d mexican bond market overview n) 000 3 88 000weekly … · to last month. for its part, mexican...

25
1 MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW Weekly report February 27, 2015 Mexican Corporates in Pesos Last issues in the local market Source: Actinver, Valmer, BMV. Mexican Corporates in Dollars Source: Actinver and Bloomberg. Last issues in the dollar market 41,053 19,612 26,685 31,530 1,000 39,088 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb* (MP mn) Amount Issued Issue Vol. Matur. Rtng Coupon Str. ACOSTA CB 200 feb-35 AA+ FIXED: 8.00% Abs BINTER 15 1,100 feb-25 A TIIE 28 + 2.50% No MASCB 15 300 nov-18 AAA TIIE 28 + 1.90% Abs 1,855 7,297 3,125 415 7,500 - - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15 (USD mn) Amount Issued Index (bp) As of Feb 26, 2015 vs last week vs last month YTD Mexican EMBI 180 -1 -31 -2 Mex Corp EMBI 256 2 4 7 EM Corp CEMBI 270 5 4 3 Issue Vol. Matur. Rtng Coupon Str. ELMTIA '25 425 jan-25 BB+ FIXED: 5.5% No GRUMA '24 400 dic-24 BB+ FIXED: 4.875% No PEMEX '20 1,500 jul-20 BBB+ FIXED: 3.5% No PEMEX '26 1,500 Jan-26 BBB+ FIXED: 4.5% No PEMEX '46 3,000 Jan-26 BBB+ FIXED: 5.625% No Araceli Espinosa Elguea Raul Marquez Pardinas Fixed Income Research [email protected] [email protected] +52 (55) 1103 6641 +52 (55) 1103 6600 x 4132 Actinver Corporate Headquarters Guillermo González Camarena 1200, 11th Floor, Centro de Ciudad Santa Fe México, D.F. 01210 Mexican Local Corporate Bonds There were three new issues in the local Mexican market this week for a total of MP 4,300 million: ACOSTACB 15 for MP 200 million, under a fixed rate and a 20 year tenor; BINTER15 for MP 1,000 million under a fixed rate and a 10 year tenor and MASCB 15 for MP 300 million under a floating rate and a 5 year tenor. There are not issues scheduled for next week. We have identified the following issues scheduled for the coming weeks: HOLCIM 15 for MP 2,000 million, EXITUCB 15 for MP 450 million, PACARFM 15 for MP 1,000 million and OPI 15U for MP 4,500 million. (See page 4) The main local corporate bonds that won in price during the week due to a reduction in market spread were: LIPSBCB 14U, AMX 08, CAMSCB 13U, GANACB 11U, VWBANK 12 with contractions of 46bp, 28bp, 16bp, 6bp and 4bp, respectively. The local corporate issues with a reduction in price due to a spread expansion were: OAXCB 07U, LIVEPOL 10, LIVEPOL 12-2 with increase of 30bp, 29bp, and 29bp respectively. As of the end of February 2015, the local corporate debt market totaled MP 1.26 trillion, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the amount outstanding in January 2015. The amount issued in February was MP 39,088 million, which is 3.74 times than that registered during the same month a year ago (MP 10,444 million). There were a total of 12 issuances in the month, carried out by 8 different companies, with only one being a new issuer in the debt market. Mexican International Corporates Bonds in Dollars The new issuances this week were by Cemex 4 3 /8 03/23 in Euros and Cemex 6 1 /8 05/25 in dollars. Mexican EMBI is currently at 180bp, 1 bp lower vs. last week and 31 bps compared to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last month. Dollar issues that showed significant decreases in YTM were HOMEX 2020. HOMEX 2019, CEMEX 2015, CEMEX 2016, AND CASITA 2018 with yield contractions of 30bp, 10bp, 3bp, 2 bp and 2bp respectively. On the other hand, the main yield increases for the week were: CORGEO 2022, URBIMM 2016, CORGEO 2020 and GEOMAQ 2021 with yield increases of 17bp, 11bp 7 bp and 5bp, respectively. As of the end of February 2015, the outstanding amount of Mexican corporates in dollars was US 157,485 million. What happened during the week? Mexico's economy grew 0.7% at a quarterly rate, which averaged an annual gain of 2.6% in the 4T14. This represents the best data YoY from 4Q12. In 2014, the Mexican economy grew 2.1%, exceeding the disappointing progress of 2013 (1.4%) and reaching just above that expected by the consensus (2.0%). CEESP estimated that Mexico's gross domestic product will grow around 3.2% in 2015. Foreign direct investment amounted to US $ 22.570 million in 2014, reflecting a decrease of 35% from the amount reported in 2013. AEROMÉXICO announced the issuance of notes guaranteed by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank), for the amount of USD 195 million with a maturity in 2027 and an annualized interest rate of 2.329%. Aeromexico will use the proceeds to refinance the payment of two Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, whose deliveries were made in December 2014 and February 2015. Aeromexico continues its renewal plan as in the 4T14 it withdrew three planes and acquired another 5 under the scheme operating lease. Aeromexico has a structured issuance (securitization of future flows of sales originated in Mexico by credit card) with an outstanding amount of P $ 3,000 million and a maturity of December 2018. Secretaria de Hacienda, through Banco de Mexico managed to place P $ 29.990 million in long-term bonds maturing in 2020 and 2042. The placement was done through a bond swap, bidders handed instruments with maturities of one to three years for papers greater maturity. *As of the close of February 20, 2015

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Page 1: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

1

MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW

Weekly report

February 27, 2015

Mexican Corporates in Pesos

Last issues in the local market

Source: Actinver, Valmer, BMV.

Mexican Corporates in Dollars

Source: Actinver and Bloomberg.

Last issues in the dollar market

Source: Actinver and Bloomberg. NR= Not Rated.

41,053

19,612

26,685

31,530

1,000

39,088

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb*

(MP mn)Amount Issued

Issue Vol. Matur. Rtng Coupon Str.

ACOSTA CB 200 feb-35 AA+ FIXED: 8.00% Abs

BINTER 15 1,100 feb-25 A TIIE 28 + 2.50% No

MASCB 15 300 nov-18 AAA TIIE 28 + 1.90% Abs

1,855

7,297

3,125

415

7,500

- -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15

(USD mn)

Amount Issued

Index (bp) As of Feb 26,

2015

vs last

week

vs last

monthYTD

Mexican EMBI 180 -1 -31 -2Mex Corp EMBI 256 2 4 7EM Corp CEMBI 270 5 4 3

Issue Vol. Matur. Rtng Coupon Str.

ELMTIA '25 425 jan-25 BB+ FIXED: 5.5% No

GRUMA '24 400 dic-24 BB+ FIXED: 4.875% No

PEMEX '20 1,500 jul-20 BBB+ FIXED: 3.5% No

PEMEX '26 1,500 Jan-26 BBB+ FIXED: 4.5% No

PEMEX '46 3,000 Jan-26 BBB+ FIXED: 5.625% No

Araceli Espinosa Elguea

Raul Marquez Pardinas

Fixed Income Research

[email protected] [email protected] +52 (55) 1103 6641 +52 (55) 1103 6600 x 4132

Actinver Corporate Headquarters Guillermo González Camarena 1200, 11th Floor, Centro de Ciudad Santa Fe México, D.F. 01210

Mexican Local Corporate Bonds

There were three new issues in the local Mexican market this week for a total of MP 4,300 million: ACOSTACB 15 for MP 200 million, under a fixed rate and a 20 year tenor; BINTER15 for MP 1,000 million under a fixed rate and a 10 year tenor and MASCB 15 for MP 300 million under a floating rate and a 5 year tenor. There are not issues scheduled for next week. We have identified the following issues scheduled for the coming weeks: HOLCIM 15 for MP 2,000 million, EXITUCB 15 for MP 450 million, PACARFM 15 for MP 1,000 million and OPI 15U for MP 4,500 million. (See page 4) The main local corporate bonds that won in price during the week due to a reduction in market spread were: LIPSBCB 14U, AMX 08, CAMSCB 13U, GANACB 11U, VWBANK 12 with contractions of 46bp, 28bp, 16bp, 6bp and 4bp, respectively. The local corporate issues with a reduction in price due to a spread expansion were: OAXCB 07U, LIVEPOL 10, LIVEPOL 12-2 with increase of 30bp, 29bp, and 29bp respectively. As of the end of February 2015, the local corporate debt market totaled MP 1.26 trillion, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the amount outstanding in January 2015. The amount issued in February was MP 39,088 million, which is 3.74 times than that registered during the same month a year ago (MP 10,444 million). There were a total of 12 issuances in the month, carried out by 8 different companies, with only one being a new issuer in the debt market. Mexican International Corporates Bonds in Dollars

The new issuances this week were by Cemex 4 3/8 03/23 in Euros and Cemex 6

1/8 05/25 in

dollars. Mexican EMBI is currently at 180bp, 1 bp lower vs. last week and 31 bps compared to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last month.

Dollar issues that showed significant decreases in YTM were HOMEX 2020. HOMEX 2019, CEMEX 2015, CEMEX 2016, AND CASITA 2018 with yield contractions of 30bp, 10bp, 3bp, 2 bp and 2bp respectively. On the other hand, the main yield increases for the week were: CORGEO 2022, URBIMM 2016, CORGEO 2020 and GEOMAQ 2021 with yield increases of 17bp, 11bp 7 bp and 5bp, respectively.

As of the end of February 2015, the outstanding amount of Mexican corporates in dollars was US 157,485 million.

What happened during the week?

Mexico's economy grew 0.7% at a quarterly rate, which averaged an annual gain of 2.6% in the 4T14. This represents the best data YoY from 4Q12. In 2014, the Mexican economy grew 2.1%, exceeding the disappointing progress of 2013 (1.4%) and reaching just above that expected by the consensus (2.0%). CEESP estimated that Mexico's gross domestic product will grow around 3.2% in 2015. Foreign direct investment amounted to US $ 22.570 million in 2014, reflecting a decrease of 35% from the amount reported in 2013. AEROMÉXICO announced the issuance of notes guaranteed by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank), for the amount of USD 195 million with a maturity in 2027 and an annualized interest rate of 2.329%. Aeromexico will use the proceeds to refinance the payment of two Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, whose deliveries were made in December 2014 and February 2015. Aeromexico continues its renewal plan as in the 4T14 it withdrew three planes and acquired another 5 under the scheme operating lease. Aeromexico has a structured issuance (securitization of future flows of sales originated in Mexico by credit card) with an outstanding amount of P $ 3,000 million and a maturity of December 2018. Secretaria de Hacienda, through Banco de Mexico managed to place P $ 29.990 million in long-term bonds maturing in 2020 and 2042. The placement was done through a bond swap, bidders handed instruments with maturities of one to three years for papers greater maturity.

*As of the close of February 20, 2015

Page 2: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

2

Overview of the Mexican Local Market (as of February 2015)

As of the end of February 2015, the local corporate debt market totaled MP 1.26 trillion, representing a 4.9% increase compared to the amount outstanding in February 2014. For purposes of this report, we consider as part of the corporate debt market unsecured issues from corporates and federal agencies, quasi-sovereign bonds, bank bonds, asset-backed securities, and bonds with partial or full guarantees.

Main Characteristics

Outstanding Amount Amount Placed Per Year

Main Issuers (Amount Issued)

Distribution by Type of Structure

Local Scale Ratings

Reference Rates

Source: Actinver, Bank of Mexico, Valmer.

*As of February 20, 2015

1,164,451

1,176,344

1,241,446

1,260,506

1,100,000

1,120,000

1,140,000

1,160,000

1,180,000

1,200,000

1,220,000

1,240,000

1,260,000

1,280,000

2012 2013 2014 2015*

(MP mn)

224,973 226,299

281,823 267,615

40,088

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

(MP mn)

277,405

135,943

95,94886,855

80,481 76,724 72,17245,940 39,426

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

PE

ME

X

CF

E

TF

OV

IS

CE

DE

VIS

AM

X

INB

UR

SA

PM

XC

B

BA

NO

RC

B

BIN

BU

R

(MP mn)Federal

Agencies 20%

Banks 13%

Development Banks 5%

CDO 3%Future Flow

16%

ABS 16%

Guarantees 1%

Unsecured 26%

AAA 75%

AA+ 6%

AA 8%

AA- 2%

A+ 1%A 4%

BBB 1%

Below 3%

CETES 1821%

CETES 912%

FIJA34%

TIIE 1820%TIIE 28

35%

TIIE 910%

UDIS28%

Page 3: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

3

Overview of the Mexican Dollar Bond International Market (as of February 2015)

As of the end of February 2015, the outstanding amount of Mexican corporates in dollars was US 157,347 million, representing 12.6% more vs. February 2014. US 42,085 million are sovereign bonds issued by the Mexican federal government.

Main Characteristics

Outstanding Volume Amount Placed Per Month

Main Issuers (Outstanding Amount) Distribution by Sector

Global Scale Ratings Reference Rates

Source: Actinver, Bloomberg.

*As of February 20, 2015

146,557

149,596151,218 151,633

164,985

157,347

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15*

(USD mn)

1,855

7,297

3,125

415

7,500

- -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15

(USD mn)

$4

2,0

85

$4

1,7

59

$1

3,1

22

$1

0,8

76

$5

,95

0

$3

,00

0

$3

,00

0

$2

,99

8

$2

,90

0

$2

,30

0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

UM

S

PE

ME

X

AM

X

CE

ME

X

BB

VA

CF

EC

B

KO

F

TL

EV

ISA

BIM

BO

BS

AN

T

(USD mn)

Bank6%

Cement9%

Energy30%

Other15%

Sovereign30%

Telecom10%

BBB 22%

BBB- 5%

BB+ 2%

BB 3%

BB- 1%

B+ 6%

B 2%

B- 0%

Other 19%

A 1%

A- 12%

BBB+ 27%

FIXED96%

LIBOR2%

MIXT2%

Page 4: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

4

New MXP bonds to be placed

According to preliminary programs registered in the Mexican Stock Exchange, the following issues are pending to be placed in the Mexican local market:

Source: Actinver, BMV. NO = Unsecured. *Local scale rating. Vol. = Volume in MXP mn. FF = Future Flow.*Retap.

Next Maturities in pesos

Instrument Vol. Date Rtng* Ref. Rate Issuer CFECB 05 3,000 6-mar-15 AAA CETE91 + 0.79% CFE FACILSA 12 500 6-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.70% FACILSA FACILSA 13 750 6-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.60% FACILSA NRF 12 2,500 12-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.50% NRF BACMEXT 11 5,000 20-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.01% BACMEXT BLADEX 12 2,000 20-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.65% BLADEX HOLCIM 12 1,500 27-mar-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.57% HOLCIM CADU 12 300 24-apr-15 A- TIIE28 + 4.00% CADU FEFA 12 3,000 7-may-15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.25% FEFA GASN 11-2 2,540 15-may-15 AA+ TIIE28 + 0.65% GASNAT BINBUR 12-2 4,600 28-may15 AAA TIIE28 + 0.25% INBURSA

Source: Actinver, BMV. Vol.=Volume in MXP mn.

Next Maturities in dollars

Instrument Vol. Date Rtng* Ref. Rate Issuer UMS ‘15 1,226 3-mar-15 BBB FIXED: 6.63% UMS CEMEX ‘15 204 15-mar-15 B+ FIXED: 4.88% Cemex AMX ‘15 750 30-mar-15 A- FIXED: 3.63% America Movil CREAL ‘15 26 14-apr-15 BB FIXED: 10.25% Credito Real OCEANO ‘15 335 15-jul-15 NR FIXED: 11.25% Oceanografia BANORTE ‘15 300 19-jul-15 BBB FIXED: 4.38% Banorte SSISTE,AS ‘15 5 4-sep-15 NR FIXED: 12.00% Sistemas INT CMR HOMEX ‘15 250 28-sep-15 C FIXED: 7.50% Homex CEMEX ‘15 800 30-sep-15 B+ LIBOR + 0.053% Cemex

Source: Actinver, BMV. Vol.=Volume in MXP mn

Next Issuances Instrument Vol. Date Term Str. Rtng* Ref. Rate Amort. Issuer Bookrunner

HOLCIM 15 2,000 18-mar-15 5.0 NO AAA TIIE 28 + 0.30% Bullet Holcim Capital México BBVA, HSBC, Santander EXITUCB 15 450 18-mar-15 4.0 ABS AAA TIIE 28 + 1.80% Parcial Exitus Capital Scotiabank

PACARFM 15 1,000 24-mar-15 4.0 NO AAA TIIE 28 + 0.24% Parcial Paccar Financial México Accival, HSBC OPI 15U 4,500 25-mar-15 20.0 NO AA+ UDIS: * Parcial Org. Proyectos de Infraestructura Actinver, Barclays, Banorte Fuente: Actinver, BMV. Est. = Tipo de Estructura. Tipo Amort. = Amortización. ABS: Emisión respaldada por activos. * Actinver participa como colocador, por lo que no se proporciona tasa estimada.

CFE Fa

cilea

sing

Facil

easin

g NRF

Banc

omex

Blad

ex

Holci

m

Cadu

FEFA

Gas

N.

B. In

burs

a

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

6-M

ar-1

5

6-M

ar-1

5

6-M

ar-1

5

12-M

ar-1

5

20-M

ar-1

5

20-M

ar-1

5

27-M

ar-1

5

24-A

pr-1

5

7-M

ay-1

5

15-M

ay-

15

28-M

ay-

15

(MP mn)

2,180

26

635

1,055

30 690

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

mar

-15

abr-

15

jul-1

5

sep-

15

no

v-15

dic

-15

(USD mn)

Page 5: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

5

Ownership of government securities

Ownership of government securities

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Re

po

rto

Ban

cari

o

Gara

ntías

Ba

nx

ico

Sie

fore

s

So

c. In

v.

Seg

uro

s

Otr

os

Extr

anje

ros

(MXP mn)

Cetes Bondes Bondes D

Repo Bank Guaranty Banxico Siefores MutualF. Insurance Other Foreign Total

Sovereign Securities (MXP mn)

Cetes 30,620 32,650 11,050 - 74,517 57,951 11,315 140,020 605,083 963,207 Bondes - - - - - - - - - - Bondes D 19,342 118,225 4,192 - 44,597 420,826 16,248 464,949 2,008 1,090,387 Udibonos 5,028 23,041 25,436 - 437,120 96,833 146,659 191,712 89,706 1,015,537 Bonos M 113,288 136,566 37,122 - 333,895 102,098 64,769 240,436 1,243,546 2,281,156 Total 168,279 310,482 77,800 - 890,129 677,708 238,991 1,037,118 1,940,344 5,350,287

IPAB Securities (MXP mn)

BPAS - 149 - - - 9,284 40 2,525 2 12,000 BPAT - 130 - - - 1,524 185 3,173 - 5,012 BPA182 23,880 19,066 - 25,768 13,762 129,677 3,633 177,858 3,566 397,210 BPAG28 14,505 8,570 - - 2,392 110,133 1,766 33,748 10 171,124 BPAG91 3,779 24,865 - - 2,108 116,549 1,592 161,269 177 310,339 Total 42,165 52,780 - 25,768 18,262 367,167 7,217 378,573 3,754 895,685

Total 210,443 363,262 77,800 25,768 908,391 1,044,876 246,207 1,415,690 1,944,098 6,245,972

Source: Actinver, Bank of Mexico as of June 18, 2014.

Foreign ownership of government securities

Evolution by type of instrument

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

No

v-12

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

May-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct-13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Fe

b-1

5

Cetes Bonos Udibonos

MBONOS–Foreign ownership evolution UDIBONOS–Foreign ownership evolution

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

No

v-12

De

c-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

No

v-13

De

c-1

3

Jan-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Foreign Local

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

No

v-12

De

c-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

No

v-13

De

c-1

3

Jan-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Foreign Local Source: Actinver, Bank of Mexico as of June 18, 2014.

Page 6: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

6

Sovereign Bonds in Pesos – MBONOS

Vo l. M at.

Issue P smn D ate Y-M D ur R tng. A ct. M in M ax 1wk 1mth 1q C urva A ct. M in M ax 1wk 1mth 1q

M BONO150618 89,583 Jun-15 0.3 0.0 AAA 100.9041 100.9041 101.6231 -0.0568 -0.2917 -0.7268 2.5904 3.0400 2.9200 3.1200 0 10 -3

M BONO151217 106,821 Dec-15 0.8 0.0 AAA 103.7483 103.7483 105.0251 -0.1986 -0.6119 -1.2895 3.4098 3.3000 3.0400 3.3700 13 24 12

M BONO160616 148,814 Jun-16 1.3 0.0 AAA 103.4375 103.2412 104.3005 0.1099 -0.5147 -0.8702 3.8190 3.5600 3.2300 3.7500 -12 21 14

M BONO161215 127,248 Dec-16 1.8 0.0 AAA 106.1006 105.7131 107.2699 0.1575 -0.9885 -1.1584 4.0939 3.7600 3.2800 4.0100 -12 37 16

M BONO170615 116,693 Jun-17 2.3 0.0 AAA 102.2006 101.5461 103.5056 0.3873 -1.0350 -0.5053 4.3012 4.0000 3.4700 4.3000 -18 41 11

M BONO171214 157,265 Dec-17 2.8 0.0 AAA 109.0612 108.3998 110.8300 0.4737 -1.3607 -1.1347 4.4677 4.3200 3.7900 4.5900 -19 38 12

M BONO180614 216,347 Jun-18 3.3 0.0 AAA 100.5767 99.4535 101.8594 0.4600 -0.8081 -0.3751 4.6069 4.5600 4.1600 4.9200 -15 25 10

M BONO181213 128,689 Dec-18 3.8 0.0 AAA 113.1151 112.2453 115.0602 0.3157 -1.3517 -1.4389 4.7264 4.7300 4.2900 5.0200 -10 28 16

M BONO191211 0 Dec-19 4.8 0.0 AAA 99.8222 98.6848 101.9644 0.4691 -1.5709 -0.3534 4.9240 5.0400 4.5500 5.3000 -11 36 8

M BONO200611 94,441 Jun-20 5.3 0.0 AAA 113.3024 112.2491 116.0972 0.4585 -2.0882 -0.8167 5.0085 5.1300 4.6200 5.4200 -10 37 5

M BONO210610 115,660 Jun-21 6.3 0.0 AAA 106.3007 104.0023 109.1020 0.6487 -1.9474 0.0123 5.1550 5.3200 4.8400 5.7600 -12 33 -4

M BONO220609 108,293 Jun-22 7.3 0.0 AAA 106.4305 103.3182 108.9837 0.4234 -1.8502 0.6464 5.2800 5.4300 5.0400 5.9500 -7 28 -13

M BONO231207 92,444 Dec-23 8.8 0.0 AAA 117.0180 112.7480 120.1211 0.2776 -2.1648 1.0203 5.4385 5.5500 5.1700 6.1500 -4 26 -18

M BONO241205 197,095 Dec-24 9.8 0.0 AAA 133.2964 128.4970 137.1263 0.4947 -2.7231 1.1001 5.5298 5.5800 5.1900 6.1700 -6 27 -19

M BONO270603 86,919 Jun-27 12.3 0.0 AAA 114.1417 108.5300 118.7214 0.2700 -3.6868 1.9926 5.7226 5.8800 5.4200 6.5000 -3 37 -23

M BONO290531 94,900 M ay-29 14.3 0.0 AAA 124.4890 116.7451 129.4015 0.9777 -3.9854 3.3726 5.8505 5.9500 5.5300 6.6900 -9 34 -33

M BONO310529 137,127 M ay-31 16.3 0.0 AAA 117.4514 109.4971 122.7574 0.7927 -4.3342 4.0449 5.9615 6.0600 5.6200 6.7900 -7 36 -37

M BONO341123 15,000 Nov-34 19.8 0.0 AAA 118.6548 109.4247 124.4739 0.7644 -4.7199 4.9320 6.1266 6.1200 5.6900 6.8800 -6 35 -40

M BONO361120 62,553 Nov-36 21.7 0.0 AAA 145.9566 134.2828 152.1315 1.7187 -4.8361 6.7061 6.2083 6.1600 5.7900 6.9500 -11 29 -45

M BONO381118 104,260 Nov-38 23.7 0.0 AAA 128.5479 117.9194 134.3520 1.0358 -4.5323 6.4023 6.2828 6.2000 5.8300 6.9600 -7 29 -45

M BONO421113 117,694 Nov-42 27.7 0.0 AAA 120.0351 109.1860 126.0760 1.3528 -4.5779 6.5078 6.4147 6.2300 5.8500 7.0000 -9 29 -45

Yield to M aturity (%)P rice ($ ) D P rice ($ ) D YT M (bp)

Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Relative Value Yield to Maturity Evolution

M1

50

61

8M

15

12

17

M1

60

61

6M

16

12

15

M1

71

21

4M

18

06

14

M1

81

21

3

M1

91

21

1M

200

61

1M

21

06

10

M2

20

60

9

M2

31

20

7M

24

12

05

M2

70

60

3

M2

90

53

1

M3

10

52

9

M3

41

12

3

M3

61

12

0

M3

81

11

8

M4

21

11

3

y = 0.8491ln(x) + 3.5935

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity (Years)

MBONOS

- 1 Month Actual

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2/1

/12

2/3

/12

2/5

/12

2/7

/12

2/9

/12

2/1

1/1

2

2/1

/13

2/3

/13

2/5

/13

2/7

/13

2/9

/13

2/1

1/1

3

2/1

/14

2/3

/14

2/5

/14

2/7

/14

2/9

/14

2/1

1/1

4

2/1

/15

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

M160616 (1.3) M231207 (8.8)M310529 (16.3) M421113 (27.7)

Change in Price ($ MXN) Change in Yield to Maturity (%)

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

M1

50

61

8

M1

51

21

7

M1

60

61

6

M1

61

21

5

M1

70

61

5

M1

71

21

4

M1

80

61

4

M1

81

21

3

M1

91

21

1

M2

00

61

1

M2

10

61

0

M2

20

60

9

M2

31

20

7

M2

41

20

5

M2

70

60

3

M2

90

53

1

M3

10

52

9

M3

41

12

3

M3

61

12

0

M3

81

11

8

M4

21

11

3

($p

es

os

) P

ric

e

-1 Quarter -1 Month Actual

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

M1

50

61

8

M1

51

21

7

M1

60

61

6

M1

61

21

5

M1

70

61

5

M1

71

21

4

M1

80

61

4

M1

81

21

3

M1

91

21

1

M2

00

61

1

M2

10

61

0

M2

20

60

9

M2

31

20

7

M2

41

20

5

M2

70

60

3

M2

90

53

1

M3

10

52

9

M3

41

12

3

M3

61

12

0

M3

81

11

8

M4

21

11

3

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

-1 Quarter -1 Month Actual Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Page 7: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

7

Sovereign Bonds in Pesos - UDIBONOS

Vo l. M at.

Issue P smn D ate Y-M D ur R tng. A ct. M in M ax 1wk 1mth 1q C urva A ct. M in M ax 1wk 1mth 1q

UDIBONO160616 161,007 Jun-16 1.3 0.0 AAA 556.8027 556.0166 561.8204 -0.1064 -1.3737 -4.8980 0.9229 0.9100 0.2300 1.0800 -1 -12 69

UDIBONO171214 106,105 Dec-17 2.8 0.0 AAA 561.0643 558.6608 566.5094 -0.1360 -3.6378 -3.6841 1.5090 1.2800 0.8400 1.4100 1 14 44

UDIBONO190613 70,065 Jun-19 4.3 0.0 AAA 574.6336 572.2302 582.6851 0.2762 -4.6609 -5.2362 1.8374 1.9000 1.5100 2.0000 -1 14 38

UDIBONO201210 90,327 Dec-20 5.8 0.0 AAA 537.1466 531.7257 545.7636 -0.6808 -6.8321 -3.2929 2.0666 2.2000 1.9000 2.3100 3 21 30

UDIBONO220609 113,809 Jun-22 7.3 0.0 AAA 515.6296 505.1952 522.9479 -1.1628 -3.8567 0.1900 2.2428 2.3600 2.1600 2.5800 4 10 17

UDIBONO251204 94,057 Dec-25 10.8 0.0 AAA 623.9752 606.1835 635.2655 0.6676 -7.8861 1.3379 2.5430 2.5900 2.4100 2.8900 -1 12 7

UDIBONO351122 114,910 Nov-35 20.8 0.0 AAA 642.1587 598.9733 664.4610 2.0333 -14.9184 19.9904 3.0455 3.1000 2.8700 3.5600 -2 15 -15

UDIBONO401115 231,061 Nov-40 25.7 0.0 AAA 601.8449 554.8408 625.1556 0.2181 -19.3041 23.2597 3.2107 3.2100 2.9900 3.6700 0 18 -17

UDIBONO461108 3,000 Nov-46 31.7 0.0 AAA 612.9666 557.4026 638.6891 1.3970 -21.0316 29.3034 3.3710 3.2000 2.9900 3.6800 -1 17 -20

P rice ($ ) D P rice ($ ) Yield to M aturity (%) D YT M (bp)

Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Relative Value Yield to Maturity Evolution

S160616

S171214

S190613

S201210

S220609

S251204

S351122

S401115

S461108

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

(%) Yield to Maturity

Maturity (Years)

UDIBONOS

- 1 Month Actual

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

2/1

/12

2/3

/12

2/5

/12

2/7

/12

2/9

/12

2/1

1/1

2

2/1

/13

2/3

/13

2/5

/13

2/7

/13

2/9

/13

2/1

1/1

3

2/1

/14

2/3

/14

2/5

/14

2/7

/14

2/9

/14

2/1

1/1

4

2/1

/15

(%)

Ye

ars

to

Ma

turi

ty

S160616 (1.3) S201210 (5.8)S251204 (10.8) S401115 (25.7)

Change in Price ($ MXN) Change in Yield to Maturity (%)

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

S1

60

61

6

S1

71

21

4

S1

90

61

3

S2

01

21

0

S2

20

60

9

S2

51

20

4

S3

51

12

2

S4

01

11

5

S4

61

10

8

($p

eso

s)

Pri

ce

-1 Quarter -1 Month Actual

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

S1

60

61

6

S1

71

21

4

S1

90

61

3

S2

01

21

0

S2

20

60

9

S2

51

20

4

S3

51

12

2

S4

01

11

5

S4

61

10

8

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

-1 Quarter -1 Month Actual Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Page 8: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

8

Sovereign Bonds in Dollars - UMS

Outs M at.

Issue M nP s D ate Y-M A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q C rve A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q

M EX 6.63% 2015 1,226 M ar-15 0.0 100.1 103.2 100.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.5 -5.36 -37.11 4.61 -37.11 -3916 -3666 -3732 -37.12 4.61 -37.12 -3619 -3368 -3435

M EX 11.38% 2016 1,586 Sep-16 1.6 116.4 122.9 116.0 -0.3 -0.9 -1.9 0.78 0.64 1.14 -0.48 -1 -4 -37 0.22 0.61 -0.91 -22 -30 -63

M EX 5.625% 2017 2,761 Jan-17 1.9 108.1 110.8 107.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 1.03 1.22 1.92 1.02 7 0 -6 0.66 1.31 0.33 -14 -28 -34

M EX 5.95% 2019 1,644 M ar-19 4.1 115.0 116.1 112.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 2.02 2.07 2.75 2.07 -26 -19 -25 0.83 1.45 0.72 -38 -45 -40

M EX 8.13% 2019 1,344 Dec-19 4.8 132.8 138.1 120.8 0.5 2.3 1.1 2.25 1.13 3.69 0.72 -12 -51 -48 -0.30 2.23 -1.15 -16 -71 -52

M EX 5.125% 2020 1,923 Jan-20 4.9 112.7 113.5 109.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.26 2.36 3.09 2.36 -22 -17 -26 0.91 1.55 0.71 -28 -40 -32

M EX 3.5% 2021 1,000 Jan-21 5.1 104.8 104.8 100.5 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.32 2.61 3.41 2.61 -28 -15 -29 1.00 1.70 0.77 -32 -39 -31

M EX 3.625% 2022 2,559 M ar-22 7.1 104.6 104.6 100.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 2.74 2.89 3.55 2.89 -19 -26 -19 1.11 1.72 0.82 -17 -47 -14

M EX 8% 2022 611 Sep-22 7.6 134.3 135.4 129.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 2.83 2.92 3.61 2.89 -14 -14 -25 1.10 1.70 0.68 -8 -31 -14

M EX 4% 2023 3,900 Oct-23 8.6 107.1 107.1 101.8 1.8 1.4 1.7 3.00 3.05 3.75 3.05 -24 -18 -24 1.16 1.78 0.91 -24 -41 -16

M EX 11.5% 2026 321 M ay-26 11.2 167.3 168.5 158.5 1.5 1.0 0.6 3.34 3.99 4.78 3.98 -13 -11 -14 1.99 2.68 1.49 -6 -29 3

M EX 8.3% 2031 1,158 Aug-31 16.5 153.3 154.8 143.5 1.8 0.0 1.6 3.84 3.89 4.55 3.81 -11 -1 -13 1.72 2.27 1.33 -7 -24 3

M EX 7.5% 2033 787 Apr-33 18.1 143.3 144.5 133.3 1.3 0.8 4.3 3.97 4.09 4.76 4.02 -8 -6 -29 1.88 2.43 1.39 -3 -27 -10

M EX 6.75% 2034 1,807 Sep-34 19.6 135.8 136.5 125.3 3.3 1.5 5.3 4.07 4.08 4.76 4.04 -20 -10 -35 1.82 2.39 1.55 -14 -30 -14

M EX 6.05% 2040 3,317 Jan-40 24.9 125.4 128.6 116.3 2.4 0.4 3.0 4.38 4.37 4.91 4.19 -14 -2 -18 1.95 2.38 1.46 4 -14 16

M EX 4.75% 2044 4,463 M ar-44 29.0 107.3 109.4 98.0 3.6 1.4 3.8 4.58 4.31 4.88 4.19 -21 -8 -22 1.77 2.21 1.27 5 -11 23

M EX 5.55% 2045 3,000 Jan-45 29.9 119.1 121.5 109.5 3.5 1.1 3.6 4.62 4.39 4.94 4.27 -19 -6 -20 1.82 2.25 1.36 11 -7 29

M EX 5.75% 2110 2,678 Oct-10 95.7 113.1 115.5 101.0 4.1 2.1 5.5 6.12 5.08 5.69 4.97 -19 -10 -26 2.51 3.00 2.02 20 -1 32

D Spread/ T sry(bp)YT M (%)P rice ($ ) Spread/ T ry(%)D P rice ($ ) D YT M (bp)

Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Relative Value Analysis Change in Price ($ USD)

ME

X 6

.63%

201

5

ME

X

11

.38

% 2

01

6M

EX

5

.62

5%

20

17

ME

X

5.9

5%

20

19

ME

X 8

.13%

201

9M

EX

5

.12

5%

20

20

ME

X

3.5

% 2

02

1

ME

X 3

.62

5%

20

22

ME

X

8%

20

22

ME

X

5.1

25

% 2

02

0

ME

X 1

1.5

% 2

02

6

ME

X

8.3

% 2

03

1

ME

X

7.5

% 2

03

3

ME

X

6.7

5%

20

34

ME

X

6.0

5%

20

40

ME

X

4.7

5%

20

44

ME

X

5.5

5%

20

45

y = 1.298ln(x) + 0.2046

-40.00

-35.00

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

-

5.00

10.00

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Years to Maturity

UMS

-1 Week

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0M

EX

6.6

3%

20

15

ME

X 1

1.3

8%

201

6

ME

X 5

.625%

201

7

ME

X 5

.95

% 2

01

9

ME

X 8

.13

% 2

01

9

ME

X 5

.125

% 2

02

0

ME

X 3

.5%

2021

ME

X 3

.625

% 2

02

2

ME

X 8

% 2

02

2

ME

X 4

% 2

02

3

ME

X 1

1.5

% 2

02

6

ME

X 8

.3%

203

1

ME

X 7

.5%

203

3

ME

X 6

.75

% 2

03

4

ME

X 6

.05

% 2

04

0

ME

X 4

.75

% 2

04

4

ME

X 5

.55

% 2

04

5

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

11

0

($U

SD

) P

rice C

han

ge

1 Week 1 Month 1 Quar ter

Change in Yield to Maturity (bp) Change in Spread / Treasury (bp)

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

01

5

ME

X 1

1.3

8%

201

6

ME

X 5

.625

% 2

01

7

ME

X 5

.95

% 2

01

9

ME

X 8

.13

% 2

01

9

ME

X 5

.125%

202

0

ME

X 3

.5%

2021

ME

X 3

.625%

202

2

ME

X 8

% 2

02

2

ME

X 4

% 2

02

3

ME

X 1

1.5

% 2

02

6

ME

X 8

.3%

203

1

ME

X 7

.5%

203

3

ME

X 6

.75

% 2

03

4

ME

X 6

.05

% 2

04

0

ME

X 4

.75

% 2

04

4

ME

X 5

.55

% 2

04

5

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

11

0

(bp

) Y

TM

C

ha

ng

e

1 Week 1 Month 1 Quar ter

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

01

5

ME

X 1

1.3

8%

201

6

ME

X 5

.625

% 2

01

7

ME

X 5

.95

% 2

01

9

ME

X 8

.13

% 2

01

9

ME

X 5

.125

% 2

02

0

ME

X 3

.5%

202

1

ME

X 3

.625

% 2

02

2

ME

X 8

% 2

02

2

ME

X 4

% 2

02

3

ME

X 1

1.5

% 2

02

6

ME

X 8

.3%

203

1

ME

X 7

.5%

2033

ME

X 6

.75

% 2

03

4

ME

X 6

.05

% 2

04

0

ME

X 4

.75

% 2

04

4

ME

X 5

.55

% 2

04

5

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

11

0

(bp

) S

pre

ad

Ch

an

ge

1 Week 1 Month 1 Quar ter

Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Page 9: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

9

Quasi-Sovereign Bonds in Dollars – PEMEX and CFE Outs M at.

Issue M nP s D ate Y-M A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q C rve A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q A ct. M ax M in 1 wk 1 mth 1 q

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A nd nd nd nd #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

PEM EX 5.75% 2015 - Dec-15 0.8 nd 109.2 100.9 nd nd nd 1.32 nd 330.87 -1.52 nd nd nd nd 330.85 -1.75 nd nd nd

PEM EX 10.61% 2017 125 Aug-17 2.5 111.8 114.4 111.0 -0.1 0.5 -1.1 2.73 5.45 5.93 4.94 1 -36 1 4.71 5.30 4.12 -379 -426 -386

PEM EX 5.75% 2018 2,484 M ar-18 3.0 109.5 112.2 107.3 0.6 1.5 -0.5 2.97 2.43 3.31 2.04 -22 -58 -9 1.45 2.27 0.81 -37 -86 -32

PEM EX 9.25% 2018 107 M ar-18 3.1 122.4 124.1 118.2 0.0 -1.0 3.0 3.01 1.76 3.39 1.58 -5 12 -132 0.76 2.26 0.57 -19 -14 -153

PEM EX 3.5% 2018 1,000 Jul-18 3.4 103.2 105.1 100.0 -0.6 1.0 -0.6 3.12 2.52 3.49 2.04 17 -33 12 1.45 2.30 0.79 2 -62 -10

PEM EX 9.15% 2018 181 Nov-18 3.7 113.7 116.1 111.4 0.0 0.5 -0.9 3.24 5.08 5.77 4.76 -1 -21 3 3.96 4.61 3.59 -295 -330 -296

PEM EX 3.125% 2019 3 Jan-19 3.9 100.8 104.2 100.6 0.0 0.1 -1.3 3.30 2.92 2.96 2.13 0 -4 31 1.72 1.98 0.63 -14 -33 12

PEM EX 8% 2019 1,937 M ay-19 4.2 120.2 124.0 116.7 1.1 1.1 -0.6 3.38 2.82 3.83 2.51 -27 -34 -11 1.55 2.47 0.95 -37 -58 -23

PEM EX 6% 2020 995 M ar-20 5.0 113.3 115.9 109.5 0.2 0.5 -0.6 3.61 3.10 3.95 2.87 -5 -14 -1 1.63 2.34 1.13 -10 -36 -6

PEM EX 5.5% 2021 2,962 Jan-21 5.9 108.4 112.8 105.7 -0.7 0.0 -2.6 3.82 3.89 4.42 3.27 11 -2 40 2.27 2.71 1.36 10 -23 40

CFELEC 4.875% 2021 1,000 M ay-21 6.2 107.7 108.3 105.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 3.89 3.48 3.96 3.44 -5 1 -5 1.81 2.20 1.44 -6 -20 -2

PEM EX 4.875% 2022 2,091 Jan-22 6.9 105.8 109.1 101.4 0.5 1.6 0.0 4.01 3.91 4.64 3.47 -9 -28 -2 2.13 3.00 1.31 -5 -47 5

PEM EX 8.63% 2022 160 Feb-22 6.9 120.2 128.3 114.0 0.0 2.0 -5.8 4.02 5.12 6.14 4.08 -1 -34 76 3.34 4.49 1.98 7 -49 87

PEM EX 3.5% 2023 2,100 Jan-23 7.9 96.8 99.4 92.3 0.6 1.8 -0.6 4.18 3.97 4.65 3.58 -9 -27 11 2.13 2.72 1.25 -8 -50 16

PEM EX 8.63% 2023 107 Dec-23 8.8 121.5 126.0 120.0 0.0 -2.4 -3.5 4.31 5.49 5.74 5.02 -1 28 38 3.60 3.75 2.50 6 11 52

CFELEC 4.875% 2024 1,250 Jan-24 8.9 106.1 108.0 102.8 0.9 0.5 -0.1 4.33 4.05 4.49 3.85 -13 -7 -1 2.15 2.50 1.49 -11 -29 9

PEM EX 4.875% 2024 1,499 Jan-24 8.9 105.4 109.0 100.3 0.6 1.4 -1.1 4.33 4.14 4.83 3.73 -8 -18 12 2.24 2.76 1.34 -6 -40 22

PEM EX 9.5% 2027 219 Sep-27 12.6 133.8 140.3 128.0 1.4 -3.8 -1.2 4.76 5.69 6.27 5.20 -14 33 7 3.64 4.12 2.63 -8 13 23

PEM EX 6.63% 2035 2,749 Jun-35 20.3 114.6 123.7 108.8 2.1 0.0 -2.6 5.36 5.43 5.88 4.81 -16 -1 18 3.14 3.47 2.05 -6 -18 42

PEM EX 6.63% 2038 491 Jun-38 23.3 111.5 122.8 110.5 1.0 -1.5 -3.6 5.53 5.72 5.80 4.98 -7 11 25 3.35 3.58 1.99 10 -1 58

PEM EX 6.5% 2041 3,000 Jun-41 26.3 112.4 123.0 107.8 0.5 -1.1 -3.4 5.68 5.59 5.91 4.94 -4 7 22 3.13 3.47 1.95 20 2 63

CFELEC 5.75% 2042 750 Feb-42 27.0 110.3 111.3 103.4 1.2 -0.2 2.4 5.71 5.05 5.51 4.99 -8 1 -15 2.57 2.91 1.98 16 -4 26

PEM EX 5.5% 2044 2,745 Jun-44 29.4 101.0 109.0 95.8 -1.0 0.5 -1.7 5.82 5.43 5.80 4.92 7 -3 11 2.88 3.31 1.79 38 -3 61

PEM EX 6.375% 2045 0 Jan-45 29.9 112.2 121.8 109.3 1.9 -0.7 -3.3 5.84 5.54 5.73 4.98 -12 4 20 2.97 3.37 1.84 21 7 72

PEM EX 6.375% 2045 0 Jan-45 29.9 112.2 121.8 109.3 1.9 -0.7 -3.3 5.84 5.54 5.73 4.98 -12 4 20 2.97 3.37 1.84 21 7 72

P rice ($ ) D P rice ($ ) D YT M (bp)YT M (%) Spread/ T ry(%) D Spread/ T sry(bp)

Relative Value Analysis Change in Price ($ USD)

PEM

EX 5

.75

% 2

015

PEM

EX 1

0.6

1%

20

17P

EMEX

5.7

5%

201

8P

EMEX

9.2

5%

201

8

PEM

EX 3

.5%

20

18P

EMEX

9.1

5%

201

8 PEM

EX 3

.12

5%

20

19P

EMEX

8%

20

19

PEM

EX 6

% 2

02

0P

EMEX

5.5

% 2

021

CFE

LEC

4.8

75

% 2

021

PEM

EX 4

.87

5%

20

22P

EMEX

8.6

3%

202

2

PEM

EX 3

.5%

20

23

PEM

EX 8

.63

% 2

023

CFE

LEC

4.8

75

% 2

024

PEM

EX 4

.87

5%

20

24

PEM

EX 9

.5%

20

27

PEM

EX 6

.63

% 2

035

PEM

EX 6

.63

% 2

038

PEM

EX 6

.5%

20

41C

FELE

C 5

.75

% 2

042

PEM

EX 5

.5%

20

44P

EMEX

6.3

75

% 2

045

PEM

EX 6

.37

5%

20

45

y = 1.2495ln(x) + 1.5964

y = 0.0984x + 3.0274

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

- 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 24.0 28.0 32.0

(%)

Yiel

d t

o M

atu

rity

Years to Maturity

PEMEX and CFE

-1 Week Actual Lineal (PEMEX 8% 2019)

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0#

N/A

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

015

PE

ME

X 1

0.6

1% 2

01

7

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 9

.25

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

2018

PE

ME

X 9

.15

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.12

5% 2

01

9

PE

ME

X 8

% 2

019

PE

ME

X 6

% 2

020

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

2021

CF

EL

EC

4.8

75

% 2

021

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

2

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

022

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

2023

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

023

CF

EL

EC

4.8

75

% 2

024

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

4

PE

ME

X 9

.5%

2027

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

035

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

038

PE

ME

X 6

.5%

2041

CF

EL

EC

5.7

5%

20

42

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

2044

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

($U

SD

) P

ric

e C

ha

ng

e

1 Week 1 Month 1 Quarter

Change in Yield to Maturity (bp) Change in Spread / Treasury (bp)

Page 10: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

10

y = 1.2043x - 24.651

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

#N

/A

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

015

PE

ME

X 1

0.6

1% 2

01

7

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 9

.25

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

2018

PE

ME

X 9

.15

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.12

5% 2

01

9

PE

ME

X 8

% 2

019

PE

ME

X 6

% 2

020

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

2021

CF

EL

EC

4.8

75

% 2

021

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

2

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

022

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

2023

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

023

CF

EL

EC

4.8

75%

2024

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

4

PE

ME

X 9

.5%

2027

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

035

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

038

PE

ME

X 6

.5%

2041

CF

EL

EC

5.7

5%

20

42

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

2044

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

(bp

) YT

M C

han

ge

1 Week

y = 9.269x - 139.6

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

#N

/A

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

015

PE

ME

X 1

0.6

1% 2

01

7

PE

ME

X 5

.75

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 9

.25

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

20

18

PE

ME

X 9

.15

% 2

018

PE

ME

X 3

.12

5% 2

01

9

PE

ME

X 8

% 2

019

PE

ME

X 6

% 2

020

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

20

21

CF

EL

EC

4.8

75%

202

1

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

2

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

022

PE

ME

X 3

.5%

20

23

PE

ME

X 8

.63

% 2

023

CF

ELE

C 4

.875

% 2

024

PE

ME

X 4

.87

5% 2

02

4

PE

ME

X 9

.5%

20

27

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

035

PE

ME

X 6

.63

% 2

038

PE

ME

X 6

.5%

20

41

CF

EL

EC

5.7

5% 2

04

2

PE

ME

X 5

.5%

20

44

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

PE

ME

X 6

.37

5% 2

04

5

(bp

) S

pre

ad

Ch

an

ge

1 Week

Source: Actinver, Valmer.

Page 11: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

11

MXP - Bonds Detail

Page 12: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

12

UNSECURED ISSUES – RELATIVE VALUE

AM

X10

PC

AR

FM

12

DA

IMLE

R14

HO

LC

IM12

-2B

NP

ME

X1

1

AC

11

CA

TF

IN12

KIM

BE

R07

VW

LE

AS

E1

3-2

VW

BA

NK

12

HO

LC

IM14

CA

TF

IN14

VW

LE

AS

E14

-2

VW

BA

NK

14

FU

NO

13

TO

YO

TA

14

GAP15

TLE

VIS

A14

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

(%) S

pre

ad

Maturity

TIIE28 / AAA

GASN11-2

GCARSO12

BACHOCO12

y = 0.0235ln(x) + 0.23940.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / AA+

MOLYMET10

GBM13-3

IDEAL11-2

TCM10

MO

LY

ME

T1

2

INCARSO12

LAB13-2

GBM14-2

MO

LY

ME

T1

3-2

LA

B13

INCARSO13

HERDEZ13-2

GBM14HERDEZ14

MONTPIO14

DHIC14

LAB14

y = 0.1542ln(x) + 0.5023

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / AA

FORD14

MFRISCO13

FORD14-2

CULTIBA13

y = 1.1191ln(x) - 0.6918

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / AA-

MO

NE

X12 C

RE

AL12

KU

O10

ELE

KT

RA

14-2

EL

EK

TR

A1

4C

RE

AL13

-2

ELE

KTR

A13

INV

EX

13

CR

EA

L14

MO

NE

X14

CS

BA

NC

O14-

2

AC

TIN

VR

14

AC

TIN

VR

13

ALSEA13

INVEX13-2

KUO12

y = 0.0221ln(x) + 1.5368

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE28 / A

CSBANCO14

RCENTRO14

y = 0.9057ln(x) + 1.612

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

2.85

2.90

2.95

3.00

3.05

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / A-

GFAMSA14

CIE13

y = 0.1279ln(x) + 2.595

2.58

2.60

2.62

2.64

2.66

2.68

2.70

2.72

2.74

2.76

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / BBB

VALARRE11

VALARRE12

VALARRE12-2

VALARRE13

y = 2.4

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

CETE182 / A+

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Maturity = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 13: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

13

UNSECURED ISSUES – RELATIVE VALUE

KIM

BE

R0

9-2

AR

CA

09-3

AR

CA

09

-5

AM

X0

7-3

HIC

OA

M0

7A

MX

08

TE

LM

EX

08

LIV

EP

OL

08

HO

LC

IM1

2-3

AM

X0

61

9 KIM

BE

R0

9-4

AM

X1

0-2

FA

CIL

SA

13-2

LIV

EP

OL

10

TL

EV

ISA

10

AR

CA

10

GP

RO

FU

T1

1K

OF

11

-2

AC

11-2

LIV

EP

OL

12-2

IEN

OV

A1

3A

C1

3-2

KO

F1

3

KIM

BE

R1

3

FU

NO

13

-2

FE

RR

OM

X1

4 AM

X0

62

4GA

P15

-2

y = 1.2064ln(x) + 4.1047

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

(%) YTM

Maturity

FIXED / AAA

HERDEZ10

GASN11

IBDROLA08

SIGMA08

BIMBO12

TELFIM10

OMA14

ME

XC

HE

M1

2

MO

LY

ME

T1

3

OMA13

HE

RD

EZ

13

y = 1.5464ln(x) + 4.0582

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

FIXED / AA

FEMSA07ULIVEPOL10U

AMX10U

FUNO13U

y = 1.8232ln(x) - 0.0459

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AAA

BIMBO09U

SIGMA08U

y = 0.8754ln(x) + 1.6139

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AA

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Maturity = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 14: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

14

SECURED ISSUES – RELATIVE VALUE

FICCB08-2

GDFCB10

GDFCB06

VTOSCB13

GDFCB07-2

EXITUCB13UNIFCB12

DALTOCB13

EDUCACB13

ARRENCB13

CLEASCB14

UNFINCB13

CREDICB14

FINAECB15

IFHGO07

ARRENCB14TIPCB14

FICCB09

y = 0.2927ln(x) + 1.0214

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE28 / AAAPLANFCB13

FID

EP

CB

14

PLANFCB14

VIVACB15

XIGNUX14

EDONL06TMMCB10

CHIACB07

y = -0.567ln(x) + 2.5358

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE28 / AA

NEMAK07

DINEXCB12

VINTE14

IJETCB12

IJETCB13

IJETCB14

y = 1.6321ln(x) - 0.9979

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / AA-

VINTE11-2

CADU12

VINTE12

DOCUFOR12

GDINIZ12CIOSA12

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

TIIE28 / A

FREZAC05

CPACCB04

VERACB12-2

y = 0.529ln(x) + 0.0693

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE91 / AA

TUCACCB08

VRZCB06

y = 0.0777ln(x) + 0.3719

0.60

0.60

0.60

0.60

0.61

0.61

0.61

0.61

18.50 19.00 19.50 20.00 20.50 21.00 21.50 22.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE182 / AA

EDONL03 EDONL03-2

y = 0.0152ln(x) + 1.0388

0.42

0.52

0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

1.02

1.12

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

CETE182 / AA

GD

FC

B0

5

GDFCB10-2

GD

FE

CB

13

GD

FE

CB

14

RCO12

GD

FE

CB

12

CH

IHC

B1

3

OAXACA13RCO14

PR

OIN

10

PA

SA

CB

11 PASACB12

FICCB08

y = 1.2801ln(x) + 4.0126

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

FIXED / AAA

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Maturity = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 15: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

15

SECURED ISSUES – RELATIVE VALUE

XIGNUX07

XIGNUX13

ACOSTCB07

VERACB12

SIPYTCB13

GHOCB14

DOIHICB13

MAYACB12

y = 1.2593ln(x) + 5.141

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

FIXED / AA

FICCB09U

PLANRIO05U CO

NC

EC

B06U

LPSLCB14U

PA

SA

CB

11

U

RCO12U

FICCB08U

LPSLCB14-2U

PAMMCB14U

y = 1.8168ln(x) - 0.15360.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AAA

MATCB05U

CHIACB07UVERACB12U

CHIHCB13UTENIXCB14U

y = 2.264ln(x) - 2.3694

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AA+

VIADI06UGANACB11U

PSBCB12U

ZONALCB06U

VR

ZC

B0

6U

OA

XC

B0

7U

MICHCB07U

y = 1.1026ln(x) + 1.4012

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AA

VRZCB06U

CAMSSCB13U

LIPSBCB14U

AMCCB13U

PAMMSCB14U

y = 4.3997ln(x) - 9.26443.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AA-

CARDLCB10U

MYCTA04U

ZONALCB06-2U

VRZCB08U

CASCB11U

y = 0.1148ln(x) + 4.9477

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / A

PLANRIO05-2U

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / BBB

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Maturity = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

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16

QUASI-SOVEREIGN ISSUES – RELATIVE VALUE

FE

FA

12

FE

FA

12

-2

FE

FA

13

PE

ME

X1

1

FN

CO

T13

PE

ME

X11-2

FE

FA

14

FN

CO

T14

PE

ME

X12

CF

E1

3

PE

ME

X13

CFE14PEMEX14

y = 0.0569ln(x) + 0.0417

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE28 / AAA / UNSECURED

CF

EG

CB

11

CF

EC

B10

CF

EG

CB

13

IFCOTCB13

CFECB10-2

y = 0.0897ln(x) - 0.015

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

(%)

Sp

read

Maturity

TIIE28 / AAA / SECURED

CFECB05

CF

EC

B0

6

CF

EC

B0

6-2 CFECB07

CFEHCB08

y = 0.014ln(x) + 0.4561

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

CETE91 / AAA / SECURED

CF

EH

CB

07

CF

EH

CB

07-2

CF

EH

CB

07-3

y = 0.902ln(x) - 0.4218

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

(%)

Sp

rea

d

Maturity

CETE182 / AAA / SECURED

PEMEX09-2

PE

ME

X10

-2

CF

E10

-2

PE

ME

X11

-3

PE

ME

X13-2

CF

E1

3-2

CFE14-2

PEMEX14-2

y = 1.394ln(x) + 3.849

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

FIXED / AAA / UNSECURED

CFEHCB09CFECB09

CFEHCB06

CFECB12

y = 1.1179ln(x) + 3.2532

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

FIXED / AAA / SECURED

PEMEX09U

PEMEX10U

PEMEX11U

PEMEX14U

PEMEX12U

y = 0.6576ln(x) + 1.9376

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AAA / UNSECURED

CFEHCB09U

CFECB09U

CFECB09-2U

y = 1.704ln(x) - 0.7781

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

(%)

YT

M

Maturity

UDIS / AAA / SECURED

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Maturity = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

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17

CORPORATE ISSUES – DETAILED INFORMATION

TIIE28 / AAA Local Rating / Unsecured

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Y-M = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 18: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

18

TIIE28 / AAA Local Rating / Secured

TIIE28 / AA+ Local Rating / Unsecured

TIIE28 / AA+ Local Rating / Secured

TIIE28 / AA Local Rating / Unsecured

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Y-M = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 19: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

19

TIIE28 / AA Local Rating / Secured

TIIE28 / AA- Local Rating / Unsecured

TIIE28 / AA- Local Rating / Secured

TIIE28 / A Local Rating / Unsecured

TIIE28 / A Local Rating / Secured

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Y-M = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 20: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

20

TIIE28 / A- Local Rating / Unsecured

TIIE28 / BBB Local Rating / Unsecured

TIIE28 / BBB Local Rating / Secured

TIIE91 / AAA Local Rating / Secured

TIIE91 / AA Local Rating / Secured

TIIE182 / AA- Local Rating / Secured

TIIE182 / A+ Local Rating / Secured

CETE182 / AA Local Rating / Unsecured

Source: Actinver / Valmer. Y-M = Years to maturity. Information as of June 26, 2014.

Page 21: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

21

USD – Fixed Rate Bonds Detail

Page 22: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

22

MXN CORPORATES IN DOLARS – RELATIVE VALUE

BB

VA

SM

'16

AM

XL

MM

'1

6

AM

XLM

M '

17

KO

F '1

8A

MXLM

M '19

KO

F '2

0A

MXLM

M '20

AM

XLM

M '22

KO

F '2

3

AM

XLM

M '

35

AM

XL

MM

'3

7

AM

XL

MM

'4

0

AM

XL

MM

'4

2

KO

F '4

3BB

VA

SM

'24

KCMA '24

y = 0.8534ln(x) + 1.1993

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

A- / Fixed Rate

TE

LV

IS '1

8

BS

AN

TM

'22

TE

LV

IS '2

5

TELVIS '32

TELVIS '40

BIN

BU

R '2

4

y = 1.309ln(x) + 0.8009

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

BBB+ / Fixed Rate

BA

NO

RT

'15

BIM

BO

'20

BIM

BO

'22

FRES '23

BIM

BO

A '2

4

FUNO '24SCCO '28

MEXGEN '32

FUNO '44

BIMBOA '44

y = 1.132ln(x) + 1.6062

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

BBB- / Fixed Rate

SIG

MA

'18

SIG

MA

'19

AL

PE

KA

'22

AL

PE

KA

'23

ALF

AA

'24 A

LF

AA

'44

MXC

HF

'44

y = 1.5128ln(x) + 0.8507

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

BBB- / Fixed Rate

MA

BE

MX '15

MABEMX '19

MX

CH

F '1

9

MX

CH

F '2

2

METLSA '23MXCHF '42

y = 0.8367ln(x) + 3.2549

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

BB+ / Fixed Rate

CREAL '15

CREAL '19

OFDMEX '20

KUOBMM '22

ODHGPR '20

NEMAK '23

y = 1.6186ln(x) + 4.3064

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%) Y

ield

to

Matu

rity

Maturity

BB / Fixed Rate

TZA '18EKT '18

ARRUNI '19IDESA '20

TZA '20

y = 2.2302ln(x) + 3.7248

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

BB- / Fixed Rate

CE

ME

X '1

5E

ZP

W '1

5

CE

ME

X '1

6

CE

ME

X '1

8

CE

ME

X '1

9C

EM

EX

'19 C

EM

EX '1

9S

CR

IBE

'20

CE

ME

X '2

0C

EM

EX

'21 J

AV

ER

'21

CE

ME

X '2

2

FIN

DE

P '1

9

y = 1.2886ln(x) + 4.7684

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

B+ / Fixed Rate

Source: Actinver / Bloomberg as of June 26, 2014. Maturity = Years to maturity.

Page 23: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

23

MXN CORPORATES IN DOLARS – RELATIVE VALUE

PAPPEL '16

ICA

SA

'17

PO

SA

DA

'17

AXTEL '20

GC

CA

MM

'20

FA

MS

A '2

0

ICA

SA

'21

ICA

SA

'24

y = 2.1578ln(x) + 7.8632

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

B / Fixed Rate

MIFEL '22

COBREM '18

y = -1.19ln(x) + 14.334

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

(%) Yie

ld to

Matu

rity

Maturity

B- / Fixed Rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

CCC / Fixed Rate

MAXTEL '20

GEOMAQ '21

y = 1356.7ln(x) - 2249.5

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

CC / Fixed Rate

HOMEX '15

HOMEX '19

HOMEX '20

AXTEL '17 AXTEL '19

y = -705.6ln(x) + 1083.4

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00

1,800.00

2,000.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

C / Fixed Rate

URBIMM '16

UR

BIM

M '2

0

CO

RG

EO

'20

UR

BIM

M '2

2C

OR

GE

O '2

2

y = -59.93ln(x) + 314.21

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

(%)

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Maturity

D / Fixed Rate

Source: Actinver / Bloomberg as of June 26, 2014. Maturity = Years to maturity.

Page 24: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

24

Disclaimer

Analyst Certification:

Ernesto O’Farrill

Ismael Capistrán

Araceli Espinosa

Jesús Viveros

Mauricio Arellano

Jaime Ascencio

Roberto Galván

The analyst(s) responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on any of the securities or issuers mentioned in this document, as well as any views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s). No part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this document. This is a publication of Grupo Financiero Actinver and any content of the document cannot be distributed or copied without Grupo Financiero Actinver’s authorization. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Grupo Financiero Actinver or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively Actinver) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. The analysts mentioned will not be responsible for investment decisions taken by clients or for any legal procedures.

Any of the business units of Grupo Actinver or its affiliates may seek to do business with any company discussed in this research document. Any past or potential future compensation received by Grupo Actinver or any of its affiliates from any issuer mentioned in this report has not had and will not have any effect our analysts’ compensation. However, as for any other employee of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates, our analysts’ compensation is affected by the overall profitability of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates.

Analyst Certification for the following Analysts: Jaime Ascencio

Iñigo Cossio

Marco Montañez

Roberto Galván

Ramón Ortiz

Francisco Suárez

Eric Alexander Wilson, CFA

The analyst(s) responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on any of the securities or issuers mentioned in this document, as well as any views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s). No part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this document.

Any of the business units of Grupo Actinver or its affiliates may seek to do business with any company discussed in this research document. Any past or potential future compensation received by Grupo Actinver or any of its affiliates from any issuer mentioned in this report has not had and will not have any effect our analysts’ compensation. However, as for any other employee of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates, our analysts’ compensation is affected by the overall profitability of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates.

Guide to our Rating Methodology

Total Expected Return on any security under coverage includes dividends and/or other forms of wealth distribution expected to be

implemented by the issuers, in addition to the expected stock price appreciation or depreciation over the next twelve months based on our analysts’ price targets. Analysts uses a wide variety of methods to calculate price targets that, among others, include

Page 25: d MEXICAN BOND MARKET OVERVIEW n) 000 3 88 000Weekly … · to last month. For its part, Mexican CEMBI reported a 256 bp spread, 2bp higher vs. last week and 4 bp higher vs. last

25

Investment, Strategy & Research

Ernesto O’Farrill Director (52) 55 1103-6645 [email protected]

Quantitative Research

Ismael Capistrán Head Quantitative Research & Economics (52) 55 1103-6600 x1487

[email protected]

Jaime Ascencio Economic Research (52) 55 1103-6600

x5032 [email protected]

Roberto Galván Technical Analysis (52) 55 1103 -6600 x5039 [email protected]

Santiago Hernandez Quantitative Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x4133

[email protected]

Fixed Income

Araceli Espinosa Head Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6641

[email protected]

Jesús Viveros Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6649

[email protected]

Mauricio Arellano Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x4132

[email protected]

Equity

Gustavo Terán , CFA Head Equity Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x1193 [email protected]

Martín Lara Telecoms, Media & Financials (52) 55 1103-6600

x1840 [email protected]

Carlos Hermosillo Food, Beverage & Commercial (52) 55 1103-6600

x4134 [email protected]

Ramón Ortiz Cement, Concessions & Construction (52) 55 1103-6600

x1835 [email protected]

Federico Robinson Conglomerates, Industrial & Mining (52) 55 1103-6600

x4127 [email protected]

Pablo Duarte Real Estate (52) 55 1103-6600 x4334 [email protected]

Sales & Trading

Eduardo Estrada Head, Trading Mexico (52) 55 1103-6723 [email protected]

Antonio Lau Trading US (713) 337 - 4932 [email protected]

Julie Roberts Head, Institutional Sales US (210) 298 - 5371 [email protected]

Domingo Díaz Head Institutional Sales Mexico (52) 55 1103-6797 [email protected]