curtains for the euro

8/2/2019 Curtains for the Euro

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ITS CURTAINS FORTHE EURO

UNDERSTANDING THE CRISIS AND WHAT IT MEANS TO YOU

Bryan Rich


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ITS CURTAINS FOR THE EUROUNDERSTANDING THE CRISIS AND WHAT IT MEANS TO YOU

By Bryan Rich

2012. All Rights Reserved. No part of this E-Bookmay

be reproduced or distributed without the written consent

of Logic Fund Management, Inc.

Logic Fund Management, Inc.

2012 Logic FundManagement, Inc. All Rights

Reserved.

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Reserved.

Table of Contents

About the Author.. 4

Welcome and Introduction.. 5

Sovereign Debt Crisis Just Getting Started 7

The Euro: Flawed for the Beginning .. 11

The REAL Risk in Europe. 16The music stops ONLYwhen the people say no more . 20

The End Game for the Euro . 22

How to Protect and Profit .. 22

Learn more .. 23

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Reserved.

Bryan Rich is an entrepreneur and an

accomplished currency specialist with more

than 14-years of experience in trading,

research, and consulting in the global foreign

exchange markets. He is President of Logic

Fund Management, a currency and macro

advisory and consulting firm.

Bryan began his career as a trader for a $600

million family office hedge fund in London.

The macro-oriented fund managed assets for

a prominent European family. Later, he was a

senior trader for a $750 million leading global

macro hedge fund located in South Florida.There, he helped manage and trade a multi-

billion dollar foreign exchange options

portfolio.

His consulting resume includes work for a

boutique currency fund in New York, where

he developed trading models and strategy for

the core investment program of the company.He later joined the company as a partner,

based in their Wall Street office.

He has a BA from the University of North

Florida and an MBA from Rollins College.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Follow Bryan at www.globalinvestorweekly.comandwww.fxtraderprofessional.com.

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Welcome and Introduction


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Over the past three and a half years, Ive

written extensively about the global financial

crisis, the global recession the ongoing

sovereign debt crisis, currency wars and the

impending fall of the euro.

Back in January of 2009, I wrote a widely

published piece titled, Why It Could Be

Curtains for the Euro. In that piece, I pointed

to the many flaws that had been exposed in

Europes single currency concept, following the

eruption of the global economic crisis.

It was clear that when economies in Europewere put under stress, when the global

economic crisis unfolded, and global investors

started scrutinizing the balance sheets and

fiscal position of countries, the weak countries

in Europe were in trouble. And it was clear

that it was going to be very bad news for the

euro currency.

Indeed, when the skirt was lifted in Europe, it

was found that many countries within the euro

zone had structurally unsustainable

economies, designed to take advantage of a

stable currency and stable, low interest rates

that had been anchored by their strongest

Why It Could Be

Curtains for the

Euro

by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March7, 2009 at 7:30am

Will the Euro

Become the Most

Hated Currency for2010?by Bryan Rich | Saturday,

January 2, 2010 at 7:30am

The Future of the

Euro in Questionby Bryan Rich | Saturday,

February 20, 2010 at 7:30am

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partners in the euro zone, Germany and France.

When the markets finally began demanding

interest rates to compensate them for the risk of

holding debt in a country with uber-high

debt levels and massive budget deficits thats

when the euros demise was set into motion.

I warned of this very early on, and warned of

the threats the euro represented to the global

economy. As the worlds second most widely

held currency, which is tied to the largest

aggregate economy in the world -- the euro zone

clearly, the reverberations of a euro demise

would be very bad news for the global economy.

But all along, the politicians, influential

economists, Wall Street figure heads and

government leaders, not only didnt see it

coming, but actually touted the euro as the

candidate to replace the dollar as the worlds

reserve currency.

With that in mind, given the poor advice

thats been distributed to investors in such a

critical time in history, its never been more

Important to educate yourself on the challenges

facing the world. And a big one is the euro.

Welcome and

Introduction


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The End Game for

the Euroby Bryan Rich | Saturday,

December 11, 2010 at 7:30am

Portugal is big

warning flag for

ALL investors!by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March

26, 2011 at 7:30am

Rolling Sovereign

Debt Defaults and

Euro Break-Up

Aheadby Bryan Rich | Monday,September 19, 2011 at 8:00am

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Sovereign Debt Crisis is Just

Getting StartedWho says? History!

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Europes

Common

Market

exemplifies a

situation

that is

unfavora

ble to acommon

currency.

-Milton

Friedman

Its easy to lose perspective on where the global economy

stands, to be confused by the daily deluge of information.

So I want to give you some perspective on the big-picture,

and where we are today. Because as an investor the big-

picture is critical for you. It can mean the difference

between making and losing a lot of money.

First, during this economic crisis, we endured the sharpest

fall in global economic activity since the Great Depression,

and one of the most threatening financial crises. Yet allalong the way, markets, politicians and policymakers were

expecting, or rather hoping, for a quick return to

normalcy. But its all been based false hope and naive

expectations.

Heres why

The IMF has done what is perhaps one of the most

thorough studies on recessions that share the

combination of a global recession and financial crisis like

the one weve experienced.

And the IMFs study shows that the recoveries of past

recessions with these dualities (global recession and

financial crisis) tend to be longer and slower than normal

recoveries.

Moreover, theres a very important study that has been

done on historical financial crises. It was done by aHarvard economist, Kenneth Rogoff and a Maryland

economist, Carmen Reinhart. These two compiled the

most extensive database of this type of crisis and they

found striking commonalities in the aftermath.

First, they found in studying over eight centuries of

financial crises, that they tend to be followed by

A Study of

Eight

Centuries ofFinancial

Crises shows

Financial

Crises tend

to lead to

Sovereign

Debt Crises


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Sovereign Debt Crisis is

Just Getting Started

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sovereign debt crises. And sovereign debt

crises tend to be contagious.

Given this analysis, we should expect a

sovereign debt contagion. And we should

expect defaults.

Rogoff and Reinhart presented this analysis as

early as 2008. And its been nothing less than

a playbook for the way this global crisis has

played out.

Reinhart went on to look at the 15 severe

financial crises since World War II and found

that they were typically driven by credit

bubbles. And the credit buildup typically took

as long to de-lever as it took to build.

Credit Buildups and Deleveraging of Debt

Are Long Cycles

In the current case, the credit build was about

a decade. If you mark the start of the crisis as

2007, that means were just half way through

the deleveraging phase. And deleveraging

tends to mean ultra-slow economic activity as

consumers, businesses and governments are

paying down debt, not spending.

So those that have been looking for recoveryat every corner, are not in touch with the

magnitude of this global economic crisis.

Reinharts research also suggested that

throughout this 10-year deleveraging period:

1) Economic growth will trend at lower levels

than pre-crisis growth, 2) Housing prices will


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Sovereign Debt Crisis is Just Getting Started

Next Stage: Defaults

remain anywhere from 20 percent to 50

percent below peak levels, and 3)

unemployment will hover around 5 percent

higher than pre-crisis levels.

While this might be news to you, its not news

to policymakers. After fumbling through the

first two years of the crisis, global central

bankers took notice of this analysis back in

2010. Thats why Bernanke rolled out a

second round of quantitative easing, despitethe intense scrutiny and claims that a massive

wave of inflation was coming. It didnt

happen. In fact deflation remains the bigger

threat for all the reasons Rogoff and

Reinhart discovered in their research.

Thats why we should all expect more

economic shocks to come. And the sovereign

debt crisis will end in defaults. And history

shows it will be contagious.

The Four Stages of Sovereign Debt Crises

Stage #1: Burgeoning Deficits

In a financial crisis government spending

increases dramatically in attempts to stabilize

the financial system and stimulate economic

activity. Tax revenues fall. Fiscal surplusesturn into deficits and economies with

existing deficits keep piling it on.

How its playing out

All of the Emus members were (many still

are) guilty of runaway spending.

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Sovereign Debt Crisis is Just Getting Started

Next Stage: DefaultsAll sixteen members of the European

monetary union have violated treaty limits on

allowable budget deficits some to the tuneof more than four times as much! Moreover,

the leading economies of the world have all

seen their deficits shoot higher, some to

record levels.

In fact, the deficit spending thats gone on in

recent years can be summed up as follows:

Over 40 percent of world GDP comes from

countries that are running deficits in excess of10 percent.

Stage #2: Ballooning Debt

When economies are contracting or even

growing slowly, bringing these deficits back

down to earth becomes an unenviable

challenge. Governments have to make ends

meet by turning to the markets. Then those

burgeoned deficits turn into growing debt

loads.

How its playing out

When debt reaches 80 percent of GDP

When debt reaches 80 percent of

GDP threshold, the borrowing costs for

governments starts ticking higher and so does

the market scrutiny. The IMF says five of thetop seven developed countries in the world

will have debt levels exceeding 100 percent of

GDP in the next few years.

Stage #3: Downgrades

When deficits and debts rise and economic

activity appears unlikely to curtail fiscal

problems, the credit worthiness of the

government falls under intense scrutiny. Andthats when we see downgrades.

How its playing out

Both Greece and Portugals sovereign debt

rating has been downgraded to junk status.

The US has lost its AAA status. France has

lost its AAA status. Spain has lost its AAA

rating and Germanys top rating has beenthreatened.

Stage #4: Defaults

This is the final and most deadly stage.

Thats because downgrades only make the

vicious cycle of weak economic activity and

growing dependence on debt worse.

When investors see more risk, they require

more return. Therefore, the borrowing costs

for these troubled countries rise. Then it

becomes harder to finance spending needs

and harder to finance existing debt. And

thats when we see defaults.

How its playing out

Greece is on its second round of life supportfor the EU/IMF. And its debt holders are

getting less than 30 cents on the dollar back

on their investments the same debt that

was stamped as A-rated just three years ago!

And while many are waiting to wave the all-

clear signal for Europe, it doesnt stop with

Greece. Expect Portugal and Ireland to

come calling for debt relief next.

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The euro:

Flawed from the Beginning


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Famed Economist Milton Friedman predicted, shortly

before 2000, that the euro-member countries would

succumb to systematic flaws and fail within ten years.

He might not have been too far off.

He said:

A one size fits all monetary policy doesnt give the

member countries the flexibility needed to stimulatetheir economies.

A fractured fiscal policy forced to adhere to rigid EU

rules doesnt enable member governments to navigate

their country-specific problems, such as deficit spending

and public works projects.

Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not

see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out

their less responsible neighbors.

A common currency can act as handcuffs in perilous

times. Exchange rates can be used as a tool to revalue

debt and improve competitiveness of ones economy.

I want to focus on these four bullets. What did

Friedman mean?

Bullet #1

What did Friedman mean when he called the euro zone

monetary policy one size fits all? Put simply, the

member countries in the EMU cant cool down their

economy, nor stimulate it as needed when they have

no direct power over monetary policy.

Milton

Friedman

Famed

Economist


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The euro: Flawed from the

Beginning

Predicting failure

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Reserved.

This is a key fundamental problem for European Monetary

Union members. The fact is, their economies may be, and will

likely be, operating at different speeds from one another.

Therefore, whats good monetary policy for Germany, could be

bad monetary policy for Spain. Yet, through the European

Central Bank, there is one central power over interest rate

setting policy. And they will tend to set that policy based on

how the bigger, stronger economies are behaving.

What tends to happen, in this case, is that countries that are

performing poorly, without the luxury of cutting interest rates,

will find other ways to stimulate their economies. And they do

so through fiscal policies, like cutting taxes and increasing

government spending.

Typically, there is a natural economic mechanism that keepsthese fiscal policies in check: Its called the financial markets.

When countries cut too much and spend too much,

threatening their solvency or financial position, global investors

penalize them by selling their currency and selling their

government bonds. After all, who wants to invest in a country

that may not be able to generate enough revenue to pay their

bills and pay you back.

With that, when the currency falls and government interest

rates rise, it makes it more expensive to trade and more

expensive to borrow.

In the case of the EMU members, they never had that penalty,

until recently.

They found that they could keep pushing their economies

along through very liberal fiscal policies, and never suffer

consequences. Because the markets continually valued the

euro currency and euro zone interest rates based on the

strongest euro zone countries: France and Germany.

Bullet #2

So given the discussion above on the incentive for countries to

use (possibly abuse) fiscal policies to stimulate economic

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activity, the European

officials that conceived the

monetary union built in

limits on the extent to which

countries could spend or

carry debt. They limited

budget deficits to 3% of GDP.

And they set a ceiling on how

much debt a member

country could have at 60% of

GDP.

That may sound good

policing procedures on

paper, but in fact, it creates

more problems. It further

handcuffs these membercountries.


Reserved.

When a country is in recession, deficit spending and government spending can be an

effective way to achieve economic recovery. And they may need to run a bigger deficit

for a period of time to bridge the downturn in their economic cycle i.e. until the

economy naturally returns to organic growth.

These limits set in the EMU rule book, the Maastricht Treaty, in theory, restricted a

countries ability to work through these economic downturns using fiscal policy. That

creates more problems, as Friedman forecasted.

Bullet #3

Given bullets one and two countries within the monetary union are bound to run into

economic problems. And Friedman argued that the citizens of stronger countries would

have a hard time parting with spending their money to bailout weaker member

countries.

Bullet #4

Finally, the easiest way to solve indebtedness and a weak economy is through currency

devaluation. It inflates away the debt and makes exporting easier typically a key driver

in emerging from recession. But members of the euro dont have that tool. The

common currency is, like monetary policy, out of the control of country governments.

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2012 Logic Fund Management, Inc. All

Rights Reserved.

The Culprit? The euro

The Problems in

the Euro Zone AreAll Rooted in the

Single Currency:

The Euro!

The euro-member countries are in trouble for

all of the reasons Milton Friedman, one of the

most influential economists of the 20th century,

cited prior to that currencys inception over

twelve years ago.

The global recession and financial crisis has

resulted in ballooning debt levels and growing

budget deficits for nearly all major economies.

And typically, when countries find they cant

pay, they have two options: Either a currency

devaluation to reduce the value of debt OR an

outright default.

Neither will work with weak EMU countries

after all, they share a currency with 15other countries (now 16). So currency

devaluation is not a tool at their disposal. That

makes an outright default by a troubled euro-

member the most practical option. But its NOT

an option, at least not an option the euro zone

members can consider for reasons Ill cover a

bit later.

For now, the euro zone officials have createdoption #3: pour money into these weak

countries to keep them breathing and then

attempt to force all member countries into a

fiscal union where fiscal policy is managed at

a central level.

But fiscal union is an unimaginable step. It

would entail all members to give up their

sovereignty, their history, their rich cultures and

heritage. The result would be a United States of

Europe, where government, monetary and fiscal

policy would all be made in Brussels and likely

led by the strongest countries Germany and

France.

And it would mean transferring wealth from

the stronger euro zone countries to the weaker

ones.

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Its Not About Greece; Its

All About the Banks

Dont think for a minute that European officials have been

going to such extreme measures as they have in the pasttwo years because they care about Greece. They dont.

They first responded because they cared deeply about

defending the euro. They arrogantly thought they could

convince the markets that they would plow some money

into Greece and scare the bond market vigilantes away,

those investors that were dumping bonds in the weak euro

zone countries and driving up the yields on government

bonds to dangerous levels. By promising to give Greecemoney they hoped the bond sellers would go away, and

therefore the threat to the euros existence would go

away. But it didnt work.

And in May 2010, we got a clear message from Europe just

how desperate the situation was there. Thats when the

powers of Europe gathered to determine a game-plan for

dealing with Greece. The European Union, the IMF and the

ECB could have backed away and let the country pull-out

of the monetary union and go on with its business of

mending itself through currency and debt devaluation.

But they didnt do that!

Instead, in perhaps the most shocking development in the

entire global financial crisis, they vowed to rip up the

rulebook that the European monetary union was built

upon. They vowed to use taxpayer money of the stronger

countries to support the fiscally irresponsible weaker

countries to the tune of 750 billion euros.

That was a jaw-dropping move that completely

contradicted the guiding principles of the European

Monetary Union. When they made the decision to take

tax payer money from the likes of Germany and give it to

Greece, the politicians effectively tore up the Constitution

right then, right there.


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If you owe

the bank

$1,000, you

have aproblem. If

you owe the

bank $100

million, the

bank has a

problem.

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Moreover, the ECB got involved breaking the rules

of the central bank by buying sovereign debt in

these insolvent countries, in turn putting their own

solvency at risk.

They didnt go to such extreme measures because

they really cared about saving the likes of Greece,

Portugal and Ireland (and even Spain). They did so

because they had to!

You see, when the world was in the depths of the

financial crisis, global central banks were doing

anything and everything they could to stimulate.

The ECB, for its part, was offering up unlimited

funds to its European banks for a paltry 1 percent

nterest. The stated purpose was to keep credit

flowing in its economy. However, the banks werent

ending to consumers and businesses; they were

ending to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece

and Spain), to push down the borrowing rates in

those insolvent countries.

The struggling countries were happy. They were

able to borrow at reasonable rates, even though

they were maintaining massive budget deficits and

burgeoning debt loads

The banks were happy. They were borrowing at 1

percent and lending at juicy yields

And the ECB was happy, because it was aiding the

struggling countries through the back-door

maintaining adherence to its guiding principles and

keeping its appearance as staunchly independent.

But finally, market participants took notice and went

on attack, selling the government bonds of the

weak euro members. Consequently sending

borrowing rates for these countries soaring.


Reserved.

The REAL Risk in EuropeSystemic Fallout

That exposed their spiraling deficits, AND

as it turns out, the flaws of the greater

European monetary union.

So when the decision had to be made by

European officials and the IMF, back in

May 2010, to let Greece go or go all-in

the choice was obvious.

They had to go all-in, because the

European banks were loaded with Greek

debt. If Greece had fallen, the other weak

countries would have fallen, putting $2trillion worth of European bank exposure

to the PIGS countries on course for

massive write downs and triggering

another financial crisis.

With that, the European sovereign debt

crisis isnt a Europe problem, its a global

problem.

The failure of the PIIGS countries, indeed,

would create another wave of global

financial crisis.

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Take a look at the map below from the BIS report. If

youve forgotten how systemic the fallout

surrounding the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008

was, this will give you a quick reminder of just howinterconnected the financial system is globally.

The size of the circles represents each bank

nationalitys share of the total global banking

system, in terms of bank to bank claims. The

thickness of the arrows represents the size of those

claims with foreign banks.


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The REAL Risk in EuropeSystemic Fallout

Ultimately the chart shows that all banks

around the world are heavily exposed to

failing foreign banking institutions.

Its the ECB Too

Its not just European banks, but the

European Central Bank is also at risk of

failing.

A European think-tank, Open Europe,

estimate the ECB is 23 to 24 times

leveraged.

When Lehman

Brothers failed it was

30 times leveraged.

If a contagion of

defaults or

restructurings does

take place, and the

ECB is forced to take

losses on the

sovereign debt of the

weak euro zone

countries, the ECB

could become

insolvent itself.

If that happens expect

another wave ofglobal financial crisis,

bigger than the first,

where markets trade

in two tiers: Risky and

safe.

Source: BIS

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Social Uprising:

The music stops ONLY when

the people say no more

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Europe is

composed of

separate nations,

whose residents

speak differentlanguages, have

different customs,

and have far

greater loyalty to

their own countrythan to the

common market

or the idea of

Europe

-Milton Friedman

Every step of the way through this global economic

crisis the shocks have been thought to be contained.

But theyve proven time after time to be just the

opposite: Contagious!

Thats been the case with sovereign debt problems

in Europe once said to be contained and now

known to be systemic. And its proving to be thecase with public uprisings, too. It started in the

Middle East, and nowits finally spreading through

Europe.

Weve seen these uprisings across Europe to fight

the tough austerity measures that have been

imposed, in many cases, by politicians from other

countries or global organizations, like the IMF.

The people are finally standing up against what

promises to be a long road of economic depression

especially those in Greece, Ireland and Portugal,

all of which have taken direct bailout money and are

now dealing with the massive job losses,

government spending cuts and tax hikes associated

with taking money from its EU neighbors and the

IMF.

To be sure, the politicians will keep this game goingof floating these insolvent countries as long as

possible. And they will continue to use their power

over these countries to attempt to force them into a

fiscal union unifying Europe into a United States.

But at some point, the people will say enough is

enough keep your money and keep your euro.


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Systemic:

Social and Political Unrest

Europe is

composed of

separate nations,

whose residents

speak differentlanguages, have

different customs,

and have far

greater loyalty to

their own countrythan to the

common market

or the idea of

Europe

-Milton Friedman

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Friedman said, Nationalism will emerge. Healthier

countries will not see fit to spend their hard-earned

money to bail out their less responsible neighbors.

And weaker countries will not see fit to give up their

sovereignty to help save vulnerable European banks

and a single currency that has left them handcuffed.

The Euro is at the core of all the sovereign debt

problems in Europe. The easiest way to address a

government debt problem is with the currency.

Devalue the currency, inflate away the debt and geton the road to recovery.

The most palatable option for the likes of Greece,

Portugal and Ireland: outright default. Defaulting,

leaving the euro and re-adopting their own currency

would allow them to devalue their debt and start

rebuilding.

The alternative is giving up their sovereignty and

fighting through years if not decades of economicdepression.

I think the people will vote for the former. And they

will likely express their vote by overthrowing their

governments and then kicking the IMF and EU

officials out.

Thats when the game of kick the can down the road

in Europe will come to an end. And that will likelymean the end of the euro or at least in the form

that we know it.

And while its true that European banks are on the

hook for the lions share of the risk from a default of

a country in Europe, the Lehman crisis made it

abundantly clear that a major bank failure has acute

global consequences.


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Defaults, Departures, Devaluations

The end game for the euro

How can you be prepared

to weather another global

financial storm?

Raise cash: When global fear

elevates global capital flees to

the relative safety of USTreasuries and the dollar. In

these types of crises CASH is

king.

Hedge: Buying puts on the S&P

500, the euro or global stock

indicies can reduce your risk

to global market turmoil OR

an inverse ETF, like the

ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF

(SH) can serve a similar

function.

Exploit opportunities: Buying the

ProShares UltraShort Euro

(EUO) can give you twopercent profit for every one

percent fall in the value of the

euro.

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Dear Investor,

If there is one thing thats been clear throughout the duration of this global

economic crisis, its that average investors have been given bad information and bad

advice all along the way.

In short, its exposed the Wall Street machine for what it is a mechanism to soak

money from the masses, for the enrichment of few.

Its exposed the financial media as tabloid-like operations, more concerned withcreating great headlines than they are about communicating facts.

And its exposed government leadership as ill-prepared, inexperienced and nave, in

handling the worst economic period of our lifetimes.

The net effect of those three sources of poor guidance and mis-information has been

wealth destruction for average investors. For the many investors that lost in the

stock market collapse, its meant insult to injury.

Ive always thought to myself, there has to be a better way. Thats led me to create

Global ETF Monthly an investment advisory program that is free of conflict, with

focus on one thing: intelligent investing.

With ETFs, its never been easier to diversify across geography and asset class in a

cost efficient way. Thats a big advantage in preserving and growth capital in todays

environment. So there are no excuses. Dont leave your net worth exposed to abroker or mutual fund manager or the swings of the broader stock market.

Join me by becoming a member of Global ETF Monthly! If you do so today, for

reading my E-Book, youll receive 25% off of the annual membership. To get your

discount please see the next page.

Sincerely,

Bryan Rich23


24/24

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curtains for the euro

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