d to cocorahs · d to cocorahs r k r series y 26, 2015 nts board. t nts board. ojections...
TRANSCRIPT
The Need for International Weather Dataand Related Products at the
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Presented to
CoCoRaHS Weather Talk Webinar Series
February 26, 2015
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
WASDE Report
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator
OCE Chief Economist
Secretary/Deputy Secretary
USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure
WAOB Chairperson
Grains OilseedsLivestock Fibers Specialty Crops
Interagency Commodity Estimates CommitteesChaired by WAOB Senior Analysts
Chief MeteorologistUSDA Contingent
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
USDA/JAWF’S Main Responsibilities
• Routinely collect global agricultural weather information to determine the cumulative impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects;
• Provide information on weather-related agricultural developments to the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture;
• Publish the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin; and
• Provide crop-weather assessments for WAOB’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report.
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY
U.S. Dept. of AgricultureNational Oceanic &
Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental
Prediction
Office of the Chief Economist
National AgriculturalStatistics Service
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Global Weather DataInternational
CropInformation
DomesticCrop
Statistics
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
World Agricultural Outlook Board
AgriculturalStatistics Board
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: USDA
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: USDA
Price Impact of 2008 Argentina Drought
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Soybean prices up 40 to 50 percent:U.S. acreage up 1.5 million acres from intentions
Soaking rains to benefit Brazil coffee, sugar cane, grain crops ‐ RTRS
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Rain fosters soy and corn crops in Argentina ‐meteorologist ‐ RTRS
Higher-than-normal temperature in north China favorable for wintering of wheat - XINHUN
UPDATE 1‐Cyclone threatens over 10 pct of Australian sugarcane ‐industry body ‐ RTRS
Sampling of Press Report Headlines - February 2015
Hailstorm damages upto 20% wheat crops in Shahkot, Nakodar ‐ HINDUT
+ many others regarding weather impacts in other parts of the world
23‐Feb‐2015 11:05 ‐MOROCCO COULD HARVEST RECORD CEREAL CROP ABOVE 10 MLN TONNES THIS YEAR AFTER FAVOURABLE RAINS ‐ FARM MINISTRY OFFICIAL
WMO Synoptic and Metar Observations
NWS
NCEP
USDA CPCProducts
Weather Data
• Weather has a significant impact on crop development from pre-planting to harvesting.
• Weather events must be closely monitored in all crop areas as each crop is affected differently by heat, drought and other weather and climate extremes during the growing season.
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
1 United Nations World Meteorological Organization
Location of weather stations received daily via the WMO1
* Random sampling of available daily weather data
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
* Most have data since at least 1982(many with normals)
WMO (~70) Rain Gauge (900+)
Data obtained by CPC from the Mexican weather bureau are incorporated into the weekly rainfall chart created for the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and are provided separately to USDA analysts for their
analysis of crop weather impacts.
Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Secondary sources of weather data
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Weekly Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010
(WMO)
Weekly Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010
(Mexican Rain Gauge)
The maps above highlight the differences that arise using WMO data, which are sparse in coverage, versus the supplemental rain gauge data, which provides a denser network of stations and a better
representation of rainfall.
0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm
25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm
0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm
25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm
Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Secondary sources of weather data
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Comparison with other sources of information, including satellite derived estimates (CMORPH), support the rain gauge analysis.
0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm
25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm
Weekly Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010
(Mexican Rain Gauge)
Estimated Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010
(CMORPH)
Lower (1-10 mm) Higher (~ 200 mm) Highest (> 400 mm)
Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Validation using existing GIS products
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Higher
Yields*Average (2005/06-09/10)
IntensityProductionLower
*Source: SAGPyA
* Corn Yields
Stations in “Main Crop Area”
BuenosAiresLa Pampa
EntreRios
SantaFe
Cordoba
Chaco
Santiagodel
Estero
SanLuis
Salta
Corrientes
Form.
Tu.
BuenosAiresLa Pampa
EntreRios
SantaFe
Cordoba
Chaco
Santiagodel
Estero
SanLuis
Salta
Corrientes
Form.
Tu.
* Soybean Yields
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
2014/15
Average
2009/10 2006/07
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MT/HA Argentina Corn Yield Actual vs. Forecast
Fcst Actual MinAg Yield
Min Ag Yield f(trend, 2012 Dummy, Dec‐Jan Avg Temp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp^2
2014 Forecast: 8.53 MT/HA, SE: 0.37
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Major
Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: MINAG / IBGE
Soybean ProductionBrazil and Paraguay
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & ParaguayPlanting
HarvestingFill
FlowerRio Grande
do Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
Para
Rondonia
Paraguay
Cr: Subtropical RainAw: Tropical wet and dry
Soy: ~40%1st Corn: ~50%
Soy: ~60%1st Corn: ~50%
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
0123456789
Jul
-01
Jul
-23
Aug
-14
Sep
-05
Sep
-27
Oct
-19
Nov
-10
Dec
-02
Dec
-24
Jan
-15
Feb
-06
Feb
-28
Mar
-22
Apr
-13
May
-05
May
-27
Jun
-18
Parana MTAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
April 8
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Met
ric T
ons
Per H
ecta
re (m
T/ha
)
Mato Grosso*2nd Crop Corn Yields
Observed Predicted
2011: Above-normal rainfall, then early end to season
2nd crop yield: 4.02 mT/ha (down 15.5%)
April 8
Source: IBGE/CONAB
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Met
ric T
ons
Per H
ecta
re (m
T/ha
)
Mato Grosso*2nd Crop Corn Yields
Observed Predicted
2012: Near-normal rainfall, then unusual May / June rainfall
2nd crop yield: 5.70 mT/ha (up 15.5%)
April 8
Source: IBGE/CONAB
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Met
ric T
ons
Per H
ecta
re (m
T/ha
)
Mato Grosso*2nd Crop Corn Yields
Observed Predicted
2013: Above-normal rainfall, then scattered showers in May
2nd crop yield: 5.78 mT/ha (up 13.4%)
April 8
Source: IBGE/CONAB
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Brazil Soybeans
Source: IBGE Brazil
* State-Level Production(as % of total)
Mato GrossoParanaRio Grande do SulGoiasMato Grosso do SulMinas GeraisBahiaSao PauloMaranhaoSanta CatarinaTocantinsOther
30191312
8543222
~2
* 2005 to 2009 Average
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Soybean crop calendar for most of Center-South BrazilPlanting
HarvestingFill
Flower
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Major
Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: IBGE
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
a – Cearab – Rio Grande do Nortec – Paraibad – Pernambucoe – Alagoasf – Sergipeh – Espirito Santoi – Rio de Janeiro
ab
cd
ef
h
i
Para
Amazonas
Rondonia
Roraima
Amapa
Acre
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Elements: Average Temperature, Days >=35°C, Precipitation, Days Between Rainfall
Rio Grande do Sul: Jan, Feb, Mar (r2 = .99)
Estimated yield: 2.54 mT/ha
March Lockup: 2.45 mT/ha
Parana: Dec, Jan, Feb (r2 = .92)
Estimated yield: 2.78 mT/ha
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Perc
cent
(%)
Comparison of Yield Departures From TrendParana versus Mato Grosso do Sul
Pr %Diff MS %Diff
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Parana
MGDS
Precipitation(mm)
Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Precipitation(mm)
Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015
Crop Mask(~50 mm or less)
*Soy: 25% (2009-13)*1st Corn: 34% (2011-13)
* Source: IBGE
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Brazil Corn (First Crop)
Source: IBGE Brazil
* State-Level Production(as % of total)
ParanaMinas Gerais
Rio Grande do SulSanta Catarina
Sao PauloGoiasBahia
Mato GrossoPara
Mato Grosso do SulCeara
SergipeMaranhao
Other States
2317141010
94322211
~4* 2007 to 2009 Average
Major
Corn Production*Average (2007-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: IBGE
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
a – Cearab – Rio Grande do Nortec – Paraibad – Pernambucoe – Alagoasf – Sergipeh – Espirito Santoi – Rio de Janeiro
ab
cd
ef
h
i
Para
Amazonas
Rondonia
Roraima
Amapa
Acre
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil
In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul).
Period of Highest Intensity Plant
Harvest
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Brazil Corn (First Crop)
Major
Corn Production*Average (2011-13)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: IBGE
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
a – Cearab – Rio Grande do Nortec – Paraibad – Pernambucoe – Alagoasf – Sergipeh – Espirito Santoi – Rio de Janeiro
ab
cd
ef
h
i
Para
Amazonas
Rondonia
Roraima
Amapa
Acre
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil
In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul).
Period of Highest Intensity Plant
Harvest
Source: IBGE Brazil
* State-Level Production(as % of total)
Minas GeraisParana
Rio Grande do SulSanta Catarina
Goias Sao Paulo
BahiaMaranhao
PiauiPara
Mato GrossoMato Grosso do Sul
CearaOther States
20201410
995222111
~4* 2011 to 2013 Average
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Other Climate Data / Information
Australia
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: PSD-Online
El Niño
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)Niño Region 3.4
La Niña Neutral / non-Event El Niño
1997/98
2002/03
09/10
06/07
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: PSD-Online
El Niño
1997/98 2002/03 09/1006/07
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board