Futu

re a

sses

smen

ts o

f tem

pera

ture

an

d pr

ecip

itatio

n ex

trem

es

in th

e M

edite

rran

ean

area

Elke

Her

tig, J

ucun

dus

Jaco

beit

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

g (G

erm

any)

KLI

WEX

-MED

pro

ject

: C

limat

ech

ange

and

extr

eme

even

tsin

the

Med

iterr

anea

nar

eafu

nded

byth

eG

erm

an

Res

earc

h Fo

unda

tion

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Clim

ate

chan

ge h

ot-s

pots

Gio

rgi2

006

(Geo

phys

. Res

. Let

t.)

Dat

a Loca

tion

of s

tatio

nda

tain

the

Med

iterr

anea

nar

ea

min

imum

tem

pera

ture

: 72

stat

ions

max

imum

tem

pera

ture

: 75

stat

ions

prec

ipita

tion:

79

stat

ions

prec

ipita

tion

+ te

mpe

ratu

repr

ecip

itatio

nte

mpe

ratu

re

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dat

aSt

atio

n da

ta:

1.G

LOW

A J

R (G

loba

l Cha

nge

and

the

Hyd

rolo

gica

l Cyc

le, J

orda

n R

iver

)2.

EMU

LATE

(Eur

opea

n an

d N

orth

Atla

ntic

dai

ly to

MU

Ltid

ecad

alcl

imA

TEva

riabi

lity,

Mob

erg

and

Jone

s 20

05; A

nsel

l 200

6)3.

ECA

&D

(Eur

opea

n C

limat

e A

sses

smen

t & D

atas

et, K

lein

Tan

k et

al.

2002

; van

Eng

elen

et a

l. 20

08)

4.M

edC

LIVA

R(E

lena

Xop

laki

,Uni

vers

ity o

f Ber

n/C

ypru

s In

st.)

Grid

ded

data

:E-

obs

Dat

aset

, ver

sion

2.0

(Hay

lock

et a

l. 20

08)

time

perio

d: 1

950-

2006

, hor

izon

tal r

esol

utio

n: 0

.25°

x 0.

25°

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dat

a

Extr

emes

indi

ces:

5th

perc

entil

eof

dai

lym

inim

umte

mpe

ratu

re95

thpe

rcen

tile

of d

aily

max

imum

tem

pera

ture

95th

perc

entil

eof

dai

lypr

ecip

itatio

nam

ount

foro

verla

ppin

g2-

mon

th p

erio

ds(J

an/F

eb, F

eb/M

ar, .

..)fo

rcon

vent

iona

lsea

sons

(Dec

/Jan

/Feb

, Mar

/Apr

/May

, ...)

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dat

aLa

rge-

scal

e at

mos

pher

ic p

redi

ctor

s:N

CE

P/N

CA

R-r

eana

lysi

stim

e pe

riod:

1950

-200

6ho

rizon

tal r

esol

utio

n:2.

5°va

riabl

es:

sea

leve

lpre

ssur

ege

opot

entia

lhei

ghts

of th

e50

0hP

a le

vel

+ fo

rlin

ks w

ithte

mpe

ratu

reex

trem

es:

tem

pera

ture

of th

e85

0hP

a le

vel

1000

hPa/

500h

Pa

thic

knes

sre

lativ

e hu

mid

ityof

the

700h

Pa

leve

l+

forl

inks

with

prec

ipita

tion

extr

emes

:sp

ecifi

chu

mid

ityof

the

850h

Pa

leve

lre

lativ

e vo

rtici

tyof

the

1000

hPa

leve

l

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dat

a

larg

e-sc

ale

and

regi

onal

dom

ains

40°

30°

20°

10°

0°10

°20

°30

°40

°50

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°45

°50

°55

°60

°65

°70

°

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dat

aC

limat

e m

odel

s:•E

CH

AM

5/M

PI-O

M•H

adC

M3

•PC

M

Scen

ario

s:•A

1B•B

1 tota

l of 1

4 ru

ns(in

clud

ing

seve

rale

nsem

ble

mem

bers

)

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Dow

nsca

ling

by re

gres

sion

mod

els

SLP

500h

Pa g

eop.

hei

ghts

thic

knes

svo

rtic

ityhu

mid

ity

s-m

ode

prin

cipa

lcom

pone

ntan

alys

estim

e se

ries

of

tem

pera

ture

and

prec

ipita

tion

extr

emes

time

coef

ficie

nts

of p

rinci

palc

omp.

mul

tiple

re

gres

sion

calib

ratio

npe

riod

1

mul

tiple

re

gres

sion

calib

r. 2

mul

tiple

re

gres

sion

calib

r. 3

mul

tiple

re

gres

sion

calib

r. 4

mul

tiple

re

gres

sion

calib

r. 5

verif

icat

ion

(RV-

valu

e, c

orre

latio

nco

eff.)

asse

ssm

ents

fort

hefu

ture

stat

istic

alm

odel

ense

mbl

es

fixed

pred

icto

rset

s

step

wis

em

ultip

le re

gres

sion

s(1

000

itera

tions

)

...

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of T

empe

ratu

re E

xtre

mes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –(1

961-

1990

)EC

HA

M5

pred

icto

rs: 5

00 h

Page

op. h

eigh

ts, 1

000/

500

hPa

thic

knes

s

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of T

empe

ratu

re E

xtre

mes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –

(196

1-19

90)

addi

tiona

lly: d

owns

calin

g to

E-o

bsgr

id b

y C

CA

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

year

333435363738

°C

323334353637

ECH

AM

5- S

RE

SA

1B- R

UN

1EC

HA

M5-

SR

ES

A1B

- RU

N2

ECH

AM

5- S

RE

SA

1B- R

UN

3EC

HA

M5-

SR

ES

A1B

- RU

N4

Had

CM

3- S

RE

SA

1B- R

UN

1EC

HAM

5- S

RE

SB1-

RU

N1

ECH

AM5-

SR

ESB

1- R

UN

2EC

HAM

5- S

RE

SB1-

RU

N3

Had

CM

3- S

RE

SB

1- R

UN

1

Lisb

on, P

ortu

gal

95th

-per

cent

ile m

axim

um te

mpe

ratu

re J

une-

Aug

ust

Pre

dict

ors:

100

0hP

a-50

0hP

a- th

ickn

ess

+ 50

0hPa

- geo

pote

ntia

l hei

ghts

SR

ES A

1B

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

year

293031323334353637

°C

293031323334353637

Jeru

sale

m, I

srae

l95

th-p

erce

ntile

max

imum

tem

pera

ture

Jun

e-A

ugus

tP

redi

ctor

s: 1

000h

Pa-

500h

Pa-

thic

knes

s +

500h

Pa-

geo

pote

ntia

l hei

ghts

SR

ES

A1B

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

year

333435363738

°C

323334353637

Lisb

on, P

ortu

gal

95th

-per

cent

ile m

axim

um te

mpe

ratu

re J

une-

Aug

ust

Pre

dict

ors:

100

0hPa

-500

hPa-

thic

knes

s +

500h

Pa-

geo

pote

ntia

l hei

ghts

SR

ES

B1

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

year

293031323334353637

°C

293031323334353637

Jeru

sale

m, I

srae

l95

th-p

erce

ntile

max

imum

tem

pera

ture

Jun

e-A

ugus

tP

redi

ctor

s: 1

000h

Pa-5

00hP

a- th

ickn

ess

+ 50

0hP

a- g

eopo

tent

ial h

eigh

tsS

RE

S B

1

Her

tig, S

eube

rt&

Jac

obei

t201

0 (N

HES

S)

Lisb

on

Jeru

sale

m

A1B

B1

95th

perc

entil

eof

max

. tem

pera

ture

sJJ

A 2

000-

2100

fr

omdo

wns

calin

gof

out

putf

rom

diffe

rent

CG

CM

runs

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of P

reci

pita

tion

Extr

emes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –

(196

1-19

90)

ECH

AM

5 pr

edic

tors

: 500

hPa

geop

. hei

ghts

, 850

hPa

spec

ific

hum

idity

,10

00 h

Pare

lativ

e vo

rtic

itydo

wns

calin

g to

E-o

bsgr

id b

y C

CA

10°

5°0°

5°10

°15

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°

30°

35°

40°

45°

95th

-Per

cent

ile P

reci

pita

tion

Aut

umn

(Sep

/Oct

)

-4-3

.5-3

-2.5

-2-1

.5-1

-0.5

00.

51

1.5

22.

53

3.5

4mm

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of P

reci

pita

tion

Extr

emes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –

(196

1-19

90)

-4-3

.5-3

-2.5

-2-1

.5-1

-0.5

00.

51

1.5

22.

53

3.5

4mm

10°

5°0°

5°10

°15

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°

30°

35°

40°

45°

95th

-Per

cent

ile P

reci

pita

tion

Win

ter

(Dec

/Jan

)

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of P

reci

pita

tion

Extr

emes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –

(196

1-19

90)

-4-3

.5-3

-2.5

-2-1

.5-1

-0.5

00.

51

1.5

22.

53

3.5

4mm

10°

5°0°

5°10

°15

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°

30°

35°

40°

45°

95th

-Per

cent

ile P

reci

pita

tion

Spr

ing

(Apr

/May

)

Estim

ated

Cha

nges

of P

reci

pita

tion

Extr

emes

(A1B

sce

nario

)(2

071-

2100

) –

(196

1-19

90)

-4-3

.5-3

-2.5

-2-1

.5-1

-0.5

00.

51

1.5

22.

53

3.5

4mm

10°

5°0°

5°10

°15

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°

30°

35°

40°

45°

95th

-Per

cent

ile P

reci

pita

tion

Sum

mer

(Ju

ne/J

uly)

Con

clus

ions

For e

xtre

me

prec

ipita

tion:

sig

nals

of c

hang

est

rong

esti

n w

inte

r, w

eake

stin

sum

mer

Bot

hsi

gns

of c

hang

esfo

rext

rem

e pr

ecip

itatio

nw

ithne

gativ

e (p

ositi

ve) c

hang

espr

edom

inat

ing

in w

este

rly(e

aste

rly) r

egio

ns,

mai

nly

durin

gau

tum

nan

d w

inte

r

Espe

cial

lyin

the

east

ern

Med

iterr

anea

nre

gion

s:

incr

ease

in m

inim

umte

mpe

ratu

res

durin

gw

inte

rstr

onge

rth

anin

crea

sein

max

imum

tem

pera

ture

sdu

ring

sum

mer

intr

a-an

nual

extr

eme

tem

pera

ture

rang

ede

crea

sing

Con

side

rabl

eno

n-st

atio

narit

ies

in th

epr

edic

tor-

pred

icta

ndre

latio

nshi

ps

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Out

look

•Im

plem

enta

tion

of fu

rthe

rpre

dict

ors

(e.g

. moi

stur

eflu

x,

st

abili

tyin

dex,

SST

, soi

lmoi

stur

e, s

now

cove

r)

•Q

uant

ifica

tion

of u

ncer

tain

ties

by c

onsi

derin

g m

ulti-

mod

el

ense

mbl

e ru

ns, d

iffer

ent e

mis

sion

sce

nario

s an

d th

e

rang

e of

ass

essm

ents

giv

en b

y st

atis

tical

mod

el e

nsem

bles

•In

clus

ion

of fu

rthe

r sta

tistic

al te

chni

ques

(e.g

. syn

optic

dow

nsca

ling,

a

com

bina

tion

of th

e la

tter w

ith d

iffer

ent t

rans

fer f

unct

ions

)

•C

ompa

rison

with

resu

lts fr

om re

gion

al c

limat

e m

odel

sim

ulat

ions

(d

ynam

ical

dow

nsca

ling)

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010

-20-

18-1

6-14

-12-

10-8

-6-4

-20

24

68

1012

1416

1820

15°

10°

5°0°

5°10

°15

°20

°25

°30

°35

°40

°

30°

35°

40°

45°

95th

Per

cent

ile P

reci

pita

tion

A

1B

W

inte

r (20

21-2

050)

- (

1961

-199

0)

Uni

vers

ity o

fW

ürzb

urg

Futu

re a

sses

smen

ts o

f tem

pera

ture

an

d pr

ecip

itatio

n ex

trem

es

in th

e M

edite

rran

ean

area

Elke

Her

tig, J

ucun

dus

Jaco

beit

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

g (G

erm

any)

KLI

WEX

-MED

pro

ject

: C

limat

ech

ange

and

extr

eme

even

tsin

the

Med

iterr

anea

nar

eafu

nded

byth

eG

erm

an

Res

earc

h Fo

unda

tion

Inst

itute

of G

eogr

aphy

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Aug

sbur

gD

AC

H 2

010