custom forecasting: more content than ever...

Custom Forecasting:More Content Than Ever BeforeSteve Root, CCM

Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Strategic Initiatives

April, 2018

ABOUT ACCUWEATHER

We are the most accurate and most

trusted weather brand worldwide

Serves

245of Fortune 500

companies as well as thousands of

businesses worldwide

Delivers

customized enterprise solutions to all industries

#1 Accuracy globally for both 2015 and 2016

*ForecastWatch

Provides Protection

10s of 1000s of Lives

and

10s of Billions Dollars

3 | ©2018, AccuWeather, Inc

MORE DATA + MORE MODELS + EXPERTISE UNDER ONE ROOF

4

AccuWeather

introduces world’s 1st

4-hour predictive

radar.

Privately-held

company

founded by Dr.

Joel N. Myers

First TV

station

served

First to

introduce

7-day local

forecasts for

television

Weather forensics

1st introduced

AccuWeather

weather

analysis

computer

Introduces first

5-day specific

daily forecastLightning

Data &

Graphics

Introduced

1st weather

website launched

& software for

energy

companies

1st to offer GOES-8

satellite images &

mosaics

SkyMotionTM - Localized,

individual weather

forecasts for mobile, PC’s,

laptops, tablets introduced,

US #6,590,529

RealFeelTM multi-factor

temperature forecast,

US #7,251,579

Mobile,

personalized & geo-

specific hazard

warnings introduced

Personalized,

mobile weather

apps and

forecasts to

individuals

Interactive apps, for

weather, queries,

social media, and

displaying of content

1964

1972

1980

1992

2001

2008

2013

2005

2000

1994

1989

1975

2003

2006

1962

1965

2017

10B+ requests

per day served.

Decades of Innovation

MinuteCastTM

minute-by-

minute

forecasts

introduced &

world’s 1st 45-

day forecasts

| ©2018, AccuWeather, Inc


A Company Overview

• The world’s leading mobile and enterprise weather company

• 400+ employees, including over 60 IT, mobile, and digital media professionals.

• Over 50+ years of global leadership in weather and LBS forecasts.

State College, PA New York, NY Wichita, KS Edmond, OK Montreal, Canada

6

There are 10,000+ industrial-grade, government operated, government maintained, and

government calibrated surface weather stations worldwide … these “primary” observations

all are publicly available.

Hundreds of thousands of “secondary”

observations are available from co-operative

networks, remote sensors (surface, aloft,

satellite, model data, etc.), and other

international sources representing various

quality levels and temporal resolution…


7

Of these 10,000+ industrial-grade, government operated, government maintained, and

government calibrated surface weather stations worldwide …

… these stations typically collect a dozen or

so primary, mandatory observations

(parameters)…

This mandatory list of metrics is expanded

To more than 60 hourly metrics, and more

than 350 daily metrics…


8

For the past 35-years, AccuWeather was designed, enhanced and perfected a system to review,

test, validate and correct all observations in near-real time. This QA/QC system yields perfectly

clean and complete data, at an hourly resolution.

… every hour of every day, this final data storage increases by one hour.

Preliminary

Data Selection

Proprietary

QA/QC RoutinesPreliminary Data

Storage

Raw NOAA

Data Silo


9

In the past 35-years, AccuWeather has learned:

Inconsistent Data

Poor or Missing QC /

QA on Data

Shallow Data Depth

• Results in poor correlations

• Inaccurate assessments

• Inaccurate predictions

• A poor user experience

• Low product acceptance


10

Held in preliminary storage, key hourly and daily metrics for all mandatory observations for all

locations reside…

Proprietary

QA/QC Routines

Preliminary Data

Mandatory Observations

• Temperature

• Moisture (dew point temperature)

• Wind speed & direction

• Cloud type and heights

• Precipitation (if any)

• Weather state

• Majority logic on hourly metrics

• Majority logic on daily metrics

• Various checks on reasonableness

• Comparison to extreme (95th

percentiles)

• Comparison to departure from

normal (DFN)

• In some cases, manual review

Industry-Leading Variance-

Capturing Metrics

• Dozens of metrics for every

observation type, including:

• Dozens of Moisture metrics

• Full suite soil metrics

• Full suite of irradiance

metrics

• Hourly normalized metrics

• Daily normalized metrics

• Hundreds of transformations

• And more

• No. America data depth: 60+ years

• International data depth: 30+ years


11

Our success to date is in providing actionable solutions, applying our proprietary data and

expertise to Weather-Triggered business continuity:

Consumer demand Inventory replenishmentLabor scheduling


12

Our success to date is in providing actionable solutions, applying our proprietary data and

expertise to Weather-Triggered event opportunity:

Golf Playable Hour and Day(critical temperature, humidity, lack of

rain and wind)

Plant germination(date of 1st 57’F soil temp for 3-days)

Car Wash Hour and Day(critical temperature, minutes of

sunshine, lack of rain for 3-days; and/or

after heavy snow in salted region


13

Specifically provides custom database solutions for energy load demand

forecasting…

Power load demand Solar and wind energy production Gas load demand



TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL TEMPERATURE °F

HEAT INDEX °F

WIND CHILL °F

"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURE °F

WIND CHILL ENERGY, W/M2

HIGHEST TEMPERATURE °F

LOWEST TEMPERATURE °F

DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%)

NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%)

WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True)

WIND SPEED (M.P.H.)

SPEED GUST (if any, M.P.H.)

NORMAL WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True)

NORMAL WIND SPEED (M.P.H.)

CLOUD COVER (Percent; %)

NORMAL CLOUD COVER (Percent; %)

VISIBILITY (Miles)

NORMAL VISIBILITY (Miles)

PROBABILITY of PRECIPITATION

NORMAL PROBABILITY of PRECIPITATION

WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches)

NORMAL WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches)

SNOWFALL, FINAL (Inches)

NORMAL SNOWFALL (calculated; Inches)

PRESSURE (Inches)

PRESSURE (Millibars)

NORMAL PRESSURE (Inches)

NORMAL PRESSURE (Millibars)

ENTHALPY (Btu/lb)

NORMAL ENTHALPY (Btu/lb)

Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Normal Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Normal Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in)

2-DIGIT NUMERIC WEATHER CODE

2-4 ALPHA NUMERIC WEATHER CODE

WEATHER TEXT

2-DIGIT NUMERIC WEATHER CODE TO TEXT

Value-Added Hourly Weather Metrics available:


SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Beam Horizontal, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Diffuse, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global Horizontal, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE POSSIBLE (Beam Horizontal, on a Clear Hour, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE POSSIBLE (Global Horizontal, on a Clear Hour, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Direct)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Global)

MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated)

NORMAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated)

MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Total Possible)

SUN ANGLE, °ABOVE HORIZON

SUN ANGLE, °from ZENITH

SUNSHINE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Calculated / Total Possible)

NORMAL SUNSHINE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Calculated / Total Possible)

Value-Added Hourly Weather Metrics available:


Value-Added Daily Weather Metrics:

HIGHEST TEMPERATURE °F

30-YR 5th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, °F





LOWEST TEMPERATURE °F

30-YR 5th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, °F





AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) °F

NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) °F

DEPART. from NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE °F

DEPART. from NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE °F

DEPART. from NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

DEPART. from NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) °F

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE °F (if available)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE °F (if available)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE °F (if available)

WARMEST HEAT INDEX °F

COLDEST HEAT INDEX °F

AVERAGE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

AVERAGE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) °F

WARMEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE °F

COLDEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE °F

AVERAGE DAILY WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

MAXIMUM WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M2)

MINIMUM WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M2)

DAILY AVERAGE WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M2)

MAXIMUM "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE °F

MINIMUM "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE °F

DAILY AVERAGE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., WARM, °F

YEAR of EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., WARM

EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., COLD, °F

YEAR of EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., COLD

EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., WARM, °F

YEAR of EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., WARM

EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., COLD, °F

YEAR of EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., COLD


HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL HDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL HDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDDs, All Hours, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL HDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL HDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL HDDs (Base of 65°F, if available)

COOLING DEGREE DAYS (CDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL CDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL CDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

COOLING DEGREE DAYS (CDDs, All Hours, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL CDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL CDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL CDDs (Base of 65°F, if available)

EFFECTIVE DEGREE DAYS (EDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL EDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL EDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65°F)

EFFECTIVE DEGREE DAYS (EDDs, All Hours, Base of 65°F)

NORMAL EDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

DEPART. from NORMAL EDDs (All Hours, Base of 65°F)

HIGHEST SUSTAINED SPEED (M.P.H.)

HIGHEST INTRA HOUR SUSTAINED SPEED (If Reported, M.P.H.)

LOWEST SUSTAINED SPEED (M.P.H.)

AVERAGE DAILY WIND SPEED (All Hours, M.P.H.)

PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True)

NORMAL PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True)

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY WIND SPEED (All Hours, M.P.H.)

HIGHEST WIND GUST (M.P.H.)

HIGHEST INTRA HOUR WIND GUST (If Reported, M.P.H.)

AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD COVER (All Hours, Percent; %)

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD COVER (All Hours, Percent; %)

AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD CEILING (x 100-Feet)

AVERAGE VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles)

NORMAL AVERAGE VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles)

LOWEST VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles)

LOWEST INTRA HOUR VISIBILITY (If Reported, All Hours, Miles)



HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

LOWEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) °F

NORMAL HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL LOWEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %)

LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %)

AVERAGE DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY (All Hours, Percent; %)

NORMAL HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %)

NORMAL LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %)

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY (All Hours, Percent; %)

HIGHEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

LOWEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

AVERAGE DAILY WET BULB TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

NORMAL HIGHEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL LOWEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE °F

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY WET BULB TEMPERATURE (All Hours) °F

GROWING DEGREE DAYS (GDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 50°F)

NORMAL GDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 50°F)

GROWING DEGREE DAYS (GDDs, All Hours, Base of 50°F)

NORMAL GDDs (All Hours, Base of 50°F)

AVERAGE DAILY SOIL TEMPERATURE (Calculated, °F)

SOIL MOISTURE (NOAA / NCEP, Inches)

PALMER DROUGHT INDEX (NOAA / NCEP)

FREEZING DEGREE DAYS (FDDs, Highest / Lowest, Base of 32°F)

NORMAL FDDs (Highest / Lowest, Base of 32°F)

SNOW SEASON (Binary on Snowfall >=0.5", 1st Day to Last Day)


OBSERVED TOTAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches)

NORMAL TOTAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL TOTAL DAILY WATER EQ. (Inches; if available)

DEPART. from NORMAL TOTAL DAILY PRECIPITATION (Inches)PERCENT of NORMAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT

EXTREME OBSERVED DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches)

Year of Extreme DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT

AVERAGE POPs on FORECAST DATA, or PERCENT (%) of DAY with PRECIPITATION

CALENDAR DAY, TOTAL HOURS of PRECIPITATION

SNOWFALL (FINAL ALL SOURCES; Inches)

NORMAL SNOWFALL (Calculated; Total of All Hours; Inches)

1981-2010 NOAA/EC NORMAL TOTAL DAILY SNOWFALL (Inches; if available)

EXTREME DAILY SNOWFALL (Calculated; Inches)

YEAR of EXTREME DAILY SNOWFALL (Calculated; Total of All Hours)

SNOW on GROUND, USING ALL SOURCES (Inches)


MAXIMUM SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

MINIMUM SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

AVERAGE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Diffuse, W/M2)

TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2)

MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2)

MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2)

MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2)

AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2)

TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2)

MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2)

MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2)

AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2)

TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Direct)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Global)

TOTAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated)

TOTAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE POSSIBLE (on Cloud-free Day)

PERCENT of SUNSHINE (Calculated / Total Possible)

MAXIMUM SOLAR ANGLE, °ABOVE HORIZON

SUNRISE (Local to Station, AM)

SUNSET (Local to Station, PM)

HIGHEST PRESSURE (Inches)

LOWEST PRESSURE (Inches)

AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Inches)

NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Inches)HIGHEST PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported)

LOWEST PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported)

AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported)

NORMAL AVG DAILY PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported)

Dispersion Index (Unlimited)

2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (All Hours)

2-4 LETTER CODE (All Hours)

PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (All Hours)

2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (9A - 9P)

PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (9A - 9P)

2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (8A - 10P)

PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (8A - 10P)

Pan Evaporation (Inches)

Normal Pan Evaporation (Inches)

Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Normal Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in)

Normals Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in)



MAX-T, 10PM - 4AM, LT

MIN-T, 10PM - 4AM, LT

SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01 - 07/31, 1ST DAY 0.50"

SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01 - 07/31, 1ST DAY 1.0"

SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01 - 07/31, 1ST DAY >2.0"+

SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01 - 07/31, 1ST DAY >3.0"+

LSR SNOW BINARY, TERRAIN RESTRICTED DIST.

MAX SNOW LSR (IN)

TYPE OF LSR OBS; (M or E)

LSR DIST (MI)

BLIZZARD BINARY

SPRING1 BINARY

SPRING1 SEASON

SPRING2 BINARY

SPRING2 SEASON

LSR RAIN BINARY, TERRAIN RESTRICTED DIST.

MAX RAIN LSR (IN)

TYPE OF LSR OBS; (M or E)

LSR DIST (MI)

FREEZE SEASON

FREEZE BINARY (<=32°F)

FLOOD1 BINARY

FLOOD2 BINARY

HAIL BINARY (100-Mile Limit)

HAIL SIZE (IN)

HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL BINARY-5-MILE RING

MAX HAIL SIZE (IN)

AVG HAIL SIZE (IN)

MAX HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL COUNTS

HAIL BINARY-10 MILE RING

MAX HAIL SIZE (IN)

AVG HAIL SIZE (IN)

MAX HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL COUNTS


MAX HAIL SIZE (IN)

AVG HAIL SIZE (IN)

MAX HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL COUNTS


MAX HAIL SIZE (IN)

AVG HAIL SIZE (IN)

MAX HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL COUNTS

Value-Added Daily Binary Weather Metrics:



MAX HAIL SIZE (IN)

AVG HAIL SIZE (IN)

MAX HAIL DIST (MI)

HAIL COUNTS

TORNADO BINARY (100-Mile Limit)

TORNADO DISTANCE (MI)

TORNADO BINARY-5

MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known)

DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI)

TORNADO COUNTS

TORNADO BINARY-10



TORNADO COUNTS

TORNADO BINARY-15



TORNADO COUNTS

TORNADO BINARY-20



TORNADO COUNTS

TORNADO BINARY-25



TORNADO COUNTS

EXT WINDS BINARY (100-Mile Limit)

SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH)

EXT WIND DIST (MI)

EXT WINDS BINARY-5

MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH)

AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH)

MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI)

EXT WINDS COUNTS

EXT WINDS BINARY-10




EXT WINDS COUNTS

EXT WINDS BINARY-15




EXT WINDS COUNTS



EXT WINDS BINARY-20




EXT WINDS COUNTS

EXT WINDS BINARY-25




EXT WINDS COUNTS

HURRICANE or TS BINARY

HURR BINARY INTENSITY

TROP1 BINARY

TROP2 BINARY

AVG HEAT INDEX T°F, SUNR to SUNS

AVG HEAT INDEX T°F, SUNS to SUNR

AVG HEAT INDEX T°F, 10PM to 4AM LT

AVG HEAT INDEX T°F, CAL DAY

POUT BINARY

POUTW BINARY

ICE BINARY (HISTORICAL)

ICE AMOUNT (CODED; HISTORICAL)

FIRST ICE

ICE SEASON

ICE AMOUNT

SLEET BINARY

SLEET AMOUNT

NWS HEAT ADVISORY BINARY

HEAT ADVISORY STRENGTH (CODED)

NWS FLASH FLOOD WARNING BINARY

NWS FLOOD WARN, or COASTAL FLOOD WARN

SATELLITE DETECTED WILDFIRES

FIRE DANGER RATING

BUSINESS DISRUPTION INDEX

EARTHQUAKE BINARY, 5.50+ on RS

EQUAKE DIST (MI)

HOURS VIS < 0.50- MI

HOURS VIS 0.50 - 1.0 MI

HOURS VIS 1.0 - 2.0 MI

MAX ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

MIN ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

AVG ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

TOT ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

NORMAL MAX ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

NORMAL MIN ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

NORMAL AVG ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

NORMAL TOT ENTHALPY (BTU/LB)

CETI INDEX (T, WIND, R.H.; DAIRY OPS)



• begins with 160+ global forecast models, 12 terabytes of data

on governmental supercomputers all over the world –

including our own models and proprietary commercial

models under license

• proprietary data sets, featuring AI, combine multiple numerical

models + real-time observations

• effective, efficient human-machine interfaces which enable skills

from expert meteorologists, 24X7

• state-of-the-art microscale downscaling of high-performing global and

regional model data for accurate forecasts at 1-km

Digital Forecast System


• optimal blends of the high-res ECMWF, U.S. GFS, CFSv2 as well

as many others using stochastic programs and

proprietary optimization

• deterministic and ensemble guidance applied, plus post-processed

guidance (MOS)

• proprietary data inputs fine-tuned to remove bias

• unique inputs to downscale NWP to microscale (terrain effects,

land use, etc.)

• detailed climatology (normalization)

Digital Forecast System


Hourly Weather Data Cadence• XX:57 - XX:07

• collection of weather observations;

• XX:57 - XX:15

• QA/QC of weather observations;

• XX:08 - XX:14

• collection / processing forecast data

• XX:14 - XX:22

• client output files written via FTP, and all

data sets available to XML queries

• XX:18 - XX:28 – value-added data sets

• Primary data files

• Custom smoothing applies

• Majority logic files (WC and CC)


Chaos,

Instability,

Uncertainty,

Confidence,

Risk…


No matter how many

metrics are deployed or

regardless of how

sophisticated the model

physics are…

… sometimes model

timing needs adjustment

to properly match current

conditions…


Each hour, every forecast is compared to “just received” observation and any forecast

found to be “drifting” or “out-of-range” is automatically adjusted in real-time, according to:

OBS-1

Existing

FORECASTHR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 … HR-XXX

ADJUSTMENTS ? ? ? ? ?


Blending Existing Forecasts with Real-time Weather Observations:

▪ Compare current observation with existing forecast for same hour (rendered previous

hour);

▪ No change applied if delta Temp <=2°F

▪ For delta Temp >2°F:

▪ Maintain directional trend (warmer if delta is warmer; colder if colder);

▪ Using weighted delta (~80%, ~65%, ~55%, etc.) to next forecast hour;

▪ Repeat through a maximum change of 8-hours, or

▪ Repeat until forecast delta returns to compliance (delta TEMP [original vs. corrected]

<=2°F);

▪ All corrections capped at +/- 5°F on the original MAX and MIN


OBS-1

Existing


0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-10 HR-11 HR-12

CO

RR

. C

OE

FF.

WEATHER STATION KXYZ


OBS-1

Existing


0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-10 HR-11 HR-12

CO

RR

. C

OE

FF.

WEATHER STATION KXYZEnhanced Model with

Smoothing

Enhanced Model with

Smoothing


Blended Forecasts with Current Observations – some examples:

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

DE

GR

EE

°F

CST HOUR

TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP

Waco, KACT, Friday, April 6, 2018, Noon Forecast



74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

DE

GR

EE

°F

CST HOUR

TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP

Port Isabel, KPIL, Friday, April 6, 2018



35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03

DE

GR

EE

°F

CST HOUR

TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP

San Marcos, KHYI, Saturday, April 7, 2018



40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

DE

GR

EE

°F

CST HOUR

TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP

San Antonio, KSAT, Saturday, April 7, 2018


72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

De

gre

es (

°F)

MAJORITY LOGIC WARM


72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

De

gre

es (

°F)

Only TEMP and DEW PT TEMP are

recast… all other metrics are retained

(winds, clouds, irradiance, etc.)


72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

De

gre

es (

°F)




Majority Logic WCMajority Logic WC

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

De

gre

es (

°F)

MAJORITY LOGIC COLD


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

De

gre

es (

°F)





20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

De

gre

es (

°F)





Majority Logic CCMajority Logic CC


What to do in the

absence of weather

stations?

Open Mountain Energy

• considering120

square miles north of

Las Vegas, NV, as a

new project;

• now long-term

weather data

available


Install a “Virtual Weather Station” ~ VWS

• No history until hour of installation

• A year from now, will have 1-year of

hourly data archived;

• All primary metrics updated hourly, as

observed + predicted data, extending

out 45+ days

• VWS’s are proprietary to client

application


Analog mapping (S Root, 1950 to date; 1998, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2017):


Risk weighted (S Root, a 2nd analog team input, EURO, NOAA CFS):


Year-over-Year, final monthly comparison:


Thank You!Steve Root, CCM

Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Strategic Initiatives

AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions

Steve.Root @ AccuWeather . com

405 - 359 - 0773

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