d9 1 long term charts

8/12/2019 D9 1 Long Term Charts

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Long Term Charts

6/3/2014 Copyrighted by YESFX LTD. 1

YESFX

Technical Analysis Center


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Long Term Charts

The weekly bar chart usually covers a period ofonly six to nine months.

We use monthly charts for longer range trendanalysis and forecasting.

Our analysis of a market, should include someconsideration of how the daily market price is

moving in relation to its long range trendstructure.

The purpose of weekly and monthly charts isto compress price action in such a way that the

time horizon can be greatly expanded andmuch longer time periods can be studied.



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Long Term Charts

The same principles apply :

for the intra day (tic-by-tic)

for day trading purposes

for trend trading the intermediate or long term

trend (weekly, monthly, and yearly charts).



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Long Term Charts

LONG TERM TO SHORT TERM CHARTS

Begin your analysis with the long rang and gradually

work to the near term.

Start with 20 year monthlychart

Continue with the most recent years ( monthlychart)

Then continue with the six months ( weeklychart)

And focus to the three weeks ( dailychart)

If you want now proceed further with intradaychartsThree days time span with hourly chart and 10 minuteschart for breakout purposes.



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Long Term Charts



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Long Term Charts



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Long Term Charts



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Long Term Charts

Long term charts are not meant fortrading purposes.

Are useful in the analytical process tohelp determine the major trend andprice objective.

They are not suitable for the timing ofentry and exit points.

Semi log chart scaling becomes more

valuable when studying long rangeprice trends.



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Long Term Charts

The most striking features of long range

charts is that not only are trends very clearlydefined, but that long range trends often last

for years.

Imagine making a forecast and not having to

change that forecast for several years.

Whatever randomnessdoes exists in price

action is probably a phenomenon of the veryshort term.



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Long Term Charts

FUTURES

CONSTRUCTION OF CONTINUATION CHARTS

The limited life in futures poses some obvious problems

for the technician interested in constructing a long range

chart going back several years.

The answer is the continuation charts.

The simplest method is to link a number of contracts

together to provide continuity.

Always we use the price of the nearest expiring contract.When stops trading, the next in line becomes the nearest

contract and is the one plotted.



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Long Term Charts1. The markets themselves have already made the

necessary adjustments.

If dollar declines => commodities riseIf dollar rises => commodities fall

Declining commodity markets since the 1980sreflect a long period of disinflation.

Should we take the price of gold, which is nowworth less than half of its value in 1980, and adjustit to reflect the lower inflation rate?

2. Price action discounts everything, even inflation.

All financial markets adjust to periods of inflationand deflation and to changes in currency values.



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Long Term ChartsAfter the gold price peak in 1980 we had two decades of low inflation which causedadvance in stock prices. Why adjust the charts again for inflation? Its already beendone.


d9 1 long term charts

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