Texas Fire Potential Update for July 9th Through July 15th

• Rainfall activity from this past week has improved fuel moistures and herbaceous greenness in the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and Central Texas south of Killeen. Green grasses in these areas will take two weeks of summer heat to wilt.

• Rainfall activity from this past week has not provided the necessary amounts and duration in the Rolling Plains, Cross Timbers, and North Texas to do more than temporarily increase fuel moistures. Once the heat returns on Wednesday, it will only take 3-4 days before litter fuels will once again support initial attack activity.

June 15th-July 8th Daily TFS Wildfire Response by PSA

Expect initial attack activity to gradually increase during the last half of the week in the Rolling Plains, Cross Timbers and North Texas.

Amounts over 1 inch should provide enough moisture to restart herbaceous greening and wet up the litter fuels. Fresh green up takes about two weeks to wilt with summer temperatures and no rain. Litter fuels can become receptive after 7

days with typical summer weather. Areas receiving less than an inch that are also running rainfall deficits will only see temporary improvement.

7 Day 14 Day

July 5th July 8th

30 day percent of normal trends over the past 4 days show there has been a reduction in deficits in the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains. 25% of normal deficits have actually expanded in the Rolling Plains

and Cross Timbers.

Seasonal ERC Trends

0 PSA at 90th 1 PSA above normal 1 PSA near normal 12 PSA below normal

http://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/PredictiveServices/Fuels/erc_map.htm

1000 hour FM trends outline a similar footprint for the driest areas shifting into the north central regions of the state.

100 hour FM indicates litter fuels have gained moisture over the last 6 days. This moisture gain and the ongoing moist fire weather has greatly reduced initial attack activity. The heat and moderate to high drying potential will return later

this week. Hundred hour moistures will start trending down on Wednesday in north central Texas regions.

Critically dry fuels have retreated over the last 6 days. Expect dry fuels to expand in north central regions later this week. Southern regions showing above normal moisture will require up to two weeks to regain the dry level.

10thLive canopy moistures provide guidance for crown fire potential. This picture shows the aftermath of crown fire on the Surprise fire which agrees with the the low canopy moisture measured in the nearby Juniper last week. Fuel sample and photo submitted by Rich Gray.

https://www.wfas.net/nfmd/public/states_map.php?state=TX

A familiar summer weather pattern will return to Texas the last half of the week. Temperatures will increase and should reach triple digits by Friday. Rainfall will trend down and will mostly be absent by the weekend. This normal summer weather will restart the drying process. Areas in North Central Texas will not take as long to reach previous dryness levels as they generally did

not see 7 day rain amounts greater than one inch.

Weekend Rainfall ForecastFriday High Temps Friday Minimum RH

Fire Potential July 9th – July 11th

• Drying potential under the easterly flow will be low again today and remain low through Tuesday. Moderate drying potential returns Wednesday to north central Texas and increases over the weekend.

• Initial attack potential will be low through Tuesday with elevated surface moisture and some shower activity. Expect a gradual increase of initial attack activity for the last half of the week in north central Texas as surface litter fuels begin to dry.

• Fuel Dryness should see a fairly quick rebound to dry levels in the Rolling Plains and North Texas when the heat returns later in the week.