dagmar schröter - pik research portal · introduction to the vulnerability concept dagmar...
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Introduction to the vulnerability concept
Dagmar Schröter
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����Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Uta Fritsch and her daughter������������
– born September 5th 2003.
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1 The elements of vulnerability– Objective– Vulnerable? Who, to what?– Exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity– Stakeholder dialogue– Integration
<break>2 Framework for vulnerability assessment
– Five criteria to satisfy– An eight step approach
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Vulnerability = f(Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)
������������ is the likelihood of a ������ to experience harm due to ���������to perturbations.
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ecosystem
ecosystem
humansector
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humansector
humansectorhuman
sector
humansector
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��������
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!������ ���!�� �������
� �������
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Human-environmentsystem
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food production tourist attraction
pollination
carbon sequestrationflood protection
water storage
slope stability
biodiversity
recreation
beauty
fibre production
fodder production
stabilising micro-climate
fire prevention
shelter for life stockgame reserve
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�� �����#�!�������!������������������������������
• to inform the decision-making of ���%��������about options for �������! to the effects of !������ ���!�
→ facilitate sustainable development
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�������� & �����������������• Atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration
changes (e.g. CO2, methane, soot, water vapour)• Climatic change (e.g. temperature rise, change in
precipitation pattern)• Sea-level rise• Pollution (e.g. deposition of nitrogen, phosphorus,
sulphur)• Land use change (e.g. abandonment of land)• Socio-economic change (e.g. population growth,
lifestyle changes, demand changes, markets & welfare)
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���������� �������������������%���$• degree and rate of change• degree and rate of variation • extreme events: severity,
frequency, time of occurence
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
�����
�������������� ����
Temperature Change (°C)
Europe, 4 GCMs, 4 SRESrelative to 1961-1990
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'���()��*�+���������� � � �������
Emph
asis
on
sust
aina
bilit
y an
d eq
uity
Emph
asis
on
mat
eria
l wea
lthComplete globalisation
Strong regionalisation
�,!,�����!�����
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�������� ���!��� ������ &�����������
Regional variability. Comparison of different climate models (GCMs).
Anomaly2091-2100 vs. 1991-2000
(SRES A2)
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1990 2020
A2, GCM1
B1, GCM1
B2, GCM1
A1F, GCM2
natvar, GCM1
A1F, GCM1
A2, GCM2
B1, GCM2
B2, GCM2���
���
���
2050
A2, GCM1
B1, GCM1
B2, GCM1
A1F, GCM2
natvar, GCM1
A1F, GCM1
A2, GCM2
B1, GCM2
B2, GCM2���
���
���
���
2100
A2, GCM1
B1, GCM1
B2, GCM1
A1F, GCM2
natvar, GCM1
A1F, GCM1
A2, GCM2
B1, GCM2
B2, GCM2
���
���
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Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptation
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���������� & ����������� ����The degree to which a human-environment system
is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by global change.
– Water sector– Agricultural sector: Food resources
(e.g. quality, quantity, security)– Human health sector– Biodiversity– Beauty (cultural, natural)– etc...
Translating exposure and sensitivity into impacts: ����������������������� �������������
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��������� )�� ��������� ���!��-��*�.
2001, IMAGE 2.2, www.rivm.nl/ieweb
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�����������→ ����!�� �������������/�
2001, IMAGE 2.2, www.rivm.nl/ieweb
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�������� ����
high low
Driven by climate, CO2 concentration and land use change
� ������������ ��,!,��������!�
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Exposure
Adaptation
Sensitivity
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������������ ��� & ���������� ����
The ability to implement planned adaptation measures.
)�������������������The result of a ������������� ����� based on an ��������� that conditions have changed or are about to ���!� and that � ����������0����� to return to, maintain or achieve a desired state.
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�������� ��� ���
• Knowledge – Awareness– Understanding
• Will – Trust– Motivation– Values– Urgency
• Power – Freedom– Equity– Technology– Wealth
CountriesProvincesCitiesVillagesSectorsGroups Individuals
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����� & ��!�������������� ��� ���
�� ���� �������� �����• quantitative• spatially explicit (NUTS2, provinces)• SRES based
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low high
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���%��������7����!��
"������%�������%��������$• To identify ��������������������
(e.g. of ecosystem services) and indicators• To learn about useful ���������and
��������� ����• To learn about their ������������� and the
determinants and boundaries of adaptive capacity• To discuss ������ ����� between sectors• To facilitate ����������������!�����, to
improve our ������ ���!����, to raise ��������� of our results
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• Should allow for ��������������• Should allow ���������������!���������� �������
• Scale: low, medium, high • Are �� ���*�������� ��� �(e.g. may be different for
agricultural consumers and suppliers)• Should be ����������� to scientists and non-
scientists
���������������������� (���!������
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������� ���� 9�������������� �
• ��������� Multiple scenarios of global change, ������������������ (Climate, Atmospheric Comp., Land use, N deposition)
• ���������� of the human-environment system: models, e.g. to estimate ���!������� ������������ ��
• ������� ��� �����indicators of people's knowledge, will and power to innovate
• ���%�������������!��: reality check with users, social learning
• Integration into ����������������������that allow for causal analysis, comparison of regions and scenarios
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����� Stakeholder Dialogue����������9:�9;#�:<<:#�)������
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�����������������������
���������$�"��#��������$• Vulnerability of the human-environment system to
global change5�����������• to inform the decision-making of stakeholders about
options for adapting to the effects of global change
Success is measured by � ������� �������� of results and �����������������%��������. �������������������������������� ������������ � ����� ����������������� ���� ��� � ����� � ���
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1��� ������� ����������
1. should have a knowledge base from various disciplines and stakeholder participation
2. be place-based3. consider multiple interacting stresses 4. examine differential adaptive capacity5. be prospective as well as historical
������������������������(rooted in ������������������ �����������������
��������� ������� ��)
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�����!������� ������ ����������������������������
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Define study area together with stakeholders
1
• Place-based (rather than generic for a whole country)
• Involve stakeholders from the start
• Be aware of the nesting of scalesglobal
regional
local
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Get to know place over time2
• Develop knowledge on stakeholders and system, ecosystem services, drivers
• Options for action: Which drivers lie inside, which outside influence?
• Awareness of previous studies
• Spend time in the area, with people (������������� �� ������������������ ��� ��� ��������
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Hypothesize who is vulnerable to what
3
• 1� �� by hypothesizing: which stresses pose a risk to which people
• Don' t try to analyse too much
• Transparency of criteria for focus:
!"���������������������� � ���������������������������������������� ��������� �����!
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Develop a causal model of vulnerability
4
Change in precipitation pattern
Irrigation
Soil qualityWell-being of farmer
Crop yield & quality
Choice of crop type
Agricultural policy and subsedies
Demand and price on market
Information
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Find indicators for the elements of vulnerability
5
• Develop set of indicators for exposure, sensitivityand adaptive capacity
• There is no universally applicable metric for vulnerability
• Transparency: missing or problematic indicators
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Operationalize model(s) of vulnerability
6
• Numerical model(s), e.g. ecosystem models for sensitivity, socio-economic models for adaptive capacity
• Models should be spatially explicit and handle timeseries data
• Models should be validated (phoooey!)
• (���!������������������������: weight and combine indicators
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• V = f (E, S, AC) – Quantitative information, projections of indicators– Qualitative information (stakeholder dialogue)
• Overlaying of indicator maps
• Causal model → trends in indicators → qualitative differential equations
• ....<void>...
������ �
(���!����������� ������������
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Project future vulnerability7
• Run model(s) with multiple scenarios of driving variables
• Projections should correspond to time horizon of decision making of stakeholders
• Stakeholders influence scenario development(targeted if-then-analysis)
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�������� ����
�������������� �������������
www.pik-potsdam.de/ateam
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Communicate vulnerability creatively8
• #� �� �������������������: continuous, long-term dialogue
• Two-way flow of information, interactive tools, social learning
• Communicate uncertainty openly, provide guidance on understanding of probabilities
• Development of learning mechanisms ($� ������������ ����������)
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2
7
6
5
3
4
1
8
'������#� ��������� ����#�!���� %��������������������������
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Common framework, "Public good"%����� ��� ��������������� �������� ���
• ATEAM, AVEC and EVAwww.pik-potsdam.de/ateam (resp. avec, eva)
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) www.millenniumassessment.org
• IPCC / SRES www.ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/www.sres.ciesin.columbia.edu/tgcia
• Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability (RASSP)http://sust.harvard.edu
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�������• Vulnerability is the ��%��������������� of the ������
����������������� due to global change• Vulnerability = f(Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)• General aim: to ������������� ��������%��!�������%��������
about options for �������! to the effects of �����������• Assessing vulnerability: �������� ������������� and ����������
�����!�����������%��������• Exposure: �����������������#��� ��������#����������� �������• Sensitivity: ���������������� ������������ ��• Adaptive capacity: ������������ ���#�������#� ������• Estimates of vulnerability will be wrong: caution, flexibility,
learning mechanisms
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������� ���� :<<;#�������������������=��� ����/!��#��>�%��?�����#������������ �!��
2������#�"���!��!�������#�+�%�2������#�+� �����3����#�2������� � ������� ���%#�
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Common framework, "Public good"%����� ��� ��������������� �������� ���
• ATEAM, AVEC and EVAwww.pik-potsdam.de/ateam (resp. avec, eva)
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)www.millenniumassessment.org
• IPCC / SRES www.ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/www.sres.ciesin.columbia.edu/tgcia
• Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability (RASSP)http://sust.harvard.edu