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Dabur India
Deflation and poor demand impacts sales; “Accumulate”
July 27, 2016
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Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Q1FY17 Result Update
Amnish Aggarwal [email protected] +91‐22‐66322233
Gaurav Jogani [email protected] +91‐22‐66322238
Rating Accumulate
Price Rs308
Target Price Rs312
Implied Upside 1.3%
Sensex 28,024
Nifty 8,616
(Prices as on July 27, 2016)
Trading data
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 540.9
Shares o/s (m) 1,759.1
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 457
Major shareholders
Promoters 68.08%
Foreign 20.96%
Domestic Inst. 4.42%
Public & Other 6.54%
Stock Performance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute (3.4) 29.7 3.8
Relative (9.6) 15.3 2.1
How we differ from Consensus
EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff.
2017 8.0 8.2 ‐2.4
2018 9.1 9.4 ‐2.8
Price Performance(RIC:DABU.BO,BB:DABUR IN)
Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jul‐15
Sep‐15
Nov‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
May‐16
Jul‐16
(Rs)
Dabur Q1 sales have disappointed due to further slowdown in demand, PAN card
issue with wholesalers and price deflation due to heightened competition. We
expect meaningful acceleration in sales growth from H2, given expected benefits of
monsoons and other Govt. initiatives. However, Dabur’s intent to increase
adspends and push sales will cap any meaningful expansion in margins. IBD should
see revival led by expected revival in Namaste and initiatives in Africa. We are
factoring in flattish margins and 14% PAT CAGR over FY16‐18. Dabur remains a
compelling play on recovery in rural demand and growing consumer affinity for
natural products. We value the stock at 33xJune18 EPS and increase target price to
Rs312 (302 earlier). We change our rating to “Accumulate”, given limited upside.
Concall Highlights: 1) Consumer demand has seen further deceleration due to
slowdown in rural demand 2) June has seen sharp reduction in growth as
wholesale and retail channel partners had uncertainty regarding PAN card
requirement for purchases in cash of Rs2lakh and above 3) Competitive intensity
continues to remain high 4) Q1 Sales growth is 1.2% even as promotions have
doubled on YoY basis which is now being netted of from sales as per IND AS 5)
Adspends in Q1 was lower by 10% as Dabur continues to spend more on
promotions; however, adspends are expected to revert to normal levels 6)
Namaste had a flat sales due to currency devaluation and Geo political issues;
however, with currencies now stabilising and localisation of supply in place its
now expected to clock 5‐10% sales growth with 10% margins 7) Juices category
has now achieved back its peak market share in General and Modern trade;
however, enterprise business will need 6‐12 months of recovery time 8)
Toothpaste continues to do well with a 200bps market share gain 9) Hair oils
have witnessed 5% volume growth and gained share, sales declined 3% due to
price deflation 10) OTC sales was impacted due to restructuring of distribution
11) Honey volumes grew 5% despite price based competition from Patanjali.
Key financials (Y/e March) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Revenues (Rs m) 78,272 84,540 95,737 109,348
Growth (%) 10.6 8.0 13.2 14.2
EBITDA (Rs m) 13,164 15,198 16,806 19,311
PAT (Rs m) 10,658 12,527 14,144 16,200
EPS (Rs) 6.1 7.1 8.0 9.1
Growth (%) 15.7 17.4 12.4 14.2
Net DPS (Rs) 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.4
Profitability & Valuation 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
EBITDA margin (%) 16.8 18.0 17.6 17.7
RoE (%) 32.8 31.0 29.6 28.3
RoCE (%) 33.6 33.6 34.2 33.8
EV / sales (x) 7.0 6.5 5.7 5.0
EV / EBITDA (x) 41.5 36.0 32.4 28.2
PE (x) 50.7 43.2 38.4 33.6
P / BV (x) 16.1 13.0 11.1 9.4
Net dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1
Source: Company Data; PL Research
July 27, 2016 2
Dabur India
Exhibit 1: Q1FY17 Results ‐ Consolidated (Rs m): Sales grew only by 1.1%, 130bps margin expansion enables 11.8% Adj. PAT growth
Y/e March Q1FY17 Q1FY16 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY16 FY16
Net Sales 19,284 19,071 1.1 19,840 77,797
Gross Profit 9,909 9,602 3.2 10,156 40,192
% of NS 51.4 50.3 51.2 51.7
Other Expenses 6,421 6,392 0.5 6,004 25,009
% of NS 33.3 33.5 30.3 32.1
EBITDA 3,488 3,210 8.7 4,152 15,183
Margins (%) 18.1 16.8 20.9 19.5
Depreciation 343 325 5.6 358 1,332
Interest 118 118 0.2 132 485
Other Income 610 477 27.8 539 2,172
PBT 3,637 3,244 12.1 4,201 15,538
Tax 701 620 13.1 868 2,999
Tax rate (%) 19.3 19.1 20.7 19.3
Minority interest 8 6 25.8 18 28
Adjusted PAT 2,928 2,618 11.8 3,315 12,512
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Consolidated sales grew by 1.1% to Rs19.28bn led by 4.1% volume growth in
domestic FMCG business. Sales growth was impacted by regulatory uncertainty at
the wholesaler and retailer level, demand slowdown and competitive pressure in
domestic markets and disturbances in Middle East and Africa. Gross margins
expanded 110bps due to benign input costs. EBITDA margins expanded 130bps as
110bps increase in staff costs and 30bps increase in other expenses was neutralised
by decline of 160bps in adspends. EBITDA increased by 8.7% to Rs3.48bn. Adj. PAT
increased 11.8% to Rs2.92bn as tax rate increased by 20bps to 19.3%.
Standalone sales remained flat at Rs12.7bn. 130bps margin expansion and 32.9%
higher other income, coupled with 33.4% lower interest cost, enabled 14.2% Adj.PAT
growth. Dabur launched honey‐based fruit spreads and VOLO sparkling fruit‐based
drinks in a niche market.
International business grew by 6% .Organic international business grew 6.8% led by
25% growth in Egypt, 27.4% in Nepal and 17.5% in Turkey. International business
was impacted by geo‐political issues in the Middle East and North African markets.
Dabur acquired Discaria Trading (PTY) in South Africa for future expansion. Currently,
the company doesn’t have any business operations. International business
contributed to 34% of consolidated sales.
July 27, 2016 3
Dabur India
Exhibit 2: Volume growth impacted by demand slowdown
9.0
10.7
9.0 9.2 8.8 8.7
7.4 8.1 8.1
5.0
‐2.5
7
4.1
(4.0)
(2.0)
‐
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
June
‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
(%)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 3: Slowdown and price deflation impacts sales growth across categories sans Oral care
Sales Growth (%) % of Sales 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY16
Hair Care 24.0 8.4 13.9 12.1 7.4 12.7 9.4 NA NA NA
Hair Oils 20.0 7.1 0 12 7.4 13 14 2 8.2 (3.0)
Shampoos 4.0 15.3 0 12.8 8 11.5 NA NA NA ‐ve
Health Supplements 12.0 21.6 10.1 13.5 13 1.2 9 ‐7.1 N.A 0.0
Oral Care 16.0 8 8.1 11.3 11.6 17.5 18.7 10.5 18.3 11.6
Toothpaste 10.7 11.5 19 0 23.8 28.1 15.5 20.3 12.8
Foods 24.0 21.6 29 11.8 19.6 15.5 2.4 ‐23.7 11.7 4.3
Digestives 6.0 11.3 12.3 11.6 11 1.7 1.6 ‐2.4 6.5 ‐ve
Skin care 5.0 4.4 9.7 4 16.6 5.2 2.2 9.5 N.A N.A
Home Care 6.0 14.7 10.2 16.2 12.1 12 12.4 8.4 19.3 2.0
OTC & Ethicals 7.0 4.4 7.5 8.8 7.7 16.7 10.8 7.5 7.1 ‐ve
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 4: Middle East and Africa impacted by geo‐political issues, SAARC grows by 22% led by Nepal, Hobi posts double‐digit growth
IBD Sales Growth (%) 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17
Organic‐ Constant Currency 18 8.3 3.6 8.8 9.2 8.8 13.3 10.4 6.0
Egypt 28 28 29 21 NA NA 7 27.0 25.0
GCC 21 24 14 22 10 9 10 5.0 N.A
Levant NA NA 17 21 22.2 NA NA NA N.A
Bangladesh NA NA 16 18 7.3 2.7 15.2 8.4 N.A
Nepal NA NA NA NA 14.4 15.3 NA 19.6 27.4
Turkey 22.2 14 8.5 17.5
North America 35
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 27, 2016 5
Dabur India
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e March 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Net Revenue 78,272 84,540 95,737 109,348
Raw Material Expenses 37,201 37,970 43,835 50,351
Gross Profit 41,071 46,570 51,902 58,997
Employee Cost 6,896 7,948 8,594 9,757
Other Expenses 21,012 23,424 26,502 29,929
EBITDA 13,164 15,198 16,806 19,311
Depr. & Amortization 1,150 1,338 1,462 1,635
Net Interest 401 480 252 195
Other Income 1,581 2,192 2,683 3,201
Profit before Tax 13,194 15,572 17,775 20,682
Total Tax 2,509 3,018 3,599 4,447
Profit after Tax 10,685 12,555 14,176 16,235
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 26 27 32 35
Adj. PAT 10,658 12,527 14,144 16,200
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 1,756.5 1,759.1 1,766.5 1,771.5
EPS (Rs.) 6.1 7.1 8.0 9.1
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
C/F from Operations 9,791 14,740 14,265 16,313
C/F from Investing (8,957) (6,280) (7,635) (9,273)
C/F from Financing (3,093) (4,763) (3,553) (4,022)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash (2,259) 3,697 3,077 3,018
Opening Cash 3,132 678 1,786 2,796
Closing Cash 873 4,374 4,862 5,814
FCFF 9,454 10,486 16,933 15,545
FCFE 9,708 11,063 12,521 15,045
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Growth
Revenue (%) 10.6 8.0 13.2 14.2
EBITDA (%) 13.5 15.4 10.6 14.9
PAT (%) 16.5 17.5 12.9 14.5
EPS (%) 15.7 17.4 12.4 14.2
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.8 18.0 17.6 17.7
PAT Margin (%) 13.6 14.8 14.8 14.8
RoCE (%) 33.6 33.6 34.2 33.8
RoE (%) 32.8 31.0 29.6 28.3
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity 0.2 0.1 — —
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) 21 12 17 18
Valuation
PER (x) 50.7 43.2 38.4 33.6
P / B (x) 16.1 13.0 11.1 9.4
EV / EBITDA (x) 41.5 36.0 32.4 28.2
EV / Sales (x) 7.0 6.5 5.7 5.0
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 19.0 19.4 20.3 21.5
Other Inc / PBT 12.0 14.1 15.1 15.5
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.2
FCFE / PAT 91.1 88.3 90.6 93.2
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Shareholder's Funds 33,541 41,601 48,763 57,755
Total Debt 7,336 7,912 3,500 3,000
Other Liabilities 769 982 953 1,059
Total Liabilities 41,646 50,495 53,216 61,815
Net Fixed Assets 19,274 19,946 20,156 20,521
Goodwill — — — —
Investments 20,217 25,239 30,485 37,758
Net Current Assets 2,155 5,310 2,575 3,536
Cash & Equivalents 678 2,204 2,796 3,467
Other Current Assets 20,894 23,816 25,322 28,916
Current Liabilities 19,417 20,710 25,544 28,848
Other Assets — — — —
Total Assets 41,646 50,494 53,216 61,815
Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17
Net Revenue 20,962 21,270 19,840 19,284
EBITDA 4,045 3,782 4,152 3,488
% of revenue 19.3 17.8 20.9 18.1
Depr. & Amortization 329 323 358 343
Net Interest 124 109 132 118
Other Income 547 604 539 610
Profit before Tax 4,140 3,954 4,201 3,637
Total Tax 728 766 868 701
Profit after Tax 3,411 3,185 3,179 3,130
Adj. PAT 3,411 3,185 3,315 2,928
Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Standalone
Sales growth % 11.5 6.7 13.5 13.6
EBITDA growth % 13.7 13.7 14.7 14.0
Adj. PAT 7,865 9,091 10,233 11,617
Adj. PAT growth % 16.9 15.6 12.6 13.5
EPS 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.6
Subsidaries
Sales growth % 8.6 8.2 15.6 15.6
EBITDA growth % 12.3 17.2 24.1 19.9
Adj. PAT 2,942 3,306 4,169 5,041
Adj. PAT growth % 14.3 12.4 26.1 20.9
EPS 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.8
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
July 27, 2016 6
Dabur India
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
36.5%
47.8%
15.7%
0.0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month
Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
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