non-structural contents estimates and pre-
populated.
Two-level structure: (1) Simple (basic rating, prelim. design, PML)(2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).
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Status and Timeline:• February: Started.• April: Secured a National Science Foundation
research commercialization grant to help fund.• Currently: In active development (Jack, me, others).• Fall: Beta release expected this fall.
ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable).
Status and TimelineStatus and Timeline
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development
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We want to support and enable the USRC rating system effort as best as possible.
We are still in active development, so please:
• Let us know how we can tailor things to be most useful to the USRC effort.
• Give us any other feedback/thoughts (we are all ears!).
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Cell: (530) 514-8980
Next StepsNext Steps
U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development